media consumption trends and opportunities for networked entertainment solutions sony corporate...
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Media Consumption Trends and Opportunities for Networked Entertainment Solutions
Sony Corporate DevelopmentSeptember 30, 2010
agenda /
key entertainment industry MRP topics
• analyze the key trends impacting the profitability and growth of Sony’s entertainment businesses
– shift from ownership to rental business models and from bundled content to disaggregated content
– new business models emerging due to proliferation of new access methods and the availability of cloud storage
– continued vulnerability of content to piracy
Sony’s opportunity
• address Sony’s opportunity to provide consumers with a complete networked entertainment solution across a family of home and mobile connected products
• need to treat consumer base as network of users
2
2010 global media revenue mix and growth forecast /Global media1 revenues by segmentsegment, percent of total
TV licensing fees2
Internet adv.
Video games
TV adv.
Out-of-home adv.
Filmed entertainment
Total media
Music publishing
Radio
Book publishing
Newspaper publishing
Magazine publishing
Recorded music
Global media1 2010-2014 CAGR by segmentpercent
(1) Market definition does not include internet access, B2B, or TV subscriptions and public TV segments(2) TV licensing fees include mobile tv, ppv, and video on demandSource: PwC, Global entertainment and media outlook: 2010 – 2014, Enders Music Publishing Forecast
Total Revenueapprox. $800B
3
Key entertainment industry MRP topics /4
entertainment industry trends impacting Sony /
5
there are three key trends that are impacting the profitability and growth of Sony’s entertainment businesses
shift from ownership to rental and from bundled content to disaggregated content
new business models emerging due to proliferation of new access methods and the availability of cloud storage
continued vulnerability of content to piracy
evolution of filmed entertainment consumption /as digital consumption increasingly displaces physical…
6
content bundles are
being disaggregat
ed
ownership is
shifting to rental
evolution of music consumption /as digital consumption increasingly displaces physical…
7
albums have been
disaggregated to single
tracks
shift from ownership to access
evolution of the changing economics of entertainment /
CDs
MP3 downloadsof singles (iTunes)
local storage: load
from PC to player
subscriptionmusic1
digital lockers1
streaming music on demand (Spotify)
continuum of music
consumption
new physicalbusiness models: Redbox & Netflix
VOD and SVODVHS / DVD
PPVin limited
window and show times
continuum of filmed
entertainmentconsumption2
digital sell through
local storage: load
from PC to player
$19.95 / album
$0.99 / single
$9.95 / month
“freemium”mostly free content
with a charge for premium content
VHS & DVD: $19.95 / $4.75
purchase/rentalPPV: $7.95
Redbox: $1.00/night
Netflix: $8.99+/month
iTunes: $3.99 (TV), $9.99 - 14.99 (Film)
Amazon: $2.99 (TV), $4.99 - $14.99 (Film)
VOD: $3.95 / 24hiTunes: $0.99 (TV)$3.99 / 24h (Film)Netflix: $8.99+ /
monthHulu Plus: $9.99 /
month
digital rental
internet radio (Pandora)
(1) Subscription music and digital lockers, while introduced a number of years ago, has yet to achieve widespread consumer acceptance(2) This evolution relates primarily to the home entertainment portion of filmed entertainment
8
in the U.S. Home Entertainment market, while there was an overall increase in transactional demand, consumers continued to “trade down” to lower-margin rentals
Source: Screen Digest Aug 2010, Morgan Stanley Research
growing demand for low cost views is being met by new, more convenient rental options (e.g. Netflix and Redbox), driving
consumer spending out of the categoryNote:Netflix does not include digital streaming as Netflix licenses that content from the pay window
consumers are shifting to lower-margin rentals /
9
783 717
2,364
126 138357 418
2,296
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
2,400
2,800
3,200
3,600
4,000
CY2009 CY2010E
% Growth
% Growth
0%0%
+3%+3%
-8%-8%
2009 – 2010E home video sell-through and rental transactions
$17.36
$11.64
$13.00
$0.95$1.15$1.68$2.71
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
$18
$20
Blu-ray
DVD EST
VOD
Bloc
kbus
ter
Netflix
Redb
ox
Rental
Sell through
average studio new release gross profit per transaction
8 Rental Transactions = 1 Sell-Through
Transaction
Physical ST Physical Rental EST VOD
+17%+17%
+10%+10%+15%+15%
+2%+2%
shifts in the consumption of music are challenging conventional digital economics /for the first time since their inception, the number of single-track digital downloads has decreased in the United StatesUS single-track digital downloads growth rate
percent
gro
wth
rate
Source: Nielsen Soundscan Report
10
the shift from ownership to access has continued to impact recorded music margins /
Sony Music
Sony/ATV
Sony Music revenues$B
Sony Music EBIT margins%
Sony/ATV revenues$M
Sony/ATV EBIT margins%
MRP
MRP
MRP
MRP 11
2010A2011B 2012 2013 20140.0%
4.0%
8.0%
12.0%
16.0%
10.2%1
14.1% 14.2% 14.4% 14.5%
2010A 2011B 2012 2013 2014 $-
$1.0
$2.0
$3.0
$4.0 $3.3
$2.8 $2.7 $2.6 $2.6
(1) Revenues and EBIT adjusted by removing revenue/contribution from settlements
new access models address piracy while adding potential vulnerabilities /
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digital lockers(music)
issues potentially exist with the uploading of illegitimate music content in exchange for
legitimate copies in the digital locker
digital cinemadistribution of digital copies of feature films to exhibitors creates new vulnerability, but digital distribution has not resulted in increased piracy
the market for content in developing countries is growing but is often made unattractive by the high level of piracy
early window
prior to DVD release, consumers can create a camcorder recording of a feature film in their
own homes; forensic watermarking may mitigate this type of piracy
while new access models promote legitimate consumption, thereby reducing incentives for piracy, these new access models may also create new risks
Sony’s opportunity /13
Sony’s opportunity /
for the first time, we now have the hardware functionality and service offerings to generate revenue from
our home electronics consumer beyond the point of purchase
14
Sony’s IPTV services are already in the living room /
15
must convince consumers, who already face box exhaustion, to
buy another box to bring internet-based entertainment
experiences to TV
rich IPTV services are already embedded in the Sony products that consumers use every day in
their homes
Competition Sony
Sony’s IPTV services are already in the living room /
16
must convince consumers, who already face box exhaustion, to
buy another box to bring internet-based entertainment
experiences to TV
rich IPTV services are already embedded in the Sony products that consumers use every day in
their homes
Competition Sony
Sony’s services are optimized for its products /
17
other service providers (e.g. Netflix, Amazon) face the challenge of
integrating with multiple third party electronics manufacturers
services are optimized for its products to create the best
consumer experience
Competition Sony
only Sony can utilize its own content to create unique viewing experiences for its consumers /
18
Competition Sonyother services must license
content that is freely available to all competitors
from the major film studios and music companies
can offer unique, high quality experiences on a consistent
basisthat are only available to Sony
customers2008
one-time special event
2011
competitive snapshot /
19
already in consumers’ living
rooms
can offer unique viewing
experiences utilizing its own
content
offer leading edge services optimized for its products and
ecosystem
Sony needs to assess “snap-on” acquisitions to remain competitive /
20
offer leading edge services optimized for its products and
ecosystem
In order to remain competitive and to
rapidly enhance Qriocity’s capabilities, we need to evaluate
acquisitionsPotential candidates
the evolution of the TV viewing experience /
21
True IPTVConventional TVGoogle TV
(browser experience)
Evolution of Internet-Connected TV
2000 2010 FutureCable Bill:
$100 (video) +internet access
Cable Bill: $85 (video) +
internet access
Cable Bill: internet access +
$? (video)
• 100% of entertainment services provided by conventional distributors
• most entertainment provided by conventional distributors
• some incremental revenue from apps or content provided using IP
• even larger percentage of entertainment provided using IP, not by conventional distributors
• bulk of conventional distributor revenue from providing internet access
the future of TV is interactive and social /
22
• uses the internet to deliver video entertainment outside of conventional operators
sorting of content choices
based on popularity
among friends and
previous behavior
deep integration with social
networking (on-screen chat and recommendatio
ns, etc)
targeted marketing
a true IPTV experience is not simply an internet browsing experience on a television:
• over time consumers will migrate from cable / satellite to IPTV solutions because of greater choice, interactivity, community, and value
customer profitability enhanced by continuing transactional relationship after hardware purchase /
23
• potential incremental revenue-generating services
– access to films in variouswindows
– channel subscriptions
– games / PS2 emulation
– advertising / placement
– monetization of consumer data
– applications / e-retail / peripherals
– music related purchases(video purchasing, concerts)
– extended warranty• potential incremental
annual revenue from above services: $50
illustrative potential profit from services
note: assumes MSRP for TV is $1,000 and profit margin is 5%; for services, assumes annual revenue of $50 at a 20% margin
Today
Future
Year 0 1 2 3 4Life-time
Hardware Profit $50 $0 $0 $0 $0 $50Profit from Services 0 0 0 0 0 0Total $50 $0 $0 $0 $0 $50Lifetime Margin From One TV Sale 5%
Year 0 1 2 3 4Life-time
Hardware Profit $50 $0 $0 $0 $0 $50Profit from Services 0 10 10 10 10 40Total $50 $10 $10 $10 $10 $90Lifetime Margin From One TV Sale 9%
Sony’s opportunity / • Sony needs to treat its consumer base as a connected network of
addressable users
– across its consumers’ network of enabled devices, Sony maintains relationships with more than 59MM connected users worldwide
– as consumer electronic products become commoditized, Sony now has a significant revenue source in networked products even after sale of hardware
– if we are able to position our consumer base as a network, licensing non-Sony AAA entertainment content will become easier
24
Company
Number of Subscribers
(MM)Comcast 23.4DirecTV 18.7Dish Network 14.3Time Warner Cable 12.8BSkyB 9.9Beijing Gehua 5.0Oriental Cable Network 4.0Jupiter Communications 2.6Sky Deutschland 2.5
Selection of largest cable & satellite operators across the
world
it’s time that we leverage our strategic advantages / • through aggressive marketing
activities (backed by adequate resources), Sony must educate consumers that its Blu-ray players, PS3s and connected TVs have IPTV capabilities
• leverage its content companies to provide unique experiences and preferential windows of content for its Sony consumers
25
over time, consumers will learn that Sony can liberate them from conventional cable and satellite operators while providing them
greater choice, interactivity, and value in home entertainment