Media Papers: A Historical Perspective

Stefano DellaVignaUC Berkeley and NBER

Roundtable on the Economics of the MediaOctober 29, 2011

Introduction

Research on the economics of the media has flourished

What we’d like to know: Where is the field leading?

What we can know: What has worked so far?

Take a historical perspective Use data set of all papers in top-five journals

(AER, QJE, JPE, EMA, REStud) from 1975 to 2010 from Card, DellaVigna, and Malmendier (JEP 2011)

Code papers on the economics of the media Any trends? Which papers are most cited?

DefinitionCode paper on economics of the media if it

contains in title words:News, newspaper, or mediaRadio, TV, television, cable, movie, Internet,

webExclude papers not focused on media such as

auctioning off cards on eBayCategorize whether mainly empirical or

theoretical

Code papers on economics of advertising if it contains in title the word advertising.

35 Years of Media Papers

Question: How many media papers have been published since 1975?

35 Years of Media Papers

Question: How many media papers have been published since 1975? [30]

35 Years of Media Papers

Question: How many media papers have been published since 1975? [30]

Question: How many advertising papers have been published since 1975?

35 Years of Media Papers

Question: How many media papers have been published since 1975? [30]

Question: How many advertising papers have been published since 1975? [33]

35 Years of Media Papers

Question: How many media papers have been published since 1975? [30]

Media papers by journal: QJE – 13 articles AER – 8 articles RES – 4 articles JPE – 3 articles EMA – 2 articles

By method: 23 mainly empirical, 7 mainly theoretical

35 Years of Media Papers

Question: How many advertising papers have been published since 1975? [33]

Advertising papers by journal: QJE – 3 articles AER – 14 articles RES – 5 articles JPE – 8 articles EMA – 3 articles

35 Years of Media Papers

Strong growth over time of media papers: 1.5% of all top-5 articles in ‘05-’10

02

46

Num

ber

pe

r ye

ar

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Year

Number of media papers Number of advertising papers

Count of Media Papers

35 Years of Media Papers: List Year Mo. Journal Author Article Emp.

1977 2 QJE Spence, Michael and Owen, Bruce Television Programming, Monopolistic Competition, and Welfare 01977 2 QJE Beebe, Jack H. Institutional Structure and Program Choices in Television Markets 11979 3 AER Ellickson, Bryan Hedonic Theory and the Demand for Cable Television 11980 7 RES Bradley, Keith and Gelb, Alan Worker Cooperatives as Industrial Policy: The Case of the 'Scottish Daily News'11990 2 QJE Erfle, Stephen and McMillan, Henry Media, Political Pressure, and the Firm: The Case of Petroleum Pricing in the Late 1970s12001 6 AER Chipty, Tasneem Vertical Integration, Market Foreclosure, and Consumer Welfare in the Cable Television Industry12001 8 QJE Berry, Steven T. and Waldfogel, Joel Do Mergers Increase Product Variety? Evidence from Radio Broadcasting 12003 8 JPE George, Lisa and Waldfogel, Joel Who Affects Whom in Daily Newspaper Markets? 12004 1 RES Strömberg, David Mass Media Competition, Political Competition, and Public Policy 02004 2 QJE Stromberg, David Radio's Impact on Public Spending 12004 3 EMA Goolsbee, Austan and Petrin, Amil The Consumer Gains from Direct Broadcast Satellites and the Competition with Cable TV12005 9 AER Mullainathan, Sendhil and Shleifer, Andrei The Market for News 02005 11 QJE Tim Groseclose, Jeffrey Milyo A Measure of Media Bias 12006 2 QJE Jonathan Reuter, Eric Zitzewitz Do Ads Influence Editors? Advertising and Bias in the Financial Media 12006 3 AER George, Lisa M. and Waldfogel, Joel The New York Times and the Market for Local Newspapers 12006 4 JPE Gentzkow, Matthew and Shapiro, Jesse M. Media Bias and Reputation 02006 6 AER Veldkamp, Laura L. Media Frenzies in Markets for Financial Information 02006 6 AER Besley, Timothy and Prat, Andrea Handcuffs for the Grabbing Hand? Media Capture and Government Accountability02006 8 QJE Matthew Gentzkow Television and Voter Turnout 12007 5 QJE Thomas Eisensee, David Strömberg News Droughts, News Floods, and U.S. Disaster Relief 12007 6 AER Gentzkow, Matthew Valuing New Goods in a Model with Complementarity: Online Newspapers 12007 8 QJE Stefano DellaVigna, Ethan Kaplan The Fox News Effect: Media Bias and Voting 12008 1 RES Mortimer, Julie H. Vertical Contracts in the Video Rental Industry 12008 2 QJE Matthew Gentzkow, Jesse M. Shapiro Preschool Television Viewing and Adolescent Test Scores: Historical Evidence from the Coleman Study12008 7 RES Chan, Jimmy and Suen, Wing A Spatial Theory of News Consumption and Electoral Competition 02009 4 JPE Hendricks, Ken and Sorensen, Alan Information and the Skewness of Music Sales 12009 5 QJE Gordon Dahl, Stefano DellaVigna Does Movie Violence Increase Violent Crime? 12009 8 QJE Jensen, Robert and Oster, Emily The Power of TV: Cable Television and Women's Status in India 12009 12 AER Oberholzer-Gee, Felix and Waldfogel, Joel Media Markets and Localism: Does Local News en Español Boost Hispanic Voter Turnout?12010 1 EMA Gentzkow, Matthew and Shapiro, Jesse M. What Drives Media Slant? Evidence From U.S. Daily Nespapers 1

35 Years of Media Papers What about impact? Google Scholar citations Year Mo. Journal Author Article Emp. Cites

1977 2 QJE Spence, Michael and Owen, Bruce Television Programming, Monopolistic Competition, and Welfare0 2381977 2 QJE Beebe, Jack H. Institutional Structure and Program Choices in Television Markets1 1651979 3 AER Ellickson, Bryan Hedonic Theory and the Demand for Cable Television 1 131980 7 RES Bradley, Keith and Gelb, Alan Worker Cooperatives as Industrial Policy: The Case of the 'Scottish Daily News'1 61990 2 QJE Erfle, Stephen and McMillan, Henry Media, Political Pressure, and the Firm: The Case of Petroleum Pricing in the Late 1970s1 252001 6 AER Chipty, Tasneem Vertical Integration, Market Foreclosure, and Consumer Welfare in the Cable Television Industry1 1602001 8 QJE Berry, Steven T. and Waldfogel, Joel Do Mergers Increase Product Variety? Evidence from Radio Broadcasting1 1662003 8 JPE George, Lisa and Waldfogel, Joel Who Affects Whom in Daily Newspaper Markets? 1 772004 1 RES Strömberg, David Mass Media Competition, Political Competition, and Public Policy0 2232004 2 QJE Stromberg, David Radio's Impact on Public Spending 1 3582004 3 EMA Goolsbee, Austan and Petrin, Amil The Consumer Gains from Direct Broadcast Satellites and the Competition with Cable TV1 1702005 9 AER Mullainathan, Sendhil and Shleifer, Andrei The Market for News 0 3332005 11 QJE Tim Groseclose, Jeffrey Milyo A Measure of Media Bias 1 2272006 2 QJE Jonathan Reuter, Eric Zitzewitz Do Ads Influence Editors? Advertising and Bias in the Financial Media1 932006 3 AER George, Lisa M. and Waldfogel, Joel The New York Times and the Market for Local Newspapers1 542006 4 JPE Gentzkow, Matthew and Shapiro, Jesse M. Media Bias and Reputation 0 3042006 6 AER Veldkamp, Laura L. Media Frenzies in Markets for Financial Information 0 992006 6 AER Besley, Timothy and Prat, Andrea Handcuffs for the Grabbing Hand? Media Capture and Government Accountability0 3032006 8 QJE Matthew Gentzkow Television and Voter Turnout 1 1552007 5 QJE Thomas Eisensee, David Strömberg News Droughts, News Floods, and U.S. Disaster Relief 1 602007 6 AER Gentzkow, Matthew Valuing New Goods in a Model with Complementarity: Online Newspapers1 1342007 8 QJE Stefano DellaVigna, Ethan Kaplan The Fox News Effect: Media Bias and Voting 1 2492008 1 RES Mortimer, Julie H. Vertical Contracts in the Video Rental Industry 1 1042008 2 QJE Matthew Gentzkow, Jesse M. Shapiro Preschool Television Viewing and Adolescent Test Scores: Historical Evidence from the Coleman Study1 312008 7 RES Chan, Jimmy and Suen, Wing A Spatial Theory of News Consumption and Electoral Competition0 232009 4 JPE Hendricks, Ken and Sorensen, Alan Information and the Skewness of Music Sales 1 182009 5 QJE Gordon Dahl, Stefano DellaVigna Does Movie Violence Increase Violent Crime? 1 442009 8 QJE Jensen, Robert and Oster, Emily The Power of TV: Cable Television and Women's Status in India1 642009 12 AER Oberholzer-Gee, Felix and Waldfogel, Joel Media Markets and Localism: Does Local News en Español Boost Hispanic Voter Turnout?1 432010 1 EMA Gentzkow, Matthew and Shapiro, Jesse M. What Drives Media Slant? Evidence From U.S. Daily Nespapers1 166

35 Years of Media Papers Ten most cited papers (eleven with a tie)

All but one recent (<=10 years) Mixture of empirical and theoretical papers

Models of media: 4 Impact of media: 2 Evaluation of Media Bias: 2 IO papers: 3

Year Jour. Author Article Emp. Cites2004 QJE Stromberg Radio's Impact on Public Spending 1 3582005 AER Mullainathan and Shleifer The Market for News 0 3332006 JPE Gentzkow and Shapiro Media Bias and Reputation 0 3042006 AER Besley and Prat Media Capture and Government Accountability 0 3032007 QJE DellaVigna and Kaplan The Fox News Effect: Media Bias and Voting 1 2491977 QJE Spence and Owen Television Programming, Monopolistic Compet. 0 2382005 QJE Groseclose and Milyo A Measure of Media Bias 1 2272004 RES Strömberg Mass Media Competition, Political Competition 0 2232004 EMA Goolsbee and Petrin Consumer Gains from Direct Broadcast Satellites 1 1702010 EMA Gentzkow and Shapiro What Drives Media Slant? U.S. Daily Newspapers 1 1662001 QJE Berry and Waldfogel Mergers and Product Variety: Radio Broadcasting 1 166

35 Years of Advertising Papers

Year Mo. Journal Author Article Cites1975 9 AER Weber, David Optimal Advertising: A Note 11976 10 JPE Strickland, Allyn D. and Weiss, Leonard W. Advertising, Concentration, and Price-Cost Margins 1741977 10 RES Butters, Gerard R. Equilibrium Distributions of Sales and Advertising Prices 7081978 6 JPE Schmalensee, Richard A Model of Advertising and Product Quality 3711979 6 AER Kotowitz, Y. and Mathewson, F. Informative Advertising and Welfare 241980 7 EMA Ashley, R. and Granger, C. W. J. and Schmalensee, R.Advertising and Aggregate Consumption: An Analysis of Causality3521980 11 QJE Spence, A. Michael Notes on Advertising, Economies of Scale, and Entry Barriers731982 6 AER Ehrlich, Isaac and Fisher, Lawrence The Derived Demand for Advertising: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation1291983 8 JPE Schmalensee, Richard Advertising and Entry Deterrence: An Exploratory Model 1511983 12 AER Wiggins, Steven N. and Lane, W. J. Quality Uncertainty, Search, and Advertising 441984 1 RES Grossman, Gene M. and Shapiro, Carl Informative Advertising with Differentiated Products 4801984 3 AER Kwoka, John E., Jr. Advertising and the Price and Quality of Optometric Services1261984 6 JPE Kihlstrom, Richard E. and Riordan, Michael H.Advertising as a Signal 4271984 6 JPE Peters, Michael Restrictions on Price Advertising 171985 3 AER Nichols, Len M. Advertising and Economic Welfare 511986 8 JPE Milgrom, Paul and Roberts, John Price and Advertising Signals of Product Quality 13711988 3 AER Hochman, Oded and Luski, Israel Advertising and Economic Welfare: Comment 151988 4 RES Rogerson, William P. Price Advertising and the Deterioration of Product Quality 491990 3 AER Sauer, Raymond D. and Leffler, Keith B. Did the Federal Trade Commission's Advertising Substantiation Program Promote More Credible Advertising?231990 6 JPE Rizzo, John A. and Zeckhauser, Richard J. Advertising and Entry: The Case of Physician Services 381991 3 AER Stegeman, Mark Advertising in Competitive Markets 1171993 5 EMA Robert, Jacques and II, Dale O. Stahl Informative Price Advertising in a Sequential Search Model1321993 11 QJE Becker, Gary S. and Murphy, Kevin M. A Simple Theory of Advertising as a Good or Bad 3181994 1 RES Bagwell, Kyle and Ramey, Garey Advertising and Coordination 661994 6 AER Bagwell, Kyle and Ramey, Garey Coordination Economies, Advertising, and Search Behavior in Retail Markets1401999 12 AER Milyo, Jeffrey and Waldfogel, Joel The Effect of Price Advertising on Prices: Evidence in the Wake of 44 Liquormart1072002 10 RES Prat, Andrea Campaign Advertising and Voter Welfare 1392006 3 AER Simon P. Anderson and Renault, R??gis Advertising Content 982006 6 AER Johnson, Justin P. and Myatt, David P. On the Simple Economics of Advertising, Marketing, and Product Design1382007 3 AER Edelman, Benjamin and Ostrovsky, Michael and Schwarz, MichaelInternet Advertising and the Generalized Second-Price Auction: Selling Billions of Dollars Worth of Keywords5822007 6 JPE Avery, Rosemary and Kenkel, Donald and Lillard, Dean R. and Mathios, AlanPrivate Profits and Public Health: Does Advertising of Smoking Cessation Products Encourage Smokers to Quit?252008 9 EMA Goeree, Michelle Sovinsky Limited Information and Advertising in the U.S. Personal Computer Industry412010 2 QJE Bertrand, Marianne, Karlan, Dean, Mullainathan, Sendhil, Shafir, Eldar and Jonathan ZinmanWhat's Advertising Content Worth? Evidence from a Consumer Credit Marketing Field Experiment84

35 Years of Advertising Papers Ten most cited papers

All but one before 2000 Some very highly cited papers

Year JournalAuthor Article Cites1986 JPE Milgrom and Roberts Price and Advertising Signals of Product Quality 13711977 RES Butters Equilibrium Distributions of Sales and Advertising Prices7082007 AER Edelman, Ostrovsky and Schwarz Internet Advertising and the Generalized Second-Price Auction: Selling Billions of Dollars Worth of Keywords5821984 RES Grossman and Shapiro Informative Advertising with Differentiated Products4801984 JPE Kihlstrom and Riordan Advertising as a Signal 4271978 JPE Schmalensee A Model of Advertising and Product Quality 3711980 EMA Ashley, Granger and SchmalenseeAdvertising and Aggregate Consumption: An Analysis of Causality3521993 QJE Becker and Murphy A Simple Theory of Advertising as a Good or Bad 3181976 JPE Strickland and Weiss Advertising, Concentration, and Price-Cost Margins1741983 JPE Schmalensee Advertising and Entry Deterrence: An Exploratory Model151

Hard to forecast future trends Past trends in publication suggest that

economics of the media is growth area Largely it took the place of economics of

advertising About 4 papers per year in top journals out of

300 published per year

Research covers much ground: IO topics Models of media communication Evidence on media impact Evidence on media bias

Conclusion