megatrends driving agricultural transformation in africa...megatrends driving agricultural...
TRANSCRIPT
Megatrends Driving Agricultural Transformation in Africa
Challenges and Opportunities
T. S. Jayne, Milu Muyanga, Felix Kwame Yeboah, Ayala Wineman, Lulama Traub
Presentation at USAID/Kenya Nairobi, Kenya
12 September, 2017
Format
1. Fivemegatrendsaffectingagri-foodsystemsintheregion
2. Conclusionsandpolicyimplications
3. Reflectionsonpartnership
Format
1. Fivemegatrendsaffectingagri-foodsystemsintheregion
Fiveinter-relatedtrends
4
Fiveinter-relatedtrends
Rapidpopulationgrowth
5
Fiveinter-relatedtrends
Rapidpopulationgrowth
Rapidgrowthinfood
demand6
Fiveinter-relatedtrends
Rapidpopulationgrowth
Laborforceexitfrom
farming
Rapidgrowthinfood
demand7
Fiveinter-relatedtrends
Rapidpopulationgrowth
Laborforceexitfrom
farming
Rapidgrowthinfood
demand
Riseof‘investorfarmers’/
changingfarmsizes
8
Fiveinter-relatedtrends
Rapidpopulationgrowth
Risinglandscarcity
Laborforceexitfrom
farming
Rapidgrowthinfood
demand
Riseof‘investorfarmers’/
changingfarmsizes
9
Fiveinter-relatedtrends
Rapidpopulationgrowth
Risinglandscarcity
Laborforceexitfromfarming
Rapidgrowthinfood
demand
Riseof‘investor’farmers/
changingfarmandmarketstructure
10
Africa’srapidpopulationgrowth
6.17.2 6.8
0.92
2.1 3.8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2015 2050 2100
Billion
sofp
eople
Sub-SaharanAfrica Restofworld
Sub-SaharanAfrica:onlyregionofworldwhereruralpopulationcontinuestorisepast2050
12Source:UN2013
ChinaIndia
OtherSouthAsia
South-EastAsia
Sub-SaharanAfrica
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
100019
5019
5519
6019
6519
7019
7519
8019
8519
9019
9520
0020
0520
1020
1520
2020
2520
3020
3520
4020
4520
50
TotalRuralPopulation(millions)
Fiveinter-relatedtrends
Rapidpopulationgrowth
Risinglandscarcity
Laborforceexitfromfarming
Rapidgrowthinfood
demand
Riseof‘investor’farmers/
changingfarmandmarketstructure
13
SSATotalFoodImports from7to40billionUSD(2001-2015)(intraSSAtradefrom1to10billionUSD)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
USDBillion
s
SSAImportsfromnon-SSA SSA'simportsfromSSA
15Source: authors’ derivation from TradeMap 2017 and FAOSTAT, 2017
Netcerealexports,Sub-SaharanAfrica
0-3
0-1
010
-20M
illio
ns o
f Ton
nes
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015Year
MAIZE RICEWHEAT TOTAL
Sub-saharan Africa
Source:FAOSTAT,2016
Netcerealexports,EastAfricaRegion
Source:FAOSTAT,2016
0-1
0-5
Mill
ions
of T
onne
s
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015Year
Maize RiceWheat Total NX
East Africa
Relationshipbetween%ofruralpopulationondegradingagriculturallandandpopdensity
18
• Roughly 28% of rural population in SSA live on degrading agricultural land.
• 43 million additional people living on DAL between 2000-2010
Fiveinter-relatedtrends
Rapidpopulationgrowth
Risinglandscarcity
Laborforceexitfromfarming
Rapidgrowthinfood
demand
Riseof‘investor’farmers/
changingfarmandmarketstructure
19
Employment trends
Changes in the share of total jobs in farming, non-farm and off-farm agri-food systems, among the working age population (15–64 years)
21
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
Ghana(2006-2013)
Nigeria(2004-2013)
Rwanda(2006-2011)
Tanzania(2009-2012)
Uganda(2006-2012)
Zambia(2006-2012)
%of
totalFTEjob
s
Farming
Baseyear Endyear
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
Ghana(2006-2013)
Nigeria(2004-2013)
Rwanda(2006-2011)
Tanzania(2009-2012)
Uganda(2006-2012)
Zambia(2006-2012)
%of
totalFTEjob
s
Non-farmoutsideAgrifoodsystem
Baseyear Endyear
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
Ghana(2006-2013)
Nigeria(2004-2013)
Rwanda(2006-2011)
Tanzania(2009-2012)
Uganda(2006-2012)
Zambia(2006-2012)
%of
totalFTEjob
s
Off-farmwithinAgrifoodSystem
Baseyear Endyear
Fiveinter-relatedtrends
Rapidpopulationgrowth
Risinglandscarcity
Laborforceexitfromfarming
Rapidgrowthinfood
demand
Riseof‘investor’farmers/
changingfarmandmarketstructure
22
Farmsizecategory
Numberoffarms %growthinnumberoffarms
%oftotalcultivatedarea
1994 2006 1994 2006
0– 2ha 1,692,343 2,640,020 56 29.2 46.4
2– 5ha 525,363 332,011 -36.8 32.3 23.5
5– 10ha 93,871 17,451 -81.4 21.4 2.1
over10ha 92,498 19,493 -78.9*** 24.5 28
Total 2,404,075 3,008,975 100 100
Changes in farm structure in Kenya (1994-2006)
Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics
Farmsize
Numberoffarms(%oftotal) %growthinnumberoffarmsbetweeninitialandlatestyear
%oftotaloperatedlandonfarmsbetween
0-100ha
2008 2012 2008 2012
0– 5ha 5,454,961(92.8) 6,151,035(91.4) 12.8 62.4 56.3
5– 10ha 300,511(5.1) 406,947(6.0) 35.4 15.9 18.0
10– 20ha 77,668(1.3) 109,960(1.6) 41.6 7.9 9.7
20– 100ha 45,700(0.7) 64,588(0.9) 41.3 13.8 16.0
Total 5,878,840(100%) 6,732,530(100%) 14.5 100.0 100.0
Changes in farm structure in Tanzania (2008-2012), National Panel Surveys
Share of farmland on farms 5-100 ha from 38% to 44% in 4 years
Source: Ghana GLSS Surveys, 1992, 2013, Jayne et al., 2016, using data from Ghana GLSS Surveys I and IV.
Changes in farm structure in Ghana (1992-2013)
GhanaNumberoffarms
%growthinnumberoffarms
%oftotalcultivatedarea
1992 2013 1992 2013
0-2ha 1,458,540 1,582,034 8.5 25.1 14.2
2-5ha 578,890 998,651 72.5 35.6 31.3
5-10ha 116,800 320,411 174.3 17.2 22.8
10-20ha 38,690 117,722 204.3 11.0 16.1
20-100ha 18,980 37,421 97.2 11.1 12.2
>100ha -- 1,740 - -- 3.5
Total 2,211,900 3,057,978 38.3 100 100
51.1%
Farmsizecategory
Numberoffarms %growthinnumberoffarms
%oftotalcultivatedarea
2001 2012 2001 2012
0– 2ha 638,118 748,771 17.3 34.1 16.2
2– 5ha 159,039 418,544 163.2 45 31.7
5– 10ha 20,832 165,129 692.6 14.3 25.0
10– 20ha 2,352 53,454 2272.7 6.6 15.0
20– 100ha -- 13,839 na -- 12.1
Total 820,341 1,399,737 100 100
52.1%
Source: Zambia MAL Crop Forecast Surveys, 2001 and 2012
Changes in farm structure in Zambia (2001-2012)
Characteristicsof“emergentfarmers”
Riseofthemedium-scalefarmers
Riseofthemedium-scalefarmers
Riseofthemedium-scalefarmers
Type 1: Urban-based investor farmer Modeofentrytomedium-scalefarming
status:acquirefarmusingnon-farmincomeZambia Kenya(n=164) (n=180)
%ofcases 58 60%men 91.4 80Yearofbirth 1960 1947Yearsofeducationofhead 11 12.7Haveheldajobotherthanfarmer(%) 100 83.3Formerly/currentlyemployedbythepublicsector(%) 59.6 56.7
Currentlandholdingsize(ha) 74.9 50.1%oflandcurrentlyundercultivation 24.7 46.6Decadewhenlandwasacquired1969orearlier 1.1 61970-79 5.1 181980-89 7.4 201990-99 23.8 322000orlater 63.4 25
Source: MSU, UP, and ReNAPRI Retrospective Life History Surveys, 2015
Type 2: Rural-based ‘elite’ farmerModeofentryintomedium-scale
farmingstatus:expansionofruraleliteZambia Kenya(n=118) (n=120)
%ofcases 42 40%men 92.9 82.5Yearofbirth 1966 1945Yearsofeducationofhead 8.2 7.5Haveheldajobotherthanasafarmer(%) 32.9 17.5Landholdingsizewhenoperatorstartedownhousehold(ha) 10.7 16.2
Currentlandholdingsize(ha) 38.2 32.7%oflandcurrentlyundercultivation 46.9 54.1Decadewhenlandwasacquired1969orearlier 3.9 291970-79 6.7 241980-89 14.8 201990-99 32.2 182000orlater 42.0 9
Source: MSU, UP, and ReNAPRI Retrospective Life History Surveys, 2015
% of National Landholdings held by Urban Households
26.8%
22.0%
11.2%
18.3%
10.9% 11.8%
32.7%
16.8%
22.0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2008 2009 2004 2010 2010 2004/2005 2010 2007 2013/2014
Ghana Kenya Malawi Rwanda Tanzania Zambia
Source: Demographic and Health Surveys, various years between 2004-2014.
% of National Landholdings held by Urban Households
Source: DHS
26.8%
22.0%
11.2%
18.3%
10.9% 11.8%
32.7%
16.8%
22.0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2008 2009 2004 2010 2010 2004/2005 2010 2007 2013/2014
Ghana Kenya Malawi Rwanda Tanzania Zambia
GINIcoefficientsinfarmlandholding
35
Period MovementinGinicoefficient:
Ghana(cult.area) 1992à 2013 0.54à 0.70
Kenya(cult.area) 1994à 2006 0.51à 0.55
Tanzania(landholdings) 2008à 2012 0.63à 0.69
Zambia(landholding) 2001à 2012 0.42à 0.49
Source:Jayneetal.2014(JIA)
NominalvalueoftractorimportstoSub-SaharanAfrica(excludingSouthAfrica),2001-2015
36
$-
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Nom
inal
val
ue o
f im
ports
in ‘0
00 U
S$
Sub-Saharan Africa Southern Africa North Eastern AfricaWestern Africa Linear (Sub-Saharan Africa)
Source: vanderWesthuisen, forthcoming
Nominal value of tractor imports in selective Sub-Saharan African countries (2001-2015)
37
$-
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
$90,000
$100,000
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Valu
e of
Impo
rts: U
S$ T
hous
and
Ghana Nigeria Kenya Tanzania Zambia
Linear (Ghana) Linear (Nigeria) Linear (Kenya) Linear (Tanzania) Linear (Zambia)
Source: vanderWesthuisen, forthcoming, based on Trade Map data
Fiveinter-relatedtrends
Rapidpopulationgrowth
Risinglandscarcity
Laborforceexitfromfarming
Rapidgrowthinfood
demand
Riseof‘investor’farmers/
changingfarmandmarketstructure
38
Outputandfactorpriceindices,northernTanzania
39
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
2008/9 2010/11 2012/13
Priceinde
x(200
8/9=10
0)
Agriculturalwage(TSH/day)
Landrentalrate(TSH/ha)
Maize(TSH/kg)
Outputandfactorpriceindices,westernTanzania
40
60
100
140
180
220
260
300
2008/9 2010/11 2012/13
Adjusted
pric
e(200
8/9=10
0)
Agriculturalwage(TSH/day)
Landrentalrate(TSH/ha)
Maize(TSH/kg)
Outputandfactorpriceindices,ruralMalawi,2004-2013
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2004 2005 2010 2013
Priceinde
x(2004=100)
Rentalrate(MWK/ha)
Agriculturalwage(MWK/day)
MWK/kgurea
MWK/kgmaize
Sources:IHSforlandandwages;FEWSNETforureaandmaize
Fiveinter-relatedtrends
Rapidpopulationgrowth
Risinglandscarcity
Laborforceexitfromfarming
Rapidgrowthinfood
demand
Riseof‘investor’farmers/
changingfarmandmarketstructure
42
Conclusions
1. Performanceofagriculturewillcontinuetoexertmajorinfluenceonjobgrowthandincomegrowthinoveralleconomy
2. Agriculturalproductivitygrowthwillbethecornerstoneofanycomprehensiveyouthlivelihoodsstrategy:
– Agproductivitygrowthinfluences
• paceoflaborforceexitoutoffarming
• Laborproductivityinbroadereconomy
Shareoflaborforceinfarmingisdecliningmostrapidlywhereagriculturalproductivitygrowthishighest
Ghana
Kenya
Malawi
Mali
Nigeria
Rwanda
TanzaniaUganda
Zambia-2.0
0-1
.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
Annu
al %
cha
nge
in s
hare
of l
abor
forc
e en
gage
d in
farm
ing
-2 0 2 4 6 8Average annual TFP growth in agriculture(%)
Trend line
Source: Yeboah and Jayne, 2016
Bostwana
EthiopiaGhana Kenya
Malawi
Mauritius
Nigeria
Senegal
Tanzania
South Africa
Zambia
Bostwana1 Ethiopia1
Ghana1
Kenya1
Malawi1
Mauritius1
Nigeria1
Senegal1 Tanzania1
South Africa1
Zambia1-4
-20
24
6Av
. ann
ual l
abor
pro
duct
ivity
gro
wth
in n
on-a
gric
ultu
re (%
)
-2 0 2 4Average annual agricultural total factor productivity growth (%)
Trend line
Non-farmlaborproductivitygrowthlinkedtolaggedagriculturalproductivitygrowth
Conclusions(cont.)
3. Importantchangesinthedistributionoffarmsizes
• Declineinshareoffarmlandunder5hectarefarms
• Riseofmedium-scalefarms
• Risinginequalityoffarmlanddistribution
• Growinglandscarcitydrivenbymiddle/highincomeurbanpeopleseekingtoacquireland– notjustforfarming
• speculation,housing/properties,farming• Riseofnewtownsconvertingformerlyremotelandinto
valuedproperty
Conclusions(cont.)
3. Agsectorpoliciesmustanticipateandrespondto
• risinglandprices,declineofinheritance,marketasincreasinglyimportantmodeofacquiringland
• Resourcesneededforyouthtosucceedinfarming(accesstoland,finance)
• Distinguishbetween“tryingtokeepyouthinagriculture”vs.“givingyouthviablechoices”
Bottomlineconclusions
EconomictransformationinSSAwillrequire:– Enlightenedpoliciesà evidenceà research
– Strengtheneducationalsystem
– StrengthenAfricanpublicinstitutions,includingagriculturalpolicyinstitutes
– Processmatters
Governmentsholdthekey!
ThankYou
49