Social and economic systems John Sawdon Seng Somnchamnavong Try Thuon Paul Wyrwoll

International Centre for Environmental Management Bangkok, 28th March 2013

Contents • Baseline

• Impact and vulnerability

• Adaptation

• Cross-sector analysis

BASELINE

Key socio-economic trends in the LMB

• Poverty: Falling poverty, but still widespread • Population: Falling fertility, but current population (≈65m) to

rise and peak to 2050 • Migration: Rural-urban, rural-rural, inter-regional • Food security: Falling over time, but high vulnerability

remains in many areas; food price fluctuations • Agricultural production: Movement towards commercial

production; trade in agricultural commodities • Hydropower development and land concessions:

Transformation of ecosystems and local economies in rural areas (mainly Lao PDR and Cambodia)

1. The rural poor are dependent on ecosystem

services 2. Livelihood portfolios are highly diverse 3. Small-holder and subsistence family-based

production is dominant (70-80%) – and will be for decades to come

4. Even subsistence farmers purchase a large share of their food

5. All countries in the basin contain particular groups whom remain chronically poor, or are vulnerable to poverty and food insecurity

Key characteristics of rural livelihoods in the LMB

Food source by occupation in Lao PDR

Source: WFP 2007 Own production

Fishing/Hunting Gathering Purchase Other source

Food source by occupation in Lao PDR

Source: WFP 2007

1

Own production Fishing/Hunting

Gathering Purchase Other source

Food source by occupation in Lao PDR

Source: WFP 2007

1

2

Own production Fishing/Hunting

Gathering Purchase Other source

Food source by occupation in Lao PDR

Source: WFP 2007

1

2

3

Own production Fishing/Hunting

Gathering Purchase Other source

71%

Food source by occupation in Lao PDR

Source: WFP 2007

1

2 4

3

Own production Fishing/Hunting

Gathering Purchase Other source

71%

5. Vulnerability to poverty and food insecurity • Rates of severe poverty (<$1.25) have declined significantly

• Significant proportions of the

population remain below the $2 threshold

• Still greater number remain

vulnerable to poverty: - Cambodia – approx. 65% < $2.5 - Lao PDR – approx. 78% < $2.5 - Viet Nam - approx. 58% < $2.5

Source: WDI 2013

NTFPs Agriculture

Fisheries Livestock Livelihoods

Health Infrastructure

The significance of health and infrastructure for livelihoods

• Inadequate health limits the capacity of individuals to engage in livelihood activities

• Infrastructure enables households and communities to pursue and benefit from livelihood activities

• Rural infrastructure: Physical, stationary infrastructure such as roads, bridges, housing, water supply, irrigation infrastructure, and grain storage

Health: Child mortality in LMB countries

• Improvements in health conditions generally, but limited access in many areas and remaining high vulnerability

Infrastructure: Water supply

• Note that improved water source ≠ safe water source • Despite broad improvements, weak and insufficient

infrastructure in many remote rural areas, particularly roads

IMPACT AND VULNERABILITY

Vulnerability and impact assessment (CAM) • Health key impacts:

– Heat stress – Water-borne disease – Vector-borne disease – Physical injury or death caused

by extreme weather • Infrastructure key impacts:

– Damage and destruction caused by extreme weather

– Lack of access to infrastructure – Gradual degradation over time

• Focus on direct impacts for both sectors

Ecological zones Livelihood zones

Forested uplands Intensively used uplands Lowland plains and plateaus Floodplain Delta

Livelihood zone summary

Livelihood zones and Hot Spot provinces

Forested uplands (FU), Intensively used uplands (IUU), Floodplain (F), Lowland plains and plateaus (LPP), Delta (D)

Livelihood zones in Mondulkiri province

Very High Vulnerability – Health Summary • Key threats by province (zone): - Chiang Rai: flooding (F) - Gia Lai: temperature rise (IUU), flash floods and

landslides (IUU) - Khammouan: floods (LPP, F), flash floods and landslides

(FU) - Kien Giang: floods (D) - Mondulkiri: temperature rise (FU, LPP), drought (LPP),

floods (LPP)

Very High Vulnerability – Health (Mondulkiri – LPP, FU)

Threat: Temperature rise Impact: Heat stress • Days exceeding 35°C to rise

from 5% to 25% on annual basis • 35°C (sustained) threshold for

heat stress • Outdoor livelihoods • Lack of infrastructure (electricity

limited in rural areas) • High poverty (37%) and poor

health access (maternal mortality within 1 month = 7.2%)

Very High Vulnerability – Health (Khammouan – LPP, F)

Threat: Flooding Impact: incidence of water-borne, vector-borne disease • 20% increase in rainfall at

beginning and end of wet season • Post-flood stagnant water pools

provide disease vector breeding ground (e.g. mosquitoes)

• Lack of access to safe drinking water during flood events

• Poor health: on average each woman death of one child (survey)

Very High Vulnerability – Infrastructure Summary • Key threats by province (zone): - Chiang Rai: flooding (F) - Gia Lai: flash floods and landslides (IUU) - Khammouan: floods (LPP, FU), flash floods and

landslides (FU) - Kien Giang: floods (D) - Mondulkiri: landslides (FU), floods (LPP)

Very High Vulnerability – Infrastructure (Gia Lai - IUU)

Threat: frequency of flash floods and landslides Impact: Destruction and degradation of infrastructure • 10%-20% magnitude of

extreme rainfall events • Land-clearing on sloping land • Destruction of roads or prevention

of road access • Destruction/degradation of other

rural infrastructure, such as buildings, irrigation infrastructure

Very High Vulnerability – Infrastructure (Kien Giang - D)

Threat: Increased duration and frequency of floods (sea level rise) Impact: Extended slow-onset flooding degrading infrastructure • ≈ 27% province area projected

to have flood depth >1m for more than 2 months per year

• Roads and bridges eroded • Buildings water-damaged or

destroyed • Groundwater supply

infrastructure contaminated

ADAPTATION

Additional effects of development on climate change vulnerability • Rapid economic growth, but current course is unsustainable

because of the degradation of ecosystem services • Access to natural resources and ecosystem services is

critical to the vulnerability of rural livelihoods • Factors affecting ecosystem services:

– Hydropower development – Land concessions – Deforestation, illegal logging, poaching – Population growth and migration

• Climate change placing stress on an already stressed system

Adaptation context • Current study seeks to provide potential adaptation options in

areas with similar social and ecosystem characteristics across the LMB

• Local application would require dedicated research and community participation into climate change impacts and specific vulnerabilities, as well as appropriate cross-sectoral adaptation strategies

Categories of adaptation strategies – Health 1. Addressing the adaptation deficit due to poor health

access (in both physical and economic terms) 2. Centralised warning and response systems for vector-

borne and water-borne disease 3. Incorporating climate change into the design, technology,

and location of health-related infrastructure 4. Protection of ecosystem services that support community

food security and health

Very High Vulnerability – Health (Mondulkiri – LPP, FU)

Threat: Higher maximum temperatures Impact: Heat stress Examples of potential adaptation strategies: • Improve maternal and pediatric healthcare, including child

immunization programs • Improve access to safe water and sanitation, including

covered groundwater bores, rainwater tanks, water treatment technology, and covered latrines

• Construction of heat respite community centres for the benefit of vulnerable groups

• Education programs regarding heat stress

Very High Vulnerability – Health (Khammouan – LPP, F)

Threat: Increased frequency and duration of floods Impact: incidence of water-borne, vector-borne disease Examples of potential adaptation strategies: • Strengthen institutional capacity for provision of

forecasting, early warning systems, and effective response for flooding and water-borne and vector-borne disease

• Education programs regarding water-borne disease

Categories of adaptation strategies – Infrastructure 1. Implementation and maintenance of community-based

bioengineering projects 2. Revision of design standards to incorporate climate

change 3. Revision of infrastructure planning given threats posed

by climate change, particularly the location of key infrastructure such as roads, community buildings, and dwellings

• Bioengineering refers to the use of vegetation and natural materials to improve slope and shoreline stability

Very High Vulnerability – Infrastructure (Gia Lai - IUU)

Threat: Increased frequency of flash floods and landslides Impact: Destruction and degradation of infrastructure Examples of potential adaptation strategies: • Reforestation and other locally managed bioengineering

initiatives in riparian and sloping areas, especially those linked to strategic rural infrastructure

• Climate-sensitive design, siting and maintenance of major infrastructure in areas highly vulnerable to extreme events

Very High Vulnerability – Infrastructure (Kien Giang - D)

Threat: Increased duration and frequency of floods Impact: Extended slow-onset flooding degrading infrastructure Examples of potential adaptation strategies: • Improvements to canal networks that are required to cope

with more intense flood events, particularly to ensure effective drainage of fields and waterways

• Strengthen natural coastal protection from inundation through community-based rehabilitation and protection programs, particularly for mangrove ecosystems

CROSS-SECTOR ANALYSIS

Socio-economic overview of Mondulkiri

• Population: ~ 47,000 (2004); ~ 62,000 (2010) • Poverty: Poorest province in Cambodia: 37% by national

standards • Food security: Classified as chronically food insecure by

World Food Programme in 2009 • Livelihoods:

– Mix of subsistence and commercial activities – Reliance on natural resources – Multiple activities

NTFPs Agriculture

Fisheries Livestock Livelihoods

Health Infrastructure

Cross-sector climate change impacts: Mondulkiri

• Agriculture: 3% rice yield, cassava suitability Food security and health; gathering NTFPs; livestock feed availability

• Natural systems: resin production, earthworm habitat Income for food security and health, investments in livestock and infrastructure; decline in trapeang ecosystems that support livestock and NTFPs

Cross-sector climate change impacts: Mondulkiri

• Livestock: drought and flash floods cause livestock fatalities Food security and health; fishing; capacity to invest in agriculture

• Fisheries: migratory white fish that are important seasonal harvest production for subsistence households time available agriculture and NTFP collecting for the rest of the year

Cross-sector climate change impacts: Mondulkiri

• Health: temperature generates heat stress conditions Illness labour productivity in agriculture, NTFPs

• Infrastructure: flooding damages roads and reduces access, thereby isolating communities water-borne disease and causing health impacts; reduced access to NTFPs

• Above discussion focuses on just some 2nd order effects not 3rd or 4th order; multiple and enduring feedbacks within the system

Climate change has a multiplier effect across sectors, not simply an additive impact

Mondulkiri illustration

Integrated Adaptation

• Integrated policies, structures, procedures and tools • Use of local knowledge and community participation

pivotal to success • Spatial planning is foundation for adaptation at site level • Recognise the trade-offs involved between sectors when

preparing area-wide adaptation plans • Seek out ‘win-win’ solutions, or complementary

approaches, available across sectors – Efficient – Mutually reinforcing – Likely to achieve wide stakeholder support

THANK YOU