metamorphosing into moth or butterfly resources (476 hk... · it now ventures into two new...
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Sinocorp Resources (476 HK)
Metamorphosing into moth or butterfly ?
Share price has risen by more than 40% since last December
Acquired two new businesses since February: a EV bus and a mine
Metamorphosing into two moths or two butterflies, or one each?
Electric bus venture. Sinocorp Resources made a voluntary announcement on
24th February that a 75% owned subsidiary of it received an official confirmation
from the Hong Kong Productivity Council (HKPC) that it had won the tender for
the design, supply and fabrication of a Permanent Magnet Synchronized Motor
and Power Battery System for electric buses, which are the key components for
the new electric bus project that was awarded to Green Dynamic EV by the
HKPC. On 5th March, the company made another voluntary announcement that it
has agreed to buy 51% of the holding company of Green Dynamic EV.
Beijing Car City Investment Management Company. This Beijing company is
owned by the Shunyi County of Beijing, and is the holding company of the 19
square kilometers Beijing Car City near the Beijing International Airport. On 4th
March, Sinocorp Resources agreed to place 450m shares to six investors, one of
which is this Beijing company, which has entered into an arrangement with the
company to become a potential investor in these new shares.
Acquired a glauberite mine for HK$3bn. On 28th February, the Company
completed the acquisition of 100% of a glauberite mine owned by its Chairman
and Deputy Chairman, for HK$3bn, by issuing 120m new shares at HK$0.75
each and 3,880m convertible zero-coupon bonds at the same price. The HK$3bn
valuation is based on HK$13/tone for the 236m tone estimated thenardite
reserves. Industrial grade thenardite currently sells for about Rmb 500/ton.
Metamorphosis The Company was engaged in the trading of iron ores, which
was loss-making in the past decade. The two new businesses acquired this year
let it metamorphosing into two totally different businesses, one in EV technology
and the other in specialty mining, both could fly high when successful. However,
owing to their early development stages, no financial projection can be produced.
Wed, 12 Mar 2014
Equity Research
Auto/Mining
Henry Kwong
Analyst
+852 2135 5820
OP Express
NOT RATED
Close price: HK$1.09
Key Data
HKEx code 476
12 Months High (HK$) 1.10
12 Month Low (HK$) 0.42
3M Avg Dail Vol. (mn) 21.75
Issue Share (mn) 2,110.25
Market Cap (HK$mn) 2,300.17
Fiscal Year 03/2013
Major shareholder (s) Cheung Ngan (15%)
Source: Company data, Bloomberg, OP Research
Closing price are as of 11/3/2014
Price Chart
1mth 3mth 6mth
Absolute % 60.3 62.7 127.1
Rel. MSCI CHINA % 59.1 71.1 132.3
Company Profi le
Listed in 1996, Sinocorp was initially
engaged in garment design and retailing.
The present Chairman, Mr. Cheung Ngan,
acquired control in 1998m and turned the
company into copper mining and iron-ore
trading. It now ventures into two new
businesses, one engages in EV bus
production and the other in glauberite
mining.
Exhibit 1: Historical P/L and Valuation Year to Mar (HK$ mn) FY09A FY10A FY11A FY12A FY13A
Revenue 284.6 389.8 312.4 144.2 261.6
Growth (%) n.a. 37% -20% -54% 81%
Net Profit (20.5) (25.2) (43.1) (21.3) (23.2)
Growth (%) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Diluted EPS (HK$ Cents) (0.97) (1.19) (2.04) (1.01) (1.10)
EPS growth (%) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Consensus EPS (RMB) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
ROE (%) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
P/E (x) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
P/B (x) 16.3 14.0 11.9 13.6 15.3
DPS (HK$) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Source: Bloomberg, OP Research
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
Mar/13 Jun/13 Sep/13 Dec/13 Mar/14
HK$476 HK MSCI CHINA
Wed, 12 Mar 2014
Sinocorp Resources (476 HK)
Page 2 of 14
Electric Bus New Venture
A 'Made by Hong Kong' pure electric bus funded by the HKPC
On 4th October 2013, the Hong Kong Productivity Council (HKPC) announced
that it had picked Green Dynamic Electric Vehicle Limited (Green Dynamic) as its
co-sponsoring partner for the development of a ‘Made by Hong Kong’ electric bus
(see Exhibit 2 below for the artwork of the proposed prototype), for a total budget
of about HK$40m, which will be funded equally by Green Dynamic and by the
Innovation and Technology Fund of the HKSAR Government through the HKPC.
On the day of the announcement, Green Dynamic suggested the prototypes will
be ready for road test in early 2015, and the estimated selling price for each bus
will be about HK$3m, much less than the US$1m currently asked for by the
foreign brands. Moreover, following the successful development, Green Dynamic
will own the IP for the core technologies comprising the overall vehicle design, the
electronic and mechanical vehicle system controller systems, and the remote
diagnosis system that transmits the bus’s operating data to the headquarters
instantly for vehicle monitoring and fleet management.
Exhibit 2: Artwork of the proposed prototype eclectic bus made by HK
Source: Hong Kong Productivity Centre
Green Dynamic initiated the project and gained HKPC's full support
Green Dynamic EV is founded by Mr. Andrew Yung, an entrepreneur with long
experience in the auto market in Hong Kong. Mr. Yung and his R&D team brought
the design concept of their so-called "mission critical core technologies" for the
controller systems of the proposed electric bus to the HKPC, suggesting they
have the local expertise to develop electric buses with high standard compliance,
which will also fulfill the unique driving condition and traffic requirements of Hong
Kong. Understandingly, such a proposal meets the goal of the HKPC in raising
the local productivity standard for the manufacturing and servicing sectors. As
such, after months of studies, HKPC arranged the Innovation and Technology
Wed, 12 Mar 2014
Sinocorp Resources (476 HK)
Page 3 of 14
Fund of the HKSAR Government to finance one half of the estimated project cost.
Following another long period in screening the potential suppliers for the critical
components from mainland China and overseas, including the chassis, bus body,
electric motor and the batteries, HKPC made the above announcement in
October last year, and also disclosed their preferred specifications for the
proposed bus that we have extracted in Exhibit 3 below.
Exhibit 3: Specification of HKPC’s ‘Made by Hong Kong Electric Bus
Length Not exceeding 12 meters
Maximum capacity 69 passengers (45 seated and 24 standing)
Maximum speed (full loaded) 80 km per hour
Longest travelling distance when fully charged
(full loaded)
300 km
Motor
Type Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motor (PMSM)
Weight: (using 180KW/1500RPM as an
example for comparison with induction
motor)
450 kg (44% of induction motor)
Size Slightly bigger than a domestic microwave oven
(46% of induction motor)
Bus body material Aluminum alloy (6082-T6 Grade)
Net body weight 12.5 Tonnes
Charging time 4 hours
Battery safety Two sets of batteries, one on the roof and
the other in the rear, each fitted with steel
plates
Collision safety protection, flooding
protection, power leakage protection, short
circuit protection
Intelligent design/ Strength Advanced vehicle system controller
Remote diagnosis system
Aluminum alloy bus body and PMSM can
slow down battery usage and enable longer
travel distance
Localized design reduces the chance of
incompatibility
Source: Hong Kong Productivity Centre
Sinocorp Resources won the tender for the battery system
Tenders were than set out for the potential suppliers to compete for the supply of
the critical components. It turned out Sinocorp Resources' 75% owned subsidiary,
天津中銅新能源科技有限責任公司, won the tender for the battery systems by
providing its proprietary Polymer Lithium-ion Battery Systems. Surprising, the
Company has never made known that it had invested in such a technology which
is totally different from the iron ore trading and copper mining business that the
company has been engaged since 2002.
In winning the tender, 天津中銅新能源科技有限責任公司 has joined with 深圳市
匯元自動控制技術有限公司 which provides the PMSM systems. We goggled the
latter company and found it is one of the one of the more established PMSM
system suppliers in China, and have been supplying such systems for certain
electric bus models of the King Long Motor Group and the FAW Jiefang
Automotive Company, and some models of these buses are serving certain
Wed, 12 Mar 2014
Sinocorp Resources (476 HK)
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routes in the major cities such as Guangzhou, Zhuhai and Xiamen, using battery
systems provided by several other suppliers.
Sinocorp Resources' battery system weighs about 2.7 ton
We checked the tender documents sent out by the HKPC, which was closed on
31st December 2013, it required the successful tenderer to produce, by the end
2014, four sets of battery pack systems each of >600 ampere-hours, of weight
less than 4 tons and of rated voltage of >=500 volts DC. Besides, such battery
packs will have to come with a battery management system and onboard charger,
and is able to drive a Permanent Magnet Synchronized Motor (PMSM) systems,
including the motor and the motor controller, that work for the prototype electric
bus at full loading at 18 tons for a maximum speed of 80km/hour and at climb
angle greater than 12%. Besides, acceleration time form 0 to 50km/hour of less
than 12 seconds.
The tender also specified the total weight for the battery system be less than 4
tons, implying for the gravimetric energy density of 75 watt-hour/kg. However, the
system provided by Sinocorp Resources is weighing about 2.7 tons only, implying
a much higher energy density of 110 watt-hour/kg, which is typical with the
polymer lithium ion batteries that usually range from 100-130 watt-hour/kg. Apart
from weighing much less, polymer lithium ion batteries is also better than liquid
lithium ion batteries in terms of safely and can have more flexible form factors.
Proprietary polymer lithium technology for the battery system
Sinocorp Resources acquired its proprietary polymer lithium technology from the
engineer, Mr. Zhang Yufei ("Zhang"), who has been focusing on the development
of lithium batteries for use under extremely low temperature environment of up to
-70oC, and has successfully produced such battery types for the Chinese
Academy of Meteorological Sciences (see Exhibit 4, left hand side). Zhang's
other achievements include the development of specialty battery systems for use
by the army for the igniting the engines of tanks of the People's Army in 2012 (see
Exhibit 4, right hand side). Sinocorp bought out Zhang's entire development work
and IP by forming 天津中銅新能源科技有限責任公司, in which Mr. Zhang retains
25% share.
Polymer lithium ion is a matured battery technology now widely used in lab top
computers. Zhang's new input seems to be on the low-temperature capabilities
as well as high energy density (lesser weight) and higher instant power delivery
that allows it to ignite the tank engines. From the publication CN103224644A of
Zhang's patent application CN201310103888, Zhang claims his invention in his
battery system is developed bases on "a large-power lithium-porous polymeric
membrane can be electrically isolated from cell processing method, characterized
in that the electrically insulating film in an isolated cell membrane treatment is
soaked in the slurry after the drying process, the slurry process of the insulating
film the following components are formulated by weight ratio: ethyl acetate 85 to
90% acetone 6-8% 3-5% plasticizer, the adhesive I ~ 2.5%." The patent
application also described the isolated cell membrane treatment in details.
However, as the patent was applied in China in March 2013, it will take a few
years to examine and may not be allowed if judged to be not inventive.
Wed, 12 Mar 2014
Sinocorp Resources (476 HK)
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Exhibit 4: Left: Contract for a low temperature battery work Right: Battery for use to ignite a tank for the People’s Army
Source: Company data
Has yet to overcome the production hurdles
Sinocorp Resources has not yet mass produced its proprietary battery systems,
which were only made in a laboratory-like mode in a small factory in Shijiazhuang
near Beijing. The Company has however obtained new factory space in Tianjin
and has recently tendered for the supply and installation of its first production line,
which is to cost about Rmb50m for an annual capacity of 100,000 ampere hours
(to fit for 150 buses). Apart from the difficulties in phase shifting to mass
production mode, the company also has to overcome the cost issues, as polymer
lithium ion batteries usually cost much more than then liquid lithium ion ones, and
the latter are now down to below Rmb1,000 per ampere hour.
The IP issue will only have positive surprises
As polymer lithium ion technology is long matured, there should be no IP conflicts
with the existing car battery manufacturers. If the company is able to patent its
claimed inventive enhancements that has already attracted the endorsement of
HKPC's experts, it will provide a mega bonus to the Company's shareholders.
Acquired 51% in Green Dynamic EV
On 5th March, the company made a voluntary announcement that it has agreed
to buy 51% of the holding company of Green Dynamic EV for HK$20m of cash.
As described in the above, Green Dynamic EV is the initiator and co-sponsor of
Wed, 12 Mar 2014
Sinocorp Resources (476 HK)
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the electric bus project that was endorsed by the HKPC. With its own funding of
about HK$20m and a sponsorship of HK$20m from the HKSAR government, it
undertook to produce 4 electric bus prototypes for road testing by the HKPC in
early 2015. Following the successful development, Green Dynamic will owns the
IP right of the core technologies comprising the overall vehicle design, the
electronic and mechanical vehicle system controller systems, and the remote
diagnosis system for instantly vehicle monitoring and fleet management.
Late last year, Green Dynamic EV signed a MOU with the Wulong county (south
east of Chongqing) to establish a production base for its electric car, which will
involve investing Rmb1bn for an annual capacity of 1,500 buses in a 1.5 sq
kilometer site. However, this planned production base is likely to be shifted to
the Beijing Car City after the new potential investor described below has agreed
to become a strategic shareholder of Sinocorp Resources, and after Green
Dynamic EV become the latter's 51% owned subsidiary.
Beijing Car City Investment Mgmt Company as a strategic investor
Apart from HKPC's endorsement, Sinocorp Resources has also convinced the
Beijing Car City Investment Management Company to invest up to HK$350m to
become a 17.5% owned strategic shareholder, as the Company had announced
on 4th March 2014. This strategic stake is likely to be diluted to about 8% after
the 2.9bn convertible shares owned by the Chairman and Deputy Chairman in
relation to the acquisition of the glauberite mine (announced on 28th February
2014) is fully converted.
Beijing Car City Investment Management Company is a owned by the Shunyi
County of Beijing, and is the holding company owing the 19 square kilometers
Beijing Car City (see Exhibit 5) near the Beijing International Airport, of which
about 6 square kilometers of core area have been developed, and one-half of this
developed area is occupied by the three factories of the Beijing Hyundai Motor
Company (see Exhibit 6) , and from which more than 5m Hyundai vehicles have
been produced since 10 years ago. The Beijing Car City is aimed to become the
largest car production base of Beijing, and it also aims to become one of the
largest aerospace component logistic centers in China, for its proximity to the
Beijing International Airport.
Apart from leasing/selling factory land in the Beijing Car City to the major car
manufacturers, Beijing Car City Investment Management Company also invests
in many enterprises related to car and car component manufacturing, aero space
related companies as well as logistic companies. It also develop some
neighboring sites of the Beijing Car City for commercial and domestic housing. As
such, it is a cash rich investment company owned by the local government of the
Shunyi County. We believe Sinocorp will benefit from the HK$350m cash to
injected from this strategic investor, which will also provide future support for the
Company to establish its electric bus production base in the capital city.
Wed, 12 Mar 2014
Sinocorp Resources (476 HK)
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Exhibit 5: Headquarters of the Beijing Car City
Source: Google, OP research
Exhibit 6: Selected pictures of the Beijing Hyundai Motor Company in the Beijing Car City
Source: Google, OP research
Wed, 12 Mar 2014
Sinocorp Resources (476 HK)
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New Acquisition of a Glauberite Mine
Acquired 100% of the Taowei glauberite mine
On 28th February, the Company completed the acquisition of 100% of a
glauberite mine in Taowei, which is about 60km east of Nanning in the Guangxi
Province (see Exhibit 7). The Taowei glauberite mine is 100% owned by its
Chairman and Deputy Chairman, and it was valued by SRK Consulting
(Australasia) Pty Ltd (“SRK”) at HK$3.72bn as of June 2013, and the company
has acquired it for HK$3bn, by issuing 120m new shares at HK$0.75 each and
3,880m convertible zero-coupon bonds at the same price. When the 3,880m
convertible bonds are fully converted, it will increase the total existing issued
shares of by 152% from the existing 2.56bn shares to 6.44bn shares, and will
create a dilution factor of 0.4 for all the per share data.
Exhibit 7: Location of the Taowei Glauberite Mine 60km east of Nanning
Source: Chengdu University of Technology May 2011
Total estimated sodium sulfate (thenardite) reserves of 236m tones
The Taowei glauberite mine is covering an aggregate area of approximately 8.6
square kilometers. Based on the exploration report prepared in 1994 in
accordance with the Grading and Classification Standards of Solid Mineral
Exploration of the PRC, the Glauberite Mine was estimated to have about 98.6
million tones of sodium sulfate (Na2SO4). The Glauberite Mine, which has
completed the exploration process, is currently pending for the capital injection for
the commencement of exploitation process.
However, according to the SRK, the estimated resources of sodium sulfate (sold
in the market under the common name of thenardite ”元明粉”) of the glauberite
mine was 236 million tones in compliance with the JORC Code, which is
significantly different with the estimation of 98.6 million tones from the above PRC
Classification Standards. The estimation on 98.62 million tones was based on
previous work performed in 1994 from the drilling holes of 4,768 meters, together
with detailed exploration work from 2004 to 2005 to collect the geological data. In
2009, SRK confirmed previous works performed by the PRC expert and provided
recommendations to convert the Chinese-classified Resources to the JORC
Code. SRK then conducted a site visit, drilling additional holes with a total length
Wed, 12 Mar 2014
Sinocorp Resources (476 HK)
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of 4,987 meters and assaying additional samples in 2011. Accordingly, they
re-calculate the mining resources and advised that the estimated sodium sulfate
based on JORC Code was 236 million tones.
The HK$3bn valuation is about 4% of total production cost per ton
SRK also estimated the total capital cost for achieving the production volume of
3.45m tons of thenardite per annum will be about Rmb417m, of which about
Rmb120m will have to be spent in the first year. At the full production rate starting
from the sixth year after the first phase is completed in 2020 (see Exhibit 8), SRK
estimated the total extraction and production cost will be about Rmb277/ton. As
such, the valuation of HK$3bn (Rmb2.4bn) which the company paid for the mine
is adding about Rmb10/ton to the total cost, and the initial capex of Rmb417m will
also add depreciation cost of Rmb2/ton, raising the total production cost to just
below Rmb290/ton, which is about 60% of the low end of the current market price
range of Rmb500-600 for industrial grade thenardite.
Exhibit 8: Forecast thenardite production for Sinocorp (2015-2037)
Source: Company’s circular dated 11 October 2013 for the VSA of the Glauberite Mine
Transportation cost is crucial to the gross margin
Transportation cost for dragging the final thenardite products from the mine site to
the market would be highly significant for many glauberite mines. For those in the
mountains that depends mainly on road transport, such costs could be as high as
Rmb150-200 per ton, reducing the gross margin before selling and admin
expenses to below 15%. For the Company’s Taowei mine, it is only 60km from
the main city of Nanning, so road transport will be just about 1 hour, and after
reaching Nanning, shipping to the final customer by rail or ship would be much
cheaper. As such, we estimate the Company would be able to achieve more than
25% gross margin even only targeting at the lower end industrial market, and it
could target for export to the Southeast Asian countries both by ship and by rail.
Many industrial products require thenardite as raw material
Thenardite is an important raw material used in chemical and light industries and
is used extensively in the manufacture of powder detergents, textiles, glass and
pharmaceutical products. Besides, thenardite is classified by its purity, color,
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
(Tonnes per annum)
Wed, 12 Mar 2014
Sinocorp Resources (476 HK)
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density, pH content and inclusion of other minerals. It can be processed into
different forms for different end-use requirements.
Detergents. Thenardite is used in powder laundry and dishwasher
detergents as a processing aid. Powder detergents account for 25% to 30%
of the total demand for thenardite and is the largest market for thenardite in
the world. Recently, the demand for thenardite has increased due to the
following reasons:
Textiles. In the textile industry, thenardite is used in the dye baths to drive
the dye from the solution onto the textile fibers. Unlike sodium chloride,
thenardite does not corrode the stainless steel vessels and as a leveling
agent, it also allows the dyes to penetrate evenly into the fibers.
Glass. Thenardite helps remove small air bubbles in molten glass and
prevents scum formation on the surface of the molten glass in the refining
stage. The glass industry and consequent consumption of thenardite
depends on the demand in the construction and automobile industries.
Paper and pulp. Thenardite is used in the Kraft process (sulfate process) of
wood pulp manufacturing, during which wood chips are impregnated with
thenardite and then heated to cause the thenardite to reduce into sodium
sulfide, so that the bond in the wood cellulose will break, making it malleable.
Drying and thermal storage. In the laboratory, thenardite is often used as
an inert drying compound for organic materials. Another main use of it is in
thermal storage for its high heat storage capacity, doesn’t liquefy until 32˚C.
As such, it is used to store heat in thermal tiles, and in solar-heated water
storage tanks.
Food and medical. Thenardite is used as a food ingredient and also in
medicines because of its mild laxative properties and anti-inflammatory
properties. Medical thenardite requires the purity of at least 99.0%. Quality
control standards on the production of both food and medical thenardite are
high. Manufacturing is also certified, regulated and closely monitored by
government agencies. Owing to the huge extra capital cost, Sinocorp
Resources will not target food and medical for its thenardite products.
China is the world’s biggest consumer and producer of thenardite
Glauberite is one of the abundant non-marine evaporates in the PRC. Glauberite
is highly soluble and when mixed with water transforms into mirabilite. Mirabilite is
an aqueous mixture that is then dehydrated and processed into thenardite. China
has abundant thenardite supply. In 2010, it produced about 8.5 million tons of
thenardite, of which 5.6m tons are domestically consumed and exported the
remaining 2.9m tons. Within China, the Sichuan Province is the largest producer
of thenardite, accounting for about one half of the nation’s total production. Exhibit
9 below shows the projected production of thenardite in China for 2016-2035F as
prepared by the Chengdu University of Technology in 2011.
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Sinocorp Resources (476 HK)
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Exhibit 9: Thenardite consumption projection for the PRC (2016-2034)
Source: Chengdu University of Technology May 2011
Thenardite price trend and fluctuations
According to the US Geological Survey (USGS), the average world selling price
of sodium sulfate has remained stable at approximately US$134 per ton from
2007 to 2010. The estimated average selling price is slightly increased to
approximately US$140 (Rmb 840) per ton in 2011.
In China, the most reliable price data for thernadite is available from the annual
reports of Lumena (stock code 67.HK), which is the biggest medical and industrial
grade thernadite producer in China. For the industrial grade, Lumena had report
falling ASP each year, down from Rmb702/ton in 2010 to Rmb670/ton in 2011
and Rmb500/ton in 2012. For 1H 2013, the ASP fell further to Rmb453m/ton. In
reverse, Lumena’s medical grade thernadite had reported price gains every years,
up from Rmb2,636/ton in 2010 to Rmb3,064/ton in 2011 and Rmb3,376/ton in
2012. For 1H 2013, the ASP for medical grade rise further to Rmb3,522/ton.
Implications for Sinocorp Resources
If the latest ASP of Rmb453/ton of Lumena’s industrial grade thernadite continues
to stay, the estimated margin for the Company’s Taowei mine will only about 35%
ex-factory, i.e., before transportation and selling costs, which would require at
least 20% of ASP. With gross margin of less than 15%, it would be too risky for
the company to commence construction of the Rmb460m plant for the newly
acquired Taowei mine. As such, we believe over the next two to three years,
Sinocorp Resources should focus on developing its new electric bus business,
which is likely to have a bigger chance of success given the support from the
HKSAR/HKPC, and the help form the Beijing Car City Investment Management
Company Limited. After all, the long-term demand for thernadite is very strong
(see Exhibit 9 in the above), but large scale (over 100m tons) glauberite mine are
quite rare in China. As such, the Taowei mine is probably still a pretty good
longer-term investment for the Company.
15.4
18.5 19.8
21.8
24.4
27.2
29.4 30.6
32.0 32.6
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
2016E 2018E 2020E 2022E 2024E 2026E 2028E 2030E 2032E 2034E
(mn tonne)
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Sinocorp Resources (476 HK)
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Recent Fund Raisings
After a series of four placements for a total of about 605m new shares at HK$0.60
per share during the last few months, Sinocorp has already secured about
HK$350 of new cash. Furthermore the placement of 450m new shares to be
placed to the Beijing Car City Investment Management Limited and other
investors at HK$0.73 to HK$0.83 per share would bring another HK$350m of
cash if concluded at the mid-price of HK$0.78. With these new cash, Sinocorp
can construct at least a couple of new production lines for its polymer lithium ion
batteries, and also start constructing its bus assembly plants in Beijing.
Risks
Battery production may not succeed The company is lack of
manufacturing experience in the past. Mass production of battery systems
would require stringent quality control and sophisticated automation
equipment, which will take time to acquire. It is fortunate now that the
Company has acquired sufficient cash to pay for the needed expertise and
equipment.
Fierce competitions in the EV market Almost every major and second
tier cities in China have their own electric bus acquisition program, many of
which are not wholly commercially driven. For Sinocorp Resources, the
blessing form the HKSAR and the HKPC would certainly put the company in
a strong and competitive position if it is able to deliver the prototype cars in
time and also to complete the road tests satisfactorily.
Thenardite prices are still falling At current price levels for the industrial
grade thenardite, it would be highly risky to start construction of the new
glauberite extraction and processing plants. However, the company has big
advantage for its short transport distance to the Nanning where its products
can be further transported cheaply by ship or by rail. As such, when
thenardite prices start improving, the company will become highly
competitive.
Lack of profitable track record Owing to the water supply issue with its
copper mine in Chile, the company has never been able to start selling the
copper ore. Its iron ore trading business was also merely cash breakeven in
the past. In fact, the company reported losses every year since 1998 when
the current management took over from the previous ones, with total
accumulated losses of HK$762m.
Valuation
Despite the above mentioned risks and lack of profitable track record, we believe
the new electric bus acquisition could allow the Company to enter into the exciting
EV market, particularly given the blessings of the HKPC and the Beijing Car City.
After all, Hong Kong has a huge bus fleet size of almost 6,000 franchised buses
and a couple of thousands non-franchised ones. The newly acquired glauberite
mine is one of the rarely founded large scale thenardite reserves, which is good
for long term investments given the strong overall demand for thenardite by the
many different industries.
Wed, 12 Mar 2014
Sinocorp Resources (476 HK)
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26/02/2014 Hutchtel 215 FY13 results miss SELL Yuji Fung/ Cindy Li
26/02/2014 TCL COMM 2618 FY13 result beat BUY Yuji Fung/ Cindy Li
25/02/2014 TCL Multimedia 1070 FY13 result miss; transition in business model yet to
come
HOLD Yuji Fung/ Cindy Li
18/02/2014 China Animal Healthcare 940 Favorable acquisitions BUY Min Li/ Jose Xu
14/02/2014 Smartone 315 Disappointing FY1H14 result is expected HOLD Yuji Fung/ Cindy Li
29/01/2014 Century Sunshine 509 IFC onboard BUY Min Li/ Jose Xu
22/01/2014 Meidong Auto 1268 Profit Does Matter NR Vivien Chan
20/01/2014 Sunny Optical 2382 Further invest into technology HOLD Yuji Fung/ Cindy Li
17/01/2014 Antonoil 3337 4Q13 operational data inline BUY Min Li/ Jose Xu
16/01/2014 JUTAL 3303 Site visit takeaway BUY Min Li/ Jose Xu
15/01/2014 Great Wall Motor 2333 Correction provides entry point BUY Vivien Chan
13/01/2014 China Fiber Optic Network 3777 Reiterate BUY on promising FY13 and better outlook
in FY14
BUY Yuji Fung
10/01/2014 Tiangong 826 It is the company's titanium times now BUY Vivien Chan/ Henry
Kwong
08/01/2014 TCL Multimedia 1070 FY13 TV sales in-line HOLD Yuji Fung/ Cindy Li
08/01/2014 TCL COMM 2618 FY13 handset sales beat BUY Yuji Fung/ Cindy Li
06/01/2014 Youyuan 2268 Taking advantages of de-inked pulp BUY Vivien Chan
23/12/2013 Paradise Entertainment 1180 Two engines to drive growth in 2014 BUY Min Li/ Jose Xu
23/12/2013 PAX Global 327 Payment Solution Pioneer BUY Vivien Chan
18/12/2013 Sunny Optical 2382 Shipment recovered from flood HOLD Yuji Fung/ Cindy Li
17/12/2013 Ju Teng Intl 3336 Promising outlook, reiterate BUY BUY Yuji Fung/ Cindy Li
17/12/2013 Sinomedia 623 Stable yet postponed growth BUY Yuji Fung/ Cindy Li
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