Meteorology 415Meteorology 415

Fall 2009Fall 2009

Weather & Forecasting- Aug Weather & Forecasting- Aug 20092009

ABSTRACTABSTRACT► Daily values of forecast scores are evaluated for students in a Daily values of forecast scores are evaluated for students in a

weather analysis and forecasting class (ATMS 452) offered by weather analysis and forecasting class (ATMS 452) offered by the Department of Atmospheric Sciences of the University of the Department of Atmospheric Sciences of the University of Washington during the spring terms of 1997–2007. The Washington during the spring terms of 1997–2007. The objective of this study is to determine the rate at which senior-objective of this study is to determine the rate at which senior-level undergraduate students develop proficiency at short-term level undergraduate students develop proficiency at short-term (next day) weather forecasting. Separate analyses are carried (next day) weather forecasting. Separate analyses are carried out for different categories of forecast parameters. Time series out for different categories of forecast parameters. Time series of the average skill achieved over the course of the quarter are of the average skill achieved over the course of the quarter are presented for the median and the best–worst two student presented for the median and the best–worst two student forecasters each year. An overall improvement in student forecasters each year. An overall improvement in student forecast skill occurs over roughly the first 6 weeks of the forecast skill occurs over roughly the first 6 weeks of the quarter, followed by minimal systematic changes. Negligible quarter, followed by minimal systematic changes. Negligible trends in average forecast skill have occurred over the past 10 trends in average forecast skill have occurred over the past 10 yr. The correlation coefficient between the students’ overall yr. The correlation coefficient between the students’ overall forecast performance and test scores in ATMS 452 is about 0.4. forecast performance and test scores in ATMS 452 is about 0.4. The results are relevant to the design of effective instructional The results are relevant to the design of effective instructional programs for weather forecasting.programs for weather forecasting.

Development of Forecast Development of Forecast SkillSkill

More Deterministic with Bins for Precipitation

Development of Forecast Development of Forecast SkillSkill

Forecast Types are analogous to our Temps/Precip/Winds/Events

Development of Forecast Development of Forecast SkillSkill

Development of Forecast Development of Forecast SkillSkill

Development of a GrandpaDevelopment of a Grandpa