south bend, in meteorology 415 – fall 2012 second contest fourth day
TRANSCRIPT
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South Bend, INMeteorology 415 – Fall 2012
Second Contest
Fourth Day
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South BendPopulation (2010)
•City 101,168
• Density 2,787/sq mi (1,075.9/km2)
• Metro 316,663
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South bend - OBS
• KSBN 091754Z 22017G20KT 10SM CLR 16/03 A2995 RMK AO2 PK WND 19026/1733 SLP144 T01560028 10167 20056 58022=
• KSBN 091854Z 19016G23KT 10SM CLR 17/03 A2991 RMK AO2 SLP131 T01670033=
• KSBN 091954Z 20016G25KT 10SM CLR 17/03 A2990 RMK AO2 PK WND 20027/1921 SLP127 T01720028=
• KSBN 092054Z 20016G22KT 10SM CLR 17/03 A2989 RMK AO2 PK WND 21026/1958 SLP124 T01720033 56019=
• KSBN 092154Z 21013KT 10SM CLR 16/04 A2989 RMK AO2 SLP121 T01610039=
• KSBN 092254Z 19010KT 10SM CLR 16/04 A2988 RMK AO2 SLP118 T01560039=
• KSBN 092354Z 20009KT 10SM CLR 14/04 A2988 RMK AO2 SLP119 T01440039 10178 20144 56006=
• KSBN 100054Z 19008KT 10SM CLR 13/04 A2988 RMK AO2 SLP120 T01330044=
• KSBN 100154Z 20011KT 10SM BKN100 13/04 A2986 RMK AO2 SLP112 T01330044=
• KSBN 100254Z 20011KT 10SM BKN065 OVC095 13/04 A2985 RMK AO2 SLP109 T01330044 58007=
• KSBN 100347Z 32017G21KT 7SM -RA FEW025 BKN042 OVC050 10/08 A2988 RMK AO2 WSHFT 0327 RAB36 P0000=
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South bend - OBS• KSBN 100254Z 20011KT 10SM BKN065 OVC095 13/04 A2985 RMK AO2 SLP109 T01330044 58007=
• KSBN 100347Z 32017G21KT 7SM -RA FEW025 BKN042 OVC050 10/08 A2988 RMK AO2 WSHFT 0327 RAB36 P0000=
• KSBN 100354Z 32014G22KT 10SM -RA FEW025 BKN035 OVC045 09/07 A2989 RMK AO2 WSHFT 0327 RAB36 SLP122 P0000 T00940072=
• KSBN 100408Z 33010KT 5SM RA BR BKN010 BKN024 OVC040 09/07 A2989 RMK AO2 CIG 008V018 P0001=
• KSBN 100429Z 32012G19KT 4SM +RA BR BKN008 BKN026 OVC032 08/06 A2990 RMK AO2 P0009=
• KSBN 100429Z 32012G19KT 4SM +RA BR BKN008 BKN026 OVC032 08/06A2990=
• KSBN 100436Z 33010KT 4SM +RA BR SCT008 BKN033 OVC046 08/06 A2990 RMK AO2 P0012=
• KSBN 100454Z 32009KT 7SM RA FEW008 SCT024 OVC040 08/06 A2990 RMK AO2 SLP126 P0016 T00780061 401780050=
• KSBN 100506Z 33009KT 8SM -RA FEW008 BKN029 OVC049 08/06 A2990 RMK AO2 P0002=
• KSBN 100513Z 32008KT 8SM -RA FEW029 OVC047 08/06 A2990 RMK AO2 P0002=
• KSBN 100554Z 31009KT 6SM RA BR FEW020 BKN037 OVC055 07/06 A2991 RMK AO2 SLP129 P0009 60025 T00720056 10144 20072 51018=
• KSBN 100654Z 29008KT 10SM -RA OVC050 07/05 A2990 RMK AO2 SLP128 P0003 T00670050=
• KSBN 100754Z 28005KT 10SM -RA BKN035 OVC055 06/04 A2990 RMK AO2 SLP128 P0005 T00610039=
• KSBN 100828Z 23005KT 10SM BKN021 OVC030 06/04 A2991 RMK AO2 RAE0757 P0000=
• KSBN 100854Z 23007KT 10SM BKN019 BKN027 OVC039 06/04 A2991 RMK AO2 RAE0757 SLP130 P0000 60008 T00610044 53001=
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South bend - OBS• KSBN 100909Z 24009KT 10SM FEW012 SCT027 OVC050 06/04 A2991 RMK AO2=
• KSBN 100954Z 24009KT 10SM BKN055 06/04 A2992 RMK AO2 SLP132 T00560039=
• KSBN 101054Z 24008KT 8SM FEW029 SCT037 OVC045 06/04 A2993 RMK AO2 SLP138 T00560044=
• KSBN 101154Z 23009KT 7SM BKN050 05/04 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP145 60008 70033 T00500039 10072 20050 53015=
• KSBN 101254Z 25009KT 7SM FEW032 SCT041 BKN048 05/03 A2998 RMK AO2 SLP156 T00500033=
• KSBN 101354Z 25013G19KT 10SM BKN049 08/04 A3001 RMK AO2 SLP164 T00780044=
• KSBN 101443Z 27012KT 10SM BKN025 OVC045 07/03 A3003 RMK AO2=
• KSBN 101454Z 27011KT 10SM SCT023 BKN040 OVC048 07/03 A3004 RMK AO2 SLP173 T00720028 51028=
• KSBN 101458Z 27013KT 10SM BKN023 BKN029 OVC046 07/03 A3004=
• KSBN 101458Z 27013KT 10SM BKN023 BKN029 OVC046 07/03 A3004 RMK AO2=
• KSBN 101454Z 27011KT 10SM SCT023 BKN040 OVC048 07/03 A3004=
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South bend surface map
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South bend - satellite
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South bend -radar
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South bend - radar
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South bend - verifications
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South bend - survey scores
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South bend – career scores
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South bend – up close and personal
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South bend – lessons learned
• Timing the front helped to determine the temperature and wind direction change.
• Extra rainfall associated with more convergence and perhaps some added urban condensation nuclei
• The MOS errors were useful mainly for dew point adjustments. The heavier showers dropped the 0-6z min lower than expected due to evap cooling.
• Best forecasts are produced when you are closer to the location (like Madison ).
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City two: paso robles, CA
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Paso robles - Obs• KPRB 100253Z AUTO 19008KT 10SM CLR 16/10 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP141 T01610100 53013 TSNO=
• KPRB 100353Z AUTO 21006G18KT 10SM CLR 15/11 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP144 T01500106 TSNO=
• KPRB 100453Z AUTO 21007KT 10SM BKN080 15/11 A2998 RMK AO2 SLP149 T01500106 TSNO=
• KPRB 100553Z AUTO 21006KT 10SM FEW075 BKN085 14/11 A2998 RMK AO2 SLP148 T01440111 10233 20144 51009 TSNO=
• KPRB 100653Z AUTO 22003KT 10SM BKN085 14/11 A2998 RMK AO2 SLP146 T01440106 TSNO=
• KPRB 100753Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM CLR 13/11 A2998 RMK AO2 SLP146 T01280106 402560078 TSNO=
• KPRB 100853Z AUTO 05003KT 10SM CLR 12/10 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP143 T01170100 58004 TSNO=
• KPRB 100953Z AUTO 12004KT 10SM CLR 10/08 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP141 T01000083 TSNO=
• KPRB 101053Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM CLR 09/08 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP137 T00940078 TSNO=
• KPRB 101153Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM FEW021 09/07 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP139 T00890072 10144 20089 55005 TSNO=
• KPRB 101218Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM BKN019 09/08 A2995 RMK AO2 TSNO=
• KPRB 101244Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM SCT019 OVC065 09/08 A2996 RMK AO2 TSNO=
• KPRB 101253Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM FEW019 OVC065 09/08 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP141 T00940078 TSNO=
• KPRB 101353Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM FEW021 OVC070 10/08 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP144 T01000083 TSNO=
• KPRB 101406Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM BKN021 BKN049 OVC070 10/08 A2996 RMK AO2 TSNO=
• KPRB 101413Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM SCT021 SCT049 OVC070 11/08 A2996 RMK AO2 TSNO=
• KPRB 101453Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM OVC070 11/09 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP144 T01110089 50004 TSNO=
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Paso robles - Obs
• KPRB 101453Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM OVC070 11/09 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP144 T01110089 50004 TSNO=
• KPRB 101553Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM CLR 12/09 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP145 T01220094 TSNO=
• KPRB 101653Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM BKN031 OVC065 16/11 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP144 T01560106 TSNO=
• KPRB 101753Z AUTO 15006KT 10SM CLR 18/11 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP140 T01830106 10183 20083 58003 TSNO=
• KPRB 101853Z AUTO 20012G19KT 10SM SCT029 BKN060 OVC070 16/12 A2997 RMK AO2 RAB30E48 SLP144 P0002 T01560117 TSNO=
• KPRB 101953Z AUTO 21009KT 10SM -RA FEW042 BKN070 17/12 A2996 RMK AO2 RAB07 SLP142 P0000 T01720117 TSNO=
• KPRB 102053Z AUTO 22009KT 10SM SCT065 BKN080 18/11 A2993 RMK AO2 RAE09 SLP133 P0000 60002 T01830106 58008 TSNO=
• KPRB 102153Z AUTO 19006KT 10SM SCT090 19/10 A2991 RMK AO2 SLP126 T01890100 TSNO=
• KPRB 102253Z AUTO VRB05KT 10SM FEW070 19/09 A2991 RMK AO2 SLP124 T01940094 TSNO=
• KPRB 102353Z AUTO 22005KT 10SM FEW060 BKN090 19/08 A2990 RMK AO2 SLP121 60002 T01940083 10200 20156 56012 TSNO=
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Paso robles - Obs
• KPRB 102353Z AUTO 22005KT 10SM FEW060 BKN090 19/08 A2990 RMK AO2 SLP121 60002 T01940083 10200 20156 56012 TSNO=
• KPRB 110053Z AUTO 23008KT 10SM SCT065 19/08 A2990 RMK AO2 SLP121 T01890078 TSNO=
• KPRB 110153Z AUTO 20005KT 10SM CLR 17/08 A2992 RMK AO2 SLP128 T01670078 TSNO=
• KPRB 110253Z AUTO 20009KT 10SM SCT065 OVC090 15/11 A2993 RMK AO2 SLP132 T01500106 53011 TSNO=
• KPRB 110353Z AUTO 22003KT 10SM BKN095 14/11 A2993 RMK AO2 SLP134 T01440106 TSNO=
• KPRB 110453Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM BKN100 14/10 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP137 T01390100 TSNO=
• KPRB 110553Z AUTO 30003KT 10SM BKN080 13/09 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP134 T01280094 10200 20122 50003 TSNO=
• KPRB 110653Z AUTO 29006KT 10SM BKN065 13/11 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP135 T01280106 TSNO=
• KPRB 110734Z AUTO 27005KT 10SM SCT007 BKN080 12/10 A2993 RMK AO2 TSNO=
• KPRB 110748Z AUTO 28004KT 10SM BKN007 BKN080 12/10 A2993 RMK AO2 402000083 TSNO=
• KPRB 110653Z AUTO 29006KT 10SM BKN065 13/11 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP135 T01280106 TSNO=
• KPRB 110734Z AUTO 27005KT 10SM SCT007 BKN080 12/10 A2993 RMK AO2 TSNO=
• KPRB 110748Z AUTO 28004KT 10SM BKN007 BKN080 12/10 A2993 RMK AO2 402000083 TSNO=
• KPRB 110753Z AUTO 27003KT 10SM BKN007 BKN080 12/10 A2992 RMK AO2 SLP130 T01170100 402000083 TSNO=
• KPRB 110853Z AUTO 27004KT 10SM OVC007 12/11 A2992 RMK AO2 SLP129 T01220106 56005 TSNO=
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Paso robles - surface
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Paso robles – upper air
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Paso robles - satellite
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Paso robles - radar
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Paso robles - verification
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Career scores
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Up close and personal
• Seems it never rains in southern CaliforniaSeems I've often heard that kind of talk beforeIt never rains in California, but girl, don't they warn ya?It pours, man, it pours
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Lessons learned
• The formation of upper level lows along the west coast leads to sporadic showers that are mainly related to local effects.
• Despite the increased daytime instability, the marine layer can and does return at night, particularly on the north side of the low.
• Winds are driven by terrain when there is no distinct surface feature.
• An upper level low drops temperatures below seasonal levels and decreases the diurnal variation.