methodology for vulnerability risk analysis · october 26, 2014 city of portland, oregon // bureau...

Methodology for Vulnerability Risk Analysis

a. Analysis Tool The vulnerability analysis involves assigning a “vulnerability score” that can range between 0 and 4 for each of the census tracts based on four risk factors. The following table details the risk factors, the evaluation criteria and the scoring method:

Risk Factor

Evaluation Criteria Vulnerability Score:

Yes (1)

Vulnerability Score: No (0)

% Renters

Is proportion of renters in the census tract greater than 45.6%?

1 0

% Communities of Color (CoC)

Is proportion of CoC in the census tract greater than 27.4%?

1 0

% Population age 25+ without bachelor’s degree

Is proportion of population 25+ without bachelor’s degree in the census tract greater than 56.3%?

1 0

% Households with income at or below 80% MFI

Is proportion of households with income at or below 80% MFI in the census tract greater than 43.7%?

1 0

Vulnerability Score

Max: 4

Min: 0

Every census tract gets evaluated based on the above listed criteria and the total scores on the four risk factors are added to get the overall “vulnerability scores”. Census tracts that score at least 3 out of maximum 4 are defined as “vulnerable census tracts”.

b. Calculation of Threshold

Risk Factor (a‐d)

Citywide (Portland) proportion

Margin of Error for the estimate (MoE)

Calculation of threshold (adjusted to lower bound of MoE)

% Renters

46.2% +/‐ 0.6

45.6% (46.2 ‐0.6)

% Communities of Color

27.7% +/‐ 0.3

27.4% (27.7‐0.3)

% Population age 25+ without bachelor’s degree

56.9% +/‐ 0.6

56.3% (56.9‐0.6)

% Households with income at or below 80% MFIⱡ

43.7% N/A

No correction

Source: 2008‐2012 American Community Survey (ACS); ⱡ2007‐2011 Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy data released by U.S. Dept. of Housing & Urban Development (HUD). No MoE is available for CHAS data.

c. Data sources Data for the first three risk factors was drawn from tract‐level 2008‐2012 American Community Survey (ACS) estimates. Communities of Color (CoC) is defined as all residents except for Non‐Hispanic Whites.

The percentage of households with incomes at or below 80% of the HUD‐adjusted MFI was calculated from 2007‐2011 HUD Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy (CHAS) data. The values relevant to this calculation come from Table 8 of the census tracts dataset. Tracts with boundaries in more than one local jurisdiction are split into multiple rows; values for each portion were summed before calculating percentages for the overall tract. For FY 2011 HUD‐adjusted MFI for the Portland‐Vancouver‐Hillsboro, OR‐WA area was $72,900. So, the 80% MFI is equal to $57,600 for a four person household. d. Products of the 2012 Analysis The six maps depict the 2012 vulnerability analysis for the City of Portland:

I. Risk Factor Maps (a‐d): a. Vulnerability 2012 renters : all census tracts that scored 1 on rent factor evaluation; b. Vulnerability 2012 Communities of Color (CoC): all census tracts that scored 1 on CoC evaluation; c. Vulnerability 2012 bachelor’s degree: all census tracts that scored 1 on bachelor’s degree evaluation; d. Vulnerability 2012 MFI 80: all census tracts that scored 1 on households at or below 80% MFI

evaluation;

II. Vulnerability 2012 Maps: a. Vulnerability 2012 Risk Scores: the map shows total risk scores that range from 0 to 4 for every

census tract in Portland. b. Vulnerability 2012: composite map that shows all census tracts that have 3‐4 total risk scores from

the aforementioned risk factors and thereby get identified as “vulnerable” census tracts. Note: Map layers of Vulnerability Analysis are available for City Bureaus in the CGIS Layer Manager. For questions/clarifications on methodology contact Uma Krishnan, 503‐823‐5771

Portland

Lake

HappyMilwaukie

Vancouver

MaywoodPark

Wood Troutdale

Beaverton

Tigard

Gresham

Valley

Oswego

Camas

VillageFairview

I-205

I-5

I-205HWY

217

I-405

I-84

US 30

LEWIS & CLARK HWY

500HWY

HWYMcLOUGHLIN BLVD

HWY 224

HWY 99E

99-W

STARK ST

FOURTHFR

UITVAL

LEY

ANDR

ESEN

PLAIN

164TH

1ST ST

COLUMBIA

SANDYBLVD

FARMINGTON

RD

82ND

DIVISION ST

RD

West Union

Aloha

Burlington

Boring

Orchards

WASHINGTONOREGON

Willamette

Multnomah Channel

River

LacamasLake

CooperMtn

BullMtn

MtTalbert

MtScott

PortlandAirport

F o r e s t P a r k

Hayden Island

Government Island

162ND

MILLBLVD

PLAIN

HWY

500

500

HWY

SR-501

18TH ST

138TH

AV

53RD ST

20TH ST

34TH ST

28TH ST

RD

REEDE

RRD

BLVD

CANYONRD

FERRYRD

LOMBARD

RD

HALL

BLVD

RD

OLESON

BA R N ES

185TH

AVE

MURR

AYBLV

D

HWYHILLSDALEBEAVERTON

RDCORNELL

UNION

RD

170TH

AV

122ND

RD

FOSTER

182ND

RDSUNNYSIDE

MACADAM AVE

SANDYBLVD

ST

AIRPORTWAY

HALSEY ST

KILLINGSWORTH ST

112TH

POWELL BLVD

BURNSIDE ST

148TH

22 3RD

282ND

KING RD

BOONES

FERRY R

DPRESCOTT ST

GLISAN ST

172ND

AV

222ND

DR

190TH

DR

TELFORD RD

242ND

DRMARINE

BLVD

Sauvie Island

International

CLACKAMAS CO.MULTNOMAH CO.

Columbia

River

SmithLake

BybeeLake

12TH

VAUGHN 102N D

CESAR

E. CH

AVEZ

M. L. K

ING

BARBUR B

LVD

I-5I-5

AVEINT

E RST A

TE

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2006-2010 ACS / HUD 2005-2009 CHASN 0 3,500 7,000 10,500FeetOctober 26, 2014City of Portland, Oregon // Bureau of Planning & Sustainability // Geographic Information System N

August 6, 2014City of Portland, Oregon // Bureau of Planning & Sustainability // Geographic Information System

2012 Risk factors:a) renters > 45.6%b) communities of color > 27.4%c) pop. age 25+ without bachelor's degree > 56.3%d) households at or below 80% MFI > 43.7%Data Sources:1. 2008-2012 American Community Survey (ACS)2. U.S. Dept. of Housing and Urban DevelopmentCHAS Data, 2007-2011

Vulnerability3-4 Total Risk FactorsCity boundary

S:\gis\Projects\Gentrification_Risk\Maps\Vulnerability2012.mxd0 5,000 10,000Feet

Vulnerability: 2012

Portland

Lake

HappyMilwaukie

Vancouver

MaywoodPark

Wood Troutdale

Beaverton

Tigard

Gresham

Valley

Oswego

Camas

VillageFairview

I-205

I-5

I-205HWY

217

I-405

I-84

US 30

LEWIS & CLARK HWY

500HWY

HWYMcLOUGHLIN BLVD

HWY 224

HWY 99E

99-W

STARK ST

FOURTHFR

UITVAL

LEY

ANDR

ESEN

PLAIN

164TH

1ST ST

COLUMBIA

SANDYBLVD

FARMINGTON

RD

82ND

DIVISION ST

RD

West Union

Aloha

Burlington

Boring

Orchards

WASHINGTONOREGON

Willamette

Multnomah Channel

River

LacamasLake

CooperMtn

BullMtn

MtTalbert

MtScott

PortlandAirport

F o r e s t P a r k

Hayden Island

Government Island

162ND

MILLBLVD

PLAIN

HWY

500

500

HWY

SR-501

18TH ST

138TH

AV

53RD ST

20TH ST

34TH ST

28TH ST

RD

REEDE

RRD

BLVD

CANYONRD

FERRYRD

LOMBARD

RD

HALL

BLVD

RD

OLESON

BA R N ES

185TH

AVE

MURR

AYBLV

D


RDCORNELL

UNION

RD

170TH

AV

122ND

RD

FOSTER

182ND

RDSUNNYSIDE

MACADAM AVE

SANDYBLVD

ST

AIRPORTWAY

HALSEY ST

KILLINGSWORTH ST

112TH

POWELL BLVD

BURNSIDE ST

148TH

22 3RD

282ND

KING RD

BOONES

FERRY R

DPRESCOTT ST

GLISAN ST

172ND

AV

222ND

DR

190TH

DR

TELFORD RD

242ND

DRMARINE

BLVD

Sauvie Island

International


Columbia

River

SmithLake

BybeeLake

12TH

VAUGHN 102N D

CESAR

E. CH

AVEZ

M. L. K

ING

BARBUR B

LVD

I-5I-5

AVEINT

E RST A

TE




Total Risk Factors01234City boundary

S:\gis\Projects\Gentrification_Risk\Maps\Vulnerability2012_Score.mxd0 5,000 10,000Feet

2012 Vulnerability Risk Factors

Portland

Lake

HappyMilwaukie

Vancouver

MaywoodPark

Wood Troutdale

Beaverton

Tigard

Gresham

Valley

Oswego

Camas

VillageFairview

I-205

I-5

I-205HWY

217

I-405

I-84

US 30

LEWIS & CLARK HWY

500HWY

HWYMcLOUGHLIN BLVD

HWY 224

HWY 99E

99-W

STARK ST

FOURTHFR

UITVAL

LEY

ANDR

ESEN

PLAIN

164TH

1ST ST

COLUMBIA

SANDYBLVD

FARMINGTON

RD

82ND

DIVISION ST

RD

West Union

Aloha

Burlington

Boring

Orchards

WASHINGTONOREGON

Willamette

Multnomah Channel

River

LacamasLake

CooperMtn

BullMtn

MtTalbert

MtScott

PortlandAirport

F o r e s t P a r k

Hayden Island

Government Island

162ND

MILLBLVD

PLAIN

HWY

500

500

HWY

SR-501

18TH ST

138TH

AV

53RD ST

20TH ST

34TH ST

28TH ST

RD

REEDE

RRD

BLVD

CANYONRD

FERRYRD

LOMBARD

RD

HALL

BLVD

RD

OLESON

BA R N ES

185TH

AVE

MURR

AYBLV

D


RDCORNELL

UNION

RD

170TH

AV

122ND

RD

FOSTER

182ND

RDSUNNYSIDE

MACADAM AVE

SANDYBLVD

ST

AIRPORTWAY

HALSEY ST

KILLINGSWORTH ST

112TH

POWELL BLVD

BURNSIDE ST

148TH

22 3RD

282ND

KING RD

BOONES

FERRY R

DPRESCOTT ST

GLISAN ST

172ND

AV

222ND

DR

190TH

DR

TELFORD RD

242ND

DRMARINE

BLVD

Sauvie Island

International


Columbia

River

SmithLake

BybeeLake

12TH

VAUGHN 102N D

CESAR

E. CH

AVEZ

M. L. K

ING

BARBUR B

LVD

I-5I-5

AVEINT

E RST A

TE




VulnerabilityShare of Households that arerenters greater than 45.6%City boundary


2012 Vulnerability Risk Factor A: Renters

Portland

Lake

HappyMilwaukie

Vancouver

MaywoodPark

Wood Troutdale

Beaverton

Tigard

Gresham

Valley

Oswego

Camas

VillageFairview

I-205

I-5

I-205HWY

217

I-405

I-84

US 30

LEWIS & CLARK HWY

500HWY

HWYMcLOUGHLIN BLVD

HWY 224

HWY 99E

99-W

STARK ST

FOURTHFR

UITVAL

LEY

ANDR

ESEN

PLAIN

164TH

1ST ST

COLUMBIA

SANDYBLVD

FARMINGTON

RD

82ND

DIVISION ST

RD

West Union

Aloha

Burlington

Boring

Orchards

WASHINGTONOREGON

Willamette

Multnomah Channel

River

LacamasLake

CooperMtn

BullMtn

MtTalbert

MtScott

PortlandAirport

F o r e s t P a r k

Hayden Island

Government Island

162ND

MILLBLVD

PLAIN

HWY

500

500

HWY

SR-501

18TH ST

138TH

AV

53RD ST

20TH ST

34TH ST

28TH ST

RD

REEDE

RRD

BLVD

CANYONRD

FERRYRD

LOMBARD

RD

HALL

BLVD

RD

OLESON

BA R N ES

185TH

AVE

MURR

AYBLV

D


RDCORNELL

UNION

RD

170TH

AV

122ND

RD

FOSTER

182ND

RDSUNNYSIDE

MACADAM AVE

SANDYBLVD

ST

AIRPORTWAY

HALSEY ST

KILLINGSWORTH ST

112TH

POWELL BLVD

BURNSIDE ST

148TH

22 3RD

282ND

KING RD

BOONES

FERRY R

DPRESCOTT ST

GLISAN ST

172ND

AV

222ND

DR

190TH

DR

TELFORD RD

242ND

DRMARINE

BLVD

Sauvie Island

International


Columbia

River

SmithLake

BybeeLake

12TH

VAUGHN 102N D

CESAR

E. CH

AVEZ

M. L. K

ING

BARBUR B

LVD

I-5I-5

AVEINT

E RST A

TE




VulnerabilityCommunities of Color greater than27.4%City boundary


2012 Vulnerability Risk Factor B: Communities of Color

P ortland

Lake

Hap p yMilwaukie

Vanc ouver

MaywoodP ark

W ood Troutd ale

Beaverton

Tigard

Gresham

Valley

Oswego

Cam as

VillageFairview

I-205

I-5

I-205HW Y

217

I-405

I-84

US 30

LEW IS & CLARK HW Y

500HW Y

HW YMcLOUGHLINBLVD

HW Y 224

HW Y99E

99-W

STARK ST

FOURTHFR

UITVAL

LEY

ANDR

ESEN

P LAIN

164TH

1ST ST

COLUMBIA

SANDYBLVD

FARMINGTON

RD

82ND

DIVISION ST

RD

W est Union

Aloha

Burlington

Boring

Orc hard s

W ASHINGTONOREGON

Willam ette

Multno m ah Channel

River

Lacam asLake

Coop erMtn

BullMtn

MtTalb ert

MtSc ott

P ortlandAirp ort

Fo rest P ark

Hayd en Island

Governm ent Island

162ND

MILLBLVD

P LAIN

HW Y

500

500

HWY

SR-501

18TH ST

138TH

AV

53RDST

20TH ST

34TH ST

28TH ST

RD

REEDE

RRD

BLVD

CANYONRD

FERRYRD

LOMBARD

RD

HALL

BLVD

RD

OLESON

BARNES

185TH

AVE

MURR

AYBLV

D

HW YHILLSDALEBEAVERTON

RDCORNELL

UNION

RD

170TH

AV

122ND

RD

FOSTER

182ND

RDSUNNYSIDE

MACADAM AVE

SANDYBLVD

ST

AIRP ORTW AY

HALSEY ST

KILLINGSW ORTH ST

112TH

P OW ELL BLVD

BURNSIDE ST

148TH

22 3RD

282ND

KING RD

BOONES

FERRYR

DP RESCOTT ST

GLISAN ST

172ND

AV

222ND

DR

190TH

DR

TELFORD RD

242ND

DRMARINE

BLVD

Sauvie Island

International

CLACKAMASCO.MULTNOMAHCO.

Colum b ia

River

Sm ithLake

Byb eeLake

12TH

VAUGHN 102ND

CESAR

E. CH

AVEZ

M. L. K

ING

BARBUR B

LVD

I-5I-5

AVEINT

E RST A

TE




Vulnerab ilityP op ulation 25 and over withoutBac helor’s Degree greater than56.3%City b ound ary

S:\gis\P rojec ts\Gentrific ation_Risk\Map s\Vulnerab ility2012.m xd0 5,000 10,000Feet

2012 Vulnerability Risk Factor C: Education Attainment

Portland

Lake

HappyMilwaukie

Vancouver

MaywoodPark

Wood Troutdale

Beaverton

Tigard

Gresham

Valley

Oswego

Camas

VillageFairview

I-205

I-5

I-205HWY

217

I-405

I-84

US 30

LEWIS & CLARK HWY

500HWY

HWYMcLOUGHLIN BLVD

HWY 224

HWY 99E

99-W

STARK ST

FOURTHFR

UITVAL

LEY

ANDR

ESEN

PLAIN

164TH

1ST ST

COLUMBIA

SANDYBLVD

FARMINGTON

RD

82ND

DIVISION ST

RD

West Union

Aloha

Burlington

Boring

Orchards

WASHINGTONOREGON

Willamette

Multnomah Channel

River

LacamasLake

CooperMtn

BullMtn

MtTalbert

MtScott

PortlandAirport

F o r e s t P a r k

Hayden Island

Government Island

162ND

MILLBLVD

PLAIN

HWY

500

500

HWY

SR-501

18TH ST

138TH

AV

53RD ST

20TH ST

34TH ST

28TH ST

RD

REEDE

RRD

BLVD

CANYONRD

FERRYRD

LOMBARD

RD

HALL

BLVD

RD

OLESON

BA R N ES

185TH

AVE

MURR

AYBLV

D


RDCORNELL

UNION

RD

170TH

AV

122ND

RD

FOSTER

182ND

RDSUNNYSIDE

MACADAM AVE

SANDYBLVD

ST

AIRPORTWAY

HALSEY ST

KILLINGSWORTH ST

112TH

POWELL BLVD

BURNSIDE ST

148TH

22 3RD

282ND

KING RD

BOONES

FERRY R

DPRESCOTT ST

GLISAN ST

172ND

AV

222ND

DR

190TH

DR

TELFORD RD

242ND

DRMARINE

BLVD

Sauvie Island

International


Columbia

River

SmithLake

BybeeLake

12TH

VAUGHN 102N D

CESAR

E. CH

AVEZ

M. L. K

ING

BARBUR B

LVD

I-5I-5

AVEINT

E RST A

TE




VulnerabilityShare of Households at or below80% of HUD-adjusted MedianFamily Income greater than 43.7%City boundary


2012 Vulnerability Risk Factor D: Households with income at or below 80% HUD-adjusted MFI

methodology for vulnerability risk analysis · october 26, 2014 city of portland, oregon // bureau...

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