methods and tools contributing to fta annele eerola vtt technical research centre of finland ian...
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Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA
Annele EerolaVTT Technical Research Centre of Finland
Ian MilesUniversity of Manchester, UK
Third International Seville Conference onFuture-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA):
Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making
16th -17th October 2008
Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA
Contents
Outlines of the presentation
• Multiple faces of FTA - multiple contexts and objectives- method developers, general FTA principles
• Making sense of FTA methods and tools - classification schemes
- examples of methods and tools• Contribution of the various methods and tools
- for the dynamic process of shared knowledge creation- for the various phases of the FTA process
• Selecting methods and designing the process- general guidelines- important design dimensions- assessing quality
• Directions for further research - implications for Theme 1 parallel sessions
Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA
Multiple faces of FTA
Multiple contexts and objectives (1)
• National and regional foresight programmes (Miles et al, 2008)
– creating shared understandings among the societal key actors– facilitating dynamism, innovation and competitiveness – developing prospective intelligence for policy-making and strategies
Recent considerations:– from S&T policy focus towards a more horizontal policy view– from technology focus to broad-scope societal foresight – from expert consultation to participatory approaches involving a wide pool of stakeholders
Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA
Multiple faces of FTA
• Technology Assessment (Johnston, 2008; Rader & Porter, 2008)
– assessing the potential impacts of emerging new technologies– facilitating sound technological developments – providing input for legislative policy options– serving national parliaments and governmental bodies at national, regional and municipal levels– US OTA (1974-1995), parliamentary TA & EP STOA, and Danish Board of Technology as examples
Recent considerations: – balanced consideration of positive and negative impacts– balanced consideration of economic, societal, environmental and ethical perspectives– external expert analysis vs. constructive technology assessment
Multiple contexts and objectives (2)
Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA
Multiple faces of FTA
• Industrial foresight and roadmapping (Cuhls & Johnston, 2008)
– examining development drivers and challenges at industry and company-level
– supporting strategic decision making, innovation and competitiveness – creating shared visions and commitment among the key actors
Recent considerations:– balanced consideration of technology-push vs. demand pull issues– consideration of the entire value chain, incl. end-users– broadening the meaning of 'technology' (services, business models and organisational issues included)
– corporate social responsibility
Multiple contexts and objectives (3)
Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA
Multiple faces of FTA
Developers of methods and tools
• A variety of epistemic communities have influenced the methodological development of FTA, including
– innovation studies – technology foresight– technology assessment– futures research– technology forecasting – business forecasting & roadmapping
(see e.g. Johnston, 2008; Miles, 2008)
• The biennial FTA conferences have provided a new opportunity for mutual learning and exchange of experiences since 2004
Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA
Multiple faces of FTA
Some general FTA principles can be defined(Cagnin & Keenan, 2008)
• Future-orientation• Participation• Evidence-based• Multidisciplinarity• Coordinated mobilisation of people and resources• Action orientation
Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA
• The previous two FTA conferences have documented a wide variety of methods and tools contributing to FTA
• A fresh overview can also be found in The Handbook of Technology Foresight (ed. by Georghiou et al, 2008)
In these contexts, the various methods and tools have been classified by
– type of technique: qualitative vs. quantitative/semi-quantitative– type of approach: exploratory vs. normative– type of knowledge source: expertise-interaction/creativity-evidence (see e.g. Popper, 2008)
Types of methods and tools
Various classification schemes
Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA
• Backcasting• Brainstorming• Expert panels, citizens panels, conferences, workshops• Essays, scenario writing• SWOT analysis• Interviews• Literature reviews• Morphological analysis• Relevance trees, logic charts• Role play, acting• Environmental scanning, weak signals• Science fictioning, wildcards, genius forecasting
Types of methods and tools
Examples of qualitative methods in use
Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA
• Critical & key technologies• Delphi panels & questionnaires• Gaming-simulation • Multicriteria analysis, quantitative scenarios • Polling & voting• Roadmapping, benchmarking• System analysis, structural analysis• Cross-impact analysis • Patent analysis, bibliometrics• Indicators and time series analysis• Trend extrapolation • Modelling
Types of methods and tools
Examples of semi-quantitative & quantitative methods in use
Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA
The Foresight Diamond (Popper, 2008)
Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA
Contribution of methods and tools
• Potential contribution of various methods and tools has been considered
– for different modes of knowledge conversion in the dynamic process of shared knowledge creation
socialization, externalisation, combination, internalization (Nonaka, 1994; Eerola & Väyrynen, 2002; Eerola & Jørgensen, 2008)
– for different phases of FTA processes systemic framework for methods (Saritas, 2006) pre-foresight, recruitment, generation, action, renewal (Miles, 2002/Popper, 2006)
When and how do methods and tools contribute
Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA
Contribution of methods and tools
FTA as a dynamic process of shared knowledge creation
Tacitknowledge
Tacitknowledge
Explicitknowledge
Explicitknowledge
Tacit knowledge Tacit knowledge
Explicit knowledge Explicit knowledge
Field
building
Linking
explicit
knowledge
Dialogue
Learning by doing
Socialization Externalization
Internalization Combination
Core group Project group Steering committee Stakeholder groupsExpert networksConferences & seminars
Participants' and stakeholders' pilot projects, R &D activities and strategy work Regional and national strategies and priority settingInternational agreements/ strategies/priority setting
Expert interviewsDelphi surveys, questionnaires Interactive workshops focusing on SWOT/visions/scenarios/roadmaps/ and/or action recommendations
Reports on desk-top surveysBackground reports for focusedworkshopsReports on the results of SWOT/scenario/roadmap/action Integrative reports on foresight process and resultsConference papersProject website
( Eerola et al, 2002, 2008; SECI by Nonaka, 1994)
Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA
A systemic framework for methods (Saritas 2006)
Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA
Assessing contribution of methods by FTA phase (Popper, 2006)
Qualitative methodsMethods / Activities Pre- Recruit- Generation Action Renewal
foresight ment•1 Backcasting Qualitative 50% 50% *)
•2 Brainstorming Qualitative 10% 10% 60% 10% 10%•3 Citizens panels Qualitative 10% 40% 40% 10%•4 Conferences / workshops 10%Qualitat10%iv 40% 20% 20%•5 Essays / Scenario writing 10%Qualitative 70% 10% 10%•6 Expert panels Qualitative 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%•7 Genius forecasting Qualitative 90% 10%•8 Interviews Qualitative 10% 10% 60% 10% 10%•9 Literature review Qualitative 70% 30%•10 Morphological analysis Qualitative 50% 50%•11 Relevance trees / logic charts 10%Qualitative 40% 40% 10%•12 Role play / Acting Qualitative 50% 50%•13 Scanning Qualitative 50% 10% 30% 10%•14 Scenario workshops Qualitative 70% 30%•15 Science fictioning Qualitative 100%•16 SWOT analysis Qualitative 20% 50% 30%•17 Weak signals / Wildcards 10%Qualitative 50% 30% 10%
*) percentages acc. to the author's assessment
Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA
Assessing contribution of methods by FTA phase (Popper, 2006)
Quantitative & semi-quantitative methods
Methods / Activities Pre- Recruit- Generation Action Renewalforesight ment
•18 Critical / key technologies 10%Semi-quantitative 50% 30% 10% *)
•19 Delphi Semi-quantitative 60% 30% 10%•20 Gaming-simulation Semi-quantitative 50% 50%•21 Multicriteria analysis 10% 40% 40% 10%•22 Patent analysis 100%•23 Polling / voting 20% 30% 30% 20%•24 Quantitative Scenarios / SMIC 90% 10%•25 Roadmapping 10% 10% 70% 10%•26 Stakeholders mapping 10% 20% 20% 40% 10%•27 System / structural analysis 10% 50% 40%•28 Benchmarking 40% 20% 40%•29 Bibliometrics 90% 10%•30 Cross-impact Quantitative50% 50%•31 Indicators and time series 50%Quantitative 30% 20%•32 Modelling Quantitative 60% 40%•33 Trend extrapolation Quantitative30% 50% 20%
*) percentages acc. to the author's assessment only
Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA
Selecting methods and designing the process
• Focus on the triad of Data, Theory & Methods
• Use multiple methods
- blend quantitative and qualitative methods
- integrate distinct methodological contributions & multiple judgments
• Consider the available time/resources when selecting methods
• Formulate an explicit communication plan, taking advantage of electronic media
• Devise an explicit path to impact decision-making
• Assess the quality of FTA
Some general guidelines (Rader & Porter, 2006)
Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA
Selecting methods and designing the process
• Informative vs. instrumental outcomes• Consensual views vs. diverse future perspectives• Exclusive vs. extensive stakeholder involvement• Fixed vs. autonomous process
Important design dimensions (Könnölä et al, 2008)
Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA
Assessing the quality (Rader & Porter, 2008)Issues Dimension Considerations
Information Pedigree Fitness for purpose Correspondence of information & issues:- Adequacy - Relevance
Accuracy Comprehensiveness
Applicability Access & Availability Intelligibility
Reliability Control- Sources – Where from?- Sources – Method of gen. - Verification- Consensus
Confidence- Peer acceptance- Legitimacy
Quality of Tools Fitness for purpose Adequacy/Applicability Relevance Adaptability/ Flexibility
Transformation/ Encoding
Transparency Model documentation Sources of information
Arbitrariness – scientific set-ups
Legitimacy Collegial consensus
Information communicated through networking
Intelligibility Compliance with target audience
Accessibility Transparency
Communication of uncertainties
Recognition Statement
Pedigree statement
Information communic-ated into the foresight exercise
Acknowledgement of Input
Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA
Directions for further research
• Conceptual framing of the FTA process• Varying roles of methods & tools in FTA processes• Challenges of adaptive FTA and modular design• Accumulation of useful knowledge on methods and tools
Theme 1 parallel sessions: Issues to be considered
Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA
ReferencesCagnin, C. and Keenan, M. (2008). Positioning Future-oriented Technology Analysis. In 'Future-Orieted
Technology Analysis - Strategic Intelligence for an Innovative Economy', ed. by C. Cagnin et al. Springer, Berlin Heidelberg.
Cuhls, K. and Johston, R. (2008). Corporate Foresight. In 'Future-Orieted Technology Analysis - Strategic Intelligence for an Innovative Economy', ed. by C. Cagnin et al. Springer, Berlin Heidelberg.
Eerola, A. and Väyrynen, E. (2002). Developing TF and TA Practices on the basis of European Experience. VTT Research Notes 2174, Espoo (in Finnish; abstract in English).
Eerola, A. and Jørgensen, B. H. (2008). Foresight in Nordic Countries. In The Handbook of Foresight – Concepts and Practices, ed. by L. Georghiou et al. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham/Northampton.
Johnston, R. (2008). Historical Review of the Development of Future-Oriented Technology Analysis. In 'Future-Orieted Technology Analysis - Strategic Intelligence for an Innovative Economy', ed. by C. Cagnin et al. Springer, Berlin Heidelberg.
Könnölä, T., Ahlqvist, T., Eerola, A., Kivisaari, S. and Koivisto, R. (2008): Management of Foresight Portfolio - Analysis of Modular Foresight Projects at Contract Research Organisation. Submitted to TASM (forthcoming).
Miles, I. (2008). From the Futures to Foresight. In The Handbook of Foresight – Concepts and Practices, ed. by L. Georghiou et al. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham/Northampton.
Miles, I., Cassingena Harper, J., Georghiou, L., Keenan, M. and Popper, R. (2008). The Many Faces of Foresight. In The Handbook of Foresight – Concepts and Practices, ed. by L. Georghiou et al . Edward Elgar, Cheltenham/Northampton.
Nonaka, I. (1994). A Dynamic Theory of Organizational Knowledge Creation. Organization Science, Vol. 5, No.1, p. 14-37.
Popper, R. (2008). Foresight Methodology. In The Handbook of Foresight – Concepts and Practices, ed. by L. Georghiou et al. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham/Northampton.
Rader M. & Porter, A. (2008). Fitting Future-oriented Analysis Methods to Study Types. In 'Future-Orieted Technology Analysis - Strategic Intelligence for an Innovative Economy', ed. by C. Cagnin et al. Springer, Berlin Heidelberg.
Saritas, O. (2006). Systems Thinking for Foresight, Ph.D. Thesis, PREST, Manchester Business School, University of Manchester.