metro study update
TRANSCRIPT
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The Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of IndiaASSOCHAM corporate ofce:
1, Community Centre, Zamrudpur, Kailash Colony, New Delhi 110048
Tel +91-11-46550555 (Hunting Line), Fax: 011-46536481/82, 46536498
Email: [email protected], Website: www.assocham.org
Study on
Urbanizing India &Mega Metro Network
Vision for the
Emerging Cities of India-2030
November 2011
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Table of Contents
UrbanizingCities ............................................................... 1
Metro&theSuburbanizationprocess.............................. 8
AdvantagesofMetro ......................................................... 9
Urbanization&connectingsuburbsviaMetro ............. 13
CategorizationofCities&MetroRailExpansion .......... 15
ListofCities-TierI,II&III ............................................ 18
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Urbanizing India & Mega Metro Network Vision for the emerging Cities of India-2030
Abstract:
Scenario 2030 projects that the totalurban population of India will be 590 million 40%
of Indias population, where Tier 1 cities population will go up to 155 million (more than
4 million), Tier 2 cities population will up to 104 million (1million- 4 million) whereas the Tier
3 cities will have 331 million population (less than 1 million population) respectively. This
projection was however based on the earlier census data and later sample surveys. However,
the latest data on urbanization from the 2011 census (provisional figures) predict that the
urbanization might be faster than what was projected so far. Between 2001 and 2011 the
urban population grew from 27.8 per cent of the countrys total population to 31.2 per cent,
that is, 3.4 per cent but this is higher than the growth in the previous decennial (1991-2001)
of 2.3 per cent(25.5 to 27.8). The number of towns has grown 53.74 per cent to reach 7,935
already that could well mean by 2030 their number could be nearer 10,000 than was envisaged
earlier. The urban population is already 377 million and might exceed the earlier projection of
590 million by 2030. Surely this urbanization trend is going to have fundamental impact on the
politics, economics and social situation of the country. The most critical issue in urbanization is
efficient transport and our study shows that metro rail answers the transit needs of urban areas
most effectively and has the potential to bring all round benefits to business, to environment
and multiple benefits to people in all walks of life. This study, therefore, urges planned and
perceptive metro development in all large cities and steps to find investment for it; any failure to
do so, or business as usual approach would worsen urban chaos. In the developing situation
with urban India gaining increasingly greater political weight age than ever, such failure would
be unacceptable elect orally for the political class and economically for the entire country. The
study in this context considers the multiple benefits that have accrued to Delhi even within
Phase I and II even as Phase III is under implementation. Metro rail is generating an industry
on its own and creating space for new services, jobs and raising social well-being within one
of the countrys mega urban conglomerate and the nations capital. ASSOCHAM considers this
a role model for all large cities to follow and urges specific steps in this direction.
Type of Urban Cities with Population expected by 2030
UrbanizingCities Populationby2030(InMillion)
Tier I (7 to 13) 155
Tier II(28 to 55) 104
Tier III(70 to 100) 331
Total 590
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(Number of cities with a population above one million plus will increase to 70, the first set of
numbers of cities as per 2001 census; for a list of cities as per 2011 see end of this paper. InTier 1 are cities with population above 4 million, tier II between 1 and 4 million and the rest are
below 1 million.)
(3 CITIES WITH POPULATION ABOVE 20 MILLION AND 10 OTHERS average WITH 5 TO 7
MILLION AVERAGE by 2030).
The big story about India is that it is urbanizing rapidly. For ages the saying was that India
lives in its villages. But now this has begun to change though the bulk of the population
might still remain in villages, the urban content is rising. From some 75 to 80 per cent of the
population being in rural areas, the beginning of the Third Millennium (2001) saw a reduction
of this to 72 per cent and urban population rising to 28 per cent. The census figures of 2011
reveal that the process of urbanization has accelerated: from an increase from 25.5 to 27.8
per cent of total population in decade ending 2001 to 31.2 per cent in decade ending 2011-
addition of 48 per cent more than the rate of growth in the previous decade. The number
of urban settlements designated as towns of any size has grown from 5161 to 7935 in the
decade ending 2011. There is an unmistakable and steady acceleration in the urban-rural
ratio in favour of urbanization and reduction in rural population per centage wise though the
absolute numbers in rural environment are growing due to total population increase.
Table:Urban-ruralratiofromdecennialtodecennial:
1991 25.5: 74:5
2001 27.8 : 72.2
2001 31.2: 68.8
2026 38: 62 (estimated)
2031 40: 60 (estimated)
Population in 2011 1.21 billion
Projected in 2031 1.41 billion people
However, the absolute size of the rural population will continue to grow despite the fact that
since the decennial ending 2011 the number added to urban areas for the first time has
exceeded that added to rural areas in the ratio of 90 to 91 million. The absolute size of the
rural population in 2011 is 833 million, compared to 742.6 million in 2001 and is likely to get
marginally reduced by 2030 to 817 million. The steep per centage rise in urban population
should not make us overlook the fact that the rural population would still be huge enough to
count both in politics and economics but as the latest NSSO figures reveal the rise in average
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urban income would be faster than in rural and the total urban income would continue to be
larger than the rural income by a large factor giving urban population far higher weight age inpublic affairs than is judged by its comparative size.
With 590 million urban people in 2030 Indias urban sprawl would become the second largest
urban system in the world, the urban population alone becoming larger than total population
of several other countries like USA, European Union etc. The growth has already been
phenomenal. What were billed as cities with a population above 4 million in 2001 census
have already doubled their population by 2008. The still larger metro city growth within the top
urban sprawl by 2010 is graphically brought out in the four largest metros :
Table:Populationprojectionandcriticalparametersoffourleadingmetropolitanareas
andofmini-metrosofIndia:
MumbaiKolkata Delhi(NCR) ChennaiMR
Population (2001) 23.62 17.25 18 8.8
P0pulation (2031) 33 23 28(?) 12
In millions; 2031 is a projection
Compact index 0.68 0.78 0.83 0.63
Arterial Rd. density 0.81 0.97 0.72 1.44Public transport
Use (per cent) 78 69 62 43
Vehicle km/capita 11 7.76 8.83 7.62
Fatality on Rd. 622 421 2093 629
Mini Metros (Population now)
Bengaluru 8.0 (2010)
Hyderabad 8.0
Ahmedabad 6.0 (total cities with population above 4 million is 7)
Car per 1000 persons:
Delhi 117; Ahmedabad 50; Bengaluru 50, Chennai 45; Mumbai 25.
(For list of cities with population above one million please see page No. 19)
Some highlights of this urban growth are very significant and do forecast what we should
expect in the next 20 years. The virtual doubling of the population in seven top-most cities
is seen in the fact that they have graduated from above four million population to around 8
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million population already. These cities have become vital engines of growth as they with just
15 per cent of the Indian population contribute 80 per cent of the government tax revenue.The urban population by itself would be the major contributor to the GDP and to government
revenues. The rapid growth in the contribution of the urban population to the GDP is evident
from the following:
Table:Contributionofrural/urbanareastoGDP
Year Rural Urban(percentageofGDP)
1990 54 46
2008 42 582030 31 69
(source: Indias Urbanization: McKinsey study)
With urban population reaching 40 per cent of the total population and contributing nearly 70
per cent of the GDP and 85 per cent of the 892 billion USD revenue of the government (as
against 80 per cent of the 170 billion USD in 2008), there could be significant shift in both the
economics and politics as well as social problems of the country. The proportion of urban
voters would increase and therefore urban issues would begin to dominate political agenda
and urban-rural mix of the elected representatives. With the number of mega cities that iscities with population of more than four million doubling from 7 to 13 (or 14 estimates differ)
some of these mega metros would be larger than the population of several countries. Mumbai
Metropolitan Region with 33 million population and GDP of 265 billion USD (in 2008 prices)
will have a larger GDP than Portugal is now, and in population equal to Canada. It will be larger
than several other countries in either population or GDP or both, like Malaysia, South Africa,
UAE etc. The combined urban population of 590 million would surpass the entire population
of the European Union and of USA and several other countries except China.
This urban growth is also characterized by huge deficiencies in infrastructure and investments
needed for their improvement. No Indian city has reached the minimum of 300 USD percapita per annum considered the global average needed for efficient urban infrastructure.
Mumbais is the largest but at USD 220 is still below the 367 USD needed. The situation in
most other cities is almost pathetic with even Chennai only 51 against 262 USD needed.
Huge investment is required. One estimate of total investment needed in the urban sprawl
has this data:
For cities with 1 to 4 million population Rs. 2,17,200 crores
For cities with 4 million plus population Rs. 1,37,680 crores
(not counting the Metro rail investment required)
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The developing urban scenario reveals that:
Cities are sprawling
Declining public transport
Supply side focus needed
Multiple institutions cut into one another
Huge network inadequacies
Low investments
Poor enforcement of urban regulations
Lack of education of people for urban discipline
The table Urban Sprawl 2010 reveals the close relation between better transport and urban
economic efficiency. Use of public transport is the highest in Mumbai metropolitan region at
78 per cent mainly because of its decades of efficient but crowded round the clock surface
suburban rail system. At the same time Delhi(NCR) that so far was largely using private as
well as public transport (public transport density 62 per cent with only a short metro) has the
highest road fatalities rate of 2093. It also has the highest vehicle km per capita at 8.83. Delhi
has the highest car per 1000 persons at 117 with Mumbai having the lowest. Though this is
not conclusive it could be inferred that larger the rail transport in urban spread and lower the
car per 1000 persons( good public transport, especially rapid rail transport), the fatalities ratewould be significantly lower. In fact the graph of fatalities on road accidents in Delhi show
that significant fall from the level of 2400 deaths began with year 2000 and the fall rose further
when the first phase of Metro began to take effect though since 2005 there was increase once
again due to rising road congestion. Of course, along with Metro, Delhi also had a number
of flyovers covering most of key traffic junctions that also brought down congestion in the last
two years.
Overall Investment perspective
Studies in different urban structural scenario show that rail rapid transit will have the largest
share of city transport investments in cities with population above 4 million.
Table:Idealpositionofrailrapidtransitpercentage:
Size >10 Mill 4to10 M 1to4 M 05 to1M
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Compact cities with complete and well planned network
% of rapid rail network 50 50 0 0 0
This study by the Ministry of Urban Development also shows that urban transport investment
requirements under these three scenarios mentions Rs. 21,298 crores, Rs 15,926 crores
and Rs 12,267 crores as the total investment requirement for transport in the three different
scenarios in 1995 prices(without specifying city size). Dispersed cities require more investment
for longer length of roads and rail tracks and other networks. Rail transit will have largest part
of city investment requirement among different items of requirement in all large cities, apart
from investment in street infrastructure:
Under scene 1 29.3 per cent
Under scene 2 24.4 %
Under scene 3 13.1 %
It is also obvious that the pressure of urbanization with large scale migration of rural population
into the urban areas in search of jobs, better educational and health opportunities, and out of
the demonstration effect of cities, it would be very difficult politically and otherwise to restrict
city expansion. The emergence of dispersed cities is thus inevitable in most cases though
with some forward planning the surge from the rural areas could be directed in specific areas
of settlement. For instance, Delhi has expanded on all sides with NOIDA and Greater NOIDA
in the east and Gurgaon in the West becoming satellite cities integrated into Delhi in manyways. Mumbais expansion has spilled over and an entirely new city Navi Mumbai is coming
up attached to it. The story is the same in all other metros and mini metros. At the centre of
each of these megacities the metro rail lines are, in the coming 20 years, destined to become
the focal point of transit growth and network infrastructure. With the most recent data from the
2001 census revealing accelerated urbanization, there is no escape from the rural migration
to urban cities, more so to the seven mega cities with populations more than or reaching eight
million. Thebigchallengeforurbanplannersistocopewiththesevenmegacitieswith
apopulationabout20percentofthecountrydemanding40percentof investments
projected.
The investment in rapid rail transport for urban areas has many benefits other than merely
improving by a large factor the efficient movement of people within the Metropolitan region.
Studies in green house gas emission in urban areas undertaken by the Urban Development
Ministry at various stages have focused on this benefit among others.
Reduction in pollution
A comparison of green house gas emissions estimated for different types of transport modes
throws up Metro rail as the least polluting among various vehicular traffic.
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Table: Greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles and transport modes in developing
countries:
ModeLoadfactor(average
occupancy)
CO2emissions(gms/
passengerKms)
Car (gasoline) 2.5 130-170
Car (diesel) 2.5 85-170
Car (natural gas) 2.5 100-125
Car (electric) 2 30-100
Scooter (two stroke) 1.5 60-90
Scooter (four stroke) 1.5 40-60
Bus (diesel) 40 20-30
Bus (natural gas) 40 25-35
Rail transit (electric) 75% 20-50
Aviation 75% 350-500
(source: IIT Madras)
Fuel consumption and Investment requirements
An Urban Development Ministry study shows that public transport share at 75 per cent till 2031
will reduce fuel demand by 100 million ton oil equivalent to 42 per cent. Actual investment
requirements have been estimated at over four lakh crores for urban transport development in
87 cities but these estimates could at best be considered rough and as we see the four mega
cities themselves are asking for over Rs 1 lakh in Metro investments each in the coming years.
Going by the Delhi Metro estimates the financial internal rate of return on investments have
been pegged at 17 per cent but these estimates should be raised by 1.4 per centage points
when benefits like reduction of urban air pollution are considered.
Metro rail in Delhi: inspiration for future urban transit
The transformation of public transport in the National Capital sets a sustainable though
capital intensive model for dealing with rapidly growing urbanization of the emerging India in
this and the next two decades. Partly under the pressure of international events and partly
under the rapidly evolving global recognition of India as an emerging power considerable
resources have been concentrated in planned urban transport in Delhi and NCR to take care
of the explosive growth of the national capital region (NCR). For instance, two ring roads have
been made completely traffic crossings free through flyovers and underpasses at strategic
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points. The old pattern of buses has been largely replaced by the modern low floor buses
both air-conditioned and non-AC with a distinct colour scheme for easy identification. The busstands wear a streamlined look and soon will have GPS enabled real time information system.
Widened roads enable more public and private vehicle transport to move faster and with
fewer chances of traffic hold ups. Bus route corridor in arterial roads has been introduced to
speed up bus transport. The goods trucks passing through the city have been diverted and
forced to move only during low traffic timings and the peripheral bypasses under construction
are expected to completely divert them away from the city centre. Apart from local resources
Central grants under JNNURM (Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission) and
private sector and foreign government investments have been the main funding sources for
this transformation.
What is most significant and critical in this transformation as ASSOCHAM and its member
industry and business concerns see it has been the Delhi Metro Project. This metro set
up without much time overruns, have sent a message to all states in the country with large
metropolis in them to go in for similar metro projects there too. TheDelhimetroprojectas
ofnowcomprisesanetworkof186.72kms.This includes an Airport to New Delhi metro
line (Airport express line) that takes just 21 minutes to transport people over this length that
by road should even after the construction of the series of elevated roads and flyovers an
hour. More metro lines are under construction/sanction that would within the next five years
enable all points in the NCR reached by metro rail very fast and free of traffic hold ups. That
this has changed the transportation set up and even socio-economic culture is the additional
benefit of the metro apart from the energy saving when lakhs of commuters give up motorized
personal and private transport in favour of traveling by metro.
Metro & the Suburbanization process
AnASSOCHAMsurveyhasfoundthatduringweekdays,overtwolakhofcarowning
officegoerswhousedtoattendtotheirjobscommutingbytheirpersonalcarsarenow
regularlytravelingbythemetrousingtheircarsonlytomovefromresidencestothe
metrostationswheretheycouldparkthecars.Itsavesthemnotonlypetrolexpense
inthecontextofrisingpetrolpricesbutalsorelievesthemofthestrainofdrivingto
officeand backduringthepeakhourtrafficinthe city.Severallakhofficegoersand
businessmen,professionals,salesexecutivesanditinerantsalesmen,otherworkmen
andwomen,whousedtotravelto workbybuses,havealsoshiftedtothemetroora
combinationofbusandmetro.Themetroitselfprovidesbusservicesfromitsselect
stationstoneighboringblockswhichfacilitatescommutingfurther.
The last ten years that saw the set up and growth of the Metro network have also resulted in
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accelerating the spread of sub cities and satellite towns like Gurgaon, NOIDA, Greater NOIDA,
Ghaziabad etc. This is evident from the acceleration of construction activity in these satellitetowns and the coming up of large office complexes that rival the best in the world as well as
residential areas there. This spread relieves congestion in Central Delhi and enables more
breathing space for the population of Delhi that has doubled from less than a crore to over
2.39crores(23,900,000) ( as on Jan 1, 2011) within the last ten years. It has also enabled
Delhi to stage international sports events like the Commonwealth Games without huge traffic
hold ups and resulting tensions.
ASSOCHAM and other surveys also report a new metro culture of clean, orderly metro
transportation with citizens learning the discipline for the first time of keeping the premises
free of spits and wastes. Visitors to Delhi have observed the contrast between the three major
railway terminals on the one hand and the entire range of metro stations on the other in regard
to cleanliness. The Metro authorities have encouraged commuters to keep the premises
clean, employed staff for periodic cleaning every day and applied the stick of penalties in
case of misuse.
Advantages of Metro
The easy access to the three major railway terminals in the city ( with three more coming up
soon) over the metro has also meant comfortable and hassle free ride to these terminals to
and fro from anywhere in the city. Consider for instance the congestion on the Pahargunjside of the New Delhi railway station and the problems to reach the terminals even from Rajiv
Chowk or central New Delhi even though the distance is less than a km. Delhi municipal area
alone in addition to its own population of over one crore, also attracts some 10 lakh visitors
every day, people coming for business, sight seeing, interaction with central government
agencies and for dozens of events daily. Delhi is a huge centre of wholesale as well as retail
businesses, apart from being the seat of central and state government power. The total strength
of motorized vehicles in Delhi between 2000-2010 was over 60 lakhs (2 & 4 wheelers). There
is also a flood of similar vehicles coming into Delhi from neighboring towns every day. There
would have been interminable traffic chaos if the metro lines had not drained the city roads ofsuch ultra heavy loads of traffic.
A second advantage of the metro is gradually getting projected. It becomes easier for low
income groups and rural immigrants flocking to the cities and creating slums to be dispersed
over to the new towns from where the metro could take them been strong resistance to such
shifts and government has had to use force for effecting such dispersal leading to explosive
law and order situation and avoidable human suffering. One of the many reasons for this
resistance is that these slum dwellers who find jobs in various residential colonies, business
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centres and tea shops and as itinerant artisans and vendors cannot afford to spend the time
and money to reach to their work places from the new locations as buses even if they arecheap (which they are not) cannot transport such large numbers that fast either. Metro should
at least partly meet this need.
Delhi Metro: cost-beneft estimates
RITES estimated the cost of the Phase I of Delhi Metro at Rs. 6406 crores at 2004 prices with
a foreign exchange content of Rs. 772 crores. For Phase II it was Rs. 8626 crores . Daily
passenger footfall was estimated to be 12.63 lakhs in 2002 rising to 54.17 lakhs by 2011
( for both phases combined). Revenue was to go up from Rs. 1505 crores in 2005 to Rs.
3376 crores by 2011 and Rs. 12,792 crores by 2030. The net benefit to government by thisMetro was estimated for year 2011-12 as Rs.3176 crores. The net present economic benefit
from the Delhi Metro (first two phases only) was estimated to be over 22 per cent and net
present social benefit (NPSB) at 22.7 per cent as per 2004-05 prices. The financial rate of
return would be 17 per cent. Social time preference might be computed as Rs. 4197 crores
in money terms. Commenting on the rate of return at economic, financial and social level for
the Metro investment, the Planning Commission is quoted as having remarked: These rates
are much higher than the recommended social time preference rate of eight per cent and the
10 per cent rate of return for investment in India as per a recent study commissioned by the
Planning Commission. In their study of Delhi Metro Murthy et al (Delhi School of Economics)has found that the benefits from reduction in urban air pollution in Delhi due to the Metro
has further increased the rate of economic return to 23.9 per cent. This means the benefits
to Delhi public from reduced air pollution due to the Metro increases its economic rate of
return by 1.4 per cent. The study cited also concludes that Delhi Metro provides incremental
income to Delhi public which has a per capita income more than two times the national per
capita income.
The multiple benefits of Metro could now be listed as it has now completed run of nine years.
The study quoted above says that Delhi Metro contributes to the diversion of a very high
proportion of current passenger traffic from road to Metro and serves part of the growingpassenger traffic demand in Delhi. ASSOCHAMs own study finds that this diversion (
already over two lakh car owning commuters leave their vehicles at the Metro parking or ride
bus to Metro station and prefer to use the rail for commuting to their work place) is just a
beginning and is bound to accelerate once all the nodes in the Metro system are in place with
the Phase III of the project. Our study shows that at present Metro lines are time consuming
(comparatively) for many commuters: for instance, from the sub-city of Dwarka to central
Delhi it takes one hour. The critical traffic nodes like Dhaula Kuan are going to be directly
connected to Red Fort through Jan Path in central Delhi. This would encourage many in
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West and South-West Delhi to travel to central district or to the wholesale business centre
of Chandni Chowk via Metro at more affordable rate. With Phase III of the project all parts ofNCR would be interconnected and Metro travel would become the norm with buses and three
wheelers confined to supplementary role. Then the full benefit of diversion of car/bus traffic
to rail line would be felt and the passenger density would go up by several factors.
The benefits would include a reduction in development cost of roads and in investment in
buses for the government and private transport sector. However, this statement has to be
qualified as government would have to invest in better and wider roads and in better type of
buses like the low floor ones already being deployed on Delhis roads and on projects like four
and six laning, flyovers at all critical cross points, cementing of roads ( as we have detailed
in our study on Diesel pricing) and in laying cycle paths to encourage shift to a non-polluting
and health improving life style. WefindthatitisnotRailversusRoadinurbanplanning
butbothrailandroadtraffictosupplementeachotherwiththemaximisngofreturn
fromboththroughasynergyintheirplanning. For passenger car owners Metro could
lead to much maintenance cost saving as the daily commuting would shift to the Metro; the
availability of a round the clock Metro network alone would significantly reduce car demand
and thereby less pollution. We should also list among the benefits less pollution due to fewer
traffic jams and faster turn round of road taffic.
Also counted among the benefits are: saving in travel time and health benefits due to the
public traveling in airconditioned comfort. ASSOCHAM survey has observed an encouraging
development on Metrol rail in Delhi as against road travel. The latter has a class segmentation
with better off office goers and professionals traveling in cars and upper middle class people
using airconditioned buses. In the Metro travel, all classes of Delhi citizens enjoy the same
airconditioned luxury. Considering that travel in airconditioned buses cost more per km than
non-AC travel, the Metro provides a level traveling field for all without any cost discrimination.
The health aspects of such travel when you move in crowded areas, is another aspect. The
arrival of the Metro pushes up land and property prices and rental returns. More people are
attracted to buy up or rent property far from the working place because of ease of travel withthe Metro arrival. The study quoted earlier notes that The metro has the effect of increasing
the income of the regional economy of Delhi vis a vis the rest of the Indian economy. Our
survey also found that there could be a substantial reduction in cars coming to Delhi daily from
outlying towns as the Metro reaches those towns. In fact, high speed rail travel plans have
already been laid for reaching out to growing cities around like Meerut, Sonepat, industrial
town of Faridabad and tourist centre of Alwar connecting them to Delhi. This again would
enhance Delhis value as a business centre. In ordinary circumstances these towns would
not have come into the NCR area as there could be considerable time gap in reaching out
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to them as well as cost gap. The reduction in vehicles due to Metro Phase I and II has also
been considerable:
Year CarsandJeeps TwoWheelers Buses Total
2005-06 50586 284433 3398 338417
2010-11 10000 65000 4767 79767
2015-16 30000 150000 12388 192388
ItisobviousthatthewithdrawalofmotorizedvehiclesduetoMetrowillbemanifold
asthe rail travel catcheson and network expands infuture. It isalsoworth noting
thatasurgeofthosetravelingearlierbyscootersgoingforMetroissignalingMetrosattractiontotheurbanmiddleclass.
RITES estimated in 2005 that the total reduction in CNG due to traffic of buses diverted to
the Metro (Phase I and II) during the year 2011-12 would be 39.65 million kg. Similarly fuel
saved due to the diverted traffic of cars and two-wheelers would be 138.35 and 25.70 million
litres respectively. At 2004 prices that are just half of what they are today, the fuel savings
work out to 1573 crores as per 2004 prices and Rs . 3146 crores. To this should be added
the fuel savings due to the residual vehicles finding it easy to move around. ASSOCHAMs
own estimate therefore is that the fuel savings now should work out to about Rs.20,000
crores annually in 2011-12 and rise progressively to over Rs. 25,000 crores by 2020at the current prices. We take into account in this estimate the fact that the Metro would
be moving into phase III completion by 2015 and that would further reduce the number
of vehicles on the road, encourage more people getting to Delhi from outlying cities like
Meerut to come by Metro rather than motorized vehicles and the population increase and
car registration to arrive at this estimate. Again, the Metro benefit total should be higher as
we estimate monetary value of pollution reduction. In 2011-12 due to Metro there is also
reduction in air pollution load due to decongestion. Various estimates are available on this
score, the acceptable figure of Rs. 1376 crores however is in 2004-05 prices; in current
prices that figure could b e over Rs. 2500 crores. Murthy et al and RITES have estimatedthe time saving in different price levels- value of time per person saved at Rs. 5.96 per hour
in one estimate and Rs. 7.91 per hr in another for buses and other vehicles. RITES estimate
assuming the daily passenger load by bus at 3.3 million and by Metro at 3.2 million and
average lead 0.21 hr and 0.31 hr respectively and value of it per passenger at Rs. 5.96 Metro
value for time saved would be Rs. 5.91 million and for buses Rs. 4.13 million, clearly giving
a lead for Metro rail travel. RITES estimate has put the money saved due to lesser number of
road accidents at around Rs.50 crores. Operating costs saved for reduced use of vehicles is
estimated to be Rs. 1504 crores in 2011-12. Apart from these general benefits to people and
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the economy of the city, the benefit to government in various forms like fare box revenues,
property development revenues, advertisements and tax on goods and services bought forthe Metro use, all add up to another Rs. 3176 crores in 2004 prices. Putting these and all
other benefits together and reducing the loss to transporters of buses and other vehicles, the
estimate of net present economic benefit at the lowest level comes up to Rs. 2100 crores
in 2011-12 at 2004 prices. Some other estimates give a larger figure about 70 per cent
more. It is interesting to note that Murthy et al have estimated net benefit to the public at
Rs. 1426 crores at 2004 prices in 2011-12. Over the life cycle of the Metro investment NPEB
using an 8 per cent discount is estimated at Rs. 43,238 crores; with discount rate at 10 per
cent NPEB could be lower at Rs. 23,205 crores. Rate of Return on investment works out
taking all benefits into account between 23.85 and 23.88 per cent which is encouraging andmake this investment worthwhile. In addition, the Net Present Social Benefit of Metro for the
income distributional effects are computed between Rs. 41997 and Rs. 21851 crores using
two different approaches. This gives rate of return at between 22.70 and 22-60 percent.
Adding air pollution reduction the economic rate of return is 23.9 per cent for Metro project
as a whole.
Urbanization & connecting suburbs via Metro
By transforming the economics and sociology of urban spread the metro is seen to be showing
a new direction in urban development in the country. For Mumbai that had for long had thebenefit of surface run suburban rail system the call for a heavy investment in an underground
metro in addition to the suburban rail system has come partly in the wake of the success
of the metro in Delhi. Mumbaiisconstructinganetworkof146kminMumbaicityand
suburbsandadditional300kminMumbairegion. The first Rs. 2356 Cr. metro rail corridor
running fromVerasova-Andheri-Ghatkopar is expected to be commissioned next year. One
more line Charkop-Bandra-Mankhurd metro corridor has completed financial closure and
construction is to begin soon. It is interesting to note that despite the existing suburban rail
system and additional Rs. 5,000 crore multimodal urban transport project, quadrupling of rail
lines from Virar to Borivili and additional 100-new suburban trains, the Mumbai MRDA hasdecided to invest as much as Rs. 50,000 crores plus for seven more metro corridors to reduce
the congestion on the suburban rail lines and to accelerate mass transport connectivity in
all two East-West, North-South directions in Indias number one metropolitan area and the
nations commercial and financial capital. We could recall what Chennai is planning where
Metro rail work began in 2008 with a Phase I budget of Rs. 11,000 crores.
Kolkata metro was the first to come up in the country and is now being expanded. Metros are
coming up in Bengaluru and Hyderabad and Kochi though is not in the category of 4 million
population is demanding one. There is no more evidence needed to underline that Metro
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has emerged as the Number One means of mass transportation in the emerging urban
landscape of the country.
In developed countries the Metro is taken as normal and has already transformed the urban
landscape for instance, in New York it has promoted suburban growth and dispersal with
the majority of the metropolitan population preferring the more comfortable living conditions
in suburban culture to the congestion of the city centre flats. The growth of the suburban
cities and townships in the NCR seem to follow the same pattern. One striking symbol of
this suburbanization is the citing of many new malls and even luxury hotels in the satellite
townships of Gurgaon and NOIDA in preference to central New Delhi. Most commercial high
rise buildings have also come up in these satellite towns where newly built both commercial
and residential properties are creating high valuations. This enables private enterprise to be
innovative in every respect in design and development of these commercial and residential
spaces and in promoting retail businesses and entertainment places compared to the similar
functional areas of central Delhi. This has virtually given rise to a new industry that could be
termed as satellite town infrastructure that complements and enhances central city economy.
There is also the reality to be considered that such large concentration of population in
terms of multiples of million cannot be transported by buses without jamming all the main
roads. Metro is thus a necessity for the future of urbanization of India as the country moves
rapidly into the 21st centurys new economic structure with its industrial and service economy
overshadowing the farming economy as the main driver of the gross domestic product as we
shall see in the next few paras.
In the perspective of the 21st century we have to accept urbanization as an inevitable
consequence of the emergence of an industry and service driven economy. The tradition
of 70 per cent of the people depending upon agriculture that contributes only 25 per cent
of the GDP can only perpetuate large swaths of the population remaining at low level of
incomes and well-being. Even now with only less than one-third of our population in urban
areas, it generates over two-thirds of the countrys GDP and account for 90 per cent
of government revenues.For many reasons including the fact that rural India cannot find
adequate income generating jobs to the rising rural population of the country, migration of
population to urban areas has been going on in the six decades since independence. This
and industrialization in the hinterland areas has created new towns and swelled the existing
cities to a unacceptable level of growth. As a result slums now account for one-fourth of all
urban housing. In certain top metros like Mumbai almost half the population is estimated
to live in slums or unauthorized colonies without any basic amenities mainly because these
slums /unauthorized colonies are near their work spots or where unorganized jobs are
available. The level of urbanization increased from 17.6 per cent in 1951 to 23.7 in 1981 and
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Urbanizing India & Mega Metro Network Vision for the emerging Cities of India-2030
then to 27.8 per cent by 2001, as per the decennial census. Though this may appear not
too huge, in terms of absolute numbers, by 2001 the urban population was 285 million whichwas larger than the urban population of all countries except Brazil, China, Indonesia, Russia
and the United States. The data from the 2011 census would reveal how far this has swelled
further. For comparison it is worth noting that the urban population of India in 1901 was a
mere 20 million. The number of urban settlements in the same period rose from 1830 to
4378 per sq km. The addition between 1951 and 2001 was 70 million to the urban population.
Economists interpret such urbanization as an index of the transformation from traditional rural
economies to modern industrial ones. The transformation in the Indian economy has been
straight into the services which now constitute over 50 per cent of the GDP content.
Summing Up
Demographic projections show that by 2030 the total urban population would be 590 million,
out of which 40% would be urbanized population. This should increase by 2030 to 67 per cent
reducing rural population to 31 per cent.
Tamil Nadu (67%), Gujarat (66%), Maharashtra (58%), Karnataka (57%) and Punjab
(52%)wouldhavepopulationfarinexcessof50percentinurbanareas. In Uttar Pradesh
urbanization may be below 50 per cent but as much as 68 per cent of the population is likely
to be in urban areas, denoting high level of urban chaos if mass transport is not planned early.
The fast pace of urbanization projected in the last decade has now been confirmed by thelatest census figures of 2011.
This fast pace of urbanization also mean that almost 85 % of the tax revenue of government
would be generated by these cities by 2030, already 80 per cent of the tax revenue is from urban
areas the total tax revenue in 2008 was $170 billion which by 2030 would rise to $ 892 of which
85 per cent, which is urban India by 2030 would be adding $615 billion to the Governments
kitty by that year. This could be a huge change agent in the Governments agenda and could
also create huge socio-political problems for government if mass transportation and other
urban problems are not attended to through proper planning with immediate effect.
Categorization of Cities & Metro Rail Expansion
The number of cities with a population of more than fourmillioniscalledMega-citieswould
goupfromamere3 now to over 13and Six cities crossing the mark of 10 million
populationand from48to68MillionPlusCities by 2030 respectively. The dynamics of
transport in these cities would be such that if the townships do not have the space to spread
the transport to office and back would choke the city roads. These dynamics say that if
the density of population is only 10 per hectare any point in area of 100 hectares could be
reached by 1000 people within 12 minutes of walking time without any motorized transport
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but if the density in 300, as many as thirty lakh peoplecan reach the same spot within
the same walking time which would naturally choke the area. So if this choking is to beavoided the spread of the urbanized area is essential. Imaginetheurbanchaosthatwould
confrontagovernmentfailingtoplanforthissortofmegachangewhenin13citieseach
withapopulationofabovefourmillion&sixcitieseachwithapopulationofabove10
million(MegaCities)therewouldbehugedemandformasstransport. Nothing can do
this sufficiently as a metro rail system would do. Also the planning for the metro system for
6 mega cities (2030)(Mumbai,Delhi,Kolkata,Chennai,BengaluruandHyderabad) from
now onwards could mean establishing a large metro equipment industry for the coming days.
This would attract huge investments, create lakhs of jobs and render efficient services. Along
with planning standardization of Metro equipment is also needed so that mass production ofthis equipment including coaches, signaling, station design etc could be set in motion now to
gain economics of mass production.
Of course, there are new developments in the urban rail transport like monorail, orbital systems
etc which take off from the metro railway system.
In fact, these subsidiary systems are being considered for speeding up transport within the
satellite cities like Ghaziabad to Meerut on the east side and Gurgaon to Sona in the south
side of Delhi. The comparative efficiency of these various rail systems would have to be
studied. As these systems come up a pattern would emerge that would tend to optimize
energy efficiency and fuel use in the entire metropolitan area as such.
It is obvious that multi-modal transport has to be provided in the metropolitan or mega city
area and optimal spread of the population should be achieved within the availability of land
and other resources. This requires proper and early planning as we are on the threshold of
a huge urban surge.
It is better that such planning is attempted now rather than later to avoid social tensions,
and pressures on the well being of the urbanizing India in the next 30 years. It is also
plain that too high a population density and to that extent less moving space and living
space for this population would tell on the health of the urban population and increase
public health and medical costs in future. Studies in urban transport policy options show
that there could not be an optimal population for a city, what is critical in such planning
is the direction as future growth can be organized to make a city compact or dispersed
way. As cities act as magnet for immigration from rural areas limiting population would be
difficult but it would be possible to plan for the dispersal of his population using multi-modal
transport while maintaining high level of efficiency of movement and feeling of comfort for
each household.
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It is this development that has caught the imagination of several other metros and mini-
metros to demand and plan metro developments. The list of growing metro projects inmajor cities of the country reveals this critical importance of metro rail projects. A Central
Government report has this list:A new metro project was taken up in Hyderabad for 71.16
km., at an estimated cost of Rs. 12,332 crores, besides the ongoing metro projects
of Bangalore, Chennai, Kolkata (East-West Metro corridor) and Mumbai. In addition
to the above, In principle approvalhasbeengivenforstage-IoftheJaipurmetrorail
project, to be implemented by the State government from its own resources. We have
seen already what is happening in the prime financial centre of the country in Mumbaiwith
MetroprojectcostingoverRs.50,000crores planned in addition to the extension of its
existing huge network of suburban trains. Mumbai has already grown beyond even its lastmile of suburban growth and has spilled over into Navi Mumbai and even upto Pune in
the south and Vadodara-Surat in the north. In smaller metros like Kochi there is a growing
demand for metro project that is now before the Central government authorities for sanction.
Thisrevealscountrywiderecognitionthatmetroprojectiscentraltourbangrowthin
theyearstocome. The criticality of the metro was also accepted by the Government in
amending the Metro Railway Act in 2009 giving legal cover to metro projects. Theviability
fundingfromGovernmentwouldmakemostofthemetroprojectsundertakenonPPP
basis,achanceofsucceedinginthenextfewyearsprovidingmostofthemega-cities
metrotransportationformassurbantransport.
In the context of urban growth in India over the next 30 years, these developments assume
critical importance as they could redesign and refashion the entire urban landscape. It is in
effect the only way the explosive urban growth expected in the next two decades could be
contained and channeled.
ASSOCHAM believes that the Government should move quickly to establish the Metro as
the best mass transport means in urbanizing India as a policy. This would mean planning
for metros in all major cities having a population of above four million, the projection of metro
construction and facilitation of mass transport to create demand for more industries to servethis demand and many new services to be provided in metro premises and through its network
of satellite bus services.
The check points for a Mega Metro Mass Transport Vision would, according to ASSOCHAM,
should consist of:
1. Creation of a mega metro network vision for 20newmillionpluscities (from 48 to 68),
13citieswith4millionpluspopulation and 6mega-citieswithmorethan10million
populationsofwhichMumbaiandDelhiwouldbeabove30million by 2030.
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List of Cities:
Tier I= More than 4 Million (currently 7 cities, by 2030 13 cities)
Tier II= Between 1 Million-4 Million (currently 48 cities, by 2030 will be 68)
Tier III= Population less than 1 Million
Thirteencitieseach will have a population of above 4million there would be demanding
mass transport. These 13 cities crossing 4millionmarkby2030are: Sixcitieswillhave10
millionpluspopulationby2030,andtwooutofthemat30millionplus.
Tier I:
List of cities with more than 4 million population by 2030:
S.No. Cities Populationprojectionfor2030
1. Mumbai 33.0
2. DelhiNCR 25.9
3. Kolkata 22.9
4. Chennai 11.0
5. Bangalore 10.1
6. Pune 10.0
7. Hyderabad 9.8
8. Ahmedabad 8.4
9. Surat 7.4
10. Jaipur 5.4
11. Nagpur 5.2
12. Kanpur 4.2
13. Vadodara 4.2
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Indiawillhave68citieswithpopulationofmorethan1millionby2030,upfrom48as
ofJanuary1,2011. These 48 urban agglomerations in India with a population of 1 million ormore are:
List of Million plus cities as on Jan 1, 2011
S.No. City Population(January1,2011)
Tier I Cities
1 Delhi 23,900,000
2 Mumbai 23,300,000
3 Kolkata 16,600,0004 Chennai 8,900,000
5 Bangalore 8,000,000
6 Hyderabad 7,700,000
7 Ahmedabad 6,100,000
8 Pune 4,950,000
9 Surat 4,375,000
Tier II Cities
10 Kanpur 3,750,000
11 Jaipur 3,375,000
12 Lucknow 3,025,000
13 Nagpur 2,875,000
14 Patna 2,600,000
15 Jabalpur 2,231,670
16 Bhilai 2,225,000
17 Indore 2,025,000
18 Vadodara 2,024,000
19 Bhopal 1,960,000
20 Coimbatore 1,960,000
21 Ludhiana 1,870,000
22 Agra 1,850,000
23 Kochi 1,740,000
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24 Nashik 1,740,000
25 Asansol 1,720,000
26 Meerut 1,720,000
27 Visakhapatnam 1,720,000
28 Bhubaneswar 1,710,000
29 Chandigarh 1,670,000
30 Varanasi 1,550,000
31 Kolhapur 1,540,000
32 Rajkot 1,460,000
33 Jamshedpur 1,450,000
34 Madurai 1,400,000
35 Amritsar 1,390,000
36 Dhanbad 1,380,000
37 Allahabad 1,310,000
38 Aurangabad 1,290,000
39 Vijayawada 1,280,000
40 Srinagar 1,260,000
41 Solapur 1,200,000
42 Ranchi 1,190,000
43 Thiruvananthapuram 1,130,000
44 Guwahati 1,120,000
45 Jodhpur 1,110,000
46 Tiruchirappalli 1,070,000
47 Gwalior 1,060,000
48 Kozhikode 1,020,000
2. The vision should include creation of a manufacturing base for metro products in the
country. This would require standardization for equipment right at start.
3. Creation of a funding mechanism and a special fund from out of the Government share
of profits, taxes from the projects related to the metro. Government to provide Virtual
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Security Guard (VSG) for firms undertaking advanced planning and execution of metro
projects through this fund.
4. The optimal population of the emerging metropolitan areas must be fixed in the vision
and steps should be taken to ensure that satellite towns come up with all facilities to
encourage dispersal of urban communities.
5. Metropolitan Transport Authorities be created for each emerging metro township.
6. In 2008, urban GDP accounted for 58% of the overall GDP. By the year 2030 it is projected
that the cities will account for 69% of GDP whereas the rural contribution would be around
31%. There would be critical political impact of this urbanization which should be studied
in advance by all political parties and academic institutions.
7. The urbanization process will attract MNCs and services sector such as hotel & hospitality,
infrastructure development, sanitation etc.
8. It will help India to be seated at the table of the developed nations.
We are sure with these steps and proper implementation the metro projects, urban India
will take off much before the target date of 2030 with urban transport growing into a major
driver of our economy while moderating the impact of mass demand for speedy metropolitan
transport because of advanced planning.
HHH
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NOTES
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