metronamica spatial decision support system
DESCRIPTION
Metronamica Spatial Decision Support System Modelling the impacts of policy interventions on land use. Land use change over time…. Land use dynamics are complex and have self organising behaviour Planners and policy-makers have a decisive influence on future land use. 2. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
MetronamicaSpatial Decision Support System
Modelling the impacts of policy interventions on land use
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Land use change over time…• Land use dynamics are complex and have self
organising behaviour • Planners and policy-makers have a decisive influence
on future land use
RIKS 3
– Improve the understanding of the reciprocal relationship between various processes
– Assess the spatial implications of (a combination of) policy measures under different socio-economic scenarios
Spatial Decision Support System aims to:
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The approach to modelling• Simulation models: start with a state (e.g. land use map of
the initial year) and use a set of drivers (behavioural, institutional and physical) to calculate future developments
• Exploratory approach: show what could happen, rather than what should happen
• No ideal future, nor is there an assumption that the world reaches equilibrium in any point in time
• Complexity theory
– An organized but unpredictable behaviour of the land use system – self organisation
– Large set of simple equations or rules that together create a complex behaviour
– Non-linear dynamics and emergent properties
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Understand the Process• Understand the process by which cities and regions
change
• Capture the process in a dynamic model
• Use the model to experiment with the future:
– Explore various scenarios– Test policy and planning options before they are
implemented
Developing and using the model
Unknown futureKnown history
NOW FUTUREPAST
Land Use
Facts on: Suitability
ZoningAccessibilityPopulation
Jobs
Land Use
Facts on:Suitability
ZoningAccessibilityPopulation
Jobs
Scenarios /Forecasts on
Spatial Claims
Observed /HistoricalChanges
Calibration Exploration
Land Use
Scenarios on:
SuitabilityZoning
AccessibilityPopulation
Jobs
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Drivers of land use change
• Land use demands (model at regional level)
• Current land use and spatial interaction
• Zoning regulations
• Suitability of the location
• Accessibility
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Land use demand in Metronamica
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Drivers of land use change
• Land use demands (model at regional level)
• Current land use and spatial interaction
• Zoning regulations
• Suitability of the location
• Accessibility
Neighborhood influenceNeighbourhood influence rules express
Push and pull forces (repulsion and attraction between pairs of land uses)
Agglomeration effects Inertia
Neighbourhood influence rules are robust, and tend to be quite similar from one application to another.
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RIKS’ Cellular Automata Land use Model
Distance rules representing locational preferences of land uses in competition for space
25-1000 m resolution;
Commerce
Industry
Housing
Forest
WaterCommerce
Industry Housing
(White & Engelen, 1993;
1997)
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Drivers of land use change
• Land use demands (model at regional level)
• Current land use and spatial interaction
• Zoning regulations
• Suitability of the location
• Accessibility
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Zoning regulation
• Facilitating map: plans that explicitly allow certain land use developments. (e.g. urban expansion plans)
• Restrictive map: policy documents that explicitly prohibit certain developments. (e.g. protected natural areas, which is forbidden to start new industry developments).
• De facto land use: the land use that is already there. (e.g. residential land use on the map this location would be restricted by the regulations of the protected natural areas).
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Zoning regulation: interpretationSet hierarchy and interpretation
Plans are interpreted per category
Start date End date
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combined results of all plans
Risk for excess water
National parks
Natura 2000
T=2011
Interpretation
Combination(Hierarchy)
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Drivers of land use change
• Land use demands (model at regional level)
• Current land use and spatial interaction
• Zoning regulations
• Suitability of the location
• Accessibility
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• Suitability qualifies the effect that physical elements of the land have on the possible future occurrence of land uses on a certain location.
• Suitability represents the physical aspects of a location (information on soil, elevation, slope etc).
Suitability
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Steps of setting factor map
Interpretation:
ElevationSuitability of mixed and coniferous forestsaccording to elevation
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Select combination method
Aspect
Elevation
Slope
Interpretation Combination
f(x)
Suitability according to all factors combined
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Drivers of land use change
• Land use demands (model at regional level)
• Current land use and spatial interaction
• Zoning regulations
• Suitability of the location
• Accessibility
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• Accessibility is the influence of infrastructure.
• Accessibility is different for each land use.
Accessibility
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Accessibility
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Time LoopTime Loop
Transition RuleTransition RuleChange cells to land-use for which they have the highest transition potential until the land use demands are met.
Land useLand use
TotalTotalPotentialsPotentials
==
&&
SuitabilitySuitability
AccessibilityAccessibility
&&
ZoningZoning
&&
& Interaction & Interaction weightsweights
Planning of policy actions
Value of a policy policy
relevant relevant indicatorindicator
Aid for:• Problem identification• Design of solutions• Exploration of solutions
Policyintervention
Policyintervention
Policyintervention
Policyintervention
Policyintervention
Aid for:• Analysis• Evaluation• Selection• Authorization
Alternative 1Alternative 2
Alternative 3
GOALAlternative 4Alternative 5
Alternative 6
PASPASTT
PRESENPRESENTT
FUTUREFUTURE
Aid for:• Recognition• Diagnosis
Create scenarios
Population and employment trends
Land use demands
New infrastructure network
Regulations and developments zoning
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Scenario analysis with Metronamica
1. Creating integrated master scenarios
2. Running the model
– Options for saving results
– Integrated, dynamic, spatial
3. Visualising results
– Indicators
4. Analysing results
– Comparing, analysing, evaluating
Analysing results
Land use in 2031 according to different scenarios(1) baseline scenario(2) transnational strategic scenario
Forest (3) according to the two different scenario
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Use of Policy Support Systems• It can help:
– Explore dynamic spatial developments using ‘what-if-analysis’
– Visualise consequences of trends, shocks and policy interventions
• Stimulates and facilitates– Learning– Awareness building– Discussion
