metsä board, results presentation january-september 2017
TRANSCRIPT
Metsä BoardInterim Report 1−9/2017Presentation material
January–September 2017: Increasing sales and improved operating result
SalesEUR million
436 423 440 422 445 474 4790
100
200
300
400
500
Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17
+8%
35 36 34 33 45 44 50
8,0 % 8,5 %7,7 % 7,8 %
10,2 %9,2 %
10,5 %
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
0
10
20
30
40
50
Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17
+33%
Interim Report 1-9/20172
Comparable operating resultEUR million and %
1–9 2016:EUR 1,299 million
EU
R m
illio
n
EU
R m
illio
n
1–9 2017:EUR 1,397 million
1–9 2016:EUR 105 million
1–9 2017:EUR 139 million
Strong growth in paperboard deliveries
204 213 224 224 227 250 266 245 265304 299
130 141 137 131 142148 148
143163
173 170
0
100
200
300
400
500
Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017
White fresh fibre linerboard
Folding boxboard
1,00
0 to
nnes
3 Interim Report 1-9/2017
FY 2015:1,404 tonnes
FY 2016:1,569 tonnes
Q1-Q3 2017:1,375 tonnes
(Q1-Q3/16: 1,181)
+17%
Q1-Q3 2016
Q1-Q3 2017
Interim Report 1-9/20174
Q3 2017 in summary(vs. Q2 2017)
• Higher production volumes • Increased average price of folding boxboard• Paperboard deliveries roughly at the level of Q2• Cash flow from operations strong due to improved
result and good working capital performance
• Stable or rising market price levels in local currencies
– Metsä Board announced price increases in Europe in folding boxboard and white linerboard
• Metsä Fibre’s new bioproduct mill started as planned in August
• FX rate changes including hedges had a small positive impact in Q3/17 vs. Q2/17 • The positive impact from hedging will start to dilute towards the end of the year• Annual sensitivities have changed due to the changes in FX rates
FX exposure and sensitivities
58 %34 %
6 %2 %USD
SEK
GBP
Othercurrencies
Annual transaction exposureEUR 1.1 billion
FX sensitivities excluding hedges
10% strengthening of foreign currency vs. EUR will have an impact on Metsä Board’s EBIT of
Currency Next 12 months
USD, $ EUR +64 million
SEK EUR -38 million
GBP, £ EUR +7 million
5 Interim Report 1-9/2017 Hedging policy: 100% of balance sheet position and 50% of annual net FX flows
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Q1/13 Q2/13 Q3/13 Q4/13 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17
Comparable ROCE, %
Interim Report 1-9/20176
Return on capital employed, %
Target >12%
Q3/17:11.5%
• Capacity utilisation rate in July–September 2017 was 76%
– FY 2017 estimate is slightly below 75%
– Target is to have capacity in full use by the end of 2018
• Annual maintenance shutdown in October
• Improved average price of folding boxboard
• Production costs per tonne are still higher than at the Finnish mills
• Metsä Board’s FBB/FSB deliveries to Americas in 1–9/2017 up by 65% compared to 1–9/2016
• Potential to improve profitability in Husum by EUR 100 million is intact
Interim Report 1-9/20177
Update on Husum’s folding boxboard
Cash flows clearly positiveStrong cash flow in Q3 due to improved result and good working capital performance
3356
9366
-22 -22
67 55 2637
689 8 45 8
-76 -72
49 17 7 2559
250214
256 247
193
11589 78
126
185 186188
119 118
70
-15
-95
-91
-82
198
108
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17
Cash flow from operations, quarterly Free cash flow, quarterlyCash flow from operations, rolling 12 months Free cash flow, rolling 12 months
EUR
milli
on
8 Interim Report 1-9/2017
Free cash flow = Net cash flow from operating activities + Investments in intangible and tangible assets + Acquisition of associate company shares + Acquisition of other shares
Stable balance sheet
333 464 488 464 458 495 437
1,2
2,0 2,1 2,0 1,9 2,0
1,7
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
0
200
400
600
2015 2016 9/16 12/16 3/17 6/17 9/17
Interest-bearing net debt, EUR millionInterest-bearing net debt / EBITDA (rolling 12-month)
Interest-bearing net debt / comparable EBITDA
333 464 488 464 458 495 437
32%
44%49%
44% 44% 45%
39%
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0
200
400
600
2015 2016 9/16 12/16 3/17 6/17 9/17
Interest-bearing net debt, EUR millionNet gearing, %
Net gearing, %
9 Interim Report 1-9/2017
Financial target: <2.5x
0
50
100
150
200
250
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021-26 2027
Bonds Loans from financial institutions Pension loans Other loansInterim Report 1-9/201710
Debt maturity lengthened due to new 10-year bond
Interest-bearing debt maturity profile 30.9.2017
EUR
milli
on
• Total interest-bearing debt on 30 September was EUR 651 million
• In September, Metsä Board issued new 10-year EUR 250 million bond with 2.75% annual coupon. At the same time, the company made a tender offer for the old EUR 225 million bond due in 2019 (EUR 158m tendered)
• In August, Moody‘s upgraded Metsä Board‘s credit rating from Ba2 to Ba1
Rating agency Rating andoutlook
Last update
Standard & Poor‘s
BB+ (positive) 02/2017
Moody‘s Ba1 (stable) 08/2017Upgrade from Ba2
Metsä Board‘s credit ratings
Metsä Board’s growth clearly exceeds averagemarket growth
11
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
1 800
2 000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 LTM* 2018 target
Fresh fibre linerboard Folding boxboard
Metsä Board’s annual paperboard deliveries 1,000 tonnes
Interim Report 1-9/2017 *last twelve months
Annual global demand growth for folding boxboard
and white kraftliners is
estimated to be 3–4%
Source: RISI, CEPI, Pöyryand trade statistics among
others
• Postitions on the CDP Climate A and Water A Lists
• Leadership status in CDP Forest programme
Interim Report 1-9/201712
Metsä Board was again rated among the world’s best performing companies by CDP
CDP is a non-profitorganization providing a global system to measure, disclose, manage and share vitalenvironmentalinformation.
Metsä Fibre’s new bioproduct mill in Äänekoski has startedStart-up as scheduled, costs in budget and production above the ramp-up curve
Total investmentEUR 1.2 billion
Annual pulp capacity1.3 million tonnes
Metsä Board investedEUR 24.9 million
Metsä Board’s annualpulp balance grows by
200,000 tonnes*
* According to Metsä Board’s 24.9% ownership of Metsä Fibre
Interim Report 1-9/201714
Near-term outlook
• Metsä Board’s Q4 paperboard delivery volumes are expected to decline due to seasonality
• Pulp market is expected to remain in balance. Metsä Fibre’s new bioproduct mill is expected to have positive impact on Metsä Board’s Q4 result
• Annual maintenance shutdown in Husum mill will have negative impact on profitability
• Positive hedging impact from USD will dilute towards the year-end
• Impacts from price increases expected to be visible mainly from Q1 2018 onwards
Mainly due to the maintenance shutdown at the Husum integrated mill, Metsä Board’s comparable operating result in the fourth quarter of 2017 is expected to weaken slightly from the third quarter of 2017.
Interim Report 1-9/201715
Profit guidance
• Solid performance in Q3• Good demand for high-quality
paperboards, with stable or rising price levels
• Near-term focus on improving average price of Husum’s folding boxboard and increasing sales to Americas
• Metsä Board expects to have its current paperboard capacity in full use by the end of 2018
Interim Report 1-9/201716
Summary
Appendix
Interim Report 1-9/201718
Key financials
Q3/17 Q2/17ChangeQ3/17
vs. Q2/171-9/17 1-9/16
Change1-9/17
vs. 1-9/162016
Sales EUR, m 479 474 +1% 1,397 1,299 +8% 1,720
EBITDA* EUR, m 75 68 +10% 211 178 +19% 231
Operating result* EUR, m 50 44 +14% 139 105 +32% 138
% of sales % 10.5 9.2 10.0 8.1 8.0
Result before taxes* EUR, m 34 37 -8% 110 84 +31% 107
Earnings per share EUR 0.11 0.09 +22% 0.30 0.18 +67% 0.25
ROCE* % 11.5 10.3 10.6 8.3 8.1
Capex EUR, m 7 12 -42% 39 119 -67% 162
Cash flow from operations EUR, m 68 37 +84% 130 23 over 100% 77
IB Net debt, at end of period EUR, m 437 495 -12% 437 488 -10% 464*comparable
43.550.4
0102030405060
Q2 2017 Q3 2017
Q3 2017 vs. Q2 2017
Interim Report 1-9/201719
Comparable operating resultQ3/17 vs Q2/17: +16% and 1-9/17 vs. 1-9/16: +33%
104.7
139.1
020406080
100120140
1-9 2016 1-9 2017
1-9 2017 vs. 1-9 2016
+ Inreased average price of FBB, higher productionvolumes in paperboard and pulp, lower maintenancecosts, impact from FX rates including hedges
- Start-up of Metsä Fibre’s new bioproduct mill
+ Positive development in linerboard and market pulpoperations, discontinued paper business, impact fromFX rates including hedges
- Increased latex price
EBIT-%8.1
EBIT-%10.0EBIT-%
9.2
EBIT-%10.5
WTKL = white-top kraftlinerFBB = folding boxboard
• Investments in January–September were EUR 39 million (1–9/16: EUR 119 million)
• Estimated capex in 2017 is EUR 65–70 million
Clearly lower capex in 2017
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E
Maintenance capex Growth capex Depreciation
EUR million
20 Interim Report 1-9/2017
Main growth in capex in 2015−2016: Husum investment programme, extrusion coating line and equity investment in Metsä Fibre’s bioproduct mill
Financial targets and actuals
Comparable ROCE, %
6,4
9,1
11,3
8,1
10,6
2013 2014 2015 2016 1-9/17
2,9
1,8
1,2
2,01,7
2013 2014 2015 2016 1-9/17
Net debt / Comparable EBITDA, %
7%
10%
13% 12%
17%
2013 2014 2015 2016 1-9/17
Annual growth in total paperboard deliveries, %
Target is to exceed relevant market growth*
Dividend policy: Metsä Board aims to distribute at least 50% of its result for the financial period in annual dividends to its shareholders
Target: >12%
Target: <2.5×
Global fresh fibre paperboard demand growth 3-4%/a
Interim Report 1-9/201721
Debt structure and liquidity30 September 2017
315
149
111
2253 Bonds
Loans fromfinancial institutions
Pension loans
Finance leases andother loans
Other short-termloans
210
100
102
Cash and cashequivalentsRevolving creditfacilityUnraised pensionloans
Interest-bearing debt, total EUR 651 million
Available liquidity, total EUR 412 million
Average maturity of long-term loans on 30 September 2017 was 5.4 years. 22 Interim Report 1-9/2017
*) Of which EUR 248 million due in 2027 and EUR 67 million due in 2019
*)
Interim Report 1-9/201723
Increased financial costs due to the financing arrangements in September
56 39 32 31 29
4,6
4,2
3,8
3,33,2
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
5,0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2013 2014 2015 2016 1-9/2017
Net financial costs, EUR millionAverage interest rate at the end of period, %
EUR million %• Net financials in 1-9/2017
were EUR -29 million (1-9/16: EUR -21 million)
• In September, Metsä Board issued new 10-year EUR 250 million bond due 2027
• Q3 financial expenses include EUR 11 million of costs related to the early repurchase of the bond maturing in 2019
Market cap and foreign owners30 September 2017
Ownership distribution30 September 2017
Market cap and ownership distributionMetsä Board shares (METSB, METSA) are listed on Nasdaq Helsinki
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1-9/2017
Market cap, EUR million
Share of foreign owners, %
42 %
22 %
18 %
18 % MetsäliittoCooperative
Domestic institutionalinvestors
Domestic privateinvestors
Foreign owners
EUR million
* Metsäliitto Cooperative has 61% of voting rights
*
24
%
Interim Report 1-9/2017
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Folding boxboard White-top kraftliner
Interim Report 1-9/201725
Market price development in folding boxboard and white-top kraftliner in Europe
EUR/tn
Sources: RISI, Inc. & FOEX Indexes Ltd
350400
450500550600
650700750
800850900950
10001050
'10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17350400
450500550600
650700750
800850900950
10001050
Source: Foex Indexes Ltd
Softwood, USD
Softwood, EUR
Hardwood, EUR
Hardwood, USD
USDEUR
Pulp price development (PIX)
26 Interim Report 1-9/2017