michael li, senior policy advisor office of energy efficiency and renewable energy u.s. department...
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Michael Li, Senior Policy AdvisorOffice of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy
U.S. Department of Energy
Source:
What is Green Button?Common-sense idea that electricity customers should be able to download their own energy usage information in a consumer- and computer-friendly format.
Who is implementing green button?
• NSTAR• PG&E• Reliant• SDG&E• TXU Energy
Utilities and electricity suppliers in 24 states across various regulatory regimes have committed to provide 30 million US homes and businesses Green Button data.
Commitment to Green Button:American Electric PowerAustin EnergyBaltimore Gas & ElectricCenterPoint EnergyChattanooga EPBCommonwealth EdisonGlendale Water and PowerNational GridOncorPECOPepco HoldingsPPL Electric UtilitiesPacific PowerRocky Mountain PowerSouthern California EdisonVirginia Dominion Power
Utilities & Electricity Suppliers with Green Button today:(almost 10 million homes)
NSTARPG&EReliantSDG&ETXU Energy
Green Button Facts
What it is: • Energy usage information in a common XML format (NAESB ESPI
data std)• PG&E example: how much electricity (kWh) did one metered
customer consume every hour for the last yearMarkets: Residential, commercial and industrialType: initially electricity, but the data standard is extensible to gas and water dataTimeliness: Not real time data, but 24 hour-old back office data. Time interval:
• Again the data standard is extensible and could include any interval of data.
• Most will provide 15 minute interval or hourly data.• However, some will provide monthly data, too.
Metering system: • You don’t need to have AMI to participate. AMR works, too.
Transfer of data: • Green Button, Download My Data – goes directly from the utility to
the customer; most will implement this version. • Green Button Connect - automated data transfer from the utility to
a third party with customer authorization is the 2nd part of the data std; may be implemented as early as this year in 1-2 states.
http://openei.org
Helping to spur new innovation and Green Button Apps
http://appsforenergy.challenge.gov/
Green Button Apps!
Apps for Energy Winners
Best Overall App Grand Prize: LeafullyLocation: Seattle, WashingtonLeafully, helps utility customers visualize their Green Button data, as a variety of units, such as the amount of trees needed to offset an individual’s energy usage.
Best Overall App Second Prize: MelonLocation: Washington, DCThe app uses Green Button to evaluate the energy performance of commercial buildings.
Best Overall App Third Prize: VELObillLocation: New York, NY VELObill app helps makes it easier for utility customers to view their energy usage, measure whether it is high or low, and compare it to that of their peers.
Best Student App Grand Prize: wotz Location: Irvine, CA
Best Student App Second Prize: Budget It YourselfLocation: Cleveland, OH
http://energy.gov/articles/first-winners-announced-apps-energy-competition-0
Working Group Leadership
Susan Ackerman, OR PUC
Vaughn Clark, OK SEO
Todd Currier, WA SEO
Jennifer Easler, IA Consumer Advocate
Joshua Epel, CO PUC
Jim Gallagher, NY ISO
Bryan Garcia, CT Clean Energy Fund
Frank Murray, NY SEO
Pat Oshie, WA PUC
Phyllis Reha, MN PUC
Cheryl Roberto, OH PUC
Janet Streff, MN SEO
Keith Welks, PA Treasury
Malcolm Woolf, MD SEO
SEE Action Working Groups
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Evaluation, Measurement, and Verification (EM&V) of
Residential Behavior-Based Energy Efficiency Programs:
Issues and Recommendations June 25, 2012
Michael Li US Department of EnergyAnnika Todd Lawrence Berkeley National Lab
This information was developed as a product of the State and Local Energy Efficiency Action Network (SEE Action), facilitated by the U.S. Department of Energy/U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Content does not imply an endorsement by individuals or organizations that are part of SEE Action working groups, or reflect the views, policies, or otherwise of the federal government.
www.seeaction.energy.gov
• What is a behavior-based energy program?
• Why is evaluation of these programs hard?
• Why is designing a program as a “randomized controlled trial” (RCT) so important?
Outline: Evaluation of Behavior-Based Programs
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www.seeaction.energy.gov
• Programs that affect the way that consumers use energy without using traditional methods, such as prices and rebates
• Instead, use simple psychological levers or information to change behavior
• Example 1: Comparing your energy use with your neighbors • Example 2: Providing real-time information about energy use • Other examples:
• Competitions, rewards: Turning energy use into a game• Education / Outreach: Information about energy behavior • Display of feedback: Simplify / Framing
What is a behavior-based energy program?
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www.seeaction.energy.gov
• Potential Benefits• In theory, potentially cheap to implement and result in
significant energy savings cost effective• As a result, increasingly being adopted nationwide
• Potential Concerns• In reality, these programs are relatively new and evidence
of energy saving effects is unclear • Potential for unsubstantiated claims
What are the potential benefits and concerns?
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www.seeaction.energy.gov
It is very important to measure effect of these programs
• Need to gain information about how well different types of programs work
• Are the estimates energy savings valid for utilities to claim savings?
Why is evaluation crucially important?
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www.seeaction.energy.gov
• Strong problems of “selection bias”: households who join (choice, screening) are fundamentally different
• Observed differences might be due to program; might difference between groups
• Selection bias can skew the results of the evaluation
Why is evaluation of these programs hard?
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Population
Join
Didn’t Join
www.seeaction.energy.gov
• Energy programs “selection bias”: households who opt-in may be more energy conscious
• Observed difference in energy use might be due to the program; but might be difference between groups
Why is evaluation of these programs hard?
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Opt-in
Don’t opt-in
www.seeaction.energy.gov
• It may be more difficult to measure the impact of behavior-based programs correctly (in contrast to other programs such as appliance rebates)
– Impacts vary significantly between households– Within a household, hard to disentangle changes in
overall energy usage between program, other factors– Savings are relatively small: often 1-5%, so if an
evaluation is biased, large implications
Why is evaluation of these programs hard?
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www.seeaction.energy.gov
Bad evaluation could lead to bad policy decisions
Why is evaluation of these programs hard?
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www.seeaction.energy.gov
• “Evaluation, Measurement, and Verification (EM&V) of Residential Behavior-Based Energy Efficiency Programs”
• Provides guidelines and best practices for – Program design
– Program analysis and evaluation given design
– Provides rankings for different methods
• Target audiences:– Senior managers responsible for overseeing and reviewing efficiency
program designs and evaluations– Practitioners, evaluation professionals, and staff responsible for
reviewing efficiency program designs and evaluations
SEE Action Report
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www.seeaction.energy.gov
• Primary recommendation – a well designed, RCT program results in:– Transparent, straightforward analysis
– Robust, accurate, valid program impact estimates
– High degree of confidence in program effectiveness
• Why?– RCT means that households are assigned to the
program randomly (as opposed to household choice or screening criteria)
– Solves selection bias
Why is designing a program as a randomized controlled trial (RCT) so important?
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www.seeaction.energy.gov
• If RCTs are not feasible, recommendations for acceptable “quasi-experimental” methods– More opaque, difficult, complex analysis
– Quasi-experimental methods try to correct for selection bias
– Lower degree of confidence in validity of savings estimates
Why is designing a program as a randomized controlled trial (RCT) so important?
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www.seeaction.energy.gov
• Problem: Potential conflicts of interest– Recommendation: Third-party evaluator
transparently defines and implements program evaluation, assignment to control and treatment groups, data selection
• Problem: The same savings may be claimed by two programs (e.g., a behavioral program & appliance rebate program both claim savings from appliances)– Recommendation: Estimate and account for this
“double counted savings” overlap to the extent possible by comparing control to treatment groups
Other Key Recommendations
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www.seeaction.energy.gov
• The hope is that in the future, we will have conclusive evidence about the effectiveness of different types of behavior-based programs
• Move away from RCTs• We are not yet at this point…
Recommendations for the Future
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www.seeaction.energy.gov
• Main point: evaluation of behavior-based programs is difficult, but if the program is designed in the right way (using a RCT) then we can be confident that the evaluation of the program’s energy savings is valid
• Many guidelines and technical recommendations in the report:– SEE Action website, www.seeaction.energy.gov
– Lawrence Berkeley National Lab website: behavioranalytics.lbl.gov
Mike Li: [email protected]
Annika Todd: [email protected]
Questions?