michael pantell, e.i.t. · 2018. 9. 25. · calibrated to 2017 event ... microsoft powerpoint -...
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Michael Pantell, E.I.T.
Urban Flood Risk Reduction Study Lathrop/Manteca & SJAFCA
DWR Funded
2015 Existing Conditions
2065 Climate Change
Storm Surge
Sea Level Rise
Global Climate Change Models
Has not been Peer Reviewed
Return Period (Year)
2015 Flow(cfs)
2065 Climate Change Flow
(cfs)Multiplier
10 44,000 48,000 1.09
25 49,000 81,000 1.65
50 65,000 116,000 1.78100 82,000 204,000 2.49200 96,000 310,000 3.23
500 154,000 504,000 3.27
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
220,000
240,000
260,000
280,000
300,000
320,000
340,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Flow
(cf
s)
Time (Days)
Peak 200-Year Flow
HEC RAS 5.0 1D/2D model
Calibrated to 2017 event Verified to 2006 Event
Reviewed by DWR
Created FDA Model
Mossdale Tract Study Area
Lathrop, Manteca & South Stockton
Approximately 65,000 people
Approximately 50,000 structures
6 Index Points
Representative Levee Breaches
Random Flood Event
Annualized Damage/Life Loss
Stage-Frequency Curve
Levee Fragility Curve
Breach Floodplain
Structure Inventory
Damage –Depth Curves
Year Expected Annual Damages
Expected Life Loss
2015 $30,035,000 0.88
2065 $99,405,000 6.48
Under Existing Land Use and Flood Protection System
3 Times the flow in 50 Years Protecting cities will affect other regions Current State and Federal Plans Don’t Address the Issue
Large Investment
Climate Change Predictions Needs Peer Review Small Investment
If Valid, Significant Bypass is Needed