mid-term adequacy forecast 2016 · thank you for your attention daniel huertas hernando, ph.d....
TRANSCRIPT
Mid-termAdequacyForecast2016
6July2016
Page 2
Whatdoweassess?
RisktoEUsecurityofsupplyoverthenext10years
Page 3
Howdidwedoit?
Market-basedprobabilisticmethodologyappliedforthe1sttimetothepan-EUarea
Benchmarkofresultsusing4differentsoftware
Data andassumptions providebasisforfurtherstudiesatregionallevelandnationallevel
Howdidwedoit?
2020Basecase
Dayaheadmarket
2020SensitivityI
Dayaheadmarket
Operationalreserves
2020SensitivityII
Dayaheadmarket
Operationalreserves
HVDCinterconnectionavailability
2025Basecase
Dayaheadmarket
Whatindicatorsdidweuse?
• EnergyNotSuppliedorENSistheamountofenergynotsuppliedexpressedinmegawatthourperyear
• LossofLoadExpectationorLOLE isthenumberofhoursperyeardemandisnotmet
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Whatdidwefindout?Sowhatdidwefindout?
EvolutionoftheriskinEurope
Interactivemaps
Probabilisticmethods
Combinationoffactorstodetect‘exceptional’situations
Probabilisticmethods
Example:2Combinations
Probabilisticresults
AVERAGE
Probabilisticresults
Probabilisticresults:BaseCase2020
Probabilisticresults:BaseCase2025
2020à 2025
@TYNDP2016<0%
Constantdemand
≥0%and<1.03%(ENTSO-Eav)
≥1.03%and<2.06%
≥2.06%
TYNDP2016
Demand
NewGeneration
Mix
FlexibilityandInfrastructurewillbeneeded inthefuture
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Thank you for your attention
Daniel Huertas Hernando, Ph.D.Senior Advisor / Team Lead [email protected]
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Questions?
Lessons learned
For the first time probabilistic methods have been used to assess risk to security of
supply at the pan-European level
The MAF gives the pan-European perspective that can later be used for
additional regional and national studies
Whatweachieved
Need for a permanent group of transmission system operators expert to
work on MAFCoordination and consistency between MAF and regional and national studies needs to
be improvedInformation, knowledge and best practice
exchange increase the quality of all outputs
Whatweachieved
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Whatcanweimprovenexttime?
Use the data of 35 climatic years instead of 14
Improve assumptions on Net Transfer Capacity
Model demand response
Use flow-based models