mid-year population 2017
TRANSCRIPT
Mid-year population estimates 2017
Dr Pali LehohlaStatistician General
@StatsSA#Population
Mid-year population estimates uses the latest available data on fertility, mortality and migration to estimate the population size of
South Africa.
56,52 MillionSouth Africa’s population, mid 2017 is
SouthAfrica’smid-yearpopulationhasincreasedby
902200from2016estimates.
South Africa’s population, mid 2017
56,52 Mil
51% 49%
Female Male
(28,9M) (27,6M)
White 8%(4,5M)
Coloured 9%(5M)
Indian 2%(1,4M)
Black African 81%45,7M
TotalbyPopulationGroups
1,21M
2.89M
3,85M
4,44M
5,78M
6.5M
6,51M
11,06M
14.27M
0,00M 2,00M 4,00M 6,00M 8,00M 10,00M 12,00M 14,00M 16,00M
NorthernCape
FreeState
NorthWest
Mpumalanga
Limpopo
EasternCape
WesternCape
KwaZulu-Natal
Gauteng
There are 14,3M people living in Gauteng and it remains
South Africa’s most populated province. The Northern Cape is the province with the smallest population with 1,2M
people.
PopulationRankbyProvince
WC26%
NC29%
EC34%
FS30%
NW30%
LP35%
MP32%
KZN32%
GP25%
South Africa30%
Limpopo and Eastern Cape have the highest proportion
of people 15 years and under.
Distributionofthoseyoungerthan15yearswithineachprovince
0-4
40-44
5-910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-39
AgeprofileofGautengandEasternCape
EasternCape
Gauteng
Male Female
Gauteng hasmoreworkingagepopulationcomparedtotheEasternCape.
EasternCapehasayoungeragedpopulationwithmorechildren
The rate of population growth has increased over time from 1,17 in 2002 to 1,61 in 2017
1,171,61
-1,50
-1,00
-0,50
0,00
0,50
1,00
1,50
2,00
2,50
3,00
3,50
2002/3 2004/5 2006/7 2008/9 2010/11 2012/13 2014/15 2016/17
GrowthRate
TotalGrowthRate
-0,85
1,56
-1,50
-0,50
0,50
1,50
2,50
3,50
2002/3
2004/5
2006/7
2008/9
2010/11
2012/13
2014/15
2016
/17
Declining population growth rates among young people (15-34) in conjunction with increasing growth rates among elderly aged 60+ indicates
that South Africa's population is Ageing.
GrowthRate
Elderly60+
2,48
0,182002/3
2004/5
2006/7
2008/9
2010/11
2012/13
2014/15
2016
/17
02/03 16/17 02/03 16/17 02/03 16/17
Due to the impact of HIV and AIDS, there was negative growth among children under 15, but with the introduction of PMTCT and ART programs there was a reverse in the growth rate among children from negative to positive.
Youth15-34Children0-14
Fertility(births)
On average, a woman will
give birth tochildren in
her lifetimeProvided that current fertility
behavior prevails
2,41
21,7
24,8
21,4
2,5 2,46
2,73 2,72
2,41
1
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
2
2,2
2,4
2,6
2,8
3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Fertility
Total Fertility RateCrude Birth Rate
Link to demographic dividend: As the rate at which births occur declines, the young dependent population grows smaller in
relation to the working-age population. With more workers and fewer young people to support, a country will have a window of
opportunity for accelerated economic growth.
2.7
2,4Fertilityhasdeclinedfromanaverageof2,73childrenperwomanin2007to2,41childrenperwomanin2017
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
LP EC NW MP NC KZN FS WC GP
National average of children born per female in 2017 GPandWC
experienceaTFRlowerthanthatofthenationalaverage
of2.41
FertilityRates
ProvincialFertilityRates
Mortality (deaths)
LifeexpectancyofSouthAfricansin2017
64years(2017)
Lifeexpectancyhasincreasedby
approximately2yearsbetween2012and2017
NDPtarget:70yearsby2030
LifeexpectancyofSouthAfricansin2017
61,2yearsformales
66,7yearsforfemales
National Development Priorities:Tracking and achieving
progress in demographics
52,9 52,3
61,256,6
54,7
66,7
40,0
45,0
50,0
55,0
60,0
65,0
70,0
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
The decline in Life Expectancy between 2002 and 2006 can be attributed to the impact of HIV
and AIDS.
The gains in life expectancy is accredited to access to ART
LifeExpectancy
Peoplearelivinglonger
LifeExpectancy
Years
72
70
66
65
65
64
64
64
62
67
64
61
61
60
58
58
58
560 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
WCGPNCLPMPNWEC
KZNFS
LifeexpectancybyprovinceAverageof5yeargapinlifeexpectancybetweenmalesandfemales
Years
HIV population (in millions) Prevalence of persons living with HIV
17,65 17,98
20,23 21,17
7,314,64
0,00
5,00
10,00
15,00
20,00
25,00
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Adults15-49 Women15-49 Youth
0
1 000 000
2 000 000
3 000 000
4 000 000
5 000 000
6 000 000
7 000 000
8 000 000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
PersonslivingwithHIV
The decline in prevalence among youth is an indication of decline in the
rate of new infections
7.06 million people are living with HIV. This represents 13 in every 100 people
Over time HIV prevalence amongst adults age 15-49 is increasing whilst declining
among youth 15-24
Improved access and uptake of ARVs in SA has enabled HIV positive people to live longer and healthier lives leading to
an increase in the HIV population over time.
Approximatelyone-fifthofSouthAfricanwomenintheirreproductiveagesareHIVpositive.HIVprevalenceamongtheyouthaged15-24hasdeclinedovertime
from7,3%in2002to4,6in2017.
Rates
13,4 9,0
48,1
32,8
71,3
42,4
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
80,0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Mortality
CrudeDeathRate
InfantMortalityRate
The crude death rate is down from 13,4 deaths per 1 000 people in 2002 to 9,0 deaths per 1 000
people in 2017
Infant mortality has declined from 48,1 infant deaths per 1 000 live births in 2002 to 32,8
infant deaths per 1 000 live births in 2017Under5MortalityRate
Migration
African
1072557
Asia59 432
White-112 740
Immigration contributes to the
growth of the South African population
Internationalmigration2016-2021
Overthelast5yearperiod5outofevery10internationalmigranthassettledinGP
Gauteng, Western Cape, Mpumalanga and the North West province are net receivers of
in-migrants
Limpopo and the Eastern Cape experienced the largest outflow
SelectedProvincialOutMigrationFlows
Western Cape Gauteng Eastern Cape Limpopo
Gauteng is the most preferred destination for international and inter-provincial migrants in South Africa
Whereas Eastern Cape and Limpopo experienced the biggest outflow related to
internal migration
SelectedProvincialInMigrationFlows
Thank youThe Mid-year population estimates, 2017 is also available to download
from the Stats SA app