Migration in Kazakhstan: Trends and Linkages to Migrant

Characteristics

Dauren Chagirov Research analyst, RAKURS Center for

Economic Analysis dchagirov@cear.kz

Objectives

1. To provide an analysis of migration processes in Kazakhstan in 1999-2008

2. Attempt to answer the questions: What is true pattern of migration in Kazakhstan? Is the incidence of migration decreasing or increasing? Is the data consistent with economic situation and political

framework presented?

The migration data in Kazakhstan comes from two sources:1. Data on foreign labor force attracted (registration is based

on tickets of arrival and leaving in registration committees of Ministry of Justice of Republic of Kazakhstan)

2. Data based on quota of foreign labor force attracted from Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of Republic of Kazakhstan

Findings

The data fit the economic events that dominated the country: with economic crisis emigration increased, whereas immigration decreased

People with higher education are most of migrants. Outflow of Kazakh ethnicities, mainly with higher education

started to exaggerate since 2007 Outflow of Russian ethnicities stabilized in the beginning of

2000s, started to rise in 2007 and demonstrates increasing trends

Substantial deterioration of economy of Kazakhstan after the collapse of Soviet Union had its negative effect on demographic situation in Kazakhstan:

The negative influence was reflected in falling of birth rates and rising of death rates

Even more disastrous effect was observed with migration of people

Between 1990 and 1999, on net, 11% of Kazakhstan population left country.

At the peak of economic crisis in first half of 1990s, about 3% of Kazakhstan’s population has emigrated (Becker et al. 2005)

Human reproductive dynamics in Kazakhstan in 1991-2008

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Birth Rate Death Rate Natural Growth Rate Net Migration

External migration in Kazakhstan in 1999-2008

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Emigrated Immigrated

Emigration was falling on average 20% in 1999-2006

Immigration was rising on average 10% in 1999-2005

In 2006, emigration conversely increased by 26% relatively to 2005

In 2005, immigration conversely decreased by 10% relatively to 2004

The research conducted in the area of migration within former Soviet Union countries distinguished among two general characters of migration: economic and ethnic.

In 1991-1999 both economic and ethnic reasons induced the migration with ethnic factors being the dominant power (Locher 2002, Grigorichev 2008)

In 1999-2005 economic factors were the main drivers of migration (Becker 2003, 2005; An and Becker 2009)

Emigration from Kazakhstan, by ethnicities

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

K az akhs R us s ians O thers

Emigration of Russian ethnicity increased by almost 30% in 2007 relative to 2006

Emigration of other ethnicities increased by almost 23% in 2007 relative to 2006

Emigration rate, by education level

0,00

0,50

1,00

1,50

2,00

2,50

3,00

3,50

4,00

4,50

5,00

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Higher education Higher incomplete education

Secondary incomplete education General secondary education

Specialized secondary education

Immigration rate, by level of education

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Higher education Higher incomplete education

Secondary incomplete education General secondary education

Specialized secondary education

Emigration rate, by age

0,00

2,00

4,00

6,00

8,00

10,00

12,00

14,00

16,00

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

16-29 30-49 50-64

The same decreasing trends were observed in 1999-2006 as with ethnicities.

The emigration of those aged 16-29, 30-49 and 50-64 correspondingly increased by 21.5, 35 and 13.36% in 2007 relative to 2006.

In 2008 these rates raised again, thus establishing continuous

increasing trend.

Emigration rate, by age

Immigration rate, by age

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

16-29 30-49 50-64

Emigration rate of people aged 16-29, by education level

0,00

1,00

2,00

3,00

4,00

5,00

6,00

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Higher education Higher incomplete educationSecondary incomplete education General secondary educationSpecialized secondary education

Emigration rate of people aged 30-49, by education level

0,00

0,50

1,00

1,50

2,00

2,50

3,00

3,50

4,00

4,50

5,00

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Higher education Higher incomplete education

Secondary incomplete education General secondary education

Specialized secondary education

Emigration rate of people aged 50-64, by education level

0,00

0,50

1,00

1,50

2,00

2,50

3,00

3,50

4,00

4,50

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Higher education Higher incomplete education

Secondary incomplete education General secondary education

Specialized secondary education

Emigration rate of Kazakhs, by age

0,00

0,10

0,20

0,30

0,40

0,50

0,60

0,70

0,80

0,90

1,00

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

16-29 30-49 50-64

Immigration rate of Kazakhs, by age

0,00

1,00

2,00

3,00

4,00

5,00

6,00

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

16-29 30-49 50-64

External immigration in Kazakhstan of Kazakh ethnicity reveals several interesting issues:

break in stably increasing immigration trend of Kazakh ethnicities (the number of Kazakhs migrated to Kazakhstan increased by almost 4.5 times in 2005 relative to 1999: from 10909 in 1999 to 57850 in 2005)

beginning from 2005, the return of Kazakhs to their motherland reflected downturn.

in 2008 this number decreased by approximately 40% in comparison

with 2005.

Emigration rate of Kazakhs, by level of education

0,00

0,05

0,10

0,15

0,20

0,25

0,30

0,35

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Higher education Higher incomplete education

Secondary incomplete education General secondary education

Specialized secondary education

Immigration rate of Kazakhs, by level of education

0,00

0,50

1,00

1,50

2,00

2,50

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Higher education Higher incomplete education

Secondary incomplete education General secondary education

Specialized secondary education

Emigration rate of Russians, by age

0,00

1,00

2,00

3,00

4,00

5,00

6,00

7,00

8,00

9,00

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

16-29 30-49 50-64

Immigration rate of Russians, by age

0,00

0,20

0,40

0,60

0,80

1,00

1,20

1,40

1,60

1,80

2,00

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

16-29 30-49 50-64

Emigration rate of Russians, by education level

0,00

0,50

1,00

1,50

2,00

2,50

3,00

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Higher education Higher incomplete education Secondary incomplete education

General secondary education Specialized secondary education

Immigration rate of Russians, by education level

0,00

0,10

0,20

0,30

0,40

0,50

0,60

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Higher education Higher incomplete education

Secondary incomplete education General secondary education

Specialized secondary education

Trends & Challenges

Outflow of the most educated part of population in 2007

Repatriation of Kazakhs ethnicities back to their historical motherland reflects downturn; barrier to government in its attempt to solve the socio-demographic situation of Kazakhstan and thus signal inefficiency of program of repatriation.

Emigration of mostly young, able bodied part of population is in existence.

Emigration processes in Kazakhstan impose substantial restrictions on attempts of Kazakhstan government to build up non-oil economy.

Thank you