mike evans nws / wfo bgm. cstar v – severe convection in scenarios with low-predictive skill suny...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Mike Evans NWS / WFO BGM. CSTAR V – Severe convection in scenarios with low-predictive skill SUNY Albany researchers are examining SPC forecasts and associated](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062423/56649ebc5503460f94bc5a3e/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
An assessment of local forecaster’s ability to anticipate convective event
severity using the Hazardous Weather Outlook at WFO Binghamton
Mike Evans NWS / WFO BGM
![Page 2: Mike Evans NWS / WFO BGM. CSTAR V – Severe convection in scenarios with low-predictive skill SUNY Albany researchers are examining SPC forecasts and associated](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062423/56649ebc5503460f94bc5a3e/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
CSTAR V – Severe convection in scenarios with low-predictive skillSUNY Albany researchers are examining SPC
forecasts and associated severe weather occurrence to identify events with low-predictive skill.
Their project covers the CONUS, with an emphasis on the northeast.
Goal will be to identify environments with low predictive skill, and to improve forecasts in those environments.
![Page 3: Mike Evans NWS / WFO BGM. CSTAR V – Severe convection in scenarios with low-predictive skill SUNY Albany researchers are examining SPC forecasts and associated](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062423/56649ebc5503460f94bc5a3e/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Local study outlineExamine day 1 NWS BGM forecasts issued on the
midnight shift from 2011-August 2014.Define a “warning” as any time Hazardous Weather
Outlook product indicates “severe”, “large hail” or “damaging wind” during the next 24 hours.
Define an “event” as a day when at least 5 severe weather reports were received.
How good are our warnings? What factors influence the quality of our warnings?
Note… Joe Villani in Albany has been working on a similar study for the ALY county warning area.
![Page 4: Mike Evans NWS / WFO BGM. CSTAR V – Severe convection in scenarios with low-predictive skill SUNY Albany researchers are examining SPC forecasts and associated](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062423/56649ebc5503460f94bc5a3e/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Hazardous Weather OutlooksExample of a “warning” Example of a “non-
warning”
![Page 5: Mike Evans NWS / WFO BGM. CSTAR V – Severe convection in scenarios with low-predictive skill SUNY Albany researchers are examining SPC forecasts and associated](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062423/56649ebc5503460f94bc5a3e/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
How many severe reports are needed for an “event” to be identified?
So… bigger events are more likely to be caught than marginal events.Using a high threshold results in lots of false alarms.
For the rest of this study, an event is defined as 5 or more reports.
![Page 6: Mike Evans NWS / WFO BGM. CSTAR V – Severe convection in scenarios with low-predictive skill SUNY Albany researchers are examining SPC forecasts and associated](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062423/56649ebc5503460f94bc5a3e/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
POD and FAR
![Page 7: Mike Evans NWS / WFO BGM. CSTAR V – Severe convection in scenarios with low-predictive skill SUNY Albany researchers are examining SPC forecasts and associated](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062423/56649ebc5503460f94bc5a3e/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
POD and FAR by month
Events: 5 10 13 17 7 6 1 59Warnings: 7 14 15 24 7 8 1 76
![Page 8: Mike Evans NWS / WFO BGM. CSTAR V – Severe convection in scenarios with low-predictive skill SUNY Albany researchers are examining SPC forecasts and associated](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062423/56649ebc5503460f94bc5a3e/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
POD and FAR by season
Events: 22 37Warnings: 30 46
![Page 9: Mike Evans NWS / WFO BGM. CSTAR V – Severe convection in scenarios with low-predictive skill SUNY Albany researchers are examining SPC forecasts and associated](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062423/56649ebc5503460f94bc5a3e/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Do “dry-spells” bias our forecasts?
Events: 7 of 15 30 of 44
![Page 10: Mike Evans NWS / WFO BGM. CSTAR V – Severe convection in scenarios with low-predictive skill SUNY Albany researchers are examining SPC forecasts and associated](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062423/56649ebc5503460f94bc5a3e/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
What about the large-scale environment?Define – “good forecast” events as events
with a warning.Define – “over-achieving” events as events
with no warning.Define – “under-achieving” events as a
warning issued with no event.
![Page 11: Mike Evans NWS / WFO BGM. CSTAR V – Severe convection in scenarios with low-predictive skill SUNY Albany researchers are examining SPC forecasts and associated](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062423/56649ebc5503460f94bc5a3e/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
POD and FARM
LC
AP
E
(J/k
g)
0-3
km
sh
ear
(kt)
![Page 12: Mike Evans NWS / WFO BGM. CSTAR V – Severe convection in scenarios with low-predictive skill SUNY Albany researchers are examining SPC forecasts and associated](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062423/56649ebc5503460f94bc5a3e/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
High CAPE / High shear events
![Page 13: Mike Evans NWS / WFO BGM. CSTAR V – Severe convection in scenarios with low-predictive skill SUNY Albany researchers are examining SPC forecasts and associated](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062423/56649ebc5503460f94bc5a3e/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Low CAPE / High shear events
![Page 14: Mike Evans NWS / WFO BGM. CSTAR V – Severe convection in scenarios with low-predictive skill SUNY Albany researchers are examining SPC forecasts and associated](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062423/56649ebc5503460f94bc5a3e/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
High CAPE / Low shear events
![Page 15: Mike Evans NWS / WFO BGM. CSTAR V – Severe convection in scenarios with low-predictive skill SUNY Albany researchers are examining SPC forecasts and associated](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062423/56649ebc5503460f94bc5a3e/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Summary
![Page 16: Mike Evans NWS / WFO BGM. CSTAR V – Severe convection in scenarios with low-predictive skill SUNY Albany researchers are examining SPC forecasts and associated](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062423/56649ebc5503460f94bc5a3e/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Example – June 24, 2013
![Page 17: Mike Evans NWS / WFO BGM. CSTAR V – Severe convection in scenarios with low-predictive skill SUNY Albany researchers are examining SPC forecasts and associated](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062423/56649ebc5503460f94bc5a3e/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
SPC damaging wind outlook
![Page 18: Mike Evans NWS / WFO BGM. CSTAR V – Severe convection in scenarios with low-predictive skill SUNY Albany researchers are examining SPC forecasts and associated](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062423/56649ebc5503460f94bc5a3e/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
SPC hail outlook
![Page 19: Mike Evans NWS / WFO BGM. CSTAR V – Severe convection in scenarios with low-predictive skill SUNY Albany researchers are examining SPC forecasts and associated](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062423/56649ebc5503460f94bc5a3e/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
500 mb heights and vorticity
![Page 20: Mike Evans NWS / WFO BGM. CSTAR V – Severe convection in scenarios with low-predictive skill SUNY Albany researchers are examining SPC forecasts and associated](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062423/56649ebc5503460f94bc5a3e/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Sea-level pressure and satellite
![Page 21: Mike Evans NWS / WFO BGM. CSTAR V – Severe convection in scenarios with low-predictive skill SUNY Albany researchers are examining SPC forecasts and associated](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062423/56649ebc5503460f94bc5a3e/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
2 hour RAP Sounding at BGM valid 20z
![Page 22: Mike Evans NWS / WFO BGM. CSTAR V – Severe convection in scenarios with low-predictive skill SUNY Albany researchers are examining SPC forecasts and associated](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062423/56649ebc5503460f94bc5a3e/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Radar reflectivity animation
![Page 23: Mike Evans NWS / WFO BGM. CSTAR V – Severe convection in scenarios with low-predictive skill SUNY Albany researchers are examining SPC forecasts and associated](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062423/56649ebc5503460f94bc5a3e/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
BGM Hazardous Weather Outlook – issued at 422 AM June 24, 2013
“SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON… SOME MAY CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL”.
![Page 24: Mike Evans NWS / WFO BGM. CSTAR V – Severe convection in scenarios with low-predictive skill SUNY Albany researchers are examining SPC forecasts and associated](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062423/56649ebc5503460f94bc5a3e/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Severe reports – June 24, 201322 large hail reports16 damaging wind reports7 days since the previous severe weather
occurrence
![Page 25: Mike Evans NWS / WFO BGM. CSTAR V – Severe convection in scenarios with low-predictive skill SUNY Albany researchers are examining SPC forecasts and associated](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062423/56649ebc5503460f94bc5a3e/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Future WorkResults from this study and work at ALY will
be compared to results from the larger study at SUNY ALY.
These results will be available next year.