milk market situation - european commission · pdf filemilk market situation ... e u m i l k p...

Milk Market Situation

Brussels, 17 May 2018

17 May 2018

17 May 2018

EU Productions

!!! Data from some Member States are confidential and are NOT included in this table !!!

+3.5%+1.7%

+9.4%

-1.7% -1.2%

-8.3%

-1.2%

+2.8%+2.6%

- 15%

- 10%

- 5%

+ 0%

+ 5%

+ 10%

+ 15%EU Productions (Jan-Feb 2018 compared to Jan-Feb

17 May 2018

-3.0% to -1.3%

-1.3% to -0.5%

-0.5% to -0.4%

-0.4% to 0.0%

0.0% to +2.8%

+2.8% to +4.1%

+4.1% to +6.6%

+6.6% to +28.0%

n/a+7.4

+27.9

+5.8

+2.5

+4.5

+4.1

+5.6

+3.6+4.5

+3.8

+5.7

+10.0

-0.4

+0.2

+9.6

-3.0

0

-0.5

+8.9

+3.3

+4.0

+10.4+3.1

+1.9

-0.1

-1.3

+1.3

Source : MS' Communications to Eurostat, FEGA, AGEA, Reg.479/2010.1(a)1

+1.3

DE, EL, HR, CY and SE figures based on MS notifications to DG AGRI - estimation for IT

17 May 2018

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000

Ton

nes

EU - Cows' milk collected

2015

2016

2017

2018

Jan-Feb 2018/17 : +3.5%

Last update : Jan-FebSource : Estat - Newcronos

Jan-Feb 2018/17 : + 3.5%

DE, EL, HR, CY and SE figures based on MS notifications to DG AGRI - estimation for IT

17 May 2018

33.8

31.0

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

50Ja

n 0

1

Jan 0

2

Jan 0

3

Jan 0

4

Jan 0

5

Jan 0

6

Jan 0

7

Jan 0

8

Jan 0

9

Jan 1

0

Jan 1

1

Jan 1

2

Jan 1

3

Jan 1

4

Jan 1

5

Jan 1

6

Jan 1

7

Jan 1

8

EUR/100 kgEU Raw Milk Prices Evolution (up to March 2018)

Weighted EU Average (real fat content)

EU Milk Equiv. Price (based on SMP and Butter prices)

Source : MS’ communications under Reg. (EU) No 2017/1185 Article 12(a) - Annex II.4(a)

* : provisional figures

54

.1

46

.4

40

.0

39

.3

37

.0

36

.3

35

.8

35

.5

34

.5

34

.2

33

.9

33

.8

33

.1

32

.8

32

.4

32

.4

32

.2

32

.1

32

.0

31

.5

31

.0

30

.7

30

.7

30

.2

30

.0

30

.0

29

.2

28

.7

27

.5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

CY MT GR FI AT IE IT NL SE DE FR EU HR CZ SK PL UK DK LU ES BE HU RO PT BG EE SI LT LV

in E

UR

/1

00

kg

E U M I L K P R I C E S

Milk price 2017

Milk price 2018

Source : Member States (Regulation (EU) No 2017/1185 Article 12(a) - Annex II.4(a))

( Mar 2018 vs Mar 2017 )

Source: MS’ communications under Reg. 479//2010

NB: The above national price averages are of mixed nature, some relate to standardised milk,

others to milk with real fat and protein content, pending harmonisation under reg. 479/2010

17 May 2018

Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010

100

150

200

250

300

350Ja

n

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00 k

g

Weekly EU SMP Prices

2015 2016 2017 2018 IP 2009

Latest price : 144 EUR/100kg

Evolution compared to same period last year : -20%

17 May 2018

149149

145 144 144

131129 129

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

NL DE BE CZ EU Avg. SK PL IE

in E

UR/1

00 kg

EU S.M.P. Prices (up to 13.05.2018)

I.P. : 169.8

Source: Regulation (EU) No 2017/1185 Article 11 - Annex I.7

17 May 2018

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700Ja

n

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00 k

g

Weekly EU BUTTER Prices

2015 2016 2017 2018 IP 2009

Evolution compared to same period last year : +24%


17 May 2018


616 609590

558

525 519 516 510

477

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

EE DE NL EU Avg. IT SK IE PL CZ

EU

R/1

00 k

g

EU BUTTER Prices (up to 13.05.2018)

Source : Regulation (EU) No 2017/1185 Article 11 - Annex I.7

I.P. = 221.75

17 May 2018

558

144

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18

in E

UR/100 k

g

.

EU Quotations of Butter and SMP(EU average based on MS communication and weighted by production)

Butter Intervention buying in price SMP Intervention buying in price

BUTTER prices SMP prices

Source: MS’ communications under reg. 562/2005 and 479/2010

17 May 2018

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

Jan 0

3

Jan 0

4

Jan 0

5

Jan 0

6

Jan 0

7

Jan 0

8

Jan 0

9

Jan 1

0

Jan 1

1

Jan 1

2

Jan 1

3

Jan 1

4

Jan 1

5

Jan 1

6

Jan 1

7

Jan 1

8

in E

UR/1

00 k

g

EU Dairy Quotations

(EU Average Prices based on MS communication and weighted by production)

BUTTER

SMP

WMP

CHEDDAR

Source: Regulation (EU) No 2017/1185 Article 11 - Annex I.7

17 May 2018


150

200

250

300

350

400

450Ja

n

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00 k

g

Weekly EU WMP Prices

2015 2016 2017 2018



17 May 2018


17 May 2018

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00 k

g

Weekly EU CHEDDAR Prices

2015 2016 2017 2018



150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/100 k

g

Weekly EU EDAM Prices

2015 2016 2017 2018




17 May 2018

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00 k

g

Weekly EU WheyPowder Prices

2015 2016 2017 2018



- 25 000

0

25 000

50 000

75 000

100 000

125 000

150 000

175 000

200 000

225 000

250 000

275 000

300 000

325 000

350 000

375 000

400 000

Qu

anti

ty in

to

nn

es

Public SMP Intervention scheme (2017-2018)Buying-in quantity at fixed price

Quantities In (2018) Quantities Out (2018)

Quantity offered (2017) Stocks level end of month (2017)

Quantity offered (2018) Stocks level end of month (2018)

371 849

17 May 2018

17 May 2018

EUR/USD

1.1934

17 May 2018

2 038

1 686

1 843

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000

Jan 1

1

Apr

11

Jul 11

Oct 1

1

Jan 1

2

Apr

12

Jul 12

Oct 1

2

Jan 1

3

Apr

13

Jul 13

Oct 1

3

Jan 1

4

Apr

14

Jul 14

Oct 1

4

Jan 1

5

Apr

15

Jul 15

Oct 1

5

Jan 1

6

Apr

16

Jul 16

Oct 1

6

Jan 1

7

Apr

17

Jul 17

Oct 1

7

Jan 1

8

Apr

18

Prices in U

SD

/tonne

EU/US/Oceania Quotations of SMP

Avg Oceania SMP quotation

Avg EU SMP internal Price

Avg US SMP quotation

Source: MS’ communications under Reg. 2017/1185 & USDA market news

17 May 2018

3 2633 251

3 362

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000

Ja

n 1

1

Apr

11

Ju

l 11

Oct

11

Ja

n 1

2

Apr

12

Ju

l 12

Oct

12

Ja

n 1

3

Apr

13

Ju

l 13

Oct

13

Ja

n 1

4

Apr

14

Ju

l 14

Oct

14

Ja

n 1

5

Apr

15

Ju

l 15

Oct

15

Ja

n 1

6

Apr

16

Ju

l 16

Oct

16

Ja

n 1

7

Apr

17

Ju

l 17

Oct

17

Ja

n 1

8

Apr

18

Pri

ces in U

SD

/tonne

EU/US/Oceania Quotations of WMP

Avg Oceania WMP quotation

Avg EU WMP internal Price

Avg US WMP quotation


17 May 2018

5 700

6 524

5 195

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000

6 500

7 000

7 500

8 000

8 500

Jan 1

1

Apr

11

Jul 11

Oct 1

1

Jan 1

2

Apr

12

Jul 12

Oct 1

2

Jan 1

3

Apr

13

Jul 13

Oct 1

3

Jan 1

4

Apr

14

Jul 14

Oct 1

4

Jan 1

5

Apr

15

Jul 15

Oct 1

5

Jan 1

6

Apr

16

Jul 16

Oct 1

6

Jan 1

7

Apr

17

Jul 17

Oct 1

7

Jan 1

8

Apr

18

Prices in U

SD

/tonne

EU/US/Oceania Quotations of Butter

Avg Oceania Butter quotation

Avg EU Butter internal Price

Avg US Butter quotation


17 May 2018

3 963

3 653

3 889

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000Ja

n 1

1

Apr

11

Ju

l 11

Oct

11

Ja

n 1

2

Apr

12

Ju

l 12

Oct

12

Ja

n 1

3

Apr

13

Ju

l 13

Oct

13

Ja

n 1

4

Apr

14

Ju

l 14

Oct

14

Ja

n 1

5

Apr

15

Ju

l 15

Oct

15

Ja

n 1

6

Apr

16

Ju

l 16

Oct

16

Ja

n 1

7

Apr

17

Ju

l 17

Oct

17

Ja

n 1

8

Apr

18

Pri

ces in

US

D/tonne

EU/US/Oceania Quotations of Cheddar

Avg OceaniaCheddar quotation

Avg EU Cheddar internal Price

Avg US Cheddar quotation


17 May 2018

45 578 51 949

117 131 114 904

3 032 3 163

5 7499 494

458 1 313

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

2017 2018

BUTTER & Butteroil

Exports

EU-28 (up to Mar)New Zealand (up to Mar)Australia (up to Mar)United States (up to Mar)Argentina (up to Feb)

17 May 2018

191 555207 068

104 123 110 801

38 365 . 41 014 .

148 757 .

183 398 .

5 180 1 431

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

2017 2018

SMP ExportsEU-28 (up to Mar)New Zealand (up to Mar)Australia (up to Mar)United States (up to Mar)Argentina (up to Feb)

17 May 2018

107

383

94 3

18

344 452 .

386 834 .

14 6

89

18 1

77

6 64

2

10 6

24

11 8

95

14 8

61

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

450 000

2017 2018

WMP ExportsEU-28 (up to Mar)New Zealand (up to Mar)Australia (up to Mar)United States (up to Mar)Argentina (up to Feb)

17 May 2018

201 523 204 230

88 69380 649

43 0

25

40 7

14

80 52989 188

6 547 8 474

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

2017 2018

CHEESE

Exports

EU-28 (up to Mar)New Zealand (up to Mar)Australia (up to Mar)United States (up to Mar)Argentina (up to Feb)

17 May 2018

EU-28 Exports (1/2) Source : Eurostat (COMEXT)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

94102 102

120

135

162

137

1000 Tonnes

BUTTER exports

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18


1000 tonnes

Jan- Mar 2018 exports compared to 2017 : + 8%

BUTTER exports

2017

2018

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

515 520

407

648695

580

780

1000 TonnesSMP exports

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90


1000 tonnes


SMP exports

2017

2018

17 May 2018

EU-28 Exports (2/2)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

673

768 786721 719

800830

1000 Tonnes

CHEESE exports

300

400

500

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

388 386374

390401

382394

1000 TonnesWMP exports

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90


1000 tonnes


CHEESE exports

2017

2018

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


1000 tonnes

Jan- Mar 2018 exports compared to 2017 : - 12%

WMP exports

2017

2018

17 May 2018

2 829 2 192

10 8889 465

17 506

8 681

24 010

31 180

11 547

3 524

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

2 017 2 018

BUTTER + Butteroil

Imports

EU-28 (up to Mar)

United States (up to Mar)

Russia (up to Feb)

China (up to Mar)

Mexico (up to Feb)

17 May 2018

6621 062

47 15251 457

20 230

11 922

74 343

82 480

10 301

18 766

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

80 000

90 000

2 017 2 018

SMP ImportsEU-28 (up to Mar)

Mexico (up to Feb)

Russia (up to Feb)

China (up to Mar)

Japan (up to Mar)

17 May 2018

453 19510 030 3 524

196 106215 525

6 416 1 66328 4090

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

2 017 2 018

WMP ImportsEU-28 (up to Mar)

Russia (up to Feb)

China (up to Mar)


Mexico (up to Feb)

17 May 2018

13 68814 440

42 20338 212

33 88630 471

28 132 26 721

64 62267 942

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

80 000

2 017 2 018

CHEESE

Imports

EU-28 (up to Mar)


Russia (up to Feb)

China (up to Mar)

Japan (up to Mar)

17 May 2018

Main Dairy Importers (Butter + Butteroil 1/2)

0

25

50

75

100

125

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

73 68

136 139

96 105 98

1000 Tonnes

Russia

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14


1000 tonnes

Jan-Feb 2018 compared to 2017 : - 50%

2017

2016

2018

0

25

50

75

100

125

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

3648 52

80 7182

92

1000 Tonnes

China

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20


1000 tonnes

Jan-Mar 2018 compared to 2017 : + 30%

2017

2018

17 May 2018

Main Dairy Importers (Butter + Butteroil 2/2)

0

25

50

75

100

125

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

13 18 14 2240 47 44

1000 Tonnes

United States

0

25

50

75

100

125

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

29 3040

30 3552

39

1000 Tonnes

Mexico

0

2

4

6

8

10

12


1000 tonnes Jan-Mar 2018 compared to 2017 : - 13%

2017

2018

Jan-Mar 2018 compared to 2017 : - 13%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12


1000 tonnes


2017

2016

2018


17 May 2018

Main Dairy Importers (S.M.P. - 1/2)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

130168

235 253200 184

247

1000 Tonnes

China

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50


1000 tonnes


20172018

0

50

100

150

200

250

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

129 112 120

168136 119

161

1000 Tonnes

Algeria

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40


1000 tonnes


2017

2017


2018

17 May 2018

Main Dairy Importers (S.M.P. – 2/2)

0

50

100

150

200

250

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

27 27

112 95116

136 126

1000 Tonnes

Russia

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20


1000 tonnes

2017

2014


2016

2018

0

5

10

15

20

25

1000 tonnes

Jan-Feb 2018 compared to 2017 : + 9%

2009

2010

0

50

100

150

200

250

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

194236

198 203

259 286 331

1000 Tonnes

Mexico

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40


1000 tonnes

Jan-Feb 2018 compared to 2017 : + 9%

2017

2018

17 May 2018

Main Dairy Importers (W.M.P. 1/2)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

320406

619 671

347420 470

1000 Tonnes

China

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160


1000 tonnes


2017

2018

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

204 188142

204 224 224262

1000 Tonnes

Algeria

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


1000 tonnes


2017

2017


2018

17 May 2018

Main Dairy Importers (W.M.P. 2/2)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

51 64 74 81 75 86 87

1000 Tonnes

Hong Kong

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

55 71 54 3059

12673

1000 Tonnes

Brazil

0

5

10

15

20

25

30


1000 tonnes


2017

2018

0

5

10

15

20

25

30


1000 tonnesJan-Mar 2018 compared to 2017 : - 63%

2017

2013 2016


2018

17 May 2018

Main Dairy Importers (Cheese – 1/2)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

296 316

440

321

209 223 226

1000 Tonnes

Russia

0

5

10

15

20

25


1000 tonnes


2017

2016 2017

2018

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

215 235 236 232 249 258 273

1000 Tonnes

Japan

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40


1000 tonnes


2017

2018

17 May 2018

Main Dairy Importers (Cheese – 2/2)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

76 78 85 97 112 110 125

1000 Tonnes

South Korea

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

143 154 148 165200 205 183

1000 Tonnes

United States

0

5

10

15

20

25


1000 tonnes


2017

2018

0

5

10

15

20

25


1000 tonnes


2017

2018

17 May 2018

7 000

7 200

7 400

7 600

7 800

8 000

8 200

8 400

8 600

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

in 1

000 t

on

nes

U.S. milk production

2015

2016

2017

2018

Source:USDA

Jan-Mar 2018 vs 2017 : + 1.5% (real monthly production)

17 May 2018

Source: Dairy Australia

500

600

700

800

900

1 000

1 100

1 200

Ju

l

Au

g

Sep

Oct

No

v

Dec

Ja

n

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

n

in 1

000 t

on

nes

Jul-Mar 2017/18 compared to 2016/17 : + 3.4%

Australian milk production

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

17 May 2018

Source: DCANZ - Fonterra

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Sep

Oct

No

v

Dec

Ja

n

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

in 1

000 t

on

nes

.

Jun-Mar 2017/18 compared to 2016/17 : - 0.3%

NZ milk production

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

17 May 2018

GDT Auction results

Average price (USD/MT, FAS)

Event 21215 May 2018

+1.9%

$ 3 637

Event 21215 May 2018

+1.9%

$ 3 637

Anhydrous Milk Fat

+5.8$ 6 354

Butter

+2.4%$ 5 787

Butter MilkPowder

n/rn/a

Cheddar

+4.4%$ 4 205

Anhydrous Milk Fat

+5.8%$ 6 354

Butter

+2.4%$ 5 787

Butter MilkPowder

n/rn/a

Cheddar

+4.4%$ 4 205

Lactose

-3.5%$ 687

Rennet Casein

+4.4%$ 4 205

Skim MilkPowder

+3.0%$ 2 047

Lactose

-3.5%$ 687

Rennet Casein

+4.4%$ 4 205

Skim MilkPowder

+3.0%$ 2 047

Whole MilkPowder

+0.2%$ 3 226

milk market situation - european commission · pdf filemilk market situation ... e u m i l k p...

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