milk market situation...milk market situation brussels, 17 june 2021 the united kingdom is no longer...

Milk Market Situation

Brussels, 17 June 2021

The United Kingdom is no longer a Member State of the European Union, however where it is deemed relevant (e.g. for comparison purposes) EU+UK aggregates may still be displayed.

!!! Data from some Member States are confidential and are NOT included in this table !!!

Jan-Apr 2021/20: -0.7%

(leap year adjusted: +0.1%)

-4.0% to -1.5%

-1.5% to -1.2%

-1.2% to -0.9%

-0.9% to 0.0%

0.0% to +1.0%

+1.0% to +2.6%

+2.6% to +5.4%

+5.4% to +18.0%

n/a-0.5

+1.4

-1.1

-0.4

-1.4

+1.1

+9.2

+5.2-0.6

-1.6

+2.9

+17.1

+5.5

-1.1

+6.0

-3.1

-1.2

-1.3

+1.0

0

+0.5+2.7

-1.0

-2.8

+2.6

Source : MS' Communications to Eurostat, FEGA, AGEA, Reg.479/2010.1(a)1

+1.0

DE, EL, HR, CY and SE figures based on MS notifications to DG AGRI - estimation for IT

The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever o n the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

-2.0% to -0.9%

-0.9% to -0.7%

-0.7% to -0.6%

-0.6% to 0.0%

0.0% to +1.1%

+1.1% to +2.0%

+2.0% to +3.3%

+3.3% to +16.0%

n/a+1.2

+3.2

+1.7

+0.4

-0.9

+2.3

+5.2

+3.7+0.5

-0.9

+3.7

+16.0

+2.5

-0.6

+3.7

+1.4

-0.6

-1.6

+1.5

+0.5

+1.5+2.6

+0.6

-0.4

+3.2

Source : MS' Communications to Eurostat, FEGA, AGEA, Reg.479/2010.1(a)1

+0.8

Estimated figures for: EL, and IT

The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever o n the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

10 000

11 000

12 000

13 000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

10

00

To

nn

es

EU - Cows' milk collected

2018

2019

2020

2021

Jan-Apr 2021/20: - 0.7%

Source: Estat (Newcronos) - MS notifications - CLAL(IT)

LU not included (confidential data)

Jan-Apr 2021/20 (leap year adjusted): + 0.1%

35.4

37.2

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

50

Jan 0

1

Jan 0

2

Jan 0

3

Jan 0

4

Jan 0

5

Jan 0

6

Jan 0

7

Jan 0

8

Jan 0

9

Jan 1

0

Jan 1

1

Jan 1

2

Jan 1

3

Jan 1

4

Jan 1

5

Jan 1

6

Jan 1

7

Jan 1

8

Jan 1

9

Jan 2

0

Jan 2

1

EUR/100 kgEU evolutive* Raw Milk Prices Evolution (up to Apr 2021)

Weighted EU Average (real fat content)

EU Milk Equiv. Price (based on SMP and Butter prices)

Source : MS’ communications under Reg. (EU) No 2017/1185 Article 12(a) - Annex II.4(a)

* : provisional figures

* EU evolutive: EU-15 (before 2004), EU-25 (2004 to 2006), EU-27 (2007 to 2013), EU-28 (2013 to 01/2020), EU-27 without UK (from 02/2020 onwards)

57.8

55.6

38.8

38.6

38.1

38.1

37.3

36.6

36.5

36.0

36.0

35.6

35.4

35.3

33.5

33.3

33.1

32.6

32.4

32.2

31.9

31.7

31.1

31.0

30.8

30.5

30.0

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

CY MT GR FI SE AT DK IE° FR NL IT DE EU* BE HR CZ PL ES BG SK LT SI EE HU RO LV PT

in E

UR

/1

00

kg

EU MILK PRICES

Milk price 2020

Milk price 2021

Source : Member States (Regulation (EU) No 2017/1185 Article 12(a) - Annex II.4(a))

( Apr 2021 vs Apr 2020 )

: estimated figures for Apr 2021*: without UK

100

150

200

250

300

350

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00 k

g

Weekly EU SMP Prices

2018 2019 2020 2021 IP 2009

Latest price : 260 EUR/100kg

Evolution compared to same period last year : +20%

265 262 261 260 255249 246

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

DE FR BE EU Avg. CZ PL IE

in E

UR/1

00 kg

EU S.M.P. Prices (up to 6.06.2021)

I.P. : 169.8

Source: Regulation (EU) No 2017/1185 Article 11 - Annex I.7

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650Ja

n

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00 k

g

Weekly EU BUTTER Prices

2018 2019 2020 2021 IP 2009



504

452 447

422 413 412 407390 390 387

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

SK FR CZ EE EU Avg. BE DE ES PL IE

EU

R/1

00 k

g

EU BUTTER Prices (up to 6.06.2021)

Source : Regulation (EU) No 2017/1185 Article 11 - Annex I.7

I.P. = 221.75

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700Jan 0

3

Jan 0

4

Jan 0

5

Jan 0

6

Jan 0

7

Jan 0

8

Jan 0

9

Jan 1

0

Jan 1

1

Jan 1

2

Jan 1

3

Jan 1

4

Jan 1

5

Jan 1

6

Jan 1

7

Jan 1

8

Jan 1

9

Jan 2

0

Jan 2

1

in E

UR/100 k

g

.

EU Quotations of Butter and SMP(EU average based on MS communication and weighted by production)

Butter Intervention buying in price SMP Intervention buying in price

BUTTER prices SMP prices

Source: MS’ communications under reg. 562/2005 and 479/2010

413

260

EU evolutive (without UK from 02/2020 onwards)

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

Jan 0

3

Jan 0

4

Jan 0

5

Jan 0

6

Jan 0

7

Jan 0

8

Jan 0

9

Jan 1

0

Jan 1

1

Jan 1

2

Jan 1

3

Jan 1

4

Jan 1

5

Jan 1

6

Jan 1

7

Jan 1

8

Jan 1

9

Jan 2

0

Jan 2

1

in E

UR/1

00 k

g

EU evolutive* dairy Quotations

(EU Average Prices based on MS communication and weighted by production)

BUTTER

SMP

WMP

CHEDDAR

Source: Regulation (EU) No 2017/1185 Article 11 - Annex I.7

* EU evolutive: EU-15 (before 2004), EU-25 (2004 to 2006), EU-27 (2007 to 2013), EU-28 (2013 to 01/2020), EU-27 without UK (from 02/2020 onwards)

150

200

250

300

350

400

450Ja

n

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00 k

g

Weekly EU WMP Prices

2018 2019 2020 2021



200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00 k

g

Weekly EU* CHEDDAR Prices

2018 2019 2020 2021



200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/100 k

g

Weekly EU* EDAM Prices

2018 2019 2020 2021



50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00 k

g

Weekly EU WheyPowder Prices

2018 2019 2020 2021 Series2



EUR/USD

1.2195

3 538

3 131

2 846

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

Fe

b 1

4

Ma

y 14

Aug

14

Nov 1

4

Fe

b 1

5

Ma

y 15

Aug

15

Nov 1

5

Fe

b 1

6

Ma

y 16

Aug

16

Nov 1

6

Fe

b 1

7

Ma

y 17

Aug

17

Nov 1

7

Fe

b 1

8

Ma

y 18

Aug

18

Nov 1

8

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

y 19

Aug

19

Nov 1

9

Fe

b 2

0

Ma

y 20

Aug

20

Nov 2

0

Fe

b 2

1

Ma

y 21

Prices in U

SD

/tonne

EU*/US/Oceania Quotations of SMP

Avg Oceania SMP quotation

Avg EU SMP internal Price

Avg US SMP quotation

Source: MS’ communications under Reg. 2017/1185 & USDA market news

* EU evolutive

4 150

3 9073 977

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000

Fe

b 1

4

Ma

y 14

Aug

14

Nov 1

4

Fe

b 1

5

Ma

y 15

Aug

15

Nov 1

5

Fe

b 1

6

Ma

y 16

Aug

16

Nov 1

6

Fe

b 1

7

Ma

y 17

Aug

17

Nov 1

7

Fe

b 1

8

Ma

y 18

Aug

18

Nov 1

8

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

y 19

Aug

19

Nov 1

9

Fe

b 2

0

Ma

y 20

Aug

20

Nov 2

0

Fe

b 2

1

Ma

y 21

Prices in U

SD

/tonne

EU*/US/Oceania Quotations of WMP

Avg Oceania WMP quotation

Avg EU WMP internal Price

Avg US WMP quotation


* EU evolutive

5 1254 996

3 988

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000

6 500

7 000

7 500

8 000

8 500

Fe

b 1

4

Ma

y 14

Aug

14

Nov 1

4

Fe

b 1

5

Ma

y 15

Aug

15

Nov 1

5

Fe

b 1

6

Ma

y 16

Aug

16

Nov 1

6

Fe

b 1

7

Ma

y 17

Aug

17

Nov 1

7

Fe

b 1

8

Ma

y 18

Aug

18

Nov 1

8

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

y 19

Aug

19

Nov 1

9

Fe

b 2

0

Ma

y 20

Aug

20

Nov 2

0

Fe

b 2

1

Ma

y 21

Prices in U

SD

/tonne

EU*/US/Oceania Quotations of Butter

Avg Oceania Butter quotation

Avg EU Butter internal Price

Avg US Butter quotation


* EU evolutive

4 425

3 808

3 402

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000

6 500

Fe

b 1

4

Ma

y 14

Aug

14

Nov 1

4

Fe

b 1

5

Ma

y 15

Aug

15

Nov 1

5

Fe

b 1

6

Ma

y 16

Aug

16

Nov 1

6

Fe

b 1

7

Ma

y 17

Aug

17

Nov 1

7

Fe

b 1

8

Ma

y 18

Aug

18

Nov 1

8

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

y 19

Aug

19

Nov 1

9

Fe

b 2

0

Ma

y 20

Aug

20

Nov 2

0

Fe

b 2

1

Ma

y 21

Prices in U

SD

/tonne

EU*/US/Oceania Quotations of Cheddar

Avg OceaniaCheddar quotation

Avg EU Cheddar internal Price

Avg US Cheddar quotation


* EU evolutive

EU*: without UK

Main exporters

EU*: without UK

Main exportersnotice: trade between EU and UK for May 2020 is incomplete.

Main exporters

EU Exports (1/2)Source : Eurostat (COMEXT)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

178187

232

206 198

240261

1000 Tonnes

BUTTER exports

0

5

10

15

20

25


1000 tonnes

Jan- Apr 2021 exports compared to 2020 : - 15%

BUTTER exports

2020

2021

Trade with UK excuded for monthly data (not complete)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1 000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

661707

597

794826

946831

1000 TonnesSMP exports

0

20

40

60

80

100


1000 tonnes

Jan- Apr 2021 exports compared to 2020 : + 1%

SMP exports

2020

2021


EU Exports (2/2)

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

1 152 1 1591 231 1 275 1 279

1 3481 400

1000 Tonnes

CHEESE exports

0

100

200

300

400

500

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

375 386 381404

346315

345

1000 TonnesWMP exports

0

20

40

60

80

100


1000 tonnes

Jan- Apr 2021 exports compared to 2020 : + 7%

CHEESE exports

2020

2021


0

10

20

30

40

50


1000 tonnes

Jan- Apr 2021 exports compared to 2020 : - 2%

WMP exports

2020

2021


Main importers

Main Dairy Importers (Butter + Butteroil 1/2)

0

25

50

75

100

125

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

8071

8292

113

86

116

1000 Tonnes

China

0

5

10

15

20

25


1000 tonnes

Jan-Apr 2021 compared to 2020 : + 12%

2020

2016

2021

0

25

50

75

100

125

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

139

96 105 9887

116 125

1000 Tonnes

Russia

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18


1000 tonnes

Jan-Apr 2021 compared to 2020 : - 1%

2020

2021

2020

Main Dairy Importers (Butter + Butteroil 2/2)

Source: IHS Mark it/GTA - Eurostat(COMEXT)

0

25

50

75

100

125

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

2240 47 43

5767 68

1000 Tonnes

United States

0

25

50

75

100

125

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

69 73 77 84 79 74 75

1000 Tonnes

United Kingdom HMRC

0

2

4

6

8

10


1000 tonnes Jan-Apr 2021 compared to 2020 : - 12%

2020

2021


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16


1000 tonnes

Jan-Mar 2021 compared to 2020 : - 45%

2020

20162019

Jan-Mar 2021 compared to 2020 : - 45%

2021

Main Dairy Importers (S.M.P. - 1/2)

Rem: for confidentiality reasons, trade data from Mexico are incomplete and therefore not presented here.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

253200 184

247280

344 336

1000 Tonnes

China

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


1000 tonnes

2020

2019

2021


0

50

100

150

200

250

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

146 145 159 147 160188 197

1000 Tonnes

Indonesia

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


1000 tonnes

Jan-Mar 2021 compared to 2020 : + 5%

2020

2017


2021

Main Dairy Importers (S.M.P. – 2/2)

0

50

100

150

200

250

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

138 147 135 121 129 126 117

1000 Tonnes

Malaysia

0

5

10

15

20

25

30


1000 tonnes

2020

2014


2016

2019

2021

0

5

10

15

20

25

1000 tonnes


2009

2010

0

50

100

150

200

250

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

95 101

185154 159 177 179

1000 Tonnes

Philippines

0

5

10

15

20

25

30


1000 tonnes


2020

2021

Main Dairy Importers (W.M.P. 1/2)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

671

347420 470 521

671 644

1000 Tonnes

China

0

50

100

150

200

250


1000 tonnes


20202021

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

42 46 47 50 60 59 58

1000 Tonnes

Thailand

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20


1000 tonnes


2020

2017


2019

2021

Main Dairy Importers (W.M.P. 2/2)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

3059

12673 68 61

89

1000 Tonnes

Brazil

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

81 75 86 87 104 9653

1000 Tonnes

Hong Kong

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20


1000 tonnes


2020

2021

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20


1000 tonnesJan-Apr 2021 compared to 2020 : - 50%

2020

2013 2016


2021

Main Dairy Importers (Cheese – 1/2)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

469 494 490 494 523 536 496

1000 Tonnes

United Kingdom HMRC

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


1000 tonnes

Jan-Mar 2021 compared to 2020: - 22%

2020

2016 2017

2021

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

321

209 223 226 249278

311

1000 Tonnes

Russia

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45


1000 tonnes

Jan-Apr 2021 compared to 2020: + 18%

2020

2021

Main Dairy Importers (Cheese – 2/2)

Source: IHS Mark it/GTA - Eurostat(COMEXT)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

165200 205 183 176 180 165

1000 Tonnes

United States

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

232 249 258 273 286 303 292

1000 Tonnes

Japan

0

5

10

15

20

25


1000 tonnes


2020

2021

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40


1000 tonnes


20202021

7 000

7 200

7 400

7 600

7 800

8 000

8 200

8 400

8 600

8 800

9 000

9 200Jan

Fe

b

Ma

r

Apr

Ma

y

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

in 1

000 t

on

ne

s

U.S. milk production

2018

2019

2020

2021

Source:USDA

Jan-Apr 2021 compared to 2020 : + 1.6%

Source: Dairy Australia

500

600

700

800

900

1 000

1 100

1 200Ju

l

Au

g

Sep

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Ju

n

in 1

000 t

on

ne

s

Jul-Mar 2020/21 compared to 2019/20 : + 0.9%

Australian milk production

2017/18

2018/19

2019/20

2020/21

Source: DCANZ - Fonterra

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Sep

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

in 1

000 t

on

ne

s

.

Jun-Apr 2020/21 compared to 2019/20 : + 2.4%

NZ milk production

2017/18

2018/19

2019/20

2020/21

GDT Auction results

Average price (USD/MT, FAS)

Event 2851 June 2021

-0.9%

$4 128

Event 2851 June 2021

-0.9%

$4 128

Anhydrous Milk Fat

-0.8%$ 5 654

Butter

-5.4%$ 4 690

Butter MilkPowder

-7.5%$ 3 810

Cheddar

+0.5%$ 4 324

Lactose

-1.6%$ 1 236

Skim MilkPowder

-0.5%$ 3 415

Whole MilkPowder

-0.5%$ 4 062

Thank you

milk market situation...milk market situation brussels, 17 june 2021 the united kingdom is no longer...

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