milk market situation - lv.vlaanderen.be · eu quotations of butter and smp (eu average based on ms...

Milk Market Situation

Brussels, 21 March 2019

21 March 2019

!!! Data from some Member States are confidential and are NOT included in this table !!!

+0.9%+0.2%

-1.5%

-5.1%

-1.2%

-3.7%-2.7%

+0.5%+0.3%

- 8%

- 6%

- 4%

- 2%

+ 0%

+ 2%

+ 4%

EU Productions (Jan-Dec 2018 compared to Jan-Dec 2017)

21 March 2019

-5.0% to -2.8%

-2.8% to -1.5%

-1.5% to -0.7%

-0.7% to 0.0%

0.0% to +1.0%

+1.0% to +2.5%

+2.5% to +4.4%

+4.4% to +10.0%

n/a+4.1

+9.5

+2.4

+2.5

+1.7

+2.9

+4.4

+1.0+1.4

-0.2

+0.9

+5.6

-4.0

-2.6

+5.5

+0.3

-1.5

-2.9

-0.5

+2.6

+0.7

+7.9

-1.4

-0.9

-0.5

-2.0

+0.2

Source : MS' Communications to Eurostat, FEGA, AGEA, Reg.479/2010.1(a)1

-4.9

DE, EL, HR, CY and SE figures based on MS notifications to DG AGRI - estimation for IT

21 March 2019

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

15000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

10

00

To

nn

es

EU - Cows' milk collected

2015

2016

2017

2018

Jan-Dec 2018/17 : +0.9%

Last update : Jan-DecSource : Estat - Newcronos

Jan-Dec 2018/17 : + 0.9%

21 March 2019

35.0

33.0

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

50

Jan 0

1

Jan 0

2

Jan 0

3

Jan 0

4

Jan 0

5

Jan 0

6

Jan 0

7

Jan 0

8

Jan 0

9

Jan 1

0

Jan 1

1

Jan 1

2

Jan 1

3

Jan 1

4

Jan 1

5

Jan 1

6

Jan 1

7

Jan 1

8

Jan 1

9

EUR/100 kgEU Raw Milk Prices Evolution (up to January 2019)

Weighted EU Average (real fat content)

EU Milk Equiv. Price (based on SMP and Butter prices)

Source : MS’ communications under Reg. (EU) No 2017/1185 Article 12(a) - Annex II.4(a)

* : provisional figures

58.1

48.2

39.5

38.9

38.3

38.3

36.3

36.0

36.0

35.5

35.0

35.0

34.7

34.3

34.2

34.0

33.9

33.3

32.7

32.6

32.5

32.0

31.7

31.5

31.1

31.1

30.9

30.6

30.2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

CY MT IT GR FI AT NL FR SE DE EU LU CZ IE DK HR BE SK UK SI PL ES EE RO PT HU BG LT LV

in E

UR

/1

00

kg

E U M I L K P R I C E S

Milk price 2018

Milk price 2019

Source : Member States (Regulation (EU) No 2017/1185 Article 12(a) - Annex II.4(a))

( Jan 2019 vs Jan 2018 )

Source: MS’ communications under Reg. 479//2010

NB: The above national price averages are of mixed nature, some relate to standardised milk,

others to milk with real fat and protein content, pending harmonisation under reg. 479/2010

21 March 2019

Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010

100

150

200

250

300

350Ja

n

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00 k

g

Weekly EU SMP Prices

2016 2017 2018 2019 IP 2009

Latest price : 191 EUR/100kg

Evolution compared to same period last year : +44%

21 March 2019

199198 197 194

191

182

178

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

BE DE NL CZ EU Avg. SK PL

in E

UR/1

00 kg

EU S.M.P. Prices (up to 10.03.2019)

I.P. : 169.8

Source: Regulation (EU) No 2017/1185 Article 11 - Annex I.7

21 March 2019

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700Ja

n

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00 k

g

Weekly EU BUTTER Prices

2016 2017 2018 2019 IP 2009

Evolution compared to same period last year : -12%


21 March 2019


575

493

472

425413 412 407

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

SK CZ EE EU Avg. BE PL NL

EU

R/1

00 k

g

EU BUTTER Prices (up to 10.03.2019)

Source : Regulation (EU) No 2017/1185 Article 11 - Annex I.7

I.P. = 221.75

21 March 2019

425

191

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19

in E

UR/100 k

g

.

EU Quotations of Butter and SMP(EU average based on MS communication and weighted by production)

Butter Intervention buying in price SMP Intervention buying in price

BUTTER prices SMP prices

Source: MS’ communications under reg. 562/2005 and 479/2010

21 March 2019

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

Jan 0

3

Jan 0

4

Jan 0

5

Jan 0

6

Jan 0

7

Jan 0

8

Jan 0

9

Jan 1

0

Jan 1

1

Jan 1

2

Jan 1

3

Jan 1

4

Jan 1

5

Jan 1

6

Jan 1

7

Jan 1

8

Jan 1

9

in E

UR/1

00 k

g

EU Dairy Quotations

(EU Average Prices based on MS communication and weighted by production)

BUTTER

SMP

WMP

CHEDDAR

Source: Regulation (EU) No 2017/1185 Article 11 - Annex I.7

21 March 2019


150

200

250

300

350

400

450Ja

n

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00 k

g

Weekly EU WMP Prices

2016 2017 2018 2019



21 March 2019


21 March 2019

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00 k

g

Weekly EU CHEDDAR Prices

2016 2017 2018 2019



150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/100 k

g

Weekly EU EDAM Prices

2016 2017 2018 2019




21 March 2019

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00 k

g

Weekly EU WheyPowder Prices

2016 2017 2018 2019



21 March 2019

- 100 000

- 75 000

- 50 000

- 25 000

0

25 000

50 000

75 000

100 000

125 000

150 000

175 000

200 000

225 000

250 000

275 000

300 000

325 000

350 000

375 000

400 000

Qu

anti

ty in

to

nne

s

Public SMP Intervention scheme (2017-2018)Buying-in quantity & stocks

Quantities In (2019) Quantities Out (2019) Quantity offered (2019)

Stocks level end of month (2019) Stocks level end of month (2018)

103 977

21 March 2019

1.1295

EUR/USD

21 March 2019

2 638

2 1512 176

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000O

ct 1

1

Jan 1

2

Apr

12

Jul 12

Oct 1

2

Jan 1

3

Apr

13

Jul 13

Oct 1

3

Jan 1

4

Apr

14

Jul 14

Oct 1

4

Jan 1

5

Apr

15

Jul 15

Oct 1

5

Jan 1

6

Apr

16

Jul 16

Oct 1

6

Jan 1

7

Apr

17

Jul 17

Oct 1

7

Jan 1

8

Apr

18

Jul 18

Oct 1

8

Jan 1

9

Prices in U

SD

/tonne

EU/US/Oceania Quotations of SMP

Avg Oceania SMP quotation

Avg EU SMP internal Price

Avg US SMP quotation

Source: MS’ communications under Reg. 2017/1185 & USDA market news

21 March 2019

3 025

3 273

3 560

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000O

ct 1

1

Jan 1

2

Apr

12

Jul 12

Oct 1

2

Jan 1

3

Apr

13

Jul 13

Oct 1

3

Jan 1

4

Apr

14

Jul 14

Oct 1

4

Jan 1

5

Apr

15

Jul 15

Oct 1

5

Jan 1

6

Apr

16

Jul 16

Oct 1

6

Jan 1

7

Apr

17

Jul 17

Oct 1

7

Jan 1

8

Apr

18

Jul 18

Oct 1

8

Jan 1

9

Prices in U

SD

/tonne

EU/US/Oceania Quotations of WMP

Avg Oceania WMP quotation

Avg EU WMP internal Price

Avg US WMP quotation


21 March 2019

4 425

4 9885 002

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000

6 500

7 000

7 500

8 000

8 500

Oct 1

1

Jan 1

2

Apr

12

Jul 12

Oct 1

2

Jan 1

3

Apr

13

Jul 13

Oct 1

3

Jan 1

4

Apr

14

Jul 14

Oct 1

4

Jan 1

5

Apr

15

Jul 15

Oct 1

5

Jan 1

6

Apr

16

Jul 16

Oct 1

6

Jan 1

7

Apr

17

Jul 17

Oct 1

7

Jan 1

8

Apr

18

Jul 18

Oct 1

8

Jan 1

9

Prices in U

SD

/tonne

EU/US/Oceania Quotations of Butter

Avg Oceania Butter quotation

Avg EU Butter internal Price

Avg US Butter quotation


21 March 2019

3 700

3 5443 617

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000

Oct 1

1

Jan 1

2

Apr

12

Jul 12

Oct 1

2

Jan 1

3

Apr

13

Jul 13

Oct 1

3

Jan 1

4

Apr

14

Jul 14

Oct 1

4

Jan 1

5

Apr

15

Jul 15

Oct 1

5

Jan 1

6

Apr

16

Jul 16

Oct 1

6

Jan 1

7

Apr

17

Jul 17

Oct 1

7

Jan 1

8

Apr

18

Jul 18

Oct 1

8

Jan 1

9

Prices in U

SD

/tonne

EU/US/Oceania Quotations of Cheddar

Avg OceaniaCheddar quotation

Avg EU Cheddar internal Price

Avg US Cheddar quotation


21 March 2019

35

50

17

13

46

3n/a

2n/a

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2018 2019

10

00

to

nn

es

Butter & ButteroilExports

New Zealand (up to Jan)

EU-28 (up to Jan)

Belarus (up to Jan)

United States (no data 2019)

Ukraine (no data 2019)

63

68

28 2827

n/a

15

19

11 12

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2018 2019

10

00

to

nn

es

Cheese Exports

EU-28 (up to Jan)



Belarus (up to Jan)

Australia (up to Jan)

21 March 2019

57

87

50

n/a

4448

10

19

811

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2018 2019

1000

ton

nes

S.M.P. Exports

EU-28 (up to Jan)




Belarus (up to Jan)

150

177

31 27

8 8712

5 2

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2018 2019

1000

ton

nes

W.M.P. Exports


EU-28 (up to Jan)

Argentina (up to Jan)

Uruguay (up to Jan)


21 March 2019

EU-28 Exports (1/2)

Source : Eurostat (COMEXT)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

102 102

120

135

162

137128

1000 Tonnes

BUTTER exports

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14


1000 tonnes

Jan 2019 exports compared to 2018 : - 15%

BUTTER exports

20182019

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

520

407

648695

579

780822

1000 TonnesSMP exports

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


1000 tonnes

Jan 2019 exports compared to 2018 : + 53%

SMP exports

20182019

21 March 2019

EU-28 Exports (2/2)

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

800

820

840

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

768

786

721 719

799

829 832

1000 Tonnes

CHEESE exports

300

400

500

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

386374

390401

382393

334

1000 TonnesWMP exports

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90


1000 tonnes

Jan 2019 exports compared to 2018 : + 8%

CHEESE exports

2018

2019

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


1000 tonnes

Jan 2019 exports compared to 2018 : - 10%

WMP exports

2018

2019

21 March 2019

22 22

17

n/a

14 1413

n/a

11 11

0

5

10

15

20

25

2 018 2 019

10

00

to

nn

es

Cheese Imports

Japan (up to Jan)

Russia (no data 2019)

China (up to Jan)


South Korea (up to Jan)

17

14

6

n/a

3.83.43.7

0.0

3.3

0.00

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2 018 2 019

1000

ton

nes

Butter & ButteroilImports

China (up to Jan)

Russia (no data 2019)


Egypt (no data 2019)


21 March 2019

139

183

27

n/a

9 98 56n/a

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2 018 2 019

1000

ton

nes

W.M.P.Imports

China (up to Jan)

Algeria (no data 2019)

Hong Kong (up to Jan)

Sri Lanka (up to Jan)

Malaysia (no data 2019)

46

58

23

n/a

21

n/a

11

n/a

10

n/a0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2 018 2 019

1000

ton

nes

S.M.P. Imports

China (up to Jan)

Mexico (no data 2019)

Algeria (no data 2019)

Indonesia (no data 2019)

Egypt (no data 2019)

21 March 2019

Main Dairy Importers (Butter + Butteroil 1/2)

0

25

50

75

100

125

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

48 52

80 7182

92113

1000 Tonnes

China

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18


1000 tonnes

Jan 2019 compared to 2018 : - 15%

2018

2016

2019

0

25

50

75

100

125

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

68

136 139

96 105 9886

1000 Tonnes

Russia

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18


1000 tonnes #VALUE!

2018

2019

21 March 2019

Main Dairy Importers (Butter + Butteroil 2/2)

0

25

50

75

100

125

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

21 21 23 21 29 34 40

1000 Tonnes

Australia

0

25

50

75

100

125

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

18 14 2240 47 44

57

1000 Tonnes

United States

0

2

4

6

8

10

12


1000 tonnes Jan 2019 compared to 2018 : - 9%

20182019

Jan 2019 compared to 2018 : - 9%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12


1000 tonnes

2018

20162019

21 March 2019

Main Dairy Importers (S.M.P. - 1/2)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

236198 203

259 286331

360

1000 Tonnes

Mexico

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50


1000 tonnes#VALUE!

2018

2019

0

50

100

150

200

250

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

168

235 253

200 184

247 280

1000 Tonnes

China

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60


1000 tonnes

Jan 2019 compared to 2018 : + 25%

2018

2017

Jan 2019 compared to 2018 : + 25%2019

21 March 2019

Main Dairy Importers (S.M.P. – 2/2)

0

50

100

150

200

250

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

136155 146 145 159 147 160

1000 Tonnes

Indonesia

0

5

10

15

20

25


1000 tonnes

2018

2014

2016

2019

0

5

10

15

20

25

1000 tonnes

2009

2010

0

50

100

150

200

250

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

106 113 95 101

185154 159

1000 Tonnes

Philippines

0

5

10

15

20

25


1000 tonnes

2018

2019

21 March 2019

Main Dairy Importers (W.M.P. 1/2)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

406

619671

347420 470 521

1000 Tonnes

China

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200


1000 tonnes

Jan 2019 compared to 2018 : + 31%

2018

2019

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

188142

204 224 224262

150

1000 Tonnes

Algeria

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


1000 tonnes

2018

2017 2019

21 March 2019

Main Dairy Importers (W.M.P. 2/2)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

71 59 60 72 85 85 87

1000 Tonnes

Sri Lanka

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

64 74 81 75 86 87 104

1000 Tonnes

Hong Kong

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20


1000 tonnes

Jan 2019 compared to 2018 : - 35%

2018

2019

0

5

10

15

20


1000 tonnesJan 2019 compared to 2018 : - 6%

2018

2013 2016

Jan 2019 compared to 2018 : - 6%

2019

21 March 2019

Main Dairy Importers (Cheese – 1/2)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

235 236 232 249 258 273 286

1000 Tonnes

Japan

0

5

10

15

20

25

30


1000 tonnes

Jan 2019 compared to 2018: + 1%

2018

2016 2017

2019

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

316440

321

209 223 226267

1000 Tonnes

Russia

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45


1000 tonnes

2018

2019

21 March 2019

Main Dairy Importers (Cheese – 2/2)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

78 85 97 112 110 125 124

1000 Tonnes

South Korea

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

154 148 165200 205 183 176

1000 Tonnes

United States

0

5

10

15

20

25


1000 tonnes

Jan 2019 compared to 2018: - 4%

2018

2019

0

5

10

15

20

25


1000 tonnes

2018

2019

21 March 2019

7 000

7 200

7 400

7 600

7 800

8 000

8 200

8 400

8 600

8 800Jan

Fe

b

Ma

r

Apr

Ma

y

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

in 1

000 t

on

ne

s

U.S. milk production

2015

2016

2017

2018

Source:USDA

Jan-Dec 2018 vs 2017 : + 0.9% (real monthly production)

21 March 2019

Source: Dairy Australia

500

600

700

800

900

1 000

1 100

1 200

Ju

l

Au

g

Sep

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Ju

n

in 1

000 t

on

ne

s

Jul-Dec 2018/19 compared to 2017/18 : - 5.1%

Australian milk production

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

2018/19

21 March 2019

Source: DCANZ - Fonterra

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Sep

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

in 1

000 t

on

ne

s

.

Jun-Dec 2018/19 compared to 2017/18 : + 4.4%

NZ milk production

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

2018/19

21 March 2019

GDT Auction results

Average price (USD/MT, FAS)

Event 2315 March 2019

+3.3%

$3 309

Event 2315 March 2019

+3.3%

$3 309

Butter

+3.7%$ 4 657

Butter MilkPowder

+11.0$ 3 480

Cheddar

+6.0%$ 3 888

Anhydrous Milk Fat

+3.9%$ 5 837

Butter

+3.7%$ 4 657

Butter MilkPowder

+11.0$ 3 480

Cheddar

+6.0%$ 3 888

Lactose

+0.6%$ 1 009

Rennet Casein

-0.1%$ 5 649

Skim MilkPowder

-4.3%$ 2 462

Lactose

+0.6%$ 1 009

Rennet Casein

-0.1%$ 5 649

Skim MilkPowder

-4.3%$ 2 462

Whole MilkPowder

+6.0%$ 3 186

milk market situation - lv.vlaanderen.be · eu quotations of butter and smp (eu average based on ms...

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