millennium development goals and the pv industry: is the motivation self-interest or selfless? anil...
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Millennium Development Goals Millennium Development Goals and the PV Industry: Is the and the PV Industry: Is the Motivation Self-Interest or Motivation Self-Interest or Selfless? Selfless?
Anil CabraalLead Energy Specialist
The World Bank
Plenary Session: Global Aspects of PV Electricity21st European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and ExhibitionSeptember 8, 2006
Outline
World Bank Group & Renewable Energy MDGs & Energy Access Challenge Potential for Off-grid PV Limitations of Current Approaches Recommendations Conclusions
The World Bank Group
MIGA ICSID
InternationalFinance
Corporation (IFC)
InternationalDevelopmentAssociation
(IDA)
Two of the development objectives: Poverty Reduction and Environmental Improvement
World Bank Group RE and EE Commitments
0
100
200
300
400
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700
800
900
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Fiscal Year
Mill
ions
of D
olla
rs
0
100
200
300
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700
800
900
Mill
ions
of D
olla
rs
WBG New RE & EE WBG Hydro>10MW Bonn Commitment for New RE & EE
WBG Photovoltaic Projects
Serving >1,43 million HH + Facilities ~7.5 million persons ~64 MWp 31 Countries Total Value: ~$776 million
Includes projects completed, under implementation and preparation
Argentina 30,000Argentina 30,000Bolivia 60,000Bolivia 60,000Ecuador 2,200Ecuador 2,200
HondurasHondurasDominican Rep.Dominican Rep.
Mexico 1,000Mexico 1,000Mexico 36,000Mexico 36,000
Nicaragua 6,000Nicaragua 6,000
Bangladesh 198,000Bangladesh 198,000Cambodia 10,000Cambodia 10,000
China 400,000China 400,000India 45,000+India 45,000+
Indonesia 8,500Indonesia 8,500Laos 4,000Laos 4,000
Mongolia 50,000Mongolia 50,000Pacific Islands 21,000Pacific Islands 21,000Philippines 135,000Philippines 135,000
PNG 2,500PNG 2,500Sri Lanka 105,000Sri Lanka 105,000
VietnamVietnam
Burkina Faso 8,000Burkina Faso 8,000Cape Verde 4,500Cape Verde 4,500
Ethiopia 6,300Ethiopia 6,300KenyaKenya
Madagascar 15,000Madagascar 15,000Mali 10,000Mali 10,000
MoroccoMoroccoMozambique 9,800Mozambique 9,800
Senegal 10,000Senegal 10,000Swaziland 2,000Swaziland 2,000Uganda 90,000Uganda 90,000
Tanzania 140,000Tanzania 140,000
The Electricity Access Challenge
Unelectrified Population Forecasts
-200400600800
1,0001,2001,4001,6001,800
2002 2015 IEA ReferenceScenario
2015 MDGAchievement Case
Mill
ions
of P
erso
ns
Africa South Asia East Asia & China Latin America Middle East
560 million additional persons must receive electricity services to meet MDG goals
Potential for Off-Grid PV
Four out of Five people without access to electricity live in dispersed rural communities.Off-grid PV can:– Be less costly– Be deployed rapidly– Build on existing public and private institutional
capacity
Numerous opportunities for PV industry in developing world – For example…
Africa Access PlanChina Township & Village Electrification ProgramsIndia Rajiv Gandhi Rural Electrification ProgramPhilippines Missionary Electrification Development Plan
Estimated Off-grid Installations: Business-as-Usual and Accelerated Market Growth Scenarios
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60
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16020
05
2006
2007
2008
2009
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2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Cum
ulat
ive
Inst
alla
tions
(Mill
ions
)
Business-as-Usual
Required
2030 "Universal Access" Target: 9%/ yr growth (2016- to 2030) -> 150 million off-grid households
2015 MDG Target: 32%/yr growth -> 17 million off-grid households
Limitations of Current Approaches
High cost of non-competitive awardsLimited leverage of donor resourcesGive away systems - No ownershipParachute-in technology – inadequate attention to long term sustainabilityInadequate community consultationPilot projects too small to be sustainable
Recommendations (1)
Convince decision-makers of value of PV for development
Build trust - Improve dialogue among key players, government, community, private sector
Build partnerships – local firms and financial institutions
Move from a project-oriented to market/ programmatic approach
Recommendations (2)
Leverage funding
Adhere to quality standards for both products and services
Avoid technology dumping and ensure long term financial sustainability of investments
Arrange for long term operation
Take advantage of local capacities
Conclusions
Many opportunities for PV industry in developing world to contribute to MDGs and increase business and profitably
Will require thinking beyond boundaries and timeframes of an individual project.
Thank You!Thank You!
http://www.worldbank.org/energy http://www.worldbank.org/re
http://www.worldbank.org/retoolkit