Minnesota’s Education and Employment RealityMaking the Most of Our Labor

Luke GreinerRegional Labor Market Analyst

Luke.greiner@state.mn.us

Department of Employment and Economic Development

Labor Market Information Officehttp://mn.gov/deed/data/

Labor Market Information Office

• Each state produces employment and economic statistics in cooperation with U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics

• LMI includes employment statistics, unemployment rates, wages and salaries, job projections and more

• LMI is the foundation for informed, market-responsive planning

MN Job Growth Continues As Recovery Hits 8 Years(Over-the-year total non-farm employment growth rates)

A closer look at Minnesota

Labor Force Growth In Minnesota has Slowed Considerably

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Annual Average Gain of <12,000

More Recently

Annual Average Gain of ~40,000

Additional Workers

And is Projected to Slow Much Further

4,1302,094

6,231

11,317

15,449 15,274

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035 2035-2040 2040-2045

Ave

rage

An

nu

al C

han

ge

Labor Force 16-64

Labor Force 65+

Total Labor Force

Cumulative increase of 62,275 workers between now and 2030; 87,900 of them 65 or

older

It May Even Shrink For Awhile If LFPRs Don’t Increase

Cumulative increase of 9,500 workers between now and 2030;

67,600 of them 65 or older

-272 -2,002

4,172

11,323

14,522

11,717

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035 2035-2040 2040-2045

Ave

rage

An

nu

al C

han

ge

Labor Force 16-64

Labor Force 65+

Total Labor Force

64,939

41,397

97,997 97,580 106,615

213,643

110,241

112,606

1.62.1

2.9

7.4

5.2

3.5

2.62.0

1.51.1 1.2

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

Q22006

Q22007

Q22008

Q22009

Q22010

Q22011

Q22012

Q22013

Q22014

Q22015

Q22016

Job

seekers Per Vacan

cyN

um

ber

of

Un

emp

loye

d &

Vac

anci

es

Source: DEED Job Vacancy Survey, LAUS program

Minnesota Vacancies Minnesota Unemployed Jobseekers per Vacancy

These data underpin the importance of effective labor allocation

• Students AND employers can’t afford poor alignments and outcomes.

This is the adventure I referenced on the previous slide by the way.

• What occupation do you think is the most demanded across MN?

Retail salesperson, followed by RN’s, fast food workers, PCA’s, cashiers, and truck drivers

• What share of full-time openings require a bachelors degree?

15.5%, 2016 Avg. For all openings:–43% are PT–33% require some type of post-secondary education–41% require at least 1- year of experience–The median wage offer was $13.97

Where Will Jobs of the Future Be?

• Most jobs will

have more

replacement

openings than

new jobs

created

• Some jobs

are expected

to decline,

but may still

have openings

How about “New Jobs”?

Occupation Projected Employment 2024 Percent Change 2014 - 2024 Numeric Change 2014 - 2024

Total, All Occupations 3,137,000 4.3% 130,000

Personal Care and Service 179,613 13.8% 21,822

Healthcare Practitioners 183,754 12.3% 20,142

Healthcare Support 107,588 17.6% 16,114

Food Preparation and Serving 243,330 5.0% 11,788

Sales 299,882 3.7% 10,788

Business and Financial 180,041 5.6% 9,586

Construction and Extraction 120,583 7.7% 8,722

Computer and Math 101,315 8.3% 7,812

Community and Social Service 65,412 9.1% 5,466

Management 233,599 2.2% 5,117

Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance 103,887 4.7% 4,710

Installation, Maintenance, and Repair 107,472 4.4% 4,559

Transportation and Material Moving 180,617 2.3% 4,167

Education, Training, and Library 168,231 2.4% 4,014

Life, Physical, and Social Science 27,305 5.2% 1,351

Protective Service 48,999 2.5% 1,212

Legal 22,093 4.6% 990

Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media 55,098 1.4% 770

Architecture and Engineering 52,634 0.6% 345

Farming, Fishing, and Forestry 15,175 -5.2% -848

Office and Administrative 421,343 -0.9% -4,040

Production 219,029 -2.0% -4,587

So what do teenagers think about their future?

Consequence for Required Educational Attainment

Educational Requirement Level

Number Requiredby 2014

Employment2014 Share

NumberRequired by 2024

Employment2024 Share

Employment Growth by

Educational Requirement

High School or Less 1,948,401 65.7% 2,015,478 65.1% 3.4%

Vocational Cert. 145,951 4.9% 158,160 5.1% 8.4%

Associate’s 129,762 4.4% 141,142 4.6% 8.8%

Bachelor's 533,637 18.0% 558,750 18.1% 4.7%

Graduate 95,904 3.2% 103,801 3.4% 8.2%

Not Classified 110,903 3.7% 116,325 3.8% 4.9%

Total 2,964,558 3,093,656 4.4%

Is Our Workforce ‘Educated’ Enough?

Educational level

In labor force(2015; 16-64

years old)

2024 Job Requirements

Surplus/Shortage(-)

Not in labor force

(2015; 16-64 years old)

HS or less 851,393 2,015,478 -1,164,085 343,016

Vocational 670,567 158,160 512,407 145,428

Associate’s 346,716 141,142 205,574 49,191

Bachelor's 701,514 558,750 142,764 87,656

Graduate 326,489 103,801 222,688 33,920

Total 2,896,679 3,093,656 -196,977 659,211

Some Poor Employment Outcomes Suggest Surplus of Graduates

Top 7 industries of Employment 3 Years After Graduation - Graduates of 20010-2013 School Years

Award Level

IndustryMedian Wage

Pct Employed In Industry

Award Level

IndustryMedian Wage

Pct Employed In Industry

Vocational Certificate (based on

26,838 graduates)

Health Care $16.63 20.92%

Bachelor's (based on

77,989 graduates)

Health Care $22.31 15.97%

Other Services $12.79 11.66% Professional and Technical Services $22.36 9.42%

Manufacturing $18.02 10.44% Elementary and Secondary Schools $22.27 8.78%

Retail Trade $12.02 10.07% Retail Trade $13.81 7.35%

Construction $21.20 8.34% Finance and Insurance $21.10 7.27%

Bars and Restaurants $12.01 5.16% Manufacturing $23.92 6.40%

Wholesale Trade $16.94 3.81% Management of Companies $25.11 4.88%

Associate’s (based on

52,317 graduates)

Health Care $20.78 31.35%

Graduate (based on

35,848 graduates)

Elementary and Secondary Schools $36.95 25.81%

Retail Trade $11.44 10.16% Health Care $33.81 16.23%

Manufacturing $18.24 6.95%Education exc. Elem. and Second. Schools

$26.07 9.70%

Bars and Restaurants $12.65 6.01% Professional and Technical Services $33.63 8.82%

Prof. and Technical Services $16.32 5.48% Management of Companies $44.68 5.55%

Public Administration $18.92 4.04% Public Administration $26.16 5.52%

Social Assistance $12.54 3.70% Manufacturing $43.18 5.51%

Not Destitute, No Degree

• Transportation Inspectors, $98,082• Power Distributors and Dispatchers, $87,992• Elevator Installers and Repairers, $85,121• Electrical Power-line installers, $76,421• Securities, Commodities and financial Service Sales

Agents, $74,830 • Hoist and Winch Operators, $74,774• Loan Officers, $71,381• Supervisor of Retail Sales Worker, $70,212• Construction Trade Supervisor, $69,995

Sizing up the options

COLLEGE

University (4 years or more)

Technical College

(6 months-2 years)

Graduate High School Yay!

Start Making Money NowStart Making Money Later

Job, Apprenticeship,

or Military

Job

• http://mn.gov/deed/newscenter/publications/trends/september-2016/what-to-know.jsp

Check Out Graduate Employment Outcomes

mn.gov/deed/geo

What does this info tell us?

• If wage and employment rates are the outcome of interaction between supply and demand, they tell us a great deal about which fields of study are in demand and which are not

• Providing these data to young people selecting a major, and to incumbent workers looking to change careers, would allow them to better self-select into areas with better opportunities

• Data for all fields of study are on our website at: http://mn.gov/deed/geo

Curious What's happening in Your District?

Sleds.mn.gov

THANK YOU!Local Look Regional Blog Monthly blog covering regional economic trends Workforce insights. Occupations In Demand, Unemployment Rates

Minnesota Economic TRENDS Quarterly magazine on economic topics Subscriptions available free of charge or on-line

Minnesota Employment REVIEW Monthly magazine on economic data and regional trends Includes Minnesota business development Available exclusively on-line

http://mn.gov/deed/review

http://mn.gov/deed/trends

http://mn.gov/deed/data/locallook/

Let me know how I can help!

Luke Greiner

Regional Labor Market Analyst

Central and Southwest Minnesota

Labor Market Information Office

Phone: (320) 308-5378

Luke.greiner@state.mn.us