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Missouri Climate Trends
Pat Guinan Extension\State Climatologist
University of MissouriUniversity of Missouri
Our Missouri Waters‐Lower Grand Watershed Healthy Watershed Planning Meeting #2 Thursday, January 21, 2016, FSRC
2015 is warmest year on record…
Global Temperature Anomalies (1895‐2015) 10 yr running mean( ) 10 yr. running mean
2015 was 1st warmest
mal (°F)
from
Norm
Dep
arture f
1977
D
Using long‐term average: 1901‐2000
Warm YearCool Year
Source: NOAA/MCC
Contiguous U.S. Temperature Anomalies (1895‐2015)
10 yr running mean 2015 = 2nd warmest( )10 yr. running mean
2012
2015 = 2 warmest
mal (°F) 1934
201520061998
from
Norm
Dep
arture f
D
Using long‐term average: 1901‐2000Warm YearCool Yearg g g
Source: NOAA/MCC
Missouri Temperature Anomalies (1895‐2015)
10 yr running mean 2015 = 23rd warmest( )
10 yr. running mean
19211931 1938
20122015 = 23rd warmest
mal (°F)
1931 1938 1998
from
Norm
Dep
arture f
1912 19241978
1979D
1917 1979
Using long‐term average: 1901‐2000Warm YearCool Yearg g g
Source: NOAA/MCC
U.S. National Weather ServiceCooperative Weather Station Network
“The Backbone of the Nation’s Climate Records”
28 Pioneer Stations (still active)
NWS Cooperative Network in Missouri
Missouri Annual Average Temperature (1895‐2015*)(1895 2015 )
Long‐term average: 54.6°F 5 yr. running mean2012
*Sep‐Dec 2015 data are preliminary
re (°F) 1921
1931 1938 1998
2012
Tempe
ratur
l Average T
Ann
ual
19121917
19241978
1979Warm PeriodCool Period
Source: NOAA/Missouri Climate Center
Missouri Average Winter Temperature (Dec‐Jan‐Feb, 1895‐2015*)
*The winter of 2014 is defined as Dec 2014 and Jan, Feb 2015
Long‐term average: 32.1°F 5 yr. running mean
W P i d
ure (°F)
Warm PeriodCool Period
r Tempe
rat
age Winter
Avera
Source: NOAA/Missouri Climate Center
Missouri Average Spring Temperature (Mar‐Apr‐May, 1895‐2015)
Long‐term average: 54.2°F 5 yr. running mean
2012
ure (°F)
Warm PeriodCool Period
19771991
2007
Tempe
ratu 1987 2007
age Spring
Avera
1924 1931 1947
1960
19831984
1960
Source: NOAA/Missouri Climate Center
Missouri Average Summer Temperature (Jun‐Jul‐Aug, 1895‐2015)
Long‐term average: 75.6°F 5 yr. running mean
ture (°F)
1901
19341936
1954 1980
r Tempe
rat
ge Sum
me
Avera
19151927 1950 1992 2004
Warm PeriodCool Period
Source: NOAA/Missouri Climate Center
Missouri Average Summer Maximum Temperature ( l )
19011913
19341936
1980(Jun‐Jul‐Aug, 1895‐2015)
1915 1927 1950 1992 2004
Missouri Average Summer Mi i T
1934
1936 195420102011
Minimum Temperature (Jun‐Jul‐Aug, 1895‐2015)
1936 1954
1915 1927 1950 1967 1992
Source: NOAA/Missouri Climate Center
Missouri Average Autumn Temperature (Sep‐Oct‐Nov, 1895‐2015*)
Long‐term average: 56.4°F 5 yr. running mean
1931*Sep‐Nov 2015 data are preliminary
ature (°F)
18971963
19982015
mn Tempe
raage Autum
Avera
Warm PeriodCool Period
1932 1951
1976
19961993
Cool Period
Source: NOAA/Missouri Climate Center
Missouri Annual Average Precipitation (1895‐2015*)(1895 2015 )
Long‐term average: 40.86” 5 yr. running mean
*Sep‐Dec 2015 data are preliminary
on (in.) 1927
1973 1993 20082015
Precipitatio
al Average
Ann
ua
19011936
1953
1976 1980Wet PeriodDry Period
Source: NOAA/Missouri Climate Center
y e od
Missouri Average Winter Precipitation (Dec‐Jan‐Feb, 1895‐2015*)
*The winter of 2014 is defined as Dec 201 and Jan, Feb 2015
Long‐term average: 6.52” 5 yr. running mean
on (in.)
1915‐16
1936‐37
1949‐501948‐49 1984‐85
Precipitati
ge W
inter
Avera
Wet PeriodD P i d
1919‐201962‐63
1963‐64
1969‐701976‐77
Dry Period
Source: NOAA/Missouri Climate Center
Missouri Average Spring Precipitation (Mar‐Apr‐May, 1895‐2015)
Long‐term average: 12.00” 5 yr. running mean
1927 1973
on (in.) 1898
19271945
2008
Precipitatio
age Spring
PAvera 1971
Wet PeriodDry Period
19301932 1934 1936
Source: NOAA/Missouri Climate Center
Missouri Average Summer Precipitation (Jun‐Jul‐Aug, 1895‐2015*)
Long‐term average: 12.18” 5 yr. running mean*2015 data are preliminary
4th wettest
ation (in
.) 19151928
1951 1993 2015
4 wettest
er Precipita
age Summe
Avera
1901 1930
19361953
2012Wet PeriodDry Period
Source: NOAA/Missouri Climate Center
Missouri Average Autumn Precipitation (Sep‐Oct‐Nov, 1895‐2015*)
Long‐term average: 10.17” 5 yr. running mean*2015 data are preliminary
tion
(in.)
1926
1941
1984 19861993
n Precipita
age Autum
nAvera
Wet PeriodDry Period
18971904 1950
1953 1956
Source: NOAA/Missouri Climate Center
2012 Drought…many, many impacts
E. Cole E. Cole
E. Cole
P. Guinan
C. Starbuck
P. Guinan
P. Guinan
USACE
MO DNR
K. Graham @Hayleee
Missouri’s biggest climatic vulnerability is drought…
Missouri Monthly Precipitation Departure From Average* y p p gJan 2011 – Dec 2015
)
*Long‐term average: 1895‐2010
verage(in
.)
Jan 2011‐Dec 2015 departure from normal: +12.71”
32 out of 60 months below normal, 53%
ong‐term
av
ure from
loDep
artu
NOAA/Missouri Climate Center
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Missouri Monthly Precipitation Departure From Average*
Missouri’s biggest climatic vulnerability is drought…
The 1952‐56 period is the driest 5*Long‐term average: 1895‐2010)
y p p gJan 1952 – Dec 1956
The 1952‐56 period is the driest 5 consecutive years on record for Missouri.
Jan 1952‐Dec 1956 departure from normal: ‐ 48.09 inches!!
45 t f 60 th b l l 75%average(in.)
45 out of 60 months below normal, 75%
ong‐term
aure from
loDep
art
NOAA/Missouri Climate Center
1952 1953 1954 1955 1956
Missouri Monthly Precip. Departure from Average* J D 2015
2015 weather story…
Jan‐Dec 2015*Long‐term average: 1895‐2010 Sep‐Dec data are preliminary
Flood
in.)
FloodFlood
Average (i Drought Monitor, 11‐10‐15
rture from
Drought
Dep
a
Year = 2015
2015 weather story…
Missouri Monthly Temperature Departure from Average* J D 2015Jan‐Dec 2015
Sep‐Dec data are preliminary*Long‐term average: 1895‐2010
W t D d
°F)
Warmest Dec on record
Average (°
rture from 5th warmest
autumn on record
Dep
a
Year = 2015
Number of Daily Rainfall Events ≥ 3‐inches in Missouri 1895 20151895‐2015
10 yr. running mean1895‐1985 average: 15.6/year 1986‐2015 average: 20.8/year (33% increase)
nche
s
19932008
vents ≥ 3 in
19612009
2015
. of D
aily Ev
No.
Data Source: NOAA/Missouri Climate CenterYear
Impacts… flooding, late planting, fallow fields, nutrient loss, erosion, compaction, wet pastures, weeds, diseases, etc.
Linda Geist
Linda Geist
Dave Marner
Linda Geist
Linda Geist
Missouri Average Nov Precipitation (in.) Missouri Average Dec Precipitation (in.)
199219852015 1982Long‐term average: 2.89 in. Long‐term average: 2.34 in.
19921985 1982
18952015
2015
Missouri Average Nov‐Dec Precipitation* (in.)
19921982
Long‐term average: 5.23 in.
Major Flooding, Late Dec 2015
Accumulated Precipitation (in.) Dec 26‐29, 2015
MRCC
Missouri Climate Trends Updated through Dec 31, 2015
•Missouri’s most recent warm annual temperature trend began in 1998; 13 out of the past 18 years (72%) have been above normal; 2012 was the warmest year on record (since 1895).
•Seasonally, Missouri winters and springs have experienced the greatest warming trend; 17 out of the past 26 winters (65%) and 14 out of the past 18 springs (78%) have been above normalhave been above normal.
•The median last spring frost date in Missouri is occurring about 3‐4 days earlier over the past 30 years compared to the long‐term average.
•Recent temperature trend signals during the summer and autumn have been fairly weak. Up until the past few years (2010‐12), Missouri summers have not been unusually hot compared to others in the past, ie. 1901, 1934,1936, 1954 and 1980. The biggest degree ofcompared to others in the past, ie. 1901, 1934,1936, 1954 and 1980. The biggest degree of summer warming has been with minimum temperatures.
•The median first fall frost date in Missouri has varied little over the past 30 years d h lcompared to the long‐term average.
Missouri Climate Trends•Beginning in the early 1980’s and since 1895 an unprecedented wet period has
Updated through Dec 31, 2015
•Beginning in the early 1980 s, and since 1895, an unprecedented wet period has evolved in Missouri. Since 1981, 21 out of 35 years (60%) have had above normal precipitation.
•Over the past few decades all 4 seasons have witnessed more above normal•Over the past few decades, all 4 seasons have witnessed more above normal precipitation years in Missouri; most notably in winter where 20 out the past 34 winters (59%) recorded above normal precipitation. Snowfall trends have been declining.
•Over the past few decades, Missouri has witnessed an above normal trend in heavy (≥ 1”) and extreme (≥ 3”) daily precipitation events compared to the long‐term average.
•Recent historical trends for Missouri indicate an unprecedented multi‐decadal wet period beginning in the early 1980’s. Conversely, there have been multi‐decadal dry periods, i.e. 1950’s and 1960’s.
•Extended dry and wet patterns can change abruptly and there are numerous occasions, where Missouri transitioned from one extreme to another in a short period of time.
•The 2012 drought resulted in numerous impacts, affecting many sectors in Missouri. However, it was a young drought when compared to other historic droughts, i.e. 1952‐56. An important question we all need to consider is how prepared are we when the next 1950’s drought affects the Show Me State?
Missouri Mesonet
Real‐time
Linn County, FSRC
http://agebb.missouri.edu/weather/stations/
http://agebb.missouri.edu/weather/stations/
cli-MATE (MRCC Application Tools Environment)
mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/CLIMATE/
December 27, 2015
www.cocorahs.org
Dec 27, 2015,
www.cocorahs.org
September 10, 2014Linn County MOLinn County, MO
10.82
8 908.907.57
4.80
www.cocorahs.org
CoCoRaHS Impacts and Application:
The CoCoRaHS network has been operational in Missouri for 9 years and has been a valuable resource. Currently, more than 350 observers report daily inCurrently, more than 350 observers report daily in Missouri and all 114 counties in the state have at least one observer. Outcomes associated with having a viable, online real-time network of precipitation observing in
•Drought Assessment
Missouri include:
Drought Assessment
•Flood Assessment
•NWS and Regional Climate Centers
•River Forecast Centers- model application
www.climate.missouri.edu
http://agebb.missouri.edu/weather/wealinks.htmWeather & Climate Resources
River Information Resources for Missourihttp://agebb.missouri.edu/weather/river.htmRiver Information Resources for Missouri
Missouri Climate Centerhttp://climate missouri eduhttp://climate.missouri.edu