mmac presented by: covid-19 update john r. raymond sr., …
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1Presented on 8/10/2021
Learn more: covid19.mcw.edu
1
MMACCOVID-19 Update08.10.2021
PRESENTED BY:John R. Raymond Sr., MD
2Presented on 8/10/2021
Learn more: covid19.mcw.eduCOVID-19 UPDATE 08.10.2021
John R. Raymond Sr., MDPresident and CEOMedical College of WisconsinPR
ESEN
TED
BY:
LEA R N MO R E ATCovid19.MCW.com
Analytics by Ali NematiMCW Institute for Health and Equity
Ben Weston, MD, MPHAssociate Professor, Medical College of WisconsinDirector of Medical Services, Milwaukee County Office of Emergency Management
Mara Lord, MBASenior Vice President, University Engagement and Strategic PlanningMedical College of Wisconsin
3Presented on 8/10/2021
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W I S C O N S I N
1,087CONFIRMED NEW CASES WISCONSIN 7-DAY AVERAGE
TRENDING UNFAVORABLY
COVID-19 CASES AND INDICATORS – 08.10.2021
630,296TOTAL CASES IN WI
112,801TOTAL CASES IN
MILWAUKEE COUNTY
7,989PREVIOUS HIGHEST
DAILY POSITIVE CASES IN WISCONSIN11.18.2020
1,649PREVIOUS HIGHEST
DAILY POSITIVE CASES IN MILWAUKEE11.09.2020
LEA R N MO R E ATCovid19.MCW.com
259%14-DAY INCREASE OF
CASESSECOND WORST STATE BEHIND
NEW HAMPSHIRE
7.4%POSITIVITY BY PERSONWISCONSIN 7-DAY TREND IS TRENDING UNFAVORABLY
149%14-DAY INCREASE OF HOSPITALIZATIONSFOURTH WORST STATE
BEHIND VT, SC, MS
1.2R
WISCONSIN
21stIN VACCINATIONS
4Presented on 8/10/2021
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W I S C O N S I N
M I L W A U K E E
1DEATHS
WISCONSIN 7-DAY AVERAGE(1) TRENDING STABLE
COVID-19 DEATHS & HOSPITALIZATIONS – 08.10.2021
7,454TOTAL WI COVID-19
DEATHS AS OF 07.12.2021
2,277PEAK WI COVID-19 HOSPITAL CENSUS
11.17.2020
456PEAK WI ICU CENSUS
11.16.2020
104PREVIOUS HIGHEST
DAILY COVID-19 DEATHS WISCONSIN11.23.2020
LEA R N MO R E ATCovid19.MCW.com
1DEATHS
MILWAUKEE 7-DAY AVERAGE
TRENDING STABLE
481HOSPITALIZATIONS
WISCONSINTRENDING UNFAVORABLY
245HOSPITALIZATIONS
HERC-7TRENDING UNFAVORABLY
160ICU CENSUS
WISCONSINTRENDING UNFAVORABLY
91ICU CENSUS
HERC-7TRENDING UNFAVORABLY
5Presented on 8/10/2021
Learn more: covid19.mcw.eduWISCONSIN COUNTIES’ COVID-19 DISEASE BURDENS
https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/vaccine-data.htm#day
LEA R N MO R E ATCovid19.MCW.com
11.12.2020 – 11.25.2020 03.03.2021 – 03.16.2021 06.23.3021 – 07.06.2021 0721.3021 – 08.03.2021
WISCONSIN’S COVID-19 CASE BURDEN OVER LAST ELEVEN MONTHS
High : 71 CountiesVery High: Milwaukee
6Presented on 8/10/2021
Learn more: covid19.mcw.eduNEW COVID-19 VARIANT NOMENCLATURE LEA R N MO R E ATCovid19.MCW.com
New World Health Organization Nomenclature• Alpha: B1.1.7 UK variant spotted in September 2020.• Beta: B1.351 spotted in South Africa in May 2020.• Gamma: P.1 first spotted in Brazil in November 2020.• Delta: B1.617.2 spotted in India.• Epsilon*: B1.427/B1.429 California variants in March 2020.• Zeta: P.2 variant spotted in Brazil in April 2020.• Eta*: B1.525 found widely distributed in December 2020; UK, Nigeria.• Theta*: P.3 spotted in Philippines in January 2021.• Iota: B.1.526 spotted in USA/NY in November 2020.• Kappa*: B1.617.1 spotted in India.• Lambda: C.37 originally detected in Peru
CDC classifies variants by 3 levels
VARIANTS OF INTEREST
Specific markers predicted to impact biology
VARIANTS OF CONCERN
Evidence of increased transmission or virulence or escape from immunity
VARIANTS OF CONSEQUENCEClear evidence that
prevention or treatment measures are ineffectivehttps://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/variants-concern
7Presented on 8/10/2021
Learn more: covid19.mcw.eduDELTA COVID-19 VARIANT OF CONCERN LEA R N MO R E ATCovid19.MCW.com
DELTA VARIANT• Most transmissible strain thus far. Twice as infectious as alpha or
beta. Can be spread by asymptomatic individuals. • Can be spread by fully vaccinated individuals. Transmission reduced
by 50%, but still significant risk. Wear a mask around others.• 100-1,000x nasooropharyngeal viral loads than other strains.• R value much higher than other COVID-19 strains, between 4 and 8.• Primary symptoms are headache, sneezing, runny nose, and sore
throat – different from and more subtle than earlier variants.• Likelihood of hospitalization is increased. “Younger, sicker, quicker”.• Has partial escape from vaccine immunity. Must complete FULL
course of mRNA vaccines to achieve 90% protection.• > 90 % of US cases now.
CDC classifies variants by 3 levels
VARIANTS OF INTEREST
Specific markers predicted to impact biology
VARIANTS OF CONCERN
Evidence of increased transmission or virulence or escape from immunity
VARIANTS OF CONSEQUENCEClear evidence that
prevention or treatment measures are ineffective
8Presented on 8/10/2021
Learn more: covid19.mcw.eduNEWLY DOCUMENTED OUTDOOR SPREAD LEA R N MO R E ATCovid19.MCW.com
Recent Outdoor Delta Outbreaks
Outdoors
Tightly packed crowds
Shouting, singing
Prolonged exposure
No masks
Unvaccinated individuals
Top left. Lollapalooza Chicago 2021. “Where’s Waldo?” photo by Colin Hinkle/Soaring Badger Productions.
Top right. Pendleton, OR 2021 Whisky Music Fest. From Instagram.
Bottom left. Brooklyn, MI 2021 Faster Horses Festival. From Yahoo Life.
9Presented on 8/10/2021
Learn more: covid19.mcw.eduNEWLY DOCUMENTED OUTDOOR SPREAD LEA R N MO R E ATCovid19.MCW.com
Recent Outdoor Delta Outbreaks
Outdoors
Tightly packed crowds
Shouting
Prolonged exposure
No masks
Unvaccinated individualsBucks celebration Jeffrey Phelps. Associated Press. Bucks celebration. From Daily Mail.
10Presented on 8/10/2021
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Bucks celebration – unattributed source.
11Presented on 8/10/2021
Learn more: covid19.mcw.eduWhy Get Vaccinated? LEA R N MO R E ATCovid19.MCW.com
If vaccinated individuals still can get COVID-19 and spread it to others, why bother getting the shot?• COVID-19 vaccines reduce severe disease and hospitalizations by >
90%.• COVID-19 vaccines prevent COVID-19 related deaths by > 99%.• COVID-19 vaccines reduce transmission by 50%.Why do vaccinated people need to wear masks and practice other mitigation measures?• Masks protect those around us.• Because vaccinated individuals have mild COVID-19 symptoms and
because they can spread COVID-19 to vulnerable individuals, other mitigation measures add important extra layers of protection for those around us.
COVID-19 vaccines
Are safe and highly effective
Dramatically reduce hospitalizations and
deaths
Reduce symptomatic disease
BUT, delta still can be spread to others
because of high viral loads in nose, mouth
and throat
12Presented on 8/10/2021
Learn more: covid19.mcw.eduLOOKING TO THE FUTURE LEA R N MO R E ATCovid19.MCW.com
Biggest Threats• Lack of vaccine confidence.• Relaxed personal and community vigilance (masks, distancing, avoid
crowds) • Continuing emergence of newer COVID-19 variants.• Pandemic will not be over until world has been vaccinated. Promising Developments• FDA approval of mRNA vaccine/s expected within weeks.• Booster shots or vaccines to address variants will be easier to
develop than original vaccine.• Promising oral protease inhibitors are in phase 2/3 clinical trials and
could be used for prophylaxis or for mild cases of COVID-19.
13Presented on 8/10/2021
Learn more: covid19.mcw.eduVACCINE ATTITUDES and INTENT – ADULTS
One-Fourth of Unvaccinated Adults Say They Will Get Vaccinated by End of 2021
Higher Risk from COVID-19
Total Adults Unvaccinated
3%
Don’t Know
Majority of Unvaccinated Adults Believe Getting the Vaccine is a Higher Risk than Getting COVID-19
Wait and SeeAdults
Definitely NotAdults
Higher Risk from Vaccine
Don’t Know
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Vaccine Monitor Dashboard
14Presented on 8/10/2021
Learn more: covid19.mcw.eduVACCINE ATTITUDES and INTENT – ADULTS
Among unvaccinated adults who acknowledge spread of variants in the U.S., more than 35% are taking protective actions
*Vaccination intent only asked of individuals who were unvaccinated at time of survey
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Vaccine Monitor Dashboard
15Presented on 8/10/2021
Learn more: covid19.mcw.eduVACCINE ATTITUDES and INTENT – ADULTS
For unvaccinated adults, the top motivator to get vaccinated is full approval from FDA
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Vaccine Monitor Dashboard
16Presented on 8/10/2021
Learn more: covid19.mcw.eduVACCINE ATTITUDES and INTENT – PARENTS
Less than 50% of parents already have vaccinated or will vaccinate child or children between the ages of 12 - 17
Child already vaccinatedRight away Wait and see
Only if Required Definitely not
Nearly 70% of parents are hesitant to vaccinate their child or children under age 12
Will vaccinate right away Wait and SeeOnly if
Required Definitely not
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Vaccine Monitor Dashboard
17Presented on 8/10/2021
Learn more: covid19.mcw.eduVACCINE ATTITUDES and INTENT – EMPLOYEES
Among employed individuals, employers rank among the most trusted in providing reliable information about COVID-19 vaccines
*Among parents of children under 18
**Among insured individuals
***Among employed individuals and not self-employed
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Vaccine Monitor Dashboard
18Presented on 8/10/2021
Learn more: covid19.mcw.eduVACCINE EFFORTS IN MILWAUKEE LEA R N MO R E ATCovid19.MCW.com
Trained Community Mobilizers Paired with Vaccinators
Door to Door by Census Tract
Peer to Peer Texting
Social Media Geofencing
Teen Squad
19Presented on 8/10/2021
Learn more: covid19.mcw.eduDATA SOURCES
WE USE MULTIPLE EXTERNAL DATA SOURCES FOR THESE PRESENTATIONS• Wisconsin Hospital Association: wha.org/COVID-19Update• Wisconsin Department of Health Services: https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/index.htm• Milwaukee County: https://county.milwaukee.gov/EN/COVID-19• https://covidtracking.com/• New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html• and https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html• Wisconsin Electronic Disease Surveillance System (secure access required)• Milwaukee County Unified Emergency Operations Center (secure access required)• Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/health-equity/race-ethnicity.html• Worldometers: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/• Johns Hopkins: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/vaccines• Kaiser Family Foundation Vaccine Monitor Dashboard https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/dashboard/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-dashboard/
MEDICAL COLLEGE OF WISCONSIN ANALYTICS• Institute for Health and Equity• Division of Epidemiology • Epidemiology Data Resource Center and Geographic Information System
DATA SOURCES LEA R N MO R E ATCovid19.MCW.com