mobile apps – past, present, and future apps ppt.pdf · lg 3.6% 12.1% 340 motorola 10.7% 9.0% 84...
TRANSCRIPT
Mobile Apps –Present, Past, and Future
Dan Gordon Director of Research, Valhalla Partners
[email protected] Twitter: @pipik
WHERE WERE WE LAST MAY?
Mobile Client Wars (from 2011)
What’s the Apple/Android Rivalry All About? (from 2011)
• An Old Story from the 80’s
• It’s all about the apps, stupid
• Steve Jobs vs. Bill Gates vs. Sergey & Larry
Convergence/Divergence (from 2011)
Networks… Converge
• Proprietary networks killed by Ethernet/IP/TCP – X.25
– VANs
– EDI
– TDM
– Fibre Channel
– Cable?
• Networks become dumb pipes despite wishes of their owners
Edge Devices… Diverge
• The “right” device trumps the “one” device
• New devices – Smartphones
– Netbooks
– Tablets
– Nettops
– Set-top boxes?
• New devices can anchor and consolidate value chains
WHERE ARE WE TODAY?
Smartphone market
• Android is ahead
• RIM is finished
• Microsoft?
• Apple is still growin, is still “leader” in some senses
Apple subs (counting iPad, etc.)
Apple iOS vs. Android OS Across Media Devices 3 Mo. Avg. Ending February 2011 Total U.S. Mobile Subscribers, Age 13+ Source: comScore MobiLens
Total Installed Base (000)
Share (%) of Mobile Subscribers
Total Subscribers 234,000 100.0%
Apple iOS 37,868 16.2%
Android OS 23,763 10.2%
Another Way to Look at iPads Mobile Phone OEM Breakdown for Apple iPad Owners 3 Mo. Avg. Ending February 2011 Total U.S. Mobile Subscribers, Age 13+ Source: comScore MobiLens
% of Smartphone Users
% of iPad Users
Index of iPad to Smartphone Owners*
Total Subscribers 100.0% 100.0% 100
Apple 25.2% 27.3% 108
RIM 28.9% 17.5% 61
Samsung 8.6% 14.3% 167
LG 3.6% 12.1% 340
Motorola 10.7% 9.0% 84
Nokia 2.3% 3.4% 149
And Another Way to Think about iPads
• Android tablets are still pretty sorry
• Consumers will not infinitely pay more
• Focus on “killer app” is important
• Amazon is a really interesting company
U.S. Market Share of Android Tablets by Unique Devices Dec-2011, Jan-2012, Feb-2012 Total U.S. Source: comScore Device Essentials*
% Share of Android Tablets
Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12
Amazon Kindle Fire 29.4% 41.8% 54.4%
Samsung Galaxy Tab Family 23.8% 19.1% 15.4%
Motorola Xoom 11.8% 9.0% 7.0%
Asus Transformer 6.4% 6.2% 6.3%
Toshiba AT100 7.1% 7.0% 5.7%
Acer Picasso 6.0% 5.2% 4.3%
Acer Iconia 2.8% 2.6% 2.1%
Dell Streak 2.2% 1.7% 1.3%
Lenovo IdeaPad Tablet K1 0.7% 0.9% 1.2%
Sony Tablet S 0.9% 0.8% 0.7%
Other 8.9% 5.6% 1.6%
How to think about iOS vs. Android
• 2 reasons why iOS works
– Controls experience
– Has an artifact
• 2 reasons why iOS doesn’t work
– Developers turned off
– Advertisers turned off
APPS ARE KOOL…
What “Everyone” Does with Apps
How about that texting??
Types of Information
Multi-Use
4 things I like in an app
• Web Second – Apps are more critical to adoption – Apps are harder to get right – Web is still a junky UI/UX environment
• Ubiquity – Main issue for me is running on desktop, laptop,
Android, and iOS – Synchronizing
• Gesture and voice • “Fun”
– Clear on iOS
Google Glasses (and other AR)
Hone AR for Use Case
Form Factor Matters (Smart Contacts)
Siri vs. Google Voice
Crowdsourcing (e.g., Waze)
• Map/Nav/Traffic
• Bottom-up build
• UGC
• Social
What is unique about SoLoMo?
Collaborative Consumption (e.g., Wheelz)
• Youth-limited?
• Does value proposition survive “Green” veneer?
Quantified Self (e.g., FitBit)
Screen clipping taken: 4/28/2012 7:06 AM
Screen clipping taken: 4/28/2012 7:09 AM
APPS ARE COOL, BUT ONLY PART OF THE PICTURE
What Can the Past Teach Us about the Future of Mobile?
What 1980’s 2000’s
A new device caught fire PC (Apple II, IBM PC) Smart mobile client (iPhone, iPad)
With killer apps Spreadsheet, Word Processing eMail, calendar, web (via apps)
It vexed IS/IT File servers, LANs, modems MDM, MAM, BYOD
It transformed IT Client-sever computing, LANs Mobile cloud ??, ubiquitous computing ??
It transformed servers “commodity” scale-out servers, clusters
SSDs, GPUs, ARM??
Apps went away • Browsers • Salesforce • Web apps • 1995 PC vs. 2005 PC
HTML 5??
The “open” platform shellacked the “closed” platform
PC trounced Mac ????
Cloud and Mobile • Cloud provides integration
• Cloud provides performance
• Cloud provides scale
• Cloud provides ubiquity
• Both B2C and B2B
Big Data and Mobile
• Big Data as part of user value proposition (e.g., Augmented reality and Big Data)
• Big Data as part of user monetization (e.g., PlaceIQ)
Security and Mobile
• Security today: MDM – Device oriented (kill,
hardened apps) – Device belongs to
company
• Security tomorrow: BYOD – Need to distinguish
(and wall) personal and business use
– Can’t brick the phone
• Not just a B2B issue
Client (Device & App) Management and Mobile
Connected TVs, Nettops, Settops
M2M
Other wireless/mobile clients
• Converged network, divergent devices
• Future of the nav system, other thick clients
• The Future of Apps
