model intercomparison projects (mips) · documentation and analysis project (mvdap) - essentially...
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CCMVal-1 CCMVal-2
CMIP3/IPPC4 CMIP5/IPPC5 CMIP5/IPPC5
CORDEX
CHFP
GLACE-2 CMIP5 Decadal
SHFP
ISVHE
IceHFP CFMIP
CFMIP phase 2
2000 03 05 07 01 02 04 06 08 09
MPACE GCSS WG2
GCPI
GeoMIP
ARM GCSS
CMIP5 AMIP
AEROCOM Phase II
MPACE GCSS WG1
TWP–ICE
CIRC
CGILS MJO–MIP
CCMI
CMAM30
Climate projections
Chemistry Climate Modelling
Seasonal/Decadal Prediction
Model development SCM
Model development AGCM
Application/MIP Type
Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs)
● CCCma participated ~25 MIPs over the last decade ● number and complexity of the MIPs has been increasing steadily over the last few years.
CanESM4!
AGCM4!
OGCM4!CTEM CMOC
CanRCM4!
AGCM4!C
hem
CMAM!Strat/Meso
AGCM3!
CanCM3!
AGCM3!
OGCM3!COUPLER
AGCM4!
OGCM4!COUPLER
CanCM4!CanSIPS!
ACCMIP
CCMVal-1
CCMVal-2
CORDEX
CMIP5
GEOMIP
MJO-DPIP
CMAM30
CCMI
SHFP
CHFP
GLASE-2
CMIP5
IceHFP
Current Model Suite Unification
CMIP6 Model Suite
– strat/trop chemistry – carbon cycle
Development
– AGCM dynamical core
– ocean model (NEMO)
– AGCM physics (eg aerosols, clouds)
– land surface
– ocean/land biogeo- chemical physics
– sea ice
CanESM5!
AGCM5!
OGCM5!
CM
AM
CMOC5 CTEM5 COUPLER
CanRCM5!
CM
AM
CTEM5
AGCM5!
CanCM3!
AGCM3!
OGCM3!COUPLER
AGCM4!
OGCM4!COUPLER
CanCM4!
CanSIPS!
AGCM5!
OGCM5!COUPLER
CanCM5!
CTEM5 CMOC5
CM
AM
CCCMa Model Development
CanAM4.1
CanOM4.1
CTEM4.1
CanAM4.2
CanOM4.2
CTEM4.2
CanESM4.1
CanSIPS4.1
CanRCM4.1
CanESM4.0 (CanESM2)
CanSIPS4.0 (CanSIPS)
CanRCM4.0 (CanRCM4)
CanAM4.3
CanOM4.3
CTEM4.3
CanESM4.2
CanSIPS4.2
CanRCM4.2
CanESM4.1
CanSIPS4.1
CanRCM4.1
(Apr/12) 18 months
(Oct/13)
Science Innovation
Model Development
Model Application
Model Version 4.0 (CMIP5)
4.1 4.2
4.3
Model Development
12 months
locked config documenting simulations
development/tuning
Science Innovation
12 months
locked physics tuning then documenting simulations
physics development
CCCma 18 Month Cycle of Model Version Development
(Oct/10) 18 months 18 months
CanAM4.1
CanOM4.1
CTEM4.1
CanAM4.2
CanOM4.2
CTEM4.2
CanESM4.1
CanSIPS4.1
CanRCM4.1
CanESM4.0 (CanESM2)
CanSIPS4.0 (CanSIPS)
CanRCM4.0 (CanRCM4)
CanAM4.3
CanOM4.3
CTEM4.3
CanESM4.2
CanSIPS4.2
CanRCM4.2
CanESM4.1
CanSIPS4.1
CanRCM4.1
(Apr/12) 18 months
(Oct/13)
Science Innovation
Model Development
Model Application
CCCma 18 Month Cycle of Model Version Development
Documenting simulations and their analysis are critical components of development cycle!
(Oct/10) 18 months 18 months
– documenting simulations are our internal version of “CMIP dignosis, evaluation and characterization experiments” (AMIP, 1850 control, historical, Hansen, Gregory, RCPs…)
such experiments inform both model development and application
Model-Based Climate Science
● Model “Development” and “Application” are high-profile community activities
– are biases model specific or systematic?
● Model “Documentation” has received far less attention but it is critical to both development and application
Development: – what is the impact of model changes on model behaviour and biases?
– how have biases evolved across model versions? – where are future development efforts best invested? Have those efforts had the desired impact?
– what are the basic properties/biases of that model version? Application: – what is the specific model version used for a particular study?
– is there any reason to suspect that the results of that study were adversely affected by the properties/biases of the version used?
There appears to be a real opportunity to fill this vacuum with something that would aid development efforts, improve the credibility and transparency of model- based climate studies, and ease the burden on modelling centers as well as MIPs
● It is arguable that the community’s model documentation efforts to date have poorly served the needs of both model development and model applications
Model Version Documentation and Analysis
● Model Version Documentation involves more than performing documenting runs.
● enormous advantages to creating an ongoing, community-led, Model Version Documentation and Analysis Project (MVDAP) - essentially an ongoing MIP
– simulations, data requests, diagnostic analyses periodically reviewed and updated – following CMIP5, MVDAP output could be served up freely in an online database
– The goal is to coordinate the interests of both model development and model application to serviced the communities interest in both (enormous efficiency)
– the MVDAP database would provide a rich archive for research into systematic model biases, model validation, metrics, etc. – MVDAP would connect model development, model analysis, and model application efforts across modelling centers and its transparency would greatly enhance the credibility of climate modelling science.
data request
diagnostic analysis
documenting simulations
version attributes
Documentation Analysis Documentation
– attribution (eg CMIP5 METAFORE questionnaire) – diagnosis, evaluation and characterization exp
Analysis – data request (time-series’ variables and frequencies) – analysis (suite of diagnostics to document model behaviour an properties, validation, metrics…)
Potential Evolution of MVDAP Archive Over Time
MDP.v01 MDP.v02 MDP.v03 MDP.v04
– versions of model documentation packages (i.e. model attributes, documenting runs, associated data request, and diagnostic analyses)
– colours represent 6 different models (A-F), with model versions increasing from left to right
mod
el
A B C D
E
F
– such model documentation packages would contain an enormous amount valuable information about:
time
– over time the archive would document a transparent history of climate models and their properties improving the traceability and credibility of their applications
the state of climate modeling at any given time the evolution of any one model’s properties over time (across versions)