The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project

(ISI-MIP)

www.isi-mip.org

Coordination team: Katja Frieler, Veronika Huber, Franziska Piontek, Jacob Schewe, Olivia Serdeczny, Lila Warszawski

ISI-MIP CGE workshop, 18/19 September 2013

Leading QuestionsWhy should we pay a lot of money for achieving a 2°C

instead of 3°C world?

How good are we at telling the difference between a 2°C and a 3°C world ?

What are the related uncertainties?

Are there essential deficiencies in our process understanding or the way proccesses are represented

in impact models?

Global Mean Annual Temperature Change Relative to 1980-1999 10 2 3 4 5°C

Current Situation in Impact Knowledge ...

IPCC AR4, WGII, Table 20.8

What Is the ISI-MIP Fast Track?

• Synthesis of impacts at different levels of global warming

RCP climate projections

Global: CMIP5

Socio-economic input

SSP population and GDP

• Agriculture • Water • Biomes• Health (Malaria)• (Coastal infrastructure)

Multiple climate models & latest socio-economics

(no further harmonization!)

Multiple global impact models per sector+ Fast track contribution to

AR5=

>30 models, 11 countries5 GCMs, 4 RCPs each

>20 papers

PNAS Special Feature

Public ISI-MIP database

CMIP3/CMIP5 model genealogy

Input Data & Setup: Choice of GCMs GCMs chosen for ISI-MIP Fast Track (based on 2 criteria: variable availability and predicted T and P):

HadGEM2-ES

MIROC-ESM-CHEM

IPSL-CM5A-LR

GFDL-ESM-2M

NorESM1-M

Knutti et al. 2013 GRL

Input Data & Setup: Temperature Projections

Warzsawski et al. PNAS accepted

„Present-day“: 1980-2010

Input Data & Setup: Climate Dataset and Bias Correction

*Bias-corrected

Hempel et al. ESDD, 4, 49-92, 2013: A trend-preserving bias correction – the ISI-MIP approach.

Climate variables provided:

Surface air temperatures (Tavg, Tmin, Tmax)*

Precipitation*

Surface radiation (short- and longwave downwelling)*

Near-surface wind speed (east- and north-ward)*

Near-surface wind speed (total)*

Surface air pressure*

Near-surface relative humidity*

CO2 concentration

Input Data & Setup: Spatial Patterns of Temperature Projections

Difference in bias–corrected, average surface air temperature between end of the century (2070-2099) and present-day (1980-2010) under RCP8.5

Warzsawski et al. PNAS accepted

Input Data & Setup: Spatial Patterns of Precipitation Projections

Difference in bias–corrected, average annual rainfall between end of the century (2070-2099) and present-day (1980-2010) under RCP8.5

Warzsawski et al. PNAS accepted

• 9 water models: VIC, H08, WaterGAP, MacPDM, WBM, MPI-HM, PCR-GLOBWB, DBH, MATSIRO

• 5 biomes models: Hybrid, Sheffield DGVM, JeDi, ANTHRO-BGC, VISIT• 8+2 agriculture models: GEPIC, EPIC, pDSSAT, DAYCENT, IMAGE,

PEGASUS, LPJ-GUESS, MCWLA + MAgPIE, GLOBIOM, ...• 3 cross-sectoral models: LPJmL, ORCHIDEE, JULES• 5 health models (= malaria): MIASMA, MARA, VECTRI, WHO CCRA

Malaria, LMM 2005• 1 coastal infrastructure model: DIVA

• Collaboration with

Participating Models in ISI-MIP Fast Track:5 Sectors, > 30 Models, 11 Countries

ISI-MIP Scenarios and Run Priorities

ISI-MIP Longer-Term Perspective…

12

... Integration of regional models and new sectors ... Establishment of a continuous process

5/2013

Impacts World 2013 Conference

What Will ISI-MIP Become After the Fast Track?

• Synthesis of impacts at different levels of global warming

• Model development and improvement

• Cross-sectoral interactions

• Impact emulators• Focus topic: extreme

events• ...

RCP climate projections Global:

CMIP5Regional: CORDEX

Socio-economic input

SSP population and GDP

• Agriculture, water, biomes, health, (coastal infrastructure)

• NEW sectors: permafrost, marine ecosystems and carbon cycle, forestry,...

Multiple climate models + =

Fast track contribution to AR5

Multiple global & regional impact models per sectorMultiple global & regional impact models per sector

Regular, consistent, and quantitative assessment

of climate impacts

Additional input data: e.g., historical data

What Will ISI-MIP Become After the Fast Track?

ISI-MIP2 Economic Integration Unit ?

Damage costs$$

Economic modeller?

Biophysical modeller?

ISI-MIP Input for CGE Models

Sector Variable (scenario)

Suggested linking method Comments

Agriculture Yield change

(CO2_default)

Water

Coastal Infra-structure

[...]

Suggested CGE Model Output Variables

Output variable Required harmonization?

Comments

GDP change (%)

Welfare change (%)

Trade effects ?

[...]