Modeling Respirable

Particulate Matter

Concentration in

Metro ManilaOverview and key findings of the study

Atty Glynda Bathan

Deputy Executive Director

Clean Air Asia

4 August 2016

Previous studies on MM air quality and

emission sources

Previous modelling studies:

Manins (1990), UrbAir (1997), Manila Observatory (2003 and later)

MO 2003 study features• Georeferenced roads and stationary sources

• Two versions of mobile emissions: one at road level (barangay to national),

another at transport zone level (based on a traffic demand model)

Modelling approach constrained by limitations• No hourly data, so long-term concentrations only

• Single meteorological condition applied to whole domain

Common limitations:

Emissions inventory and meteorological data

How to understand air pollution?Identify emission sources and recognize its impact

Various potential uses of dispersion modeling in decision

making:

Identify air pollution hotspots

Guide for siting of future air quality monitors

Can be interfaced with population/poverty maps for urban planning

Aid in Environmental Impact Assessment

Dispersion model

Replicates atmospheric conditions (i.e., wind speed and direction, air

temperature and mixing height), and provide an estimate of the

concentration of pollutants as they travel away from (an) emission sources. Source: USEPA

Project Objective

Main Objective:

Further strengthen air quality management (AQM) in Metro Manila by improving the understanding of PM pathway through an updated dispersion map and emissions inventory

Key questions answered by the project:

1. Considering major emission sources, are we within or exceeding national air quality guideline values? Which cities/areas have highest number/share of population exposed to higher PM levels?

2. What are the major sources of PM pollution in Metro Manila which may be targeted by the Metro Manila Airshed?

3. What are the possible scenarios which would contribute to an air pollution episode?

Next steps?

What is the potential for use of a dispersion model in AQM planning for airsheds?

Project Approach and Partners

1. Emissions Inventory

2. Dispersion Modeling

3. Validation

4. Dissemination, Capacity Building

Partners

Project Approach and Partners

Environmental Management Bureau of the Department of Environment and

Natural Resources – Central Office and NCR

Department of Public Works and Highways – NCR District Engineering

Offices

Philippine Statistics Authority

Land Transportation Office

Metro Manila Development Authority

National Solid Waste Management Commission

City Governments: Caloocan, Las Piñas, Makati, Malabon, Mandaluyong, Manila,

Marikina, Muntinlupa, Navotas, Parañaque, Pasay, Pasig, Quezon City, San Juan,

Taguig, Valenzuela

Municipal Government: Pateros

Students and researchers of Ateneo de Manila University, Rizal Technical

University, University Malaysia Terengganu, University of Santo Tomas

Developing the Dispersion Model for

Metro Manila

JANUARY

JULY

Meteorology and land use:

Wind flow over Metro Manila:

• Northeast during Nov-Apr (Amihan)

• Southwest during Jun-Oct (Habagat)

Terrain and land use – influencing

turbulence

FACTORS THAT AFFECT AIR QUALITY

Emissions from sources, determined by:

Location of source

Fuel type for combustion

Hours of operation of fuel burning

equipment

WHAT WE DID

Improved modelling methodology

Use of the CALPUFF Modelling System

Complex terrain and land use in Metro

Manila are accounted for

Hourly winds and concentrations are

predicted

Huge increase in number of sources

modelled

Emissions from cooking, small

generators included

Household emissions defined at

barangay level

Hourly emissions from city roads and

bigger road network

Dispersion Model

● Main components: meteorological model (CALMET) and dispersion model (CALPUFF)

● Incorporates variations of met conditions in space (3D model) –needed if the entire MM airshed is to be modelled

● Widely used outside US and recommended in EMB modelling guideline (MC 2008-003

● 500 m x 500 m grid

● Base year - 2012

Emission Inventory: Stationary Source

Data source: Self Monitoring Reports from EMB NCR

• Type of source, facility name, fuel consumption and hours of operation

Added by study team:

• UTM coordinates

• Annual emission rates of PM10 and PM2.5

estimated using published emission factors

• No stack information; stack parameters assigned based on class:

o Classes: continuous or temporary, large or small

o Large sources assigned stack parameters typical for type

o Small sources are assumed to be downwashed, so emission are assigned to cells (volume sources)

Location of establishments

Source: Clean Air Asia

Emission Inventory: Area Source

Data source: NSO Census of Population and Housing

• Total fuel use (city level); fuel consumption per household (national average)

• Barangay-level household data (e.g., average house floor area, type of roof)

Required: Fuel consumption by type per barangay

• Assumption: Higher income HH uses mainly LPG; lower-income HH will use more kerosene, charcoal, and wood

• Five income classes identified based on house floor area distribution

• Method estimates the consumption rate of each fuel type for each class

• Resulting distribution must still be consistent with total fuel use per municipality Population Density Map

Emission Inventory: Mobile Source

Date source: DPWH

• 24 hour traffic survey

Based on a transport model for Metro Manila (2010 JICA/DPWH High Standard Highway Study)

• Cube Transport Model Software

• Provides hourly emission rates of PM from six vehicle types

• Includes more than 5,200 road segments

• Emission factors based on HBEFA and MM Drive Cycle testing. Considers road function, speed, fuel type, and engine technology.

NCR Road Network

Model Validation –

Comparison with AQ monitoring data

Dispersion modelling results generally compare well

with observed concentrations

Underestimation at Taft station: potential model limitation because traffic model was not able to fully capture intra-zonal trips

Dispersion Model Key Results

Considering major emission sources, are we

within or exceeding national air quality guideline

values?

Annual average PM10 and PM2.5 levelsAll Sources (not including background contribution)

PM2.5

• AQ guideline values are exceeded considering all major sources

• 3% of MM exceeding NAAQGV for PM10 (60µg/m3), 21% for PM2.5 (25g/m3)

• 30% of MM exceeding WHO IT-3 for PM10 (30µg/m3), 42% for PM2.5

(15µg/m3)

PM2.5PM10

Annual average PM10 and PM2.5 levels

All Sources (not including background contribution)

• Increased development in Region 4-A may contribute to air pollution in

cities in the south of Metro Manila [not yet covered in the study]

• Around 23% of construction permits issued in 2014 were from Region 4-A

PM10PM2.5

Annual average PM10 and PM2.5 levels

All Sources (including background contribution)

• 12% of MM exceeding NAAQGV PM10 (60µg/m3), 42% for PM2.5 (25g/m3)

• 58% of MM exceeding WHO IT-3 PM10 (30µg/m3), 85% for PM2.5 (15µg/m3)

PM2.5PM10

• Background concentration of PM10 (15 µg/m3) was added (based on Manila Observatory Nueva

Ecija Station)

Maximum (98th percentile) 24-hour PM10 and PM2.5 levels

All Sources (not including background contribution)

PM2.5

• AQ guideline values are exceeded considering all major sources

• 18% of MM exceeding NAAQGV for PM10 (150µg/m3), 53% for PM2.5 (50

150µg/m3)

PM10

Dispersion Model Key Results

Which cities/areas have highest number/share of

population exposed to higher PM levels?

3 cities have at least 30% population exposed to annual PM10 levels above NAAQGVs

15 cities have at least 30% population exposed to levels above WHO IT3

Percent of population exposed to annual Average PM10 levels

25% of the population in MM exposed to NAAQGVs exceedance

Health: 79% of population exposed to levels above WHO IT3

Percent of population exposed to 98th percentile 24-hr PM10 levels

24-hour PM10: 35% of the population in MM exposed to

NAAQGVs exceedance

8 cities have at least 30% population exposed to 24-hour PM10 levels above NAAQGVs

Dispersion Model Key Results

What are the major sources of PM pollution in

Metro Manila which may be targeted by the

Metro Manila Airshed?

Annual average PM10 and PM2.5 levels

All Sources (not including background contribution)

PM2.5

Percent contribution of sources• Area sources: 20%

• Mobile sources: 76%

• Point: sources 4 %

PM10

Emissions from Mobile Sources

Total PM10 Emissions from Vehicles (tpy)

Cars Jeepneys

BusesTrucks

Primary sources of mobile source PM10:

Jeepneys, trucks and buses running on diesel

Motorcycles

Tricycles

Further study needed on intrazonal trips – especially significant to fully capture

tricycle emissions.

Emission from Area Sources

PM10 Emissions from households (tpy)

Wood Charcoal

LPG Kerosene

Potentially significant source:

Emissions from household/commercial cooking using solid fuels

Dispersion Model Key Results

What are the possible scenarios which would

contribute to an air pollution episode?

Potentially significant contribution from generator sets

During POWER OUTAGE…

Emissions from diesel generator sets can

exceed the guidelines on source specific

emissions from industrial sources and

operations

(200 µg/Ncm, DAO 2000-81)

Expected increase in demand due to

growth in industrial, residential and

commercial sectors and during summer

months

Maximum 1-hr PM10 concentrations

(from generator sets)

Other potential scenarios to

be explored

• Impact of Euro4 on air quality

• Impact of fireworks

• Impact of Interruptible Load

Program (ILP)

Next steps: potential for use in AQM planning

for airsheds

Supplement AQ monitoring and associated activities of the DENR-EMB thereby arriving at a more holistic Air Quality Management Plan

Assist NCR Airshed Governing Board in exercising its mandate [target key sources] Results presented at the NCR Airshed Governing Board Meeting in Clark last June

Discussions with EMB-NCR to share the data and model and collaborate to build

capacity to use the dispersion model for planning

Increase awareness on scale of impact of air pollution in Metro Manila [population exposure]

Assist in evaluating potential air quality impact of new/planned policies:

DENR, DOTC, DOE – on fuel quality and vehicle emission standards

MMDA – on traffic management

LGUs – on permits and regulation of establishments and of area source activities, controlling open burning, regulations for commercial grilling

Movement of development to neighboring regions of Metro Manila

Share results with industry/establishments for guidance in the exercise of their CSRs (oil companies, vehicle manufacturers, transport operators, operators of Air Pollution Source Equipment (APSE))