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Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy PETTER HOLME Introduction Our model Numerical results Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy Petter Holme, Josh Karlin, Stephanie Forrest Royal Institute of Technology, School of Computer Science and Technology October 8, 2008 http://www.csc.kth.se/pholme/

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Page 1: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Modeling the evolution of the AS-levelInternet: Integrating aspects of traffic,

geography and economy

Petter Holme, Josh Karlin, Stephanie Forrest

Royal Institute of Technology, School of Computer Science and Technology

October 8, 2008

http://www.csc.kth.se/∼pholme/

Page 2: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Autonomous Systems

Internet is divided into differentsubnetworks—Autonomous Systems (AS)

An IP network (or collection of IP networks) with the samerouting policy.

Typically one AS corresponds to one administrative unit.

Page 3: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Autonomous Systems

Internet is divided into differentsubnetworks—Autonomous Systems (AS)

An IP network (or collection of IP networks) with the samerouting policy.

Typically one AS corresponds to one administrative unit.

Page 4: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Autonomous Systems

Internet is divided into differentsubnetworks—Autonomous Systems (AS)

An IP network (or collection of IP networks) with the samerouting policy.

Typically one AS corresponds to one administrative unit.

Page 5: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Autonomous Systems

Internet is divided into differentsubnetworks—Autonomous Systems (AS)

An IP network (or collection of IP networks) with the samerouting policy.

Typically one AS corresponds to one administrative unit.

Page 6: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

BGP routing

Border Gateway Protocol determines how packets arerouted between ASes

Each server keeps a list of paths it can route a packetsthrough.

Policy (economical agreements) determines the order ofpaths.

→ a hierarchy where packets are routed up (to provider),sideways (to peer), and downwards (to customer).

A BGP server has a quite incomplete picture of the wholeAS-graph.

Page 7: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

BGP routing

Border Gateway Protocol determines how packets arerouted between ASes

Each server keeps a list of paths it can route a packetsthrough.

Policy (economical agreements) determines the order ofpaths.

→ a hierarchy where packets are routed up (to provider),sideways (to peer), and downwards (to customer).

A BGP server has a quite incomplete picture of the wholeAS-graph.

Page 8: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

BGP routing

Border Gateway Protocol determines how packets arerouted between ASes

Each server keeps a list of paths it can route a packetsthrough.

Policy (economical agreements) determines the order ofpaths.

→ a hierarchy where packets are routed up (to provider),sideways (to peer), and downwards (to customer).

A BGP server has a quite incomplete picture of the wholeAS-graph.

Page 9: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

BGP routing

Border Gateway Protocol determines how packets arerouted between ASes

Each server keeps a list of paths it can route a packetsthrough.

Policy (economical agreements) determines the order ofpaths.

→ a hierarchy where packets are routed up (to provider),sideways (to peer), and downwards (to customer).

A BGP server has a quite incomplete picture of the wholeAS-graph.

Page 10: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

BGP routing

Border Gateway Protocol determines how packets arerouted between ASes

Each server keeps a list of paths it can route a packetsthrough.

Policy (economical agreements) determines the order ofpaths.

→ a hierarchy where packets are routed up (to provider),sideways (to peer), and downwards (to customer).

A BGP server has a quite incomplete picture of the wholeAS-graph.

Page 11: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

BGP routing

Border Gateway Protocol determines how packets arerouted between ASes

Each server keeps a list of paths it can route a packetsthrough.

Policy (economical agreements) determines the order ofpaths.

→ a hierarchy where packets are routed up (to provider),sideways (to peer), and downwards (to customer).

A BGP server has a quite incomplete picture of the wholeAS-graph.

Page 12: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Degree distribution

Broad degree-distribution (possibly power-law, or log-normal).

1 10 100 1000k

10−4

10−3

0.01

0.1

1P

(k)

Page 13: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Mechanistic models of AS graph

Typically focus on network topology.

. . . possibly with a geometry.

. . . or traffic.

No geographically explicit ASes.

No explicit economic modeling (pricing, etc.)

Page 14: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Mechanistic models of AS graph

Typically focus on network topology.

. . . possibly with a geometry.

. . . or traffic.

No geographically explicit ASes.

No explicit economic modeling (pricing, etc.)

Page 15: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Mechanistic models of AS graph

Typically focus on network topology.

. . . possibly with a geometry.

. . . or traffic.

No geographically explicit ASes.

No explicit economic modeling (pricing, etc.)

Page 16: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Mechanistic models of AS graph

Typically focus on network topology.

. . . possibly with a geometry.

. . . or traffic.

No geographically explicit ASes.

No explicit economic modeling (pricing, etc.)

Page 17: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Mechanistic models of AS graph

Typically focus on network topology.

. . . possibly with a geometry.

. . . or traffic.

No geographically explicit ASes.

No explicit economic modeling (pricing, etc.)

Page 18: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Mechanistic models of AS graph

Typically focus on network topology.

. . . possibly with a geometry.

. . . or traffic.

No geographically explicit ASes.

No explicit economic modeling (pricing, etc.)

Page 19: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Barabasi–Albert model

probability of attachment: ∝ ki

Page 20: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Barabasi–Albert model

probability of attachment: ∝ ki

Page 21: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Barabasi–Albert model

probability of attachment: ∝ ki

Page 22: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Barabasi–Albert model

probability of attachment: ∝ ki

Page 23: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Barabasi–Albert model

probability of attachment: ∝ ki

Page 24: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

FKP model

attach i to vertex j minimizing:|ri − r j| + αd( j, 0)

0

Page 25: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

FKP model

attach i to vertex j minimizing:|ri − r j| + αd( j, 0)

|r1 − r0|0

Page 26: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

FKP model

0

attach i to vertex j minimizing:|ri − r j| + αd( j, 0)

Page 27: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

FKP model

0

attach i to vertex j minimizing:|ri − r j| + αd( j, 0)

Page 28: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

FKP model

0

attach i to vertex j minimizing:|ri − r j| + αd( j, 0)

Page 29: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

FKP model

0

attach i to vertex j minimizing:|ri − r j| + αd( j, 0)

Page 30: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

FKP model

0

attach i to vertex j minimizing:|ri − r j| + αd( j, 0)

Page 31: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

FKP model

0

attach i to vertex j minimizing:|ri − r j| + αd( j, 0)

Page 32: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Radial structure

Plot quantities as function of the average distance to the rest ofthe AS graph.

P. Holme, J. Karlin and S. Forrest, Proc. R. Soc. A 463,1231–1246 (2007).

Page 33: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Radial structure

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

2 3 4 5 6 7average distance,d

AS ’06BA modelInet model

frac

tion

ofve

rtic

es

Page 34: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Radial structure

AS ’06BA modelInet model

1

10

100

1000

2 3 4 5 6 7average distance,d

aver

age

degr

ee,k

Page 35: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Radial structure

AS ’06BA modelInet model

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2cl

uste

ring

coeffi

cien

t,C

2 3 4 5 6 7average distance,d

Page 36: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Radial structure

AS ’06BA modelInet model

0.01de

letio

nim

pact

2 3 4 5 6 7average distance,d

10−6

10−5

10−4

10−3

Page 37: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Aim

Make a mechanistic model that:

Page 38: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Aim

Make a mechanistic model that:

has spatially explicit ASes

Page 39: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Aim

Make a mechanistic model that:

has spatially explicit ASes

flowing between themwith realistic traffic

Page 40: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Aim

Make a mechanistic model that:

has spatially explicit ASes

flowing between themwith realistic traffic

that give the ASes income

Page 41: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Aim

Make a mechanistic model that:

has spatially explicit ASes

flowing between themwith realistic traffic

that give the ASes income

that the AS can invest in geographical growth

Page 42: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Aim

Make a mechanistic model that:

has spatially explicit ASes

flowing between themwith realistic traffic

that increase / affectthe traffic

that give the ASes income

that the AS can invest in geographical growth

Page 43: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Overall structure

The model begins with one agent located at the pixel with thehighest population density. The model then iterates over thefollowing steps:

1 Network growth. The number of agents is increased. Theagents are expanded geometrically, and their capacitiesare adjusted.

2 Network traffic. Messages are created, migrated towardtheir targets, and delivered. This process is repeatedNtraffic times before the next network-growth step.

Page 44: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Overall structure

The model begins with one agent located at the pixel with thehighest population density. The model then iterates over thefollowing steps:

1 Network growth. The number of agents is increased. Theagents are expanded geometrically, and their capacitiesare adjusted.

2 Network traffic. Messages are created, migrated towardtheir targets, and delivered. This process is repeatedNtraffic times before the next network-growth step.

Page 45: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Overall structure

The model begins with one agent located at the pixel with thehighest population density. The model then iterates over thefollowing steps:

1 Network growth. The number of agents is increased. Theagents are expanded geometrically, and their capacitiesare adjusted.

2 Network traffic. Messages are created, migrated towardtheir targets, and delivered. This process is repeatedNtraffic times before the next network-growth step.

Page 46: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Network Growth

geography represented as sq. grid

Page 47: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Network Growth

geography represented as sq. grideach pixel has a pop. density

Page 48: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Network Growth

geography represented as sq. grideach pixel has a pop. densitythe ASes are modeled as:

Page 49: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Network Growth

geography represented as sq. grideach pixel has a pop. densitythe ASes are modeled as:

a set of locations (coordinates)

Page 50: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Network Growth

geography represented as sq. grideach pixel has a pop. densitythe ASes are modeled as:

a set of locations (coordinates)set of links (to AS at same pixel)

Page 51: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Network Growth

geography represented as sq. grideach pixel has a pop. densitythe ASes are modeled as:

a set of locations (coordinates)

budgetset of links (to AS at same pixel)

Page 52: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Network Growth

geography represented as sq. grideach pixel has a pop. densitythe ASes are modeled as:

a set of locations (coordinates)

budgetset of links (to AS at same pixel)

queue

Page 53: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Network Growth

geography represented as sq. grideach pixel has a pop. densitythe ASes are modeled as:

a set of locations (coordinates)

budget

capacity

set of links (to AS at same pixel)

queue

Page 54: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Network Growth

geography represented as sq. grideach pixel has a pop. densitythe ASes are modeled as:

a set of locations (coordinates)

budget

capacity

set of links (to AS at same pixel)

queue

costs for: increasing capacityconnecting to other, adding loc.

Page 55: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Network Growth

geography represented as sq. grideach pixel has a pop. densitythe ASes are modeled as:

a set of locations (coordinates)

budget

capacity

set of links (to AS at same pixel)

queue

costs for: increasing capacityconnecting to other, adding loc.income prop. to traffic

Page 56: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Network Growth

Page 57: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Network Growth

1. (while nwk too dense,) add ASes

Page 58: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Network Growth

1. (while nwk too dense,) add ASes2. increase capacity as much as needed

Page 59: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Network Growth

1. (while nwk too dense,) add ASes2. increase capacity as much as needed

3. link addition

Page 60: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Network Growth

1. (while nwk too dense,) add ASes2. increase capacity as much as needed

3. link addition

connect unconnected pairs at random

Page 61: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Network Growth

1. (while nwk too dense,) add ASes2. increase capacity as much as needed

3. link addition

connect unconnected pairs at random

(if both ASes can afford a connection)

Page 62: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Network Growth

1. (while nwk too dense,) add ASes2. increase capacity as much as needed

3. link addition

connect unconnected pairs at random

(if both ASes can afford a connection)

4. spatial extension

Page 63: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Network Growth

1. (while nwk too dense,) add ASes2. increase capacity as much as needed

3. link addition

connect unconnected pairs at random

(if both ASes can afford a connection)

4. spatial extension

ASes spend their budget on new loc

Page 64: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Network Growth

1. (while nwk too dense,) add ASes2. increase capacity as much as needed

3. link addition

connect unconnected pairs at random

(if both ASes can afford a connection)

4. spatial extension

ASes spend their budget on new loc

choose affordable pixel w highest pop

Page 65: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Traffic dynamics

Page 66: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Traffic dynamics

Page 67: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Traffic dynamics

Page 68: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Traffic dynamics

s

t

Page 69: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Traffic dynamics

s

t s

t

Page 70: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Traffic dynamics

t = 1

Page 71: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Traffic dynamics

t = 2

Page 72: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Traffic dynamics

t = 3

Page 73: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Time evolution

a

b

c

〈τ p〉,〈

d〉100

104

1

103

number of agents, nnumber of links, m

n,m

frac

tion

ofto

tal

0.25

0.5

0.75

0

covered populationcovered area

120 140 160 200180

120 140 160 200

time, τ

2

3

4

5

6

7〈d〉〈τp〉

100180 100001000time, τ number of ASs, n

8

Page 74: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Degree distribution

1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000 1 100 100010k k k

10−4

10−3

0.01

0.1

1P

(k)

real

model 10−4

10−3

0.01

0.1

1

BA model

P(k

)

10−3

0.01

0.1

1

P(k

)

FKP model

10−4

Page 75: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Degree distribution

10−5 10−6 10−4 10−31

10

104

104 105 106103

traffic load

degr

ee,k 100

Page 76: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Radial statistics

0

0.1

0.2

our model

AS06 FKPBAfr

actio

nof

vert

ices

5 6 5 65 6 3 4 3 43 4average distance,d average distance,d average distance,d

Page 77: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Radial statistics

3 4 3 43 4average distance,d average distance,d average distance,d

5 6 5 65 6

aver

age

degr

ee

1

10

102

103

Page 78: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Traffic vs centrality

10−6 10−310−410−5 10−110−2

10−4

10−3

10−5

1 5 10 50

traffi

cde

nsity

betweenness, CB ×104

Page 79: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Geography

100 200 300population density (people per square mile)

0

t = 14λ = 6

Page 80: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Geography

100 200 300population density (people per square mile)

0

λ = 15t = 23

Page 81: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Geography

100 200 300population density (people per square mile)

0

t = 28λ = 69

Page 82: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Geography

100 200 300population density (people per square mile)

0

λ = 272t = 28

Page 83: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Geography

Page 84: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Geography

Page 85: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Summary

Mechanistic growth model of AS-level Internet

Degree distribution matches

Periphery not as complex as reality

Traffic fluctuations affect low- and medium-sized ASes

Spatial distribution not completely crazy

P. Holme, J. Karlin and S. Forrest, An integrated model oftraffic, geography and economy in the Internet. ComputerCommunication Review 32, 7–15 (2008).

Page 86: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Summary

Mechanistic growth model of AS-level Internet

Degree distribution matches

Periphery not as complex as reality

Traffic fluctuations affect low- and medium-sized ASes

Spatial distribution not completely crazy

P. Holme, J. Karlin and S. Forrest, An integrated model oftraffic, geography and economy in the Internet. ComputerCommunication Review 32, 7–15 (2008).

Page 87: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Summary

Mechanistic growth model of AS-level Internet

Degree distribution matches

Periphery not as complex as reality

Traffic fluctuations affect low- and medium-sized ASes

Spatial distribution not completely crazy

P. Holme, J. Karlin and S. Forrest, An integrated model oftraffic, geography and economy in the Internet. ComputerCommunication Review 32, 7–15 (2008).

Page 88: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Summary

Mechanistic growth model of AS-level Internet

Degree distribution matches

Periphery not as complex as reality

Traffic fluctuations affect low- and medium-sized ASes

Spatial distribution not completely crazy

P. Holme, J. Karlin and S. Forrest, An integrated model oftraffic, geography and economy in the Internet. ComputerCommunication Review 32, 7–15 (2008).

Page 89: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Summary

Mechanistic growth model of AS-level Internet

Degree distribution matches

Periphery not as complex as reality

Traffic fluctuations affect low- and medium-sized ASes

Spatial distribution not completely crazy

P. Holme, J. Karlin and S. Forrest, An integrated model oftraffic, geography and economy in the Internet. ComputerCommunication Review 32, 7–15 (2008).

Page 90: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Summary

Mechanistic growth model of AS-level Internet

Degree distribution matches

Periphery not as complex as reality

Traffic fluctuations affect low- and medium-sized ASes

Spatial distribution not completely crazy

P. Holme, J. Karlin and S. Forrest, An integrated model oftraffic, geography and economy in the Internet. ComputerCommunication Review 32, 7–15 (2008).

Page 91: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Summary

Mechanistic growth model of AS-level Internet

Degree distribution matches

Periphery not as complex as reality

Traffic fluctuations affect low- and medium-sized ASes

Spatial distribution not completely crazy

P. Holme, J. Karlin and S. Forrest, An integrated model oftraffic, geography and economy in the Internet. ComputerCommunication Review 32, 7–15 (2008).

Page 92: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Other integrative mechanistic models

S. Shakkottai et al.. Evolution of the Internet Ecosystem.

S. Bar, M. Gonen & A. Wool. A geographic directedpreferential Internet topology model. Computer Networks51, 4174–4188 (2007).

Page 93: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Other integrative mechanistic models

S. Shakkottai et al.. Evolution of the Internet Ecosystem.

S. Bar, M. Gonen & A. Wool. A geographic directedpreferential Internet topology model. Computer Networks51, 4174–4188 (2007).

Page 94: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Other integrative mechanistic models

S. Shakkottai et al.. Evolution of the Internet Ecosystem.

S. Bar, M. Gonen & A. Wool. A geographic directedpreferential Internet topology model. Computer Networks51, 4174–4188 (2007).

Page 95: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Future

Including economy.

Simple models.

Page 96: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Future

Including economy.

Simple models.

Page 97: Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traffic, geography and economy

Modeling theevolution ofthe AS-level

Internet:Integratingaspects of

traffic,geography

and economy

PETTERHOLME

Introduction

Our model

Numericalresults

Future

Including economy.

Simple models.