modeling)the)hydrologic/ecologic/economic/social ... · model!development,!and decision!analysis....
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Modeling the Hydrologic/Ecologic/Economic/SocialDynamics of Small Scale Community Irriga;on Systems
Vincent C. TidwellSandia Na1onal Laboratories
Acequias and the Future of Resilience in Global Perspec;ve LasCruces, NM, March 5, 2013
Project Team Funding
Na*onal Science Founda*on – Program on the Dynamics of Coupled Natural& Human Systems -‐ #1010516
NSF NM EPSCoR -‐ #0814449
New Mexico Agricultural Experiment Sta*on
Universi*es New Mexico State University (Brian Hurd, Sam Fernald, Ken Boykin, Andres
Cibils, Steve Guldan, Cai* Steele, Carlos Ochoa)
University of New Mexico (Jose Rivera, Sylvia Rodriguez)
New Mexico Ins*tute of Mining and Technology (John Wilson)
University of Concepcion, Chile (J.L. Arumi)
Collaborators Sandia Na*onal Laboratories (Vince Tidwell)
New Mexico Acequia Associa*on (Marquita Or*z)
Key Questions What role do acequias play in:
Hydrologic buffering?
Community resilience? Ecosystem health?
How do climate change and urban popula*ongrowth challenge these func*ons?
What strategies are needed to assist in protec*ngthese func*ons?
Need Tools to integrate knowledge and data developed aspart of project
Tools to evaluate alterna*ve treatments in face ofuncertainty.
Tools that our stakeholders will trust to assist themin long-‐term planning.
Approach: Collaborative Modeling Process of engaging
decision-‐makers andstakeholders in: Model development, and
Decision analysis.
Purpose of broad inputincludes: Expand knowledge base,
Structure groupthinking/discussion,
S*mulate group learning, and
Ul*mately lead to improvedadvocacy.
Indicated flow rate USA toMexico
Potential flow toMexico
Mexicoconstraints
Discrepancy or flux in favor offlow to USA
USA value or valuespertinent to the cross
border flow of this stock
USA Desired Stockof desireable entity
Mexico value or valuespertinent to the cross
border flow of this stock
MexicoActual Stockof desireable
entity
+
-+
-
-
+
-
Indicated flow rateMexico to USA
-
Potental flow to USA
+
USA constraints
+ USA policypressure
-
+-
Mexico policypressure
+
USA ActualStock ofdesireable
entity
USA Stockshortfall
+
+
USAProduction of
desireableentity (model)
+
Mexico DesiredStock of desireable
entity
Mexico Stockshortfall
MexicoProduction of
desireableentity (model)
+
+
-
+
+
-
-
MIT D-Memo D-2843Suggested Solution to Modeling
Assignment #4 (D-2824)Dynamics of Illegal Mexican
MigrationHomayoon E. DabiriDecember 23, 1977
Coverted from DYNAMO toPowersim Studio 2003L. Malczynski 2-2005
USA
MEXICO
BORDER
BHIM Business HiringIllegal Immigrants
IMPUS Illegal MigrantPopulation in the US
PMPM PotentialMigrant Population in
Mexico
PRM Population ofRural Mexico
BHRM BusinessesHiring Rural Mexicans
BE BusinessExpansion Rate
BRE BusinessReduction Rate
EMR EmigrationRate
IMR ImmigrationRate
NAPMP NewAdditions to thePotential Migrant
Population
PDPMP PermanentDepartures from the
Potential MigrantPool
NEBRM NetExpansion of
Business
NBR Net Birth Rate
GIRA GovernmentInvestment in Rural
Mexico
INV Investment inRural Mexico
EIEB Effect ofInvestment onExpansion of
BusinessEWMBE Effect ofWages in Mexico onBusiness Expansion
JRM Jobs for RuralMexicansJPR Jobs to
Population Ratio
WPRM WorkingPopulation of Rural
Mexico
WRM Wages inRural Mexico
EWRM Effect ofWages in Mexico on
New PotentialMigrants
EMURUS Effect ofIllegal Migrant
Unemployment inUS on Desirability to
Migrate
EWIMR Effect ofWage Differentialon Desirability to
Migrate
PDIM PerceivedDesirability of the
US
UR UnemploymentRate
JMR Job to MigrantRatio
EMP Effect ofMigrant Presence
on Pressure for LawEnforcement
PEL Pressure toEnforce the Law
DIM Desirability ofUS
IIM InvestedIncome of Migrants
IMUS Income ofMigrants in US
WAGEI Wage Ratefor Illegal
Immigrants
EBHIM Effect ofBusiness Hiring
Illegals onPresseure for Law
Enforcement
JIM Jobs for IllegalMigrants
EIMP EmployedIllegal Migrant
Population
IBHIM
TDCIB Time toDetect and CloseIllegal Business
ATDC Avergae Timeto Detect and CloseIllegal Businesses
ELEDT Effect of LawEnforcement onDetection Time
EWBE Effect ofWages on Business
Expansion
NBE NormalBusiness Expansion
NIWUS NormalIllegal Wages in US
EJAIW Effect of JobAvailability on Illegal
Wages
JPB Jobs perBusiness that Hires
IIMPUS
ADS AverageDuration of Stay forTemporary Illegal
Migranys
IIMR
NFIMR
FAB Fraction ofMigrants Crossing
the Border
TPDIM Time toPerceive theDesirability of
Migration to the USEBC Effectiveness ofBorder Control on
Desirability toMigrate
NPEL NormalPressure for Law
Enforcement
IPRM
NFBR Net FractionalBirth Rate
NWR
WAGER Wage RatioMexican Wages toUS Illegal Wages
PNC50 LawEnforcement
Pressure to Catch50 % at Border
IPMPM
ADSPMP AverageDuration of Stay in
the PotentialMigrant Pool
FA Fraction of RuralMexicans that JoinPotential Migrants
NFA Normal Fractionof Rural Mexicansthat Join Potential
Migrants NWRM NormalWage in Rural
Mexico
EJARMW Effect ofJob Availability onMexican Wages
FPAW Fraction ofPopulation Able to
Work
JPBM Jobs perBusiness in Mexico
IBHRM
NFEBNINV
NGIRA NormalInvestment in LaborIntensice Industry
FIGI FractionalIncrease inGovernmentInvestment
TFIGI
FII
WHPY Work Hoursper Year
System Dynamics We employ System
Dynamics, whichprovides a formalframework for managingmul*ple interac*ngsubsystems, each ofwhich vary in *me
With system dynamicswe are able to quan*fyfeed-‐back, *me delays,and coupling betweensubsystem components
Focus is on Dynamic Complexity rather than Detail Complexity!
System Dynamics: IntegrativeModeling
Provides a frameworkfor integra*ng overthe broad range offactors influencingresource management
Recreation
MunicipalUseAgriculture
Surface Water
Ground WaterPopulation Growth
IndustryEnvironmentalHealth
Energy
Legal
DroughtWater Quality
Endangered Species
System Dynamics: InteractiveModeling
Broadlyaccessible PC based User friendly
interfaces Computa*ons in
seconds tominutes
Providesinterac*veenvironment forscenario tes*ng
Integration Across Disciplines
WATERSHEDHydrology
Socio-cultural
Economics
Ecology
Climate
Population
Downstream Integration
Ecologic Dynamics How will climate impact:
Vegeta*on type anddensity,
Wildfire frequency, Species diversity,
How is ecologyinfluenced by: Grazing, Hun*ng, Fuels/wildlife
management,
How do climate andwatershed managementinfluence: Stream flows, Groundwater recharge,
Hydrologic Dynamics How does water
availability influence: Irriga*on prac*ces, Upland grazing decisions,
How do irriga*onprac*ces influence theecology: Riparian habitat, Hydrograph modifica*on, Water quality
What steps can be takento improve wateravailability: Conserva*on, Coopera*ve
management,
Economic Dynamics What influences
landowner decisions: Drought, Neighbors, Crop value,
How are landownersinfluenced bydownstreamurbaniza*on: Land and water values, Job opportuni*es, Basic services,
What are adap*vemechanisms Outside jobs, Coopera*on, Conserva*on,
Socio-‐Cultural Dynamics What holds people to
the land: Family, Sense of community, Tradi*onal prac*ces,
What *es thecommunity together: Acequia , Community par*cipa*on, Shared labor,
How does urbaniza*onthreaten community: Loosing children off land, Changing demographics, Loss of water,
Model Development
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?
?
?
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
traditionalhouseholds
children
births
birth rate
move away
retire sell out
retirement rate
maturation rate
outsider households
outsider turnover
turnover rate
outsider inflow
displaced children
children returninghome
children willing toreturn
family gap
willingness to divideland for children
family gap
head livestock grazed
acres irrigated
traditionalhouseholds
acequia participation
current acequiaparticpation hours
need acequiaparticipation hours
hours to operateacequia
communityparticipationcurrent community
particpation hoursneed community
participation hours
hours to operatecommunity
mutualism
mutualism
economic gap
economic gap
mutualism
mutualism
outsider households
outsider hours
traditional hours
traditional hours
Surface Water Network
ElephantButte
Reservoir
Hero
n t
o
El
Va
do
Ab
iqu
iu t
o
Ch
am
ita
HeronReservoir
Willo
w C
reek
to H
ero
n
(See "Reservoirs" tab for actual model object)
El VadoReservoir
(See "Reservoirs" tab for actual model object)
AbiquiuReservoir
(See "Reservoirs" tab for actual model object)
El
Va
do
to
Ab
iqu
iu
Lo
ba
tos
to
Cerr
o
Cerr
o t
o T
ao
sJ
un
ctio
nB
rid
ge
Oto
wi t
o C
och
iti
CochitiReservoir
(See "Reservoirs" tab for actual model object)
Ta
os
Ju
nc
tio
nB
ridge t
oE
mb
ud
o
Sa
n F
eli
pe
to
Alb
uq
ue
rq
ue
Co
chit
i to
San
Fe
lip
e
Je
me
zR
ese
rvo
ir
Alb
uq
ue
rqu
e
to
Be
rn
ard
o
Sa
n
Aca
cia
to
Sa
n M
arc
ial
San
Marc
ial to
Ele
ph
an
t B
utt
e
(See "Reservoirs" tab for actual model object)
CaballoReservoir(See "Reservoirs" tab for actual model object)
Ele
ph
an
t B
utt
eto
Ca
ba
llo
Je
me
z
Pu
eb
lo
to
Re
se
rvo
i
Em
bu
do
to
Oto
wi
Bern
ard
o t
o
Sa
n
Ac
ac
ia
Lum
ped
ag
and
low
fl
ow
co
nveyance
sy
stem
s.
Modele
d
in
Ag
Module
Lum
ped
ag
and
low
fl
ow
co
nveyance
sy
stem
s.
Modele
d
in
Ag
Module
Lum
ped
ag
and
low
fl
ow
co
nveyance
sy
stem
s.
Modele
d
in
Ag
Module
(Right click on a variable and select "Go to Original" to see how it is defined.)
Co
lora
do
Op
era
tio
ns
(Specified for historic period, calculated basedon compact requirements during scenarioperiod)
El Vado Inflows
Heron Inflows
C2 Channel LossesC2 Reach Inflows
C3 Reach Inflows
C3 Channel Losses
C4 Channel Losses
C4 Reach Inflows
C4Ag Diversions
Copy of C4AgDiversions
C3Ag Diversions
Copy of Copy ofC3Ag Returns
Copy of Copy ofCopy of C4Ag
Returns
Copy of Copy 2 of
C4Ag Returns
C2 Inflows
C1Inflows
C1 Channel LossesAzotea Tunnel
Copy of Heron
Releases
Copy of HeronSeepage
Copy 2 of El VadoReleases
C3 Inflows
Chama Above
Abiquiu
Copy 2 of AbiquiuReleases
C4 Inflows
Chama Outflows
Chamita GageModeled
RG Lobatos
RG1 Reach Inflows
sw lbo2cro channellosses
RG1 Outflows
RG2 Inflows
RG2 Reach Inflowssw cro2tjb channel
losses
RG2 Outflows
RG3 Inflows
sw tjb2emb channellosses
RG3 Diversions
RG3 Outflows
RG3 Reach Inflows
RG3Ag Returns
RG4 Inflows
RG4 ChannelLosses
RG4 Diversions
sw emb2otwreturns
sw emb2otw reachinflows
RG4 Outflows
Copy 3 of CochitiReleases
RG5 Inflows
RG5 ChannelLossesRG5 Reach Inflows
Cochiti Inflows
J1 Channel Losses
sw jemez reservoirinflows
Jmz ReachDiversions
Jemez Ag Returns
Jemez HeadwaterInflows
Jmz Ungaged SW
sw jemez reservoiroutflow
RG6 ChannelLosses
RG6 Inflows
RG6 Outflows
RG6 ReachDiversions
RG6 Reach Inflows
Copy of RG6 Inflows
Copy 2 of RG6 AgReturns
RG7 Inflows
RG7 ChannelLosses
sw sfp2alb reach
diversions RG7 Reach Inflows
sw sfp2alb reach
returns
RG7 Outflows
sw alb2bdo agdiversions
RG8 ChannelLosses
RG8 Reach Inflows
sw alb2bdo returns
RG8 Inflows
RG8 Outflows
Copy of LFCC at
San Acacia
sw sa2sm agdiversions
sw bdo2sa agreturns
RG9 ChannelLosses
RG9 Inflows
Rio Puerco
RG9 Outflows
RG10 Outflows
RG10 Inflows
RG10 ChannelLosses RG10 Reach Inflows
RG11 Inflows
sw rg floodway flowinto elephant butte
RG11 ChannelLosses
sw elephant butteoutflow
Copy of RG11Inflows
sw flow into caballo
sw eb2cbo reach
inflows
Copy 2 of RG12Outflows
sw rg nr del norte
sw conejos nrmogote
sw los pinos nr ortiz
sw san antonio atortiz
507.78 ft_/s
66.38 MGD
0.00 ft_/s
585.43 ft_/s
0.00 ft_/s
57.98 MGD
7.80 MGD
Calibration
Extending Results Downstream
Middle Rio GrandeData availability:
• Dominant historical data set isfrom USGS stream flow gages:
“River reach”: gage location basedspatial unit of mass balance.
17 river reaches• 12 Rio Grande• 4 Rio Chama• 1 Jemez River
In addition to riverreaches, there are 7spatial mass balanceunits representingmajor reservoirs
Heron
El Vado
Abiquiu
CochitiJemez
Elephant Butte
Caballo
Middle Rio Grande
Strategy:• Use spatially explicit groundwater
models to calibrate spatially aggregatedversions in Powersim (system dynamicssoftware).
• Three spatially explicit models ofinterest: Espanola Basin (Frenzel 1995) Albuquerque Basin (McAda et al 2002) Socorro Basin (Shafike 2005)
Goal:• A rapid and physically based, dynamic
representation of sw-gw interactions inRio Grande river system coupleddirectly to dynamic surface watermodel.
New Mexico
Colorado
Elephant Buttereservoir
Albuquerque
Socorrogroundwaterbasin
Albuquerquegroundwater
basin
N
Map location
Espanolaground-waterbasin
Rio Grande
Rio Grande
Rio Chama
Jemez River
watersheddivide
