MODELLING AND DATA ANALYSISMODELLING AND DATA ANALYSIS

Transparencies 2003

EU-funded Urban Transport Research Project Results

www.eu-portal.net

TRANSPORT TEACHING MATERIAL

MODELLING AND DATA ANALYSIS

THE COMPONENTS OF MODELLING

MODELLING

Data collection and sharing

Develop-ment of model and modelling technique

Evaluating and validation of the model

The use and evaluation of the modelling results

MODELLING AND DATA ANALYSIS

SCREENSHOT FROM STREAMS PRESENTATION TOOL (STREAMS: Final Report for Publication)

Year Mode Flow Legend Comparison TREE TIFF-File

1994 Rail Road Business Container 1h 4h Years Flows No comp. Draw Other city

2002 Air Leisure Bulk 2h 8h Modes 2 cases Remove Exit

Travel times to Bologna1994, rail Business trips

MODELLING AND DATA ANALYSIS

STREAMS MODEL RESULTS (STREAMS: Final Report for Publication)

Number of passenger trips (‘000 per day) by flow type, 1994 and 2020

Flow Group 1994 2020 % change

Short trips

Commuting and business trips, no car available 21230 7730,4 -63,6

Commuting and business trips, part car available 76777,8 50136,6 -34,7

Commuting and business trips, full car available 110683 165050,5 49.1

Children, all trips all car availability levels 104460,9 98552,5 -5,7

Shopping, personal business, education, VFR16, day trip – no car available

142215,5 71061,1 -50,0

Shopping, personal business, education, VFR, day trip – part car available

427094,3 525188,1 23,0

Shopping, personal business, education, VFR, day trip – part car available

132146,7 214369,5 62,2

MODELLING AND DATA ANALYSIS

STREAMS MODEL RESULTS (STREAMS: Final Report for Publication)

Flow Group 1994 2020 % change

Long trips

20803,9VFR, day trip, no car available 5030,9 2476,1 -50,8

VFR, day trip, Part & full car available 20803,9 27624,4 32,8

Charter holiday 86,7 91,1 5,1

Business and commuting- all car availability levels

15259,1 16298,4 6,8

International independent holiday no car available

74,4 70,9 -4,8

International independent holiday-part & full car available

656,7 1708,0 160,1

Domestic holiday - no car available 359,1 339,8 -5,4

Domestic holiday - part & full car available 2532,3 6167,6 143,6

TOTAL 1059411,3 1186865,0 12,0

MODELLING AND DATA ANALYSIS

ARCHITECTURE CHOICE ACCORDING TO THE OBJECTIVES OF THE DIRECT PROJECT(DIRECT, Final Summary Report)

Application field Chosen architecture

Local database

Distributed objects architecture

Intranet/internet architecture

Transport Planning Best choice Bad choice Good choice if a light product is selected (ex Oracle WebDB)

Traffic Manage-

ment

Traffic information1

(aggregated demand)

Bad choice Best choice Good choice, but implies a very powerful configuration

Traveller infomation2

Trip planning3 (individual demand)

Difficult to publish the data, low scalability

Good choice, but implies high development costs, and a web interface

Best choice

MODELLING AND DATA ANALYSIS

ESTEEM VALIDATION CHAINS (ESTEEM, Final Report)

Scenarios:A ReferenceB1 New transport

supplyB2 Gates of Rome

Scenarios:• Traffic management • Air Quality 2005• traffic reduction Act 1998

• mixed urban dev.• Chelsea Hackney lime

ROME BRUSSELS LYON LONDON

ProjectO/D matrixes

Transport modelEMME2

Emission model TEE

Dispersion modelADMS Urban

Emission modelLANES

Dispersion modelCAL 3qhc

ADMS Urban

Started Preference Surveys•Modal choice•Residencial choice

Started Preference Surveys•Residencial choice

RER Scenarios:• Excluding land market

• Including land market

Scenarios:• Reference • Transport policy• Transport and land use policy

Transport modelSATURN

Transport & land

use modelTRANUS