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Modelling employment demand and supply in the resources sector Australian Workforce and Productivity Agency

5 November 2013

Resources sector skill needs

Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation. Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, a UK private company limited by guarantee, and its network of member firms, each of which is a legally separate and independent entity. Please see www.deloitte.com/au/about for a detailed description of the legal structure of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited and its member firms. © 2013 Deloitte Access Economics Pty Ltd

Contents Glossary ..................................................................................................................................... i

Executive Summary .................................................................................................................... i

1 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 1

1.1 Modelling approach .......................................................................................................... 1

1.2 Growth scenarios .............................................................................................................. 3

1.3 Structure of the report ...................................................................................................... 4

2 The economic backdrop .................................................................................................. 5

2.1 Global economic conditions .............................................................................................. 5

2.2 Commodity prices ............................................................................................................. 6

2.3 Productivity trends.......................................................................................................... 13

3 The outlook for resources investment ........................................................................... 17

3.1 Broad trends ................................................................................................................... 17

3.2 Major projects ................................................................................................................ 18

4 Resources sector demand for labour ............................................................................. 26

4.1 Recent trends ................................................................................................................. 26

4.2 Resources sector demand by industry sector ................................................................... 28

4.3 Resources sector demand by region ................................................................................ 32

5 Characteristics of future labour demand ....................................................................... 37

5.1 Resources sector demand by occupation ......................................................................... 37

5.2 Replacement demand ..................................................................................................... 41

5.3 Resources sector demand by post-school qualification .................................................... 43

5.4 Resources sector demand by project phasing .................................................................. 53

6 Projected skills (post-school qualifications) supply ........................................................ 55

7 Supply-demand comparison .......................................................................................... 64

7.1 Supply less demand (total qualifications) ......................................................................... 64

7.2 Supply less demand (by qualification) .............................................................................. 66

7.3 Supply less demand (by broad occupation) ...................................................................... 69

7.4 Supply less demand (by skilled persons) .......................................................................... 72

8 Conclusions ................................................................................................................... 82

Appendix A : Forecast methodology ........................................................................................ 84

Appendix B : Detailed project listing ........................................................................................ 96

Appendix C : Additional forecast tables ................................................................................. 117

Appendix D : Detailed occupational forecasts........................................................................ 128

Limitation of our work ............................................................................................................. 130

Deloitte Access Economics

Charts Chart 2.1 : Share of global output, selected major economies .................................................. 5

Chart 2.2 :Australia’s major export commodities ....................................................................... 7

Chart 2.3 : Iron ore prices .......................................................................................................... 8

Chart 2.4 : Gold prices ............................................................................................................... 9

Chart 2.5 : Oil prices ................................................................................................................ 10

Chart 2.6 : Coking coal price ................................................................................................... 11

Chart 2.7 Thermal coal price ................................................................................................... 11

Chart 2.8 : Australia’s terms of trade index ............................................................................. 12

Chart 2.9 : Resources sector productivity index level over time ............................................... 13

Chart 2.10 : Resources sector labour productivity, history and forecasts ................................. 14

Chart 2.11 : Labour productivity in the oil and gas sector ....................................................... 15

Chart 3.1 : Profile of major project capital expenditure per annum by scenario, $billion ......... 23

Chart 3.2 : Profile of major project capital expenditure, by commodity, base case, $billion ..... 23

Chart 3.3 : Timeline of LNG projects, Australia ........................................................................ 25

Chart 4.1 : Projected employment growth by scenario, resources project construction ........... 30

Chart 4.2 : Projected employment growth by scenario, mining operations .............................. 31

Chart 4.3 : Projected employment growth by scenario, oil and gas extraction / supply ............ 31

Chart 4.4 : Projected employment growth by major mining region, base case ......................... 32

Chart A.2 : Propensity to hold a post-school qualification by component of net migration ...... 94

Chart B.1 : Estimated schedule of major projects, Kimberley (WA), 2013-2018........................ 96

Chart B.2 : Estimated schedule of major projects, Pilbara (WA), 2013-2018 ............................ 97

Chart B.3 : Estimated schedule of major projects, Mid-West (WA), 2013-2018 ........................ 98

Chart B.4 : Estimated schedule of major projects, Goldfields (WA), 2013-2018........................ 98

Chart B.5 : Estimated schedule of major projects, Balance of WA, 2013-2018 ......................... 99

Chart B.6 : Estimated schedule of major projects, Mackay (QLD), 2013-2018 .......................... 99

Chart B.7 : Estimated schedule of major projects, Fitzroy (QLD), 2013-2018 .......................... 100

Chart B.8 : Estimated schedule of major projects, Darling Downs (QLD), 2013-2018 .............. 100

Chart B.9 : Estimated schedule of major projects, Balance of QLD, 2013-2018 ...................... 101

Chart B.10 : Estimated schedule of major projects, Hunter (NSW), 2013-2018 ...................... 101

Chart B.11 : Estimated schedule of major projects, Balance of NSW, 2013-2018 ................... 102

Chart B.12 : Estimated schedule of major projects, Outback-North East (SA), 2013-2018 ...... 102

Chart B.13 : Estimated schedule of major projects, Balance of SA, 2013-2018 ....................... 102


Chart B.14 : Estimated schedule of major projects, Victoria, 2013-2018 ................................ 103

Chart B.15 : Estimated schedule of major projects, Tasmania, 2013-2018 ............................. 103

Chart B.16 : Estimated schedule of major projects, Northern Territory, 2013-2018 ............... 103

Tables Table 1.1 : Industry structure .................................................................................................... 2

Table 1.2 : Growth scenario parameters – major projects ......................................................... 4

Table 2.1 : Productivity growth across all sectors ................................................................... 16

Table 3.1 : Summary of major investment projects by category, $m ........................................ 19

Table 3.2 : Committed projects by category, cost ($m) and region, 2013 ................................. 20

Table 4.1 : Estimated employment level, resources project construction................................. 26

Table 4.2 : Estimated employment level, mining operations .................................................... 27

Table 4.3 : Estimated share of mining operations employment by commodity ........................ 27

Table 4.4 : Estimated employment level, oil and gas extraction / supply.................................. 28

Table 4.5 : Projected employment level by industry sector – base case ................................... 29

Table 4.6 : Projected employment level by industry sector – high growth ............................... 29

Table 4.7 : Projected employment level by industry sector – low growth ................................ 30

Table 4.8 : Projected employment level by region – all sectors, base case .............................. 33

Table 4.9 : Projected employment level by region – all sectors, high growth ........................... 34

Table 4.10 : Projected employment level by region – all sectors, low growth .......................... 36

Table 5.1 : Projected employment level by occupation – all sectors, Australia, base case ........ 38

Table 5.2 : Projected employment level by occupation – all sectors, Australia, high growth.... 38

Table 5.3 : Projected employment level by occupation – all sectors, Australia, low growth ..... 39

Table 5.4 : Top five detailed occupations by sector, base case, employment level 2013 and 2018 40

Table 5.5 : Key processing and transport occupations, employment level 2013 ...................... 41

Table 5.6 : Key processing and transport occupations, employment level 2018, base case ..... 41

Table 5.7 : Projected net replacement rate by occupation ....................................................... 42

Table 5.8 : Projected net replacement rates by sector ............................................................. 42

Table 5.9 : Share of occupational employment by highest level qualification (%) – all sectors, 2013 43

Table 5.10 : Level of occupational employment by highest level qualification – all sectors, 201344

Table 5.11 : Level of occupational employment by highest level qualification – all sectors, 2018, base case ................................................................................................................................ 45


Table 5.12 : Level of occupational employment by highest level qualification – all sectors, 2018, high growth ............................................................................................................................ 45

Table 5.13 : Level of occupational employment by highest level qualification – all sectors, 2018, low growth ............................................................................................................................. 46

Table 5.14 Additional qualifications required by those employed by scenario and broad qualification – Resources project construction ........................................................................ 47

Table 5.15 Additional qualifications required by those employed by scenario and broad qualification – Mining operations ............................................................................................ 48

Table 5.16 Additional qualifications required by those employed by scenario and broad qualification – Oil and gas extraction / supply ......................................................................... 49

Table 5.17 : Additional qualifications required by those employed by scenario and broad occupation – Resources project construction .......................................................................... 50

Table 5.18 : Additional qualifications required by those employed by scenario and broad occupation – Mining operations .............................................................................................. 51

Table 5.19 : Additional qualifications required by those employed by scenario and broad occupation – Oil and gas extraction / supply ........................................................................... 52

Table 5.20 : Exploration / planning activities, employment by broad occupation ..................... 53

Table 7.1 : Projected qualification supply-demand comparison by scenario – all sectors ......... 64

Table 7.2 : Projected qualification supply-demand comparison by scenario – Resources project construction............................................................................................................................ 65

Table 7.3 : Projected qualification supply-demand comparison by scenario – Mining operations66

Table 7.4 : Projected qualification supply-demand comparison by scenario – Oil and gas extraction / supply .................................................................................................................. 66

Table 7.5 : Projected qualification supply-demand comparison by scenario and broad qualification – Resources project construction ........................................................................ 67

Table 7.6 : Projected qualification supply-demand comparison by scenario and broad qualification – Mining operations ............................................................................................ 68

Table 7.7 : Projected qualification supply-demand comparison by scenario and broad qualification – Oil and gas extraction / supply ......................................................................... 69

Table 7.8 : Projected qualification supply-demand comparison by scenario and broad occupation, Resources project construction ............................................................................ 70

Table 7.9 : Projected qualification supply-demand comparison by scenario and broad occupation, Mining operations................................................................................................ 71

Table 7.10 : : Projected qualification supply-demand comparison by scenario and broad occupation, Oil and gas extraction / supply ............................................................................. 72

Table 7.11 : Projected qualification supply-demand comparison by scenario and broad qualification – Resources project construction - number of people ......................................... 73

Table 7.12 : Projected qualification supply-demand comparison by scenario and broad occupation, Resources project construction - number of people ............................................. 74


Table 7.13 : Projected qualification supply-demand comparison by scenario and broad qualification – Mining operations - number of people ............................................................. 75

Table 7.14 : Projected qualification supply-demand comparison by scenario and broad occupation, Mining operations - number of people ................................................................. 76

Table 7.15 : Projected qualification supply-demand comparison by scenario and broad qualification – Oil and gas extraction / supply – number of people .......................................... 77

Table 7.16 : Projected qualification supply-demand comparison by scenario and broad occupation - Oil and gas extraction / supply - number of people ............................................. 78

Table 7.17 : Projected qualification supply-demand comparison by scenario, Resources project construction - number of people (top ten detailed occupations) ............................................. 79

Table 7.18 : Projected qualification supply-demand comparison by scenario, Mining operations - number of people (top ten detailed occupations) ................................................................. 80

Table 7.19 : Projected qualification supply-demand comparison by scenario, Oil and gas extraction / supply - number of people (top ten detailed occupations) ................................... 81

Table A.2 : Industry structure .................................................................................................. 85

Table A.3 : Migrant qualification profile, share of migrants with a qualification ....................... 95

Table B.1 : Full major project listing ...................................................................................... 103

Table C.1 : Projected employment level by region – Resources project construction, base case117

Table C.2 : Projected employment level by region – Mining operations, base case ................ 117

Table C.3 :Projected employment level by region – Oil and gas extraction / supply, base case118

Table C.4 : Projected employment level by region – Resources project construction, High growth .................................................................................................................................. 119

Table C.5 : Projected employment level by region – Mining operations, high growth ............ 119

Table C.6 :Projected employment level by region – Oil and gas extraction / supply, high growth120

Table C.7 : Projected employment level by region – Resources project construction, low growth121

Table C.8 : Projected employment level by region – Mining operations, low growth ............. 121

Table C.9 :Projected employment level by region – Oil and gas extraction / supply, low growth122

Table C.10 : Projected employment level (‘000) by occupation – Resources project construction, Australia, Base case ......................................................................................... 123

Table C.11 : Projected employment level (‘000) by occupation – Resources project construction, Australia, High growth ..................................................................................... 123

Table C.12 : Projected employment level (‘000) by occupation – Resource projects construction, Australia, Low growth ...................................................................................... 124

Table C.13 : Projected employment level (‘000) by occupation – Mining operations, Australia, Base case .............................................................................................................................. 124

Table C.14 : Projected employment level (‘000) by occupation – Mining operations, Australia, High growth .......................................................................................................................... 125

Table C.15 : Projected employment level (‘000) by occupation – Mining operations, Australia, Low growth ........................................................................................................................... 125


Table C.16 : Projected employment level (‘000) by occupation – Oil and gas extraction / supply, Australia, Base case .............................................................................................................. 126

Table C.17 : Projected employment level (‘000) by occupation – Oil and gas extraction / supply, Australia, High growth .......................................................................................................... 126

Table C.18 : Projected employment level (‘000) by occupation – Oil and gas extraction / supply, Australia, Low growth ........................................................................................................... 127

Table D.1 : Projected employment level by detailed occupation by scenario and sector ........ 128

Table D.2 : Projected total qualifications by detailed occupation by scenario and sector ...... 128

Table D.3 : Projected additional qualifications required by detailed occupation by scenario and sector 128

Table D.4 : Projected qualifications due to replacement demand by detailed occupation by scenario and sector ............................................................................................................... 128

Table D.5 : Projected net replacement rate (%) by detailed occupation ................................ 128

Table D.6 : Domestic student supply, Resources project construction .................................. 128

Table D.7 : Domestic student supply, Mining operations ...................................................... 128

Table D.8 : Domestic student supply, oil and gas extraction and supply ................................ 128

Table D.9 : Net overseas migration supply, Resources project construction .......................... 128

Table D.10 : Net overseas migration supply, mining operations ............................................ 128

Table D.11 : Net overseas migration supply, oil and gas extraction / supply.......................... 128

Table D.12 : Total additional supply, Resources project construction .................................... 128

Table D.13 : Total additional supply, mining operations........................................................ 128

Table D.14 : Total additional supply, oil and gas extraction / supply ..................................... 128

Table D.15 : Exploration / Planning employment, Census 2011............................................. 129

Table D.16 : Supply less demand (qualifications) by detailed occupation by scenario and sector129

Table D.17 : Supply less demand (skilled persons) by detailed occupation by scenario and sector 129


Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation. Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, a UK private company limited by guarantee, and its network of member firms, each of which is a legally separate and independent entity. Please see www.deloitte.com/au/about for a detailed description of the legal structure of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited and its member firms. © 2013 Deloitte Access Economics Pty Ltd

Glossary ABS Australian Bureau of Statistics

ANZSCO Australian and New Zealand Standard Classification of Occupations

ANZSIC Australian and New Zealand Standard Industrial Classification

AWPA Australian Workforce and Productivity Agency

BREE Bureau of Resource and Energy Economics

CGE Computable General Equilibrium

CSG Coal Seam Gas

FIFO Fly in Fly out

FLNG Floating Liquefied Natural Gas

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GFC Global Financial Crisis

IMF International Monetary Fund

LNG Liquefied Natural Gas

NCVER National Centre for Vocational Education Research

NRSET National Resources Sector Employment Taskforce

i


Executive Summary This report provides modelling input to the Australian Workforce and Productivity Agency’s (AWPA’s) annual report on skill needs in Australia’s resources sector. The labour force projections used within this report focus solely on the resources sector within Australia. The modelling was conducted between July and September 2013, with the April 2013 listing of Resources and Energy Major Projects from the Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE) a key input.

Deloitte Access Economics’ modelling methodology brings together modelling capabilities in relation to skills demand and supply employed in previous work for AWPA (Economic modelling of skills demand and supply, 2012) with the firm’s Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling competency, DAE-RGEM. By linking these two capabilities, the labour market impact of major resources projects around Australia can be assessed within a broad, economy-wide framework.

An overview of the modelling approach is provided in Chapter 1, and a more detailed discussion can be found in Appendix A.

Key dimensions of the task

The requirement for this report is to develop projections for employment levels and growth to 2018 across three components of the resources sector:

Resources project construction (with these dominated by major projects listed by the BREE);

Mining operations (excluding Oil and Gas); and,

Oil and Gas extraction/Oil and Gas supply operations.

Note that references to ‘all sectors’ in this report is the sum of the sectors of direct relevance to the resources sector, as shown above.

Deloitte Access Economics has identified key regions across Australia where mining is a major industry and employs a large share of the resident population. Major mining regions in Western Australia are the regions of the Pilbara, the Kimberley, and the Goldfields and Mid-West. In Queensland, the regions of Mackay, Fitzroy and the Darling Downs – Maranoa are deemed as major mining regions, while in New South Wales and South Australia the Hunter (NSW) and Outback-North East (SA) regions respectively are considered as the only major mining regions in the States.

Labour demand for the resources sector in this report is projected on the basis of three growth scenarios.

These relate primarily to the proportion of major projects within the current BREE listing which are assumed to proceed over time. The growth scenarios also relate to different projected growth paths for commodity prices, which will have an influence over the base level of employment in mining operations and oil and gas extraction (that which is not directly related to the approval of new projects).

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These labour demand forecasts in terms of employment and qualifications are then compared to the expected supply of skills into the resources sector, through the domestic training system and via net international migration.

The outlook for resources investment

Mining (resources) investment was the equivalent of 7.7% of Australia’s GDP at the end of 2012, a stunning rise from 1.5% of GDP a decade ago. However, with commodity prices declining there is definite pressure on the current pipeline of projects. BREE believe that $150 billion of high value projects at the feasibility stage have been delayed or cancelled since April 2012.

While on some measures (such as new project commencements) the peak has already been seen, there still continues to be a very large investment pipeline at present, and the long construction periods associated with resources investment mean that many of the current projects underway will continue to be in their construction phase for some time yet.

The key source of major project information used for this report is the BREE “Resources and Energy Major Projects” database for 2013.

As at 2013 and as utilised for this report, that database showed a total of $264.5 billion of projects at the committed stage, a further $242.8 billion of projects at the feasibility stage, and $137.1 billion of projects at the publicly announced stage.

For the purposes of this study, the projects listed in the BREE listing have been provided with indicative timelines for their development and completion. These projects are modelled according to the assumed proportion of projects which will proceed for each stage of development.

Those assumptions applied to the BREE data result in a profile for major project expenditure which is higher in the short term under the base case and high growth scenarios, with a plateau under the low growth scenario. All scenarios then see a notable drop in capital expenditure per annum from 2015 to 2018.

A key feature of the resources investment boom in Australia has been the massive amount of investment directed into the LNG sector. A transition is approaching with the bulk of those investment projects being currently underway and due for completion in the next two years, with far less in the pipeline to potentially replace them.

Projected employment levels

For employment levels related to resources project construction, Table i shows some sizeable shifts over the projection period. The bulk of major oil and gas projects currently underway are expected to still be under construction over much of 2014 and 2015. In addition, other major projects are also expected to see a ramp-up in construction activity, such that employment associated with resources project construction lifts under the base case scenario from 2013 to 2014 and still maintains a high level in 2015. The low growth scenario, which is more in line with Federal Treasury projections for investment, suggests plateauing of employment levels in resources project construction in 2014.

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Between 2014 and 2018 all scenarios see sharp drops in employment associated with resources project construction, consistent with the bulk of major projects currently underway being completed, and a relative dearth of new projects coming on board to replace them.

Employment growth in mining operations has been strong up until 2012, and has consolidated in 2013. The future path of commodity prices will play an important role in shaping future growth for the Australian economy, and specifically demand for labour within mining operations. Looking forward, the level of employment in mining operations by 2018 is expected to be 254,260 under the base case, which amounts to a 7.4% increase from the estimated 2013 employment level.

Employment in the oil and gas extraction and supply sector has experienced the most robust growth since 2010 of the three sectors examined. This trend is expected to continue as many of the major LNG projects under construction move into their production phase. The expectation going forward is that this sector should experience average employment growth of approximately 9.4% annually to 2018. The base case yields an estimate of 61,212 persons employed in 2018, which is a 57% increase on the estimated 2013 employment level, or an additional 22,269 workers. This growth is even more robust under the high growth scenario, where an additional 25,948 workers are expected by 2018. The low growth scenario yields a more conservative estimate, yet would still see 16,932 additional workers by 2018, or a 43% increase from the 2013 levels.

Table i: Projected employment level by industry sector – base case

Year Resources project

construction Mining operations

Oil and gas extraction / supply

Total

2013 85,819 236,690 38,943 361,452

2014 118,825 238,537 44,087 401,449

2015 107,710 243,525 49,908 401,143

2016 70,903 249,111 55,349 375,363

2017 49,325 252,456 58,666 360,448

2018 28,857 254,260 61,212 344,328

Source: Deloitte Access Economics

Chart i below displays the expected change in employment between 2013 and 2018 in the major mining regions under the base case. Projected employment gains over that time are expected to be strongest in the Pilbara region of WA, and the Darling Downs and Mackay regions of Queensland. Across all regions there is a transition away from construction jobs over time towards operational jobs.

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Chart i: Projected employment growth by major mining region, base case


By broad occupation by 2018, the occupational mix is expected to shift in favour of those who are in greater demand during the operational phase of resources projects. That sees solid employment growth expected for the broad professionals and managers group, with employment declines for trades workers, machinery operators, and particularly for labourers.

That said, under the base case and high growth scenarios the most well represented broad occupational group in 2018 still remains technicians and trades workers, followed by machinery operators and drivers, while in the low growth scenario these positions are reversed.

Qualifications needs and supply

The estimates of additional qualifications required over time represent the change in the stock of total qualifications held by those employed, and also factor in the additional demand for qualifications created by individual with qualifications that leave the workforce (replacement demand).

The rate of additional qualifications demanded varies considerably by sector and by scenario, with qualifications associated with BREE major projects falling significantly over time, though at a greater rate under the low growth scenario and at a lesser rate and later under the high growth scenario.

-6,000

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

Oil and gas extraction / supply Mining operations Resource projects construction Total

Change in number of employed persons, 2013 to 2018

v


Additional demand growth is much stronger for the mining operations and oil and gas extraction and supply sectors, as past investment translates into additional production capacity.

Generally, qualifications for those in the managers and professionals occupations show the greatest additional demand over time.

Projections are also developed for the supply of skills into the resources sector. These take into account the completion of qualifications through the domestic training system, as well as the contribution to qualifications which comes from net international migration.

The supply-demand comparison is done by comparing the flow of additional qualifications demanded with the flow of additional qualifications supplied over a year. Table ii shows the total flow of qualifications for all sectors by scenario. The data shows additional qualification supply and demand, within a given year.

There are notable differences in the supply-demand comparison for the three individual sectors. Notably, the projections suggest a general undersupply of qualifications into the mining operations and oil and gas extraction / supply industries. On the other hand, activity associated with the construction of major projects from the BREE database is highly variable.

For all industries, the divergence between the supply and demand for qualifications is greatest under the high growth scenario, with the latter showing a general under supply of qualifications in the earlier years. However, for all scenarios over time the fall in qualifications demand from major project construction more than offsets the additional demand from the mining operations and oil and gas extraction / supply sectors over time.

Technical and trades occupations as well as machinery operators and drivers show a significant over supply of qualifications in the major projects construction sector post 2015 as many of the current agenda of major resource related construction projects move into the production phase.

The transition implies a changing occupational mix within the workforce, suggesting that many of the trades where significant numbers of people have been employed during the construction phase will no longer be in such demand. However, those trades may still see high levels of demand from other sectors of the economy (for some trades there will be needs in the production side of major projects, while there will also be employment demands from other parts of the economy not considered for this project). That said, there may be a range of challenges involved to transition trades workers from resources project construction into other parts of the resources sector or broader economy.

Mining operations generally shows a shortage of managers and technical and trades workers, though the picture across other broad occupations is more mixed over time. Professionals for example are seen as marginally undersupplied from 2014 to 2016 across the high and base case scenarios, but adequately supplied in 2018 in all scenarios and throughout the low growth scenario.

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For oil and gas extraction and supply, there is projected to be a more notable shortfall of professionals across all scenarios and all years. That is also true for technical and trades occupations, though to a much smaller extent.

Table ii: Projected qualification supply-demand comparison by scenario – all sectors

Resources project construction

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Base case

Total demand 33,496 -6,755 -32,052 -19,147 -19,696 Total supply 4,005 4,074 4,140 4,204 4,265

Balance (supply less demand) -29,491 10,829 36,192 23,351 23,961

High growth

Total demand 56,462 4,395 -34,597 -22,838 -26,193 Total supply 4,005 4,074 4,140 4,204 4,265

Balance (supply less demand) -52,457 -321 38,737 27,042 30,458

Low growth

Total demand 438 -10,746 -29,100 -16,400 -12,480 Total supply 4,005 4,074 4,140 4,204 4,265

Balance (supply less demand) 3,567 14,820 33,240 20,604 16,745

Mining operations

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Base case

Total demand 8,832 12,246 13,162 11,135 9,734 Total supply 8,799 8,951 9,111 9,263 9,413

Balance (supply less demand) -33 -3,295 -4,051 -1,872 -321

High growth


Balance (supply less demand) 152 -5,301 -6,122 -3,587 -1,710

Low growth


Balance (supply less demand) 167 -521 -1,722 -18 1,316


2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Base case


Balance (supply less demand) -6,588 -7,677 -7,472 -5,026 -4,191

High growth



Low growth




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Data caveats

This report provides an estimate of employment levels and related qualification requirements over the next five years for three specific components of the resources sector (resources project construction, mining operations, and oil and gas extraction/supply).

Outside the scope of this report are any estimates of the broader economic impact of individual projects or groups of projects, or any estimates of resource related activity outside the three key sectors of interest.

The primary information source driving the projected employment profile changes over the coming years is information on major projects reported by BREE, along with assumptions on the proportion of projects seen as advancing across the three scenarios examined. Varying those assumptions can make a notable difference to the projected employment profile.

The demand projections are also based on estimated employment levels for 2013, including by region, drawn from ABS Census and labour force survey information, where there can be a high degree of sampling variability and which are subject to revision.

The estimates of the future supply of skills should be seen as reflecting additional skills to the Australian economy. They do not take account of any redistribution of existing skills (such as someone who already has relevant skills moving from one occupation to another).

The link between the level of expected qualification supply by qualification type and occupation, to the expected industry of employment should be seen as indicative. It is based on historic observed relationships, applying shares of occupational employment from the 2011 Census. We note however that those shares may change in the future, depending on the relative state of demand in the reosurces sector and other sectors.

The use of this supply benchmark, compared with projections of qualification demand in this report, provide an indication of the significance of those future changes.

Conclusions

Understanding the nation’s future skill needs involves a combination of underlying structural economic and demographic trends, balanced against a sometimes volatile economic cycle. The latter is a feature of the Australian economy at present, and particularly for the resources sector, with a notable downturn in major project construction likely to be seen over the coming years.

The labour force modelling projections shown in this report will assist in planning for future labour force needs, in concert with skills development and migration strategies.

The modelling results show quite different expectations for employment requirements and skill needs across the sector in coming years, including:

A highly volatile profile associated with resources project construction, which is expected to see employment levels lift at first and then contract in coming years. This drives an overall contraction in resources sector employment between now and 2018 in all scenarios.

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Solid growth for mining operations employment in the base case as projects increasingly move into production.

Very strong growth for oil and gas extraction/supply employment in all scenarios, with significant capacity to be delivered in the coming years.

There is a significant people and qualification need associated with the latter two components, and the steady increase linked to somewhat predictable timetables for production commencement from major projects lends this to supply from domestic skill development. Indicative supply projections, which include a component stemming from net international migration, suggest there may be shortfalls in supply for mining operations and oil and gas extraction/supply in the coming years.

On the other hand, when employment associated with BREE major projects turns down notably, there will be a considerable over-supply of skills for this component, both from no vacancies for new graduates coming into the system, and also as existing workers need to leave the sector with employment declining.

Being able to successfully transition some of these individuals to the required operational roles could go a long way to overcoming any shortage of skills in those roles, though in many cases there may be significant challenges in engineering such a transition.

David Rumbens

Director Deloitte Access Economics


1


1 Introduction The Australian Workforce and Productivity Agency (AWPA) prepares an annual report on skill needs in Australia’s resources sector in response to recommendation 1.3 of the Australian Government’s response to the National Resources Sector Employment Taskforce (NRSET) 2010 report. For the current report AWPA has contracted Deloitte Access Economics to assist in determining the demand for and supply of additional labour and skills for the resources sector under a series of different future economic scenarios.

1.1 Modelling approach Deloitte Access Economics’ modelling methodology brings together modelling capabilities in relation to skills demand and supply employed in previous work for AWPA (Economic modelling of skills demand and supply, 2012) with the firm’s Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling competency, DAE-RGEM. By linking these two capabilities, the labour market impact of major resources projects around Australia can be assessed within a broad, economy-wide framework.

Figure 1.1 outlines the modelling structure used by Deloitte Access Economics. In brief, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and the April 2013 BREE major project listing is used to define the historical employment performance of the resources sector and establish defined growth scenarios to 2018 (base case, high growth and low growth).

Baseline employment projections (excluding the impact of major resources projects) define the existing structure of the resources industry and the potential employment growth in the absence of additional projects under each of the base case, high growth and low growth scenarios being considered. The difference in the base employment path between the three scenarios is driven by different profiles for commodity prices.

The employment impact of major resources projects under each of the base case, high growth and low growth scenarios is then assessed using DAE-RGEM based on BREE major project information. This modelling defines the changes in resources construction employment from 2013 and 2018, and calibrates the employment associated with the operations of major projects which are completed over the period from 2013 to 2018.

The addition of net replacement demand completes the demand modelling.

Separate skills supply modelling is undertaken concurrently, examining the expected supply of skills from domestic graduates and net international migration. This is then combined with projections of skill requirements from labour demand, enabling a comparison of skills supply and demand to be assessed for the resources sector.


2


Figure 1.1: Modelling structure

1.1.1 Industry structure


Resources project construction (with the dominant element of this defined by BREE major projects);


Oil and Gas extraction/Oil and Gas supply operations

For modelling purposes, it is necessary to map these industry descriptions to the definitions captured within the ANZSIC structure. Table 1.1 below shows Deloitte Access Economics’ concordance between the industry descriptions above and the ANZSIC structure.

Table 1.1: Industry structure

AWPA industry Corresponding ANZSIC industry

Resources project construction Comprises components of 31 - Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction and 32 – Construction services

Mining operations B – Mining, less 07 – Oil and Gas Extraction


07 – Oil and Gas Extraction

and 27 – Gas supply

Historical ABS employment data and BREE project data.

Defined scenarios for

base case, high and low

growth.

Baseline employment projections excluding the impact of major resources projects

(Operation)

Employment impact of major resources

projects (Construction and operation)

Employment projections including the impact of projects

Skills supply forecasts

Map CGE employment

impact to ANZSIC and ANZSCO

structure

Comparison of supply and

demand

Retirements and other factors influencing

required net replacement


3


Note that references to ‘all sectors’ in this report is the sum of the sectors of direct relevance to the resources sector, as shown in the table above.

For each of the three industry sectors above, projected employment levels are also developed for occupations within those sectors, both at the 1-digit ANZSCO level, and at the more detailed 4-digit ANZSCO level.

1.1.2 Regional structure

Deloitte Access Economics has identified key regions across Australia where mining is a major industry and employs a large share of the resident population. These regions are a central focus of the analysis, with other regions within a particular State classed as a ‘rest of State’ region.

Major mining regions in Western Australia are the regions of the Pilbara, the Kimberley, and the Goldfields and Mid-West. In Queensland, the regions of Mackay, Fitzroy and the Darling Downs – Maranoa are deemed as major mining regions, while in New South Wales and South Australia the Hunter (NSW) and Outback-North East (SA) regions respectively are considered as the only major mining regions in the States.

1.2 Growth scenarios

Labour demand for the resources sector in this report is projected on the basis of three growth scenarios.

These relate primarily to the proportion of major projects within the current BREE listing which are assumed to proceed over time. The growth scenarios also relate to different projected growth paths for commodity prices, which will have an influence over the base level of employment in mining operations and oil and gas extraction (that which is not directly related to the approval of new projects).

The assumed parameters in relation to major projects for the growth scenarios are provided in Table 1.2 below. The “Committed” stage of investment refers to all projects that have passed all approvals and final investment decisions, and, in most case have already begun construction. The “Feasibility” stage refers to the project development cycle where the initial feasibility study for a project has been completed and the results support further development. Finally, the “Publicly announced” stage refers to projects at the very early stage of planning (i.e. undertaking their first pre-feasibility study) (BREE, 2013)1.

A summary discussion of major projects is provided in Chapter 3.

1 BREE (2013) Resource and Energy Major Projects April 2013.


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Table 1.2: Growth scenario parameters – major projects

Scenario Assumed proportion of projects by development stage

High growth scenario Committed stage: 100%

Feasibility stage: 100%

Publicly announced stage: 75%

Base case scenario Committed stage: 100%



Low growth scenario Committed stage: 75%



Source: AWPA

1.3 Structure of the report

The remainder of this report is structured as follows:

Chapter 2 discusses the current economic backdrop, the outlook for commodity prices and the impact that may have on employment levels.

Chapter 3 focuses on the outlook for resources investment, both in aggregate terms and as reported in the BREE listing of major projects.

Chapter 4 profiles expected employment in the resources sector for each of the scenarios by relevant industry sector and by region.

Chapter 5 provides further dimensions to the expected employment outlook, detailing expected employment by occupation, post-school qualification and replacement demand.

Chapter 6 looks at likely skills supply which may be utilised by the resources sector, examining both new domestic graduates and the contribution from net international migration.

Chapter 7 compares the various supply and demand numbers, while Chapter 8 provides conclusions for the report.

The Appendices then provide information on methodology, a detailed project listing, and a range of additional forecasts tables.


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2 The economic backdrop Many sectors within the Australian economy are exposed to changes in global economic conditions, but perhaps none more so than the resources sector. This has particularly been the case over the past decade, with the mining operations and oil and gas workforces doubling in recent years, on the back of a very supportive global environment for resources.

However, since mid 2012 that global environment has become far less supportive, with many in the resources sector now embarking on cost cutting as a result.

2.1 Global economic conditions

Over the last decade global economic growth has largely been driven by the rapid industrialisation of China and India. This is evidenced in Chart 2.1 as the share of China and India in global economic output has grown substantially over time.

Chart 2.1: Share of global output, selected major economies

Source: Conference Board, Total Economy Database

Although there will be cycles, the broader trend in both China and India is a process of sustained urbanisation as rapid income growth and job opportunities attract workers to cities.

The urbanisation and industrialisation of emerging economies has been a key factor in increasing global demand for industrial commodities such as coal, iron ore and LNG. The

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subsequent rise in global commodity prices has been of particular benefit to commodity exporters such as Australia where it instigated an investment boom and a considerable lift in resources sector employment over recent years.

The reward from Australia’s enormous investment in resources is to be reaped from a sharp rise in resources production and exports over time.

The International Monetary Fund’s recent global forecasts noted that “Global economic prospects have improved again but the road to recovery in the advanced economies will remain bumpy. World output growth is forecast to reach 3¼ per cent in 2013 and 4 per cent in 2014.” It noted further that “Over the past six months, advanced economy policymakers have successfully defused two of the biggest short-term threats to the global recovery, the threat of a euro area breakup and a sharp fiscal contraction in the United States caused by a plunge off the “fiscal cliff.”” In short, the IMF assesses the risk of “something bad” happening to global growth with knock-on effects to Australian growth to have lessened, even while they have not disappeared completely.

2.2 Commodity prices

Record commodity prices over recent years have been the catalyst for a boom in Australia’s resources sector. But over the past year global commodity prices have moved down from their peak, creating a difficult environment for those in the resources sector. In addition, miners have been faced with rising costs in construction and operation, as prices have been coming down from their peak, placing a squeeze on previous levels of profitability.

More recently (since May 2013) the Australian dollar has also dropped notably against most major currencies, providing some offset against the global commodity price fall. The future path for resources commodity prices will be a key influence over the future profile of resource related investment and activity in the Australian economy.

Chart 2.2 shows Australia’s major export commodities by value. Iron ore is clearly the most significant commodity export for Australia at present, and the value of iron ore exports has risen sharply in recent years. Although LNG exports currently represent a far smaller share of exports, strong investment in this sector means it is expected to account for a much larger proportion of exports over time.


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Chart 2.2:Australia’s major export commodities

Source: BREE

Expectations for the price path of Australia’s most significant commodities are presented below. The price paths show central forecasts drawn from the Consensus Economics average forecast, with high growth and low growth bands around those representing the highest and lowest individual forecasts from the 2013 Consensus survey. These are then seen as representative of the base case, high growth and low growth forecasts respectively in this report.

Under the high growth scenario, strong Chinese industrial growth keeps the iron ore price trading within a high range. The base case forecasts show a general expectation that the iron ore price will fall over time as weaker global demand and new production capacity drives prices downward. Iron ore prices under the low growth scenario fall well below those in the other scenarios as weak global demand and increasing global production capacity combine to weaken iron ore prices further.

However, growth in iron ore production is expected to be strong. Over the five years to 2017-18, iron ore production is expected to increase on average by 8.6% per annum (Deloitte Access Economics, 2013)2.

2 Deloitte Access Economics Business Outlook ,September 2013

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Copper

LNG

Crude oil

Gold

Coal

Iron ore

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Chart 2.3: Iron ore prices

Source: Consensus Economics, Deloitte Access Economics

Under the high growth scenario, the gold price is driven down as investors seek higher returns from riskier assets. This is a reflection of increased investor confidence and better global growth. The base case projections see the gold price increase over the short term as uncertainty remains high and other assets remain somewhat risky. The gold price generally stays higher under the low growth scenario as investors look to shelter themselves from volatile currencies.

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Chart 2.4: Gold prices


Strong global demand for oil in the high growth scenario drives up the price Australia receives for its oil exports. However, increased production from major oil exporting nations ensures the price settles over the medium term. Under the low growth scenario the oil price received by exporters falls well below prices received in other scenarios based on higher supply levels globally of oil and alternate fuels. Under the base case scenario the oil price declines moderately as alternate fuels and technologies take a greater share of global energy output, while demand from developing countries is subdued.

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Chart 2.5: Oil prices


As a key input to steel production, coking coal prices under the high growth scenario grow strongly on the back of continued Chinese investment. Under the base case forecasts coking coal prices are projected to increase at a more modest rate – broadly in line with global demand growth. Price growth for coking coal is weakest under the low growth scenario driven by deteriorating global demand conditions over the short term.On the other hand, thermal coal prices have suffered of late from weakening domestic energy demand and weaker global demand. There is a notable difference in the projected path for thermal coal prices under the three scenarios, with an expectation for prices to rebound under the high growth scenario but continue to fall leading up to 2014-15 under the low growth scenario. However, even in the high growth scenario, thermal coal prices are expected to remain well below their recent peaks.

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Chart 2.6: Coking coal price


Chart 2.7 Thermal coal price


The path of Australia’s overall terms of trade (the ratio of Australian export prices to Australian import prices) is of critical importance to growth in Australia’s overall national income. The Federal government’s August 2013 Economic Statement included downgrades to the projected path for Australia’s terms of trade, and consequent downgrades to national income growth.

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For the scenarios shown here, the terms of trade tend to follow the general path of major commodity prices under each scenario, though in an inverse direction to gold prices. The base case projection for the terms of trade is consistent with that projected by Federal Treasury.

Chart 2.8 shows that under the high growth scenario the terms of trade is projected to remain high – though well short of the peaks seen in 2011. This path for the terms of trade under high growth is broadly consistent with that shown in the long boom scenario in previous work for AWPA (Economic modelling of skills demand and supply, 2012).

On the other hand, a sharp fall in demand for resource commodities under the low growth scenario drives the terms of trade down over the short term, and it remains at relatively low levels leading up to 2018. This path for the terms of trade under low growth is broadly consistent with that shown in the terms of trade shock scenario in previous work for AWPA (Economic modelling of skills demand and supply, 2012).

Chart 2.8: Australia’s terms of trade index

Source: Deloitte Access Economics, Federal Treasury Pre-Election Fiscal Outlook (2013).

The path for the terms of trade under each future scenario shown in the chart above has an influence over base employment levels and qualification demand in the resources sector as projected for this report. (Some of this influence would be offset by similar moves in the exchange rate, though in practice this has not provided a complete offset). The terms of trade paths would also have an influence over the extent to which projects in planning proceed to fruition. For the modelling in this report, however, the share of major projects which proceed is given by the parameters shown in Table 1.2 earlier.

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Turning to mine production, BREE (2013)3 expects an average increase of 5.4% per annum from 2012-13 to 2017-18. This production increase is expected to be driven by “substantial growth” in iron ore, black coal and LNG production. Deloitte Access Economics (2013) estimates of mining sector output growth over the same period are also strong, recording an annual average growth of 4.8%.

2.3 Productivity trends

Productivity isn’t everything, but in the long run it is almost everything.

These are the words of well-known US economist Paul Krugman. The size of our economy can grow as we add more people to it, and as we work for longer, but the holy grail of economic growth is productivity growth – doing more with less. Productivity growth is the key driver of per capita living standards over time.

Whilst being a higher productivity industry in general, productivity in Australia’s resource sector has suffered in recent years. Indeed, as Chart 2.9 shows, productivity for both labour and capital inputs into the resource sector are lower now than was the case at the turn of the century. Labour productivity has in fact halved, while capital productivity has not fared much better.

Chart 2.9: Resources sector productivity index level over time

Source: ABS National Accounts

That said, at present Australia is starting to see a cyclical improvement in productivity growth as the recent tranche of resources investment starts to pay dividends in the form of higher production and exports, with nothing like a commensurate increase in labour

3 BREE Resource and Energy Quarterly, September 2013

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expected. Hence there is an expectation for productivity levels in the resources sector to move back up substantially over the coming years. The recent strong investment phase is creating facilities which will often have very long lives of operation, and will often have steady rates of production over those long lives. This addition to productive capacity is likely to deliver improved measures of productivity over time. Deloitte Access Economics’ projections for labour productivity growth in the resources sector are shown in Chart 2.10.

Chart 2.10: Resources sector labour productivity, history and forecasts

Source: ABS National Accounts, Deloitte Access Economics

Chart 2.11 shows that within the broader resources sector, labour productivity in the oil and gas sector has also moved downward notably over the past decade. The sector possesses a massive pipeline of potential projects, but rising costs and an expectation for lower prices in the future – with contracts to Asia moving away from prices pegged to oil and more toward global gas prices – will present significant challenges to producers looking to get new projects underway.

Comparisons show that labour costs within Australia’s oil and gas industry are among the highest in the world. The average salary for an Australian working in the oil and gas industry is A$160,392 compared to the United States average of A$118,519 (Hays, 2013). Note that these figures relate to the entire oil and gas industry, and therefore include professional and managerial roles and personnel.

Notably the high cost of labour does not necessarily translate into high productivity. A study conducted by the Business Council of Australia (2012) found that Australian projects required some 30 to 35% more labour inputs to deliver the same project when compared with the United States.

These findings were indicative of not only the high cost of operating in Australia, but also of a lower return on investment. When compared to the United States Gulf Coast, Australian construction inputs are more expensive and project management costs are greater.

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McKinsey (2013) estimates that a new Australian LNG project would have a cost of supply as much as 30% higher than a matching Canadian or east African project.

Chart 2.11: Labour productivity in the oil and gas sector

Source: ABS National Accounts

Compared to other industry sectors, factor productivity in the mining sector has relatively underperformed over the past decade. Indeed since 2000, all sectors other than mining, utilities and real estate services have seen labour productivity increase. On the other hand, capital productivity has declined in most industry sectors over that time.

Overall, from 2000 to 2012 multifactor productivity has shown a large decrease in mining (-5.7% per annum), which can be compared to a more moderate decline across all sectors (-0.3% per annum). Multifactor productivity has seen substantial increases in some sectors over this time, led by construction (2.4% per annum) and agriculture (also 2.4% per annum). Indeed these statistics indicate the rapid adoption of new technologies, allowing output per worker to increase substantially, especially in agriculture.

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Table 2.1: Productivity growth across all sectors

Average annual growth 2000 - 2012 (%) Labour

productivity Capital

productivity MFP

Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 4.8% 1.0% 2.4%

Mining -7.2% -5.3% -5.7%

Manufacturing 1.7% -2.8% -0.4%

Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services -4.7% -4.0% -4.2%

Construction 2.7% 1.1% 2.4%

Wholesale Trade 2.4% -2.3% 0.4%

Retail Trade 2.2% -1.3% 1.2%

Accommodation and Food Services 0.8% -2.0% 0.4%

Transport, Postal and Warehousing 2.3% -1.6% 0.5%

Information, Media and Telecommunications 3.9% -1.7% 0.2%

Financial and Insurance Services 3.0% 1.5% 2.0%

Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services -0.9% -6.7% -3.6%

Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 1.2% -4.2% 0.4%

Administrative and Support Services 0.4% -5.8% -0.1%

Arts and Recreation Services 0.1% -1.4% -0.4%

Other Services 0.6% -7.6% -0.9%

Australia - total 0.9% -2.7% -0.3%

Source: ABS Cat No. 5260.0055


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3 The outlook for resources investment A key feature for the Australian economy in recent years has been a stunning rise in resources sector investment. It is clear however that resources sector investment has recently reached a peak, and looks set to decline in terms of the aggregate value of investment spending.

This chapter examines the current state of play with respect to major projects, as an important driver of skill needs in the resources sector going forward.

3.1 Broad trends

Activity within the resources sector has been the driving force of the Australian economy in recent years. Whilst this has been made possible due to very strong global demand for Australia’s resources (led primarily by the industrialisation of China), the global outlook has softened.

Mining (resources) investment was the equivalent of 7.7% of Australia’s GDP at the end of 2012, a stunning rise from 1.5% of GDP a decade ago. However, with commodity prices declining there is definite pressure on the current pipeline of projects. The Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE) believe that $150 billion of high value projects at the feasibility stage have been delayed or cancelled since April 2012.

Significant debate surrounds the expected future profile of resources investment, in particular the timing and intensity of the peak. The ABS’ capital expenditure survey indicates that resources investment is nearing its peak while other commentators are suggesting that resources investment has already peaked and is facing a sharp decline.

While on some measures (such as new project commencements) the peak has already been seen, there still continues to be a very large investment pipeline at present, and the long construction periods associated with resources investment mean that many of the current projects underway will continue to be in their construction phase for some time yet. It is also the case that greenfield developments can often lead to further expansion/brownfield development over time 9which is true of several major projects on the planning agenda.

In their 2013-14 Budget documents, Federal Treasury expect the peak in mining (resources) investment as a share of GDP to be in reached 2013-14, with a modest decline then seen in 2014-15. Mining investment projections were not specifically made beyond that point, though they can be inferred from an expected decline in the broader rate of business investment which is presented. That data suggests mining investment levels may fall sharply over 2015-16 and 2016-17. The Federal government’s August 2013 Economic Statement and the Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Outlook did not update these mining investment estimates, but they did downgrade both the broader business investment outlook, and the outlook for Australia’s terms of trade relative to earlier projections.


18


The consensus view from the major Australian banks is also gloomy, and includes expectations of a shorter term fall in the value of capital projects in Australia by 2015. The ANZ Bank noted:

“Investment in the mining and resources sector will decline particularly sharply over the second half of 2014 and 2015 and at a somewhat quicker pace than the RBA is currently anticipating underlining the importance that other sectors of the economy strengthen over the next 12-18 months.”

The ANZ projections see resources investment fall to as low as 2% of GDP by 2016. Meanwhile the NAB saw:

“Potential for mining investment to decline precipitously once existing projects have been completed. This “mining cliff” could appear as early as the first quarter of 2014.”

A lot of the heavy lifting in the resources sector is being performed by investment within oil and gas extraction. The size and scope of the projects, large LNG projects in particular, dwarf many minerals projects. Nevertheless, these projects are not immune the issues pertaining to the broader resources sector.

3.2 Major projects

The key source of major project information used for this report is the BREE “Resources and Energy Major Projects” database for April 2013.

As at April 2013 and as utilised for this report, that database showed a total of $264.5 billion of projects at the committed stage, a further $242.8 billion of projects at the feasibility stage, and $137.1 billion of projects at the publicly announced stage. As noted in the previous section, the resources investment cycle is starting to swing down and there have been a number of projects in the investment pipeline either deferred or cancelled. Even so, the current level of investment and the value of projects in the pipeline still form very significant totals.

A number of key projects are currently dominating the investment agenda, while there are other major projects which are in planning to be undertaken over the coming years. Table 3.1 below shows the cost profile (with indicative project start and end dates) for the five largest projects across the broad categories of the BREE database (energy projects, mining projects and infrastructure projects). In terms of cost, LNG projects dominate the energy investment agenda, with the bulk of these already underway. The largest scale mining projects are spread between coal and iron ore facilities.


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Table 3.1: Summary of major investment projects by category, $m

Energy projects

Project Cost Start End Cost per quarter

Gorgon LNG 52,000 Dec-09 Mar-15 2,476 Ichthys LNG 33,000 Jun-12 Jun-16 2,063 Wheatstone LNG 29,000 Mar-12 Jun-16 1,706 Queensland Curtis LNG project 19,800 Jun-11 Jun-14 1,650 Gladstone LNG 18,000 Mar-11 Dec-15 947

Mining projects


Alpha Coal Project 10,000 Mar-14 Jun-17 769 Roy Hill 9,500 Dec-13 Dec-15 1,188 Sino Iron Project 8,400 Dec-10 Jun-13 840 China First Coal project (Galilee Coal) 8,000 Mar-14 Mar-17 667

West Pilbara 7,400 Mar-16 Jun-20 435

Infrastructure projects


Dudgeon Point 12,000 Mar-15 Mar-17 1,500 Carmichael Coal Project (mine and rail) 7,100 Dec-13 Dec-15 888 Jimblebar mine and rail (WAIO) 5,180 Mar-11 Mar-14 432 Cape Lambert port and rail expansion 5,166 Jun-13 Jun-15 646 Anketell Point Project 4,000 Dec-14 Jun-17 400

Source: BREE April 2013, Deloitte Access Economics

For the purposes of this study, the projects identified in the BREE listing have been provided with indicative timelines for their development and completion. These timelines have incorporated information from Deloitte Access Economics’ Investment Monitor database. Project costs have been assigned across these time periods in a straight line fashion.4

Projects have also been assigned according to their region of location, based on the regions used in this report.

A full project listing with indicative timelines by region is provided in Appendix B.

The projects shown in Appendix B cover the three development stages within the project listing (committed projects, those at feasibility stage, and those at the publicly announced stage). For the labour demand projections which follow in the next chapter, these projects are modelled according to the assumed proportion of projects which will proceed for each stage of development (which had been shown earlier in Table 1.2).

The greatest certainty is around projects which have already been committed to (and in many cases have already commenced construction). In the base case and high growth

4 For some individual projects, these cost estimates are an update to estimates provided by BREE, or are an inclusion of a cost estimate where none was provided by BREE. Overall cost estimates shown here however are close to those provided in BREE (April 2013).


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scenarios 100% of the cost of committed projects is included within the modelling, while 90% of costs are included in the low growth scenario. Table 3.2 below shows the value of projects listed as committed in the BREE database in each region.

Table 3.2: Committed projects by category, cost ($m) and region, 2013

Energy

projects

Minerals Projects

Infrastructure

projects Total

Region number cost number cost number cost number cost

Kimberley (WA) 1 12,600 0 0 0 0 1 12,600

Pilbara (WA) 10 92,156 7 16,722 6 18,221 23 127,099

Mid-West (WA) 0 0 1 55 0 0 1 55

Goldfields (WA) 0 0 1 845 0 0 1 845

Balance of WA 1 526 1 550 0 0 2 1,076

Western Australia 11 105,282 10 18,172 6 18,221 27 141,675

Darling Downs (QLD) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fitzroy (QLD) 3 62,500 0 2,333 0 3,300 3 68,133

Makcay (QLD) 0 0 8 7,856 1 2,710 9 10,566

Balance of QLD 0 0 4 2,011 0 0 4 2,011

Queensland 3 62,500 12 12,200 1 6,010 16 80,710

Hunter (NSW) 0 0 5 3,294 0 0 5 3,294

Balance of NSW 1 100 7 1,317 0 0 8 1,417

New South Wales 1 100 12 4,611 0 0 13 4,711 Outback-North East (SA) 0 0 1 98 0 0 1 98

Balance of SA 0 0 0 0 1 200 1 200

South Australia 0 0 1 98 1 200 2 298

Victoria 1 2,600 0 0 0 0 1 2,600

Tasmania 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Northern Territory 2 33,680 3 810 0 0 5 34,490

ACT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Australia- total 19 204,162 38 35,891 8 24,431 65 264,484

Source: BREE April 2013

Table 3.2 shows that across Australia there is some $264.5 billion of resources and related investment in the committed category. Figure 3.1 below show the location of projects at the committed stage in the database.

By region this current investment challenge is dominated by the Pilbara region, with 48.1% of the value of committed projects underway, led by the Gorgon and Wheatstone LNG developments, along with a range of iron ore projects.

The Fitzroy region of Queensland has a very significant 25.8% of the committed project investment agenda, dominated by three major LNG projects to be completed during 2014 or 2015.

Elsewhere the Northern Territory has 13.0% of the committed investment agenda, also dominated by LNG – the Ichthys project in this case.


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Figure 3.1: Location of major projects at the committed stage

Source: BREE April 2013


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3.2.2 Profile of major project capital expenditure over time

The interaction of the BREE major project information discussed in this chapter and the growth scenario parameters shown earlier in Table 1.2 combine to produce the projected profiles of capital expenditure on major projects as shown in Chart 3.1 All scenarios are driven by the specified parameters on the probability of projects proceeding.

There are a range of views in relation to the expected level of resources sector capital expenditure, and some are more negative than the three scenarios presented here. Treasury estimates5 of the expected capital expenditure are more in line with the low growth scenario presented in Chart 3.1. Thus, the low growth scenario forms a reasonable benchmark in relation to ‘official’ projections, though both higher and lower levels of investment in the short term are possible.

The three sets of projections shown here, along with the range of other opinions on this matter, all point to a notably lower level of resources sector capital investment in 2018 compared to now.

In all scenarios there is a marked deterioration in major project capital expenditure between 2015 and 2018, as many of the projects currently underway or expected to commence in 2014 will be completed, and there are far fewer projects in the pipeline to replace them.

The profile for major projects from 2013 to 2015 is quite different by scenario, ranging from a plateauing of investment levels in the low growth scenario, to a further short term increase in spending in the base case and high growth scenarios. The latter results stem from the continuation of major projects underway combined with strong assumptions in relation to future projects commencing in 2014 and 2015.

The broader macroeconomic projections discussed in section 3.1 are more consistent with the low growth scenario, or something worse than the low growth scenario, for the short term. It is also possible that new project approvals may be modest over 2014 and 2015, but some of those projects may then return in 2016 or later – such an outcome might provide a smoother capital expenditure than that shown for any of the scenarios here.

That said, the general profile of a short term peak in resources project investment spending followed by a decline towards a much lower level of spending does make sense, in particular in relation to major LNG projects which are discussed further below.

5 Treasury (2013) Budget papers Statement 2


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Chart 3.1: Profile of major project capital expenditure per annum by scenario, $billion

Source: Deloitte Access Economics based on BREE April 2013 and AWPA

Chart 3.2: Profile of major project capital expenditure, by commodity, base case, $billion

Source: Deloitte Access Economics based on BREE April 2013 and AWPA

Chart 3.2 above illustrates capital expenditure by commodity under the base case scenario. Note that capital expenditure on major projects is projected to fall over time for all major

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2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Coal projects Iron ore and related projects Oil and gas projects Other mineral projects

Capital expenditure per annum, $billion


24


commodities, though some commodities see additional expenditure in the short term (based on the assumed probabilities for projects proceeding in the base case)..

3.2.3 Major LNG projects

A key feature of the resources investment boom in Australia has been the massive amount of investment directed into the LNG sector. Indeed, the value of LNG projects currently underway and in the pipeline has been compared with the investment made by the United States into the Apollo space program (in 2012 dollars) and is the single largest investment into a sector in Australia’s history.

The ten largest LNG projects by value are listed in Chart 3.3 below, with a combined value of committed and pipeline projects of $240 billion (where the green series represent “committed” projects and the dark blue, projects at the “feasibility stage”). The chart also shows that a transition is approaching with the bulk of those investment projects being currently underway and due for completion in the next two years, with far less in the pipeline to potentially replace them.

So far, Western Australia and the Northern Territory have been the major beneficiaries from the surge in LNG investment and exports, but Queensland is now also seeing major investment. While WA and the NT have extensive conventional gas reserves located off Australia’s north and west coasts, a share of investment in Queensland is sourced from coal seam gas (CSG) deposits and associated processing and distribution infrastructure.

The largest of the projects currently underway is the $52 billion Gorgon LNG development on Barrow Island off the coast of Western Australia. Construction commenced on the Gorgon project at the end of 2009, and work is expected to be ongoing until 2015. Originally Gorgon was expected to cost $43 billion but due to high Australian operating costs there has been a $9 billion cost over-run. . Gorgon is followed by the Northern Territory’s $34 billion Inpex Ichthys development of the Ichthys gas field off the coast of WA, with processing facilities at Darwin, which is expected to be completed in 2016. Chevron/Shell’s $29 billion Wheatstone LNG project near the Carnarvon Basin and Shell’s $12 billion Prelude floating LNG project in the Browse Basin are both underway and are expected to be completed in 2016.

Queensland now has three large LNG projects underway. The largest is Origin Energy / Conoco Phillips’ ‘Australia Pacific LNG’ project at Curtis Island at Gladstone. This project involves a new coal seam gas to LNG facility, including a 450-kilometre gas transmission pipeline, at a total cost of $24.7 billion. Construction of the project commenced in 2011 and is expected to continue until 2015. Another $19 billion LNG facility (GLNG) is also underway at Gladstone, based on coal seam methane reserves, while Queensland Gas Company / BG Group are developing the $19.6 billion Curtis LNG project, which will involve construction of an LNG plant and a 540km pipeline to pipe gas from the Surat Basin.

Despite the scale of investment in oil and gas, there are causes for considerable concern. It is becoming more apparent that the competitive edge gained from Australia’s geographical proximity to Asian markets is being eroded. High domestic construction costs, as well as labour shortages and productivity issues are creating a difficult economic environment for producers to operate in.


25


These issues not only pose challenges to current projects but place a cloud over the LNG investment pipeline. In response, there has been a move towards different technology to assist in the viability of projects, such as Floating LNG (FLNG). Most notably, the proposed Scarborough project is to be delivered on an FLNG platform, which is set to be the biggest of its kind in the world. Project proponents are considering FLNG technologies as an economically viable alternative to harvest their gas reserves in the Browse Basin.

Chart 3.3: Timeline of LNG projects, Australia

Source: BREE April 2013, Deloitte Access Economics

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Gorgon LNG

Gladstone LNG

Australia Pacific LNG (trains 1 and 2)

Queensland Curtis LNG project

Wheatstone LNG

Ichthys LNG

Prelude Floating LNG

Arrow LNG Plant (trains 1 and 2)

Bonaparte Floating LNG

Scarborough FLNG


26


4 Resources sector demand for labour This chapter provides expected employment in the resources sector for each of the scenarios by relevant industry sector and by region.

4.1 Recent trends

The tables below present estimates of the number of employed persons in each of the three key industry sectors of interest. This data forms the historical basis for the projections which then follow.

The data presented in the tables below is sourced from the ABS Detailed Labour Force Statistics, Catalogue number 6291.0.55.003. Additional data has been sourced from ABS Census 2006 and 2011. Employment data provided in this report is in terms of persons, not full-time equivalent persons.

Estimated employment levels for resources project construction reflect a combination of ANZSIC industry 31 (Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction) and ANZSIC industry 32 (Construction services), with both groups having workers who would be involved in major project construction. ABS data suggests that this composite group saw solid employment growth up to 2011.

Table 4.1: Estimated employment level, resources project construction


Year Employment

(‘000) Annual growth

2006 62.6 2007 74.9 20% 2008 74.8 0% 2009 79.6 6% 2010 78.4 -2% 2011 82.5 5%

2012 80.0 -3%

Source: ABS Census, ABS Labour Force data, Deloitte Access Economics

Table 4.2 shows that employment growth within mining operations has exhibited strong growth over the period from 2006, leading to a peak in employment in 2012. Preliminary data suggests a modest fall in mining operations employment levels during 2013.


27


Table 4.2: Estimated employment level, mining operations

Mining operations

Year Employment


2006 122.7 9% 2007 127.6 4% 2008 153.9 21% 2009 150.0 -3% 2010 172.6 15% 2011 209.5 21%

2012 249.6 19%


Table 4.3 displays the share of employment in mining operations by commodity. Estimates of employment by commodity have been derived from ABS Census information, and hence are only presented for 2006 and 2011.

The notable change between the Census periods for mining operations has been a lift in the share of activity taken up by iron ore. The employment share for all other commodities has declined marginally to accommodate this. Of course, these are declining shares against a strongly growing base, with the data in Table 4.2 suggesting that the level of employment in mining operations doubled between 2006 and 2012.

Table 4.3: Estimated share of mining operations employment by commodity

2006 2011

Employment level Share of total % Employment level Share of total%

Coal 53,456 44% 88,724 42% Iron ore 16,497 13% 44,743 21% Gold 19,435 16% 31,944 15% Bauxite 2,966 2% 3,893 2% Nickel 5,472 4% 5,685 3% Copper 10,548 9% 14,071 7% Zinc 5,392 4% 7,760 4% Other 8,959 7% 12,635 6%

Total 122,725 100% 209,454 100%


Table 4.4 below shows the level of and growth in employment for the oil and gas extraction and supply sector. This sector has experienced strong employment growth over time, with the level of employment in this sector increasing substantially from 2006 to 2012. Preliminary data suggests a further notable lift in the employment base for oil and gas extraction and supply in 2013.

Investment levels in the oil and gas sector have been very strong in recent years, and remain so in 2013. While this sector continues to see workforce growth, the level of this workforce is equivalent to only 13% of the size of the mining operations workforce.


28


Table 4.4: Estimated employment level, oil and gas extraction / supply


Year Employment


2006 16.5 38% 2007 20.1 21% 2008 22.0 10% 2009 24.4 11% 2010 24.4 0% 2011 23.4 -4%

2012 28.3 21%


4.2 Resources sector demand by industry sector

Looking forward, the construction of major projects for the resources sector is defined by those specific major projects identified by BREE. Hence for 2013 and beyond, employment estimates for the industry sector of resources project construction are dominated by the profile for BREE major projects.

For mining operations and oil and gas extraction/supply, the employment projections reflect the combination of base employment projections (related to existing operations as influenced by different commodity price paths in the different scenarios), and any additional requirements stemming from BREE major projects where construction is completed and operations are expected to commence.

For employment levels related to resources project construction, Table 4.5 shows some sizeable shifts over the projection period. The bulk of major oil and gas projects currently underway are expected to still be under construction over much of 2014 and 2015. In addition, other major projects are also expected to see a ramp-up in construction activity, such that employment associated with resources project construction lifts under the base case scenario from 2013 to 2014 and still maintains a high level in 2015. The low growth scenario, which is more in line with Federal Treasury projections for investment, suggest a plateauing of employment levels in resources project construction in 2014.

Between 2014 and 2018 all scenarios see sharp drops in employment associated with resources project construction, consistent with the bulk of major projects currently underway being completed, and a relative dearth of new projects coming on board to replace them.

For this sector, the high growth scenario differs from the base case via a higher probability of BREE projects at various stages proceeding. Hence, employment levels for this sector are notably higher from 2014 to 2018 in Table 4.6, and then notably lower in the low growth scenario shown in Table 4.7, where the probabilities of projects proceeding are lower. (The equivalent capital expenditure estimates were displayed in Chart 3.1).

Employment growth in mining operations has been strong up until 2012, and has consolidated in 2013. As discussed in Chapter 2, the future path of commodity prices will


29


play an important role in shaping future growth for the Australian economy, and specifically demand for labour within mining operations. Looking forward, the level of employment in mining operations by 2018 is expected to be 254,260 under the base case, which amounts to a 7.4% increase from the estimated 2013 employment level. Under the high growth scenario there is an expectation for mining operations employment to be 11.1% higher than 2013 levels by 2018. Conversely, in the low growth scenario mining operations employment is expected to rise by just 4.4% from 2013 to 2018. These differences between scenarios reflect different paths for commodity prices and production levels which vary from a different schedule of major projects.

Employment in the oil and gas extraction and supply sector has experienced the most robust growth since 2010 of the three sectors examined. This trend is expected to continue as many of the major LNG projects under construction move into their production phase. The expectation going forward is that this sector should experience average employment growth of approximately 9.4% annually to 2018. The base case yields an estimate of 61,212 persons employed in 2018, which is a 57.2% increase on the estimated 2013 employment level, or an additional 22,269 workers. This growth is even more robust under the high growth scenario, where an additional 25,948 workers are expected by 2018. The low growth scenario yields a more conservative estimate, yet would still see 16,932 additional workers by 2018, or a 43% increase from the 2013 levels.

The employment growth expected within mining operations and oil and gas extraction / supply will be required in order to deliver very large expansions in productive capacity. The value added per additional worker across these sectors is very high. ABS National Accounts data suggests gross value added per person employed in oil and gas extraction in 2012 amounted to $873,000. For mining operations, gross value added per person in 2012 amounted to $462,000.

Table 4.5: Projected employment level by industry sector – base case




Total

2013 85,819 236,690 38,943 361,452

2014 118,825 238,537 44,087 401,449

2015 107,710 243,525 49,908 401,143

2016 70,903 249,111 55,349 375,363

2017 49,325 252,456 58,666 360,448

2018 28,857 254,260 61,212 344,328

Source: ABS Labour Force data. Deloitte Access Economics

Table 4.6: Projected employment level by industry sector – high growth




Total

2013 85,819 236,690 38,943 361,452

2014 144,043 238,759 43,924 426,726

2015 144,046 246,128 50,275 440,450

2016 102,887 254,120 56,740 413,747

2017 76,230 259,471 61,210 396,912

2018 48,685 262,927 64,891 376,502

Source: ABS Labour Force data, Deloitte Access Economics


30


Table 4.7: Projected employment level by industry sector – low growth




Total

2013 85,819 236,690 38,943 361,452

2014 83,321 238,553 44,299 366,173

2015 69,444 241,088 48,434 358,966

2016 37,661 244,710 52,290 334,662

2017 20,288 246,580 54,422 321,290

2018 7,708 247,148 55,875 310,730

Source: ABS Labour Force data, Deloitte Access Economics

Expected employment growth rates for each of the three sectors are shown in the following charts. Chart 4.1 highlights the expected reductions in employment from 2016 to 2018 driven by the profile of BREE major project construction, while Chart 4.3 highlights the strong employment growth for the oil and gas sector expected to be delivered as projects currently under construction are delivered.

Chart 4.1: Projected employment growth by scenario, resources project construction


-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

High Base Low

Year on year changeYear on year change


31


Chart 4.2: Projected employment growth by scenario, mining operations


Chart 4.3: Projected employment growth by scenario, oil and gas extraction / supply


0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018High Base Low


0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018High Base low



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4.3 Resources sector demand by region

This section provides projections for employment in Australia’s major mining regions.

The tables below provide projections for the total level of resources employment in each region, across all sectors and under each scenario. This splits the projected employment levels provided in section 4.2 on a regional basis. Appendix C contains the equivalent scenario tables detailing the projected total level of employment in each region separately for the three industry sectors.

Chart 4.4 below displays the expected change in employment between 2013 and 2018 in the major mining regions under the base case. Note that the whole of the Northern Territory is considered a mining region in the tables and discussion below. Projected employment gains over that time are expected to be strongest in the Pilbara region of WA, and the Darling Downs and Mackay regions of Queensland. Across all regions there is a transition away from construction jobs over time towards operational jobs.

Chart 4.4: Projected employment growth by major mining region, base case


The Pilbara accounts for the lion’s share of major projects in Western Australia. The region is abundant with iron ore deposits and hosts a basket of major iron ore projects. The region also supports large scale LNG developments - North West Shelf and Pluto and has an impressive list of major projects in the pipeline.

The Pilbara has recently witnessed some major project completions. The completion of the $1.3 billion Hope Downs iron ore mine leads the way, while the Fortescue Metals Group

-6,000

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

Oil and gas extraction / supply Mining operations Resource projects construction Total

Change in number of employed persons, 2013 to 2018


33


recently announced the completion of work on the expansion of its Firetail deposit (part of the Chichester Hub project), with remaining work to draw to a close by the end of the year.

Mining activity in the Goldfields is predominantly centred in precious metals. However, the region is known to have the State’s largest uranium deposit. The largest committed major project is AnlgoGold Ashanti/ Independence Group’s $845 million Tropicana joint venture. Employment in the Goldfields region is expected to increase by 1,303 persons by 2018 under the base case. The high growth scenario yields a more optimistic estimate of 1,956 persons across all sectors.

Resource related employment also makes up a notable share of employment in Western Australia’s Mid-West, taking third place above the State’s Kimberley region (according to 2011 Census). The Mid-West region is one of the most diverse resource regions in Western Australia, with several operations covering gold, iron ore and oil and gas. The Kimberley region has also recently seen the completion of Rio Tinto’s $1.7 billion Argyle Diamond mine and has some large LNG developments already under way off the coast - led by Shell’s $12.6 billion Prelude Floating LNG potential development in the Browse Basin. However, Woodside’s decision to shelve plans for an onshore processing facility at James Price Point, in favour of a floating LNG development, has delivered a major blow to employment prospects for the Kimberley.

Table 4.8: Projected employment level by region – all sectors, base case

Region 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Kimberley (WA) 2,284 2,403 2,386 2,348 2,312 2,261

Pilbara (WA) 21,407 23,356 25,279 26,610 27,408 27,941

Mid-West (WA) 5,262 5,633 5,718 5,749 5,770 5,742

Goldfields (WA) 9,911 10,217 10,529 10,846 11,069 11,214

Balance of Western Australia 102,917 109,159 100,904 92,878 87,838 82,200

Western Australia 141,782 150,768 144,816 138,431 134,398 129,359

Darling Downs (QLD) 4,266 6,406 8,224 9,238 9,828 10,298

Fitzroy (QLD) 15,430 16,932 17,923 18,550 19,063 19,234

Mackay (QLD) 20,062 21,351 22,635 23,754 24,635 25,054

Balance of Queensland 63,252 78,663 74,580 63,054 55,637 47,197

Queensland 103,011 123,353 123,362 114,596 109,162 101,783 Hunter (NSW) 15,776 16,659 17,183 17,193 17,302 17,451

Balance of New South Wales 45,842 50,529 52,431 44,877 40,895 38,238

New South Wales 61,618 67,188 69,615 62,070 58,197 55,690 Outback-North East (SA) 3,810 3,836 3,780 3,887 4,105 4,303

Balance of South Australia 12,674 14,707 15,919 14,392 13,255 12,299

South Australia 16,484 18,543 19,699 18,279 17,360 16,602 Victoria 21,093 22,346 22,474 21,326 21,112 21,085

Tasmania 6,066 6,265 6,203 6,078 6,059 6,046

Northern Territory 10,590 12,150 14,135 13,738 13,316 12,927

ACT 556 560 550 542 536 530

Offshore oil and gas 253 275 290 301 307 307

Australia – total 361,452 401,449 401,143 375,363 360,448 344,328


Moving east, resource related investment in recent years has focused around developments in the coal and coal seam gas sectors. The Bowen Basin in the Mackay


34


region is one of Australia’s largest high quality coal reserves. Some impressive projects at the “feasibility stage” include NQBP’s $12 billion Dudgeon Point Coal Terminal and GVK- Hancock’s $10 billion Alpha Coal Project. The former is expected to have a construction workforce of 1,800 and operations workforce of 640 (according to BREE data). Employment growth in the Mackay region is expected to average 4.5% per year under the base case scenario. This translates to a level of employment that is 25% larger than that in 2013.

The Fitzroy region is expected to do a lot of the heavy lifting in the coming years, with two of the top five largest LNG projects located here – the Australian Pacific LNG project and the Curtis LNG project. Other impressive projects in the Fitzroy pipeline include the $8 billion China First Coal project and Vale’s $2.8 billion Belvedere underground project, which is expected to provide construction employment for 600 persons and an operations workforce of 400. Fitzroy is expected to exhibit similar employment growth as Mackay, of 4.5% per annum under the base case, with that growth rate lower under the low growth scenario, at 2.8% per year on average between 2013 and 2018.

The level of resource related employment within the Darling Downs is considerably smaller than Mackay or Fitzroy. However, there are some large projects at the feasibility stage within the database. These include Arrow Energy’s $1.5 billion Surat Gas Project which has an estimated combined construction and operations workforce of 1,400 workers. These projects will provide the foundation for robust resources employment growth in the region.

Table 4.9: Projected employment level by region – all sectors, high growth

Region 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Kimberley (WA) 2,284 2,462 2,482 2,453 2,418 2,358

Pilbara (WA) 21,407 23,523 25,865 27,608 28,789 29,663

Mid-West (WA) 5,262 5,758 5,953 6,034 6,088 6,068

Goldfields (WA) 9,911 10,282 10,764 11,244 11,608 11,867




Fitzroy (QLD) 15,430 17,483 18,986 19,944 20,708 21,009

Mackay (QLD) 20,062 21,831 23,738 25,368 26,639 27,284







Tasmania 6,066 6,501 6,545 6,395 6,394 6,389


ACT 556 645 709 712 715 709


Australia – total 361,452 426,726 440,450 413,747 396,912 376,502



35


The Hunter Valley is the dominant mining region in New South Wales and is home to a collection of large coal and coal seam gas projects. Coal projects within the region are led by Xstrata’s $1.4 billion Ravensworth expansion, and its $1.1 billion Ulan west underground project. CSG projects in the region are led by Santos’ $1.3 billion Narrabri Coal Seam Gas Project at the feasibility stage. Mining operations are expected to do a lot of the heavy lifting in this region up to 2018.

Other projects around New South Wales are led by BHP Billiton’s $833 million Appin coal project in the Illawarra. Newcrest’s $1.9 billion Cadia East gold and copper mine near Orange has recently moved into the production phase, while elsewhere, work has completed on Xstrata’s Ernest Henry underground copper and gold mine, along with Xstrata’s $362 million Lady Loretta underground zinc mine expansion.

For a State with an abundance of natural resources, South Australia is a small player in terms of resource related employment. The region is rich with uranium, gold, copper and iron ore and will someday develop the abundance of resource is has locked in the ground. The Outback-North East region is considered as the only major mining region in South Australia.

Victoria is not often thought of in terms of resource sector employment. However, the State accounts for approximately 6% of the national total of resources sector employment. A good share of this is a result of head office functions for national mining companies in Melbourne – though the State is also home to at least one major mining project. Resources sector activity in the State is led by work on the $4.4 billion Kipper-Tuna-Turrum oil project in Bass Straight and is slated to be operational by 2016. Under the high growth scenario the 2018 resources sector workforce is expected to increase by 4,539 people.

Planning is underway in Tasmania’s resources sector for a $200 million tin and tungsten mine at Mount Lindsay, while a proposal has been submitted for a $78 million open cut nickel and cobalt mine at Barnes Hill. However, there is little activity outside of the aforementioned projects and nothing significant in the pipeline according to BREE data.

Relative to the size of its economy, the value of major project construction work in the Northern Territory is larger than that for Queensland and WA combined. Even more compelling is that the bulk of the heavy lifting is being done by a single project – the $34 billion Ichthys LNG development. Indeed the capital value of this project by itself is almost twice the size of the Territory’s domestic economy (estimated at around $19 billion in 2012-13).


36


Table 4.10: Projected employment level by region – all sectors, low growth

Region 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Kimberley (WA) 2,284 2,296 2,265 2,227 2,194 2,156

Pilbara (WA) 21,407 23,139 24,377 25,237 25,703 25,968

Mid-West (WA) 5,262 5,412 5,425 5,417 5,414 5,389

Goldfields (WA) 9,911 10,133 10,283 10,464 10,581 10,642




Fitzroy (QLD) 15,430 16,245 16,768 17,060 17,340 17,432

Mackay (QLD) 20,062 20,762 21,468 22,092 22,617 22,875







Tasmania 6,066 6,051 5,944 5,785 5,729 5,730


ACT 556 485 437 373 334 338


Australia – total 361,452 366,173 358,966 334,662 321,290 310,730



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5 Characteristics of future labour demand This chapter provides further details on the expected employment profile for the resources sector over the next five years.

5.1 Resources sector demand by occupation

The tables below provide a profile of the occupational composition of the resources sector. The occupational profile estimates for 2013 are drawn from ABS Census information, with projections then following trends over recent years for occupational changes within industry sectors.

In 2013, machinery operators and drivers were well represented in the resources sector (24.5% of the workforce), only bettered by technicians and trades workers (33.5% of the workforce). The sector also employed a reasonable number of managers (9.3% of the workforce), professionals (15.4%), clerical and administrative workers (10.2%), and labourers (6.0%). Both sales workers and community and personal service workers made up very small proportions of the workforce.

By 2018, the occupational mix is expected to shift in favour of those who are in greater demand during the operational phase of resources projects. Under all scenarios, professionals, managers and community and personal service workers experience the strongest average growth over the forecast period, the latter off a very low base.

Under the base case and high growth scenarios the most well represented broad occupational group in 2018 still remains technicians and trades workers, followed by machinery operators and drivers, while in the low growth scenario these positions are reversed.

The following tables display the projected occupational structure for the resources sector as a whole under each of the three scenarios. The equivalent information for each of the three sectors separately is shown in Appendix C.


38


Table 5.1: Projected employment level by occupation – all sectors, Australia, base case

Broad occupation 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Avg growth

p.a.

Managers 33,742 37,099 38,309 37,896 38,003 37,994 2.4%

Professionals 55,662 59,688 63,364 66,061 68,004 69,457 4.5% Technicians and Trades Workers

121,261 142,414 136,539 115,296 102,945 91,283 -5.5%

Community and Personal Service Workers

1,421 1,544 1,579 1,543 1,540 1,530 1.5%

Clerical and Administrative Workers

37,028 41,315 41,307 38,446 36,726 34,901 -1.2%

Sales Workers 2,074 2,379 2,384 2,184 2,066 1,937 -1.4% Machinery Operators And Drivers

88,602 91,014 92,600 93,005 92,722 91,204 0.6%

Labourers 21,661 25,994 25,061 20,933 18,442 16,022 -5.9%

Total 361,452 401,449 401,143 375,363 360,448 344,328 -1.0%


Table 5.2: Projected employment level by occupation – all sectors, Australia, high growth


p.a.

Managers 33,742 38,399 40,561 40,378 40,635 40,617 3.8%


121,261 158,026 159,444 135,910 120,939 105,509 -2.7%


1,421 1,603 1,678 1,651 1,651 1,638 2.9%


37,028 43,694 45,089 42,268 40,444 38,253 0.7%

Sales Workers 2,074 2,557 2,663 2,463 2,336 2,176 1.0% Machinery Operators And Drivers

88,602 93,113 96,564 97,711 97,878 96,410 1.7%

Labourers 21,661 28,992 29,496 24,974 21,988 18,821 -2.8%

Total 361,452 426,726 440,450 413,747 396,912 376,502 0.8%



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Table 5.3: Projected employment level by occupation – all sectors, Australia, low growth


p.a.

Managers 33,742 35,269 35,787 35,153 35,121 35,238 0.9%


121,261 120,619 112,428 93,926 83,784 76,422 -8.8%


1,421 1,462 1,470 1,429 1,422 1,422 0.0%


37,028 37,933 37,099 34,227 32,592 31,294 -3.3%

Sales Workers 2,074 2,124 2,071 1,869 1,758 1,671 -4.2% Machinery Operators And Drivers

88,602 88,165 88,442 88,241 87,594 86,224 -0.5%

Labourers 21,661 21,782 20,351 16,691 14,607 13,047 -9.6%

Total 361,452 366,173 358,966 334,662 321,290 310,730 -3.0%


Key detailed occupations

A more detailed occupational profile and projection for the resources sector (4 digit ANZSCO classification) is shown in Appendix D.

That data highlights key individual occupations which form a substantial component of employment in the industry sectors of interest. These occupations do differ notably between the three sectors, which again highlights that different skill sets will be required over time as the resources sector increasingly moves from a construction phase to an operational phase.

That said, there are some areas of commonality between the sectors. The detailed occupation ‘drillers, miners and shot firers’ is in the top five occupations for both mining operations and oil and gas extraction / supply, while electricians are the highest demanded occupation in the resources project construction sector, while coming in sixth in mining operations.

Table 5.4 provides a list of the top five detailed occupations in terms of employment for the three industry sectors in 2013, along with projected employment levels for those occupations in 2018.

Notably, employment of the top five occupations in the resources project construction sector almost halves, with the top occupation of electricians falling by an even greater margin. Meanwhile, employment of the top five occupations in the oil and gas extraction and supply sector increases by 72% by 2018.


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Table 5.4: Top five detailed occupations by sector, base case, employment level 2013 and 2018

Employment level 2013 2018


O3411 Electricians 11,175 3,585

O3341 Plumbers 8,781 2,817

O3312 Carpenters and Joiners 8,300 2,662

O3322 Painting Trades Workers 4,979 1,597

O7212 Earthmoving Plant Operators 3,979 1,319

Total (top five) 37,215 10,383

Mining operations

O7122 Drillers, Miners and Shot Firers 49,125 53,311

O3232 Metal Fitters and Machinists 23,664 24,188

O3129 Other Building and Engineering Technicians 13,281 13,663

O7331 Truck Drivers 11,864 12,602

O1335 Production Managers 8,765 10,065

Total (top five) 106,700 113,829


O3992 Chemical, Gas, Petroleum and Power Generation Plant Operators 2,060 3,265

O2336 Mining Engineers 1,940 3,548

O2211 Accountants 1,702 2,818

O7122 Drillers, Miners and Shot Firers 1,328 2,285

O2344 Geologists and Geophysicists 1,306 2,416

Total (top five) 8,336 14,332


An examination of the detailed occupational data for these industry sectors also show that beyond the key occupations identified above, there is quite a spread of employment across a range of occupations, including many that might not be traditionally associated with resources (including a variety of head office and support occupational roles). This includes a range of processing and transport related support occupations, with employment levels in 2013 across some of these detailed occupational categories highlighted in Table 5.5.


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Table 5.5: Key processing and transport occupations, employment level 2013

Employment 2013 Resources project

construction Mining

operations Oil and gas

extraction / supply All

sectors

Supply and distribution managers (1336)

83 938 443 1,464

Purchasing and supply logistics clerks (5911)

236 3,098 701 4,035

Transport and despatch clerks (5912)

38 671 159 868

Metal engineering and process workers (8391)

114 347 35 496

Other factory and process workers (8399)

84 52 - 135

Total 555 5,106 1,337 6,998


Table 5.6 presents the projected employment levels under the base case for the same detailed occupations in 2018. For all of these occupations there is a notable decline in employment in resources project construction over the period, while a ramp up in capacity in the oil and gas sector is expected to support overall solid demand growth for the first three detailed occupations.

Table 5.6: Key processing and transport occupations, employment level 2018, base case

Employment 2018 (Base case)


Mining operations

Oil and gas extraction /supply

All sectors

Supply and distribution managers (1336)

34 1,062 759 1,856

Purchasing and supply logistics clerks (5911)

85 3,154 1,207 4,446

Transport and despatch clerks (5912)

14 679 234 927

Metal engineering and process workers (8391)

39 359 52 450

Other factory and process workers (8399)

29 53 - 82

Total 201 5,307 2,252 7,761


5.2 Replacement demand

The discussion to date has focused on the level of employment expected, and how that employment level may grow over time. Also important for training implications is the replacement of workers who are exiting the workforce permanently. Replacement of workers provides an additional demand for workers and skills and has important implications for the provision of training and the demand for training services.

Projected average net replacement rates by broad occupational category are shown in Table 5.7 below, with the totals reflecting the weighted average replacement rate for the resources sector. The method used for these projections is described in Appendix A.


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Table 5.7: Projected net replacement rate by occupation

Average rate 2013-2018 High growth Base case Low growth

Managers 2.4% 2.5% 2.6%

Professionals 1.6% 1.7% 1.7%

Technicians and Trades Workers 1.7% 1.8% 1.9%

Community and Personal Service Workers 1.5% 1.5% 1.6%

Clerical and Administrative Workers 2.0% 2.1% 2.2%

Sales Workers 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%

Machinery Operators And Drivers 2.0% 2.1% 2.2%

Labourers 1.9% 2.0% 2.0%

Total 1.9% 2.0% 2.1%


Replacement rates in the high growth scenario are less as higher wage growth and greater job opportunities encourages older workers to stay in the workforce for longer. Replacement rates under the base case are marginally higher as some older workers are less willing to re-train and instead often choose to leave the workforce early rather than seek new employment in another industry. Replacement rates are greatest under the low growth scenario as fewer job opportunities and lower wages growth reduces the opportunity cost of retirement.

The above projections at the 4 digit ANZSCO level are shown in Appendix D.

Table 5.8 below shows the projected net replacement rate across each sector. These sector averages are based on the occupational composition within each particular sector, and do not differ greatly from the average for the resources sector as a whole.

The table also shows the implied number of employed persons replaced per annum for each sector, as an average over 2013 to 2018. While under the high growth scenario the incentive to retire is less (due to a greater income growth and higher opportunity cost of retirement) the average level of retirements is greater given the larger employment base, particularly in resources project construction.

Table 5.8: Projected net replacement rates by sector

Average 2013-2018 High growth Base case Low growth

Rate Persons Rate Persons Rate Persons

Resources project construction 1.9% 1,909 2.0% 1,540 2.1% 1,050 Mining operations 1.9% 4,733 2.1% 5,100 2.1% 5,031 Oil and gas extraction / supply 1.8% 972 1.9% 998 2.0% 985

Total 1.9% 7,576 2.0% 7,507 2.1% 7,019



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5.3 Resources sector demand by post-school qualification

5.3.1 Highest level qualification held

The ABS Survey of Education and Work is the best source of contemporary data on qualification trends at the one-digit ANZSIC and one-digit ANZSCO levels. It is supported by information from the 2011 Census in order to provide a profile of implied skill needs at the 4-digit ANZSCO level. The reporting of qualification levels is at broad levels based on the Australian Qualifications Framework:

Postgraduate qualifications;

Undergraduate qualifications;

Advanced diploma / Diploma;

Certificate III / Certificate IV; and

Certificate I / Certificate II.

Table 5.9 shows the propensity for persons at different broad level occupations across the resources sector to hold qualifications by their highest level qualification in 2013. Later tables in this section examine the expected changes to the propensity to hold qualifications by broad occupational categories under the different scenarios. Note that, in aggregate, all scenarios assume some level of skills deepening to 2018.

Table 5.9: Share of occupational employment by highest level qualification (%) – all sectors, 2013

Highest level qualification Postgrad Undergrad AdvDip

/ Dip Cert III

/ IV Cert I

/ II Total

Australian average

Managers 12.9% 21.6% 11.5% 17.0% 1.5% 64.5% 67.1%

Professionals 24.6% 55.2% 8.8% 6.2% 0.7% 95.4% 96.1%

Technical and trades workers 1.2% 4.7% 7.6% 67.7% 2.3% 83.6% 77.6%

Community and personal service workers

4.5% 12.4% 16.0% 34.7% 3.9% 71.5% 79.5%

Clerical and administrative workers 5.3% 12.8% 12.0% 15.5% 4.0% 49.6% 55.1%

Sales workers 1.9% 8.1% 7.1% 13.9% 2.5% 33.6% 32.8%

Machinery operators and drivers 0.5% 3.1% 4.3% 30.8% 3.8% 42.6% 34.8%

Labourers 1.1% 6.3% 6.1% 20.1% 4.9% 38.5% 38.8%

Total 6.2% 14.7% 7.8% 35.8% 2.7% 67.1% 67.1%

Source: ABS Census, ABS Survey of Education and Work, Deloitte Access Economics.

As Table 5.9 highlights, the most commonly held qualifications across the resources sector are Certificate III / IV qualifications and undergraduate degrees. This is a reflection of the large technical and trade / professional work force employed within this industry.


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While the total share of occupational employment with a post-school qualification in the resources sector is in line with the Australian (economy wide) total, there are notable differences by occupational category. For example, technical and trades workers and machinery operators and drivers have a higher propensity to hold qualifications in the resources sector than the economy wide average — a result that reflects the specialist nature of employment within the resources sector.

Table 5.10 shows the equivalent employment levels by highest level qualification held for the resources sector.

Table 5.10: Level of occupational employment by highest level qualification – all sectors, 2013

Highest level qualification

Postgrad Undergrad AdvDip /

Dip Cert III

/ IV Cert I

/ II Total

Managers 4,341 7,286 3,888 5,741 492 21,749

Professionals 13,709 30,724 4,874 3,452 368 53,127 Technical and trades workers

1,445 5,725 9,270 82,087 2,788 101,317


63 176 227 493 56 1,015

Clerical and administrative workers

1,945 4,724 4,453 5,747 1,482 18,351

Sales workers 40 168 148 288 52 696 Machinery operators and drivers

470 2,786 3,830 27,300 3,394 37,780

Labourers 235 1,365 1,328 4,356 1,057 8,340

Total 22,248 52,955 28,018 129,464 9,690 242,375

Source: ABS Census, ABS Survey of Education and Work, Deloitte Access Economics

As the Australian economy heads down the path of being a higher skill / higher productivity economy over time, the qualification requirements within particular occupations tend to rise over time.

This trend is evident over the past decade and this report includes projections for the qualification profile over time which are consistent with those historic skills deepening trends (unless these are seen as unrealistic or run into maximum constraints) and with the expected outlook for labour productivity growth.

As well as the trend over time for the workforce to have a greater propensity to hold post-school qualifications, increasingly people are also holding more than one post-school qualification. This can occur as a result of further skills deepening (gaining an additional qualification at a higher level), or skills broadening (gaining an additional qualification at the same or lower level as one already held). These trends are also seen as continuing over time.

Advancement in technology poses considerable opportunities and challenges for the resources sector, with digital disruption a key challenge for many sectors. Digital disruption is seen as a key motivator for the continued rapid level of up-skilling (higher propensities to hold post-school qualifications, including a move towards higher level qualifications).


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Compared with 67.1% of the resources workforce estimated to be holding a post-school qualification in 2013, by 2018:

69.9% are expected to hold a post-school qualification in the base case scenario;

69.8% are expected to hold a post-school qualification in high growth; and

69.7% are expected to hold a post-school qualification in low growth.

These changes reflect assumed skills deepening over time, along with some compositional change occurring in each of the scenarios.

Table 5.11: Level of occupational employment by highest level qualification – all sectors, 2018, base case

Highest level qualification Postgrad Undergrad AdvDip /

Dip Cert III /

IV Cert I

/ II Total

Managers 5,354 8,348 4,289 6,549 417 24,957

Professionals 17,503 37,336 4,904 4,149 235 64,127

Technical and trades workers 1,460 6,197 9,201 62,026 2,058 80,941


69 203 301 624 22 1,220


1,965 4,522 4,405 7,537 1,032 19,461


473 2,814 3,976 31,550 3,507 42,321

Labourers 184 1,051 1,040 3,711 888 6,875

Total 27,044 60,618 28,256 116,518 8,202 240,638


Table 5.12: Level of occupational employment by highest level qualification – all sectors, 2018, high growth


Dip Cert III /

IV Cert I

/ II Total

Managers 5,720 8,930 4,606 7,073 450 26,778

Professionals 18,408 39,331 5,185 4,354 246 67,524



74 216 324 671 27 1,312


2,136 4,963 4,878 8,252 1,146 21,374


498 2,959 4,188 33,206 3,686 44,536

Labourers 205 1,191 1,197 4,315 1,009 7,917

Total 28,640 64,518 30,636 130,466 8,928 263,187



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Table 5.13: Level of occupational employment by highest level qualification – all sectors, 2018, low growth


Dip Cert III /

IV Cert I

/ II Total

Managers 4,996 7,720 3,952 5,980 387 23,034

Professionals 16,554 35,103 4,588 3,865 219 60,329



65 190 282 566 22 1,126


1,777 4,044 3,892 6,692 911 17,315


453 2,686 3,779 29,812 3,340 40,069

Labourers 163 901 870 3,052 759 5,746

Total 25,406 56,465 25,785 101,616 7,468 216,739


5.3.2 Additional qualifications required

This section outlines the projected additional qualifications required over time by those employed by broad qualification and under each scenario. These estimates of requirements over time represent the change in the stock of total qualifications held by those employed, and also factor in the additional demand for qualifications created by individual with qualifications that leave the workforce (replacement demand).

Note that additional qualifications required differ from the additional number of workers required. Not all workers hold a post-school qualification. Of those who do, many actually hold more than one post-school qualification (multiple qualification holding).

The following tables provide projections for the future skills needs for those employed by qualification type in the three resources related industries examined. Further, the detailed modelling accompanying this report allows for projected demands in each scenario to be extracted across both dimensions – occupation (by 4-digit ANZSCO) and qualification.

The rate of additional qualifications demanded varies considerably by sector and by scenario, with qualifications associated with BREE major projects falling significantly over time, though at a greater rate under the low growth scenario and at a lesser rate and later under the high growth scenario.

Additional demand growth is much stronger for the mining operations and oil and gas extraction and supply sectors, as past investment translates into additional production capacity.


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Table 5.14 Additional qualifications required by those employed by scenario and broad qualification – Resources project construction

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Base case

Postgraduate 3,208 -405 -2,820 -1,725 -1,898

Undergraduate 8,449 -1,309 -7,681 -4,664 -4,999 Adv. Diploma / Diploma

4,913 -1,020 -4,720 -2,815 -2,888

Certificate III / IV 13,188 -3,055 -13,042 -7,717 -7,721

Certificate I / II 3,738 -966 -3,789 -2,227 -2,188

Total 33,496 -6,755 -32,052 -19,147 -19,696

High growth

Postgraduate 5,296 685 -2,958 -1,999 -2,504

Undergraduate 14,050 1,531 -8,148 -5,467 -6,614 Adv. Diploma / Diploma

8,288 607 -5,101 -3,359 -3,844

Certificate III / IV 22,416 1,307 -14,224 -9,306 -10,302

Certificate I / II 6,413 265 -4,166 -2,708 -2,929

Total 56,462 4,395 -34,597 -22,838 -26,193

Low growth

Postgraduate 203 -848 -2,652 -1,544 -1,229

Undergraduate 368 -2,418 -7,123 -4,099 -3,203 Adv. Diploma / Diploma

62 -1,596 -4,282 -2,409 -1,829

Certificate III / IV -99 -4,529 -11,681 -6,495 -4,852

Certificate I / II -97 -1,356 -3,362 -1,853 -1,368

Total 438 -10,746 -29,100 -16,400 -12,480



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Table 5.15 Additional qualifications required by those employed by scenario and broad qualification – Mining operations

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Base case

Postgraduate 1,147 1,476 1,588 1,412 1,281

Undergraduate 2,542 3,339 3,567 3,090 2,727 Adv. Diploma / Diploma

1,181 1,536 1,635 1,375 1,161

Certificate III / IV 3,270 4,804 5,192 4,306 3,778

Certificate I / II 692 1,090 1,180 952 788

Total 8,832 12,246 13,162 11,135 9,734

High growth

Postgraduate 1,148 1,701 1,816 1,604 1,440


1,197 1,832 1,916 1,601 1,337


Certificate I / II 668 1,303 1,399 1,129 929

Total 8,647 14,252 15,233 12,850 11,123

Low growth

Postgraduate 1,111 1,192 1,354 1,223 1,113


1,102 1,155 1,339 1,143 964


Certificate I / II 677 787 930 756 617

Total 8,632 9,472 10,833 9,281 8,097



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Table 5.16 Additional qualifications required by those employed by scenario and broad qualification – Oil and gas extraction / supply

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Base case

Postgraduate 1,176 1,346 1,338 1,007 904


1,184 1,329 1,278 881 739


Certificate I / II 577 657 629 424 347

Total 7,725 8,836 8,656 6,233 5,421

High growth

Postgraduate 1,138 1,429 1,514 1,214 1,119


1,144 1,418 1,462 1,092 949


Certificate I / II 552 700 724 531 449

Total 7,435 9,374 9,822 7,598 6,804

Low growth

Postgraduate 1,206 1,035 1,032 759 662


1,213 986 951 628 501

Certificate III / IV 1,975 1,687 1,655 1,158 977

Certificate I / II 596 478 462 295 223

Total 7,939 6,676 6,547 4,562 3,810


The remaining tables below provide the occupational dimension to the projected additional qualification demand requirements over time and by industry. Generally, qualifications for those in the managers and professionals occupations show the greatest additional demand over time – though with negative demand associated with resources project construction employment in the base case and low growth scenarios from 2015, and in the high growth scenario from 2016.


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Table 5.17: Additional qualifications required by those employed by scenario and broad occupation – Resources project construction

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Base case

Managers 5,555 -831 -5,038 -3,084 -3,391

Professionals 7,222 -1,439 -6,985 -4,274 -4,488

Technical and trades workers 9,057 -2,357 -9,295 -5,509 -5,525 Community and personal service workers

92 -12 -81 -51 -59

Clerical and administrative workers 4,158 -725 -3,808 -2,332 -2,541

Sales workers 158 -23 -137 -84 -95

Machinery operators and drivers 3,338 -633 -3,067 -1,775 -1,748

Labourers 3,916 -736 -3,641 -2,039 -1,849

Total 33,496 -6,755 -32,052 -19,147 -19,696

High growth

Managers 9,167 1,044 -5,263 -3,553 -4,465

Professionals 12,218 1,037 -7,462 -5,057 -5,969

Technical and trades workers 15,474 669 -10,056 -6,581 -7,372


152 20 -83 -57 -78

Clerical and administrative workers 6,876 652 -3,981 -2,696 -3,360

Sales workers 260 29 -141 -96 -125

Machinery operators and drivers 5,670 452 -3,407 -2,188 -2,341

Labourers 6,644 491 -4,202 -2,610 -2,484

Total 56,462 4,395 -34,597 -22,838 -26,193

Low growth

Managers 321 -1,580 -4,737 -2,751 -2,181

Professionals 67 -2,329 -6,401 -3,679 -2,836

Technical and trades workers -213 -3,358 -8,390 -4,657 -3,465 Community and personal service workers

5 -25 -79 -47 -38

Clerical and administrative workers 184 -1,266 -3,583 -2,068 -1,619

Sales workers 7 -45 -132 -77 -61

Machinery operators and drivers -13 -1,016 -2,714 -1,491 -1,110

Labourers 79 -1,127 -3,065 -1,631 -1,170

Total 438 -10,746 -29,100 -16,400 -12,480



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Table 5.18: Additional qualifications required by those employed by scenario and broad occupation – Mining operations

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Base case

Managers 1,308 1,392 1,487 1,506 1,459

Professionals 1,596 2,751 2,928 2,084 1,547

Technical and trades workers 3,529 4,095 4,114 3,851 3,758 Community and personal service workers

75 91 99 105 91

Clerical and administrative workers 998 937 946 1,006 975

Sales workers 43 48 52 55 55

Machinery operators and drivers 672 2,289 2,904 1,941 1,274

Labourers 612 644 631 587 576

Total 8,832 12,246 13,162 11,135 9,734

High growth

Managers 1,321 1,660 1,752 1,745 1,681

Professionals 1,618 3,458 3,698 2,753 2,116

Technical and trades workers 3,448 4,586 4,545 4,174 3,986


74 103 112 117 107

Clerical and administrative workers 974 1,062 1,058 1,100 1,059


Machinery operators and drivers 600 2,696 3,396 2,338 1,572

Labourers 574 640 620 568 549

Total 8,647 14,252 15,233 12,850 11,123

Low growth

Managers 1,296 1,113 1,272 1,322 1,277

Professionals 1,659 1,959 2,249 1,563 1,093


77 77 87 94 84

Clerical and administrative workers 965 746 801 880 849


Machinery operators and drivers 754 1,759 2,375 1,538 957

Labourers 573 562 560 528 523

Total 8,632 9,472 10,833 9,281 8,097



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Table 5.19: Additional qualifications required by those employed by scenario and broad occupation – Oil and gas extraction / supply

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Base case

Managers 1,273 1,418 1,400 1,070 982

Professionals 3,238 3,835 3,717 2,427 1,954


37 45 46 36 31

Clerical and administrative workers 1,136 1,244 1,206 892 787


Machinery operators and drivers 245 332 364 272 233

Labourers 203 231 234 200 195

Total 7,725 8,836 8,656 6,233 5,421

High growth

Managers 1,233 1,512 1,597 1,307 1,233

Professionals 3,132 4,144 4,346 3,151 2,677

Technical and trades workers 1,485 1,728 1,757 1,436 1,336


35 47 51 43 39

Clerical and administrative workers 1,090 1,319 1,371 1,089 993



Labourers 189 226 238 206 201

Total 7,435 9,374 9,822 7,598 6,804

Low growth

Managers 1,315 1,084 1,073 804 715

Professionals 3,388 2,833 2,734 1,671 1,241

Technical and trades workers 1,517 1,292 1,273 999 915 Community and personal service workers

39 35 36 28 23

Clerical and administrative workers 1,176 938 908 653 553



Labourers 201 190 192 163 158

Total 7,939 6,676 6,547 4,562 3,810



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5.4 Resources sector demand by project phasing

There is interest in skill requirements across various phases of the project lifecycle, such as exploration/planning, construction, operations, maintenance/shut downs and decommissioning.

The information presented to date on workforce composition for the three sectors within resources (that associated with BREE major project construction, mining operations and oil and gas extraction/supply) represents averages across those activities. Individual projects, individual mine sites and individual companies are all likely to have different workforce compositions for various reasons.

There are also a variety of elements within mining operations where the occupational composition may be different to the average for all mining operations, reflecting specialised components of the sector. This is true of exploration and planning activities, which are included within the broader mining operations classification.

Table 5.20 provides the occupational breakdown of exploration and planning activities as drawn from the 2011 Census. This component reflects the ANZSIC classifications exploration and other mining services nfd, and exploration and other mining support services. The exploration componenet is dominated by professionals and managers, while the other mining services component is dominated by machinery operators and drivers as well as techinicians and trade workers.

Table 5.20: Exploration / planning activities, employment by broad occupation

Exploration and planning Census

2011

Managers 3,746

Professionals 5,793

Technicians and Trades Workers 6,623

Community and Personal Service Workers 128

Clerical and Administrative Workers 3,490

Sales Workers 82

Machinery Operators And Drivers 8,748

Labourers 2,897

Total 31,507

Source: Census (2011)

The above table is also detailed at the 4 digit ANZSCO level in Appendix D.

The maintenance /shutdown phase of the mine life cycle is heavily dependent on technicians and trades workers. Specialist trades persons such as maintenance fitters, electricians, and boiler makers are often required during this stage of a mine’s life cycle. They are usually responsible for installation and assembly, maintenance and service, repair and replacement of machinery and equipment.


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A recent study by Kinetic Group6 suggests that the mining maintenance workforce has suffered from labour supply shortages. The study makes use of survey workforce data provided by several large resource sector operations such as Xstrata and Anglo American. Some key findings surrounding the maintenance workforce include:

In 2010-11 the maintenance workforce had a turnover rate 2.6 percentage points higher than the recruitment rate.

Almost a quarter of the maintenance workforce are aged 50 and over.

Female representation is low, at 2.5% of the sample.

Decommissioning of a mine is an important issue for both the mining industry and government. Failure to follow correct procedures when closing a mine site can have serious environmental ramifications.

As with the maintenance and shut down phase of a mine’s life cycle, technicians and trades workers are a key element of this component of the workforce. However, since the broad objective of decommissioning a mine is to leave the area in a safe and environmentally stable condition consistent with its surrounds, a unique skill set is required. Often a specific decommissioning manager is sought as well as technical decommissioning engineers.

6 Annual Workforce Report of the Resource Industry Kinetic Group Heartbeat Report 2012.


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6 Projected skills (post-school qualifications) supply Projections are also developed for the supply of skills (holders of post-school qualifications) into the resources sector. These take into account the completion of post-school qualifications through the domestic training system, as well as the contribution to post-school qualifications which comes from net international migration.

Note that for the labour demand projections three scenarios were considered, relating to different paths for commodity prices and different probabilities for the approval of major projects.

The supply of skills over the next five years is seen as being driven primarily by demographic and policy factors (including funding of the domestic training system). Hence, only a central or base case scenario for skills supply is considered.

6.1 Domestic graduates

Projections of domestic graduates of relevance to the resources sector are developed primarily from the following data series:

Higher Education Statistics (Department of Education); and

VET students and courses data (NCVER).

The modelling is undertaken initially at the qualification and occupation level, and the projections are largely demographically driven. A key variable is the expected number of domestic student qualification completions as a share of the population; that is, a measure of ‘participation’ in post-school education. The modelling of skills supply uses this participation rate together with demographic projections to derive forecasts of qualification completions for relevant occupations by domestic students.

Deloitte Access Economics has traditionally presented these post-school qualifications supply forecasts by qualification at the occupational level. Qualifications attained can be related to a particular occupation for which they are best suited. It is often (though not always) the case that those same qualifications could be employed across several different industries.

Given that this particular report has an industry focus, we have developed a resources industry proxy for the supply of skills (post-school qualifications). This takes the occupational skills supply projections across the economy and maps them to industries based on the occupational composition within each industry shown in the 2011 Census.

Hence using this proxy, those completing qualifications as trades workers would be drawn to the resources sector (as opposed to other sectors), in the same proportion as the resources sector (as opposed to other sectors) employed trades workers in 2011.


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Clearly, if skills (post-school qualifications) can be used across different sectors, there is strong potential for skills supply to move between sectors depending on the relative strength of labour demand at the time people complete their qualifications. Hence, the industry projections of skills supply should be seen as a guideline (based on the average employment experience in 2011), and could be flexible over time if demand conditions were to change.

Table 6.1 shows a potential healthy level of skills supply for the resources sector over time, focused particularly at the Certificate III/IV level. Across all three sectors in total, domestic student skills supply is estimated at 12,298 in 2013, rising (based on moderate population growth) to 13,393 qualifications supplied in 2018.

Table 6.1: Projected domestic student qualification completions by broad qualification and sector

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018


Postgraduate 176 179 183 186 189 192

Undergraduate 546 556 565 573 581 587 Adv. Diploma / Diploma

378 385 391 397 403 408

Certificate III / IV 1,548 1,575 1,603 1,630 1,656 1,680

Certificate I / II 938 955 971 986 999 1,013

Total 3,586 3,650 3,714 3,772 3,828 3,880

Mining operations

Postgraduate 432 442 452 461 469 477

Undergraduate 1,150 1,171 1,191 1,209 1,225 1,239 Adv. Diploma / Diploma

524 536 547 557 566 575


Certificate I / II 2,418 2,462 2,499 2,536 2,571 2,608

Total 7,727 7,883 8,030 8,167 8,297 8,424


Postgraduate 142 146 150 153 157 160


101 103 105 107 110 112

Certificate III / IV 449 461 472 483 493 503

Certificate I / II 16 16 16 16 17 17

Total 985 1,007 1,030 1,051 1,070 1,089


The equivalent information by broad occupational category is presented in Table 6.2. It shows that the expected supply of qualifications in 2013 is notable across professionals (2,761 qualifications in total), technicians and trades workers (2,644), and clerical and administrative workers (2,492).

Detailed occupational data at the 4 digit ANZSCO level is presented in Appendix D. It shows that within each broad occupational group, there tend to be a handful of key detailed occupational groups which are dominant elements, as one would expect given the specialised skills required through much of the resources sector.


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Table 6.2: Projected domestic student qualification completions by broad occupation and sector

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018


Managers 294 300 305 310 315 319

Professionals 579 589 599 608 616 623 Technicians and Trades Workers

1,004 1,022 1,040 1,057 1,073 1,088


3 3 3 3 3 3


749 763 775 787 798 810

Sales Workers 11 11 11 11 11 11 Machinery Operators and Drivers

334 340 346 352 358 363

Labourers 612 623 634 644 654 662

Total 3,586 3,650 3,714 3,772 3,828 3,880

Mining operations

Managers 462 472 482 491 500 508

Professionals 1,840 1,879 1,917 1,952 1,985 2,015 Technicians and Trades Workers

1,349 1,379 1,409 1,437 1,463 1,488


54 56 57 58 59 60


1,551 1,578 1,600 1,622 1,643 1,664


1,050 1,072 1,093 1,113 1,132 1,150

Labourers 1,414 1,441 1,464 1,486 1,508 1,531

Total 7,727 7,883 8,030 8,167 8,297 8,424


Managers 114 116 118 120 122 125


291 299 307 315 322 330


9 9 9 9 9 9


192 196 199 203 206 210


21 22 22 23 23 23

Labourers 16 16 17 17 18 18

Total 985 1,007 1,030 1,051 1,070 1,089



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6.2 Net international migration

Projections for the contribution into the resources sector of persons with post-school qualifications from net international migration are displayed in this section.

The estimates for 2013 are based on migrant and Census information on qualifications held and the occupational skills of migrants. As with domestic student completions, a proxy to the resources sector is provided using 2011 Census information on the occupational composition of employment within each industry sector (discussed in section 6.1).

The data shows that in 2013, net international migration is estimated to have contributed 1,420 skilled workers (persons with post-school qualifications) to the resources sector, with this dominated by undergraduate qualifications (56% of the total).

This projection is expected to grow slowly over time, in line with an expectation that the level of net international migration per annum will also move up slowly over time.

Table 6.3: Projected net international migration with post-school qualifications by broad qualification and sector

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018


Postgraduate 35 35 35 36 37 38


70 70 71 73 74 76


Certificate I / II 53 53 53 54 54 55

Total 358 355 360 368 376 385

Mining operations



147 148 151 155 160 165


Certificate I / II 44 43 43 43 44 44

Total 930 916 921 944 966 989




12 12 11 11 12 12


Certificate I / II 17 17 18 18 19 19

Total 132 130 130 133 137 141


As one might expect, the occupational mix of migrants for the resources sector is led by professionals (48% of the total in 2013), but also includes a notable proportion of


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machinery operators and drivers (26% of the total in 2013). Detailed occupational projections are shown in Appendix D.

Table 6.4: Projected net international migration with post-school qualifications by broad occupation and sector

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018


Managers 85 86 88 90 92 94


16 14 14 14 15 15


1 1 1 1 1 1


20 21 21 22 22 23


87 87 88 90 91 92

Labourers 52 50 49 50 50 50

Total 358 355 360 368 376 385

Mining operations

Managers 94 94 94 96 98 101


12 9 7 8 8 9


3 3 3 3 3 3


20 19 19 19 19 20


280 273 273 277 280 284

Labourers 10 10 10 11 11 11

Total 930 916 921 944 966 989


Managers 24 25 25 26 26 27


19 19 19 20 20 21


1 1 1 1 1 1


8 8 8 8 8 8


8 7 8 8 8 8

Labourers 1 1 1 1 1 1

Total 132 130 130 133 137 141



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6.3 Net interstate migration

The projections of skills (post-school qualification) supply for the resources sector and its components are presented at the national level.

Labour of course can be mobile between States and between regions, which is particularly important for the resources sector given the remote location of many facilities, and particularly for the construction phase of projects, which has a limited time span.

Chart 6.1 shows net interstate migration movements during 2011 for the three components of the resources sector. It shows that in response to significant labour demand, a number of people moved to Western Australia from other States and Territories and were working in the WA resources sector. Indeed, the only other State to show a net gain of workers in 2011 was Queensland, and that was in relation to oil and gas extraction and supply. The number of workers moving in net terms is relatively modest in comparison with the number of domestic student completions per annum.

Chart 6.1: Net interstate migration by sector, 2011

Source: ABS Census 2011

It is likely that in the future there will continue to be some degree of labour mobility across States and regions towards areas of stronger employment opportunities.

An alternate to interstate migration is a Fly-In/Fly-Out workforce, which has gained in prominence in recent years. Chart 6.2 shows the net FIFO levels by resources sector in 2011, with WA again the clear net FIFO beneficiary across States. The Northern Territory also had a reasonable number of workers in the resources sector flying in and out from other States and Territories, with all other States and Territories showing a net loss from FIFO.

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

NSW VIC QLD SA WA TAS NT ACT

Resource Project construction Mining operations Oil and gas extraction / supply

Net interstate migration


61


Chart 6.2: Net FIFO levels by sector, 2011

Source: ABS Census 2011

6.4 Flow of additional skills

Table 6.5 and Table 6.6 combine the projections for domestic student completions and the expected contribution from net international migration to provide projections of the supply of additional skills (post-school qualifications) to the resources sector over time. Detailed occupational projections are shown in Appendix D.

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

NSW VIC QLD SA WA TAS NT ACT

Resource Project construction Mining operations Oil and gas extraction / supply

Net FIFO


62


Table 6.5: Projected total qualification supply by broad qualification and sector

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018


Postgraduate 211 214 218 222 226 230


448 455 462 470 477 484


Certificate I / II 991 1,008 1,024 1,040 1,053 1,068

Total 3,944 4,005 4,074 4,140 4,204 4,265

Mining operations

Postgraduate 522 530 540 551 562 572

Undergraduate 1,711 1,728 1,754 1,786 1,816 1,844 Adv. Diploma / Diploma

671 684 698 712 726 740


Certificate I / II 2,462 2,505 2,542 2,579 2,615 2,652

Total 8,657 8,799 8,951 9,111 9,263 9,413


Postgraduate 157 160 163 167 171 175


113 115 117 119 121 124


Certificate I / II 32 33 34 35 35 36

Total 1,116 1,137 1,159 1,184 1,207 1,230



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Table 6.6: Projected total qualification supply by broad occupation and sector

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018


Managers 379 386 393 400 407 413


1,020 1,036 1,054 1,071 1,088 1,103


4 4 4 4 4 4


769 784 796 809 820 833


421 427 434 442 449 455

Labourers 664 673 683 694 704 712

Total 3,943 4,006 4,073 4,142 4,205 4,264

Mining operations

Managers 557 566 576 587 598 609

Professionals 2,350 2,387 2,432 2,483 2,531 2,577 Technicians and Trades Workers

1,361 1,388 1,416 1,444 1,471 1,496


58 59 60 61 62 63


1,570 1,597 1,619 1,641 1,662 1,684


1,330 1,345 1,367 1,390 1,412 1,434

Labourers 1,424 1,451 1,474 1,497 1,519 1,542

Total 8,657 8,799 8,951 9,111 9,263 9,413


Managers 138 140 143 146 149 151


310 318 326 335 342 350


9 9 10 10 10 10


200 204 207 211 215 218


29 29 30 30 31 31

Labourers 17 17 17 18 18 19

Total 1,116 1,137 1,159 1,184 1,207 1,230



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7 Supply-demand comparison This chapter provides a comparison of the supply and demand projections for post-school qualifications in those industries that make up the resources sector in Australia.

7.1 Supply less demand (total qualifications)

The supply-demand comparison is done by comparing the flow of additional qualifications demanded with the flow of additional qualifications supplied over a year. Note that the tables below do not seek to estimate any current divergence between supply and demand at the present time.

The following tables examine the balance between the supply and demand for post school qualifications in terms of total qualifications supplied and demanded of employed persons. A supply and demand comparison is also undertaken at the broad occupation level. Any instance of demand exceeding supply (or supply exceeding demand) will be greater in terms of the number of qualifications than it will be in terms of the equivalent number of individuals affected as individuals have a propensity to hold multiple qualifications (a trend which has been increasing over time).

Additional qualifications which may be generated over time for those unemployed or not in the labour force are not considered in the tables below.

Table 7.1 shows the total flow of qualifications for all sectors by scenario. The data shows additional qualification supply and demand, within a given year.

Table 7.1: Projected qualification supply-demand comparison by scenario – all sectors

` 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Base case

Total demand 50,053 14,327 -10,234 -1,780 -4,541 Total supply 13,941 14,184 14,435 14,674 14,908


High growth

Total demand 72,544 28,021 -9,542 -2,389 -8,267

Total supply 13,941 14,184 14,435 14,674 14,908

Balance (supply less demand) -58,603 -13,837 23,977 17,063 23,175

Low growth

Total demand 17,009 5,402 -11,720 -2,556 -573 Total supply 13,941 14,184 14,435 14,674 14,908



There are notable differences in the supply-demand comparison for the three individual sectors. Notably, the projections suggest a general undersupply of qualifications into the mining operations and oil and gas extraction / supply industries. On the other hand, activity associated with the construction of major projects from the BREE database is highly


65


variable, so demand exceeds normal supply to this industry significantly in 2014, but thereafter supply is much higher than the additional demand required (with demand for additional qualifications negative from 2015 in the base case and low growth scenarios as the employment base falls, and from 2016 in the high growth scenario).

Note that the targeting of new skills supply to particular industry sectors is something of an artificial construct. Qualifications attained are best related to the occupations to which they are most suited. In most cases (though not all), there will be more than one industry sector where such skills could be utilised. Graduates in 2015 might have headed to resources project construction, when faced with a declining employment base in that sector, are likely to seek jobs in other sectors where their skills might also be utilised, which might more commonly include other areas of construction, manufacturing, utilities or transport.

For all industries, the divergence between the supply and demand for qualifications is greatest under the high growth scenario, with the latter showing a general under supply of qualifications in the earlier years. However, for all scenarios over time the fall in qualifications demand from major project construction more than offsets the additional demand from the mining operations and oil and gas extraction / supply sectors over time.

Table 7.2: Projected qualification supply-demand comparison by scenario – Resources project construction

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Base case

Total demand 33,496 -6,755 -32,052 -19,147 -19,696 Total supply 4,005 4,074 4,140 4,204 4,265


High growth

Total demand 56,462 4,395 -34,597 -22,838 -26,193

Total supply 4,005 4,074 4,140 4,204 4,265


Low growth

Total demand 438 -10,746 -29,100 -16,400 -12,480

Total supply 4,005 4,074 4,140 4,204 4,265

Balance (supply less demand) 3,567 14,820 33,240 20,604 16,745



66


Table 7.3: Projected qualification supply-demand comparison by scenario – Mining operations

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Base case


Balance (supply less demand) -33 -3,295 -4,051 -1,872 -321

High growth


Balance (supply less demand) 152 -5,301 -6,122 -3,587 -1,710

Low growth


Balance (supply less demand) 167 -521 -1,722 -18 1,316


Note: total demand for qualifications in mining operations in 2014 is projected to be lower in the high growth scenario than the base case due to crowding out effects from the higher levels of resources project construction activity.

Table 7.4: Projected qualification supply-demand comparison by scenario – Oil and gas extraction / supply

Oil and gas extraction / supply 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Base case



High growth



Low growth

Total demand 7,939 6,676 6,547 4,562 3,810

Total supply 1,137 1,159 1,184 1,207 1,230



Note: total demand for qualifications in oil and gas extraction / supply in 2014 is projected to be lower in the high growth scenario than the base case and low growth scenarios due to crowding out effects from the higher levels of resources project construction activity.

7.2 Supply less demand (by qualification)

This section provides a comparison of the supply and demand for each sector by broad qualification level.

For resources project construction, there is considerable oversupply across scenarios in 2016 and 2017, with this particularly true for qualifications at the Certificate III/IV level.


67


For mining operations there is generally an undersupply of qualifications, which is particularly seen at the postgraduate and undergraduate level, but not at the Certificate level.

Oil and gas extraction and supply also shows a general undersupply of qualifications, but in this case that is seen across all qualification levels for all scenarios.

Table 7.5: Projected qualification supply-demand comparison by scenario and broad qualification – Resources project construction

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Base case

Postgraduate -2,994 623 3,042 1,951 2,128

Undergraduate -7,746 2,024 8,409 5,404 5,750

Adv. Diploma / Diploma -4,458 1,482 5,190 3,292 3,372

Certificate III / IV -11,563 4,708 14,723 9,424 9,453

Certificate I / II -2,730 1,990 4,829 3,280 3,256

Total -29,491 10,829 36,192 23,351 23,961

High growth

Postgraduate -5,082 -467 3,180 2,225 2,734

Undergraduate -13,347 -816 8,876 6,207 7,365

Adv. Diploma / Diploma -7,833 -145 5,571 3,836 4,328

Certificate III / IV -20,791 346 15,905 11,013 12,034

Certificate I / II -5,405 759 5,206 3,761 3,997

Total -52,457 -321 38,737 27,042 30,458

Low growth

Postgraduate 11 1,066 2,874 1,770 1,459

Undergraduate 335 3,133 7,851 4,839 3,954

Adv. Diploma / Diploma 393 2,058 4,752 2,886 2,313


Certificate I / II 1,105 2,380 4,402 2,906 2,436

Total 3,567 14,820 33,240 20,604 16,745



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Table 7.6: Projected qualification supply-demand comparison by scenario and broad qualification – Mining operations

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Base case

Postgraduate -617 -936 -1,037 -850 -709

Undergraduate -814 -1,585 -1,781 -1,274 -883

Adv. Diploma / Diploma -497 -838 -923 -649 -421

Certificate III / IV 82 -1,387 -1,709 -761 -173

Certificate I / II 1,813 1,452 1,399 1,663 1,864

Total -33 -3,295 -4,051 -1,872 -321

High growth

Postgraduate -618 -1,161 -1,265 -1,042 -868

Undergraduate -808 -2,129 -2,326 -1,726 -1,250

Adv. Diploma / Diploma -513 -1,134 -1,204 -875 -597

Certificate III / IV 253 -2,117 -2,507 -1,428 -718

Certificate I / II 1,837 1,239 1,180 1,486 1,723

Total 152 -5,301 -6,122 -3,587 -1,710

Low growth

Postgraduate -581 -652 -803 -661 -541

Undergraduate -720 -876 -1,201 -811 -478


Certificate III / IV 58 -291 -740 12 523

Certificate I / II 1,828 1,755 1,649 1,859 2,035

Total 167 -521 -1,722 -18 1,316



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Table 7.7: Projected qualification supply-demand comparison by scenario and broad qualification – Oil and gas extraction / supply

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Base case

Postgraduate -1,016 -1,183 -1,171 -836 -729

Undergraduate -2,509 -2,912 -2,844 -1,954 -1,651

Adv. Diploma / Diploma -1,069 -1,212 -1,159 -760 -615

Certificate III / IV -1,449 -1,746 -1,704 -1,089 -884

Certificate I / II -544 -623 -594 -389 -311

Total -6,588 -7,677 -7,472 -5,026 -4,191

High growth

Postgraduate -978 -1,266 -1,347 -1,043 -944

Undergraduate -2,406 -3,113 -3,275 -2,458 -2,163

Adv. Diploma / Diploma -1,029 -1,301 -1,343 -971 -825

Certificate III / IV -1,364 -1,868 -1,984 -1,424 -1,228

Certificate I / II -519 -666 -689 -496 -413

Total -6,298 -8,215 -8,638 -6,391 -5,574

Low growth

Postgraduate -1,046 -872 -865 -588 -487

Undergraduate -2,582 -2,116 -2,067 -1,336 -1,056

Adv. Diploma / Diploma -1,098 -869 -832 -507 -377

Certificate III / IV -1,513 -1,214 -1,172 -665 -473

Certificate I / II -563 -444 -427 -260 -187

Total -6,802 -5,517 -5,363 -3,355 -2,580


7.3 Supply less demand (by broad occupation)

This section provides a comparison of the supply and demand for qualifications for the three sectors by broad occupation.

Table 7.8 shows that technical and trades occupations as well as machinery operators and drivers show a significant over supply of qualifications in the major projects construction sector post 2015 as many of the current agenda of major resource related construction projects move into the production phase.

Mining operations generally shows a shortage of managers and technical and trades workers (Table 7.9), though the picture across other broad occupations is more mixed over time. Professionals for example as seen as marginally undersupplied from 2014 to 2016 across the high and base case scenarios, but adequately supplied in 2018 in all scenarios and throughout the low growth scenario.

For oil and gas extraction and supply (Table 7.10), there is projected to be a more notable shortfall of professionals across all scenarios and all years. That is also true for technical and trades occupations, though to a much smaller extent.


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Table 7.8: Projected qualification supply-demand comparison by scenario and broad occupation, Resources project construction

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Base case

Managers -5,169 1,224 5,438 3,491 3,804

Professionals -6,537 2,136 7,695 4,995 5,220

Technicians and Trades Workers -8,021 3,411 10,366 6,597 6,628


-88 16 85 55 63

Clerical and Administrative Workers -3,374 1,521 4,617 3,152 3,374

Sales Workers -147 35 149 96 107

Machinery Operators And Drivers -2,911 1,067 3,509 2,224 2,203

Labourers -3,243 1,419 4,335 2,743 2,561

Total -29,491 10,829 36,192 23,351 23,961

High growth

Managers -8,781 -651 5,663 3,960 4,878

Professionals -11,533 -340 8,172 5,778 6,701

Technicians and Trades Workers -14,438 385 11,127 7,669 8,475


-148 -16 87 61 82

Clerical and Administrative Workers -6,092 144 4,790 3,516 4,193

Sales Workers -249 -17 153 108 137

Machinery Operators And Drivers -5,243 -18 3,849 2,637 2,796

Labourers -5,971 192 4,896 3,314 3,196

Total -52,457 -321 38,737 27,042 30,458

Low growth

Managers 65 1,973 5,137 3,158 2,594

Professionals 618 3,026 7,111 4,400 3,568

Technicians and Trades Workers 1,249 4,412 9,461 5,745 4,568


-1 29 83 51 42

Clerical and Administrative Workers 600 2,062 4,392 2,888 2,452

Sales Workers 4 57 144 89 73

Machinery Operators And Drivers 440 1,450 3,156 1,940 1,565

Labourers 594 1,810 3,759 2,335 1,882

Total 3,567 14,820 33,240 20,604 16,745



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Table 7.9: Projected qualification supply-demand comparison by scenario and broad occupation, Mining operations

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Base case

Managers -742 -816 -900 -908 -850

Professionals 791 -319 -445 447 1,030

Technicians and Trades Workers -2,141 -2,679 -2,670 -2,380 -2,262


-16 -31 -38 -43 -28

Clerical and Administrative Workers 599 682 695 656 709

Sales Workers -36 -41 -45 -48 -48

Machinery Operators And Drivers 673 -922 -1,514 -529 160

Labourers 839 830 866 932 966

Total -33 -3,295 -4,051 -1,872 -321

High growth

Managers -755 -1,084 -1,165 -1,147 -1,072

Professionals 769 -1,026 -1,215 -222 461



-15 -43 -51 -55 -44


Sales Workers -32 -41 -45 -47 -47

Machinery Operators And Drivers 745 -1,329 -2,006 -926 -138

Labourers 877 834 877 951 993

Total 152 -5,301 -6,122 -3,587 -1,710

Low growth

Managers -730 -537 -685 -724 -668

Professionals 728 473 234 968 1,484



-18 -17 -26 -32 -21


Sales Workers -35 -34 -39 -43 -42

Machinery Operators And Drivers 591 -392 -985 -126 477

Labourers 878 912 937 991 1,019

Total 167 -521 -1,722 -18 1,316



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Table 7.10: : Projected qualification supply-demand comparison by scenario and broad occupation, Oil and gas extraction / supply

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Base case

Managers -1,133 -1,275 -1,254 -921 -831

Professionals -2,820 -3,410 -3,284 -1,986 -1,504

Technicians and Trades Workers -1,228 -1,351 -1,296 -947 -845


-28 -35 -36 -26 -21

Clerical and Administrative Workers -932 -1,037 -995 -677 -569

Sales Workers -46 -54 -57 -46 -42

Machinery Operators And Drivers -216 -302 -334 -241 -202

Labourers -186 -214 -216 -182 -176

Total -6,588 -7,677 -7,472 -5,026 -4,191

High growth

Managers -1,093 -1,369 -1,451 -1,158 -1,082

Professionals -2,714 -3,719 -3,913 -2,710 -2,227

Technicians and Trades Workers -1,167 -1,402 -1,422 -1,094 -986


-26 -37 -41 -33 -29

Clerical and Administrative Workers -886 -1,112 -1,160 -874 -775

Sales Workers -43 -57 -63 -54 -51


Labourers -172 -209 -220 -188 -182

Total -6,298 -8,215 -8,638 -6,391 -5,574

Low growth

Managers -1,175 -941 -927 -655 -564

Professionals -2,970 -2,408 -2,301 -1,230 -791

Technicians and Trades Workers -1,199 -966 -938 -657 -565


-30 -25 -26 -18 -13

Clerical and Administrative Workers -972 -731 -697 -438 -335

Sales Workers -48 -42 -44 -35 -32


Labourers -184 -173 -174 -145 -139

Total -6,802 -5,517 -5,363 -3,355 -2,580


7.4 Supply less demand (by skilled persons)

The tables presented in this chapter to date show the estimated supply-demand comparison in terms of the total number of qualifications. But as noted earlier in the report, there is a high propensity for those who hold a post-school qualification to hold more than one such qualification. Indeed, a proportion of future qualification requirements are driven by skills deepening and skills broadening relating to multiple qualification holding.


73


The tables below provide estimates of how many individuals any projected over-supply or under-supply of qualifications is likely to relate to (by qualification type and by broad level occupation). They are derived from the projections of total qualifications, dividing through by the average propensity to hold multiple post-qualifications by qualification type.

As an example, these numbers suggest that in the high growth scenario, in 2018 for mining operations, demand is projected to exceed supply by around 1,711 qualifications (see Table 7.9). Given that many of those employed may hold more than one post-school qualification, that is equivalent to an under-supply of some 1,181 individuals completing post-school qualifications (see Table 7.14).

Within those same tables, as further examples, the data by occupation can be interpreted as follows:

The demand for additional qualifications for managers in 2018 for mining operations in the base case is projected to exceed expected supply by 850 qualifications (see Table 7.9). That equates to an under-supply of some 476 individuals completing post-school qualifications to work as managers in this sector (see Table 7.14).

The demand for additional qualifications for professionals in 2018 for mining operations in the base case is projected to be less than expected supply by 1,030 qualifications (see Table 7.9). That equates to an over-supply of some 539 individuals completing post-school qualifications to work as professionals in this sector.

Table 7.11: Projected qualification supply-demand comparison by scenario and broad qualification – Resources project construction - number of people

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Base case

Postgraduate -1,838 404 1,915 1,233 1,336

Undergraduate -4,793 1,319 5,286 3,394 3,573

Adv. Diploma / Diploma -2,692 940 3,160 1,995 2,017

Certificate III / IV -9,319 4,001 12,079 7,731 7,681

Certificate I / II -682 513 1,169 773 744

Total -19,324 7,178 23,610 15,125 15,351

High growth

Postgraduate -3,140 -60 2,006 1,406 1,710

Undergraduate -8,310 -105 5,587 3,896 4,555

Adv. Diploma / Diploma -4,762 -18 3,399 2,325 2,579

Certificate III / IV -16,867 58 13,073 9,034 9,741

Certificate I / II -1,365 39 1,268 889 913

Total -34,444 -86 25,333 17,550 19,498

Low growth

Postgraduate 8 683 1,807 1,119 923

Undergraduate 239 2,012 4,925 3,037 2,475

Adv. Diploma / Diploma 274 1,286 2,888 1,749 1,394


Certificate I / II 317 601 1,060 684 560

Total 2,440 9,758 21,622 13,315 10,745



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Table 7.12: Projected qualification supply-demand comparison by scenario and broad occupation, Resources project construction - number of people

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Base case

Managers -2,988 702 3,091 1,967 2,127

Professionals -3,629 1,178 4,217 2,720 2,824

Technicians and Trades Workers -5,787 2,446 7,393 4,677 4,670


-54 9 52 33 38


Sales Workers -99 23 100 64 71

Machinery Operators And Drivers -2,239 818 2,679 1,691 1,669

Labourers -2,493 1,087 3,312 2,090 1,944

Total -19,324 7,178 23,610 15,125 15,351

High growth

Managers -5,075 -373 3,218 2,231 2,726

Professionals -6,399 -188 4,476 3,145 3,622

Technicians and Trades Workers -10,416 276 7,935 5,436 5,970


-91 -10 53 37 49


Sales Workers -168 -12 103 72 92

Machinery Operators And Drivers -4,035 -14 2,940 2,006 2,119

Labourers -4,588 147 3,739 2,524 2,426

Total -34,444 -86 25,333 17,550 19,498

Low growth

Managers 38 1,131 2,919 1,779 1,449

Professionals 343 1,669 3,896 2,395 1,929

Technicians and Trades Workers 901 3,165 6,747 4,072 3,218


-1 18 50 31 25

Clerical and Administrative Workers 362 1,239 2,631 1,724 1,459

Sales Workers 3 38 97 59 49

Machinery Operators And Drivers 338 1,112 2,410 1,475 1,186

Labourers 457 1,388 2,874 1,779 1,429

Total 2,440 9,758 21,622 13,315 10,745



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Table 7.13: Projected qualification supply-demand comparison by scenario and broad qualification – Mining operations - number of people

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Base case

Postgraduate -396 -600 -663 -542 -451

Undergraduate -493 -954 -1,065 -758 -522


Certificate III / IV 66 -1,124 -1,379 -612 -139

Certificate I / II 445 348 327 380 416

Total -89 -2,288 -2,806 -1,351 -333

High growth

Postgraduate -397 -744 -809 -665 -552

Undergraduate -489 -1,281 -1,391 -1,026 -739


Certificate III / IV 206 -1,714 -2,022 -1,147 -574

Certificate I / II 451 297 276 340 385

Total 52 -3,562 -4,112 -2,418 -1,181

Low growth

Postgraduate -373 -418 -513 -423 -344

Undergraduate -436 -527 -718 -482 -282


Certificate III / IV 47 -236 -597 10 419

Certificate I / II 448 420 386 425 454

Total 60 -481 -1,289 -151 719



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Table 7.14: Projected qualification supply-demand comparison by scenario and broad occupation, Mining operations - number of people

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Base case

Managers -425 -464 -510 -511 -476

Professionals 425 -170 -236 235 539



-10 -19 -23 -26 -17


Sales Workers -24 -27 -30 -32 -32

Machinery Operators And Drivers 515 -703 -1,152 -401 121

Labourers 611 603 629 675 699

Total -89 -2,288 -2,806 -1,351 -333

High growth

Managers -432 -617 -659 -645 -600

Professionals 413 -547 -643 -117 241



-9 -26 -31 -33 -26


Sales Workers -22 -28 -30 -32 -32

Machinery Operators And Drivers 570 -1,014 -1,526 -702 -104

Labourers 638 606 636 689 718

Total 52 -3,562 -4,112 -2,418 -1,181

Low growth

Managers -418 -306 -388 -408 -374

Professionals 391 253 124 510 777



-11 -11 -16 -20 -12


Sales Workers -23 -23 -26 -29 -29

Machinery Operators And Drivers 452 -299 -749 -96 360

Labourers 639 664 681 719 738

Total 60 -481 -1,289 -151 719



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Table 7.15: Projected qualification supply-demand comparison by scenario and broad qualification – Oil and gas extraction / supply – number of people

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Base case

Postgraduate -660 -767 -758 -539 -469

Undergraduate -1,528 -1,762 -1,710 -1,167 -980


Certificate III / IV -1,040 -1,250 -1,216 -775 -627

Certificate I / II -121 -133 -121 -76 -58

Total -3,966 -4,593 -4,457 -3,009 -2,513

High growth

Postgraduate -635 -820 -871 -673 -607

Undergraduate -1,465 -1,883 -1,968 -1,468 -1,284


Certificate III / IV -979 -1,337 -1,416 -1,013 -871

Certificate I / II -115 -142 -141 -97 -77

Total -3,783 -4,899 -5,129 -3,795 -3,303

Low growth

Postgraduate -680 -635 -629 -428 -354

Undergraduate -1,571 -1,377 -1,339 -863 -679


Certificate III / IV -1,087 -933 -899 -509 -361

Certificate I / II -125 -207 -198 -121 -87

Total -4,082 -3,729 -3,625 -2,318 -1,823



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Table 7.16: Projected qualification supply-demand comparison by scenario and broad occupation - Oil and gas extraction / supply - number of people

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Base case

Managers -628 -703 -688 -502 -450

Professionals -1,549 -1,861 -1,781 -1,071 -807

Technicians and Trades Workers -875 -958 -915 -665 -591


-18 -22 -22 -17 -13


Sales Workers -31 -37 -39 -31 -29


Labourers -136 -155 -157 -132 -127

Total -3,966 -4,593 -4,457 -3,009 -2,513

High growth

Managers -605 -754 -796 -632 -587

Professionals -1,490 -2,029 -2,122 -1,461 -1,193

Technicians and Trades Workers -831 -993 -1,003 -768 -689


-16 -23 -26 -21 -18


Sales Workers -29 -39 -43 -37 -35


Labourers -125 -152 -159 -136 -132

Total -3,783 -4,899 -5,129 -3,795 -3,303

Low growth

Managers -651 -941 -927 -655 -564

Professionals -1,631 -1,314 -1,248 -663 -424

Technicians and Trades Workers -854 -685 -662 -462 -395


-19 -16 -16 -11 -8


Sales Workers -32 -29 -30 -24 -22


Labourers -134 -126 -126 -105 -101

Total -4,082 -3,729 -3,625 -2,318 -1,823


The supply-demand comparison for skilled persons can also be undertaken at the detailed occupational (4 digit ANZSCO) level. The tables below show the relevant projections for the top ten occupations for each industry sector.

Ranking of the top ten occupations is according to estimated levels of employment in 2013, with these employment levels also shown within the tables as the first column of data.


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Table 7.17: Projected qualification supply-demand comparison by scenario, Resources project construction - number of people (top ten detailed occupations)

2013 Emp.

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Base case

O3411 Electricians 11175 -1319 470 1545 954 952

O3341 Plumbers 8781 -1044 361 1206 741 739

O3312 Carpenters and Joiners 8300 -992 336 1134 695 693

O3322 Painting Trades Workers 4979 -632 164 643 379 378

O7212 Earthmoving Plant Operators 3979 -1238 411 1414 880 868

O8212 Concreters 3766 -1114 221 1050 591 535

O3332 Plasterers 3558 -452 117 459 270 269

O3311 Bricklayers and Stonemasons 2771 -350 94 360 213 212

O8211 Building and Plumbing Labourers 2265

-417 387 887 613 580

O3334 Wall and Floor Tilers 2020 -257 67 261 154 153

Top ten total 51595 -7815 2628 8957 5490 5380

High growth

O3411 Electricians 11175 -2325 -2 1662 1119 1234

O3341 Plumbers 8781 -1835 -9 1298 871 961

O3312 Carpenters and Joiners 8300 -1739 -14 1222 818 903

O3322 Painting Trades Workers 4979 -1080 -46 695 452 504

O7212 Earthmoving Plant Operators 3979 -2206 -38 1554 1050 1111

O8212 Concreters 3766 -1896 -130 1209 753 715

O3332 Plasterers 3558 -772 -33 496 323 359

O3311 Bricklayers and Stonemasons 2771 -599 -23 389 254 282

O8211 Building and Plumbing Labourers

2265 -888 176 983 710 688

O3334 Wall and Floor Tilers 2020 -438 -19 282 184 204

Top ten total 51595 -13780 -138 9791 6533 6962

Low growth

O3411 Electricians 11175 135 626 1347 878 636

O3341 Plumbers 8781 98 484 1051 682 491

O3312 Carpenters and Joiners 8300 88 452 988 639 459

O3322 Painting Trades Workers 4979 16 234 555 345 237

O7212 Earthmoving Plant Operators 3979 152 569 1218 812 608

O8212 Concreters 3766 -12 333 848 511 343

O3332 Plasterers 3558 11 167 396 246 169

O3311 Bricklayers and Stonemasons 2771 11 132 311 194 134

O8211 Building and Plumbing Labourers

2265 245 455 766 565 465

O3334 Wall and Floor Tilers 2020 6 95 225 140 96

Top ten total 51595 749 3548 7706 5012 3637



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Table 7.18: Projected qualification supply-demand comparison by scenario, Mining operations - number of people (top ten detailed occupations)

2013 Emp. 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Base case

O7122 Drillers, Miners and Shot Firers 49125 346 -458 -751 -262 84

O3232 Metal Fitters and Machinists 23664 -933 -1105 -1109 -1025 -987

O3129 Other Building and Engineering Technicians 13281 -468 -569 -571 -512 -486

O7331 Truck Drivers 11864 -43 -214 -279 -175 -105

O1335 Production Managers 8765 -244 -270 -291 -285 -267

O3411 Electricians 8474 -131 -217 -222 -175 -148

O2344 Geologists and Geophysicists 7249 165 87 83 154 197

O3223 Structural Steel and Welding Trades Workers 5817 -222 -238 -232 -224 -225

O2336 Mining Engineers 5673 9 -87 -101 -31 16

O7212 Earthmoving Plant Operators 5496 22 -56 -86 -39 -7

Top ten total 139408 -1498 -3129 -3559 -2574 -1928

High growth

O7122 Drillers, Miners and Shot Firers 49125 379 -674 -1010 -470 -72



O7331 Truck Drivers 11864 -34 -252 -325 -212 -132


O3411 Electricians 8474 -125 -285 -284 -223 -183



O2336 Mining Engineers 5673 7 -146 -164 -85 -29

O7212 Earthmoving Plant Operators 5496 27 -72 -106 -55 -18

Top ten total 139408 -1411 -3895 -4352 -3211 -2416

Low growth

O7122 Drillers, Miners and Shot Firers 49125 309 -183 -477 -54 246



O7331 Truck Drivers 11864 -53 -162 -227 -136 -74


O3411 Electricians 8474 -103 -110 -138 -108 -89



O2336 Mining Engineers 5673 5 -23 -45 11 51

O7212 Earthmoving Plant Operators 5496 18 -34 -63 -22 7

Top ten total 139408 -1399 -2033 -2626 -1843 -1303



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Table 7.19: Projected qualification supply-demand comparison by scenario, Oil and gas extraction / supply - number of people (top ten detailed occupations)

2013 Emp.

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Base case

O3992 Chemical, Gas, Petroleum and Power Generation Plant Operators 2060 -191 -221 -204 -122 -96

O2336 Mining Engineers 1940 -284 -344 -325 -193 -145

O2211 Accountants 1702 -193 -233 -223 -134 -100

O7122 Drillers, Miners and Shot Firers 1328 -96 -133 -144 -102 -85

O2344 Geologists and Geophysicists 1306 -191 -232 -218 -127 -93


O5111 Contract, Program and Project Administrators 976 -75 -86 -81 -51 -41

O3341 Plumbers 912 -38 -30 -33 -34 -35

O5511 Accounting Clerks 900 -65 -71 -68 -46 -39

O2335 Industrial, Mechanical and Production Engineers 830 -105 -128 -122 -70 -51

Top ten total 13174 -1407 -1663 -1597 -1013 -804

High growth



O2211 Accountants 1702 -185 -254 -267 -183 -149





O3341 Plumbers 912 -30 -25 -31 -31 -32



Top ten total 13174 -1349 -1788 -1855 -1312 -1100

Low growth



O2211 Accountants 1702 -204 -164 -156 -82 -52





O3341 Plumbers 912 -35 -25 -30 -30 -30



Top ten total 13174 -1445 -1165 -1113 -635 -449



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8 Conclusions This report has presented projections for the demand and supply of qualifications to 2018 for three components of the resources sector, based on different scenarios for major project transition and commodity price paths.

On the demand side, the modelling has taken into account the volume of qualifications demanded resulting from employment growth, replacement for those who permanently exit the workforce, and the increase in qualifications resulting from skills broadening and deepening (that is, the propensity for individuals to hold a post-school qualification at all, and then the propensity for individuals to hold multiple qualifications).

The supply of qualifications has been modelled as the additional flow of qualifications resulting from domestic student qualification completions (driven largely by recent completion rates relative to population and demographic projections), and the contribution to qualifications from net overseas migration.

Understanding the nation’s future skill needs involves a combination of underlying structural economic and demographic trends, balanced against a sometimes volatile economic cycle. The latter is a feature of the Australian economy at present, and particularly for the resources sector, with a notable downturn in major project construction likely to be seen over the coming years.

The labour force modelling projections shown in this report will assist in planning for future labour force needs, in concert with skills development and migration strategies.

The modelling results show quite different expectations for employment requirements and skill needs across the sector in coming years, including:

A highly volatile profile associated with resources project construction, which is expected to see employment levels lift at first and then contract in coming years. This drives an overall contraction in resources sector employment between now and 2018 in all scenarios.

Solid growth for mining operations employment in the base case, as projects increasingly move into production.

Very strong growth for oil and gas extraction/supply employment in all scenarios, with significant capacity to be delivered in the coming years.

There is a significant people and qualification need associated with the latter two components, and the steady increase linked to somewhat predictable timetables for production commencement from major projects lends this to supply from domestic skill development. Indicative supply projections, which include a component stemming from net international migration, suggest there may be shortfalls in supply in the coming years.

On the other hand, when employment associated with BREE major projects turns down notably, there will be a considerable over-supply of skills for this component, both from no vacancies for new graduates coming into the system, and also as existing workers need to leave the sector with employment declining.


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Being able to successfully transition some of these individuals to the required operational roles could go a long way to overcoming any shortage of skills in those roles, though in many cases there may be significant challenges in engineering such a transition.


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Appendix A: Forecast methodology Deloitte Access Economics’ modelling methodology brings together modelling capabilities in relation to skills demand and supply employed in previous work for AWPA (Economic modelling of skills demand and supply, 2012) with the firm’s Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling competency, DAE-RGEM. By linking these two capabilities, the labour market impact of major resources projects around Australia can be assessed within a broad, economy-wide framework.

Figure 1.1 outlines the modelling structure used by Deloitte Access Economics. In brief, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and BREE is used to define the historical employment performance of the resources sector and establish defined growth scenarios to 2018 (base case, high growth and low growth).

Baseline employment projections (excluding the impact of major resources projects) are based on the existing structure of the resources industry and the potential employment growth in the absence of additional projects under each of the base case, high growth and low growth scenarios being considered. The difference in the base employment path between the three scenarios is driven by different profiles for commodity prices.

The employment impact of major resources projects under each of the base case, high growth and low growth scenarios is then assessed using DAE-RGEM based on the April 2013 BREE major project information. This modelling defines the changes in resources construction employment from 2013 and 2018, and calibrates the employment associated with the operations of major projects which are completed over the period form 2013 to 2018.

Additional qualification requirements from changes in construction and operational employment are based largely on Census information showing the propensity of those employed to hold qualifications by level.

The addition of net replacement demand completes the demand modelling in terms of additional qualifications required.

Separate skills supply modelling is undertaken concurrently, examining the expected supply of skills from domestic graduates and net international migration. This is then combined with projections of skill requirements from labour demand, enabling the a comparison of skills supply and demand to be assessed for the resources sector.


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Figure A.1: Modelling structure


Resources project construction (with the dominant element of this defined by BREE major projects);


Oil and Gas extraction/Oil and Gas supply operations

For modelling purposes, it is necessary to map these industry descriptions to the definitions captured within the ANZSIC structure. Table A.2 below shows Deloitte Access Economics’ concordance between the industry descriptions above and the ANZSIC structure.

Table A.2: Industry structure

AWPA industry Corresponding ANZSIC industry

Resources project construction Comprises components of 31 - Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction and 32 – Construction services

Mining operations B – Mining, less 07 – Oil and Gas Extraction


07 – Oil and Gas Extraction

and 27 – Gas supply

Mining operations and oil and gas supply / extraction are simply the sum of all workers in those industries.

Historical ABS employment data and BREE project data.

Defined scenarios for

base case, high and low

growth.

Baseline employment projections excluding the impact of major resources projects

(Operation)

Employment impact of major resources

projects (Construction and operation)

Employment projections including the impact of projects

Skills supply forecasts

Map CGE employment

impact to ANZSIC and ANZSCO

structure

Comparison of supply and

demand

Retirements and other factors influencing

required net replacement


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However, the resources project construction industry sector is more problematic. The ABS definitions for all components in Groups 31 and 32 are quite broad, but both cover a large number of workers that would be involved in major resources project construction. Construction services include workers involved in construction of sheds, major site preparation work and other related jobs.

However, not all workers in these groups are working on major projects (particularly those outside of Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory). Therefore, a proportion of the workers in this broader measure (Groups 31 and 32) are allocated to the AWPA industry sector of ‘Resources project construction’, with those proportions informed by BREE major project data by region (for example, a very high proportion in the Northern Territory and hardly any in Victoria).

At a national level, the resource projection construction sector includes 22½% of the Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction group (ANZSIC 310), 18% of Land Development and Site Preparation Services (ANZSIC 321), 15½% of Building Structure Services (ANZSIC 322), 10% of Building Installation Services (ANZSIC 323) and 7½% of Building Completion Services (ANZSIC 324).

Demand for labour

Projecting the demand for labour in the resources sector over time under various scenarios comprises two key elements: assessing the base labour demand that would occur in the sector in the absence of any additional projects, and the labour requirements of future projects currently in the pipeline. Employment data provided in this report is in terms of persons, not full-time equivalent persons.

Base labour demand

Deloitte Access Economics has a well-established framework for projecting employment demand by industry and occupation at both a national and State/Territory level. This framework is used to produce forecasts of employment to the 3-digit ANZSIC industry classification level and the 4-digit ANZSCO occupational classification level, consistent with labour force time series data released by the ABS.

The key macroeconomic variables used for this analysis from the Deloitte Access Economics Macro (DAEM) model include components of final demand (such as categories of private consumption and investment), key financial variables (such as interest rates and the exchange rate) and labour market variables.

This analysis is undertaken to generate a base case projection of employment levels for the mining operations and oil and gas extraction / supply sectors. A base level of employment in the broader resources construction sector is also estimated, but there is also estimated to be a level of base employment demand in the resources project construction sector which is independent of major project activity.

Further scenarios are considered (high growth and low growth), where there are different profiles for resources commodity prices, while results in (higher and lower) estimates for employment levels for these sectors from 2013 to 2018.


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Additional demand from major resources projects

The employment impact of major resources projects is estimated by Deloitte Access Economics using our CGE model, DAE-RGEM.

The inputs to the modelling of major resources projects are drawn from BREE “Resources and Energy Major Projects” database for 2013. Across the three scenarios, assumptions are used as to the proportion of major projects within the current BREE listing which are assumed to proceed over time. These parameter assumptions were provided in Table 1.2 with a summary discussion of major projects provided in Chapter 3.

DAE-RGEM is a large scale, dynamic, multi-region, multi-commodity computable general equilibrium model of the world economy. The model allows policy analysis in a single, robust, integrated economic framework. It projects changes in macroeconomic aggregates such as for GDP, employment, export volumes, investment and private consumption. At a sectoral or industry level, detailed results such as output, trade flows and employment are also produced.

The model is based on a set of key underlying relationships between different groups of agents in the economy: households, producers, investors and international agents. Each of these groups is represented as a discrete component in the model. The relationships between components are solved simultaneously and, as such, there is no logical start or end point to conceptualise the model’s operation.

Figure A.2 shows the key components of the model for an individual region. Regions can be specified for particular analyses and can be entire countries (or multi-country regions like the Euro Zone or East Asia) or specific areas of a country like Australian States and Territories.

The model’s database and broad economic foundations are outlined below.

Figure A.2: Key components of DAE-RGEM

Representative household

Producers

InvestorsInternational


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The database

DAE-RGEM is underpinned by a detailed global database. This is derived from the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), which produces a global database for general equilibrium modelling that covers 113 regions or countries and 57 industry sectors (the base year is 2004).

The Australian component of the database is provided by the Productivity Commission and is based on Australian input-output tables developed by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. As noted, the model also splits Australian economic activity into States and Territories, thus allowing regional analysis to be undertaken.

Regional flexibility

The DAE-RGEM model has the regional and sectoral flexibility to cover a range of mining precincts across Australia. The model can be structured as a set of sub-regions (state or sub-state) that engage in international and inter-regional trade. For example, the model is able to separately identify sub-state regions such as the Pilbara, Bowen Basin and Hunter regions. The integration of the Australian economy with both domestic sub-regional economies and foreign national economies is important when considering large scale investments.

Further details on the underpinnings and operation of DAE-RGEM are available upon request.

Outputs – employment projections

The output from the DAE-RGEM modelling of major resources projects is employment levels for the three sectors of interest:

Resources project construction;

Mining operations; and

Oil and gas extraction / supply;

by year, by scenario (according to the probabilities for major projects) and by region.

These results are summed with projected base labour demand for the three industry sectors to produce an aggregate projection of employment levels for the three industry sectors, by scenario, by year and by region.

Forecasts for industry employment (for the three sectors of interest) are translated into occupational employment forecasts (at the 4-digit ANZSCO occupational level). For this exercise, this has been undertaken using 2011 Census data which shows the occupational employment share for each of the industry groups examined. For forecasts, these shares are allowed to change over time.

Qualification profile

To assess the future qualification implications of labour market demand, we utilise a profile of the typical qualification mix that is associated with employment in specific industries and occupations. This represents recent information on average propensities to hold


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qualifications – in most cases these are not necessarily a strict requirement in order to undertake a particular job.

The historic profile at the four-digit ANZSCO level is drawn from the 2011 Census. However, it is updated to reflect the occupational profile shown at the one-digit ANZSCO level which is contained within the 2012 ABS Survey of Education and Work.

Skills deepening

The qualifications profile (the share of those employed who hold a post-school qualification) increases over time reflecting skills deepening in the economy. The projected changes in the qualifications profile are by assumption for each scenario, though they have been derived based on recent historic trends in the degree of skills deepening occurring.

From the Survey of Education and Work we have derived an estimate of the share of people in an occupation with a qualification across the period from 1997 to 2012. This data shows a notable rise in the share of workers with post-school qualifications over time – a trend that the model assumes will continue across the forecast period.

Note however that if this simple linear trend of the share of workers with a qualification in an occupation were extrapolated it would see many occupations exceed 100% of workers with a post-school qualification at some level.

In developing projections going forward, a second problem is ensuring that we account for the trend in workers to deepen their skills (move from a lower level qualification to a higher level qualification over time).

We estimate a trend in the share of workers holding qualifications one level at a time, starting with the highest level, postgraduate, and progressing down to the certificate level. In addition, rather than fit a simple linear trend we fit a logit function to the historical data. This simple probability distribution fits the probability of having a qualification over one minus the probability (calculating the probability of having a qualification given the remaining workers without a qualification). Therefore any change in this ratio over time can be interpreted as the share of workers likely to hold a qualification into the future.

Multiple qualification profile

Assessing and projecting the share of the employed workforce who hold post-school qualifications is one issue, while assessing and projecting the total number of post-school qualifications held by those employed is another. The latter allows for the fact that many people do hold more than one post-school qualification.

The share of qualification holders by their highest qualification who also hold other post-school qualifications is derived to estimate the total number of qualifications held. The tendency to hold more than one post-school qualification is allowed to increase over time, in line with trends over recent years.

The propensity to hold multiple qualifications is separately examine for:

skills deepening – where individuals have attained a higher level qualification; and


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skills broadening – where individuals have attained a further qualification at the same or lower level.

Note that this methodology has some limitations. While we can capture both the number of qualifications held by an individual and their level, the data does not allow us to know exactly what the non-highest level qualification relates to. For example, we have an estimate of how many undergraduate qualifications are held by electrical engineers and we have an estimate for professionals how many of those working with undergraduate qualifications also have a Certificate IV qualification. We cannot capture whether this Certificate IV qualification was for a trade in a similar or different field, for example was previously a draftsperson or an electrician. It makes it difficult to then capture the additional training for a specific occupation, say electricians as a share of the overall Certificate IV qualification demand.

Replacement demand

There are a variety of measures of turnover or replacement demand including gross turnover which measures all movements in and out of an occupation and net replacement which is calculated as a subset of turnover.

It is important to note that there is no single definition of replacement demand which is ‘correct’. Rather, it depends on which definition of replacement best suits the purpose it is used for – in this case estimating training demand. For the purposes of training demand, one is interested in that proportion of replacement which is likely to generate a skills requirement. Providing a replacement when people retire is one such area. The new entrant needs to match the skill set of the retiree (including the propensity for that retiree to have held post-school qualifications). The new entrant is seen as having the same propensity to hold a post-school qualification as is the case for employment within the occupation as a whole. Hence there is specific allowance for retirees within the training demand projections for this report.

For other elements of replacement the training demand implications are more difficult to assess. However, movement between occupations which leads to an additional post-school qualification is captured as an additional training demand within our broader modelling framework because we take into account the degree of multiple qualification holding.

The separation of assessing qualifications required to replace those retiring from the workforce and qualifications required as people move between occupations and attain more than one post-school qualification means that this framework minimises the risks of double counting of qualification requirements.

Calculation of retirement rates

A retirement as Deloitte Access Economics defines it, does not necessarily have to leave the labour force entirely. A retirement can be from an occupation to another occupation provided they never return. That is, there are net outflows from older age cohorts in a particular occupation. From a training perspective this is often just as important as leaving the workforce entirely.


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In an effort to make retirements distinct from other net outflows from an occupation, we say a retirement is that net percentage of workers that leave an occupation at older ages (measured as an exit from the 50-54 cohort).

To ensure that estimated retirement rates across all occupations are also consistent with economy wide labour force measures, the number of retirements is measured for each five year age cohort in each occupation against the national average age profile. The overall age specific labour force participation rates in each occupation are then used to adjust the retirements in each year of the forecasts to reflect the aggregate changes over time.

Deloitte Access Economics therefore generates a retirement estimate for each occupation that reflects the workers that are likely to never return to their original occupation and therefore generate the need for additional long term training demand (applying the average propensity to hold a post-school qualification seen for the occupation as a whole).

Supply of skills

The modelling discussed above provides the projected demand for labour and post-school qualifications for the three industry sectors consistent with the growth scenarios defined at the project level.

The supply modelling looks at the contributions expected to be made from the key sources of skills supply – additional domestic graduates and net international migration. The focus here is on the supply of post-school qualifications.

The supply of skills over the next five years is seen as being driven primarily by demographic and policy factors (including funding of the domestic training system). Hence, only a central or base case scenario for skills supply is considered.

Supply of domestic graduates

An important first step in establishing the likely future flow of skills supply is to understand recent rates of student participation in both higher education and vocational education and training, and where these participation rates are likely to head in the short term. The key focus is on projecting student completions from year to year, noting that recent movements in commencements can help to inform the likely rate of student completions in the short term.

This profile is developed primarily from the following data series:

Higher Education Statistics (Department of Education); and

VET students and courses data (NCVER).

It is reported according to the following qualification categories:

postgraduate qualifications;

undergraduate qualifications;

advanced diploma / diploma;

certificate III / certificate IV; and

certificate I / certificate II.


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The projections are also reported by occupation (at the 4 digit ANZSCO level).

The method for projecting qualification supply generated by the completion of qualifications by domestic students involves calculating and projecting the number of qualification completions as a share of the population.

These shares are multiplied by demographic projections to calculate the demographically-driven supply of qualifications. Other variables expected to influence the number of qualification completions (such as economic and labour market data) are also incorporated. Demographic projections are developed using Deloitte Access Economics’ demographic model (DAE-DEM).

Net international migration

The second source of qualification supply modelled is the contribution from net international migration. The method for projecting the increase in qualifications in Australia as a result of net migration involves projecting the number of individuals arriving and departing from Australia by net overseas migration component, assessing the occupation of those arriving or departing, and assigning an assumed qualification profile to those individuals.

Historical net migration data is sourced from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and the Department of Immigration and Border Protection (DIBP). The components of net overseas migration include:

Arrivals:

• Permanent arrivals

• Long term (temporary) arrivals

• Residents returning

• Visitors arriving

Departures:

• Permanent departures

• Long term (temporary) departures

• Residents departing

• Visitors departing

The estimates for skills supplied from net international migration by broad qualification and by occupation for 2013 are based on migrant and Census information on qualifications held and the occupational skills of migrants.

These shares are then applied going forward to 2018 against a profile of modest growth in the overall level of net international migration over time (in line with broader population growth in Australia).

Characteristic profiles were derived for permanent and temporary arrivals (separated using the visa category relating to each individual), and departures. These profiles were used to determine the expected propensity for an individual arriving in (departing from) Australia to be in a particular age cohort, to arrive in (depart from) a particular State/Territory, and to work in a particular occupation according to the 4-digit ANZSCO structure.


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These variables were all available in the data obtained from DIBP. The construction of the characteristic profiles therefore involves calculating the share of individuals by age, State/Territory and occupation within the broader dataset. Average shares from 2010 to 2012 were used.

The next step is to determine qualification propensities. The purpose of the supply side modelling is to project the number of additional qualifications in Australia to 2018 in the three resources related industries examined in the report. Not all individuals arriving and departing Australia hold a post-school qualification. Therefore, before assigning qualification types to (net) migrants, an adjustment needs to be made to account for the propensity for the individual to hold a post-school qualification.

The propensity to hold a post-school qualification differs for different components of net overseas migration and different migrant types.

Permanent emigrants and residents departing Australia are assumed to have the same propensity to hold a post-school qualification as the Australian average after controlling for the individual’s age, State/Territory and occupation. That is, if the permanent emigrant or departing resident is a 20-24 year old accountant from New South Wales, they are assumed to have the same propensity to hold a post-school qualification as the average across all 20-24 year old accountants from New South Wales. This data is drawn from the 2011 Census.

Australian residents returning to the country are also assigned this Australian average propensity.

The propensity for migrants to hold a post-school qualification has been drawn from the ABS Learning and Work publication. This dataset includes information on the qualification holdings of migrants by their year of arrival. The data suggests that, on average, some 62.8% of migrants arrive in Australia with a post-school qualification, and that this share has been increasing over time.

Deloitte Access Economics has assumed that the share of migrants holding a post-school qualification continues to increase over time.

The share of migrants possessing a post-school qualification implied by the ABS data is applied to all migrant types except international students. International students studying in Australia temporarily are assumed to not contribute to the supply of qualifications. Those that do stay in Australia to work following the completion of their qualification will shift to a permanent visa and will be captured within the projections at that point. Migrants on temporary student visas are therefore assigned a propensity to hold a post-school qualification of 0%.

Visitors departing are assigned the same average propensity to hold a post-school qualification as visitors arriving.

The average propensity to hold a post-school qualification for permanent migrants is weighted by migrant type. The propensity for permanent migrants can therefore change over the forecast period as a result of both the assumed increase in the propensity of migrants to hold a post-school qualification and as the mix of migrant types change. The


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resulting propensities by component of net overseas migration are shown in the chart below for 2010.

Chart A.1: Propensity to hold a post-school qualification by component of net migration

Source: DIAC, ABS Learning and Work, Deloitte Access Economics

After determining the proportion of migrants expected to hold a post-school qualification, the next step is to determine which qualifications they hold.

Deloitte Access Economics has assumed that the qualification profile for both migrants and emigrants is the same as the Australian average after controlling for the age, State/Territory and occupation of the individual. The qualification share for migrants is then scaled so that, in aggregate, it accords with the data published in the ABS Learning and Work publication. For emigrants (Australian residents leaving Australia permanently and temporarily) this is sensible as they previously were part of the Australian population and are now taking their skills elsewhere.

For migrants, Deloitte Access Economics is assuming that to arrive in Australia and work, migrants must possess a qualification equivalent to the Australian average. This assumption is applied to both permanent and temporary migrants, as well as to departing visitors (who are assumed to leave with the same qualification profile as they had when they entered).

The qualification profile of the Australian population is drawn from the 2011 Census. Data on employed persons who hold a post-school qualification is separated by qualification type (postgraduate, undergraduate, Advanced Diploma/Diploma, Certificate III/IV, Certificate I/II), State/Territory, age and occupation. The qualification profile is held constant over the forecast period.

For permanent and temporary migrants, along with visitors departing Australia, the qualification profile is the scaled to the data presented in the ABS Learning and Work publication. That data is shown in the table below.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Visitors arriving

Residents returning

Visitors departing

Residents departing

Temporary Permanent Temporary Permanent

Migrants Emigrants

Propensity to hold a post-school qualification


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Table A.3: Migrant qualification profile, share of migrants with a qualification

Postgraduate Undergraduate Adv Diploma / Diploma

Certificate III/IV Certificate I/II

15.2% 55.4% 17.8% 8.4% 3.3%

Source: ABS

Net interstate migration

Note that States and Territories also gain and lose population through net interstate migration. An understanding of the extent to which net interstate migration is adding to the skill base in different States and Territories can be achieved through an examination of interstate movements (and the occupation and qualification profile attached to these) reported in the 2011 Census data.

However net interstate migration is not factored into projections for the overall additional supply of qualifications in the report as the supply tables only account for supply at the national level and net interstate migration is effectively summed out.

Approximation to industries

Deloitte Access Economics has traditionally presented these skills supply forecasts by qualification at the occupational level. Skills attained can be related to a particular occupation for which they are best suited. It is often (though not always) the case that those same skills could be employed across several different industries.

Given that this particular report has an industry focus, we have developed a resources industry proxy for the supply of skills. This takes the occupational skills supply projections across the economy and maps them to industries based on the occupational composition within each industry shown in the 2011 Census.

Hence using this proxy, those completing qualifications as trades workers would be drawn to the resources sector (as opposed to other sectors), in the same proportion as the resources sector (as opposed to other sectors) employed trades workers in 2011.

Clearly, if skills can be used across different sectors, there is strong potential for skills supply to move between sectors depending on the relative strength of labour demand at the time people complete their qualifications. Hence, the industry projections of skills supply should be seen as a guideline (based on the average employment experience in 2011), and could be flexible over time if demand conditions were to change.

Supply summary

The total projected supply of post-school qualifications is reported:

for each year from 2013 to 2018;

for each scenario;

for each of the three industry sectors of interest;

by broad qualification level; and

by occupation, including at the 4-digit ANZSCO occupation level.


96


Appendix B: Detailed project listing This Appendix displays the individual project information which is utilised within the forecast projections. Major projects with indicative timelines are shown graphically at first, with one chart for each of the separate regions examined:

Projects in green are those committed.

Projects in dark blue are at the feasibility stage.

Projects in light blue are at the publicly announced stage.

Table B.1 then provides a full listing of major projects.

Chart B.1: Estimated schedule of major projects, Kimberley (WA), 2013-2018

Source: BREE (2013), Deloitte Access Economics

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Prelude Floating LNGDuchess Paradise

Panton PGMSorby Hills (Stage 1)

Irvine IslandBrowse LNG


97


Chart B.2: Estimated schedule of major projects, Pilbara (WA), 2013-2018


2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Horizon 1NWS North Rankin B

Gorgon LNGMacedon

Fletcher-FinucaneSino Iron Project

Jimblebar mine and rail (WAIO)Port (55 - 155 Mtpa)Rail (55 - 155 Mtpa)

WAIO optimisation (port blending and rail yards)Solomon Hub (stage I)

Wheatstone LNGBurrup ammonium nitrate plant

Goldfields pipeline expansionMarandoo

Balnaves Development ProjectCape Lambert port and rail expansion

Spar 2Greater Western Flank - Phase 1

Iron Valley ProjectNammuldi expansion

YandicooginaCape Lambert port expansion

Dampier–Bunbury gas pipeline (DBNGP) …Great Northern Pipeline

Julimar Development ProjectMt Webber

Pilbara VMS Province ProjectRoy Hill

Utah Point ExpansionScarborough FLNG

Buckland ProjectKoodaideri Project

Balmoral South magnetite project (stage 1)Nullagine (Blue Spec)

Nyidinghu Rail SpurPilbara Project

PilgangooraSherlock Bay

Spinifex Ridge molybdenum/copper projectGorgon (train 4)

NyidinghuAnketell Point port

Balla Balla slurry pipe and port infrstructureHorizon 2Marillana

Solomon Hub (stage II)Jinidi

Balla Balla project (phase I)Big Hill Tungsten Project

KintyreRidley Magnetite project

HardeyPilbara Independent Rail

EquusSouth West Creek Development

West PilbaraBalmoral South magnetite project (stage 2)

Balla Balla project (phase II)


98


Chart B.3: Estimated schedule of major projects, Mid-West (WA), 2013-2018


Chart B.4: Estimated schedule of major projects, Goldfields (WA), 2013-2018


2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Andy WellExtension Hill magnetite project

Gidgee Gold ProjectDongara

Thaduna/Green Dragon Copper ProjectWiluna Uranium Project

Yogi Mine Project railwayBarrambie vanadium project

Central MurchisonGullewa (Deflector gold- copper project)

Jundee ExtensionKarara Project expansion

CoburnEradu Iron Project

Wiluna West (stage 1-3)Butcherbird

Honeymoon WellYogi Mine Project

Jack Hills project (stage 2)Lake Maitland

Oakajee Port & Rail infrastructure

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Tropicana Joint Venture ProjectMt Weld (phase 2)

HBJ (SKO expansion stage 1)Aphrodite

Castle Hill Gold ProjectDaybreak

Diggers SouthWindarra Project (Phase 1)

Edna May undergroundBullabulling

CanegrassMarda

Mount IdaMount Mason

Ularring HematiteWingellina

Yamarna Gold Project (Central Bore)Yeelirrie

Kalgoorlie Nickel projectLeonora Gold project

Moonshine MagnetiteMt Marion Lithium Project

NiWest Nickel Laterite Heap Leach projectMulga Rock

Cyclone


99


Chart B.5: Estimated schedule of major projects, Balance of WA, 2013-2018


Chart B.6: Estimated schedule of major projects, Mackay (QLD), 2013-2018


2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

CSBP expansionConiston Oil Field Project

Silver LakeEsperance Port

KeysbrookNorth Perth Basin Project (Boonanaring, Atlas)

Aurora Bauxite MineMt Henry

Cataby Mineral SandsParker Range iron ore project

Ragged RockSouthdown Magnetite iron ore project

Wagerup Unit 3 Refinery ExpansionBAJV Alumina Refinery

Dinner Hill

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

DauniaGoonyella System Expansion Project

Lake VermontMillennium

Broadmeadow (mine life extension)Caval Ridge

Eagle Downs (Peak Downs East underground)Grosvenor underground

Hay Point Coal Terminal (phase 3)Carmichael Coal Project (mine and rail)

JaxVermont East/Wilunga

Abbot Point T0 (Phase 1 and 2)Alpha Coal ProjectDrake Coal project

Kevin's CornerEaglefield

Foxleigh Plains ProjectMoorlands

New LentonSarum

Talwood Coking Coal ProjectMiddlemount (stage 2)

Grosvenor Phase 2Abbot Point Coal T3 (part of Alpha Coal Project)

Central Queensland Integrated Rail ProjectDudgeon Point

Project China StoneCodrilla

Wards WellAbbot Point Coal T2Bowen Gas Project

Moranbah South projectEllensfield coal mine project


100


Chart B.7: Estimated schedule of major projects, Fitzroy (QLD), 2013-2018


Chart B.8: Estimated schedule of major projects, Darling Downs (QLD), 2013-2018


2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

KestrelGladstone LNG

Australia Pacific LNG (trains 1 and 2)Queensland Curtis LNG project

Wiggins Island Coal Terminal (stage 1)Baralaba South

Orion DownsRolleston (phase 1)Baralaba expansion

Comet RidgeMount Morgan tailings project

Rolleston (phase 2)Taroborah

Byerwen Coal ProjectChina First Coal project (Galilee Coal Project)

Fitzroy TerminalMoura Link - Aldoga Rail

Springsure Creek (stage 1)Arrow LNG Plant (trains 1 and 2)

Dingo WestGladstone Steel Plant Project (stage 1)

Jellinbah EastStyx

TaroomTeresa

The Range ProjectWashpool coal project

Wiggins Island Coal Terminal (stage 2 and 3)Winchester South

Curragh MineOaky Creek (phase 2)

Yarwun Coal Terminal (Stage 1)Surat Basin Rail (Southern Missing Link)

Belvedere undergroundWiggins Island rail project

Arrow Surat PipelineBelview

Fisherman's Landing LNG (train 1)South Galilee Coal Project (3 phases)

Togara NorthArrow Bowen Pipeline

Fisherman's Landing LNG (train 2)Wandoan opencut (phase 1)

Springsure Creek (stage 2)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Anduramba MolybdenumElimatta

Wilkie CreekWoori

North Surat - Collingwood ProjectNew Acland (stage 3)Norwood Coal Mine

Bundi Coal ProjectSurat Gas Project


101


Chart B.9: Estimated schedule of major projects, Balance of QLD, 2013-2018


Chart B.10: Estimated schedule of major projects, Hunter (NSW), 2013-2018


2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Port of Townsville Upgrade - Berth 8Bauxite Hills

Rocklands Copper projectUrquhart Point

ColtonLittle Eva - Roseby

MinyangoMt Elliot - Open Pit

Mt GarnetParadise Phosphate project

Pisolite HillsDugald River

Lions Way pipelineLucky Break

Merlin Molybdenum-Rhenium Phase 2Mount Carbine

Port of Townsville Upgrade - Berth 12Lady Loretta

Mt Elliot - Swan High Grade ZoneRavenswood (Sarsfield open pit)

SCONISconi (Phase 1)

South of Embley ProjectWatershed Tungsten project

White RangeMt Dore

Newstead to Bulla Park pipelineWestmoreland

Charters TowersValhalla

Wongai Project

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Ulan WestNCIG export terminal (Newcastle Coal Infrastructure…

Boggabri opencutHunter Valley Corridor Capacity Strategy (Contracted)

Ravensworth North (Stage 1)Austar underground (stage 3)Bengalla expansion (stage 2)

Ashton South East opencutBowden's Project

CobboraGloucester Coal Seam Gas pipeline

Mount Pleasant ProjectStratford

Tomingley (Wyoming) gold projectVickery

Wellington Power Station PipelineWest Wallsend Colliery

Doyles CreekHunter Valley Corridor Capacity Strategy (Proposed)

Moolarben (stage 2 - OC4, UG1 and UG2)Tarrawonga Expansion

Kooragang Island ammonium nitrate facilityMaules Creek

Northparkes (step change expansion)United Project

WatermarkWongawilli Colliery

Mt Thorley - Warkworth extensionDubbo Zirconia project

Drayton SouthGloucester Coal Seam gas project

Mt PennyNarrabri coal seam gas project

Queensland–Hunter gas pipeline


102


Chart B.11: Estimated schedule of major projects, Balance of NSW, 2013-2018


Chart B.12: Estimated schedule of major projects, Outback-North East (SA), 2013-2018


Chart B.13: Estimated schedule of major projects, Balance of SA, 2013-2018


2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Moomba to SydneyPotosi (Stage 2 and 3)

Woodlawn Retreatment ProjectHera

Appin Area 9Dargues Reef (Majors Creek)

MetropolitanNRE No. 1 Colliery (preliminary works project)

CowalDuralie Extension project

KempfieldKingsgate Molybdenum-Bismuth project

NRE No. 1 CollieryCamden Gas Project (Stage 1)

North Mine DeepsBalranald Project

Casino ProjectCoalpac consolidation (Cullen Valley and Invincible mines)

Copper Hill projectGoulburn Bauxite Project

Taronga Tin ProjectWebbs Silver Project

Wallarah underground longwallHawsons

Camden Gas Project (Stage 2)Moorilda (McPhillamys)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Four MileKalkaroo

Koongie Zinc Copper ProjectTunkilla

Wilcherry Hill (stage 2)Hawks Nest Magnetite Project

CarrapateenaOlympic Dam project

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Whylla Port Expansion

Port Bonython

Port Spencer (Sheep Hill)

Hillside

Maldorky

Fusion

Central Eyre Iron Project


103


Chart B.14: Estimated schedule of major projects, Victoria, 2013-2018


Chart B.15: Estimated schedule of major projects, Tasmania, 2013-2018


Chart B.16: Estimated schedule of major projects, Northern Territory, 2013-2018


Table B.1: Full major project listing

Project Region Cost ($m) Status Start End Cost per

quarter ($m)

Energy projects

Browse LNG Kimberley 5000 Publicly announced Dec-14 Jun-19 277.8

Dampier–Bunbury Pilbara 800 Feasibility stage Dec-13 Dec-15 100.0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Turrum

Donald Mineral Sands Project

Hazelwood magnesium project

Stockman Project

Hazelwood magnesium project

Kipper Gas Project (Stage 2)

Kipper Gas Project (Mercury Handling Facilities)

Unicorn

WIM 150 Mineral Sands Project

Longford Gas Conditioning Plant

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Barnes Hill

Dolphin Tungsten Project

Mt Lindsay

Renison Expansion Project (Rentails)

Heemskirk

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Gemco Phase 2 ExpansionIchthys LNG

Roper BarJervois

Nolans Project (mine and processing facility)Roper River Iron Ore project

Ranger 3 DeepsMolyhil (tungsten)

Mt ToddMount Peake

Central TanamiCharley Creek

Darwin Clean Fuels ProjectRover 1

BigrlyiBonaparte Floating LNG

Crux LNGCash Maple Development

Sunrise Gas projectMcArthur River (phase 3)

Darwin iron ore berthTassie Shoal LNG

Tassie Shoal methanol projectWonarah Phosphate Rock Project

Tanami project


104



quarter ($m)

gas pipeline (DBNGP) expansion (stage 5C)

Equus Pilbara 2000 Publicly announced Mar-16 Jun-18 222.2

Fletcher-Finucane Pilbara 490 Committed Dec-10 Dec-12 61.3 Goldfields pipeline expansion Pilbara 150 Committed Dec-12 Dec-14 18.8

Gorgon (train 4) Pilbara 12000 Feasibility stage Sep-14 Jun-18 800.0

Gorgon LNG Pilbara 52000 Committed Dec-09 Mar-15 2476.2 Great Northern Pipeline Pilbara 500 Feasibility stage Dec-13 Dec-15 62.5

Macedon Pilbara 1470 Committed Jun-10 Sep-13 113.1

NWS North Rankin B Pilbara 5000 Committed Mar-08 Sep-13 227.3

Spar 2 Pilbara 117 Committed Jun-13 Jun-15 14.6

Wheatstone LNG Pilbara 29000 Committed Mar-12 Jun-16 1705.9 Coniston Oil Field Project WA 526 Committed Jun-12 Jun-14 65.8

Bowen Gas Project Mackay 500 Feasibility stage Mar-16 Jun-18 55.6 Arrow Bowen Pipeline Fitzroy 1000 Feasibility stage Mar-16 Jun-18 111.1 Arrow LNG Plant (trains 1 and 2) Fitzroy 24000 Feasibility stage Jun-14 Jun-19 1200.0

Arrow Surat Pipeline Fitzroy 600 Feasibility stage Jun-15 Jun-18 50.0 Australia Pacific LNG (trains 1 and 2) Fitzroy 24700 Committed Jun-11 Jun-15 1543.8 Fisherman's Landing LNG (train 1) Fitzroy 1500

Publicly announced Jun-15 Dec-16 250.0

Gladstone LNG Fitzroy 18000 Committed Mar-11 Dec-15 947.4 Queensland Curtis LNG project Fitzroy 19800 Committed Jun-11 Jun-14 1650.0

Surat Gas Project Darling Downs 1500 Feasibility stage Jun-15 Jun-17 187.5

Lions Way pipeline QLD 100 Publicly announced Mar-14 Sep-15 16.7

Newstead to Bulla Park pipeline QLD 500 Feasibility stage Sep-14 Sep-15 125.0 Gloucester Coal Seam Gas pipeline Hunter 80 Feasibility stage Dec-13 Dec-14 20.0 Narrabri coal seam gas project Hunter 1300 Feasibility stage Mar-16 Mar-19 108.3 Wellington Power Station Pipeline Hunter 200 Feasibility stage Dec-13 Jun-14 100.0 Camden Gas Project (Stage 2) NSW 125

Publicly announced Mar-15 Dec-15 41.7

Casino Project NSW 125 Publicly announced Jun-14 Jun-16 15.6

Moomba to Sydney NSW 100 Committed Jun-11 Jun-13 12.5 Kipper Gas Project (Mercury Handling Victoria 125 Feasibility stage Jun-14 Jun-16 15.6


105



quarter ($m)

Facilities)

Kipper Gas Project (Stage 2) Victoria 1250

Publicly announced Mar-14 Jun-16 138.9

Turrum Victoria 2600 Committed Dec-09 Jun-16 100.0 Darwin Clean Fuels Project

Northern Territory 800

Publicly announced Jun-14 Jun-16 100.0

Ichthys LNG Northern Territory 33000 Committed Jun-12 Jun-16 2062.5

Tassie Shoal LNG Northern Territory 2100 Feasibility stage Mar-15 Jun-17 233.3

Bonaparte Floating LNG

Northern Territory 13000 Feasibility stage Dec-14 Mar-18 1000.0

Cash Maple Development

Northern Territory 5000


Crux LNG Northern Territory 5000

Publicly announced Dec-14 Dec-17 416.7

Montara/Skua oilfield

Northern Territory 680 Committed Dec-11 Dec-13 85.0

Sunrise Gas project Northern Territory 5000


Prelude Floating LNG Kimberley 12600 Committed Jun-12 Jun-16 787.5

Scarborough FLNG Pilbara 14000 Feasibility stage Dec-14 Dec-18 875.0

Mining projects

Duchess Paradise Kimberley 200 Feasibility stage Dec-13 Jun-15 33.3

Irvine Island Kimberley 700 Feasibility stage Jun-14 Jun-18 43.8

Panton PGM Kimberley 167 Feasibility stage Jun-14 Jun-16 20.9

Sorby Hills (Stage 1) Kimberley 70 Publicly announced Jun-14 Jun-16 8.8

Balla Balla project (phase I) Pilbara 1000 Feasibility stage Jun-15 Jun-18 83.3 Balla Balla project (phase II) Pilbara 750


Balmoral South magnetite project (stage 1) Pilbara 3300 Feasibility stage Jun-14 Jun-17 275.0 Balmoral South magnetite project (stage 2) Pilbara 4000


Big Hill Tungsten Project Pilbara 112


Buckland Project Pilbara 750 Feasibility stage Mar-14 Jun-15 150.0

Hardey Pilbara 2000 Publicly announced Sep-15 Dec-17 222.2

Horizon 1 Pilbara 252 Committed Dec-04 Sep-13 7.2

Horizon 2 Pilbara 2000 Publicly announced Dec-14 Jun-18 142.9

Iron Valley Project Pilbara 300 Publicly announced Sep-13 Sep-15 37.5

Jinidi Pilbara 5000 Publicly Mar-15 Mar-19 312.5


106



quarter ($m)

announced

Kintyre Pilbara 600 Feasibility stage Jun-15 Jun-17 75.0

Koodaideri Project Pilbara 7000 Feasibility stage Mar-14 Sep-16 700.0

Marandoo Pilbara 1070 Committed Dec-12 Dec-14 133.8

Marillana Pilbara 1900 Feasibility stage Dec-14 Dec-16 237.5

Mt Webber Pilbara 420 Feasibility stage Dec-13 Sep-16 38.2

Nammuldi expansion Pilbara 2140 Committed Sep-13 Sep-14 535.0

Nullagine (Blue Spec) Pilbara 34 Feasibility stage Jun-14 Jun-16 4.3

Nyidinghu Pilbara 2000 Publicly announced Sep-14 Dec-16 222.2

Pilbara Project Pilbara 1100 Feasibility stage Jun-14 Sep-16 122.2 Pilbara VMS Province Project Pilbara 234 Feasibility stage Dec-13 Mar-16 26.0

Pilgangoora Pilbara 96 Publicly announced Jun-14 Jun-15 24.0

Ridley Magnetite project Pilbara 3500


Roy Hill Pilbara 9500 Feasibility stage Dec-13 Dec-15 1187.5

Sherlock Bay Pilbara 200 Publicly announced Jun-14 Jun-18 12.5

Sino Iron Project Pilbara 8400 Committed Dec-10 Jun-13 840.0 Solomon Hub (stage I) Pilbara 3100 Committed Jun-11 Dec-13 310.0 Solomon Hub (stage II) Pilbara 3000


South West Creek Development Pilbara 4000

Publicly announced Mar-16 Mar-18 500.0

Spinifex Ridge molybdenum/copper project Pilbara 400


Utah Point Expansion Pilbara 60 Committed Dec-13 Dec-14 15.0

West Pilbara Pilbara 7400 Publicly announced Mar-16 Jun-20 435.3

Yandicoogina Pilbara 1700 Committed Sep-13 Sep-14 425.0

Andy Well Mid-west 55 Committed Jun-11 Jun-13 6.9 Barrambie vanadium project Mid-west 300


Butcherbird Mid-west 200 Publicly announced Dec-14 Dec-16 25.0

Central Murchison Mid-west 117 Publicly announced Mar-14 Mar-16 14.6

Coburn Mid-west 192 Feasibility stage Jun-14 Jun-16 24.0

Dongara Mid-west 300 Feasibility stage Dec-13 Dec-15 37.5

Eradu Iron Project Mid-west 605 Feasibility stage Jun-14 Jun-16 75.6 Extension Hill magnetite project Mid-west 2900 Feasibility stage Sep-13 Mar-15 483.3

Gidgee Gold Project Mid-west 127 Feasibility stage Sep-13 Sep-15 15.9 Gullewa (Deflector gold- copper project) Mid-west 91 Feasibility stage Mar-14 Sep-15 15.2


107



quarter ($m)

Honeymoon Well Mid-west 1500 Feasibility stage Dec-14 Dec-17 125.0 Jack Hills project (stage 2) Mid-west 3700 Feasibility stage Mar-15 Mar-18 308.3

Jundee Extension Mid-west 220 Publicly announced Mar-14 Mar-16 27.5

Karara Project expansion Mid-west 1700 Feasibility stage Mar-14 Jun-16 188.9

Lake Maitland Mid-west 400 Publicly announced Jun-15 Jun-17 50.0

Thaduna/Green Dragon Copper Project Mid-west 150

Publicly announced Dec-13 Sep-14 50.0

Wiluna Uranium Project Mid-west 280 Feasibility stage Dec-13 Dec-15 35.0 Wiluna West (stage 1-3) Mid-west 2000 Feasibility stage Jun-14 Jun-16 250.0

Yogi Mine Project Mid-west 1060 Feasibility stage Dec-14 Dec-16 132.5

Aphrodite Goldfields 244 Publicly announced Dec-13 Dec-15 30.5

Bullabulling Goldfields 346 Feasibility stage Jun-14 Jun-16 43.3

Canegrass Goldfields 750 Publicly announced Jun-14 Jun-16 93.8

Castle Hill Gold Project Goldfields 110 Feasibility stage Dec-13 Dec-15 13.8

Cyclone Goldfields 223 Feasibility stage Jun-18 Jun-20 27.9

Daybreak Goldfields 200 Publicly announced Dec-13 Dec-15 25.0

Diggers South Goldfields 100 Feasibility stage Dec-13 Dec-15 12.5 Edna May underground Goldfields 200


HBJ (SKO expansion stage 1) Goldfields 25 Feasibility stage Sep-13 Jun-14 8.3 Kalgoorlie Nickel project Goldfields 2000

Publicly announced Sep-14 Sep-16 250.0

Leonora Gold project Goldfields 35 Feasibility stage Sep-14 Jun-15 11.7

Marda Goldfields 25 Feasibility stage Jun-14 Jun-16 3.1 Moonshine Magnetite Goldfields 2000

Publicly announced Sep-14 Dec-16 222.2

Mount Ida Goldfields 2000 Publicly announced Jun-14 Sep-16 222.2

Mount Mason Goldfields 73 Feasibility stage Jun-14 Jun-16 9.1 Mt Marion Lithium Project Goldfields 83 Feasibility stage Dec-14 Sep-16 11.9

Mt Weld (phase 2) Goldfields 170 Feasibility stage Mar-13 Dec-13 56.7

Mulga Rock Goldfields 260 Feasibility stage Jun-15 Jun-17 32.5 NiWest Nickel Laterite Heap Leach project Goldfields 1100 Feasibility stage Dec-14 Dec-16 137.5

Tropicana Joint Goldfields 845 Committed Jun-11 Dec-13 84.5


108



quarter ($m)

Venture Project

Ularring Hematite Goldfields 263 Feasibility stage Jun-14 Jun-16 32.9 Windarra Project (Phase 1) Goldfields 250 Feasibility stage Dec-13 Jun-16 25.0

Wingellina Goldfields 2500 Feasibility stage Jun-14 Jun-16 312.5 Yamarna Gold Project (Central Bore) Goldfields 40


Yeelirrie Goldfields 650 Feasibility stage Jun-14 Jun-18 40.6

Aurora Bauxite Mine WA 125 Publicly announced Mar-14 Dec-15 17.9

BAJV Alumina Refinery WA 1250

Publicly announced Jun-15 Sep-17 138.9

Cataby Mineral Sands WA 125 Publicly announced Jun-14 Jun-16 15.6

CSBP expansion WA 550 Committed Jun-11 Jun-14 45.8

Dinner Hill WA 650 Publicly announced Jun-16 Jun-18 81.3

Keysbrook WA 125 Feasibility stage Dec-13 Dec-14 31.3

Mt Henry WA 195 Feasibility stage Mar-14 Jun-15 39.0 North Perth Basin Project (Boonanaring, Atlas) WA 84 Feasibility stage Dec-13 Dec-14 21.0 Parker Range iron ore project WA 164 Feasibility stage Jun-14 Jun-16 20.5

Ragged Rock WA 314 Publicly announced Jun-14 Jun-16 39.3

Silver Lake WA 133 Publicly announced Sep-13 Mar-17 9.5

Southdown Magnetite iron ore project WA 3750


Wagerup Unit 3 Refinery Expansion WA 1750 Feasibility stage Jun-14 Mar-16 250.0

Carrapateena Outback - North East 2000


Four Mile Outback - North East 98 Committed Mar-11 Jun-13 10.9

Hawks Nest Magnetite Project

Outback - North East 1000 Feasibility stage Dec-14 Dec-16 125.0

Kalkaroo Outback - North East 500 Feasibility stage Jun-14 Jun-16 62.5

Koongie Zinc Copper Project

Outback - North East 150

Publicly announced Jun-14 Mar-15 50.0

Olympic Dam project Outback - North East 5000

Publicly announced Dec-15 Jun-18 500.0

Tunkilla Outback - North East 136

Publicly announced Jun-14 Sep-16 15.1

Wilcherry Hill (stage 2)

Outback - North East 400

Publicly announced Sep-14 Sep-16 50.0

Central Eyre Iron SA 2590 Feasibility stage Dec-14 Dec-16 323.8


109



quarter ($m)

Project

Fusion SA 2000 Feasibility stage Jun-14 Jun-16 250.0

Hillside SA 800 Feasibility stage Mar-14 Dec-15 114.3

Maldorky SA 150 Publicly announced Mar-14 Dec-15 21.4

Port Spencer (Sheep Hill) SA 250 Feasibility stage Dec-13 Jun-16 25.0

Abbot Point Coal T2 Mackay 2000 Publicly announced Mar-16 Jun-18 222.2

Abbot Point Coal T3 (part of Alpha Coal Project) Mackay 6000 Feasibility stage Mar-15 Mar-18 500.0 Abbot Point T0 (Phase 1 and 2) Mackay 1400 Feasibility stage Mar-14 Jun-16 155.6

Alpha Coal Project Mackay 10000 Feasibility stage Mar-14 Jun-17 769.2 Broadmeadow (mine life extension) Mackay 874 Committed Mar-12 Jun-13 174.8

Caval Ridge Mackay 1870 Committed Mar-12 Dec-14 170.0

Codrilla Mackay 500 Feasibility stage Jun-15 Jun-17 62.5

Daunia Mackay 1553 Committed Mar-11 Jun-13 172.6

Drake Coal project Mackay 350 Feasibility stage Mar-14 Dec-14 116.7 Eagle Downs (Peak Downs East underground) Mackay 1254 Committed Jun-12 Jun-17 62.7

Eaglefield Mackay 700 Feasibility stage Jun-14 Jun-16 87.5 Ellensfield coal mine project Mackay 800 Feasibility stage Dec-16 Dec-18 100.0 Foxleigh Plains Project Mackay 180 Feasibility stage Jun-14 Jun-16 22.5 Goonyella System Expansion Project Mackay 185 Committed Jun-11 Jun-13 23.1

Grosvenor Phase 2 Mackay 750 Publicly announced Dec-14 Dec-18 46.9

Grosvenor underground Mackay 1650 Committed Sep-12 Jun-16 110.0

Jax Mackay 280 Feasibility stage Dec-13 Mar-15 56.0

Kevin's Corner Mackay 4200 Feasibility stage Mar-14 Mar-16 525.0

Lake Vermont Mackay 200 Committed Jun-11 Jun-13 25.0 Middlemount (stage 2) Mackay 500 Feasibility stage Sep-14 Sep-16 62.5

Millennium Mackay 270 Committed Jun-11 Jun-13 33.8

Moorlands Mackay 300 Publicly announced Jun-14 Jun-16 37.5

Moranbah South project Mackay 2000 Feasibility stage Mar-16 Jun-18 222.2

New Lenton Mackay 400 Publicly announced Jun-14 Jun-16 50.0

Project China Stone Mackay 6000 Publicly announced Mar-15 Mar-17 750.0


110



quarter ($m)

Sarum Mackay 1000 Feasibility stage Jun-14 Jun-16 125.0 Talwood Coking Coal Project Mackay 700


Vermont East/Wilunga Mackay 300 Feasibility stage Dec-13 Dec-15 37.5

Wards Well Mackay 795.498 Feasibility stage Jun-15 Jun-17 99.4

Baralaba expansion Fitzroy 413 Feasibility stage Dec-13 Dec-14 103.3

Baralaba South Fitzroy 300 Feasibility stage Sep-13 Jun-14 100.0 Belvedere underground Fitzroy 2814


Belview Fitzroy 869 Publicly announced Jun-15 Jun-17 108.6

Byerwen Coal Project Fitzroy 1591 Feasibility stage Mar-14 Dec-15 227.3 China First Coal project (Galilee Coal Project) Fitzroy 8000 Feasibility stage Mar-14 Mar-17 666.7

Comet Ridge Fitzroy 50 Feasibility stage Dec-13 Dec-15 6.3

Curragh Mine Fitzroy 200 Feasibility stage Sep-14 Sep-16 25.0

Dingo West Fitzroy 135 Feasibility stage Jun-14 Jun-16 16.9

Jellinbah East Fitzroy 75 Publicly announced Jun-14 Jun-16 9.4

Kestrel Fitzroy 1942 Committed Jun-08 Dec-13 88.3 Mount Morgan tailings project Fitzroy 60 Feasibility stage Dec-13 Dec-15 7.5

Oaky Creek (phase 2) Fitzroy 650 Feasibility stage Sep-14 Sep-16 81.3

Orion Downs Fitzroy 100 Feasibility stage Sep-13 Jun-14 33.3

Rolleston (phase 1) Fitzroy 391.089 Committed Sep-13 Jun-14 130.4

Rolleston (phase 2) Fitzroy 400 Feasibility stage Dec-13 Mar-15 80.0 South Galilee Coal Project (3 phases) Fitzroy 4150 Feasibility stage Jun-15 Dec-17 415.0 Springsure Creek (stage 1) Fitzroy 743 Feasibility stage Mar-14 Mar-17 61.9 Springsure Creek (stage 2) Fitzroy 437 Feasibility stage Mar-17 Mar-19 54.6

Styx Fitzroy 100 Publicly announced Jun-14 Mar-15 33.3

Taroborah Fitzroy 400 Feasibility stage Dec-13 Jun-15 66.7

Taroom Fitzroy 1120 Feasibility stage Jun-14 Jun-16 140.0

Teresa Fitzroy 750 Feasibility stage Jun-14 Jun-16 93.8

The Range Project Fitzroy 505 Feasibility stage Jun-14 Jun-16 63.1

Togara North Fitzroy 800 Publicly announced Jun-15 Jun-17 100.0

Wandoan opencut (phase 1) Fitzroy 6000


Washpool coal project Fitzroy 368 Feasibility stage Jun-14 Dec-17 26.3

Winchester South Fitzroy 750 Publicly announced Jun-14 Jun-16 93.8

Anduramba Darling 200 Publicly Mar-14 Dec-15 28.6


111



quarter ($m)

Molybdenum Downs announced

Bundi Coal Project Darling Downs 994 Feasibility stage Jun-15 Jun-17 124.3

Elimatta Darling Downs 600 Feasibility stage Jun-14 Jun-16 75.0

New Acland (stage 3) Darling Downs 700 Feasibility stage Mar-15 Mar-16 175.0

North Surat - Collingwood Project

Darling Downs 652 Feasibility stage Dec-14 Jun-16 108.7

Norwood Coal Mine Darling Downs 1200


Wilkie Creek Darling Downs 750


Woori Darling Downs 520 Feasibility stage Jun-14 Jun-16 65.0

Bauxite Hills QLD 100 Publicly announced Jun-13 Jun-15 12.5

Charters Towers QLD 246 Committed Jun-15 Jun-17 30.8

Colton QLD 84 Feasibility stage Dec-13 Dec-15 10.5

Dugald River QLD 1456 Committed Mar-14 Dec-15 208.0

Lady Loretta QLD 59 Committed Jun-14 Jun-16 7.4

Little Eva - Roseby QLD 320 Feasibility stage Dec-13 Dec-15 40.0

Lucky Break QLD 15 Feasibility stage Mar-14 Dec-14 5.0 Merlin Molybdenum-Rhenium Phase 2 QLD 345 Feasibility stage Mar-14 Jun-15 69.0

Minyango QLD 750 Feasibility stage Dec-13 Dec-14 187.5

Mount Carbine QLD 54 Feasibility stage Mar-14 Mar-15 13.5

Mt Dore QLD 83 Publicly announced Sep-14 Sep-16 10.4

Mt Elliot - Open Pit QLD 95 Feasibility stage Dec-13 Dec-15 11.9 Mt Elliot - Swan High Grade Zone QLD 478 Feasibility stage Jun-14 Jun-16 59.8

Mt Garnet QLD 200 Publicly announced Dec-13 Dec-14 50.0

Paradise Phosphate project QLD 1775 Feasibility stage Dec-13 Dec-16 147.9

Pisolite Hills QLD 380 Feasibility stage Dec-13 Jun-15 63.3 Ravenswood (Sarsfield open pit) QLD 123 Feasibility stage Jun-14 Mar-15 41.0 Rocklands Copper project QLD 250 Committed Sep-13 Mar-15 41.7

SCONI QLD 750 Publicly announced Jun-14 Jun-16 93.8

Sconi (Phase 1) QLD 247 Feasibility stage Jun-14 Jun-18 15.4 South of Embley Project QLD 1400 Feasibility stage Jun-14 Jun-17 116.7

Urquhart Point QLD 250 Feasibility stage Sep-13 Jun-14 83.3

Valhalla QLD 400 Publicly announced Jun-15 Jun-17 50.0


112



quarter ($m)

Watershed Tungsten project QLD 69 Feasibility stage Jun-14 Mar-15 23.0

Westmoreland QLD 300 Publicly announced Dec-14 Dec-18 18.8

White Range QLD 200 Feasibility stage Jun-14 Jun-16 25.0

Wongai Project QLD 500 Feasibility stage Sep-15 Sep-17 62.5 Ashton South East opencut Hunter 83 Feasibility stage Dec-13 Dec-15 10.4 Austar underground (stage 3) Hunter 250 Committed Jun-12 Jun-14 31.3 Bengalla expansion (stage 2) Hunter 180 Feasibility stage Sep-13 Sep-15 22.5

Boggabri opencut Hunter 500 Committed Dec-11 Jun-14 50.0

Bowden's Project Hunter 350 Feasibility stage Dec-13 Jun-16 35.0

Cobbora Hunter 1262.14 Feasibility stage Dec-13 Sep-15 180.3

Doyles Creek Hunter 727 Publicly announced Mar-14 Mar-16 90.9

Drayton South Hunter 520 Feasibility stage Mar-15 Mar-18 43.3 Dubbo Zirconia project Hunter 1064 Feasibility stage Dec-14 Dec-16 133.0 Kooragang Island ammonium nitrate facility Hunter 750 Feasibility stage Jun-14 Jun-15 187.5

Maules Creek Hunter 766 Feasibility stage Jun-14 Jun-16 95.8 Moolarben (stage 2 - OC4, UG1 and UG2) Hunter 120 Feasibility stage Mar-14 Mar-16 15.0 Mount Pleasant Project Hunter 2000

Publicly announced Dec-13 Mar-16 222.2

Mt Penny Hunter 450 Publicly announced Mar-16 Mar-18 56.3

Mt Thorley - Warkworth extension Hunter 629 Feasibility stage Sep-14 Sep-16 78.6 Northparkes (step change expansion) Hunter 750


Ravensworth North (Stage 1) Hunter 1360 Committed Mar-12 Dec-13 194.3

Stratford Hunter 75 Feasibility stage Dec-13 Mar-15 15.0 Tarrawonga Expansion Hunter 142 Feasibility stage Mar-14 Mar-15 35.5 Tomingley (Wyoming) gold project Hunter 116 Committed Dec-13 Jun-14 58.0

Ulan West Hunter 1068 Committed Dec-10 Jun-14 76.3

United Project Hunter 300 Publicly announced Jun-14 Jun-16 37.5

Vickery Hunter 206 Feasibility stage Dec-13 Sep-15 29.4

Watermark Hunter 978 Feasibility stage Jun-14 Dec-16 97.8 West Wallsend Colliery Hunter 260 Feasibility stage Dec-13 Dec-14 65.0


113



quarter ($m)

Wongawilli Colliery Hunter 82 Feasibility stage Jun-14 Jun-16 10.3

Appin Area 9 NSW 820 Committed Sep-12 Sep-16 51.3

Balranald Project NSW 200 Publicly announced Jun-14 Jun-16 25.0

Coalpac consolidation (Cullen Valley and Invincible mines) NSW 200 Feasibility stage Jun-14 Jun-16 25.0

Copper Hill project NSW 420 Publicly announced Jun-14 Jun-16 52.5

Cowal NSW 58 Publicly announced Dec-13 Dec-15 7.3

Dargues Reef (Majors Creek) NSW 80 Committed Jun-13 Dec-15 8.0 Duralie Extension project NSW 150 Feasibility stage Dec-13 Mar-15 30.0 Goulburn Bauxite Project NSW 125


Hawsons NSW 2900 Feasibility stage Dec-14 Dec-17 241.7

Hera NSW 73.5 Committed Jun-12 Jun-14 9.2

Kempfield NSW 67 Feasibility stage Dec-13 Dec-15 8.4 Kingsgate Molybdenum-Bismuth project NSW 125 Feasibility stage Dec-13 Dec-15 15.6

Metropolitan NSW 70 Committed Jun-13 Jun-15 8.8 Moorilda (McPhillamys) NSW 200


North Mine Deeps NSW 200 Publicly announced Mar-14 Dec-15 28.6

NRE No. 1 Colliery NSW 250 Feasibility stage Dec-13 Dec-14 62.5 NRE No. 1 Colliery (preliminary works project) NSW 122 Committed Jun-13 Jun-15 15.3

Potosi (Stage 2 and 3) NSW 58 Committed Jun-11 Jun-13 7.3

Taronga Tin Project NSW 95 Publicly announced Jun-14 Jun-16 11.9

Wallarah underground longwall NSW 700 Feasibility stage Sep-14 Dec-16 77.8

Webbs Silver Project NSW 65 Publicly announced Jun-14 Jun-16 8.1

Woodlawn Retreatment Project NSW 93 Committed Jun-11 Jun-13 11.6 Donald Mineral Sands Project Victoria 282 Feasibility stage Dec-13 Jun-15 47.0 Hazelwood magnesium project Victoria 45 Feasibility stage Mar-14 Mar-15 11.3

Stockman Project Victoria 185 Feasibility stage Dec-13 Dec-15 23.1

Unicorn Victoria 304 Publicly Jun-14 Jun-16 38.0


114



quarter ($m)

announced

WIM 150 Mineral Sands Project Victoria 250 Feasibility stage Jun-14 Jun-16 31.3

Barnes Hill Tasmania 78 Feasibility stage Dec-13 Jun-15 13.0 Dolphin Tungsten Project Tasmania 133 Feasibility stage Dec-13 Dec-15 16.6

Heemskirk Tasmania 125 Publicly announced Sep-14 Dec-15 25.0

Mt Lindsay Tasmania 198 Feasibility stage Dec-13 Dec-15 24.8 Renison Expansion Project (Rentails) Tasmania 200 Feasibility stage Mar-14 Mar-16 25.0

Bigrlyi Northern Territory 270 Feasibility stage Sep-14 Jun-18 18.0

Central Tanami Northern Territory 75


Charley Creek Northern Territory 153


Darwin iron ore berth Northern Territory 325


Gemco Phase 2 Expansion

Northern Territory 270 Committed Jun-11 Jun-13 33.8

Jervois Northern Territory 274 Feasibility stage Dec-13 Dec-14 68.5

McArthur River (phase 3)

Northern Territory 360 Committed Dec-14 Dec-16 45.0

Molyhil (tungsten) Northern Territory 70 Feasibility stage Mar-14 Dec-14 23.3

Mount Peake Northern Territory 563 Feasibility stage Jun-14 Jun-16 70.4

Mt Todd Northern Territory 656


Nolans Project (mine and processing facility)

Northern Territory 1000 Feasibility stage Dec-13 Jun-16 100.0

Ranger 3 Deeps Northern Territory 325


Roper Bar Northern Territory 180 Committed Jun-12 Sep-13 36.0

Roper River Iron Ore project

Northern Territory 267 Feasibility stage Dec-13 Dec-14 66.8

Rover 1 Northern Territory 100


Tanami project Northern Territory 450 Feasibility stage Dec-15 Dec-17 56.3

Tassie Shoal methanol project

Northern Territory 2500 Feasibility stage Mar-15 Jun-17 277.8

Wonarah Phosphate Rock Project

Northern Territory 375 Feasibility stage Mar-15 Mar-18 31.3

Infrastructure projects


115



quarter ($m)

Anketell Point port Pilbara 4000 Publicly announced Dec-14 Jun-17 400.0

Balla Balla slurry pipe and port infrstructure Pilbara 310 Feasibility stage Dec-14 Sep-18 20.7 Burrup ammonium nitrate plant Pilbara 775 Committed Jun-12 Jun-15 64.6 Cape Lambert port and rail expansion Pilbara 5166 Committed Jun-13 Jun-15 645.8 Cape Lambert port expansion Pilbara 3100 Feasibility stage Dec-13 Jun-15 516.7 Jimblebar mine and rail (WAIO) Pilbara 5180 Committed Mar-11 Mar-14 431.7

Nyidinghu Rail Spur Pilbara 750 Publicly announced Jun-14 Jun-16 93.8

Pilbara Independent Rail Pilbara 4000


Port (55 - 155 Mtpa) Pilbara 2300 Committed Mar-11 Jun-13 255.6

Rail (55 - 155 Mtpa) Pilbara 2300 Committed Mar-11 Jun-13 255.6 WAIO optimisation (port blending and rail yards) Pilbara 2500 Committed Mar-11 Mar-14 208.3 Oakajee Port & Rail infrastructure Mid-west 5000


Yogi Mine Project railway Mid-west 150


Esperance Port WA 200 Publicly announced Dec-13 Mar-15 40.0

Port Bonython SA 650 Feasibility stage Dec-13 Dec-17 40.6 Whylla Port Expansion SA 200 Committed Jun-11 Jun-13 25.0 Carmichael Coal Project (mine and rail) Mackay 7100 Feasibility stage Dec-13 Dec-15 887.5 Central Queensland Integrated Rail Project Mackay 2000 Feasibility stage Mar-15 Mar-18 166.7

Dudgeon Point Mackay 12000 Feasibility stage Mar-15 Mar-17 1500.0 Hay Point Coal Terminal (phase 3) Mackay 2710 Committed Sep-12 Jun-14 387.1

Fitzroy Terminal Fitzroy 1200 Feasibility stage Mar-14 Jun-16 133.3 Gladstone Steel Plant Project (stage 1) Fitzroy 2500 Feasibility stage Jun-14 Jun-16 312.5 Moura Link - Aldoga Rail Fitzroy 1000 Feasibility stage Mar-14 Dec-15 142.9 Surat Basin Rail (Southern Missing Link) Fitzroy 1200


Wiggins Island Coal Terminal (stage 1) Fitzroy 2400 Committed Jun-11 Mar-15 160.0


116



quarter ($m)

Wiggins Island Coal Terminal (stage 2 and 3) Fitzroy 2000

Publicly announced Jun-14 Mar-15 666.7

Wiggins Island rail project Fitzroy 900 Committed Mar-15 Dec-20 39.1 Yarwun Coal Terminal (Stage 1) Fitzroy 2000

Publicly announced Sep-14 Mar-18 142.9

Source: BREE (2013), Deloitte Access Economics.


117


Appendix C: Additional forecast tables Projected employment levels by region and sector

Table C.1: Projected employment level by region – Resources project construction, base case

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Kimberley (WA) 853 923 807 692 618 540

Pilbara (WA) 3,058 3,272 2,877 2,499 2,254 1,981

Mid-West (WA) 1,832 2,017 1,803 1,589 1,462 1,319

Goldfields (WA) 1,103 1,206 1,069 932 846 752

Balance of Western Australia 21,729 27,647 18,938 10,344 5,002 -793


Darling Downs (QLD) 1,391 1,717 1,553 1,215 989 750

Fitzroy (QLD) 3,227 4,159 3,864 3,124 2,654 2,129

Mackay (QLD) 3,233 4,062 3,829 3,203 2,809 2,366




New South Wales 14,959 19,966 21,821 13,788 9,676 7,045 Outback-North East (SA) 395 429 444 410 387 368



Tasmania 726 918 826 686 669 656


ACT 274 274 274 274 274 274


Australia – total 85,819 118,825 107,710 70,903 49,325 28,857


Table C.2: Projected employment level by region – Mining operations, base case

Region 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Kimberley (WA) 1,387 1,395 1,448 1,499 1,525 1,543

Pilbara (WA) 17,094 17,569 18,464 19,372 20,036 20,565

Mid-West (WA) 3,293 3,354 3,507 3,664 3,766 3,842

Goldfields (WA) 8,793 8,990 9,431 9,881 10,188 10,425





118


Region 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Fitzroy (QLD) 11,887 11,963 12,725 13,732 14,479 14,957

Mackay (QLD) 16,616 16,709 17,835 19,310 20,407 21,102







Tasmania 5,050 5,056 5,090 5,108 5,108 5,108


ACT 150 150 150 150 150 150


Australia – total 236,690 238,537 243,525 249,111 252,456 254,260


Table C.3:Projected employment level by region – Oil and gas extraction / supply, base case

Region 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Kimberley (WA) 44 85 131 157 169 179

Pilbara (WA) 1,256 2,515 3,937 4,740 5,118 5,395

Mid-West (WA) 137 262 408 495 541 580

Goldfields (WA) 14 21 29 33 35 37




Fitzroy (QLD) 317 810 1,334 1,694 1,929 2,148

Mackay (QLD) 213 580 971 1,241 1,420 1,587


Queensland 10,874 13,538 16,411 18,341 19,565 20,695 Hunter (NSW) 62 77 81 95 152 209





Tasmania 290 291 287 285 283 281

Northern Territory 467 1,481 2,645 4,696 5,854 6,466

ACT 131 135 125 117 111 105


Australia – total 38,943 44,087 49,908 55,349 58,666 61,212



119


Table C.4: Projected employment level by region – Resources project construction, High growth

Region 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Kimberley (WA) 853 984 892 769 679 575

Pilbara (WA) 3,058 3,476 3,170 2,763 2,463 2,107

Mid-West (WA) 1,832 2,147 1,992 1,762 1,601 1,403

Goldfields (WA) 1,103 1,284 1,182 1,034 927 800



Darling Downs (QLD) 1,391 1,947 1,840 1,447 1,166 865

Fitzroy (QLD) 3,227 4,729 4,580 3,708 3,103 2,424

Mackay (QLD) 3,233 4,557 4,454 3,713 3,201 2,624







Tasmania 726 1,138 1,114 931 919 899


ACT 274 361 435 446 455 455


Australia – total 85,819 144,043 144,046 102,887 76,230 48,685


Table C.5: Projected employment level by region – Mining operations, high growth

Region 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Kimberley (WA) 1,387 1,394 1,458 1,523 1,562 1,593

Pilbara (WA) 17,094 17,546 18,725 19,990 20,984 21,809

Mid-West (WA) 3,293 3,350 3,549 3,765 3,922 4,047

Goldfields (WA) 8,793 8,978 9,554 10,176 10,644 11,028




Fitzroy (QLD) 11,887 11,949 13,025 14,421 15,473 16,159

Mackay (QLD) 16,616 16,697 18,279 20,323 21,868 22,865







120


Region 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018


Tasmania 5,050 5,073 5,143 5,176 5,189 5,205


ACT 150 150 150 150 150 150


Australia – total 236,690 238,759 246,128 254,120 259,471 262,927


Table C.6:Projected employment level by region – Oil and gas extraction / supply, high growth

Region 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Kimberley (WA) 44 84 132 161 177 190

Pilbara (WA) 1,256 2,501 3,970 4,855 5,341 5,748

Mid-West (WA) 137 261 412 507 565 618

Goldfields (WA) 14 21 29 34 36 39




Fitzroy (QLD) 317 806 1,381 1,815 2,132 2,427

Mackay (QLD) 213 576 1,006 1,332 1,571 1,796 Balance of Queensland 9,041 8,982 9,044 9,075 9,092 9,116 Queensland 10,874 13,510 16,704 19,057 20,730 22,281 Hunter (NSW) 62 77 82 101 178 257





Tasmania 290 290 288 287 286 285


ACT 131 134 123 116 109 103


Australia – total 38,943 43,924 50,275 56,740 61,210 64,891



121


Table C.7: Projected employment level by region – Resources project construction, low growth

Region 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Kimberley (WA) 853 809 705 609 553 501

Pilbara (WA) 3,058 2,887 2,535 2,216 2,027 1,845

Mid-West (WA) 1,832 1,771 1,581 1,404 1,313 1,229

Goldfields (WA) 1,103 1,059 937 823 759 700

Balance of Western Australia 21,729 18,666 10,910 3,740 -275 -3,947

Western Australia 28,575 25,192 16,668 8,792 4,377 328

Darling Downs (QLD) 1,391 1,422 1,258 978 800 627

Fitzroy (QLD) 3,227 3,428 3,126 2,527 2,174 1,815

Mackay (QLD) 3,233 3,426 3,186 2,682 2,389 2,092

Balance of Queensland 19,014 22,573 18,058 8,637 3,195 -2,323

Queensland 26,865 30,849 25,628 14,825 8,559 2,211 Hunter (NSW) 1,287 1,230 1,250 998 880 847

Balance of New South Wales 13,672 11,602 11,476 4,980 1,689 469


Balance of South Australia 2,054 2,664 3,028 1,503 607 177

South Australia 2,449 3,067 3,435 1,881 967 527 Victoria 6,042 5,253 4,377 2,103 1,055 957

Tasmania 726 722 614 446 393 403


ACT 274 199 160 104 71 81


Australia – total 85,819 83,321 69,444 37,661 20,288 7,708


Table C.8: Projected employment level by region – Mining operations, low growth

Region 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Kimberley (WA) 1,387 1,400 1,439 1,477 1,493 1,502

Pilbara (WA) 17,094 17,696 18,225 18,812 19,216 19,507

Mid-West (WA) 3,293 3,375 3,469 3,572 3,629 3,663

Goldfields (WA) 8,793 9,053 9,319 9,612 9,791 9,910




Fitzroy (QLD) 11,887 12,001 12,446 13,085 13,563 13,870

Mackay (QLD) 16,616 16,752 17,415 18,352 19,052 19,497







122



Tasmania 5,050 5,039 5,044 5,056 5,054 5,048


ACT 150 150 150 150 150 150


Australia – total 236,690 238,553 241,088 244,710 246,580 247,148


Table C.9:Projected employment level by region – Oil and gas extraction / supply, low growth

Region 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Kimberley (WA) 44 86 121 140 148 153

Pilbara (WA) 1,256 2,555 3,617 4,209 4,460 4,616

Mid-West (WA) 137 266 376 441 473 497

Goldfields (WA) 14 21 27 30 32 33




Fitzroy (QLD) 317 816 1,196 1,448 1,604 1,746

Mackay (QLD) 213 583 868 1,058 1,176 1,286


Queensland 10,874 13,556 15,608 16,957 17,754 18,469 Hunter (NSW) 62 77 80 89 127 164





Tasmania 290 290 286 284 282 279


ACT 131 136 126 119 113 107


Australia – total 38,943 44,299 48,434 52,290 54,422 55,875



123


Projected employment levels by occupation and sector

Table C.10: Projected employment level (‘000) by occupation – Resources project construction, Australia, Base case


p.a.

Managers 4,676 6,567 6,221 4,293 3,116 1,912 -16.4%

Professionals 2,699 3,761 3,564 2,467 1,788 1,092 -16.5% Technicians and Trades Workers

51,417 71,281 63,929 41,491 28,537 16,492 -20.3%


215 298 282 196 143 87 -16.5%


8,683 11,922 11,013 7,427 5,256 3,133 -18.4%

Sales Workers 671 912 845 574 410 246 -18.2% Machinery Operators And Drivers

7,376 10,013 9,051 6,011 4,193 2,446 -19.8%

Labourers 10,083 14,071 12,806 8,444 5,882 3,448 -19.3%

Total 85,819 118,825 107,710 70,903 49,325 28,857 -19.6%


Table C.11: Projected employment level (‘000) by occupation – Resources project construction, Australia, High growth


p.a.

Managers 4,676 7,880 8,210 6,165 4,784 3,219 -7.2%

Professionals 2,699 4,510 4,700 3,542 2,745 1,840 -7.4% Technicians and Trades Workers

51,417 86,731 85,925 60,456 44,227 27,852 -11.5%


215 357 371 281 219 147 -7.3%


8,683 14,310 14,539 10,668 8,069 5,274 -9.5%

Sales Workers 671 1,093 1,113 824 629 414 -9.2% Machinery Operators And Drivers

7,376 12,108 12,068 8,704 6,473 4,126 -11.0%

Labourers 10,083 17,054 17,120 12,246 9,085 5,813 -10.4%

Total 85,819 144,043 144,046 102,887 76,230 48,685 -10.7%



124


Table C.12: Projected employment level (‘000) by occupation – Resource projects construction, Australia, Low growth


p.a.

Managers 4,676 4,684 4,080 2,307 1,291 512 -35.7%

Professionals 2,699 2,686 2,339 1,326 740 292 -35.9% Technicians and Trades Workers

51,417 49,666 40,945 21,939 11,704 4,401 -38.8%


215 213 185 105 59 23 -35.8%


8,683 8,500 7,220 3,989 2,177 839 -37.3%


7,376 7,052 5,858 3,199 1,726 653 -38.4%

Labourers 10,083 9,868 8,260 4,488 2,421 921 -38.0%

Total 85,819 83,321 69,444 37,661 20,288 7,708 -38.2%


Table C.13: Projected employment level (‘000) by occupation – Mining operations, Australia, Base case


p.a.

Managers 23,549 24,194 24,834 25,469 26,132 26,783 2.6%


61,679 61,958 62,388 62,681 62,816 62,887 0.4%


1,059 1,080 1,108 1,136 1,171 1,203 2.6%


21,177 21,349 21,344 21,275 21,274 21,252 0.1%

Sales Workers 836 836 837 839 845 849 0.3% Machinery Operators And Drivers

78,350 77,821 79,957 82,979 84,285 84,377 1.5%

Labourers 10,082 10,231 10,356 10,414 10,394 10,345 0.5%

Total 236,690 238,537 243,525 249,111 252,456 254,260 1.4%



125


Table C.14: Projected employment level (‘000) by occupation – Mining operations, Australia, High growth


p.a.

Managers 23,549 24,207 25,053 25,892 26,740 27,569 3.2%


61,679 62,125 63,175 64,000 64,568 64,992 1.1%


1,059 1,080 1,117 1,154 1,197 1,238 3.2%


21,177 21,372 21,543 21,630 21,765 21,865 0.6%


78,350 77,840 80,877 84,882 86,963 87,624 2.3%

Labourers 10,082 10,249 10,463 10,602 10,647 10,650 1.1%

Total 236,690 238,759 246,128 254,120 259,471 262,927 2.1%


Table C.15: Projected employment level (‘000) by occupation – Mining operations, Australia, Low growth


p.a.

Managers 23,549 24,210 24,650 25,136 25,674 26,199 2.2%


61,679 61,783 61,629 61,543 61,390 61,215 -0.2%


1,059 1,082 1,101 1,123 1,152 1,179 2.2%


21,177 21,346 21,176 21,000 20,914 20,807 -0.4%


78,350 77,915 79,098 81,256 81,944 81,587 0.8%

Labourers 10,082 10,215 10,249 10,242 10,175 10,087 0.0%

Total 236,690 238,553 241,088 244,710 246,580 247,148 0.9%



126


Table C.16: Projected employment level (‘000) by occupation – Oil and gas extraction / supply, Australia, Base case


p.a.

Managers 5,518 6,339 7,255 8,134 8,755 9,298 11.0%


8,166 9,175 10,222 11,125 11,592 11,904 7.8%


147 167 189 211 227 239 10.2%


7,168 8,044 8,950 9,744 10,196 10,517 8.0%


2,876 3,179 3,592 4,015 4,244 4,381 8.8%

Labourers 1,497 1,693 1,899 2,075 2,166 2,229 8.3%

Total 38,943 44,087 49,908 55,349 58,666 61,212 9.5%


Table C.17: Projected employment level (‘000) by occupation – Oil and gas extraction / supply, Australia, High growth


p.a.

Managers 5,518 6,312 7,298 8,321 9,111 9,829 12.2%


8,166 9,170 10,344 11,454 12,144 12,665 9.2%


147 166 190 216 236 253 11.4%


7,168 8,012 9,006 9,969 10,609 11,114 9.2%


2,876 3,165 3,620 4,125 4,442 4,660 10.1%

Labourers 1,497 1,688 1,913 2,126 2,257 2,357 9.5%

Total 38,943 43,924 50,275 56,740 61,210 64,891 10.8%



127


Table C.18: Projected employment level (‘000) by occupation – Oil and gas extraction / supply, Australia, Low growth


p.a.

Managers 5,518 6,375 7,057 7,711 8,156 8,527 9.1%


8,166 9,170 9,854 10,445 10,689 10,806 5.8%


147 168 184 200 211 220 8.3%


7,168 8,087 8,704 9,238 9,501 9,648 6.1%


2,876 3,199 3,485 3,785 3,924 3,984 6.7%

Labourers 1,497 1,699 1,842 1,961 2,011 2,039 6.4%

Total 38,943 44,299 48,434 52,290 54,422 55,875 7.5%



128


Appendix D: Detailed occupational forecasts Data for the following tables is contained within the Excel attachment ‘DAE-AWPA Appendix D data tables’.

All tables report at the detailed occupational (4 digit ANZSCO) level. The detailed occupational projections are subject to the same key drivers as shown in this report at the broad occupational (1 digit ANZSCO level), applied to base level employment or skills supply information. For those detailed occupations where a small amount of demand and/or supply activity is recorded during the base period, that is generally also reflected during the forecast period. Low sample sizes and/or potential for coding error in the base level data suggests that projections for such occupations where there is a small amount of activity reported should be treated with caution.

Table D.1: Projected employment level by detailed occupation by scenario and sector

Table D.2: Projected total qualifications by detailed occupation by scenario and sector

Table D.3: Projected additional qualifications required by detailed occupation by scenario and sector

Table D.4: Projected qualifications due to replacement demand by detailed occupation by scenario and sector

Table D.5: Projected net replacement rate (%) by detailed occupation

Table D.6: Domestic student supply, Resources project construction

Table D.7: Domestic student supply, Mining operations

Table D.8: Domestic student supply, oil and gas extraction and supply

Table D.9: Net overseas migration supply, Resources project construction

Table D.10: Net overseas migration supply, mining operations

Table D.11: Net overseas migration supply, oil and gas extraction / supply

Table D.12: Total additional supply, Resources project construction

Table D.13: Total additional supply, mining operations

Table D.14: Total additional supply, oil and gas extraction / supply


129


Table D.15: Exploration / Planning employment, Census 2011

Table D.16: Supply less demand (qualifications) by detailed occupation by scenario and sector

Table D.17: Supply less demand (skilled persons) by detailed occupation by scenario and sector

Limitation of our work

General use restriction

This report is prepared solely for the use of the Australian Workforce and Productivity

Agency. This report is not intended to and should not be used or relied upon by anyone else

and we accept no duty of care to any other person or entity. The report has been prepared

for the purpose of advising on future skill needs in Australia’s resources sector. You should not refer to or use our name or the advice for any other purpose.

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In Australia, the member firm is the Australian partnership of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu. As one of Australia’s leading professional services firms. Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu and its affiliates provide audit, tax, consulting, and financial advisory services through approximately 5,400 people across the country. Focused on the creation of value and growth, and known as an employer of choice for innovative human resources programs, we are dedicated to helping our clients and our people excel. For more information, please visit our web site at www.deloitte.com.au.

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