Modelling Needs and Resources Modelling Needs and Resources of Older People to 2030of Older People to 2030

A collaborative research project funded A collaborative research project funded by the Research Councils’ New by the Research Councils’ New

Dynamics of Ageing programmeDynamics of Ageing programme

PartnersPartnersAcademicAcademicLondon School of Economics (Dept of Social Policy, London School of Economics (Dept of Social Policy,

Personal Social Services Research Unit)Personal Social Services Research Unit)

University of Leicester (Dept of Health Sciences)University of Leicester (Dept of Health Sciences)

London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (Centre for Population Studies)(Centre for Population Studies)

University of Essex (Dept of Health & Human University of Essex (Dept of Health & Human Sciences)Sciences)

Pensions Policy InstitutePensions Policy Institute

Non-academicNon-academicDepartment for Work and PensionsDepartment for Work and Pensions

AimsAims To produce high quality analysis to inform To produce high quality analysis to inform

public debate and development of future public debate and development of future long-term care and pensions policy up to long-term care and pensions policy up to 20302030

ByBy projecting the numbers, disability status, projecting the numbers, disability status,

family circumstances, income, savings and family circumstances, income, savings and care needs of older people, over the next 30 care needs of older people, over the next 30 yearsyears

assessing the affordability and distribution of assessing the affordability and distribution of costs and benefits of costs and benefits of combined policy combined policy options for pensions and long-term careoptions for pensions and long-term care

accounting for links between care needs and accounting for links between care needs and economic resources in later lifeeconomic resources in later life

MethodsMethods

an integrated programme of new an integrated programme of new statistical analysis and modellingstatistical analysis and modelling

building on pre-existing modelsbuilding on pre-existing models sensitivity testing to key trendssensitivity testing to key trends scenarios on key unknownsscenarios on key unknowns

The Team and Time ScaleThe Team and Time Scale Prof Mike Murphy, LSEProf Mike Murphy, LSE Profs Carol Jagger & James Lindesay, Profs Carol Jagger & James Lindesay,

LeicesterLeicester Prof Emily Grundy, LSHTMProf Emily Grundy, LSHTM Prof Ruth Hancock, EssexProf Ruth Hancock, Essex Raphael Wittenberg, Adelina Comas-Raphael Wittenberg, Adelina Comas-

Herrera, Linda Pickard, Derek King, Juliette Herrera, Linda Pickard, Derek King, Juliette Malley, PSSRUMalley, PSSRU

Chris Curry, Adam Steventon, PPIChris Curry, Adam Steventon, PPI Department for Work and PensionsDepartment for Work and Pensions BTBT

Time scale: Jan 2007 - Dec 2009Time scale: Jan 2007 - Dec 2009

5 linked work packages5 linked work packages

Mortality trends and their implications

(WP1)

Future disease patterns & their implications for

disability in later life(WP2)

Changing family units & kinship

structure(WP3)

Household & family resources

(WP4)

Projections of pensions,

incomes, savings, care (paid &

unpaid); expenditure on

pensions & long-term care

(WP5)

User Engagement & DisseminationUser Engagement & Dissemination

An early seminar for users and An early seminar for users and researchers to discuss the research researchers to discuss the research programmeprogramme

An advisory group of research users An advisory group of research users and scholars; 2 meetings a yearand scholars; 2 meetings a year

A web site and a regular email A web site and a regular email newsletternewsletter

Events to discuss early findings and Events to discuss early findings and related research by othersrelated research by others

Further informationFurther information

A web site will be developed with A web site will be developed with links from all partners’ web siteslinks from all partners’ web sites

email: j.n.malley@lse.ac.ukemail: j.n.malley@lse.ac.uk