Monitoramento da concentraçãode gases de efeito estufa na atmosfera

Paulo ArtaxoInstituto de Física da USP

Os impactos econômicos das mudanças climáticasFEA/IEA‐USP 17 Março 2010

Largest variability & uncertainties are in carbon fluxes from land use change and 'residual terrestrial carbon sink'.

How Humans Have Changed the Carbon Cycle

The Conceptual Framework

Disturbances EcosystemPhysiology

AtmosphericCarbon

TerrestrialCarbon

Ocean/CoastalCarbon

BiologicalPump

ClimateChange

andVariabil.Solubility

Pump

Unperturbed C Cycle

The Conceptual Framework

Disturbances EcosystemPhysiology

AtmosphericCarbon

TerrestrialCarbon

Ocean/CoastalCarbon

BiologicalPump

ClimateChange

andVariabil.Solubility

Pump

Unperturbed C CyclePerturbed C Cycle

Land UseSystems

IndustryTransportSystems

Ocean-useSystems

FossilCarbon

The Conceptual Framework

Disturbances EcosystemPhysiology

AtmosphericCarbon

TerrestrialCarbon

Ocean/CoastalCarbon

BiologicalPump

ClimateChange

andVariabil.Solubility

Pump

Unperturbed C CyclePerturbed C Cycle

Land UseSystems

IndustryTransportSystems

Ocean-useSystems

FossilCarbon

Perceptionsof humanwelfare

Changes ininstitutions& technol.

Human Response

Abordagem integrada de observaçõesdo ciclo do carbono

µmdm

ha

10 km

1000 km

Verificação de processos

Previsão integradora

Carbon Balance in Amazonia

1- Richey et al., 2002; 2- Melack et al., 2004; 3 -Rasera et al., unpublish data; 4- Johnson et al., 2006;5- Telles et al.,2003; 6- Ometto et al., 2005; 7- Houghton et al., 2000; 8- Morison et al.,2000; 9- Putz & Junk, 1997; 10-Wissmar et al., 1981

Manaus-K34

Fazenda NS Aparecida

Reserva Jarú

Pantanal

Flona-Santarém

Caxiuana

Brasilia-Cerrado

Torres do experimento LBA: Medidas de fluxos de carbono em larga escala

The “Keeling Curve”

Concentração de CO2, metano e óxido nitroso nos últimos 650.000 anos.A linha preta é a temperatura na mesma escala temporal.

NOAA Greenhouse gas monitoring stations

WMO Greenhouse gas monitoring stations

Redes de monitoramento global da concentração de gases de efeito estufa

Dados meteorológicos: > 10.000 estaçõesDados de concentração de gases: <100

NOAA Greenhouse gas monitoring stations

CO2 CH4

WMO Greenhouse gas monitoring stations

WMO: medidas de N20, SF6 e outros gases

Relative contribution of major greenhouse gases to the overall change in radiative forcing between 1979 and 1984 (a) and from 2003 to 2008 (b). The importance of CO2 has increased substantially.

CO2 emMauna Loa de 1958‐2010

(WMO Greenhouse gas bulletin 2010)

Relative contribution of major greenhouse gases to the overall change in radiative forcing between 1979 and 1984 

Medidas de CO2 por “Wave Length Scanning Cavity Ring Down Spectroscopy “

Very long effective path length (~14 km) 

Medidas de CO2 por espectroscopia de infravermelho não dispersiva

Medidas de Fluxos de CO2 por Eddy Correlation20 m above canopy height

11 m above ground (stem space)

gas analyser ; data acquisition

vacuumpump

Opa

que

Teflo

n tu

be (6

5m)

capillaryinlet cone+ filter

ultrasonicanemometer53 m

data transfer line

11m

1m

mean canopyheight ~ 33 m

1m above forest floor

NEE measurements

1)Eddy covariance: CO2, CH4, H2O, H

2) Automated chambers, connected to GC

''cwFc ≈

Eddy 1 Eddy 2c1w1

c2w2

Sonic anemometer

Santarém km83  H2O, CO2 analyzer

Radiometers PAR,net

Time of day0 6 12 18 24

NE

E, μ m

ol C

O2

m-2

s-1

-20

-10

0

10

Time of day0 6 12 18 24

NE

E, μ m

ol C

O2

m-2

s-1

-20

-10

0

10

Manaus K34JaruCaxiuanaFazenda NS

Mean Diurnal trend of CO2 fluxes at four LBA sites

Dry

Wet

Dry seasons:

•Forest peak uptake similar, nights different.•Pasture lower uptake!

Wet seasons:

•Forests and pasture very similar.

Dependency of soil temperature

Dependency of soil moisture

Forest in RondoniaSoil respiration with automatic chambers

AMACAYACU

NOEL KEMPFFTAMBOPATA

YASUNI

IQUITOSMANAUS/BDFF

CAXIUANA

BRAGANCA

TAPAJOS

JATUN SACHA

RAINFOR (Rede Amazonica de Inventários Florestais)

SAN CARLOS

BOLFOR

JARU

ACRE

NW TRANSECT

SOUTH TRANSECT

PEIXE-BOI

JARI

Malhi et al 2002, Journal of Vegetation Science, 13, 429-450

The Use of Biometric Techniques to Estimate the Carbon Balance and Carbon Dynamics of Amazonian Forests

Above-Ground Wood Production (t C ha-1 year-1)

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1

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JEN

-06

CY

B-0

1JE

N-0

9H

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-21

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UZ-

04JA

S-0

3Y

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-01

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Z-03

PA

K-0

3TA

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0M

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-03

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-02

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-02

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-22

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-03

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-05

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-02

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R-0

1S

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-03

Site

Gro

wth

Venezuela

Brazil

N PeruS Peru

Bolivia

Guyanas

Ecuador

RAINFOR - Above - groundwood production for 97 sites

Malhi et al, in prep

Medidas de gases de efeito estufa em larga escala

LBA BARCA –Balanço regional de Carbono na Amazônia

Experimento LBA BARCA – Balanço Regional de Carbono na Amazonia

Medidas contínuas de metano e CO2 em Manaus

CH4

GEOS‐CHEMCO2 surface fluxes

Ocean fluxes (1013 cm-2s-1)

1x1013=0.16 μmole m-2 s-1

Land fluxes (1014 cm-2s-1)

Medidascombinadas com modelos globais

Modelamento global de fontes e sorvedouros de carbono“Inverse Modeling”

12 "GCM"-type models calculate CO2 annual mean surface fluxes with given emissions, then invert to obtain optimal surface fluxes in 22 regions

North American Carbon Program ‐ Continental scaleMonitoring CO2 and tracers across North America

• Estimate carbon balance over large areas• Quantify variations in fluxes in response to climate variation• Optimized system for atmospheric flask and in-situ sampling• Improve top down approaches to better scale the fluxes to the regional level

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8*

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Des

flore

stat

ion

(km

² per

yea

r)

Deforestation in Amazonia 1977-2009 in km² per year

* annual average per decade Data from INPE, 2009

7.000 Km²in 2009

What public policies are needed to sustain this reduction?

As of 2008, 17% of Amazonia was deforested. By 2050, if current trends continue, about 40% of the forest could be cleared.

Tropical forests are resilient to seasonal droughts, but after a few years, carbon losses are very significant.

Rain Exclusion Experiments in LBA

Drought of 2005: unxpected effects in the Amazonian Ecosystem

precipitation anomaly vegetation “greenness” anomaly

Annual aboveground biomass change during the 2005 interval.

Effect of the 2005 drought in the

carbon balance in Amazonia

Phillips et al. 2009 Science

Drought sensitivity of the Amazon Rainforest

Saleska et al., (2007) Amazon forests green‐up during 2005 drought. Science, 318: 612.Samanta et al. (2010) Amazon forests did not green‐up during the 2005 drought. GeophysRes. Lett. 37, L05401.

Somente com medidas cuidadosas e de longo prazo respondemos a questões cruciais:

Amazonian Tall Tower ObservatoryATTO – 320 meters

Long term broad objectives

observatory

Medidas de CO2 do espaço

Parte do A-Train da NASA, constelação de 8 satélites

WMO – GEOSS ‐ Global Earth Observation System of Systems

Obrigado pela atenção !!!