monitoring social and geopolitical events with big data€¦ · monitoring economic, social and...

April 2018

Monitoring social and geopolitical

events with Big Data Boston University Alumni Club of Spain

Tomasa Rodrigo

Monitoring economic, social and geopolitical events with Big Data

Index

01

02

Opportunities in the digital era.

Big Data at BBVA Research

Monitoring geopolitical and

social events


01 Opportunities in the digital era.


Big Data & Big Models at BBVA Research Monitoring economic, social and geopolitical events with Big Data

Traditional data could not answer some relevant questions…

4

Social awareness and the Arab Spring

Political events and social reaction

Natural disasters and epidemics

… preventing us to measure their economic impact…

… in a world with increasing risks and uncertainty

The use of Big Data and Data science techniques allows

us to quantify these trends


New framework in the digital era

5

Novel data-driven computational approaches are needed to exploit the

new opportunities in the new digital era where data can be used to study

the world in real time, both at micro or macro level

New answers to

old questions

Better and faster

infrastructure

New data

availability

Higher computational abilities

to face more data granularity

Combination of historical

data with real time data

Advanced data science

techniques and algorithms


… which needs the development of new competences to take

advantage of it

New data may end up changing the way in which economists approach empirical questions

and the tools they use to answer them 6

Making the right

questions

Developing the

data management

and programming

capabilities to work

with large-scale

datasets

Deepening the

statistical and

econometric

skills to analyze

and deal with

high-dimensional

data

Interpreting the

results:

summarize,

describe and

analyze the

information



Our results Our datasets Our work

• We analyze geopolitical,

political, social and

economic issues using

large- scale databases and

quantitative data-driven

methods rather than just

qualitative introspection

• Media data to exploit news

intensity, geographic density

of events (location

intelligence) and emotions

across the world (sentiment

analysis)

• BBVA aggregate and

anonymized data from

clients digital footprint

• Data from the web (Central

Banks’ reports among

others)

• We are at the research

frontier in the geopolitical

and economic area

contributing to the

innovation and increasing

our internal and external

reach

7


02 Monitoring geopolitical and

social events


External databases: GDELT

… georeferenced across

the entire planet…

… including over 300

events around the world

and more than 30000

themes…

…and collecting emotions

using some of the most

sophisticated algorithms

Open database of human

society from every corner of

the globe dating back to

1979 …

Global Database on Events Location and Tone

(More information can be found in the annex) 9


Tracking Geopolitics on real time… is useful to identify the main hot spots and potential spillovers

Source: www.gdelt.org & BBVA Research

Conflict Intensity Map 2017-18 (Number of conflicts/ Total events)

10

http://www.gdelt.org/


… getting the historical perspective, main hot spots and

contagion effects


BBVA Research World Protest and Conflict Intensity Index 1979-2018

World Protest Intensity Map 1979- 2017

79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

USA

UK

Norway

Sweden

Austria

Germany

France

Netherlands

Italy

Spain

Belgium

Ireland

Portugal

Greece

Poland

Czech Republic

Hungary

Bulgaria

Romania

Croatia

Turkey

Russia

Ukraine

Georgia

Kazakhstan

Moldova

Azerbaijan

Armenia

Morocco

Algeria

Tunisia

Libya

Egypt

Israel

Jordan

Syria

Iraq

Iran

UAE

Bahrain

Qatar

Oman

Saudi Arabia

Mexico

Brazil

Chile

Colombia

Peru

Argentina

Venezuela

China

Hong Kong

Korea

Thailand

Indonesia

Malaysia

Philippines

India

Pakistan

Afghanistan

EM

Eu

ro

pe &

CIS

Develo

ped

Markets

N.

Afric

a &

Mid

dle

East

LA

TA

MA

sia

Protests

Conflict

11



Instability in the MENA region had an important spill over

effect: the refugee crisis


BBVA Research Refugees Flows Map in 2015-18 (Number of media citations about refugees’ inflows –orange- and outflows –red)

12

Caucasus ISIS expanded to the North

Caucasus as part of its wider

international strategy. Afghanistan

ISIS presence in

Afghanistan was also

important.

Middle East Despite some ISIS setbacks

in Syria and Iraq thanks to

the International Coalition,

threats and risks remained.

North Africa ISIS stronghold in Libya

and its expansion around

the neighborhood

deteriorated the already

critical situation.

Europe Attacks in Europe revived

fears and threats, as well

as nationalist claims.

ISIS presence in the Middle East and the neighborhood in 2016 (Number of news referring to ISIS presence / Total events)



Understanding the refugees transit corridors through the

media and high frequency data

Country network on refugees: media coverage (Edges thickness reflect how

often each pair of countries

were mentioned together.

Nodes size show the centrality.

Clusters capture the potential

transit corridors.

13 Source: www.gdelt.org & BBVA Research

Turkey, Italy and Greece

appear as central

hubs for refugees

crossing the

Mediterranean, before

they transit to other

European countries.

Syria has become the

world’s largest driver

of migration in recent

years. The

neighboring countries

like Iran and

Lebanon have also

host a significant

number of refugees.



The refugee crisis has awakened interest in the world

media, specially in some regions

Refugees in the media: worldcloud of main commented topics together with refugee

14 Source: www.gdelt.org & BBVA Research

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

Feb

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Aug-1

5

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ma

y-1

6

Aug-1

6

No

v-1

6

Feb

-17

Ma

y-1

7

Aug-1

7

No

v-1

7

Feb

-18

Europe Asia America

Refugees in the media: media coverage of refugees by region



0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Oct-

15

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Jan-1

6

Feb

-16

Ma

r-1

6

Apr-

16

Ma

y-1

6

Jun-1

6

Jul-1

6

Aug-1

6

Sep-1

6

Oct-

16

No

v-1

6

De

c-1

6

Jan-1

7

Daily Weekly

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

Feb

-15

Apr-

15

Jun-1

5

Aug-1

5

Oct-

15

De

c-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Apr-

16

Jun-1

6

Aug-1

6

Oct-

16

De

c-1

6

Fe

b-1

7

Apr-

17

Jun-1

7

Aug-1

7

Oct-

17

De

c-1

7

Refugee Deal Refugee Deal

Source: BBVA Research and UNHCR Source: www.gdelt.org & BBVA Research

Media sentiment on Turkey – European Union relationship (Lower values indicate a deterioration of Turkey-EU relations)

Daily and Weekly Average Refugee Arrivals to Greece (UNHCR estimates)

This situation led to the EU & Turkey deal on refugees to

reduce the number of refugees that goes to Europe



POLICY RESPONSE

Economic effects of the refugee inflows in Europe

16

Short term

Increase of aggregate

demand

Fiscal expansion

Medium - Long term

Labour market

GDP

Fiscal sustainability

High uncertainty and

heterogeneous effects

depending on the country

A comprehensive policy

response and a long-term

strategy is necessary to

turn into positive the

macroeconomic effects

in the medium to long term.

MACROECONOMIC IMPACT


You can find us at:

bbvaresearch.com

bbva-research

@BBVAResearch

Tomasa Rodrigo

@TomasaRodrigo

Thank you!

April 2018

Monitoring social and geopolitical

events with Big Data Boston University Alumni Club of Spain

Tomasa Rodrigo

monitoring social and geopolitical events with big data€¦ · monitoring economic, social and...

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