morgan brennan, forbes
DESCRIPTION
Editor of Forbes magazine Real Estate gives a presentation on the state of Luxury Real Estate 2012. From The Key 2012, luxury real estate conference by Concierge Auctions.TRANSCRIPT
#THEKEY2012
REAL ESTATE IN THE NEWS
MORGAN BRENNAN, FORBES
WHAT’S GOING ON AT FORBES
• The “95-year old startup”
• Subscriptions up more than 5%
• 37.5 Million “Unique Visitors”
#THEKEY2012 MORGAN BRENNAN, FORBES
Real Estate Coverage
• Forbes Magazine
• Forbes Life Magazine
• Forbes.com
• Syndica<on Partners
PROPERTY PORN Forbes Life ‘Castles’ Feature: H. Keith Melton’s Real-‐life Spy mansion
NATIONAL NUMBERS
• Home Prices: • Home Prices: 4% • Exis<ng-‐Home Sales: 4.79 million units • New Home Sales: 389,000 • Housing Starts: 894,000 • Foreclosure Rate: 1 of every 728 homes
HOME PRICE HISTORY: SIGNALING RECOVERY FHFA graphs out the evolu<on of na<onal home sales prices.
HOME PRICE The FHFA maps out third quarter price apprecia<on according to state. Dark blue signifies the largest price jumps while red signifies the largest
losses.
Best Markets For Home Prices
• Phoenix, AZ : 9.5% • Bismarck, ND: 8% • Cape Coral-‐Fort Myers, FL: 7.5% • Boise City, ID: 7% • Bakersfield, CA: 4%
Worst Markets For Home Prices
• Gainesville, FL: -‐7% • Tallahassee, FL: -‐6% • Poughkeepsie, NY: -‐6% • Olympia, WA: -‐5% • Atlanta, GA: -‐4%
HOME BUYING
WHERE • Tech Hubs
• Energy Belt
• Safe-‐Haven Ci<es
• Luxe Second Home Markets
WHO • First-‐Time Home Buyers
• Investors
• Foreign Buyers
• Billionaires
U.S. FORECLOSURE ACTIVITY RealtyTrac’s Foreclosure Heat Wave Map shows state filing
ac<vity for October.
HOUSING AND THE ECONOMY
• 0.3% of GDP (12% of en<re rate)
• Residen<al investment: posi<ve for 1st <me since 2005
• Interest Rates projected to stay at record lows in 2013
RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION
FISCALL CLIFF
• Mortgage Interest Deduc<on
• Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act
• Federal Income Taxes
2013 PROJECTIONS
• Home Sales: 8% increase (NAR)
• Home prices: 2-‐3% increase (Freddie Mac) • Mortgage Delinquencies: down to 5% (TransUnion)