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1-Nov-2013

Morning Matters

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WHAT’S INSIDE

On The Platter

SVI PCL (SVI TB;FVTHB5.0-Buy): Solid Core Operating Results

SVI's 3Q13 earnings plunged 64% y-o-y to THB206m as it received an insurance payment that was THB364m lower y-o-y. Operating profit and EBITDA surged 55% and 39% y-o-y respectively due to margin expansion and changes in product mix. While SVI’s core operation did better than it did in 2Q13, we see continuing improvement in 4Q13 and FY14. Maintain BUY, with our THB5.00 TP offering a 37% upside and 4.8% dividend yield.

MEDIA HIGHLIGHTS

JAS could face massive debt repayment in excess of B8bn

BAY shareholders approve BTMU deal

SCCC profit soars on strong demand

Glow's net profit rises 4.5% in Q3

Bangkok Land condo taps area's growth

Central Bangkok condo launches leap in Q3

ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS

Chicago Index Jumps to Highest Since March 2011 on Orders

U.K. Business Poll Finds EU Membership Costs Outweigh Benefits

Central Banks Make Swaps Permanent as Crisis Backstop

Euro-Area Inflation Rate Falls to Four-Year Low

Jobless Claims in U.S. Drop as California Clears Backlog

U.K. Mortgage Approvals Rise to Highest in 5 1/2 Years

SET Intra-Day Graph

Source: Bloomberg

Key Market Indices (31 October 2013)

Value Chg % Chg % YTD

SET 1442.88 11.76 0.8% 3.7%

SET50 987.06 9.97 1.0% 4.4%

SET100 2172.84 20.78 1.0% 4.5%

Dow Jones 15545.75 -73.01 -0.5% 18.6%

S&P500 1756.54 -6.77 -0.4% 23.2%

Nasdaq 3919.71 -10.91 -0.3% 29.8%

FTSE 6731.43 -46.27 -0.7% 14.1%

FSSTI 3210.67 -19.77 -0.6% 1.4%

Hang Seng 23206.37 -97.65 -0.4% 2.4%

Nikkei 14387.60 -66.49 -0.5% 38.5%

KLCI 1806.85 -10.53 -0.6% 7.0%

SHANGHAI SE 2141.61 -18.85 -0.9% -5.6%

JCI 4510.63 -64.25 -1.4% 4.5%

SET 5-yr avg 2012 2013F

PE (x) 14.0 15.7 14.6

P/BV (x) 1.8 2.3 2.2

Yield (%) 4.1 3.0 3.2

Key Statistics

SET Value by investor Type: Daily

Buy (THBm) Sell (THBm) Net (THBm)

Institution 3,534.16 4,167.18 -633.02

Proprietary 4,703.01 4,782.12 -79.12

Foreign 10,007.89 11,597.71 -1,589.82

Retail 19,302.39 17,000.43 2,301.96

SET Value by investor Type

MTD (THBm) YTD (THBm) Institution -2,325.82 81,160.63

Proprietary 2,524.11 -1,496.50

Foreign 1,167.64 -105,251.67

Retail -1,365.92 25,587.54

SET50 Index Future

Long Short Net MTD YTD

Institution 6,100 5,354 746 -1,502 10,920

Foreign 2,819 2,691 128 2,220 -9,550

Local 7,837 8,711 -874 -718 -1,370

Foreign Fund Flows (USDm) Last MTD YTD YTD(%) -51.1 37.6 -3,429.3 -314.6

See important disclosures at the end of this report 2

Media Highlights

JAS could face massive debt repayment in excess of B8bn

Jasmine International Plc (JAS) may need to pay back more than 8 billion baht plus interest after the Supreme Court overturned its business rehabilitation plan, say stock analysts. The Bankruptcy Court approved the plan 11 years ago, with 70% haircuts on JAS's 11.8-billion-baht debt. Thanachart Securities in a note said JAS may need to pay 8 billion baht and 7% per year in interest for the past 11 years in the worst-case scenario. It predicts a two-baht dip in JAS's target price. JAS reported to the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) yesterday the Supreme Court's verdict in August will void the business rehabilitation plan approved by the Bankruptcy Court in 2003. Creditors' claims against the company will then revert to their former conditions prior to Sept 17, 2002, the date the court ordered the company to undergo business restructuring. The company said its legal adviser believes creditors with debt before Sept 17, 2002, will be entitled to make claims against the company for additional repayments, calculated as of the date the legal opinion was issued, for a total not exceeding 1.34 billion baht. (Bangkok Post) BAY shareholders approve BTMU deal

Bank of Ayudhya (BAY) welcomes Japan's largest bank, the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd (BTMU), as its new major shareholder, says Veraphan Teepsuwan, the chairman of Thailand's fifth-largest bank. He said his bank stands ready to provide financial support in securing BAY's competitiveness amid intense regional competition in banking. With the combined strength of BTMU and its parent, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG), the world's fifth-largest financial institution, BAY will be able to draw upon a huge capital base to support local and regional expansion, said Mr Veraphan. "With access to their capital base and global network, we'll be a lot stronger than our competitors, both at home and abroad," he said. As well, it will create synergy between BAY's main strengths in retail and SME business and BTMU's strengths in corporate banking and multinational clients (Bangkok Post) SCCC profit soars on strong demand

Siam City Cement Plc (SCCC), Thailand's second-biggest cement maker, posted a 52% year-on-year rise in net profit to 1.21 billion baht in the third quarter, thanks to solid domestic demand and higher cement prices. Net sales hit 7.5 billion baht, up 14.5% from the same period of 2012, managing director Philippe Arto said in a filing with the Stock Exchange of Thailand yesterday. For the nine-month period, earnings rose 40% year-on-year to 4.04 billion baht as sales surged 12.7% to 22.57 billion. "Solid demand continued for domestic cement and other construction material businesses, due to ongoing infrastructure projects, commercial construction activity and real estate sector development," (Bangkok Post) Glow's net profit rises 4.5% in Q3

Glow Energy Plc (GLOW) reported an unreviewed third-quarter net profit of 1.92 billion baht, up 4.48% year-on-year.From January to September, the unreviewed net profit totalled 5.63 billion baht, up 45.03%, the company said in a statement to the Stock Exchange of Thailand on Wednesday. For the nine-month period, revenue rose 25% to 52.11 billion baht due to new sales of electricity to the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (Egat) and industrial customers. Sales of steam also increased on higher gas prices. Glow is an independent power producer with cogeneration facilities. The cogeneration business sells electricity to Egat under the small power producer programme, as well as electricity, steam and water to customers in the Map Ta Phut Industrial Estate and Rayong. (Bangkok Post) Bangkok Land condo taps area's growth

SET-listed Bangkok Land Plc (BLAND) is developing the second phase of its Double Lake condominium project in Muang Thong Thani to cater to higher demand in northern Bangkok. The new phase, worth about 525 million baht, will comprise two buildings with a combined 298 units priced from 1.99 million baht. It will target buyers who work around Muang Thong Thani and Chaeng Watthana Road, managing director Peter Kanjanapas said yesterday. Bangkok Land sold all 149 units in the first phase worth 333 million baht. They are due to be delivered this month. Construction of Double Lake's second phase started in September and will be completed in the fourth quarter of 2014. About 500,000 people live in Muang Thong Thani and 15 million people visit events at its Impact exhibition centre annually, according to CB Richard Ellis (Thailand). Its research projects new condo supply in suburban Bangkok will increase to 47,489 units this year, up 53.54% from 30,930 units in 2012. Mr Peter said the company has 500 rai of land at Muang Thong Thani for developing future projects. (Bangkok Post) Central Bangkok condo launches leap in Q3

Bangkok's central business district (CBD) condo market recorded a rise in third-quarter launches with 2,440 units, compared with 1,600 in the second quarter. Despite warnings of rising household debt in the overall economy, developers continued to show modest confidence in homebuyer appetite by launching new projects before the year-end festivities, which take place over what is usually a quieter period for housing activity, according to property consultant DTZ. The central zone Chidlom, Phloenchit, Ratchadamri, Rama I, Sam Yan and Ratchathewi was especially active with four project launches, accounting for 71% (1,700 units) of total launches in the third quarter. Listed residential developers were the most active in the third quarter, in both the CBD and suburban areas. In the wake of debt concerns and difficulty in sourcing for loans, most new launches in the third quarter were in the Grade A segment, with an average launch price of 140,000 baht per sq m.In the previous two quarters, new projects were pricier, mostly in the luxury and super luxury segments. The average price in the second quarter was 152,000 baht per sq m. (Bangkok Post)

See important disclosures at the end of this report 3

Economic Highlights

Chicago Index Jumps to Highest Since March 2011 on Orders

Business activity expanded in October at the fastest pace since March 2011 as orders and production surged, indicating U.S. manufacturing is gaining traction and will help fuel the world’s biggest economy. The MNI Chicago Report business barometer jumped to 65.9 from 55.7 in September, the biggest monthly increase in more than three decades. Readings above 50 signal expansion. The index exceeded the most optimistic estimate in Bloomberg survey, in which the median projection was 55. A gauge of orders advanced to the highest level in nine years. The figures show demand strengthened through the budget impasse that resulted in a partial federal government shutdown for half the month. Recovering overseas markets, along with gains in the U.S. auto and housing industries, will help keep factory floors humming. (Bloomberg) U.K. Business Poll Finds EU Membership Costs Outweigh Benefits

A YouGov Plc poll of British businesses found 46 percent think the cost of complying with single-market regulation outweighs the benefits of being in the European Union, giving a boost to those in Prime Minister David Cameron’s Tory party campaigning for withdrawal. Cameron will run in national elections in 2015 on a Conservative platform that includes a referendum on pulling out of the 28-nation EU, though he says he personally favors remaining in the bloc with a renegotiation of powers. The survey published today of 1,024 business leaders was conducted online from Sept. 2 to Sept. 12. The poll found that businesses want to see nine key areas of company regulation renegotiated, including limits on working hours, taxation, data protection and environmental and health and safety rules. Even so, 49 percent of respondents would vote to stay in the EU if there was a referendum tomorrow, with 39 percent preferring to leave. Thirty-seven percent said the benefits of membership outweigh the costs. (Bloomberg) Central Banks Make Swaps Permanent as Crisis Backstop

Central banks in advanced economies from the U.S. to Europe and Japan said emergency currency-swap lines established during the global financial crisis will be made permanent, providing safeguards against future turbulence. Temporary, bilateral arrangements between the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Swiss National Bank, and the Bank of Japan will be converted into standing facilities, allowing lenders access to global currencies when needed, according to statements today from the central banks. “It’s a very sensible maneuver,” said Julian Callow, chief international economist at Barclays Plc in London. “Since the financial crisis it’s clear that central banks are coordinating much more closely. This makes permanent something that was born as an emergency reaction to that crisis.” (Bloomberg) Euro-Area Inflation Rate Falls to Four-Year Low

Euro-area inflation cooled to the slowest in almost four years in October, moving further away from the European Central Bank’s goal. The annual rate fell to 0.7 percent, the lowest since November 2009, from 1.1 percent in September, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said in a preliminary estimate today. The median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 42 economists was for the rate to stay at 1.1 percent. Separate data today showed unemployment was at a record 12.2 percent in September. The data mark the ninth straight month that the rate has been less than the ECB’s 2 percent ceiling, and they prompted BNP Paribas SA and JPMorgan Chase & Co. to forecast an interest-rate cut by the ECB in December. The central bank, which will publish new economic projections that month, has said there is a “subdued outlook” for inflation in the 17-nation euro area. (Bloomberg) Jobless Claims in U.S. Drop as California Clears Backlog

Fewer Americans filed applications for unemployment benefits last week as a backlog in California’s reporting cleared. Jobless claims decreased by 10,000 to 340,000 in the week ended Oct. 26 from 350,000 the prior period, the Labor Department reported today in Washington. The median forecast of 49 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a decrease to 338,000. California said no claims last week represented applications from prior weeks, a Labor Department spokesman said as the figures were released to the press. Following swings caused by a change in computer systems in California, claims are settling into a higher range, indicating the 16-day partial federal shutdown this month prompted some non-government employers to dismiss staff. Bigger gains in payrolls are needed to boost wages and revive consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy. (Bloomberg) U.K. Mortgage Approvals Rise to Highest in 5 1/2 Years

U.K. mortgage approvals rose to the highest in 5 1/2 years in September, adding to signs of a strengthening property market that’s being stoked by government incentives. Lenders granted 66,735 mortgages, the most since February 2008, compared with a revised 63,396 the previous month, the Bank of England said in a report in London today. Home-loan rates fell to a record low, and gross mortgage lending was 15.6 billion pounds ($25 billion), the highest since October 2008. (Bloomberg)

See important disclosures at the end of this report 4

Outperform

Current Target Upside/

Rec. Price Price Downside PE (x) Yield (%) Remarks

(Bt) (Bt) (%) 2013F 2013F

BH Buy 87.00 107.00 23.0 26.3 1.9

CPN Buy 48.00 66.00 37.5 17.1 1.3

NOK Buy 24.90 37.60 51.0 11.0 4.5

TOP Buy 63.00 74.90 18.9 10.3 3.9 .

Underperform

Current Target Upside/

Rec. Price Price Downside PE (x) Yield (%) Remarks

(Bt) (Bt) (%) 2013F 2013F

AP Sell 5.45 4.75 -12.8 6.5 3.3

BCH Neutral 6.35 7.00 10.2 20.8 2.5

31 30 29 28 25 31 30 29 28 25

1 KBANK 449.8 252.5 100.0 218.0 163.1 JAS -498.2 -45.6 -33.5 -19.1 1.4 KBANK 2,223.7 BAY -2,061.8 INTUCH 50,135.1 SCC -11,765.0

2 BBL 338.4 108.5 -35.0 145.8 127.4 BAY -379.4 -425.9 -235.5 -35.3 -149.7 DTAC 1,491.5 SCC -1,880.1 BAY 17,843.0 LH -1,976.3

3 PTT 148.9 89.6 -42.3 -7.5 -34.7 SCC -345.7 52.7 -76.6 44.1 0.7 INTUCH 1,428.7 JAS -712.2 ADVANC 17,139.1 SIRI -911.0

4 BTS 117.1 133.1 186.0 32.0 21.5 TMB -233.3 -9.2 35.7 28.8 0.8 PTT 1,321.2 KTB -380.1 PTT 14,522.1 CK -709.1

5 EGCO 72.1 82.6 63.7 84.8 41.3 ADVANC -221.1 126.2 195.8 126.1 -31.6 PTTEP 1,085.2 BGH -306.1 DTAC 13,697.4 DEMCO -642.0

6 PTTEP 71.8 -42.8 42.5 25.3 37.9 BGH -116.6 20.0 8.0 -31.2 6.8 BBL 922.5 SIRI -231.0 PTTEP 12,251.6 UV -413.4

7 THAI 67.8 1.4 -2.8 11.0 -3.0 STEC -78.6 -11.2 -37.0 12.3 25.7 EGCO 870.2 AIT -207.5 PTTGC 11,814.7 NOBLE -331.1

8 SCB 52.1 17.2 14.6 -27.1 56.9 CPF -40.5 21.5 49.9 28.4 79.4 ADVANC 849.6 MINT -156.4 AOT 5,278.2 ASP -306.1

9 BANPU 41.1 24.7 6.1 2.2 1.3 ITD -30.7 3.3 2.1 3.4 -1.0 BANPU 796.1 AP -104.7 STEC 5,063.0 RML -274.5

10 TISCO 30.8 1.4 6.6 5.4 24.5 RATCH -26.9 19.5 7.0 -3.6 7.8 STEC 779.7 SCCC -101.8 CPF 4,794.2 MINT-W4 -238.0

11 KTB 28.5 -71.1 -2.3 -18.3 -43.0 CPALL -22.1 -3.4 39.0 -1.8 71.3 SCB 765.9 AMATA -98.5 CPALL 4,454.2 TRC -215.8

12 AOT 25.8 47.4 -48.3 14.6 37.5 CPN -21.8 0.2 35.6 0.8 -6.3 TOP 710.7 BCH -95.1 TOP 4,448.1 EARTH -211.0

13 PS 18.8 22.6 6.9 12.3 43.1 AP -20.7 3.2 3.6 16.5 -2.8 BTS 673.1 BJC -89.1 CPN 4,316.0 MCOT -201.8

14 GLOW 17.4 24.1 12.1 5.0 -0.1 DTAC -18.6 -130.4 34.1 38.3 4.8 PS 631.2 SPCG -89.0 BIGC 4,195.0 LRH -189.9

15 PTTGC 13.2 36.7 56.6 -72.4 -149.8 LPN -17.5 2.4 41.2 21.3 -2.6 AOT 596.9 TICON -84.8 MAKRO 4,168.4 GUNKUL -187.2

16 DELTA 8.9 21.7 -12.2 -5.2 0.5 ERW -13.5 3.7 2.1 -3.1 -3.6 IVL 426.4 THCOM -84.6 MINT 3,342.4 GLOBAL -171.1

17 ROBINS 8.8 9.0 2.8 0.2 4.3 MINT -11.4 -0.2 -7.7 -27.8 -10.4 DELTA 372.1 MCOT -81.7 THAI 3,322.8 JAS -157.9

18 STPI 7.9 2.7 4.4 0.0 -1.4 TOP -8.9 -1.5 11.9 -9.3 21.1 TCAP 350.4 RATCH -75.9 TCAP 3,171.5 TWFP -148.4

19 TVO 5.6 2.0 0.3 0.0 -0.3 TRUE -6.9 25.3 -143.4 -0.4 1.8 BEC 341.2 THRE -58.7 DELTA 3,170.2 SINGER -142.3

20 TCAP 4.8 37.1 16.3 16.8 -2.7 IRPC -6.5 5.5 -55.9 10.7 7.5 CPF 315.6 ERW -47.3 EGCO 3,102.2 IRPC -141.5

% % of % of

Turn. paidup paidup

1 TMB 20.61 1 TISCO-P 66.16 65.86

2 JAS 3.62 2 BBL 30.36 29.99

3 N-PARK 5.72 3 KBANK 27.48 28.50

4 BTS 21.24 4 INTUCH 23.61 5.41

5 BAY 48.34 5 SPALI 21.84 17.94

6 ITD 8.49 6 E-W1 21.62 22.27

7 IRPC 20.62 7 GOLD-W1 20.03 14.87

8 GSTEL 8.18 8 THRE 17.69 15.50

9 GJS 9.31 9 LH 17.63 21.18

10 KTB 10.30 10 LPN 17.03 21.73

11 KBANK 46.78 11 DTAC 16.13 13.33

12 IEC 1.51 12 TWFP 15.57 24.77

13 ERW 17.10 13 TCAP 15.34 12.60

14 LH 37.61 14 THIP 14.50 12.64

15 TRT-W2 21.57 15 AP 14.18 12.92

16 TRUE 1.58 16 EGCO 13.76 10.17

17 AP 14.91 17 STEC 13.72 7.26

18 NMG-W3 6.12 18 LALIN 13.71 13.53

19 CPF 17.12 19 BAY 13.41 13.89

20 VGI 16.69 20 TRT-W2 13.01 3.16

Source : SET.OR.TH

-7,507,500

-2,870,400

2,547,700

2,573,100

3,341,199 5,888,899

195,300

7,507,500-

618,500 4,452,700

6,378,500

5,108,000

3,286,900 3,091,600

5,892,8003,319,700

2,237,600 7,345,600

5,765,709 4,390,800 10,156,509 1,374,909

5,375,276 2,976,700 8,351,976

2,859,920,138 -746,600

2,398,576

7,507,500

196,040,441 161,065,653 1,277,816,397

8,000,000 1,160,000 1,011,300

3,450,500

86,117,327

405,659,128 367,964,647

72,461,167 -793,499

8,831,993 51,313,778

5,071,200 -3,834,200

113,087,600 111,592,900

814,802,659

6,676,202 -4,121,600

-1,666,8953,027,700 4,388,505

4,326,400

4,067,600 617,100

102,400 4,224,000

1,360,805

4,684,700

6,074,143,747

825,000,000

526,465,000

209,273,999

843,803,210

53,541,225

1,525,106,540

315,525,949 2,367,811,000 381,940,522

14,804,860 2,354,634 95,060,550

10,025,921,523

1,475,698,768

1,767,832,442 2,123,251,472

251,244,440 320,609,239

370,342,718

3,512,494,860

74,187,298 74,970,598

621,436,981 544,461,149

75,028,228 77,281,246

11,200,000

250,000 12,000,000

4,665,500 10,112,300

15,162,500 -9,924,900

12,250,000 -11,750,000

14,777,800 -5,446,800 347,000,000

2,618,800 12,543,700

11,200,000 -11,200,000

6,290,405 8,101,731 14,392,136 -1,811,326

-

3,206,420,305

53,567,100

1,716,553,249

2,393,260,193

757,083,088

307,949,569 374,896,850

13,358,200 173,363,101 15,088,200 1,730,000 16,818,200

572,486,791 -58,755,600

657,631,091 682,155,834

579,468,055 69,316,250 79,876,900

54,627,100 1,060,000 55,687,100

NetBuy Sell Total

1,908,842,894

5,724,400 92,006,900 22,400 22,300 97,731,300 -86,282,500

10,560,650

33,858

Net Buy Net Sell Net Buy Net Sell

2 Jan- 31 Oct 13Oct13

(Last)

NVDR Shrs. Paid up CapitalNVDR Shrs.

31-Oct-13 2-Jan-13

Most Active Values (Btmn)

1 November 2013

Oct 13 Oct13

Total Volume Shares

NVDR Trading Data by Stock (Volume) NVDR Shares to Total Paid-up Shares(%)

NET BUY NET SELL Month to Date Year to Date

THAI NVDR : Top Ranking

See important disclosures at the end of this report Powered by EFATM

Platform 1

Results Review, 1 November 2013

SVI PCL (SVI TB) Buy (Maintained) Technology - Technology Target Price: THB5.00

Market Cap: USD267m Price: THB3.66

Solid Core Operating Results

Macro

3.00

Risks

2.00

Growth

3.00

Value

3.00

81

85

88

92

95

99

102

106

109

113

116

2.7

2.9

3.1

3.3

3.5

3.7

3.9

4.1

4.3

4.5

4.7

SVI PCL (SVI TB)Price Close Relative to Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (RHS)

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Oct-

12

Jan-1

3

Ma

r-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Jul-1

3

Sep-1

3

Vol m

Source: Bloomberg

Avg Turnover (THB/USD) 12.6m/0.40m

Cons. Upside (%) 7.1

Upside (%) 36.6

52-wk Price low/high (THB) 2.94 - 4.55

Free float (%) 44

Shareholders (%)

MFG Solution 28.5

Pongsak Lothongkam 24.9

Thai NVDR 3.7

Shariah compliant

Sittichai Duangrattanachaya

+66 2862 9999 ext 2028 License No.30565 sittichai.du@th.oskgroup.com

Forecasts and Valuations Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F

Total turnover (THBm) 8,079 8,445 7,704 7,943 10,106

Reported net profit (THBm) 735 (1,275) 1,246 1,589 1,692

Recurring net profit (THBm) 751 823 555 442 737

Recurring net profit growth (%) 30.3 9.6 (32.5) (20.3) 66.6

Core EPS (THB) 0.45 0.45 0.29 0.21 0.33

DPS (THB) 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.18 0.19

Dividend Yield (%) 5.5 0.0 0.0 4.8 5.1

Core P/E (x) 8.1 8.2 12.7 17.2 11.1

Return on average equity (%) 30.6 (62.1) 65.5 50.7 38.8

P/B (x) 2.24 5.58 2.78 2.18 1.64

P/CF (x) 17.5 7.3 42.5 10.6 9.7

EV/EBITDA (x) 7.5 6.4 12.1 12.2 7.7

Net debt to equity (%) net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash

Our vs consensus EPS (%) 0.0 0.0

Source: Company data, RHB estimates

SVI's 3Q13 earnings plunged 64% y-o-y to THB206m as it received an insurance payment that was THB364m lower y-o-y. Operating profit and EBITDA surged 55% and 39% y-o-y respectively due to margin expansion and changes in product mix. While SVI’s core operation did better than it did in 2Q13, we see continuing improvement in 4Q13 and FY14. Maintain BUY, with our THB5.00 TP offering a 37% upside and 4.8% dividend yield.

Normalised earnings better than expected. SVI’s 3Q13 net profit rose

9% q-o-q but plunged 64% y-o-y to THB206m as it received a partial insurance settlement of THB56m (vs THB423m in 3QFY12). However, normalised net profit rose 13% q-o-q and 81% y-o-y to THB154m, which is 6% higher than our estimate. The strong growth in its core operating results was driven by: i) steady sales growth, ii) margin expansion, and iii) lower financial costs (-13% q-o-q, 58% y-o-y).

Core operation shows strength. Sales rose 13% y-o-y but dipped 1%

q-o-q to THB2,128m (USD68m), in line with our estimate. Its sales growth reflects the fact that it has garnered new clients and introduced new products. SVI’s gross profit margin of 11% is 300bps higher than that in 3Q12 due to superior cost management and changes in its product mix, while selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses stood at 4.3% of sales (vs 4.8% in 2Q13, 3.7% in 3Q12). Meanwhile, operating profit surged 55% y-o-y and 36% q-o-q to THB142m.

Even better showing in 4Q13 and FY14. We expect the company to

book sales of USD73m (+7% q-o-q, +17% y-o-y) in 4Q13 on a target gross margin of 11% and a rise in normalised net profit to THB165m (+56% y-o-y, +7% q-o-q). We believe FY14 sales will jump 28% y-o-y on a target operating margin of 6.6% (vs 5.3% in FY13F). As a result, normalised earnings are expected to surge 46% y-o-y to THB867m.

Maintain BUY. We rate SVI as a BUY, with a THB5.0 TP, premised on a

13.0x FY14F P/E, at 2 SD above the stock’s 3-year P/E mean, to reflect its robust outlook. The current share price offers a 37% potential upside and 4.8% dividend yield while its current valuation - at a 10.2x FY13F P/E and 9.5x FY14 P/E - is attractive.

SVI PCL (SVI TB)

1 November 2013

See important disclosures at the end of this report 2

Improving Core Operations

Figure 1: 3QFY13 results review

3QFY13 %Chg %Chg YTD %Chg (THBm) q-o-q y-o-y (THBm) y-o-y

Sales 2,128 13% -1% 5,613 -3%

Gross profit 234 20% 37% 523 -6%

EBIT 142 36% 55% 266 -16%

EBITDA 190 26% 39% 406 -6%

Net income 206 9% -64% 1,057 3%

Normalised profit 154 13% 81% 428 38% ppt chg ppt chg

Gross margin (%) 11.0% 0.6% 3.0% 9.3% -0.3%

EBIT margin (%) 6.7% 1.1% 2.4% 4.7% -0.7%

EBITDA margin (%) 8.9% 0.9% 2.6% 7.2% -0.2%

SGA % of sales 4.3% -0.5% 0.6% 4.6% 0.4%

Net margin (%) 9.7% -0.4% -16.8% 18.8% 1.2%

Source: Company data, RHB estimates

Figure 2: Quarterly operating results Figure 3: Quarterly margin trends

Source: SVI, RHB-OSK Source: RHB estimates

Figure 4: Forward P/E Figure 5: Historical P/BV

Source: Bloomberg, RHB estimates Source: Bloomberg, RHB estimates

SVI PCL (SVI TB)

1 November 2013

See important disclosures at the end of this report 3

Figure 6: Peer comparison

P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA Dividend Yield (%) ROE (%) FY13 FY14 FY13 FY14 FY13 FY14 FY13 FY14 FY13 FY14

SVI 11.0 10.0 2.1 1.8 10.1 7.6 3.3 4.4 31.3 18.3

Average Electronics sector 26.5 9.4 1.7 1.5 15.8 6.5 4.3 5.2 14.9 15.6

Global EMS Peers

Venture Corporation 14.9 13.3 1.2 1.2 9.7 8.7 6.5 6.7 8.0 8.9 Flextronics 9.5 9.8 2.2 2.1 5.2 5.4 0.0 0.0 23.2 19.7 Foxconn Technology Group 12.1 11.7 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.3 1.5 n.a. n.a. Hon Hai Precision Industry 10.3 9.3 1.4 1.2 6.2 5.2 2.0 2.1 n.a. n.a. Celestica 13.4 11.4 1.4 1.3 6.2 5.4 0.0 0.0 10.4 11.5 Jabil Circuit 9.3 8.8 1.9 1.7 4.7 4.4 1.5 1.5 19.8 18.2 Sanmina 10.6 9.1 1.2 1.1 5.1 4.9 0.0 0.0 8.7 9.8 Benchmark Electronics 19.0 15.8 1.1 1.0 6.6 5.9 0.0 0.0 6.0 6.4 Plexus 16.7 14.9 1.9 1.7 8.4 7.7 0.0 0.0 11.7 11.8

Average EMS peers 12.9 11.6 1.5 1.4 6.5 6.0 1.3 1.3 12.5 12.3

Premium/(discount) to Thai peers -58.5 6.5 24.9 19.9 -36.1 15.8 -1.0 -0.8 16.4 2.7 Premium/(discount) to EMS peers -14.4 -13.3 34.9 29.0 55.2 27.0 2.1 3.1 18.8 6.0

Source: RHB estimates

SVI PCL (SVI TB)

1 November 2013

See important disclosures at the end of this report 4

Financial Exhibits

Profit & Loss (THBm) Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F

Total turnover 8,079 8,445 7,704 7,943 10,106

Cost of sales (7,188) (7,363) (6,985) (7,175) (8,960)

Gross profit 891 1,083 720 768 1,146

Gen & admin expenses (132) (187) (192) (259) (323)

Selling expenses (98) (117) (119) (115) (152)

Other operating costs (55) - - (18) (6)

Operating profit 605 778 409 376 665

Operating EBITDA 760 978 573 558 855

Depreciation of fixed assets (155) (199) (164) (182) (190)

Operating EBIT 605 778 409 376 665

Other recurring income 91 50 51 65 84

Interest expense (22) (23) (38) (23) (14)

Exchange gains 84 11 135 28 10

Exceptional income - net (16) (2,080) (38) 134 -

Other non-recurring income - - 730 1,022 964

Pre-tax profit 744 (1,264) 1,248 1,602 1,709

Taxation (9) (11) (2) (13) (17)

Profit after tax & minorities 735 (1,275) 1,246 1,589 1,692

Reported net profit 735 (1,275) 1,246 1,589 1,692

Recurring net profit 751 823 555 442 737

Source: Company data, RHB estimates

Cash flow (THBm) Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F

Operating profit 605 778 409 376 665

Depreciation & amortisation 155 199 164 182 190

Change in working capital (526) 119 (1,258) (423) (387)

Other operating cash flow 103 (179) 830 591 388

Operating cash flow 337 917 145 726 856

Interest received (4) (10) (10) - -

Interest paid 18 19 34 - -

Tax paid (5) (10) (3) (13) (17)

Cash flow from operations 347 917 166 713 839

Capex (271) (526) (600) (313) (320)

Other new investments 200 (360) 500 - -

Other investing cash flow (399) 123 109 (151) 3

Cash flow from investing activities (469) (763) 9 (465) (318)

Dividends paid (159) (204) - (397) (423)

Proceeds from issue of shares 292 24 21 - -

Increase in debt 366 (275) (3) (82) (443)

Other financing cash flow - - - (0) -

Cash flow from financing activities 499 (455) 18 (479) (866)

Cash at beginning of period 300 676 374 567 1,018

Total cash generated 376 (301) 193 (230) (344)

Implied cash at end of period 676 375 568 337 673

Source: Company data, RHB estimates

SVI PCL (SVI TB)

1 November 2013

See important disclosures at the end of this report 5

Financial Exhibits

Balance Sheet (THBm) Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F

Total cash and equivalents 1,216 1,169 777 1,375 1,706

Inventories 1,480 1,117 1,216 1,259 1,573

Accounts receivable 1,745 587 1,511 1,561 1,986

Other current assets 71 41 30 122 155

Total current assets 4,512 2,915 3,535 4,316 5,420

Tangible fixed assets 1,012 1,023 1,387 1,466 1,567

Intangible assets 12 10 8 11 17

Total other assets 77 6 2 12 15

Total non-current assets 1,101 1,039 1,396 1,489 1,599

Total assets 5,613 3,954 4,932 5,805 7,019

Short-term debt 348 284 545 464 123

Accounts payable 1,629 1,881 1,618 1,377 1,763

Other current liabilities 265 160 93 93 93

Total current liabilities 2,242 2,325 2,255 1,935 1,979

Total long-term debt 525 346 105 104 2

Other liabilities - 33 54 57 60

Total non-current liabilities 525 379 159 161 62

Total liabilities 2,767 2,704 2,415 2,096 2,041

Share capital 1,939 1,950 1,961 1,961 1,961

Retained earnings reserve 896 (696) 550 1,742 3,011

Other reserves 4 16 26 26 26

Shareholders' equity 2,839 1,270 2,538 3,730 4,999

Other equity 7 (20) (21) (21) (21)

Total equity 2,846 1,250 2,517 3,709 4,978

Total liabilities & equity 5,613 3,954 4,932 5,805 7,019

Source: Company data, RHB estimates

Key Ratios (THB) Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F

Revenue growth (%) 24.6 4.5 (8.8) 3.1 27.2

Operating profit growth (%) 13.8 28.5 (47.5) (8.0) 76.8

Net profit growth (%) 26.3 (273.4) 0.0 27.5 6.4

EPS growth (%) 20.1 (256.2) 0.0 18.7 (1.2)

Bv per share growth (%) 30.5 (59.9) 101.0 27.4 32.6

Operating margin (%) 7.5 9.2 5.3 4.7 6.6

Net profit margin (%) 9.1 (15.1) 16.2 20.0 16.7

Return on average assets (%) 15.3 (26.7) 28.1 29.6 26.4

Return on average equity (%) 30.6 (62.1) 65.5 50.7 38.8

Net debt to equity (%) (12.0) (43.2) (5.1) (21.7) (31.8)

DPS 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.18 0.19

Recurrent cash flow per share 0.21 0.50 0.09 0.34 0.38

Source: Company data, RHB estimates

SVI PCL (SVI TB)

1 November 2013

See important disclosures at the end of this report 6

SWOT Analysis

Diversified customer base

Flexible manufacturing capability

Geographically-dispersed production bases in Thailand and China. SVI has international purchasing offices in Asia and Europe

Weaker-than-expected global economic growth

Increasing wage levels in Thailand and China

Risks of natural disasters

Absolute control by management

Economic recovery in the US and EU

Restocking cycle for technology companies

Potential M&As in Scandinavia

Traditional electronics and healthcare products are expected post the fastest growth

Fluctuations in the exchange rate may affect operations

Shortage of skilled labour

Low research and development expenses

-600%

-333%

-67%

200%

467%

733%

1,000%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jan

-10

Jan

-11

Jan

-12

Jan

-13

Jan

-14

P/E (x) vs EPS growth

P/E (x) (lhs) EPS growth (rhs)

-80%

-53%

-27%

0%

27%

53%

80%

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Jan

-10

Jan

-11

Jan

-12

Jan

-13

Jan

-14

P/BV (x) vs ROAE

P/B (x) (lhs) Return on average equity (rhs)

Source: Company data, RHB estimates Source: Company data, RHB estimates

Company Profile SVI has been providing electronics manufacturing services to original equipment manufacturers (OEM) and design houses, focusing on box-build and system-build product manufacturing. It is also a total solutions provider of turnkey box-build assemblies. The majority of SVI's customers are global players in Europe and the US.

SVI PCL (SVI TB)

1 November 2013

See important disclosures at the end of this report 7

Recommendation Chart

0.3

0.8

1.3

1.8

2.3

2.8

3.3

3.8

4.3

4.8

Oct-08 Feb-10 May-11 Aug-12

Price Close

NR

Recommendations & Target Price

Buy Neutral Sell Trading Buy Take Profit Not Rated

Source: RHB estimates, Bloomberg

Date Recommendation Target Price Price

2013-09-25 Buy 5.00 3.50

Source : RHB estimates, Bloomberg

8

RHB Guide to Investment Ratings Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage Disclosure & Disclaimer All research is based on material compiled from data considered to be reliable at the time of writing, but RHB does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. No part of this report is to be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to transact any securities or financial instruments whether referred to herein or otherwise. This report is general in nature and has been prepared for information purposes only. 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DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd may have received compensation from the company covered in this report for its corporate finance or its dealing activities; this report is therefore classified as a non-independent report. As of 30 October 2013, DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd and its subsidiaries, including DMG & Partners Research Pte Ltd, do not have proprietary positions in the securities covered in this report, except for: a) - As of 30 October 2013, none of the analysts who covered the securities in this report has an interest in such securities, except for: a) SVI PCL Special Distribution by RHB Where the research report is produced by an RHB entity (excluding DMG & Partners Research Pte Ltd) and distributed in Singapore, it is only distributed to "Institutional Investors", "Expert Investors" or "Accredited Investors" as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, CAP. 289 of Singapore. If you are not an "Institutional Investor", "Expert Investor" or "Accredited Investor", this research report is not intended for you and you should disregard this research report in its entirety. In respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with this research report, you are to contact our Singapore Office, DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd. Hong Kong This report is published and distributed in Hong Kong by RHB OSK Securities Hong Kong Limited (“RHBSHK”) (formerly known as OSK Securities Hong Kong Limited), a subsidiary of OSK Investment Bank Berhad, Malaysia which have since merged into RHB Investment Bank Berhad (the merged entity is referred to as “RHBIB”), which in turn is a wholly-owned subsidiary of RHB Capital Berhad. RHBSHK, RHBIB and/or other affiliates may beneficially own a total of 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of the subject company. RHBSHK, RHBIB and/or other affiliates may, within the past 12 months, have received compensation and/or within the next 3 months seek to obtain compensation for investment banking services from the subject company.

9

Risk Disclosure Statements The prices of securities fluctuate, sometimes dramatically. The price of a security may move up or down, and may become valueless. It is as likely that losses will be incurred rather than profit made as a result of buying and selling securities. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. RHBSHK does not maintain a predetermined schedule for publication of research and will not necessarily update this report Indonesia This report is published and distributed in Indonesia by PT RHB OSK Securities Indonesia (formerly known as PT OSK Nusadana Securities Indonesia), a subsidiary of OSK Investment Bank Berhad, Malaysia, which have since merged into RHB Investment Bank Berhad, which in turn is a wholly-owned subsidiary of RHB Capital Berhad. Thailand This report is published and distributed in Thailand by RHB OSK Securities (Thailand) PCL (formerly known as OSK Securities (Thailand) PCL), a subsidiary of OSK Investment Bank Berhad, Malaysia, which have since merged into RHB Investment Bank Berhad, which in turn is a wholly-owned subsidiary of RHB Capital Berhad. Other Jurisdictions In any other jurisdictions, this report is intended to be distributed to qualified, accredited and professional investors, in compliance with the law and regulations of the jurisdictions. DMG & Partners Research Guide to Investment Ratings Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage DISCLAIMERS This research is issued by DMG & Partners Research Pte Ltd and it is for general distribution only. It does not have any regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any specific recipient of this research report. You should independently evaluate particular investments and consult an independent financial adviser before making any investments or entering into any transaction in relation to any securities or investment instruments mentioned in this report. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources we believed to be reliable but we do not make any representation or warranty nor accept any responsibility or liability as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions and views expressed in this report are subject to change without notice. This report does not constitute or form part of any offer or solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities. DMG & Partners Research Pte Ltd is a wholly-owned subsidiary of DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd, a joint venture between OSK Investment Bank Berhad, Malaysia which have since merged into RHB Investment Bank Berhad (the merged entity is referred to as “RHBIB” which in turn is a wholly-owned subsidiary of RHB Capital Berhad) and Deutsche Asia Pacific Holdings Pte Ltd (a subsidiary of Deutsche Bank Group). DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd is a Member of the Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited. DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd and their associates, directors, and/or employees may have positions in, and may effect transactions in the securities covered in the report, and may also perform or seek to perform broking and other corporate finance related services for the corporations whose securities are covered in the report. This report is therefore classified as a non-independent report. As of 30 October 2013, DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd and its subsidiaries, including DMG & Partners Research Pte Ltd, do not have proprietary positions in the subject companies, except for: a) - As of 30 October 2013, none of the analysts who covered the stock in this report has an interest in the subject companies covered in this report, except for: a) SVI PCL DMG & Partners Research Pte. Ltd. (Reg. No. 200808705N)

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Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) – Corporate Governance Report Rating 2012

ADVANC BCP DRT IRPC NOBLE QH SC SYMC TOP AOT BECL EASTW KBANK PHOL RATCH SCB THAI TSTE ASIMAR BKI EGCO KK PS ROBINS SCC TIP TTA BAFS BMCL ERW KTB PSL RS SE-ED TIPCO

BANPU BTS GRAMMY LPN PTT SAMART SIM TISCO BAY CPN HEMRAJ MCOT PTTEP SAMTEL SIS TKT BBL CSL ICC NKI PTTGC SAT SNC TMB

2S BROOK DTAC HMPRO MACO OFM S&J SSSC THRE TSC ACAP BWG DTC HTC MAKRO OGC S&P STANLY TIC TSTH AF CENTEL ECL IFEC MBK OSIHI SABINA STEC TICON TTW AIT CFRESH EE INTUCH MBKET PAP SAMCO SUC TIW TUF AKR CGS EIC ITD MFC PDI SCCC SUSCO TK TVO AMATA CHOW ESSO IVL MFEC PE SCG SVI TLUXE UAC AP CIMBT FE JAS MINT PG SCSMG SYNTEC TMT UMI ASK CK FORTH KCE MODERN PHATRA*** SFP TASCO TNITY UP ASP CM GBX KGI MTI PJW SITHAI TCAP TNL UPOIC AYUD CPALL GC KSL NBC PM SMT TCP TOG UV BEC CPF GFPT L&E NCH PR SPALI TFD TPC VIBHA BFIT CSC GL LANNA NINE PRANDA SPCG TFI TRC VNT BH DCC GLOW LH NMG PRG SPI THANA TRT WACOAL BIGC DELTA GUNKUL LRH NSI PT SPPT THCOM TRU YUASA BJC DEMCO HANA LST OCC PYLON SSF THIP TRUE ZMICO *** PHATRA was voluntarily delisted from the Stock Exchange of Thailand effectively on September 25, 2012.

AEONTS BGT CMO GENCO JTS LHBANK NC PTL SGP SWC TPAC UT AFC BLA CNS GFM JUBILE LHK NNCL Q-CON SIAM SYNEX TPCORP VARO AGE BNC CNT GLOBAL JUTHA LIVE NTV QLT SIMAT TBSP TPIPL WAVE AH BOL CPL GOLD KASET LOXLEY OSK QTC SINGER TCB TPP WG AHC BROCK CRANE HFT KBS MAJOR PAE RASA SIRI TEAM TR WIN AI BSBM CSP HTECH KC MATCH PATO RCL SKR TF TTCL WORK AJ BTNC CSR HYDRO KDH MATI PB RICH SMIT TGCI TWFP

ALUCON BUI CTW IFS KIAT MBAX PICO ROJNA SMK THANI TYCN AMANAH CCET DRACO IHL KKC M-CHAI PL RPC SOLAR TKS UBIS APCO CEN EASON ILINK KTC MDX POST SAM SPC TMD UEC APCS CHUO EMC INET KWC MJD PPM SCBLIF SPG TMI UIC APRINT CI EPCO IRC KWH MK PREB SCP SSC TNH UMS ARIP CIG FNS IRCP KYE MOONG PRECHA SEAFCO SST TNPC UOBKH AS CIMBI*** FOCUS IT LALIN MPIC PRIN SENA STA TOPP UPF ASIA CITY FSS JMART LEE MSC PSAAP SF SVOA TPA US

*** CIMBI was voluntarily delisted from the Stock Exchange of Thailand effectively on September 25, 2012.

IOD (IOD Disclaimer)

การเปิดเผลผลการส ารวจของสมาคมส่งเสริมสถาบันกรรมการบรษิัทไทย (IOD) ในเรื่องการก ากับดูแลกิจการ (Corporate Governance) นี้เป็นการด าเนินการตามนโยบายของส านักงานคณะกรรมการก ากับหลักทรัพย์และตลาดหลักทรัพย์ โดยการส ารวจของ IOD เป็นการส ารวจและประเมินจากข้อมูลของบรษัทจดทะเบียนในตลาดหลักทรัพย์แห่งประเทศไทยและตลาดหลกัทรัพย์เอ็มเอไอ ที่มีการเปิดเผยต่อสาธารณะและเป็นข้อมูลที่ผูล้งทุนทั่วไปสามารถเข้าถงึได้ ดังนั้นผลส ารวจดังกล่าวจึงเป็นการน าเสนอในมุมมองของบุคคลภายนอกโดยไม่ได้เป็นการประเมินการปฏิบัติและมิได้มีการใช้ข้อมูลภายในในการประเมิน

อนึ่ง ผลการส ารวจดังกล่าว เป็นผลการส ารวจ ณ วนัที่ปรากฎในรายงานการก ากับดแูละกิจการบริษัทจดทะเบียนไทยเท่านั้น ดังนั้นผลการส ารวจจึงอาจเปลี่ยนแปลงได้ภายหลังวันดังกล่าว ทัง้นี้บริษัทหลักทรัพย์ อาร์เอสบี โอเอส เค จ ากัด (มหาชน) มิได้ยืนยันหรือรับรองถึงความถูกต้องของผลการส ารวจดงักล่าวแต่อย่างใด