Mr. Bob Dumont

Chief Scientist, OFCM

July 18, 2007

Working Group for Hurricane and Winter Storms Operations

and Research Update for CESORN

Working Group for Hurricane and Winter Storms Operations

and Research Update for CESORN

Topic OverviewTopic Overview

• 61st Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference

• Working Group for Hurricane and Winter Storms Operations and Research

• Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer

• 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference

61st IHC61st IHC

• Held March 5-9, 2007, in New Orleans, LA• Theme: The Nation’s Hurricane Program: An

Interagency Success Story• 190+ in attendance for the 8th consecutive year• Notable participants:

– Colonel Terry Ebbert, USMC (Ret.), Director of Homeland Security for the City of New Orleans

– Major General Hunt Downer, Assistant Adjustant General, Louisiana National Guard

– VADM Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr., USN (Ret.), Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere/ NOAA Administrator

61st IHC Objectives61st IHC Objectives

• Review the Nation’s tropical cyclone forecast and warning program form end-to-end, and update the National Hurricane Operations Plan for 2007

• Evaluate the 2006 Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT) results and successfully transition research results into operations, as well as potential candidates for 2007 and beyond

• Address/build upon the actions and results from the 60th IHC

– Roll out the Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones: The Way Ahead and begin addressing recommendations

– Examine how hazard risk reduction improvements can be made through stronger partnerships and alliances

61st IHC Action Items61st IHC Action Items

• Publish the 2007 National Hurricane Operations Plan by May 15, 2007

• Establish the Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research to implement the recommendations of the new strategic research plan for tropical cyclones

• Implement the Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones: The Way Ahead– Develop a succinct 10-year implementation plan to address

the strategic plan’s research priorities and update annually

– Establish a Joint Action Group to develop a strategic/ implementation plan for improved tropical cyclone reconnaissance and surveillance systems

61st IHC Action Items61st IHC Action Items

• Work with diverse user groups to develop and test message format modifications (60th IHC action)– Improved formats and products based on the latest

communications technologies should be investigated

– Two types of messages should be considered: technical and actionable

– Empirical research should be encouraged and supported to develop and test modifications to current terminology used to define levels of hurricane threat (e.g., watch, warning, CAT 1-5, etc.)

– Current status: Work ongoing

61st IHC Action Items61st IHC Action Items

• The OFCM will coordinate bringing together the appropriate federal agencies to begin the process of reviewing and improving the National hurricane warning “system” (60th IHC action)– All elements of the full end-to-end “system” (e.g.,

protocols, responsibilities, NGOs, communications, etc.)

– Current status: Completed exploratory review at two locations—Charleston County, SC, and Mobile County, AL. Final report is currently being drafted. The results of the 61st IHC workshop, Hazard Risk Reduction through Stronger Partnerships and Alliances, provided additional insights into ongoing efforts related to this action item

 

WG/HSWORWG/HSWOR

• Chaired by:– Dr. Ed Rappaport, Acting Director of the

Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center

• Meets in conjunction with the IHC to work the operational action items that are brought before the IHC by the federal agencies

• Meeting is open to all federal employees

WG/HWSOR Action Item ReviewWG/HWSOR Action Item Review

• 61st IHC– 15 Action Items

• 10—Closed incorporation into the NHOP• 1—Withdrawn

– Message Standardization for Fix Messages

• 1—Informational– Content Change Request for Tropical Cyclone ICAO

Message

WG/HWSOR Action Item ReviewWG/HWSOR Action Item Review

• 61st IHC– Key Actions:

• Satellite Ocean Surface Vector Winds Operational Impacts and Requirements

– Rick Knabb (TPC/NHC) and LCDR Dave Roberts (Navy) will draft requirements letter for endorsement by the IHC

• Status of HDOBS Recon Messages– Will be implemented by NOAA AOC and 53 WRS for the

2007 hurricane season (60th IHC action item)

• Retirement of Numerous East Pacific Hurricane Names requested by the Hawaii State Civil Defense

– Forward to WMO RA-IV for approval

WG/HWSOR Action Item ReviewWG/HWSOR Action Item Review

• 61st IHC– Key Actions:

• Reporting Outbound Wind Maxima in Vortex Messages – procedure updated in the 2007 NHOP

• Adopted procedure to make dropwindsonde releases at 850 MB and above

• Operational Tropical Cyclone Forecast and Advisory Products in GIS-Ready Format in Real Time from TPC/NHC (USDA)

– Three of the 6 products requested will be in development for the 2007 hurricane season and made operational in 2008

– The other three products are not available from TPC/NHC; OFCM/NWS will advise USDA on how to obtain the products

WG/HWSOR Action Item ReviewWG/HWSOR Action Item Review

• 61st IHC– Key Actions:

• AFWA cessation of tropical cyclone satellite imagery surveillance and analysis support to be reflected in the NHOP

• Clarification of CARCAH’s Continuity of Operations Plan in the NHOP

– 53 WRS will draft addendum to NHOP Chapter 5, “Aircraft Reconnaissance,” to ensure the continued transmission of reconnaissance data in backup situations

• Elimination of the Supplemental Vortex Message– Forward to WMO RA-IV for acceptance/also provide

recommended alternatives for obtaining data

Stepped Frequency Microwave RadiometerStepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer

SFMR HistorySFMR History

• SFMR successfully deployed on NOAA P-3• Supplemental plus up of $10M added for WC-130 SFMR

procurement after 2004 Hurricane Season• No action taken by AF SPO until late 2005• Design and implementation begun by Lockheed Martin

early 2006• Critical design review completed in May 06• First test article installed in Fall 06• Calibration and test flight competed in Fall 06• Operational installation began March 07

SFMR RoadmapSFMR Roadmap

• First operational aircraft was delivered in May 07—was flown in late May

• One aircraft/month following

• To date, two aircraft are modified and calibrated and a third is back from modification, but requires calibration

• Four-five available during Aug-Oct 07

• All 10 mods complete March 08

• Only 8-9 aircraft available at any given time for 2007 season

62nd IHC62nd IHC

• Planned for Charleston, SC

• Dates:– March 3-7, 2008– March 10-14, 2008

• Theme: (?)– Possibly driven by the 2007 hurricane season

activity and the issues that arise

Bottom LineBottom Line

Will need CESORN’s support

as we begin to build the

Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research and develop the 10-year

implementation strategy