münchen, 19 november 2011 schule 2.0 münchen, 19 november 2011 prof. andreas schleicher advisory...

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Schule 2.0

München, 19 November 2011Prof. Andreas Schleicher

Advisory of the OECD Secretary-General on Education PolicyOECD Directorate for Education

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Immer mehr Menschen erreichen immer höhere Bildungsziele

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.0AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaChileCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIcelandIrelandIsraelItalyJapanKoreaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSloveniaSpainSwedenSwitzerlandTurkeyUnited KingdomUnited States

A world of change – higher education

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700.0

5,000.0

10,000.0

15,000.0

20,000.0

25,000.0

30,000.0

1995

Expe

ndit

ure

per

stud

ent

at t

ertia

ry le

vel (

USD

)

Tertiary-type A graduation rate

Graduate supply

Cost

per

stu

dent

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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700.0

5,000.0

10,000.0

15,000.0

20,000.0

25,000.0

30,000.0

1995

Expe

ndit

ure

per

stud

ent

at t

ertia

ry le

vel (

USD

)


Graduate supply

Cost

per

stu

dent

United States

Finland

Deutschland

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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700.0

5,000.0

10,000.0

15,000.0

20,000.0

25,000.0

30,000.0

2000

Expe

ndit

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per

stud

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at t

ertia

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vel (

USD

)


United Kingdom

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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700.0

5,000.0

10,000.0

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20,000.0

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30,000.0

2001

Expe

ndit

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per

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ent

at t

ertia

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vel (

USD

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Australia

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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700.0

5,000.0

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2002

Expe

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ertia

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vel (

USD

)


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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700.0

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2003

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)


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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700.0

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10,000.0

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2004

Expe

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at t

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vel (

USD

)


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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700.0

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10,000.0

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2005

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at t

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vel (

USD

)


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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700.0

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2006

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)


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2007 Ex

pend

itur

e pe

r st

uden

t at

ter

tiary

leve

l (U

SD)


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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700.0

5,000.0

10,000.0

15,000.0

20,000.0

25,000.0

30,000.0

2008 Ex

pend

itur

e pe

r st

uden

t at

ter

tiary

leve

l (U

SD)


Finland

Deutschland

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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700.0

5,000.0

10,000.0

15,000.0

20,000.0

25,000.0

30,000.0

2008 Ex

pend

itur

e pe

r st

uden

t at

ter

tiary

leve

l (U

SD)


United States

15151515O

EC

D S

kills

Str

ateg

yE

DP

C, 1

5 N

ovem

ber

2011

Tra

nsla

ting

bett

er s

kills

into

be

tter

so

cia

l and

eco

nom

ic o

utc

omes

The composition of the global talent pool has changed…

Countries’ share in the population with tertiary education, for 25-34 and 55-64 year-old age groups, percentage (2009)

55-64-year-old population 25-34-year-old population

About 39 million people who attained tertiary level

About 81 million people who attained tertiary level

albiser_e

EAG 2011: chart A4.2OK

16161616O

EC

D S

kills

Str

ateg

yE

DP

C, 1

5 N

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2011

Tra

nsla

ting

bett

er s

kills

into

be

tter

so

cia

l and

eco

nom

ic o

utc

omes

United States, 35.8

Japan, 12.4

China, 6.9Germany, 6.3

United Kingdom, 5.3

Canada, 4.2

France, 3.5

Brazil, 3.5

Spain, 2.1Italy, 1.9

Mexico, 1.8

Australia, 1.7

Korea, 1.6other, 12.9

55-64-year-old population

United States, 20.5

Japan, 10.9

China, 18.3

Germany, 3.1United Kingdom, 4.4

Canada, 3.1France, 4.1

Brazil, 4.5

Spain, 3.5

Italy, 2.0

Mexico, 3.9

Australia, 1.6

Korea, 5.7

other, 14.5

25-34-year-old population

The composition of the global talent pool has changed…

Countries’ share in the population with tertiary education, for 25-34 and 55-64 year-old age groups, percentage (2009)

albiser_e

EAG 2011: chart A4.2OK

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.0 Nie zuvor haben die, die gut gebildet sind, so gute Lebenschancen gehabt

wie heute

1818C

ounci

l, 1

8 S

ep

tem

ber

20

08

Ed

uca

tion a

t a G

lance

DenmarkSwedenNorway

New ZealandFranceTurkey

GermanyAustralia

SpainAustria

BelgiumFinlandCanada

OECD averageKorea

IrelandHungary

PolandCzech RepublicUnited States

ItalyPortugal

-250,000 -150,000 -50,000 50,000 150,000 250,000 350,000 450,000

7,34218,802

23,30640,036

40,26041,090

48,02448,714

55,69560,51963,414

64,66469,235

82,00785,586

104,410127,691

146,539146,673

169,945173,889

186,307

Direct cost Gross earnings benefits Income tax effect Social contribution effect

Transfers effect Unemployment effect Net present value in USD equivalent

USD equivalentA8.3

Components of the private net present value for a male with higher education

Net present value in

USD equivalent

35K$56K$ 367K$105K$27K$ 26K$ 170K$

1919C

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8 S

ep

tem

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20

08

Ed

uca

tion a

t a G

lance

TurkeyDenmark

SwedenNorway

SpainKorea

CanadaNew Zealand

FranceAustria

AustraliaPortugal

OECD averageFinlandPoland

GermanyItaly

IrelandHungaryBelgium

United StatesCzech Republic

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

10,34614,23617,19717,85119,75221,28023,875

28,19336,73037,586

47,36850,27151,95455,61257,221

63,60463,756

74,21994,80496,186100,119

160,834

Public cost and benefits for a male obtaining post-secondary education

Public benefit

s

Public

costs

Net present value, USD equivalent

(numbers in orange show

negative values)

USD equivalent

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Neue Herausvorderungen

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Stabil DynamischMärkte

National GlobalWettbewerb

Hierarchisch VernetztOrganisationsformen

Massenproduktion Flexible Produktion –embedded services

Produktion

Mechanisierung Digitalisierung, Miniaturisierung

Wachstumsimpulse

„Economies of scale“

Innovation, ZeitnäheWettbewerbsvorteil

Einzelbetrieb „Co-petition” – AllianzenFirmenmodell

Vollbeschäftigung „Employability”Politische Ziele

Klare Identität im berufsspezifischen Kontext

Konvergenz und Transformation

Berufsprofile

Berufsspezifisch Multi-dimensionalKompetenzen

Formale Qualifikation

Lebensbegleitendes Lernen

Bildung

Neue HerausforderungenGestern Heute

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Zusammenhang zwischen Erwachsenenkompetenzen und

individuellem und sozialen Erfolg

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Low skills and social outcomes

Odds are adjusted for age, gender, pand immigration status.

Level 5 Level 4 Level 3 Level 2 Level 11.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6Has fair to poor health

Does not volunteer for charity or non-profit organizations

Poor understanding of po-litical issues facing coun-try

Poor level of general trust

Higher propensity of be-lieving people try to take of advantage of others

Lower propensity to reciprocate

Poor political efficacy

Odds ratios

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Zukunftskompetenzen

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.0Veränderungen in der Nachfrage nach KompetenzenEconomy-wide measures of routine and non-routine task input

(US)

1960 1970 1980 1990 200240

45

50

55

60

65 Routine manual

Nonroutine manual

Routine cognitive

Nonroutine analytic

Nonroutine inter-active

(Levy and Murnane)

Mean t

ask

inp

ut

as

perc

en

tile

s of

the 1

960

task

dis

trib

uti

on

The dilemma of schools:The skills that are easiest to teach and test are also the ones that are easiest to digitise, automate and outsource

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Skills for the 21st century

The great collaborators and orchestrators The more complex the globalised world

becomes, the more individuals and companies need various forms of co-ordination and management

The great synthesisers Conventionally, our approach to problems was

breaking them down into manageable bits and pieces, today we create value by synthesising disparate bits together

The great explainers The more content we can search and access,

the more important the filters and explainers become

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Skills for the 21st century The great versatilists

Specialists generally have deep skills and narrow scope, giving them expertise that is recognised by peers but not valued outside their domain

Generalists have broad scope but shallow skills Versatilists apply depth of skill to a progressively widening

scope of situations and experiences, gaining new competencies, building relationships, and assuming new roles.

They are capable not only of constantly adapting but also of constantly learning and growing

The great personalisers A revival of interpersonal skills, skills that have atrhophied

to some degree because of the industrial age and the Internet

The great localisers Localising the global

2828P

ISA

OE

CD

Pro

gram

me

for

Inte

rnat

iona

l Stu

dent

Ass

essm

ent

Brie

fing

of C

ounc

il

14 N

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ber

2007

HandlungsfelderSome policy levers that emerge from international comparisons

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Some students learn at high levels

All students need to learn at high levels

Student inclusion

Routine cognitive skills, rote learning

Learning to learn, complex ways of

thinking, ways of workingCurriculum, instruction and assessment

Few years more than secondary

High-level professional knowledge workers

Teacher quality

‘Tayloristic’, hierarchical

Flat, collegial

Work organisation

Primarily to authorities

Primarily to peers and stakeholders

Accountability

Schule 2.0

The old bureaucratic system The modern enabling system

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Commitment to universal achievement

Goals, gateways,

instructional systems

Capacity at point of delivery

Incentives and

accountability

Resources where they yield most

A learning system

Coherence

Lessons from PISA on successful

education systems

A commitment to education and the belief that competencies can be learned and therefore all children can achieve

Universal educational standards and personalisation as the approach to heterogeneity in the student body…

…as opposed to a belief that students have different destinations to be met with different expectations, and selection/stratification as the approach to heterogeneity

Clear articulation who is responsible for ensuring student success and to whom

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.0School performance and social background

GermanyStu

dent

perf

orm

ance

AdvantagePISA Index of socio-economic background

Disadvantage

Private school Public school in rural area Public school in urban area

700

-2 -1 0 1 2200

493

Score

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Goals, gateways,



Incentives and

accountability


A learning system

Coherence


education systems

Clear ambitious goals that are shared across the system and aligned with high stakes gateways and instructional systems

Well established delivery chain through which curricular goals translate into instructional systems, instructional practices and student learning (intended, implemented and achieved)

High level of metacognitive content of instruction

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Goals, gateways,



Incentives and

accountability


A learning system

Coherence


education systems

Capacity at the point of delivery Attracting, developing and retaining high

quality teachers and school leaders and a work organisation in which they can use their potential

Instructional leadership and human resource management in schools

Keeping teaching an attractive profession System-wide career development

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education systems


Goals, gateways,



Incentives and

accountability


A learning system

Coherence Incentives, accountability, knowledge

management Aligned incentive structures

For students How gateways affect the strength, direction, clarity and nature

of the incentives operating on students at each stage of their education

Degree to which students have incentives to take tough courses and study hard

Opportunity costs for staying in school and performing well

For teachers Make innovations in pedagogy and/or organisation Improve their own performance

and the performance of their colleagues Pursue professional development opportunities

that lead to stronger pedagogical practices A balance between vertical and lateral accountability Effective instruments to manage and share knowledge

and spread innovation – communication within the system and with stakeholders around it

A capable centre with authority and legitimacy to act

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Systems with more accountability Systems with less

accountability

480

490

500

Schools with less autonomy

Schools with more autonomy

495

School autonomy in re-source allocation

System’s accountability arrangements

PISA score in reading

School autonomy, accountability and student performance

Impact of school autonomy on performance in systems with and without accountability arrangements

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Goals, gateways,



Incentives and

accountability


A learning system

Coherence


education systems Investing resources where they can make

most of a difference Alignment of resources with key challenges

(e.g. attracting the most talented teachers to the most challenging classrooms)

Effective spending choices that prioritise high quality teachers over smaller classes

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Goals, gateways,



Incentives and

accountability


A learning system

Coherence


education systems

A learning system An outward orientation of the system to

keep the system learning, international benchmarks as the ‘eyes’ and ‘ears’ of the system

Recognising challenges and potential future threats to current success, learning from them, designing responses and implementing these

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Goals, gateways,



Incentives and

accountability


A learning system

Coherence


education systems

Coherence of policies and practices Alignment of policies

across all aspects of the system Coherence of policies

over sustained periods of time Consistency of implementation Fidelity of implementation

(without excessive control)

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.0Then Now

Learning a place Learning an activity

Prescription Informed profession

Delivered wisdom User-generated wisdom

Uniformity Embracing diversity

Conformity Ingenious

Curriculum-centred Learner-centred

Provision Outcomes

Bureaucratic look-up Devolved – look outwards

Management Leadership

Public vs private Public with private

Culture as obstacle Culture as capital

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Thank you !

www.oecd.org; www.pisa.oecd.org– All national and international publications– The complete micro-level database

email: [email protected]

[email protected]

…and remember:

Without data, you are just another person with an opinion

münchen, 19 november 2011 schule 2.0 münchen, 19 november 2011 prof. andreas schleicher advisory...

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