n17 l17 17 e17 ct17 o17 dec17 - world...
TRANSCRIPT
Global Monthly December 2017
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.7
4.8
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.0
Jun-
17
Jul-1
7
Aug-
17
Sep-
17
Oct
-17
Nov
-17
Dec
-17
World EM7 (RHS)Percent Percent
2
December 2017
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Percent, quarter-on-quarter annualized
2010-15 average
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
48
50
52
54
Jan-
14
Jul-1
4
Jan-
15
Jul-1
5
Jan-
16
Jul-1
6
Jan-
17
Jul-1
7
Index, 50+=expansion
New export ordersBaltic Dry (RHS)
Index
-4-20246810
-2-1012345
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
GDPIndustrial production (RHS)
Percent, year-on-year Percent, year-on-year
3
December 2017
90
95
100
105
110
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Index, 100=2008Q1
Euro AreaGermany
-2
-1
0
1
2
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Headline CorePercent, year-on-year
-8
-4
0
4
8
2010
-14
2015
H1
2015
H2
2016
H1
2016
H2
2017
H1
2017
Q3
Current accountNet capital flowsChange in reserves
Percent of GDP
4
December 2017
0
1
2
Jun-
17
Jul-1
7
Aug-
17
Sep-
17
Oct
-17
Nov
-17
Dec
-17
BrazilRussiaSouth Africa
Percent
12345678
Jun-
17
Jul-1
7
Aug-
17
Sep-
17
Oct
-17
Nov
-17
Dec
-17
India MexicoPoland Turkey
Percent
-500
50100150200250300
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2017
Basis points
5
December 2017
100
110
120
130
Jan-
17
Feb-
17M
ar-1
7
Apr-1
7M
ay-1
7
Jun-
17Ju
l-17
Aug-
17
Sep-
17O
ct-1
7
Nov
-17
Dec
-17
WorldAdvanced economiesEMDEs
Index, 100=Jan. 2, 2017
010203040506070
Jan-
16M
ar-1
6M
ay-1
6Ju
l-16
Sep-
16N
ov-1
6Ja
n-17
Mar
-17
May
-17
Jul-1
7Se
p-17
Nov
-17
EAP LAC MNAECA SA SSA
US$, billions
20
40
60
80
100
120
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
BalancePrice (RHS)
mb/d US$/bbl
6
December 2017
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
EnergyMetalsAgriculture
Index, 100=2010
6
8
10
12
14
16
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Saudi ArabiaOther GulfNon-Gulf
mb/d
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2013
Q1
2013
Q3
2014
Q1
2014
Q3
2015
Q1
2015
Q3
2016
Q1
2016
Q3
2017
Q1
Range Average U.S. Shale
US$/bbl
7
December 2017
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
ChinaOECDOther non-OECD
mmt
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
MaizeRiceWheat
Percent
0
30
60
90
120
150
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
EnergyMetalsAgriculture
Index, 100=2010
8
December 2017
Global Economic Prospects - January 2018 (forthcoming) Commodity Markets Outlook - October 2017 Global Economic Prospects - June 2017: A Fragile Recovery
Asset Prices and Macroeconomic Outcomes: A Survey Macroeconomic Implications of Financial Imperfections: A Survey The Internet and Chinese Exports in the Pre-Alibaba Era Economic Growth, Convergence, and World Food Demand and Supply Microfinance and Economic Development The Impacts of Safety Nets in Africa: What Are We Learning? Gender and Youth Employment in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Review of Constraints and Effective Interventions FDI Spillovers and High-growth Firms in Developing Countries Financial Development, Growth, and Crisis: Is There a Trade-off? How Much Oil Is the Islamic State Group Producing? Evidence from Remote Sensing What are the Effects of Expanding a Social Pension Program on Extreme Poverty and Labor Supply? Evidence from Mexico’s Pension Program for the Elderly Political Economy of Reform
World Development Report 2018: LEARNING to Realize Education’s Promise Trouble in the Making? The Future of Manufacturing-Led Development
(Percent change, y/y)
(Percent change y/y)
Recent releases: October 24, 2017 - December 6, 2017 Upcoming releases: December 7, 2017 - December 25, 2017
Country Date Indicator Period Actual Forecast Previous Country Date Indicator Period Previous
UK 10/25/17 GDP Q3 1.5 % 1.55 % 1.5 % Eurozone 12/7/17 GDP Q3 2.3 %
South Korea 10/25/17 GDP Q3 3.6 % 3.2 % 2.7 % Mexico 12/7/17 CPI NOV 6.4%
United States 10/27/17 GDP Q3 2.3 % - 2.2 % Japan 12/7/17 GDP Q3 2.5 %
France 10/31/17 GDP Q3 2.2 % - 1.8 % Hungary 12/8/17 CPI NOV 2.2 %
Mexico 10/31/17 GDP Q3 1.6% 1.5% 1.9% Brazil 12/8/17 CPI NOV 2.7%
Indonesia 11/6/2017 GDP Q3 5.1% 5.0% 5.0% China 12/8/17 CPI NOV 1.9 %
Netherland 11/14/17 GDP Q3 3.0 % 3.4 % 3.3% Czech Republic 12/11/17 CPI NOV 2.9 %
Italy 11/14/17 GDP Q3 1.8 % 1.65 % 1.5 % Poland 12/11/17 CPI NOV 2.1 %
Poland 11/14/17 GDP Q3 4.7 % - 4.0% Romania 12/12/17 CPI NOV 2.6 %
Euro Area 11/14/17 GDP Q3 2.5 % 2.5 % 2.3 % UK 12/12/17 CPI OCT 3.0 %
Portugal 11/14/17 GDP Q3 2.5 % 2.8 % 2.9 % South Africa 12/13/17 CPI NOV 4.8 %
Philippines 11/14/17 GDP Q3 6.9 % 6.3 % 6.7% United States 12/13/17 CPI NOV 2.0 %
Malaysia 11/17/17 GDP Q3 6.2 % 5.85 % 5.8 % Finland 12/14/17 CPI NOV 0.5 %
Thailand 11/20/17 GDP Q3 4.3 % 3.95 % 3.8% France 12/14/17 CPI NOV 1.1 %
Germany 11/23/17 GDP Q3 2.8 % 2.8 % 2.3% Bulgaria 12/14/17 CPI NOV 2.5 %
Czech Republic 12/1/17 GDP Q3 5.0 % 5.0% 4.7% Portugal 12/14/17 CPI NOV 1.4 %
Brazil 12/1/17 GDP Q3 1.4 % 1.3 % 0.4% Eurozone 12/18/17 CPI NOV 1.4 %
Greece 12/4/17 GDP Q3 1.3 % 1.0% 0.8 % United States 12/21/17 GDP Q3 2.2 %
Romania 12/5/17 GDP Q3 8.6 % 8.8 % 5.9% France 12/22/17 GDP Q3 1.8 %
Hungary 12/5/17 GDP Q3 3.9 % 3.6% 3.2 % UK 12/22/17 GDP Q3 1.5 %
South Africa 12/5/17 GDP Q3 0.8 % 1.0% 1.1 % Japan 12/25/17 CPI NOV 0.2 %
9
December 2017
(Percent change y/y, except quarterly data on industrial production, which are percent change q/q, annualized) 2016 2017 2016 2017 2015 2016 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Industrial Production, sa 1 World 1.8 2.0 4.9 3.7 5.0 3.2 3.2 3.6 3.0 3.3 3.9 3.8 4.3 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.4 Advanced economies 0.2 0.2 4.0 1.5 4.4 2.4 2.0 2.6 1.1 2.2 2.3 2.5 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.0 3.7 Emerging market and developing economies 3.5 3.9 6.0 5.9 5.6 4.0 4.4 4.6 5.0 4.4 5.6 5.1 5.5 5.0 5.4 5.2 5.5 5.2 Commodity-exporting EMDEs -1.2 0.0 0.5 2.8 5.0 3.3 1.0 2.1 2.0 1.1 1.7 2.5 3.9 1.0 2.3 3.3 3.1 - Other EMDE 5.1 5.1 7.5 6.8 5.8 4.2 5.4 5.3 5.8 5.3 6.7 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.3 5.8 6.2 5.7 East Asia and Pacific 5.8 5.9 6.3 7.2 6.4 4.6 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.1 7.4 6.3 6.4 6.6 6.0 5.9 6.5 6.0 East Asia excl. China 3.6 4.6 4.2 4.9 2.2 7.9 4.4 6.3 4.6 5.1 6.0 4.8 5.6 0.8 3.5 4.8 6.0 -
Europe and Central Asia 1.5 2.0 9.3 5.4 8.0 2.5 2.7 2.7 4.3 1.4 4.3 4.4 6.4 4.9 6.7 6.0 6.1 5.4
Latin America and Caribbean -2.8 -2.4 -0.5 0.8 0.6 1.9 -0.4 1.2 0.1 0.3 -0.7 -0.3 0.9 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.3 -
Middle East and North Africa -3.3 -7.0 25.0 20.0 21.1 11.4 -4.7 10.3 13.1 17.1 4.7 21.0 20.3 23.1 30.8 15.3 12.4 - South Asia 3.5 5.2 6.7 4.9 1.6 5.1 5.1 2.8 4.2 1.9 5.4 4.6 3.5 0.1 3.9 4.5 5.3 - Sub-Saharan Africa -0.3 0.9 -2.5 -4.4 2.9 4.2 1.1 -0.9 0.1 -2.5 -2.1 -0.5 -1.9 -2.7 -0.5 1.1 -0.6 - Inflation, sa 2 World 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.6 2.2 2.3 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 Advanced economies 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 1.4 1.5 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.8 1.5 1.9 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.4
Emerging market and developing economies 2.4 2.7 2.7 3.3 3.1 3.0 2.6 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.1 2.8 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.5 Commodity-exporting EMDEs 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.5 3.1 3.1 3.4 3.1 3.6 Other EMDE 1.0 1.1 1.7 3.1 3.0 2.9 1.6 1.8 2.6 3.2 3.5 3.2 2.9 2.3 2.5 2.9 3.4 3.4 East Asia and Pacific 1.2 2.0 2.5 2.7 2.9 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.7 3.4 3.5 3.2 2.9 2.4 2.3 2.6 3.1 3.2 Europe and Central Asia 1.9 0.4 1.0 2.4 2.4 2.7 0.9 1.6 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.6
Latin America and Caribbean 2.7 2.4 2.8 3.0 2.7 3.2 2.8 2.7 2.7 3.0 3.0 3.1 2.9 2.2 2.9 3.3 3.6 3.5
Middle East and North Africa 1.8 2.7 2.0 2.6 1.5 1.1 2.0 1.8 2.3 2.3 2.9 1.7 1.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.7 2.3 South Asia 4.5 4.4 4.7 4.3 4.5 3.4 4.6 3.8 3.7 4.1 4.9 4.8 4.9 3.9 3.0 3.4 3.9 3.8 Sub-Saharan Africa 3.6 5.2 5.7 5.7 5.1 4.8 5.9 5.7 5.8 5.8 4.9 4.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3 3.8 5.0
2016 2017 2016 2017 2015 2016 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Ju Jul Aug Sep Oct
Exports, Nominal, US$, sa World -11.6 -3.0 8.8 19.4 3.0 12.1 5.1 4.0 11.0 7.7 12.9 3.9 11.2 7.6 10.2 10.7 11.2 - Advanced economies -11.4 -0.8 5.4 19.4 1.4 17.3 6.3 5.6 10.2 8.1 10.7 1.2 10.4 6.6 9.9 10.5 11.3 - Emerging market and developing economies -11.9 -6.5 15.4 19.6 5.9 3.2 3.4 1.6 12.6 6.9 17.0 8.8 12.8 9.6 10.6 11.0 10.9 -
Commodity-exporting EMDEs -24.2 -9.2 29.4 39.3 -12.1 13.1 8.9 7.8 26.5 19.1 23.2 13.3 19.4 9.7 16.1 16.1 14.9 - Other EMDEs -3.7 -4.6 10.3 12.3 14.3 0.0 1.8 -0.4 7.5 2.2 14.7 7.1 10.3 9.5 8.6 9.2 9.5 9.9 East Asia and Pacific -3.5 -6.1 11.0 13.1 16.1 -1.6 1.8 -2.1 8.8 2.2 15.6 8.9 11.3 9.3 10.4 8.1 9.8 9.9 Europe and Central Asia -20.7 -6.1 19.7 35.0 -4.1 16.3 6.5 7.6 22.5 12.4 20.8 5.6 19.3 10.9 11.3 19.8 16.3 - Latin America and Caribbean -11.8 -2.3 14.7 27.9 -2.9 5.7 10.1 10.9 14.8 12.3 17.4 9.7 11.5 12.5 10.6 11.4 10.4 16.5 Middle East and North Africa -27.1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - South Asia -4.0 0.7 31.8 10.7 -8.7 20.8 1.5 2.2 3.1 0.0 11.2 6.6 -1.6 -3.1 12.2 10.4 15.3 - Sub-Saharan Africa -26.9 -14.7 29.1 45.8 -14.6 - 1.0 3.4 22.6 25.8 19.6 8.7 14.0 13.1 - - - -
Imports, Nominal, US$, sa World -6.9 -5.2 23.9 21.8 16.0 -2.8 3.6 -1.6 11.5 5.4 10.3 -6.2 25.4 7.2 21.2 16.1 5.6 - Advanced economies -12.7 -3.2 2.6 21.1 2.4 13.8 2.6 1.4 9.6 3.4 9.2 1.9 10.3 5.0 10.7 9.4 9.1 -
Emerging market and developing economies -3.3 -6.3 38.9 22.1 24.6 -11.2 4.1 -3.3 12.6 6.6 11.0 -10.4 34.6 8.5 27.7 20.4 3.6 21.5 Commodity-exporting EMDEs -1.0 -7.1 44.6 17.4 34.2 -16.3 3.8 -5.5 11.9 2.1 8.8 -15.4 39.7 7.3 31.5 22.4 -0.6 -
Other EMDEs -11.4 -3.1 21.4 39.4 -3.1 8.7 5.4 4.3 14.9 22.8 18.8 11.1 17.5 12.6 15.4 14.1 17.2 15.9 East Asia and Pacific -13.1 -3.6 22.7 49.9 -11.2 11.2 5.9 5.7 17.0 33.7 20.5 12.5 17.9 13.5 15.7 13.9 18.8 17.8 Europe and Central Asia -20.8 -1.2 11.6 42.7 12.9 16.2 6.1 8.4 20.9 10.0 14.4 7.6 22.9 13.6 26.4 16.6 18.3 - Latin America and Caribbean -9.9 -7.4 4.8 26.1 -9.0 9.3 1.4 3.6 11.0 5.1 13.3 -1.3 12.3 6.1 7.3 9.1 4.8 15.6 Middle East and North Africa 1.4 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - South Asia -13.2 -5.4 58.0 33.2 13.0 -16.3 12.0 2.8 14.8 21.6 40.5 42.1 31.1 13.6 19.1 19.7 17.6 9.4 Sub-Saharan Africa -7.7 -13.9 -7.7 - - - -9.2 -12.2 - - - - - - - - - - International Reserves, US$1 World -5.7 -2.0 -2.7 1.7 2.1 1.7 -1.4 -0.5 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.0 Advanced economies 2.2 3.2 -1.1 3.5 2.9 1.7 -0.8 0.0 1.6 0.4 1.4 1.2 1.1 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.2 -0.3 Emerging market and developing economies -10.7 -5.3 -3.7 0.5 1.5 1.7 -1.8 -0.8 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2
Commodity-exporting EMDEs -11.1 -4.5 -2.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 -1.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 - Other EMDEs -10.3 -5.7 -4.3 0.5 2.0 2.2 -2.0 -1.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.1 East Asia and Pacific -12.4 -7.3 -4.7 0.5 1.7 2.1 -2.3 -1.2 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.1 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.0 Europe and Central Asia -6.8 3.4 -4.2 2.9 3.2 3.1 -1.8 -1.6 1.9 0.6 0.3 -0.2 1.3 2.0 1.1 1.6 0.3 0.2 Latin America and Caribbean -5.3 1.4 -1.0 0.5 1.7 1.0 -0.6 0.2 0.6 0.2 -0.3 0.8 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 Middle East and North Africa -17.7 -10.7 -2.4 -2.0 -1.8 - -1.0 0.2 -1.6 -0.6 0.2 -1.2 -0.3 -0.3 -1.0 -0.2 - - South Asia 10.9 3.6 -3.0 2.1 4.5 2.4 -1.6 -0.3 0.5 0.5 1.0 0.7 2.0 1.7 1.1 1.2 0.2 -0.1 Sub-Saharan Africa -12.7 -4.7 3.7 3.2 0.8 - 0.7 3.8 1.3 2.4 -0.5 3.5 -1.2 -1.6 2.3 -1.8 - -
(Percent change y/y, except quarterly trade data, which are percent change q/q, annualized, and international reserves data, which are percent change over the previous period)
10
December 2017
(Percent change y/y, except quarterly trade data, which are percent change q/q, annualized, and international reserves data, which are percent change over the previous period )
2016 2017 2016 2017 MRV 1
2015 2016 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Interest rates and LIBOR (percent) U.S. federal funds effective 0.13 0.40 0.45 0.70 0.95 1.15 0.55 0.66 0.66 0.79 0.91 0.90 1.04 1.15 1.15 1.16 1.16 1.15 1.16 ECB repo 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 US$ LIBOR 3-months 0.32 0.74 0.92 1.07 1.20 1.32 0.98 1.03 1.04 1.13 1.16 1.19 1.26 1.31 1.31 1.32 1.36 1.43 1.51 EURIBOR 3-months -0.02 -0.26 -0.31 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.32 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 - -0.33 U.S. 10-year Treasury yield 2.12 1.84 2.12 2.44 2.25 2.24 2.50 2.44 2.42 2.47 2.29 2.29 2.18 2.32 2.21 2.19 2.35 - 2.34 German Bund, 10 year 0.54 0.14 0.18 0.35 0.30 0.46 0.30 0.34 0.32 0.39 0.25 0.36 0.28 0.55 0.42 0.41 0.42 - 0.38 Spreads (basis points) JP Morgan emerging markets 415 410 369 340 325 322 370 354 338 329 331 320 325 327 325 314 306 320 315 Asia 224 221 197 175 169 161 198 185 173 166 173 167 166 163 163 157 148 153 154 Europe 348 302 283 261 242 234 282 272 258 253 250 237 240 243 234 224 226 244 233 Latin America and the Caribbean 540 537 475 445 427 428 481 463 442 431 431 420 430 435 435 416 407 422 420 Middle East 456 517 467 396 362 383 438 416 396 377 350 353 382 382 382 384 381 421 401 Africa 415 518 436 389 386 380 422 401 387 380 400 376 383 394 378 367 360 359 341 Stock indexes (end of period) Global (MSCI) 399 424 424 449 465 487 424 433 445 449 455 464 465 478 478 487 497 505 502 Advanced economies ($ index) 1663 1761 1761 1854 1916 2001 1761 1792 1839 1854 1878 1912 1916 1961 1960 2001 2037 2077 2064 United States (S&P 500) 2044 2258 2258 2363 2423 2519 2258 2279 2364 2363 2384 2421 2423 2470 2472 2519 2575 2648 2630 Europe (S&P Euro 350) 1474 1475 1475 1547 1534 1571 1475 1463 1501 1547 1564 1576 1534 1526 1512 1571 1600 1563 1565 Japan (Nikkei 225) 18817 19302 19302 18909 20033 20356 19302 19035 19342 18909 19197 19836 20033 19974 19720 20356 22198 22730 22485
Emerging market and developing economies (MSCI) 794 861 861 958 1011 1082 861 909 936 958 978 1005 1011 1066 1088 1082 1119 1121 1118
EM Asia 404 419 419 474 512 543 419 443 459 474 484 505 512 538 544 543 571 572 569 EM Europe 244 295 295 301 304 331 295 302 296 301 313 308 304 315 336 331 330 330 331 EM Europe and Middle East 211 248 248 252 251 268 248 253 249 252 259 255 251 261 274 268 268 265 267 EM Latin America & Caribbean 1830 2341 2341 2611 2544 2917 2341 2516 2600 2611 2601 2532 2544 2752 2873 2917 2809 2719 2743
Exchange rates (LCU / USD) Advanced economies Euro Area 0.90 0.90 0.93 0.94 0.91 0.85 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.91 0.89 0.87 0.85 0.84 0.85 0.85 0.84 Japan 121.00 108.80 109.63 113.63 111.10 110.96 116.28 115.03 112.96 112.91 110.02 112.36 110.91 112.31 109.78 110.80 112.93 112.81 112.17 Emerging market and developing economies Brazil 3.33 3.49 3.28 3.14 3.21 3.16 3.35 3.20 3.10 3.13 3.14 3.20 3.30 3.20 3.15 3.13 3.19 3.26 3.26 China 6.29 6.65 6.84 6.89 6.86 6.67 6.92 6.89 6.87 6.90 6.89 6.88 6.81 6.77 6.67 6.57 6.62 6.62 6.62 Egypt 7.70 10.12 14.71 17.82 18.10 17.77 18.56 18.68 17.01 17.76 18.09 18.10 18.11 17.92 17.75 17.65 17.64 17.68 17.69 India 64.14 67.19 67.39 66.97 64.48 64.29 67.86 68.06 67.01 65.83 64.52 64.46 64.45 64.44 63.97 64.46 65.07 64.85 64.46 Russia 61.34 67.06 62.95 58.67 57.17 58.93 62.03 59.76 58.42 57.83 56.53 56.88 58.10 59.72 59.42 57.66 57.76 58.97 58.90 South Africa 12.77 14.71 13.92 13.24 13.21 13.19 13.88 13.60 13.17 12.95 13.46 13.25 12.91 13.15 13.25 13.17 13.71 14.06 13.74
Memo: U.S. nominal effective rate (index) 114.7 119.7 122.5 123.4 120.7 116.6 124.9 124.8 123.0 122.5 121.6 121.0 119.4 117.9 116.4 115.4 117.4 117.6 116.9
Sources: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan, and World Bank. 1 MRV = most recent value.
2016 2017 2016 MRV 1 2017
2015 2016 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Energy 2 65 55 64 68 64 65 68 69 69 65 67 64 60 62 65 68 71 76 76
Non-energy 2 82 80 83 86 82 84 84 85 87 85 83 83 82 83 84 85 86 86 86
Agriculture 2 89 89 90 91 88 87 89 91 91 89 88 89 87 88 86 87 87 87 87
Metals and minerals 2 68 64 71 78 74 81 75 76 79 79 75 73 72 76 83 84 84 84 82 Memo items: Crude oil, average ($/bbl) 51 43 49 53 50 50 53 54 54 51 52 50 46 48 50 53 55 60 61 Gold ($/toz) 1161 1249 1221 1219 1258 1278 1157 1192 1234 1231 1267 1246 1260 1237 1283 1314 1280 1282 1282 Baltic Dry Index 711 676 994 938 1023 1138 1031 913 760 1142 1229 979 861 906 1144 1363 1484 1455 1626 Sources: World Bank, World Bank Commodities Price Data (The Pink Sheet), Bloomberg. 1 MRV = most recent value. 2 Indexes, 2010 = 100.