Reference: UNESCO New Delhi office: Contract No.4500139114

Assessment Report

Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve, Uttarakhand, India as a baseline for further studies related to the implementation of Global

Change in Mountain Regions (GLOCHAMORE) Research Strategy Period of activity: May-November, 2011

K.G. Saxena, School of Environmental Sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi 110067, India. kgsaxena@mail.jnu.ac.in; kgsaxena@gmail.com; Phone: 9971461199

in collaboration with R.K. Maikhuri, G.B. Pant Institute of Himalayan Environment and Development, Garhwal Unit, Srinagar (Garhwal), Uttarakhand, India K.S. Rao, Department of Botany, Delhi University, Delhi Sunil Nautiyal, Institute of Social and Economic Change, Bangalore R.L. Semwal, SES, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi 1. The current state of existing natural resources (biodiversity and water resources), land use and socio-economic conditions 1.1. Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve- a globally significant biosphere reserve

The Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve (NDBR: 300 05’ and 310 02’ N Latitude, and 790 12’ and 800 19’ E Longitude) in Chamoli, Pithoragarh and Bageshwar districts of the state of Uttarakhand, is located in West Himalaya Highland Biogeographic Zone (2a) and is distinguished globally for its magnificent alpine meadows hosting many endemic elements, scenic beauty, and a rare highly dissected high elevation terrain the destination of most adventurous tourists. The area notified as Nanda Devi Wildlife Sanctuary in 1939 was upgraded as Nanda Devi National Park (NDNP) with an area of 624.6 km2 in 1982 and subsequently on 18th January 1988, taking a cue from UNESCO’s Man and Biosphere (MAB) programme, was given the status of Biosphere Reserve and named Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve (NDBR) with a further increase in its area to 2236.74 km2. This reserve was recognized as a World Heritage Site (WHS) in 1988. In the year 2000, the Valley of Flowers National Park (VoFNP) was added as a second core zone of the reserve, the first one being NDNP (NDNP: 624.6 km2; VoFNP: 87.5 km2; buffer zone: 5147 km2 comprising civil forests:4,595 km2, reserved forests: 490 km2 and Van Panchayat forests: 58 km2) with a total area increased to 5860.69 km2. A transition zone 546 km2 around south-western and eastern sides of the buffer zone was created in 2002. The NDBR was included in the UNESCO’s world network of Biosphere Reserves in 2004.

NDNP and VoFNP, with , ~81% and ~73% of their areas, respectively, under perpetual snow and glaciers are habitats of snow leopard and musk deer and genetic reservoirs of many economically valuable biota. There are 47 villages located at 2000- > 2500 m amsl in the old buffer zone of the reserve and dispersed as patches in the matrix of forests. The core zones are completely protected; only regulated tourism in VoFNP and occasional mountaineering expeditions, scientific explorations and monitoring activities allowed in NDNP. The transition zone (52 villages including pilgrimage sites Sri Badrinath and Sri Hemkunt Sahib) attracts hundreds of thousands of pilgrims

every year. Since 1988 onwards, the NDBR-WHS has been receiving financial support from national and international agencies.

From geomorphologiacal point of view, the buffer zone occupies the whole Alaknanda and Rishi Ganga catchment (a subcatchement of the Ganga river system, the key water resource of the ‘bread basket’ of south Asia, the Indo-Gangetic alluvial plains) that is encircled by High Himalayan peaks including Nanda Devi, -India’s second highest peak.

1.2. People

Historically, the local inhabitants of the old buffer zone, the Bhotiyas were traders with

livestock husbandry as their subsidiary occupation. Until 1962, they would carry wheat, rice and buckwheat to Tibet and barter these products with salt and wool. Villages located above 2500 m amsl in Chamoli part practise transhumance and inhabitatnts pass winter at lower altitudes outside buffer zone engaging themselves with sharecropping on the land of Garhwali people. The land rights of Bhotiyas were not even recognized in the formal land right system of 1960. . Communities in Lata, Reni, Peng and Tolma villages do not migrate. Woolen handlooms and beverage production are the traditional cottage industries. Marketing (barter system) within village operates on a very small scale but is a crucial determinant of resource flows. However, of late with increasing influence of modern marketing system, acreage under cash crops has increased. Livestock (particularly goat/sheep), raw medicinal and aromatic plant products (both collected from wild and cultivated), woolen handloom products and traditional beverages are the major export items from the villages and salt, sugar, oil and consumer products the major import items. 1.2.1. Land and livestock holdings

Sheep, goats, cows, bullocks, horses and mules are the main livestock reared by most of the households. Horses and mules are kept for transport of goods, goats and sheep for wool and meat, cows/ bullocks/yaks/yak-cow crossbreeds for draught power, manure and milk. Sheep population declined drastically and yak husbandry altogether abandoned after a large traditional pasture areas were included in the National Park/core zone in 1982. Wool is exported and processed wool yarn required for traditional handlooms is imported. 1.2.2. Population growth

High and low elevation villages differed more in terms of the rate of increase in number of households and migration of families than total population growth during 1981-2001 period. Population in low elevation zone villages increased by 22% compared to 18% in high elevation zone. Outmigration occurred at higher rates in high elevation-buffer zone villages compared to low elevation-outside reserve villages. Immigrant Nepalese people settled only in low elevation-outside reserve villages. 1.2.3. Income

The two elevation zones differed more in terms of relative dependence on different sources of income rather than total average income. Only high elevation villages derived direct economic benefits from the forests. Income from agriculture and tertiary sector were substantially higher but that from livestock lower in lower elevation zone outside the reserve compared to high elevation villages in the reserve. Annual income (Rs/family/yr: US $1 = Rs 40) in high altitude-buffer zone villages and low altitude-outside reserve villages Source of income High elevation Low elevation Agriculture + horticulture 4260 + 190 7900 + 360 Animal husbandry + bee keeping 2150 + 150 580 + 45

Forest products and MAPs 1978 + 90 Nil Cottage industries based on raw material from forests

892 + 60 Nil

Service/daily wages/business 1820 + 85 4860 + 260 Total (Rs.) 11100 13340 1.3. Climate

The climatic year is distinguished by three seasons – summer (April- June), rainy season (June-September), and winter (October-March). Average annual rainfall is 930 mm, with 48% of it occurring in two months (July-August). The maximum temperature ranges from 11 to 24°C and the minimum from 3 to 7 °C. Broadly two climatic zones could be distinguished: (i) Lower montane zone: elevation range of 1800-2400 m amsl, average annual temperature of 10-140 C and precipitation more in the form of showers than snowfall and (ii) Upper montane zone: elevation range of 2400-3000m amsl, average annual temperature of 4.5-100, precipitation more in terms of snowfall than showers (Gaur, 1999).

Instrumental records of climate are limited and confined to only one location (Joshimath) as

given below. A high degree of variation in temperature and rainfall within as well as between-years is evident. Mean maximum and minimum temperatures and monthly rainfall based on data available for 1958-87 period Joshimath 1958-87

Month Maximum

temperature Minimum

temperature Rainfall (mm) January 11.4 2.1 65.3 February 12.4 3.2 98 March 17.6 6.6 114.3 April 21.8 10.8 64 May 24.6 13.9 71.3 June 25.9 16.6 132.3 July 24.1 16.9 247.4 August 23.6 16.9 222.4 September 22.9 14.8 104.8 October 20.6 10.5 45.1 November 16.8 6.2 15.4 December 13.6 3.8 25 Total 1205.3

A comparison of rainfall measured in 2004, 2005 and 2006 and average values derived from data available during 1958-87 period At finer scales, such as within a mountain region with high relief and aligned along east-west direction like the Himalaya, climate change scenarios vary enormously because of huge variation in elevation, insolation and orographic factors. Year-to-year random fluctuations in temperature and precipitation, the key elements of climate, and alternation of high/low precipitation epochs and warm/cool episodes are inherent attributes of monsoon. Hence, a long term data base is required to isolate long term climate change signals or trends from short/medium term fluctuations and periodicities. Instrumental measurements of climate variables in the Himalaya are available only for the post-1850 period and one may consider 150-year-data to be inadequate for precisely identifying the long term monsoon climate trends. While analyzing 1866-2006 climate data of north-western Himalaya, Bhutiyani et al. (2010) observed 1876-1892 and 1893-1939 as warm and cool episodes, respectively.. In the 1871-2001 national scale climate data, Kriplani et al. (2003) showed alternation of high and low precipitation epochs (an epoch spanning a period around 30 years) and concluded that global warming did not have any distinct effect on Indian monsoon rainfall or occurrence of flood and drought. On the other hand, Rupa Kumar et al. (1992) concluded a decline in rainfall by 6-8% per hundred years over the north-eastern but an increase by 10-12% per hundred years over the western part of the country. As long term trends are confounded with the short/medium term climate fluctuations and periodicities, projections on climate change trends are likely to be significantly influenced by temporal scale of change analysis: one would project higher rates of warming if time span of change analysis corresponds only to warm episode and lower rates of warming if to both warm and cool episodes. As Himalayas are a highly heterogeneous system, spatial scale is also likely to be a significant determinant of climate change trends. To illustrate, meteorological records of a single location Leh do not reflect any clear trend in monsoon rainfall but pooled data of a large area of the the northwest Himalaya around Leh reflect a significant decline in monsoon rainfall. Further, one would arrive at warming rates of 0.16 ºC and 0.11 ºC per in 1901-2006 and 1876-2006 data sets, respectively (Bhutiyani et al., 2010). There are three tools of measuring climate change viz., models, trend analysis of long-term instrumental records and dendrochronology (analysis of tree rings, the proxy records of past climate), with finer variations within each kind of tool. Models vary in terms of their parameters, variables and spatial scale (global and regional circulation models) of operation. Efforts on trend analysis of long term instrumental records vary in terms of principles and algorithms of filling in the “missing values” and scrutiny data records (Chiu et al., 2009). Studies on dendrochronology based scenarios vary in terms of selection of tree species for ring studies and separation of climate and non-climate factors on

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tree growth. As stated earlier, studies focusing on climate change around NDBR are lacking. Some inferences and insights could be gained from studies carried out in similar conditions. There is a wide range of variation in climate change scenarios described for the Himalayan region: Climate change scenarios in higher elevations of Himalaya and adjoining areas with some resemblance to arid pocket (Malari and similar villages) of NDBR

Area Reported climate trend Author and method of

change analysis Karakorum Increase in precipitation, decline in summer

temperature, diminishing trend of glaciers during 1920-70, short term advances and surges during 1970s and again expanding trend in 1990s Time period: 1920-2000

Hewitt (2005); analysis of climate station records over the period 1920-2000

Lancang river valley

Increase in mean annual temperature by 0.1 to 0.4 °C per year, increase in precipitation by 5.77-7.44 mm/year at two stations and decrease by 2.86-5.29 mm/year at 3 stations, lower reaches experienced more severe temperature increase and precipitation decrease

Yunling and Yiping (2005); analysis of instrumental records of 19 stations over the period 1960-2000

Northwestern Himalaya (Laddakh)

Increase in monsoon, winter and annual temperature by 0.09, 0.17 and 0.11 °C per decade, respecitively; iInsignificant changes in monsoon, winter and annual precipitation

Bhutiyani et al. (2010); trend analysis of instrumental records of the period 1901-1989

Nepal Cooling before 1977, warming by 0.12 °C per year thereafter

Shreshtha et al. (1999) Trend analysis of 1971-1994 instrumental records of maximum temperature

Qinghai-Xizang Plateau

Cooling during 1950-70, warming after 1970 Li and Tang (1986); trend analysis of instrumental records of 30 years (1950-1980)

Karakorum Decrease in summer mean temperature in all sites, with rates in the range of 0.04-0.99 °C per decade Increase in winter mean temperature at four stations in the range of 0.07- 0.38°C and decrease at two stations in the ranges of 0.03-0.07°C per decade. Increase in mean annual temperature by 0.01-0.21°C at two stations and decrease at four stations in the range of 0.08-0.52 °C decade.

Fowler and Archer (2006); trend analysis of instrumental records of the period 1961-1999)

Inadequate accounting of topographical/orographical factors, the crucial determinants of

climatic conditions in the Himalaya, is a major limitation with global and regional circulation models leading to divergence in climate change trends revealed by different models. For example, Oregon State University model and UK British Meteorological model predict increased aridity on humid slopes (slope receiving monsoon rainfall) and reduced aridity on arid slopes (rain shadow region) in high Himalaya, while Goddard Institute Space Studies model and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model predict the just opposite trends (Brazel and Marcus, 1991) While. Precision of predictions can be enhanced by nesting location specific high resolution models within low resolution

global models, an approach not yet tried in the Himalayan region. A trend of warming in the 20th century revealed by mathematical models is not supported from the trends deduced from analysis of tree ring attributes (Yadav et al., 1997). Tree ring analyses did not provide any evidence for reduced precipitation but did suggest substantial warming on Tibetan plateau (Harris, 2010).

Thus, there is a high degree of uncertainty associated with projected global climate change

scenarios. This uncertainty is a combined outcome of multiple factors and processes, with significant interactions between them, determining climatic conditions, spatial/temporal scale of change analysis, gaps in scientific knowledge of feedbacks and interactions regulating climate and limitations of and divergence between different climate change analysis techniques (Wigley and Barnett, 1960; Vitousek, 1994; Mayer et al., 2010; Saxena et al., 2011). Climate change mitigation and adaptation actions therefore are to be taken in the face of a scientific uncertainty of projected climate change scenarios and their consequences. Indeed, uncertainty is an element associated with virtually all scientific predictions, but is quite high in case of climate change, more so of local level/finer scale climate change which is the prime concern of farmers in marginal regions. Enhancement of scientific knowledge must be an integral component of all climate change programmes (Steffen et al., 2002). Integration of farmers’ perceptions and indigenous knowledge with the available scientific knowledge about climate change could be one way of building our capacity for global climate change mitigation and adaptation (Saxena et al., 2003; Rai and Gurung, 2005; Byg and Salick, 2009). 1.4. Biodiversity and global environmental services

The reserve is home to about (i) 600 vascular plant species, including several rare, endangered and threatened taxa (e.g. Dactylorhiza hataziera, Aconitum heterophyllum, Swertia chirayata , Taxus baccata), (ii) 18 mammals including 7 endangered species (viz., snow leopard (Panthera uncia), black bear (Celenarctos thibentamus), brown deer (Urcus arctos), musk deer(Moschus chrysogaster), bharal (Pseudois nayaur), Himalayan Tahr (Hemetragus jemlahicus) and Serow (Capricornis sumatraensis) and several bird species including 8 endangered species viz. Monal pleasant (Lophophorus impeganus), Himalayan snow cock (Tetraogallus himalayansis), Koklas pheasant (Purasic macrolopha), Western tragopan (Tragopan melanocephalus), Golden eagle (Aquila mipalansis), Black eagle (Letinaetus malayensis), Bearded vulture (Gypatus barbatus) (Mohan, 1993). The reserve is the birth place of the world famous Chipko (hugging the tree) movement (Rao et al., 2000). Forest types are differentiated in terms of relative dominance of Pinus wallichiana, Quercus spp., Cedrus deodara, mixed conifer, Betula spp., Abies spp and Cupressus torulosa.

1.5. Land use land cover and landscape management dynamics

1.5.1. Land use-land cover

Forests, alpine grasslands, wastelands and permanent snow/glacier covered 10%, 3%, 6%, and 81%, respectively, area of the core zone and 27%, 5%, 7% and 61%, respectively, of the buffer zone (Sahai and Kimothi, 1996). Farming and settlement area is negligible (<1%). There has been virtually no change in land use – land cover type since 1960s. 1.5.1. Natural resource/land use management: the traditional system

Crop husbandry-animal husbandry-wild biodiversity-rural economy are closely integrated subsystems, with a variety of socio-cultural-institutional mechanisms favoring a balance in utilization and regeneration of natural resources, equity and social harmony in highly isolated and inaccessible settlements (Maikhuri et al., 2001; Nautiyal et al., 2001, 2002; Misra et al., 2008). Each village had its own notional territories of forests and alpine meadows and resource uses within these ‘common lands’ were decided by consensus. Timber on a commercial scale was never extracted mainly because people viewed benefits from non-timber forest products more crucial for livelihoods than short term economic gains from timber trade and also strict vigilance by reserve authorities jointly with the people’s institutions viz., Eco Development Committees, Van Panchyats (Forest Councils) and

Youth/Women Brigade (Yuvak Mangal Dal and Mahila Mangal Dal). There were no restrictions on collection of wild edibles; dead wood and leaf litter (a constituent of farm yard manure) in the buffer zone because these resources were abundant. Lopping, grazing and collection of NTFPs were ‘group’ activities over time slots fixed by the village councils so as to reduce the risks of vested-interest driven over-exploitation by individuals. Social sanction of income from handicrafts made from forest products, wild medicinal plants and herding only to small-holders/land-less people and restrictions on hiring labor for agricultural or forestry from outside the village fostered equity and resource uses within carrying capacity. Natural resource rich villages (by virtue of comparative ecological advantages) allowed resource poor villages to use their resources more for social integrity than for economic gains, e.g., alpine villages rich in pastoral resources allowed grazing of livestock from outside the region under the supervision of local nomads without charging any tax for three reasons: (i) nomads used the distant areas not grazed by local livestock and hence did not threaten local economy, (ii) livestock in the outskirts of host villages reduced the probability of crop and livestock depredation in the host villages and (iii) the nomads bartered essential commodities, not available locally, with local products. 1.5.2. Natural resource/land use management: the changes in traditional system Land/resource ownership

Conventional conservation-development approaches have often assumed the traditional system to be inefficient in all respects and hence enforced altogether new tenurial regimes. The colonial government notified a large chunk of village common lands as ‘government forest and waste land’ in the later half of nineteenth century. As at present, forest land is stratified into: (a) national parks where all consumptive forest resource uses are prohibited, (b) reserved and protected forests under the control of Government Forest Department where local communities enjoy the concessions/privileges of utilizing non-timber forest products to meet their subsistence needs while government agencies can utilize both timber and NTFPs to meet the national economic/industrial raw material demands (c) community forests managed by Village Forest Management Committee (locally called Van Panchyat), with a provision of sharing of income from any commercial extractions with the government. There were two important generic implications of these changes imposed through law: reduction in area freely accessible to local people and emergence of a perception among local people that policy promoted conservation or national economic development from a resource base they had conserved.

Grazing

The villages whose alpine pastures happened to be outside the core zone of the reserve are allowing livestock of the villages whose pasture lands were included in the core zone to graze in their territories but on payment of Rs 20/horse or cattle and Rs 4/sheep or goat. Such linkages between resource rich and resource poor villages were not guided by any monetary consideration earlier in the traditional system. Livestock population pressure as well as composition has changed in recent years as evident from the available data:

Indeed, termination/reduction of grazing is likely to enhance biodiversity and ecosystem

services if the grazing pressure were intense. If local people are convinced about long term benefits from abandonment of grazing, they, by themselves, are likely to reduce their dependence on livestock. Systematic participatory experiments are needed to identify the strengths and weaknesses of traditional resource management systems. Medicinal plants

Traditionally only nomadic herders collected wild medicinal plant products while herding animals in remote pastures. This resource was used for local health care as well as for generating income but on a small scale. During 1980s, government agencies granted collection permits to individuals as a means of revenue earning. Seeing unsustainable resource utilization regimes driven by profit maximization motive of contractors, local people agitated forcing the government to abandon permit system. Over the last couple of decades, people have initiated cultivation of many medicinal species (some of which can also be used as spice and condiments) that they were collecting from the wild, a change rooted in indigenous innovations and not in climate/environmental change (Kandari et al., 2007). Relative area (%) under different crops during 1975, 1995 and 2009-10 in NDBR Crops Cropped area

in 1975 Cropped area in 1995

Cropped area in 2009-10

Amaranthus paniculatus 3.2 4.4 1.6 Brassica campestris 0.6 0.6 0.2 Echinochloa frumentocea 5.04 0 0 Eleusine coracana 0.66 0.6 0.2 Fagopyrum esculentum 7.7 7.7 2.5 Fagopyrum tataricum 10.1 8.2 3 Glycine max 5.04 0 0 Hordeum himalayens 9.5 5.6 2.6 Hordeum vulgare 5.56 4 1.8

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Pennisetum typhoides 5.04 0 0 Panicum miliaceum 3.33 0.6 0.1 Phaseolus lunetus 10.21 14.6 8 Phseolus vulgaris 4.3 6 4 Pisum sativum (Var. 1) 0.24 0.3 0.1 Pisum sativum (Var. 2) 0.41 0.3 0 Solanum tuberosum 3.4 6.6 3.1 Setaria italica 5.04 0 0 Triticum aestivum 18.85 21.3 13.2 A.Paniculatus + P. vulgaris 0 3.4 1.8 H. himalayens + Pisum sativum (Var. 2) 0 0 0 S. tuberosum + P. vulgaris 0 10.1 5 S. tuberosum + P. vulgaris + A. paniculatus 0 4 3 Allium humile 0.84 0.9 1.6 Allium stracheyi 0.84 0.9 1.8 Angelica glauca 0 0 0 Carum carvi 0 0 0.2 Dactylorhiza hatagirea 0 0 0 Megacarpaea polyandra 0 0 0 Pleurosperum angelicoides 0 0 0 Saussurea costus 0 0 0 Abandoned land 47.2

Wood/timber

Commercial timber extraction, for the first time, was sanctioned by in 1970s to earn revenue. Foreseeing scarcity of non-timber forest products required for sustaining crop and animal husbandry and, risks of hydrological imbalances and associated damage to human life and assets following commercial fellings, local people forced government to withdraw the sanction. This agitation (the Chipko movement, i.e., ‘hugging the tree movement) originating from Reni and Lata villages was such an eye-opener that the government banned felling of green trees in all hilly regions in the country in mid 1970s. Removal of dead/diseased trees started in 1960s and is still continued. As a result of effective protection of forests achieved through both formal and informal institutions, the forests in the reserve have huge carbon stocks (Maikhuri et al., 2000). Rural development as a component of protected area management In the traditional system, protection of forests from exploitation by outsiders or the insiders was a social responsibility. Policy interventions tried to achieve forest protection solely by enforcement rather than capitalizing on available social capital. Protection accounts for a significant government expenditure and is disliked by people as they do not derive any direct benefit from it. Afforestation, mechanical soil conservation measures and supply of solar power devices, wool, improved bee-hives and spinning devices on subsidized price to selected local households and many other interventions have been included in the biosphere reserve management plan as part of confidence building measures in order to elicit people’s participation in protection of the natural resources.

Physical and financial targets of various interventions promoted by Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve authority S.N. Items Units Rates Physical Financial (in Rs) (Rs.Lakh) A. ECO-DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY

1 Distribution of L.P.G Gas connections Nos. 2,500 40 1 2 Distribution of Solar Lanterns Nos. 4,000 50 2 3 Distribution of Fruit Plants Nos. 30 250 0.5 4 Repair of Terraces and field improvements Ha. 6,000 80 4.8 5 Distribution of domestic weaving machine Nos. 5,000 30 1.5

B. VALUE ADDITION ACTIVITY 1 Purchase and distribution of raw wool Qt. 60 100 6 2 Support and seed money to the Wool Carding

Plant. (set up in the year 2002) L.S L.S - 0.5

3 Grass land improvement and management Ha. 6,200 129 8 C. REHABILITATION OF LANDSCAPES

1 Maintenance of Forest Nurseries Nos. 1.4 214285 3 2 Maintenance of Medicinal Plant Nurseries Nos. 2 100000 2 3 Plantation in degraded forest lands Ha. 6,930 35 2.4 4 Advance soil work in degraded forest lands Ha. 6,968 43 3 5 Soil Conservation works

a. Checkdam Nos. 10,000 62 6.2 b. Retaining wall Nos. 20,000 30 6

6 Management of weed and Polygonum Ha. 6,000 100 6 7 Construction of Water holes and water

percolation tanks Nos. 10,000 30 3

D. PILOT PLOTS 1 Endangered medicinal plants and forest plant

conservation L.S L.S 2 1

E. ECO-TOURISM 1 Development of nature trails/trek routes Km. 15,000 48 7.2 2 Maintenance of old trek routes Km. 8,000 30 2.4 3 Setting up of Tourist Awareness Centres within

the villages Nos 25,000 4 1

4 Setting up of Gaura Devi Memorial Centre. L .S. L.S 1 3 F. SOCIAL WELFARE ACTIVITY

1 FMD vaccination and mass drenching Nos. 35 2000 0.7 2 Animal health camp Nos. 15,000 2 0.3 3 Health camps for villagers Nos. 25,000 2 0.5 3 Support for infrastructure and educational aid

to schools Nos 20,000 10 2

4 Promotion of household based IGA Nos. 10,000 20 2 G. PROTECTION AND COMMUNICATION

SYSTEMS

1 Anti poaching patrol and anti poaching operation

Nos. 5,000 40 2

2 Setting up of boundary pillars at the boundary of NDBR (between Buffer and transition zone)

Nos. 413 485 2

3 Provision of camping equipment for staff- tent, sleeping bags and jackets

L S 2

3 Maintenance of wireless sets and communication system

LS LS 37 1

4 Construction of Forest Guard Chauki Nos. 2,50,000 2 5 5 Replacement of old vehicles Nos. 4,00,000 2 8

H. COMPENSATION 1 Compensation to the victims of cattle lifting and

human life loss / injury Families 115 4

I. CAPACITY BUILDING AND AWARENESS 1 Education programme / nature competitions in

schools. Nos. 5,000 10 0.5

2 Exposure visits of staff and villagers in other biosphere reserves and environmental projects

Nos. 30,000 4 1.2

3 Setting up of educative sign boards Nos. 3,000 35 1 4 Capacity building training programmes for the

staff Nos. 30,000 3 0.9

5 Capacity building programmes (trainings,

awareness camps and workshops) for villagers of buffer and transition zone.

Nos. 10,000 6 0.6

6 Development of PRA based Eco Development microplans in 10 village of transition zone.

Nos. 5,000 10 0.5

7 Educational materials and audio-visual tools for Nature Center and Bio diversity conservation center

Digital Camera - - - 0.5 Furnishing - - - 0.7 - - - 0.5 - - - 1

8 Nature camps for school children Nos 10,000 10 1 9 Process Documentation and publication LS 70,000 - 0.7

Lifting of ban on tourism in 1980s and adoption of regulated tourism policy resulted in an increase in tourist influx. The area has been developed such that benefits from the tourism largely go to the local people through their involvement as tourist guides, porters and homestays.

Yet, local people largely perceive the benefits far less than the losses due to enforcements. This perception seems to stem from marginalization of development options preferred by local people. A concern for adaptation and mitigation of global environmental changes like climate change or global warming has so far been neither an explicit concern in biosphere reserve management plans nor the local people inhabiting the buffer zone villages. People-wildlife conflicts

Conservation policies and programmes have resulted in a conspicuous increase in wildlife population

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The policy of treating any killing of wildlife as a legal offence is often disliked by local people as it treats mass killings for game or poaching for income by outsiders at par with rare killings of animals endangering life of local people. There has been an increase in frequency of livestock depredation in the recent past:

Number of livestock and human killings by wild carnivores during 1992-2003 periods

However, the available information/data is too limited to resolve if this increase is because of increase in livestock population or increase in predator population or decrease in wild herbivore population. Again no one has so far speculated or conjectured about increase in livestock depredation frequency as a result of climate change. Protected area management does have a provision of cash compensation for livestock killed by wildlife, but funds available are too low to compensate the losses and procedure too complex and prolonged to be understood clearly by the community.

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Improvement and reinvigoration of traditional practices to protect livestock from wildlife depredation is likely to be a more effective way of resolving man-wildlife conflicts than providing cash compensation in developing countries. 1.6. Agriculture-natural ecosystems-livelihood linkages Rainfed agriculture on outward sloping or bench terraces is the predominant form of agricultural land use. Only 8 % of total cultivated land in the reserve is irrigated (village Malari). At lower elevation two crops, one during rainy/summer season and other during the winter season, can be harvested in a year but tradition is to fallow a field during one winter season over a 2-year-period. In higher elevation villages, only one crop is harvested from a field in year (Nautiyal et al. 2003). The farmers traditionally grew 10 – 12 staple food crops together in a year, a food system locally known as ‘Barahnaja (laterally meaning growing 12 staple food crops in a year or a large number of food crops cultivated together during a cropping season )’. Medicinal plants viz. Arnebia benthamii, Sellinum wallichianum, Angelica glauca, Pleurospermum anglecoides, Berginia ciliata, Allium strachei, Sausuria costus and Allium humile are also cultivated but on a very small scale in higher elevation villages. A variety of horticultural (apple, apricot and walnut) and agro forestry trees are maintained while a huge variety of vegetables are grown in kitchen gardens (Nautiyal et al., 2003).

Chemical fertilizers are applied only by some farmers, that too only to potato crop, at high altitudes. Farmyard manure (FYM) is prepared by the women folk and input rates vary depending on land/livestock holdings and availability of forest leaf litter (FYM is a mixture of forest leaf litter constituting the bedding material and livestock excreta). FYM having oak leaves is considered to be of better quality compared to that containing pine/conifer leaves/needles. In high altitude villages, people prefer most the leaves of Juglans regia, Abies pindraw, Aesculus indica and Acer ceasium while of Oak, Lyonia, Rhododendron and Litsea at lower elevation.

Despite small holdings, crop diversity is quite high, more so in rainfed agroecosystems. High levels of crop yields (e.g., 14 t of potato per ha) and food sufficiency in many villages testify the potential of indigenous organic farming system. Perilla frutescence is a crop which, because of its stringent order, is believed to repel some wild mammal pests. Mustard is also believed to repel wild animals but not as effectively as P. frutescence and Amaranth and buckwheat are least preferred by wild hebivoures.

Claimed and disbursed amounts of compensation

0200000400000600000800000

10000001200000140000016000001800000

1992 1993 1994 1995 2001 2002 2003

Am

ont (

Rs)

Claimed amount Disbursed amount

Direct benefits are the major descriptors of farm trees in indigenous knowledge, though tree species differ in terms of their suitability as perching sites for birds and monkeys, litter quality, nutrient cycling and shading of crops. Contributions of trees in soil conservation and suppression of pests are neither perceived by farmers nor substantiated from scientific studies. Maintenance of multipurpose trees in farm land is often a response to compensate for scarcity of NTFPs in timber species dominated forests around settlements (Nautiyal et al., 1998).

Pests figure as the last concern of traditional farmers, risks arising from the poor land/soil quality being the most important concern followed by those associated with human labour input: Concern of risks related to loss of crop yields due to pests and other factors as reported by farmers. Values of % responses for a given degree of risk (n = 70; Rao et al., unpublished). Risks due to Magnitude of concern

High Low Land and soil quality 100 0 Availability of labour at proper time 35 65 Availability of seeds of desired quality 85 15 Availability of manure of better quality in sufficient amount 90 10 Climatic uncertainty 100 0 Insects and diseases 80 20 Weeds 10 90 Wild large mammals and birds 60 40

Monkeys, porcupine and wild boar among large mammals, partridge among birds, white grubs and stem borer of amaranth among insects draw a high level of farmers’ concern (Table 7). In high altitude villages where crop diversity and management practices have not changed much with time, large scale damage to amaranth crop caused by insect Hymenia recurvalis is a recent phenomena. Farmers attribute this to global warming. Application of partly decomposed manure is considered to be responsible for promoting all insect pests, diseases and weeds..

Local concerns for different pests and indigenous responses to reduce damage

Kind of pest Degree of concern

Responses to reduce damage

Monkeys for all crops, specially winter crops (upto 2000 m), bear in higher altitudes (2000-2400 m), and porcupine and wild boar (damage more due to trampling) all crops and all altitudes

Very high Physical impediments to the pest, keeping watchman and dogs, lighting fire and putting scare-crow/effigies to repel pests

Birds for legumes (early stages of legume growth – they eat cotyledons) at lower elevation and temperate fruits at higher elevations

Very high Keeping watchman to repel pests by making loud voices/sounds, and putting scare-crow to repel pests

White grubs for all summer crops at lower altitudes

Very high Proper composting of manure

Stem borer in amaranth at higher altitude

Very high Crop diversification

Fungal disease in potato at lower elevations and irrigated conditions

Very high Crop diversification and rotation, removal and burning of infested plants

Caterpillar infestation in legumes at the flowering and fruiting stage at lower elevations

Very high Crop diversification

Post harvest fungal and insect damaging pulses except Glycine max, a crop which not at all damaged

Very high Frequent sun-drying and smoking

Insect attack (stem borer and leaf folder) in rice in irrigated agriculture

Very high Crop diversification

Smut of cereals Very high Crop diversification

Fungal disease in potato at lower elevations in rainfed conditions

Moderate Crop diversification/ crop rotation, removal and burning of infested plants

Ants at the time of sowing in rainfed agriculture

Moderate None

Other fungal and bacterial diseases Negligible None Weeds in summer cereals and millets Very high Manual intensive weeding Weeds in legume crops Negligible Manual casual weeding

Farmers understand that the conservation policies and programmes have helped increase in populations of wild boar (Sus scrofa), bear (Selenarctos thibetanus), musk deer (Moschus chrusogaster), porcupine (Hystrix indica), monkey (Presbytes entellus) and partridge (Alectoris chukor) and this increase has led to higher levels of crop depredation, often as high as 50% of total economic yield. They expect adequate cash compensation from reserve authorities but the policy provides for some compensation for depredation of livestock and human life but not for crops- a point of people-conservation conflict (Rao et al., 2002).

Though there is no perceptible change in cropping intensity and area under agriculture, crop diversity and husbandry practices have dramatically changed. Cultivation of Echinochloa frumentacea, Glycine max, Setaria italica, Panicum miliaceum and Pennisetum typhoides at lower altitudes and Hordeum vulgare, Hordeum himalayense and Pisum arvense at higher altitudes have been replaced by cash crops Solanum tuberosum (potato) and Phaseolus spp to a significant extent. Expansion of potato with poor fodder value imply lesser production of fodder from private farms and thereby more use pressure on forests. Further, soil erosion from potato fields could be 6-8 times higher than that from traditional staple food crops despite of 2-4 times higher manure input in the former as compared to the latter. Larger quantities of manure input implies more removal of litter from forests and hence risks of deterioration in forest ecosystem services. A change such as cultivation of medicinal plants (which used to be harvested from the wild and many of which are recognized as rare and endangered species), an indigenous knowledge based response, falls in line with the goal of conservation. Scientific interventions towards improvement in traditional organic manure preparation and application and, soil-crop management practices could partly overcome the environmentally unsound practices (Sen et al., 1997; Maikhuri et al., 2000; Semwal et al., 2004).

Major crop systems (food grains and potatoes) are the most intensive system, with total energy inputs being 1.5- and 6.7-times higher compared to minor land uses viz., kitchen garden and medicinal plant systems, respectively. Energy outputs from major food crop system were 2-9-times higher compared to minor land uses. Monetary efficiency in terms of output/input ratio, however, was higher in medicinal plant cultivation system and kichen garden compared to major food crop system. Comparative energy and monetary budgeting (MJ/ha/yr) of main land use, kitchen garden and medicinal and aromatic plants cultivation. Values with in parentheses are monetary equivalent (Rs) and all values represent mean of the two study villages.

Input/Output Major crop systems Minor crop

system-kitchen garden

Minor crop system-medicinal plant

cultivation Input Seed 2506 (1145) 46.8 (180.0) 115 (387) Human labour 696 (1977) 208 (623) 592 (1915) Animal labour 1712 (295) - - Farmyard manure 21789 (3026) 17995 (2499) 3265(550) Total input 26653 (6443) 18249 (3302) 3972 (2852) Output A. Agronomic yield 44975 (19562) 40658 (18492) 8536 (28805) B. Crop by product 34846 (3733) - - C. Green grasses 1013 (388) - Total output 80834 (23683) 40658 (18492) 8536 (28805) Output/input ratio A 1.68 (3.0) 2.2 (5.6) 2.1 (10.0) A+B+C 3.0 (3.6)

Crop by-products and fodder from natural forests/meadows are the inexpensive inputs into the animal husbandry subsystem, except for horses/mules that are fed with food grains along with crop residues

during stall feeding. Sheep and goat exhibited relatively higher monetary efficiency ratio than other animals. Energy (MJ) and monetary (Rs) inputs, outputs and output/input ratio for rearing of each unit of livestock in study villages of the buffer zone of NDBR. Values within parentheses are monetary equivalents (Rs). ___________________________________________________________________ Category of livestock Energy input Energy output Output/input ratio ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cow 13154 (1530) 1913 (6672) 0.14 (4.3) Bullock 11120 (1290) 7244 (1200) 0.55 (0.93) Horse and mule 30339 (5053) 13538 (25550) 0.60 (5.03) Sheep 9906 (54.25) 422 (507.25) 0.042 (9.3) Goat 9906 (56.25) 504 (528.75) 0.050 (9.4) ____________________________________________________________________ 1.7. Traditional water management and changes therein

Traditionally, local people depended on sub-surface water and small rainfed rivulets and this dependency necessitated forest conservation in headwater regions. People rarely used water from main snowfed rivers for two reasons: (a) water flow rate is too fast to be managed by indigenous technology and (b) low temperature and high concentration of suspended load in snowfed river water are not appropriate for potable or irrigation purposes. However, the Malari village is an exception in that despite its location at higher altitudes (3000 m amsl.), crops are irrigated by water from a snowfed river. Unlike other villages, Malari experiences quite a dry climate because of rain shadow effect. The traditional systems centered around minimum energy or material inputs for purification, storage and canalization together with minimal interference with natural hydrological processes have weakened, and altogether disappeared in many cases, after government treated supply of irrigation/drinking water as one of its services to people. However, the introduced supply systems could not last long because of their high costs and also because of hydrological changes. While deforestation and conversion of oak forests to pine forests have been put forth as the cause a trend of drying up of springs, direct evidence in support of this conclusion is lacking.

2. Characterization of stress due to global (including climate) change

Farmers observe climatic conditions embedded in socio-ecological system covering a small area around them unlike scientific worldview of treating them a distinct component of environment at a regional/global scale. Indigenous knowledge would indeed supplement/complement rather than replace scientific knowledge about climate change (Holling 2001; van Aalst et al., 2008; Byg and Salick, 2009; Saxena et al., 2003, 2010). Climate change attributes s drawn from anlaysis of people’s perceptions in Indian central Himalayan region (based on Saxena et al, 2003, 2010).

Kind of climate change

Evidence Response Changes interacting with climate

change

Decline in snowfall/rainfall

• Decline in snow-covered area around clearly visible peaks from long distances and recession of Satopanth

• Decline in transhumant population as poor winter precipitation reduces fodder productivity as well as quality (This response could also be driven by policies discouraging

• Adoption of policies discouraging transhumance/nomadism

• Cultural detachment from transhumance/nomadism

and Dunagiri glaciers close to alpine pastures

• Decrease in depth and persistence of snow around high altitude settlements ( Malari, Gamsali, Niti, and Dunagiri: 3,000-3,600 masl)

• Decline in water resources used by livestock, particularly in several alpine pastures,

• Increase in frequency and intensity of damage to shoots of Betula utilis (growing in association with Abies pindrow), Rhododendron campanulatum, and Taxus baccata in 3,300 to 3,600 masl elevation zone by insects

• Decline in apple yield as it needs proper chilling during winters for proper fruit yield

transhumance/nomadism and indigenous socio-cultural forces driving people to adopt settled life)

• Replacement of apple by annual cash crops like pea, tomato, cauliflower, chilly and cabbage under rainfed conditions in higher altitudes and irrigated conditions in lower altitudes

among traditional people • Increase in demand of cash

crops with comparative advantages in the hills within

the region as result increase in tourist influx as well as in adjoining plains as a result of decline in agricultural land use in the plains

• Supply of staple food on subsidized price by the government

• Emergence of new livelihood opportunities arising from globalization,

Decline in rainfall during March-May

• Decline in yield of Kharif crops due to large scale mortality and/or poor growth in the initial stage of crop growth

• Abandonment of crops e.g., Panicum miliaceum, a crop that matures over a 3-month period (April-June) but performs poorly if summer rainfall is extremely scanty.

• Casual management of traditional staple food crops grown during rainy season

• Replacement of Amaranthus paniculatus by cauliflower, cabbage and potato

• Indigenous innovations of agricultural systems rendering high labor productivity in terms of net profits, e.g., bush fallow agriculture

• Socio-economic-cultural-policy factors invoking an understanding

• that millet millets are ‘coarse food’ and millet cultivation/consumption

• an indictor of poverty • Increase in demand of cash

crops with comparative advantages in the hills within

the region as result increase in tourist influx as well as in adjoining plains as a result of decline in agricultural land use in the plains

Shift in peak time of monsoon rainfall from July/Augus to August/September t

• Increase in frequency of crop damage due to high rainfall at the time of crop maturity

• Increase in frequency of massive landslides and blocking of roads during August-September

•

• Search for off-farm employment opportunities

• People’s demands for compensation/insurance of life and property lost due to high monsoon rainfall events

• Socio-economic-cultural-factors invoking an understanding that

off-farm means of livelihood were more secured/appropriate t than farm based means of livelihood

Shift in winter precipitation timing from December/January to January/February and decline in intensity of snow fall

• Shift in ploughing/sowing of winter crops (wheat, barley, naked barley and mustard) from November to December

• • Decline in barley and

wheat yields but insignificant changes in black pea (water requirement of black pea is substantially lower compared to wheat and barley)

• Replacement of traditional cultivars of wheat and mustard maturing over longer periods of time by high yielding varieties maturing over shorter periods of time

• replacement of barley by cash crop green pea

• Increase in demand of cash crops with comparative advantages in the hills within

the region as result increase in tourist influx as well as in adjoining plains as a result of decline in agricultural land use in the plains

• Supply of staple food on subsidized price by the government

• Emergence of new livelihood opportunities arising from globalization,

Increase in instances of cloud burst

• Increase in frequency of occurrence of large scale losses of human life and property due heavy downpour over a short period of time

• People’s demands for compensation/insurance of life and property lost due to high monsoon rainfall events

Warming • Performance of crops (pea, potato, cabbage and cauliflower) in high altitude regions where they were not successful before 20-30 years

• Replacement of traditional staple food crops by cash crops pea, potato, cabbage and cauliflower

• Increase in demand of cash crops with comparative advantages in the hills within

the region as a result increase in tourist influx as well as in adjoining plains. Supply of staple food on subsidized price by the government Emergence of new livelihood opportunities arising from globalization,

Climate change ( all components of climate as understood by the farmers: temperature, precipitation, cloud cover, wind velocity)

• Erratic fruit setting in summer legumes grown in 1,000- 2,000 masl zone

• Diseases such as rust and blight are common in cereals and potato crops, and legumes such as Phaseolus spp infested by soil- borne insects Coleoptera sp

• Early flowering, leafing and fruiting (15-30 days before the timings observed before 20-30 years) of

• Reduction in area under traditional legume/pulse crops

• Stress on off-farm income

• Emergence of new off-farm income opportunities

medicinal and aromatic plants (i.e., Rhododendron arboretum, Prunus cerasoides, Allium stracheyi, A. humile, Betula utilis, Meconopsis aculeata, and Saussurea obvallata) and wild edible fruit yielding species (i.e., Rebis orientale, Rosa webbiana, and R. sericea)

Farmers are concerned more with the impacts of and adaptation to climate change rather than

the nature/degree of this change and its mitigation. They can reconstruct the past scenarios over a time span within the range of their memory (around 50-70 years) (Showers, 1996) in terms of indigenous climate change criteria and indicators. As a possibility of farmers, consciously or unconsciously, hiding or providing inaccurate information can not be ruled out (Omiti et al., 1999), a careful strategy of elucidating correct information from farmers/cross-checking of observations reported by farmers is crucial. One can probe farmers to identify nature, magnitudes and impacts of climate change or to list all changes around them first and then to identify the rates, driving factors and impacts of these changes. Majority of Himalayan farmers accept warming but are unable to expresss it in quantitative terms. They conclude warming based on a trend of a decline: (i) in area and duration of snow around them and (ii) in time and energy put in to clear paths during snowfall period. Farmers are unable to articulate climate features and processes like epochal changes, teleconnections between El Nino and La Nina and local climate and frequency of occurrence of extreme events, operating at a time scale outside the range of their memory and spatial scale outside the range of their observation capacity. They distinguish extreme events (flood and drought) based on catastrophic damage to livelihood rather than in the conventional scientific terms of standardized rainfall being lower or higher than the one.

By ‘good climate year’ farmers in Garhwal Himalaya mean sporadic low rainfall events during March-May, peak monsoon rainfall during July-August, moderate rainfall/heavy snowfall during December-January and absence of cloud burst events, with highest degree of uncertainty attached to the time of onset of monsoon and occurrence of abnormally high rainfall events. Thus, farmers view precipitation to be more crucial dimension of climate than temperature. Farmers expressed a trend of increase in frequency of occurrence of bad climate years in terms of an increase in frequency of abnormally high precipitation events in at elevations > 1500 m, abnormally low precipitation events in 500-1500 m zone and both kinds of abnormalities in the foot hill zone, but were unable pinpoint the point of origin or culmination of such trends. People believe drought, excessive rainfall/flood, hail storm and cloud burst as unpredictable and unavoidable events determined by the supernatural powers. Prayers and rituals offered for avoiding unfavorable climates, though undoubtedly superstitious, seem to have fostered evolution of ecosystem management practices and institutions enabling minimal possible damage due to and fast recovery after catastrophic damages. Farmers consider climate change a factor not as crucial as other factors like market forces and environment and development policies/programmes in determining natural, social, physical and financial capital and livelihoods, suggesting the need of integrating climate change issues with other environment and livelihood issues.

3. Climate, agrobiodiversity, food security and livelihoods

Cropping patterns in the Himalaya are built around two seasons: the monsoon/rainy season and the winter season. With a belief of impossibility of extremely unfavourable climate in both crop seasons of a year (farmers recalled the most recent failure of both crops only in 1966-67 and that too only in a few high elevation villages). To cop such extreme events, farmers in highly inaccessible locations deprived of any significant government support tend to keep a stock of staple food (meeting their needs for a maximum period of 6 months), supplement domesticated crop based food with wild staple food (dried fruits of Pyrus pashia and Aesculus indica) and earn income from sale of non-timber forest products and wage labour in far off places. In more accessible areas where a quota of staple food at subsidized price is being supplied to farmers since 1970s, farmers have been moving away from local produce/natural resource based livelihood security (Semwal et al., 2004; Singh et al., 2008).

Farmers view two major risks to crops: the risks arising from (a) the uncertainty of monsoon rainfall and (b) cultivating distant fields that demand huge labor and time spent in travel/transport. Maintenance of a heterogeneous village landscape is a reflection of indigenous ways of risk management: the rainfed crop agroecosystem is characterized by both climatic and distance related risks, rainfed agroforestry systems by only climatic risks, the irrigated crop system by only distance related risk and the homegarden system by neither of the two risks (Singh et al., 2008). Within an agroecosystem type, farmers cope risks by maintaining a large variety of crops/cultivars adapted to varied climate and soil fertility regimes (Bardsley, 2003):. Farmers’ decision making on cropping pattern during rainy season in rainfed agroforestry system (based on Singh et al., 2008).

Plowing of fields pre-determined for millets in March/April

Sowing of Muatha/Bhagan cultivars of barnyard millet and Jhalarya/Chauras cultivars of fingermillet as pure crops in April/May

Onset of monsoonNormal (June) Delayed

Plowing of remaining fields and sowing of maize in some

fields

Plowing of all fields and sowing of all cultivars of

millets

Crop growth till 20 days of sowing

Normal Poor

Sowing of seeds of soybean in maize fields and seeds of Mungerikuad cultivar of

fingermillet in fields without maize

Fresh plowing of all fields and sowing of Mungerikuad cultivar of

fingermillet

Jhaidu and Khimanand ki Ghodi are local rice cultivars able to withstand hail storms while Rekher or Syal Satti and Misri and Thangya varities of wheat can survive heavy snow fall occurs during early stages of crop growth.

Farmers classify crops in three groups based on their responses to various stresses/risks and

economic values : (a) economically more-valuable crops with poor performance under extreme rainfall regimes, low soil fertility levels and weed abundance: maize, soybean, paddy, wheat, lentil, potato, buckwheat, amaranths and green vegetable, (b) economically less-valuable crops with ability to perform under unfavorable climatic conditions, low soil fertility levels and weed abundance: fingermillet, barnyard millet and barley, and (c) economically more-valuable crops with ability to perform under unfavorable climatic conditions, soil stresses and weed abundance: sesame, cowpea,

black pea (Pisum arvense), horsegram and pigeon pea. Though many of farmers’ perceptions about crop-environment relations are substantiated by scientific evidences (Maikhuri et al., 1996; Singh et al., 1997; Sherchan et al., 1999; Pilbeam et al., 2000; Singh et al., 2008), there is a need of undertaking long term comprehensive programs for validation and enhancement of local knowledge. A traditional crop like Panicum miliaceum can mature over a short period of two months. Increasing the area under this crop had been a common way of coping extreme unfavourable climate conditions. Such traditional ways of using agrobiodiversity to climate variability and extremes are fading under the influence of government welfare policies and ignorance of potentialieis of indigenous practices in conventional scientific research on climate change adaptation.

Conversion of rainfed to irrigated farming reduces the risks of climatic uncertainty and

improves productivity (Bhatnagar et al., 1996; Maikhuri et al., 1997) but has not progressed much for two reasons. First, farmers face a shortage of manure (due to scarcity of forest resources) required for performance of irrigated crops and are unable to afford chemical fertilizers. Second, labor productivity in irrigated crop system is lower than other traditional land uses like homegardens. Highly productive indigenous irrigated farming systems do exist in situations where rainfed crops fail to survive (e.g., cold desert in the north-western Himalaya), when population pressure exceeds the carrying capacity of rainfed agriculture or when farmers do not have any source of income other than irrigated crops (Rao and Saxena, 1994; Chandrasekhar et al., 2007).

A trend of replacement of traditional staple food/fodder crops by cash crops is progressing

fast since last couple of decades more because of a socio-cultural transformation from subsistence to market economy, often pushed by development programmes (subsidy on food, modern agricultural inputs and maintenance of a marketing system), than climate change (Singh et al., 1997; Semwal et al., 2004; Laishram et al., 2009). Farmlands in the Himalaya are heavily dependent on forests for manure and livestock feed and farmers tend to apply higher levels of inputs available in limited quantities to the perceived low risk agroecosystems as compared to the more risky ones (Carter and Murwira, 1995). The ongoing changes in cropping patterns are such that manure input rates have increased along with an increase in soil erosion rates but fodder production from farmland has decreased, which in turn has aggravated the threats to forest ecosystem functions emanating from higher intensities of litter removal and grazing in forests (Sen et al., 1997; Maikhuri et al., 2000). The tendency for maximisation of income has marginalised the traditional values attached to crop-environment compatibility, exchange of crop produce based on environmental opportunities/constraints of growing different crops and maintenance of high levels of crop/cultivar/agroecosystem diversity as means of coping environmental uncertainties. Farmers, after gaining proper understanding about market risks and uncertainties, tend to to grow cash crops to an extent that their traditional food security system is least disturbed (Maikhuri et al., 2000; Semwal et al., 2004). Pests and diseases are uncommon in extreme cold arid regions, indicating a possibility of higher risks of crop damage in a warmer climate (Saxena et al., 2010). .3.1 Forest biodiversity-agrobiodiversity-climate change linkages

Forests and alpine meadows provide fodder and manure, protect crops from wildlife and catastrophic surface water flows and recharge springs (the source of drinking water) to local people, apart from their global environmental services, such as regional hydrological balance, soil and biodiversity conservation and carbon sequestration. Climate change raises a question mark on sustainability of these services in future. Forest resource use regimes, which do not pose any threat to both global and local benefits, have neither been worked out in scientific terms nor in the indigenous knowledge system. A religious belief that natural hazards/catastrophic events follow if livelihood is derived from timber trade livelihood and agricultural land use is expanded for economic prosperity together with social sanction for earning income from sale of non-timber forest products only to economically weaker families are the key elements of social capital favoring sustainable use of natural resources. People value forests most for availability of inputs required for sustaining agricultural production, health and the insurance it provides from the uncertainties of environmental extremes (Saxena et al., 2003; Singh et al., 2008).

Assumed and projected scenarios for the state of natural resources and socio-economic conditions of Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve for 2019-2029 period (Based on the existing knowledge on environmental and socio-economic changes in and around NDBR, the scenarios for the period till 2029 are given here. Land use-land cover changes, driving factors, ecological/socio-economic implications and projected scenarios as identified from participatory discussions and research) Land use-land cover changes

Cause of the change Comments/explanations Assumed and projected scenarios till 2029

Agricultural land use dynamics – landscape perspective Abandonment of agricultural land use/less attention to optimal use of agricultural land in

1. Increasing preferences to urban life style and emergence of new opportunities of securing livelihood from non-farm sector, e.g., national rural employment guarantee scheme assuring wages for at least 100 days in a year to one person from a family within village, employment in ecotourism promoted by the government around the village and a quota of jobs in hydroelectricity projects around the reserve and in government jobs to ethnic minorities/local people in the country

2. Employment of local people in catchment area treatment activities funded by hydropower agencies

3. Collapse of traditional sharecropping systems due to lack of their recognition/appreciation in formal policies

4. Lack of any incentive for optimal or penalty for suboptimal use of agricultural land in the policies

5. Increased outmigration of nuclear families in place of earlier practice only youngmen moving out for employment

6. Financial support to wool based cottage industries

7. Increased losses due to crop and livestock

There are no instances of land abandonment due to climate change, weed infestation, land degradation, depletion of soil fertility and drying up of water resources.

Area under abandoned agriculture is likely to increase

depredation by wildlife and lack of attractive insurance/compensation policies

Conversion of forest/scrub land to agriculture

1. Annual cash crop cultivation more profitable than NTFPs

2. Limited capacities of institutions responsible for protection and restoration of government/community forest/scrub lands

3. Restrictions on income from forest resources to local communities discouraging people’s initiatives of protection and restoration of degraded lands

There are no instances of clearing of forests for agriculture. These are some areas with a legal status of forest land but devoid of any tree cover that have been put to agricultural land use

There is no further scope of expansion of agricultural land use.

Fragmentation of land holdings

1. Social change favoring preference for nuclear families

2. Lack of any policy incentive for avoiding land fragmentation

In some communities in the Himalaya, such as Spitians, land fragmentation is avoided as land property is inherited to the eldest son, with all other sons becoming monks (Lamas)

Fragmentation of land holdings is likely to continue.

Changes in agrobiodivesity and agroecosystem management Replacement of traditional staple crops by cash crops potato, kidney bean and pea

1. Socio-cultural forces favouring a change from subsistence to market economy

2. Availability of staple food grains at subsidized price from public distribution system

3. Lack of policies ensuring income to farmers from marketing of traditional crops or economic incentives for conservation of traditional crop genetic diversity

The government fixes minimum support price for food grains like wheat and rice grown on a large scale in the alluvial plains and has established infrastructural facilities for promoting marketing of these crops. Such a government supported marketing system has not been developed in the hills. There has been some efforts by the Reserve authorities to provide vehicles for transport of local produce to nearby markets but this facility at present is poorly organized due to limitiations of funds Some contracts for organically produced

Increased instances of damage of potato crop due to pests and diseases point to a possible decline in area under this crop.

millets from developed countires like Japan in the last few years might rejuvenate traditional cropping systems.

Cultivation of new crops, e.g., cabbage around Narayankuti and cauliflower and potato around Khaljhuni (, pea and apple in Spiti valley)

Global warming New crops are confined to isolated localities as such endeavours are always tried first by entrepreneurs who are always few in numbers.

With realization of the risks associated with dependence on a few cash crops, farmers are likely to diversify in future.

Cultivation of cash crops (tomato and beans) in irrigated lands

1. Degeneration of traditions restricting hiring labour for farming or collection of forest resources from outside the village

2. Outmigration of local people and immigration of Nepalese farmers skilled in vegetable cultivation and cheap labor due to socio-political instability in Nepal since last few years

3. Increase in demand of non-traditional food items with comparative advantages in the hills due to increase in influx of tourists

4. Lack of policies promoting consumption of traditional food by tourists

5. Availability of cheap labour from Nepalese people because of socio-political instability in Nepal

Inmigrant farmers use huge amounts of agrochemicals to maximize their profits and are not much concerned about soil/agroecosystem health as they get contracts of farming only for 2-3 years.

Indigenous farmers are realizing the negative impacts of use of agrochemicals in huge quantities by the migrant farmers. Also, government has started providing incentives for organic farming since last few years. Agrochemical use in future is likely to decline.

Cultivation of medicinal species

6. Restrictions of collection from the wild specified in protected area management plans

7. Increasing demands for herbal medicines

Though local people could innovate cultivation protocols of several medicinal species, their capacity to earn income from this innovation is remains very limited because of their understanding of

With establishment of National and state Medicinal Plant Boards, a Medicinal Plant Research Institute in the vicinity of the Reserve, policy stress on organic

market demand and dynamics. An instiution for improved cultivation packages and marketing has been established both at the state and national level, yet the delivery remains a little poor.

farming and increasing demands for herbal medicine, this land use is likely to expand in future.

Cultivation of fodder crops (alfa-alfa)

1. Abandonment of nomadic pastoralism/transhumance by local communities

2. Requirement of a settled property for availing benefits from development aid provided by the government

Cultivation of fodder plants is confined to only a few farmers.

A trend of decline in livestock population suggests a low probability of such a change in and around the Reserve.

Increase in intensity and frequency of damage to amaranths caused by Hymenia rickervalis Erratic fruit setting in summer legumes grown in 1,000- 2,000 masl zone Early flowering, fruiting and maturity of winter crops, particularly wheat and mustard

Climate change and variability

Changes in land use-land cover might also be responsible for more severe attack by Hymenia rickervalis, e.g., the population of this moth might have increased or of its predator declined because of changes in cropping patterns and crop management practices. Both people and scientists seem to identify climate change as a factor driving a process or phenomenon when they are unable to identify any other factor driving the concerned change. People did mention that instead of persistent long term change, damage to crop by this insect could be a short-term phenomenon arising from climatic variability.

Many farmers believe that they are presently facing to an unfavourable phase of climatic variability rather than a consistent long term climate change trend. About 20% of these farmers were confident about indigenous innovations that would overcome any food problem in future.

Increase in frequency and intensity of damage to potato caused by pests and pathogens

1. Climate change 2. Persistence of mono-

cropping 3. Use of immature FYM

A trend of crop diversification is likely to overcome the losses due to damage to potato crop.

Increase in multipurpose tree cover in farmlands

Tree planting in abandoned agricultural lands by absentee landlords

Absentee landlords do not have any risk of loosing their land rights and are able to get some monetary benefits by selling NTFPs with

This change implies land use-land cover changes favouring carbon sequestration.

negligible labour input. Reduction in apple tree cover

Climate change leading to reduction in apple productivity and increase in frequency and intensity of pest and pathogen attack on apple

Increase in pest/pathogen attack could also be related to an imbalance in prey-predator/parasitoid populations due to land use-land cover changes

A trend of fruit tree diversification or replacement of fruit trees by multipurpose trees is likely to overcome the losses due to damage to apples.

Increase in loss of crop yields due to depredation by birds, monkeys, boar and porcupine

1. Increase in wildlife population as a result of legal protection of the area (restoration of habitats) and penalties for killing of wildlife

2. Changed agricultural land uses attract wildlife more than the traditional land uses

3. Degeneration of traditional ways and means of keeping the wildlife away from the main settlements – use of fire, maintaining objects that scare wildlife

Climate change could be also be a reason for increased crop depredation but was not stated by the people.

It is very uncertain to make any predictions about this aspect.

Conversion of irrigated to rainfed farming

1. Inefficiency of water delivery due to poor management of irrigation system

2. Labour scarcity as a result of outmigration of males

Reduced flow in the streams as a result of warming or reduction in precipitation was not identified as a cause of conversion of irrigated to rainfed farming.

Not likely within the Reserve.

Conversion of rainfed to irrigated farming

1. Availability of government aid for establishment of small scale irrigation systems

2. Potential economic benefits from cash crops grown at lower elevations

3. Arid conditions at higher altitudes under rainshadow effect

Availability of irrigation water around settlements as a result of higher rates of melting of glaciers was not stated as a reason for establishing irrigation system by the people.

Not likely within the Reserve as low temperature and not water stress is the most limiting factor.

Use of vermicompost

1. Government grants available for establishing vermicompost technologies

2. Profits to farmers ensured from procurement by government agencies of vermicompost from farmers

3. Increasing demand for

Use of vermicompost is likely to expand with increase in demand for organic food and lower degree of crop losses due to pests/pathogens.

organic food/policies Use of beneficial microbes/biofertilizers

1. Policies providing subsidy for biofertilizers

2. Increasing demand for organic food/policies encouraging organic farming

Use of biofertilizers is likely to expand with increase in demands for organic food and lower degree of crop losses due to pests/pathogens

Use of chemical fertilizers

Financial incentives by IFFCO (Indian Farmers Fertilizer Cooperative Limited): establishment of model villages

Only a few farmers, usually the rich ones, use chemical fertilizers and other modern inputs provided free of cost by IFFCO for a maximum period of 5 years. After withdrawal of aid/subsidy, local farmers rarely apply chemical fertilizers.

Unlikely within the reserve

Inmigration of many non-native families

1. Emergence of occupations disliked by local people, e.g., sanitary work in urban areas

2. Lack of local capacity to supply resources/services required by tourists

With a stable biosphere reserve management plan, the present population level is likely to be stabilized.

Forests and wildlife Upward movement of species/communities/ecosystems

Climate change/warming Only a few individuals (8% of interviewed people) in higher elevations identified this change.

Increase in tree cover in both agricultural land and degraded/depleted forest land

Reduction in pressure on forests due to decrease in livestock population and abandonment of agricultural land use Funding for catchment area treatment provided by hydropower agencies Scholarships to students with a bent of mind for environmental conservation and restoration Funding for ecodevelopment from World Bank project in some village

If warming occurs in future, tree cover is likely to increase further.

4. Conclusions: Climate change mitigation and adaptation strategic actions: focusing on positive dimensions indigenous knowledge

Our own experiences and research carried out in the region since last twenty years suggest a stability in land use-land cover and lack of any adverse impacts of global environmental change such as biological invasion, forest/land degradation, loss of forest ecosystem goods and services, food insecurity, higher rates of infant mortality, increase in frequency of human or livestock diseases or shortening of human life span. However, likely adverse changes in future cannot be ruled out and hence some pre-emptive actions are required. As a rich biodiversity base would provide a greater variety of adaptations to changing climatic conditions, effective ways and means of biodiversity conservation are urgently needed. 4.1. Protected area management

Protected areas will be able to achieve their stipulated goal only when conservation actions are linked with socio-development of local communities. A number of recent studies do not support the assumption of protected area planners that traditional resource systems (e.g., tourism, low input crop/livestock husbandry) agriculture were not ‘efficient’ (Maikhuri et al., 2000; Rao et al., 2000, 2002, 2003; Semwal et al., 2004; Chandrasekhara et., 2007; Singh et al., 2008). Larger soil organic carbons stocks and biodiversity in traditional homegardens (Singh et al., 2008) do not support the common view of considering forest land use more efficient than farming in terms of carbon sequestration. Rarity of many economic species is often attributed to over-exploitation, though it may also be related to climate change. Traditional resource uses need to be scientifically evaluated and conservation strategy be built on the indigenous knowledge completed/supplemented by scientific knowledge and institutional support. The new opportunities such as REDD+ , CDM and Social Corportate Responsibility (SCR) are neither understood by the Reserve officials nor the people. Awareness of new opportunities and challenges should be created at all levels. Much of the protected area management efforts are centered around aboveground biodiversity. There is a need of looking at both aboveground and belowground organisms in a holistic perspective (Bhadauria et al., 2011). 4.2. Conservation of traditional crop diversity

A realization of negative consequences of high yielding varieties, viz., dependency on external agencies for seeds, fertilizers, irrigation and pesticides, drastic yield losses under unfavourable climatic conditions and low input management and lower fodder production compared to traditional varieties, in recent years has rejuvenated local efforts towards agrobiodiversity conservation in Hanval valley of Tihri Garhwal. Such efforts must be followed with scientific analysis of crop/cultivar-environment relationships. There are examples of diversifying agriculture with specialization in crops with comparative advantages in areas like Lahaul and Spiti without any external assistance. Farmer-farmer exchanges need to be promoted. 4.3. Water management

Global warming will aggravate water stress, a factor often limiting crop yields and life quality. The traditional systems centered on minimum inputs for water purification, storage and canalization, minimal interference with natural hydrological processes, and minimal risks of damages likely from high rainfall events were, by and large, were following treatment of water supply as a government service to the people. With experiences of the large scale failure of the new water management system over the last few decades (Rao and Saxena, 1994), innovations in water technology and management systems that can be sustained in the likely global warming scenarios are needed. There are few indigenous innovations on using simple engineering structures to optimize snow accumulation-melting rates in Laddakh region. Such innovative farmers should encouraged to share their experiences elsewhere like the ones inhabilitng high elevations of NDBR.

4.4. Improvement in traditional agroforestry tree management

Traditional farmers usually lop all branches of farm trees during winters when fodder/ fuelwood are scarce in forests. Retention of 25% of branches together with an increase in try tree density in farmland will enhance carbon sequestration in farm lands without any decline in crop yields (Semwal et al., 2002). For further improvement in contribution of traditional land uses to climate change mitigation, there is a need of comparing different species and their interactions in respect of their impacts on crop yields as well as carbon sequestration potential of the system. 4.5. Improvement in traditional soil fertility management

As agriculture is dependent on forests for manure and fodder, reduction in intensity of biomass removal from forests without any threat to agroecosystem functions is crucial for forest conservation. Application of oak litter based manure enables crop yields 15% higher compared to pine residue based manure partly because of higher rates of nitrogen mineralization coupled with better synchronization of nutrient release and crop uptake in the former (Rao et al., 2003). Further research on aboveground-belowground biodiversity interlinkages is needed for sustainable soil fertility/health management. 4.6. Rehabilitation of abandoned agricultural lands and degraded forest lands

Coupling of local concerns with global concerns is crucial for success of any ecorestoration programme. Introduction of ‘nurse species’ or ‘keystone species’ would be the most desired treatment in abandoned agricultural but knowledge of such species is meager. Yet, there is a scope of developing rehabilitation strategies built on indigenous knowledge supplemented/complemented with the scientific knowledge (Maikhuri et al., 1997, 2000 ; Rao et al., 1999, 2003). Though forests of the reserve in terms of canopy cover are not degraded, their ecosystem functions could be substantially enhanced with introduction of appropriate species. 4.7. Establishment of a network of participatory long term ecological research sites

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Acknowledgements We are grateful to the officials of Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve, scientists of Wildlife Institute of

India, local institutions and people for all help during the course of this study.