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Early Warning Unit, CCDM 1 National Agro-meteorological Committee (NAC) Advisory on the 2012 Winter Season Statement from Climate Change and Disaster Management 10 DAFF 2012 21 June 2012 In the light of the seasonal outlook as produced by the South African Weather Service (SAWS) and other centres, the following advisory guidelines are suggested. It is emphasized that these advisories are broad guidelines and should be interpreted considering the local aspects of the region such as soil types, cultural preferences and farming systems. Depending on the particular region, the prioritization of the guidelines will differ. The basic strategy to follow would be to minimize and diversify risk, optimize soil water availability and to manage the renewable resources (rain water and grazing) to uphold sound farming objectives. Long-term mitigation strategies should be considered by implementing techniques to enhance in-field water harvesting by reducing run-off and improving infiltration. Reduced tillage methods are very important in this regard, as is basin tillage, to capture rainwater in the drier areas. The provinces should further simplify, downscale and package the information according to their language preference and if possible use local radio stations and farmers’ days in disseminating the information. I. CURRENT CONDITIONS Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4

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Page 1: National Agro-meteorological Committee (NAC) Advisory on ... · Veld fires were reported in Bojanala District. The dam level has decreased (81% in 2012) as compared to last year (94%

Early Warning Unit, CCDM 1

National Agro-meteorological Committee (NAC) Advisory on the 2012 Winter Season

Statement from Climate Change and Disaster Management 10 DAFF 2012

21 June 2012

In the light of the seasonal outlook as produced by the South African Weather Service (SAWS) and other centres, the following advisory guidelines are suggested. It is emphasized that these advisories are broad guidelines and should be interpreted considering the local aspects of the region such as soil types, cultural preferences and farming systems. Depending on the particular region, the prioritization of the guidelines will differ. The basic strategy to follow would be to minimize and diversify risk, optimize soil water availability and to manage the renewable resources (rain water and grazing) to uphold sound farming objectives. Long-term mitigation strategies should be considered by implementing techniques to enhance in-field water harvesting by reducing run-off and improving infiltration. Reduced tillage methods are very important in this regard, as is basin tillage, to capture rainwater in the drier areas. The provinces should further simplify, downscale and package the information according to their language preference and if possible use local radio stations and farmers’ days in disseminating the information.

I. CURRENT CONDITIONS Figure 1 Figure 2

Figure 3 Figure 4

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Early Warning Unit, CCDM 2

During April (Figure 1) the western half of the country, including winter rainfall areas received near normal rainfall but below normal elsewhere. The month of May (Figure 2) received below normal rainfall over the majority of the country with patches of above normal in the Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal and parts of the Great Karoo. Relief was felt at the beginning of June (Figure 3), over the western half of the country as above normal rainfall fell. The central and eastern parts remained dry. The rainfall from mid-winter 2011 until May 2012 (Figure 4) indicates below normal over much of the country. NDVI difference map for May 2012 compared long-term mean

Wetter conditions towards the end of the summer rainfall season over the western parts of the country and above- average rainfall over some of the south-western parts were responsible for above average vegetation activity over the western and southern parts of the country with below normal activity towards the northeast.

II. CONDITIONS IN THE PROVINCES DURING MAY 2012

Eastern Cape Below normal rainfall was received with patches of above normal. Some areas have good summer crops residues while many have good natural veld reserves to take farmers through the winter. However, poor management of natural grazing veld in communal areas is placing livestock under threat of shortage of food projected to be experienced later in winter to early spring. Cultivated pastures are reportedly in a fair to good state. All areas have reported livestock to be in fair to good condition. There were isolated incidents of sheep attacked by predators in some villages of Mnquma Local Municipality. Furthermore, there were reports on the outbreak of rabies in the Ntabankulu Local Municipality which were later controlled through the intervention of the Veterinary Services personnel. The average dam level was at 81% in 2012 as compared to 77% of 2011 during the same period.

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Early Warning Unit, CCDM 3

Free State The province experience dry conditions, especially in the southern and eastern parts. The general veld and livestock conditions are reasonable to poor in all areas due to less than average rainfall. Incident of rabies were reported in Thabo Mofutsanyane District Municipality and the vaccination campaign to control the spread was done. The level of dams has decreased as compared to the previous year during the same time (83% in 2012; 99% in 2011). Gauteng Below normal rainfall was recorded throughout the province. As a result of the low rainfall and low temperatures the veld condition has deteriorated with regard to vigor, palatability and acceptability. Livestock is in reasonable to poor condition. In the eastern region grazing land and soya were damaged by veldfires, and there was chicks mortality due to an unknown disease but the veterinary service is investigating. Farmers are harvesting some of the winter crops and also preparing for other winter resistant crops. On the other hand frost damaged vegetables in the Midvaal area. The level of dams has decreased as compared to the previous May (90% in 2012; 101% in 2011). KwaZulu-Natal Below normal rainfall was experienced; however a small number of weather stations did report normal to above normal rainfall in some areas. Maximum and minimum temperatures were above normal; nonetheless a few locations around the Drakensburg reported early heavy frosts. Many farmers have reported severely reduced crop yields (mainly maize and soybean) in the drought afflicted areas of UMzinyathi, Amajuba and western Zululand. Irrigated crops and pastures remain in good condition despite water resources in some areas being very low. Livestock is in good to reasonable condition but in some areas it has begun to decline. Veld is in poor condition in drought affected areas as well as parts of northern UMgungundlovu, except in eastern Zululand and Sisonke where it is good. A number of people, including a farmer have died from rabies. However measures are underway to combat the spread of the disease. The average dam level was at 75% in 2012 as compared to 85% of 2011 during the same period. Limpopo In May the province experienced below normal rainfall. Dry conditions have led to deterioration of grazing veld, which resulted in poor livestock condition. Furthermore, there was shortage of water for the livestock. This can be well observed on the dam levels which are 76% in 2012 as compared to 87% in 2011. Mpumalanga Nil report. Northern Cape The province received below normal rainfall and the veld and livestock conditions are reasonable to poor in areas that did not receive enough summer rainfall. Areas in Namakwa region, Brandvlei, Williston and Loeriesfontein experienced very dry conditions. Wheat is in good condition. Runaway fire was reported in Glen Red area of John Taolo Gaetsewe. The dam level has decreased (88% in 2012) as compared to last year (105% in 2011). North West The province experienced dry conditions during the month. Veld conditions are poor due to overstocking mainly in communal areas but farmers have been advised to balance their livestock number with carry capacity. Veld fires were reported in Bojanala District. The dam level has decreased (81% in 2012) as compared to last year (94% in 2011).

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Early Warning Unit, CCDM 4

Western Cape Below normal rains were received except for Murraysburg and Beaufort West regions which received normal to above normal rainfall. Temperatures for both maximums and minimums were less than the corresponding long term figures. Below normal rains persisted in the Touwsrivier, Laingsburg and Prince Albert regions resulting in drought conditions continuing. Poor rains in the Rietbron and Koup-Merweville area could result in the drought area extending to include these regions as the veld did not have sufficient rain to recuperate after the prolonged drought. In the north western region of the West Coast District poor veld conditions resulted in insufficient grazing to livestock, as a result farmers are providing additional feed. The level of dams is 44% in 2012 which is lower compared to the 49% of 2011. Information on level of dams is obtained from the Department of Water Affairs Available: http://www.dwa.gov.za/Hydrology/Weekly/Province.aspx Accessed on 04/06/2012 III. AGRICULTURAL MARKETS

Major grain commodities According to FNB Agri-Weekly both yellow and white maize prices continued to weaken despite a weaker Rand. It is expected that prices will move sideways with limited upward potential until the extent of the local harvest is known. Wheat prices showed some losses on spillover weakness from the international market. It is expected that prices will further go down due to ample supplies globally. Oilseeds traded mixed with soybeans gaining some ground. Oilseeds traded on the JSE ended mixed, with soybeans extending gains on supportive Rand. Domestic prices per Safex (R/t)

Futures prices as at (2012/06/19)

Commodity 2012/06 2012/07 2012/09 2012/12 2013/03

White maize R2002.00/t R2014.00/t R2055.00/t R2100.00/t R2120.00/t

Yellow maize R1975.00/t R1990.00/t R2023.00/t R2065.00/t R2072.00/t

Wheat R2935.00/t R2948.00/t R3000.00/t R2950.00/t R2992.00/t

Sunflower R4715.00/t R4748.00/t R4853.00/t R4986.00/t N/a

Soybeans R4390.00/t R4400.00/t R4435.00/t R4492.00/t R4450.00/t

Sorghum N/a R2695.00/t R2745.00/t N/a N/a

SAGIS Weekly Bulletin: 2012/06/19

Livestock domestic markets According to FNB domestic beef showed losses on limited uptake towards midmonth. It is expected that prices will trade lower in the short term due to weakness in demand. The mutton and lamb market prices ended mixed with mutton extending gains on tight volumes. It is expected

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Early Warning Unit, CCDM 5

that the lamb and mutton market will come under pressure due to moderation in demand. The pork market improved but it is expected that prices will move sideways with limited upward potential due to subdue demand. The broiler market lost ground on the back of weak demand and abundant supplies. Prices are expected to remain under pressure with limited upward potential.

Producer prices for selected livestock commodities

Beef

Mutton

Pork

Poultry

Open market: Class A / Porker / Fresh whole birds (R/kg) 26.52

43.96 18.30 18.15

Open market: Class C / Baconer / Frozen whole birds (R/kg) 22.02 32.21 15.75 14.56

Contract: A2/A3* / Baconer/ IQF (*includes fifth quarter)

(R/kg)

26.71 45.63 17.20 11.77

Import parity price (R/kg) 19.67 26.83 16.90 14.11

Weaner Calves / Feeder Lambs (R/kg) 15.34 22.33

FNB AgriCommodities: 2012/06/08 NB: Users are advised that these are just indicative prices therefore it is imperative that clients investigate their own individual basis value when marketing their products (livestock and grain). IV. SADC REGION The May FEWS NET report states that the monitoring and assessment reports indicate a general improvement in food security across most of the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) region coinciding with the end of the lean season (March/April). Food supplies have improved as seasonal crops and early maize harvests become increasingly available on farms and in local markets. Food security has been particularly enhanced in areas where crop production benefited from favorable rainfall performance, and where minimal exposure to

production shocks was experienced. Increased on‐farm food availability has eased pressure on local market supplies, in turn easing the pressure on prices. By April, staple food prices in most markets had stabilized and had started decreasing. Most markets were reported to be adequately stocked with this season’s green and early harvests as well as last season’s stocks which traders have been offloading in preparation for this season’s new crop. Staple food prices on most markets are expected to continue to decline until the end of the harvest period (July/August) when prices should stabilize before rising again as the lean season approaches. Summary of the reports The month of May received below normal rainfall over the majority of the country with patches of above normal in the Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal and parts of the Great Karoo. The veld and livestock are in reasonable to poor condition in most provinces. Winter crops are in good condition in parts of the Northern Cape. There were outbreaks of Rabies in the Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal and Free State and the veterinary services intervened. Veld fires were reported in the Northern Cape and Gauteng. The level of dams is above 70% in all provinces except the Western

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Early Warning Unit, CCDM 6

Cape which is at 44%. Over SADC food supplies have improved as seasonal crops and early maize harvests become increasingly available on farms and in local markets. V. MONTHLY CLIMATE OUTLOOK Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecast: July - November 2012 Figure 1- Rainfall Figure 2- Minimum temperatures

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Early Warning Unit, CCDM 7

Figure 3- Maximum temperatures

How to interpret the forecast maps:

There are three sets of forecast maps: the rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures.

Each set consists of maps showing the probabilities for above-normal (left panels) and below normal (right panels) conditions to occur.

For each forecast map a probability percentage is given on a scale of 0-50% and above (the colour bars on the right hand side of each map) for the rainfall or temperatures for the season, i.e. JULY-AUGUST-SEPTEMBER 2012.

The forecast probabilities indicate the direction of the forecast as well as the amount of confidence in the forecast.

For further clarification using JULY-AUGUST-SEPTEMBER 2012 rainfall (Figure 1) as an example: The winter rainfall areas, for the below normal category, are shaded in green (33-40%). In the above normal category they are shaded in yellow (33-40%). Comparing the two:-

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Early Warning Unit, CCDM 8

- below normal: 33-40%. - above normal: 33-40%.

Both categories have the same values and therefore cancel each other i.e. neither below nor above normal rainfall is favoured. Also, when a category is less than 45% it is considered uncertain and is therefore unusable. In such instances farmers are advised to plan their activities in accordance with weather conditions usually associated with that particular period/ season in their areas. Seasonal Forecast Overview for SOUTH AFRICA 1. ENSO Discussion ENSO conditions have been shown to be the single most determining factor in South African summer rainfall which can also be effectively forecasted. Other local ocean basins such as those from the Atlantic and Indian oceans have also shown to have very strong influences to South African rainfall, but remain very difficult to forecast for various reasons. Because of this fact, we look at ENSO forecasts to give an indication of whether the seasons ahead would be abnormally wet (La Nina) or dry (El Nino). Below are some forecasts from international and local centers: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) http://193.63.95.1/products/forecasts/d/charts/seasonal/forecast/seasonal_range_forecast/nino_plumes_public_s3/ Climate Prediction Center – National Centers for Environmental Prediction (CPC-NCEP) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/nino34SSTSea.gif International Research Institute Climate and Society (IRI) http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/QuickLook.html Risk & Vulnerability Atlas (RAVA) http://rava.qsens.net/themes/climate_template/seasonal-forecasts/NINO34_FCAST.jpg/view ENSO is currently in a Neutral phase and is predicted to remain in this phase for the forecast period. 2. Rainfall Forecast (July to November 2012) Enhanced Probabilities is considered to be more than 45% probability for a specific category. If there are areas that do not show an indication of more than 45% probability, then the forecasts for that area is considered to be uncertain.

July-August-September No Enhanced probabilities for above- or below-normal rainfall totals are expected for South Africa. August-September-October Enhanced probabilities for above-normal rainfall totals are expected for parts of Limpopo, North-West, Gauteng, Mpumalanga and KwaZulu-Natal. Enhanced probabilities for below-normal rainfall totals are expected for parts of Eastern Cape. September-October-November Enhanced probabilities for above-normal rainfall totals are expected for most parts of South Africa.

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Early Warning Unit, CCDM 9

3. Minimum Temperature Forecast (July to November 2012) Enhanced Probabilities is considered to be more than 45% probability for a specific category. If there are areas that do not show an indication of more than 45% probability, then the forecasts for that area is considered to be uncertain.

July-August-September No Enhanced probabilities for above- or below-normal minimum temperatures expected for South Africa. August-September-October No Enhanced probabilities for above- or below-normal minimum temperatures expected for South Africa. September-October-November No Enhanced probabilities for above- or below-normal minimum temperatures expected for South Africa. 4. Maximum Temperature Forecast (July to November 2012) Enhanced Probabilities is considered to be more than 45% probability for a specific category. If there are areas that do not show an indication of more than 45% probability, then the forecasts for that area is considered to be uncertain.

July-August-September Enhanced probabilities for below-normal maximum temperatures are expected for parts Limpopo, North-West, Gauteng, Mpumalanga, Free State and KwaZulu-Natal. August-September-October Enhanced probabilities for below-normal maximum temperatures are expected for parts North-West, Northern Cape, Free State and Eastern Cape. September-October-November Enhanced probabilities for above-normal maximum temperatures expected for parts of Northern Cape and Eastern Cape. Enhanced probabilities for below-normal maximum temperatures are expected for parts Limpopo, North-West, Gauteng, Mpumalanga, Free State and KwaZulu-Natal. In summation, rainfall is anticipated to remain climatology in winter rainfall areas towards the end of winter, meaning farmers should plan their activities according to weather conditions that usually occur at that time in the season. Both minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to lean towards climatology for the said areas. Farmers are encouraged to utilize 7 day weather forecasts for short term planning. With the above forecast in mind, the following strategies are recommended: VI. SUGGESTED STRATEGIES:

A. Rain-fed crop production (Winter Crop) Soil choice:

Choose suitable soil type.

Roughen the soil surface to minimize evaporation.

Minimise compaction by reducing the passing of heavy machinery in the field.

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Early Warning Unit, CCDM 10

Land preparation:

Minimum or zero tillage is encouraged to minimise emission of gases.

Use a ripper to break plough pans and increase access of roots to stored water and nutrients.

Prioritise fallow land. Crop choice and planting:

Choose suitable cultivars as a precautionary measure.

Provide flexibility and diversification.

Stick to normal planting window if appropriate and follow the weather and climate forecast regularly.

Consider staggered planting-spreading over weeks.

Always practice crop rotation.

Lay out planting rows parallel to the prevailing direction of the cold air flow.

Keep air drainage pathways open to insure good air drainage and elimination of frost

pockets.

Crop management:

Adjust planting density accordingly.

Consider mulching to minimise evaporation.

Always eradicate weeds.

Consider a conservative fertilizing strategy during dry conditions.

Consider organic fertilization.

Wheat: The strategy proposed is to scout the plants regularly, correctly identify any pests or diseases and make informed decisions regarding reaction.

Prune trees properly to avoid blocking air movement. The removal of low hanging, dense

branches is a must.

Using white paint on trunks of peaches and other tree fruits reduces winter trunk damage.

Use overhead sprinkler irrigation.

B. Irrigation farming

Remove all weeds containing seeds, but keep other vegetative rests on the land because that will reduce evaporation.

Check and repair all tools and machinery.

Irrigate during cool conditions to avoid evapotranspiration.

Consider using drip irrigation as it saves water by allowing it to drip slowly straight to the roots.

Avoid over irrigation because that can create problems e.g. water logging and diseases.

Adhere to the water restrictions when issued. C. Domestic and home garden water use

Conserve existing water supplies.

Eradicate water weeds.

Limit water waste and losses.

Repair leaking pipes.

Re-use water and retain high quality.

Harvest water during rainy days.

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Early Warning Unit, CCDM 11

D. Stock farming (very important)

Winter precipitation bearing systems can cause a sudden drop in temperature that could adversely affect livestock through old stress e.g. increase infection risk: e.g. calves – more susceptible to diseases when cold stressed.

Preventative measures:

Listen to weather advisories daily.

Increase resistance - optimal condition of animals (good nutrition).

Keep shelters dry.

Air flow - use of fans can keep temperatures higher.

Nutritional supplement for pregnant animals – Provide lots of drinking points. – Provide phosphorous licks freely.

Cattle: Warm blankets / hot boxes could help calves reach normal body temperature.

Sheep: Lambing cubicles during cold conditions for ewes.

Disposal of livestock – Sheep

Old, infirm sickly first. Good quality breeding ewes last.

– Cows Mature oxen, dry cows first. Retain nucleus of best cows aged 4 to 6 years.

Diseases - Local veterinary services – Relevant vaccinations. – Wet/dry conditions - relevant for specific areas.

E. Grazing (very important)

Subdivide your grazing area into camps of homogeneous units (in terms of species composition, slope, aspect, rainfall, temperature, soil and other factors) to minimise area selective grazing as well as to provide for the application of animal management and veld management practises such as resting and burning.

Determine the carrying capacity of different plant associations. Don’t exceed carrying capacity.

Calculate the stocking rate of each, and then decide the best ratios of large and small animals, and of grazers or browsers.

Provide periodic full growing-season rests (in certain grazing areas) to allow veld vigour recovery in order to maintain veld productivity at a high level as well as to maintain the vigour of the preferred species.

Do not overstock at any time to avoid overgrazing.

Eradicate invader plants.

Periodically reassess the grazing and feed available for the next few months, and start planning in advance.

Spread water points evenly. Water points should be distributed to prevent trampling of vegetation.

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Early Warning Unit, CCDM 12

F. Veld fires The provinces and farmers are advised to ensure that firebreaks are in place especially in winter rainfall areas where fuel load is high and may exacerbate the spread of fires. An owner of the land who is obliged to prepare and maintain a firebreak must ensure that, with due regard to the weather, climate, terrain and vegetation of the area, the following is taken care of in terms of installing firebreaks (Chapter 4 of National Veld and Forest Fire Act No. 101 of 1998):

It has to be wide enough and long enough to have a reasonable chance of preventing a veld fire from spreading to or from neighbouring land.

It does not cause soil erosion and

It is reasonably free of inflammable material capable of carrying a veld fire across it.

Firebreaks may be temporary or permanent.

Firebreaks should consist of fire-resistant vegetation, inflammable materials, bare ground or a combination of these.

Firebreaks must be located in such a way as to minimize risk to the resources being protected.

Erosion control measures must be installed at the firebreak.

Firebreaks can be made through the following methods:

Mineral earth firebreak: – Through ploughing, grading, other earth movement.

Use of herbicides.

Use animals to overgraze specifically to minimise fuel.

Strategic placement of burned areas; burning not to be done on days with fire hazard (windy and dry/hot).

Plant fire resistant plants.

Plant species selected for vegetated firebreaks must be non-invasive and capable of retarding the spread of fire.

Maintaining firebreaks:

Mow, disk, or graze vegetative firebreaks to avoid a build-up of excess litter and to control weeds.

Inspect all firebreaks for woody materials.

Inspect firebreaks at least annually and rework bare ground firebreaks as necessary.

Repair erosion control measures as necessary.

Access by vehicles or people must also be controlled.

Bare ground firebreaks which are no longer needed must be stabilized i.e. – Sow grass. – Mulch.

What to do when conditions favorable for veldfire are forecast:

Prohibit fires in the open air during periods of high fire hazard and establish a fire control committee.

To control fires, an alarm system, firefighting teams, and beaters must be organized in advance and plans prepared.

Livestock should be moved out of grazing land to a safe place.

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Early Warning Unit, CCDM 13

What to do during a veldfire:

Water is generally not available in sufficient quantities or at adequate pressure for the control of major fires; however, sand or other loose mineral soil material can be an effective method of control.

Tree branches can also be used to beat fire.

G. Cold spells (snowfall & Frost) (Very important)

When temperatures plunge below zero, livestock and crops need to be given extra attention. Prevention is key in dealing with hypothermia, and other cold weather injuries in livestock and crops. Following are a number of concerns and recommendations:

Livestock:

Hypothermia and dehydration are a serious concern in animals during cold and wet conditions. Wind-chill also adds greatly to the cold-stress for animals.

Livestock should be provided with wind-break, roof shelter and monitored for signs of discomfort (extensive shivering, weakness, lethargy, etc.)

It is very important that livestock be provided with extra hay/forage/feed to double the calories for normal body heat maintenance during extremely cold conditions.

It is critical that livestock have access to drinking water. Usual water sources may freeze in low temperatures and dehydration becomes a life-threatening factor. In general, livestock tend to drink less water in extremely cold conditions.

Special attention should be paid to very young and old animals because they may be less able to tolerate temperature extremes.

Do not shear Angora goats. Also, take extra time to observe livestock, looking for early sign of diseases and injuries.

Severe cold-weather injuries or death primarily occur in the very young or in animals that are already debilitated.

Cases of cold weather-related sudden death in calves often result when cattle are suffering from undetected infection, particularly pneumonia.

Livestock suffering from frostbite don’t exhibit pain. It may be up to two weeks before the injury becomes evident as freeze-damaged tissue starts to slough away. At that point, the injury should be treated as an open wound and a veterinarian should be consulted.

Crops:

Select frost tolerant plants over frost prone areas.

Place frost sensitive plants in protected locations.

Prune out the lower portions of windbreaks to allow air to pass through to avoid the

formation of a frost pocket.

Wrapping the trunks with materials such as newspaper, cardboard, aluminium foil will

prevent much of frost damage.

With more severe frosts canopy death can occur and trunk coverings need to extend up

beyond the graft union, so that the tree can reshoot from undamaged buds above the graft

once the wraps are removed.

Use heating devices such as orchard heaters to raise temperatures in plantings.

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Early Warning Unit, CCDM 14

Watering during cold stages (irrigate drop with frost/apply just a trickle at base of tree).

This will prevent dehydration during frost.

Increase air circulation.

Do not prune frost-damaged plants until they begin growing in spring.

Do not overprotect- plants are more frost resistant if kept hardened by cold weather.

Mulching can reduce soil temperature fluctuations – preventing early growth.

Most areas are dry as well as winter rainfall areas; hence, farmers are advised to continually conserve resources including water, and maintain soil moisture conservation strategies in accordance with the Conservation of Agricultural Resources Act (No. 43 of 1983). Furthermore, farmers in summer rainfall areas should ensure that firebreaks are in place as the hazard of fire remains due to the dry veld. It was also noted that as a result of the dry conditions shortage of grazing is already a concern and may continue to deteriorate as winter progresses until the spring season rains. Farmers are advised to keep the number of stock in balance with carrying capacity and provide additional feed including winter licks to give livestock sufficient nutrition. On the other hand cold front activities are likely to continue, increasing the chance of cold spell incidents i.e. wet and very cold conditions. Therefore preventative measures should be put in place. Also, localized flooding will remain possible in winter rainfall areas and precautionary measures for these should be considered e.g. relocation of livestock to a safe place. The users are urged to continuously monitor, evaluate, report and attend to current Disaster Risk issues. It is very important and mandatory for farming communities to always implement disaster risk measures and maintain good farming practices. The climate advisory should be disseminated widely. Users are advised to be on the look-out and act on the extreme daily warnings as well as the advisory update next month. Information sharing groups are encouraged especially among farming communities for sustainable development. It is the responsibility of farmers to implement disaster risk measures. The Disaster Management Act (Act No. 57 of 2002) urges Provinces, individuals and farmers, to assess and prevent or reduce the risk of disasters using early warning information. The current advisory can be accessed from the following websites: www.daff.gov.za and www.agis.agric.za. For more information contact:-

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Early Warning Unit, CCDM 15

DAFF, Directorate: Climate Change and Disaster Management Private Bag X250 Pretoria 0001 Tel:012 319 7955/56; Fax: 012 319 6711 Email: [email protected]

SAWS: Private Bag X097 Pretoria 0001 Tel: +27 (0) 12 367 6000 Fax: +27 (0) 12 367 6200 http://www.weathersa.co.za

ARC: Institute For Soil, Climate And Water Private Bag X79 Pretoria 0001 Tel: 012 310 2500 Fax: 012 323 1157 Email: [email protected], http://www.arc.agric.za

Disclaimer: The Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (DAFF) accepts no responsibility for any application, use or interpretation of the information contained in this advisory and disclaims all liability for direct, indirect or consequential damages resulting from the use of this advisory. Unauthorised use, copying or dissemination hereof is strictly prohibited and may result in severe civil and criminal penalties.

Copyright © Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries