national climate predictions and projections platform...
TRANSCRIPT
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National Climate Predictions and Projections Platform
(NCPP)
Introduction and saying something about CFS
Richard B. Rood
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Mission and Strategy
Mission: Supports state-of-the-art approaches to develop and deliver comprehensive regional climate information and facilitate its use in decision making and adaptation planning. Strategy: A community enterprise where climate information users, infrastructure developers, and scientists come together in a collaborative problem solving environment.
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NCPP is an emergent community
• Focused on the synthesis of existing climate capabilities spread across federal agencies, regional and local governments, universities, professional societies, nonprofits, and commercial activities
• Community participation in development of capabilities and problem solving – Evolving governance structure à based on
open-source, open-innovation principles
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What is different in the past decade?
• Emergence of open-source, open innovation communities for software development and complex problem solving.
• Evolution of governance practices and management approaches that lead to functioning, sustainable organizations.
• Development and deployment of tools to build and support communities.
• Structured, co-developed problem solving with multiple constituencies
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NCPP Status (Current and Interim)
• Organization – Technical team
• 40+ members from federal agencies, universities, and other organizations
– NOAA, DOI/(USGS, Reclamation), NCAR, NASA, DOE, universities – Core organizing team (responsible for NCPP)
• 9 full time and part time people + 2 in NOAA Management – Interim Climate Science Applications Team
• Current focus, downscaled data sets • Work through use cases and pilot projects that support
– Development of IT infrastructure – Provision of quality-assessed, digital climate data – Evaluation of models and analysis of credibility – Provision of guidance and advisory narratives
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NCPP Status (Current and Interim)
• Extend capabilities through engagement of existing networks – e.g., NOAA RISA, USGS CSC, … – e.g., Professional Societies, ICLEI, American
Planning Association, – e.g., Local consortia, University, Private
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Thinking about CFS • Multi-scale physics and scale interaction
– The initialization problem – Robustness of ensemble methods / design – Reconciliation of physical processes – Internal variability / persistence – Seasonal forecast skill scores aid long-term climate projections
• Multi-scale services and applications – Seasonal experience strongly informs usability of climate information
( Lemos and Rood, 2010 ) – Operational climate indices, products for long-term climate projections,
embedding services in simulations • Infrastructure to support scientific investigation, interchange of
ideas, interoperability of code – NCAR CESM Software Infrastructure Improvements – Research to Operations
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Temporary URLs for more info
• NCPP Mission and Strategy • NCPP Initial Use Cases • NCPP Meeting Minutes • NCPP Core Team Capability Summaries • Initial ESGF Portal (installed only)