national crime recording standard (ncrs): an analysis of

National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS):an analysis of the impact on recorded crime

Companion Volume to Crime in England and Wales 2002/2003

Part Two: Impact on individual police forces

Jon Simmons, Clarissa Legg and Rachel Hosking

July 2003On-Line Report 32/03

National Crime Recording Standard – Part Two

First published 2003Application for re p roduction should be made to the Communication Development Unit, Room 201, Home Office, 50Queen Anne’s Gate, London SW1H 9AT.© Crown copyright 2003 Set of 2 Volumes ISBN 1 84473 073 5

Volume 2 ISBN 1 84473 075 1

The views expressed in this report are those of the authors,not necessarily those of the Home Office (nor do they reflect Government Policy).

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Preface

Variation in recording practices has long frustrated attempts to compare accurately the level of crime between differentpolice forces. This variation has also obstructed efforts to understand how police forces can best respond to crime problemsand demonstrate their effectiveness to the people they serve.

The National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS) was adopted by all police forces in England and Wales in April 2002(some had adopted the Standard earlier) in an effort to improve the consistency of police recording and to better reflect thedemands made on the police by victims of crime. In most cases, this necessitated a move to a more victim-focusedapproach to crime recording based on the victim’s perception of a crime taking place, rather than an evidential approachbased on the police obtaining evidence of a crime occurring. The result has, in many cases, been an increase in recordedcrime in 2002/03 over and above that attributable to a real increase in crime.

This report is the second part of the Home Office summary of the impact of the NCRS in England and Wales in 2002/03.P a rt One provides the full details of the background, methodology, national findings and the conclusions (available athttp://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs2/rdsolr3103.pdf). This part provides a summary of the NCRS impact on each ofthe 43 police forces in England and Wales.

Whilst it has not been possible to estimate precisely what the NCRS effect has been for all forces (in some cases thenational methodology could not be used), the information contained in this section provides an insight into how the NCRShas affected local crime trends. Together with forces’ own analyses, this re p o rt should allow forces to present a betterinformed account of crime occurring in 2002/03 to their local populations.

Paul WilesDirectorResearch, Development and StatisticsHome Office


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1

Introduction

This is the second part of the Home Office report on the impact of the National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS) inEngland and Wales in 2002/03. This part of the re p o rt provides details of how the NCRS has affected the level ofrecorded crime in each police force in England and Wales. It draws primarily upon findings from the methodology agreedbetween police forces’ re p resentatives at the National Crime Recording Steering Group. The summaries also refer tointernal force analyses where appropriate. A brief overview of the background and method is provided below – for a fulleraccount of each, refer to Part One of the report.

BACKGROUND

All police forces in England and Wales adopted the NCRS in April 2002, although a few had moved in this direction priorto this date. The NCRS was developed by the Association of Chief Police Officers (ACPO), with assistance from the HomeO ffice, following the investigations into crime re c o rding variation by ACPO, the Home Office and Her Majesty’sInspectorate of Constabulary (HMIC). Variation in recording practices had made comparisons between police forces and,indeed, national estimates of the level of recorded crime, difficult to measure accurately.

The NCRS aims:

● To promote greater consistency between police forces in the recording of crime.● To take a more victim-oriented approach to crime recording.

The focus of the NCRS has been to harmonise police forces’ approaches to crime recording in order to improve confidencein the recorded crime statistics and to enable a more robust comparison of police performance to be undertaken. Theimplementation of a more victim-oriented approach to crime recording will also provide a better measure of the servicedemanded from the police, and aims to promote public confidence in the police service as a whole.

For many police forces, the introduction of the NCRS re q u i red a move to a more victim-focused approach to crimerecording, that is recording based more on the victim’s perception of a crime occurring rather than the police satisfyingthemselves that a crime had indeed taken place. Although a shift towards this prima facie approach to crime recordinghad been occurring in an ad hoc way in a number of forces prior to the universal adoption of the NCRS, the Standardserved to formalise this process nationally. In doing so, it was not intended that police forces should trawl for all potentialcriminal activity that occurs and thereby record this as crime, but rather focus on the demands being placed upon them byvictims and to ensure these were recorded in a consistent manner.

It was anticipated that such a move would result in more crimes being recorded than would have been the case had theNCRS not been introduced. The Home Office has there f o re estimated the extent to which the introduction of the newre c o rding Standard has impacted upon the re c o rded crime statistics in 2002/03 in order to provide a balancedinterpretation of the real trends in crime in England and Wales and for individual police force areas.


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METHOD

P a rt One gives the full details of the methodology used to estimate the impact of the NCRS. In brief, the number ofrecorded crimes was compared to the number of crime-related incidents in the following categories:

● Violence against the person● Burglary dwelling● Robbery● All theft● Total crime

Crime-related incidents have been taken as the most reliable measure of the ‘real’ changes in crime, on the assumption thatthe propensity of the public to re p o rt crimes should remain reasonably constant over time. Any change in the ratio ofcrimes to crime-related incidents has been assumed to signify a NCRS effect.

This method has not been able to estimate the impact of the NCRS in every force, particularly where changes to theincident count, either as a result of implementing the NCRS or other reasons, made the measure of incidents unstable overthe monitoring period. However, the methodology has enabled the Home Office to make national estimates for the impactof the NCRS and has helped interpret the impact in over half of the 43 forces in England and Wales. In other forces, amore traditional analysis of crime trends or other alternative methods have had to be adopted.

FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO FORCE VARIATION

Just as the NCRS has impacted on individual offence categories in different ways, so too has it affected to varying degreesthe level of crime recorded in different police force areas. Whilst not exhaustive, a number of factors are likely to haveaccounted for at least some of the variation in the NCRS impact between different police forces:

Different starting pointsWhilst the NCRS was officially implemented in all forces in England and Wales in April 2002, some forces beganre c o rding crime in line with the principles of the NCRS prior to this date. Details are given in the individual forc esummaries. Different police forces have also had to move from different points along the prima facie/evidential continuumto meet the objectives of the NCRS.

Recording systemsThe variation in recording practices – both for incidents and crimes – amongst police forces in England and Wales hasbeen well documented (see, for example, HMIC, 2000; Burrows et al., 2000). Just as recording practices have affectedthe proportion of incidents recorded as crimes, so too will the variation have impacted on the extent of the NCRS effect ineach force. Particular areas of variation include:

● Structural and procedural changesForces operate very different systems for receiving calls from the public, assigning police resources and, if appropriate,recording crimes (see Diez, 1995; HMIC, 2000). Some systems are locally operated at Basic Command Unit (BCU) level,others are centralised. Forces have different mixes of police and civilian staff undertaking these functions. Forces whichhave changed their call handling procedures and /or IT systems prior to or during the monitoring period are likely to havedisrupted the ratio of crimes to incidents.

Introduction

● Opening/closing codesIt is standard practice for most police forces to assign an ‘opening code’ to each incident which reflects the initialperception of the nature of the allegation made. When more information has been collected and the nature of the incidentis fully understood, a ‘closing code’ will normally be assigned reflecting the true nature of the allegation. It is thereforepossible for a ‘closing code’ to be diff e rent to an ‘opening code’. Forces’ incident counts can be derived from eitheropening or closing codes. If an incident is classified more towards the end of this process, and if that classification tends tomirror the final crime classification, then this will compromise the basis for using incidents as a comparator for recordedcrime trends.

● Make-up of incident counts There is variation amongst police forces in what is included within their incident counts. Whilst all forces include 999 calls,some do not count non-emergency calls for service or in-person (‘over the counter’) reports.

Other police activityN u m e rous macro-policing factors may have impacted upon the consistency of trends in re c o rded crimes and incidentswithin a police force area, for example, changes to area boundaries, changes to police numbers, commencement orcessation of reporting initiatives etc.

Small numbers of crimes/incidentsThe size of some forces is likely to dictate that, for some offence categories, the number of crimes and/or incidentsre c o rded is relatively small (for example ro b b e ry and sexual offences). In these cases, small fluctuations in a forc e ’sincident count or crime count can result in disproportionately large changes to the ratio of crimes to incidents and cantherefore produce unexpected and improbable NCRS effects.

INTERPRETING THE FORCE SUMMARIES

Each summary that follows contains information for each police force area:

● a table of the quarterly and full-year estimates of the NCRS impact for 2002/03 (where available);● general information about the implementation of the NCRS in each force followed by commentary on the

NCRS effect for the offences of violence against the person, burglary dwelling (or all burglary), robbery,all theft and total crime; and

● five charts for the offences detailed above (these are shown on the right-hand page).

An example key chart with explanatory labels for the different elements which comprise each chart is shown on page 5.

Negative impactsIn some instances, the national methodology has produced a negative NCRS estimate. Reasons for this could be that:

● a force was previously over-recording crimes (i.e. adopting the NCRS required a move away from a moreprima facie approach to crime recording in order to bring the force into line with the agreed nationalstandard);

● if incident levels were affected by the introduction of the NCRS then this could lead to an underestimate ofthe impact and sometimes even a negative estimate; or

● small numbers of crimes in certain categories in small forces can cause fluctuation in the data resulting inapparent negative impacts.

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Negative impacts, if sustained and significant, might also be an indication of a reduction in recording in a force whichshould be queried by Force Crime Registrars and auditors.

IMPORTANT

Please note that:

1. F o rces are not included or excluded from the national estimates owing to the quality of theircrime recording, but are included on the basis that the relationship between incidents and crimesis such that it appears consistent enough to be a measure of the NCRS impact.

2. The figures in this report use the national methodology to calculate estimates of the impact ofre c o rding changes owing to the NCRS. These estimates are not intended to provide a pre c i s eadjustment for the number of re c o rded crimes but rather to indicate the broad impact bothrelative to other crime types and also other forces or the national average.

3. The national methodology has been used to calculate estimates for the NCRS impact onp a rticular crime types in forces for the year 2002/03. This year re p resents the first full yearfollowing the national implementation of the NCRS. However, a number of forces implementedthe NCRS, or the underlying principles of the NCRS, in earlier years and therefore the estimateswill not reflect the full impact of these changes for these forces. Where possible, estimates of theNCRS impact in earlier years for these forces have also been provided in the commentary forthese forces.


4

Introduction

5

Note:The impact of recording changes should be visible as an increase in the ratio of crimes to incidents (i.e. the verticalbars). The right-hand axis is not to the same scale for each offence or police force and therefore readers should notecarefully the actual change in the ratio that is being shown. The percentage NCRS impact equates to the percentagechange in this ratio, not the absolute change.

Key to charts

Axis showingthe month and

the year

Axis showing theratio of crimes to

incidents

Ratio of crimes toincidents (number ofcrimes divided by

number of incidents)

Axis showing thenumber of incidents

or crimes

Number ofcrimesNumber of

incidents


6

Forcesummaries

7


Avon and Somerset adopted the National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS) in October 2000, but theforce acknowledges a reinforced effort from April 2001. This force has been included in the nationalestimates.

Avon and Somerset’s adoption date, October 2000, is only modestly reflected in the forc e ’s charts. The initial impactappears to have been small on target crimes initially, but greater on other offence categories, such as violence against theperson. However, the NCRS impact from 2001/02 appears to be more substantial as a result of the force’s recent drive toimprove crime recording in line with the NCRS.

The force is not aware of any changes to the count of crime-related incidents over the monitoring period.

Violence against the person – There is a clear NCRS impact for this crime type which began in October 2000 andhas continued to be visible until the end of 2002/03. The Home Office estimates an 18 per cent NCRS impact for the fullyear 2002/03. From April 2002, the ratio of crimes to incidents increased furt h e r. As a result, it is not possible tocategorically state as of March 2003, whether the NCRS impact is complete. Since the force adopted the NCRS in 2000,using the national methodology for the 12 months ending September 2001, the Home Office estimates a 34 per centNCRS impact on this crime type, whilst the force estimated an 18 per cent NCRS impact for 2001/02.

All burg l a ry – Separate burg l a ry dwelling data are not available for this force, there f o re all burglaries have beenconsidered in the analysis. There is no clear NCRS impact for burglary in Avon and Somerset in 2002/03 – the HomeOffice estimates a two per cent NCRS impact. Since the force implemented the principles of the NCRS in 2000, the rise incrimes has tracked the rise in incidents; both trends are closely correlated. The fall in burglary crimes since March 2002appears to be a real decrease. For 2001/02, the force estimated a four per cent NCRS impact for burglary offences.

R o b b e ry – R o b b e ry offences show a negative NCRS impact across all four quarters of 2002/03. Since NCRSimplementation, the rise and fall in crimes has tracked incidents, which suggests that the reduction in ro b b e ry from April 2002re p resents a genuine and sustained fall. The Home Office has estimated that there has been a minus six per cent NCRS impactfor 2002/03. Avon and Somerset estimated a negligible NCRS impact on ro b b e ry offences in the previous year.

All theft – Despite showing considerable variation in the quarterly NCRS estimates in 2002/03, there is a clear NCRSimpact for all theft, which began approximately a year after the initial introduction of the Standard. It appears that thenumber of incidents has remained fairly constant whereas the number of crimes has shown considerable fluctuation overthe monitoring period. For 2002/03, the Home Office estimates a nine per cent NCRS impact for all theft. The forc eestimated a nine per cent NCRS impact in 2001/02, whilst the national methodology estimates an eight per cent NCRSimpact for the 12 months ending September 2001.

Total crime – For total crime, there is a clear NCRS impact in 2002/03. Although the force adopted the Standard in2000, the introduction of the NCRS appears to have been slow. The Home Office estimates a ten per cent NCRS impactfor total recorded crime for 2002/03. For the previous year, Avon and Somerset estimated a nine per cent NCRS impacton total recorded crime, whilst the national methodology has estimated a 16 per cent NCRS impact for total recordedcrime for the 12 months ending September 2001.

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Percentage impact of recording changes on recorded crime

Force estimate HO estimate HO estimate HO estimate HO estimate HO estimateQ1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2002/03

Violence against personBurglary dwellingBurglary otherAll burglaryRobberyVehicle theftOther theftAll theftCriminal damageTotal crime

4% 19% 21% 29% 18%

-5% 6% 4% 3% 2%-7% -3% -5% -8% -6%

1% 13% 18% 8% 9%-1% 13% 21% 23% 14%1% 14% 16% 11% 10%

Avon & Somerset

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Violence against the person

Robbery

Total crime

All theft

Avon & Somerset

All burglary

Avon & Somerset

Right axis = ratio of crimes to incidents

Left axis = number of crimes or incidents

= number of crimes

= number of incidents

= ratio of crimes to incidents


B e d f o rd s h i re adopted the National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS) in April 2002 but has beenexcluded from the national estimates.

Bedfordshire has stated that it is not aware of any changes to the count of crime-related incidents during the monitoringperiod.The force comments that education and training provided to staff has enabled greater accuracy in the closing ofincidents than was the case prior to the introduction of the NCRS.

This has led to an increase in certain crime-related incidents, clearly visible for violence against the person (see force’schart), rather than a real incident increase. Since the increase in the number of incidents is considerable for this force, themethodology adopted by the Home Office may significantly underestimate the impact of the NCRS. For this reason thisforce has been excluded from the national estimates for the NCRS impact.

With reference to the force’s charts, although the impact of recording changes can be observed, the overall picture of theNCRS impact in Bedfordshire is not straightforward.

Violence against the person – For violence against the person, there has been a clear increase in the number ofcrimes being recorded relative to the trend in incidents. A noticeable increase in the recording of violence against theperson offences occurred around April 2002 when the force adopted the principles of the NCRS. Its effect continued to bevisible in the data up to July 2002. There was also an increase in the number of incidents around this time. As of March2003, it is not clear whether the NCRS impact on crime recording is complete for this offence type.

Burglary dwelling – The chart for burglary dwelling offences in Bedfordshire does not show a substantial NCRS impacton these crimes.

Robbery – The small number of robbery offences make it difficult to see the effects of the NCRS. Over the course of2002/03 a comparison of the ratio of crimes to incidents indicates that there may have been an NCRS impact on robberyoffences in this force.

All theft – The statistics for all thefts in Bedfordshire do not show an NCRS effect. There is no marked increase in thenumber of crimes in April 2002 to suggest the re c o rding changes have had an impact, and the number of incidentsremains fairly constant.

Total crime – It is evident from the force’s chart that the monthly crime data for total crime tend to fluctuate considerably.However, at the time of NCRS adoption there appears to be an increase in the number of crimes relative to the number ofincidents, which provides some evidence to suggest that the total number of recorded crimes in Bedfordshire has beenaffected by the NCRS.

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35%5 - 6%5 - 6%

0%-7%

24%

13%12 - 13%

Bedfordshire

The national methodology is not appropriate for this force.

11

Burglary dwellingViolence against the person

Robbery

Total crime

All theft

Bedfordshire

Bedfordshire



= number of crimes




Cambridgeshire adopted the National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS) in April 2002 and has beenincluded in the national estimates.

Cambridgeshire’s adoption date is reflected by an increase in the ratio of crimes to incidents, which is visible in the force’scharts for violence against the person offences and total crime.

The force is not aware of any changes to the count of crime-related incidents over the monitoring period. However, theHome Office estimate for the NCRS impact may understate the full effect of the recording changes if the incident count hasrisen due to the implementation of the NCRS. This may have happened in this instance, as a direct result ofCambridgeshire’s incident recording system; the force does not create an incident log for every crime reported directly toCrime Management Units. The force believes the NCRS impact is complicated by natural variation in the data, particularlyfor burglary dwelling.

Violence against the person – For violence against the person offences, there has been a clear and considerableincrease in the number of crimes being recorded relative to incidents. This increase began in April 2002 at the time ofNCRS adoption, and took immediate effect. The NCRS impact on violence against the person offences is approximately 72per cent over 2002/03. The ratio of crimes to incidents has remained reasonably stable over the four quarters of2002/03, fluctuating between 68 per cent and 76 per cent. This would suggest that the NCRS impact is complete for thisoffence type.

Burglary dwelling – Since April 2002, burg l a ry dwelling crimes and incidents have increased slightly. This rise begana round a year prior to the introduction of the NCRS, and there is no significant change in the crime re c o rding ratio fro mApril 2002 to March 2003. At the time of NCRS adoption, quarter one of 2002/03 figures for burg l a ry dwelling off e n c e sshowed an NCRS impact of approximately four per cent. However as the effects of the NCRS have stabilised within thef o rce, the results for the remainder of 2002/03 show a slightly higher and consistent NCRS impact, around eight to nine percent. This would suggest that the NCRS impact was probably complete for this offence type by September 2002.

Robbery – Due to the small number of robberies in this force and the natural variation in the data, it is difficult to estimatethe NCRS impact. However, there is evidence of an impact from the recording changes on robbery but this would notaccount for all of the recent increase. However, the Home Office estimates a 16 per cent NCRS impact on ro b b e ryoffences for 2002/03. It would appear that the NCRS impact has levelled off for this offence type.

All theft - The statistics for all theft provide some indication of a NCRS effect, which the Home Office estimates to be 11per cent for 2002/03 as a whole. It would also appear that the NCRS has bedded in for this offence type.

Total crime – The force’s chart for total crime shows a increasing gap between crime and incident numbers since April2002, which suggests a clear and immediate NCRS impact. The Home Office estimates a 17 per cent NCRS impact for2002/03 for total crime. After the initial step change, the NCRS impact has remained fairly stable over the year. It wouldtherefore appear that the impact has stabilised for crime as a whole in Cambridgeshire.

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75% 76% 69% 74% 68% 72%0% 4% 9% 8% 8% 7%

25% 12% 6% 10% 9% 9%14% 7% 4% 4% 7%

51% 17% 19% 16% 12% 16%0%

50%8% 9% 15% 13% 6% 11%

25% 18% 24% 24% 25% 23%20% 16% 18% 19% 15% 17%

Cambridgeshire

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Robbery

Total crime

All theft

Cambridgeshire

Cambridgeshire



= number of crimes



Cheshire adopted the National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS) in April 2002 and has been includedin the national estimates.

Cheshire’s adoption date is reflected by an increase in the ratio of crimes to incidents, which is visible in the force’s chartsfor total crime and particularly violence against the person offences.

The force is not aware of any changes to the count of crime-related incidents over the period in which the impact of theNCRS was monitored.

Violence against the person – For violence against the person offences, there has been a clear increase in thenumber of crimes being recorded relative to the number of incidents from April 2002. Crimes have generally increasedsince this date and have continued to do so into March 2003 (the end of the monitoring period). Similarly, incidents haveincreased from the time the NCRS was adopted until July and demonstrate a downward trend from July - October 2002,after this peak. The increased divergence between crime and incidents may be due to the NCRS effect since the force’sincident count is derived from closing codes. Alternatively, the divergence could be a real increase in crime. Owing to thefact that the number of crimes continued to increase at a greater rate than incidents since April 2002, this would suggestthat the NCRS effect is not over for this type of offence. The Home Office estimates an NCRS impact of 76 per cent forviolence against the person offences for 2002/03.

Burglary dwelling and robbery – The relatively small numbers of crimes for burglary dwelling offences and robberyoffences in Cheshire present too much variation in the data to suggest a clear NCRS impact. However, the Home Officeestimates a six per cent impact on domestic burglary in this force, and a 22 per cent impact on robbery for the year2002/03.

All theft – The NCRS impact on all theft is unclear. There has been a small increase in crime due to the NCRS over theyear as a whole. However, during quarters one and two of 2002/03, where the number of incidents exceeded crimes, theratio of crimes to incidents decreased showing a negative NCRS impact. This suggests either that the NCRS has had animpact on incident as well as crime recording or that NCRS implementation had a slow start for all theft. From quarter twoof 2002/03, the ratio started to increase, and reached a peak in the fourth quarter of the monitoring period. Thisrepresents the point at which there was the greatest deviation between the number of incidents and crimes. It is not possibleto state as of March 2003, whether the impact of the changes to crime recording is over for all thefts in this force.

Total crime – From April 2002, an NCRS impact can be identified for total crime in this force. This is clearlydemonstrated by the increase in the number of recorded crimes relative to incidents. It would appear that the NCRS hastaken time to bed in in this force. There is a relatively small immediate impact (around three to four per cent in the first twoq u a rters of 2002/03), followed by a greater impact in the third and fourth quarters (15 per cent and 24 per cent,respectively). For the whole year 2002/03, the NCRS impact on total crime is estimated by the Home Office to be 11 percent. It would also appear that the NCRS impact may have taken longer than 12 months to bed in for this force.

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80% 53% 57% 87% 110% 76%4% 6% 2% 6% 13% 6%-4% -2% -6% -2% 2% -2%0% 3% -3% 1% 7% 2%

15% 11% 19% 30% 31% 22%

-5% -4% -5% 5% 18% 3%8% 9% 8% 15% 21% 13%2% 4% 3% 15% 24% 11%

CheshireNational Crime Recording Standard – Part Two

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Robbery

Total crime

All theft

Cheshire

Cheshire



= number of crimes



Cleveland adopted the National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS) in April 2002 and has beenincluded in the national estimates.

Cleveland’s adoption date is reflected by an increase in the ratio of crimes to incidents, which is visible in the force’s chartsfor violence against the person offences, all theft and total crime.

The force is aware of changes to the count of crime-related incidents during the monitoring period. From October 2002,the force introduced a new incident recording policy that required the creation of an incident for all crime matters (except‘victimless’ crimes) which have been discovered without a public report of crime. However, this change does not appear tohave had a major impact on the NCRS monitoring data.

Violence against the person – For violence against the person, the NCRS has had a clear impact, although theimpact began prior to the national NCRS implementation date. The largest increases in re c o rding came firstly in April2002 when the number of crimes dramatically rose relative to the trend in incidents, and then in October 2002. Clevelandstates that the auditing and reinforcement of the 1998 counting rules in the latter half of 2001/02 in the force’s largest andhighest crime BCU, resulted in substantially more non-incident-related crimes (for example, obstruction of a police officer,possession of offensive weapons, and Public Order Act offences) being recorded. This increase in crime is visible in thef o rc e ’s chart. The Home Office estimates a 71 per cent NCRS impact for violence against the person offences for2002/03. Quarterly NCRS impact estimates have continued to increase during 2002/03, which suggests that the NCRSinflation is not over yet for this offence type. Cleveland indicate that the auditing of crime data began in Autumn 2001 andthis has affected back-audited crime to April 2001. Therefore, the force claims any assessment based on 2001 data islikely to provide an incomplete picture for this offence type.

All burg l a ry and ro b b e ry – Burg l a ry and ro b b e ry offences show relatively little NCRS inflation. For both off e n c etypes, numbers of crimes have tracked incidents over recent months suggesting that the trends in the data are more likely tobe real. For all burglary, the numbers of both crimes and incidents have generally decreased since January 2002. Forrobbery, a sharp increase in early 2002 has been followed by a general downward trend over the following 12 months.The Home Office estimates a seven per cent impact on all burglary and a three per cent impact on robbery for the wholeof 2002/03.

All theft – The statistics for all theft offences suggest an NCRS impact following its adoption by the force in April 2002,although there has been a general decrease in the number of crimes and incidents re c o rded from Febru a ry 2002 toDecember 2002. The Home Office estimates a 13 per cent NCRS impact for 2002/03.

Total crime – The force’s chart for total crime shows a large NCRS impact despite a general decrease in the number ofcrimes and incidents from February 2002 to December 2002. There is considerable variation from quarter to quarter inthis force’s data, but nonetheless the Home Office methodology estimates a 16 per cent NCRS impact for total crime for thefull year 2002/03.

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39% 48% 99% 104% 71%

11% 2% 5% 10% 7%-7% 6% 12% 6% 3%

10% 14% 22% 6% 13%20% 21% 24% 22% 22%13% 12% 23% 17% 16%

ClevelandNational Crime Recording Standard – Part Two

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Robbery

Total crime

All theft

Cleveland

Cleveland

All burglary



= number of crimes



Cumbria adopted the National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS) in April 2001 but has been excludedfrom the national estimates.

Cumbria has experienced changes to the count of crime-related incidents, which are clearly demonstrated in the force’soffence charts. Incident and crime returns for 2001 were compiled using a different method to 2002. There is also a visiblerise in incidents being recorded in March to April 2001, when the changes to recording practices took place. For thisreason, the national methodology is inappropriate for this force and Cumbria has not been included in the national NCRSestimates. Furthermore, Cumbria introduced a Centralised Crime Recording Bureau in April 2002, although the force statesthat this new recording system will not have any impact on the number of incidents recorded.

The force has estimated the percentage impact of re c o rding changes for the period from November 2001 to October2002, after implementing the NCRS in April 2001. It has calculated a noticeable NCRS for violence against the person, alltheft and total crime. These analyses are borne out by the force’s charts, which show a sharp increase in the recording ofboth crimes and incidents from April 2001. A further increase in the number of incidents recorded in the first quarter of2002/03 may be due to a clarification of the counting rules within the force at the time the Standard was adoptednationally.

Violence against the person – The number of violence against the person crimes and incidents increased substantiallyfrom April 2001, and this can be seen in the force’s chart. In March 2002, around the time of the introduction of theCentralised Crime Recording Bureau, a second ‘wave’ of increases in incidents and crimes can be observed. It is notpossible to discern a clear NCRS impact in 2002/03 on the basis of these data using the national methodology. However,the force estimates an impact of around 21 per cent on violence against the person as a result of the recording changesduring the period from November 2001 to October 2002.

All burglary – There is considerable fluctuation in the number of recorded burglary incidents and crimes in Cumbria overthe monitoring period. However, there is no evidence of a large recording effect for this crime type. The force estimates theimpact to have been three per cent both for domestic burglary and all burglary from November 2001 to October 2002.Separate incident data for these categories were not available.

Robbery – The small number of robbery offences that occur in Cumbria over the monitoring period, have resulted inconsiderable fluctuations in the data. This makes it difficult to make any meaningful assessment of the NCRS impact on thiscrime type.

All theft – Like violence against the person, all theft offences experienced a substantial increase in crime and incidentrecording in April 2001. The force estimates the impact of the changes on its recorded thefts from November 2001 toOctober 2002 to have been six per cent overall, with no impact on vehicle crime and a 10 per cent impact on other thefts.

Total crime – Like violence against the person and all theft, total crime in Cumbria suggests that increases in both crimeand incident recording occurred over the period from March 2001. The force suggests that the impact of introducing theNCRS in Cumbria was around 12 per cent for total recorded crime from November 2001 to October 2002.

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21%3%2%3%

-20%0%

10%6%-2%

12%

CumbriaNational Crime Recording Standard – Part Two


19


Robbery

Total crime

All theft

Cumbria

Cumbria

All burglary



= number of crimes



D e r b y s h i re adopted the National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS) in April 2002 but has beenexcluded from the national estimates.

Derbyshire’s adoption date is reflected by an increase in the ratio of crimes to incidents, which is visible in the force’scharts for violence against the person offences and burglary dwelling offences.

The NCRS impact for the force is complicated by the introduction of a new incident recording system, which has affectedthe count of crime-related incidents over the monitoring period. In 2001, a Call Reception Bureau was opened in one ofDerbyshire’s three BCUs to improve the handling of incident calls. This has tended to move the classification of incidents toan earlier point in the process, therefore better reflecting the initial call for service rather than the final decision on whetheror not to classify the incident as a crime. From quarter three of 2002/03, one of the remaining two BCUs also adopted thissystem of incident recording.

With re f e rence to the forc e ’s charts particularly violence against the person, all theft, and total crime, the number ofrecorded incidents appears to show a substantial increase in early 2001 and again in early 2002 prior to the formaladoption of the NCRS by the force. The observed increase in the number of incidents recorded by the force indicates thatthe national methodology would severely underestimate the impact of the NCRS. Rises in crime seen in April 2002 arelikely to be the result of changes in recording practice from February to May 2002. Any trends in crime after May 2002are likely to be real. In support of this, the force claims that there has been no significant increase in real crime levels sinceApril 2002, when it adopted the NCRS.

Violence against the person – For violence against the person, there has been a clear increase in the number ofcrimes being recorded relative to the number of incidents. There has also been a concurrent rise in incidents. The increasein the number of recorded crimes and incidents began in March 2002 – a month before the official introduction of theNCRS. The gap that resulted between the two variables suggests a marked NCRS impact on this offences type.

B u rg l a ry dwelling – Domestic burg l a ry shows a potentially large impact from the introduction of the NCRS. Thisaffected both crimes and incidents. A change in the ratio between crimes and incidents is clearly visible in the force’s chartbut (noting the right-hand axis) it is not substantial. As a result, the national methodology would clearly underestimate theNCRS impact on burglary dwelling crimes.

Robbery – The number of robberies in Derbyshire is small and there is considerable natural variation in the data. It is notpossible to provide a meaningful NCRS estimate.

All theft – The statistics for all thefts in Derbyshire show a noticeable increase, both in the number of crimes and alsoincidents in April 2002. As for other crime types, this would suggest that incidents were affected by the introduction of theNCRS in a similar degree to the crime count.

Total crime – Total crime and incidents in Derbyshire have been affected by the NCRS, with a large increase recorded amonth before implementation of the NCRS in March 2002. This increase is visible in the data until May 2002. After thisdate, crimes track the movement in incidents. The overall impact of recording changes does not appear to have continuedbeyond May 2002.

20




DerbyshireNational Crime Recording Standard – Part Two

Force estimates of the NCRS impact are notcurrently available and the national methodologyis not appropriate for this force.

21


Robbery

Total crime

All theft

Derbyshire

Derbyshire



= number of crimes



Devon and Cornwall adopted the National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS) in April 2002 but hasbeen excluded from the national estimates.

Devon and Cornwall’s adoption date is reflected by an increase in the ratio of crimes to incidents, which is visible in theforce’s charts and shows that the impact appears to have had an immediate effect.

The force is not aware of any changes to the incident count over the monitoring period. With re f e rence to the forc e ’scharts, a considerable increase in the number of incidents recorded around April 2002 is visible for violence against theperson and total crime. This is likely to result from the NCRS changes affecting the incident as well as the crime count. Themethodology adopted by the Home Office would significantly underestimate the impact of the NCRS for this force; hencethe Devon and Cornwall has been excluded from the national estimate.

Violence against the person – For violence against the person, there has been a noticeable step change in the crimerecording ratio from April 2002. The large increase in the number of incidents recorded at the time the force adopted theNCRS suggests that incident recording has also been affected. It is unlikely that the observed increases in crime represent areal increase, but rather reflect the changes associated with the introduction of the NCRS. Following NCRS adoption, thetrends in recorded violence against the person crimes and incidents generally track each other. This suggests that trendsafter April 2002 are real, and that the NCRS bedded down quickly for this offence type.

Burglary dwelling – The number of burglary dwelling crimes in Devon and Cornwall increased in March 2002. Thismight be consistent with the impact of the adoption of the NCRS. Changes in the numbers of domestic burglaries havetracked trends in the number of incidents. Since August 2002, the number of burglary offences has fallen, and the force’schart suggests that the NCRS effect is complete for this offence type.

Robbery – The number of robberies in this force is small and as a result there is considerable natural variation in thedata. This makes the NCRS impact difficult to determine. It is worth noting that robbery rose sharply in the early months of2002, pre-dating the introduction of the NCRS by the force, and the number of robberies rose sharply again fro mDecember 2002 to the early months of 2003.

All theft – The recording changes have affected both crimes and incidents from April 2002, although there has been aclear increase in the number of crimes recorded relative to the number of incidents. From August 2002 to December 2002,the number of crimes notably decreased, in contrast to incidents, which resulted in a smaller crime recording ratio. It is notclear why this fall in the level of crime has not been reflected in the numbers of incidents of theft, and as a result furtherchanges in the recording of thefts may become evident.

Total crime – With reference to the force’s chart for total crime, there is a clear NCRS impact from April 2002. This isdemonstrated by the increase in crime and, to a lesser extent, incidents. The trend in incidents appears to show littlevariation following the initial increase at the time of NCRS introduction. The force comments that it is their view that totalcrime levels have not increased significantly in 2002/03, other than due to the recording changes. They claim that withoutthe NCRS they would actually be experiencing a decrease in recorded crime.

22




108%20%20%20%77%21%33%28%39%38%

Devon & CornwallNational Crime Recording Standard – Part Two


23


Robbery

Total crime

All theft

Devon & Cornwall

Devon & Cornwall



= number of crimes



Dorset adopted the National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS) in April 2002 and has been includedin the national estimates.

Dorset’s adoption date is reflected by an increase in the ratio of crimes to incidents, which is visible in the force’s charts forviolence against the person, all theft and total crime.

Two BCUs in Dorset implemented and piloted the NCRS before April 2002. This would have affected the data provided forthe force as a whole. The national method for calculating the NCRS impact has therefore been amended slightly to takethis factor into consideration. The period from July 2000 to June 2001, where the ratio of crimes to incidents appears moststable, has been used as the base ratio to estimate the NCRS effect for Dorset. Other than this recording change, the forceis not aware of any changes to the crime-related incident count during the period of analysis.

Violence against the person – For violence against the person offences, a clear impact of the recording changes canbe seen in the force’s chart. At the time of NCRS adoption in April 2002, there was a dramatic increase in the number ofcrimes being recorded relative to the number of incidents. After April 2002, the number of crimes and incidents appears togenerally level off, although there are fluctuations from month to month. The Home Office estimates the NCRS impact to be78 per cent for violence against the person offences in Dorset for 2002/03.

B u rg l a ry dwelling – Burg l a ry dwelling crimes in Dorset do not show any clear NCRS impact. The overall trend indomestic burglary in this force has been downward since October 2001. The Home Office NCRS estimate for burglarydwelling offences in Dorset is negligible for 2002/03.

Robbery – The number of robberies recorded each month in this force is small and there is considerable natural variationin the data which makes the NCRS impact unclear, although an NCRS estimate of 19 per cent has been calculated forrobbery offences in Dorset for 2002/03.

All theft – The statistics for all thefts in Dorset show a clear NCRS impact in April 2002. An increase in the number ofcrimes coincides with a decrease in the number of incidents, producing a substantial gap between the two figures. Thissuggests that there is a marked NCRS effect. There does, however, appear to be some volatility in the ratio of crimes toincidents, which is reflected in the quarterly estimates. This said, for the full year 2002/03, the Home Office estimates a32 per cent NCRS impact on all theft offences in this force (and a much larger impact for non-vehicle related theftscompared to vehicle thefts). It is not yet clear if the impact of the recording changes is through for this offence type.

Total crime – Total crime closely reflects the trend in all theft in Dorset. The force’s chart for total crime shows a clear andgradual increase in the number of crimes being re c o rded relative to the number of incidents. The main thrust of thisincrease is visible from April 2002. However, incidents have generally fallen since that month, hence the increase in therecording ratio. For total recorded crime in Dorset, the Home Office estimates a 26 per cent NCRS impact for the full year2002/03, which is considerably higher than the national estimate for total crime.

24




88% 73% 68% 87% 85% 78%-1% 0% 4% -2% 0% 0%6% 9% 9% 3% 2% 6%4% 6% 7% 1% 1% 4%

33% 26% 24% 17% 8% 19%23% 16% 16% 20% 13% 16%50% 45% 38% 36% 56% 43%40% 33% 29% 29% 37% 32%42% 29% 20% 37% 50% 34%28% 22% 20% 29% 35% 26%

DorsetNational Crime Recording Standard – Part Two

25


Robbery

Total crime

All theft

Dorset

Dorset



= number of crimes



D u rham adopted the National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS) in January 2002 but has beenexcluded from the national estimates.

Durham is not aware of any changes to the count of crime-related incidents in the monitoring period. It is recognised thatthe methodology being applied by the Home Office is not completely appropriate for this force. The introduction of theNCRS appears to have had an impact on the recording of incidents as well as crimes, making it difficult to provide realisticestimates using the national methodology.

Violence against the person – From January to March 2002 the number of violence against the person crimes andincidents increased substantially. A clear increase in the number of incidents and recorded crimes can be seen in January2002. This step change appears to be complete by March 2002 and from this date it is likely that the trends in crimeshown by this force are real rather than a product of the recording changes.

Burglary dwelling – Burglary dwelling crimes and incidents increased in January 2002 and then generally decreasedfrom that date. It is not possible to determine whether the changes in burglary at the beginning of 2002 are real, or aproduct of recording changes.

Robbery – There are too few robbery offences in this force and too much resulting natural variation in the data to identifyany clear NCRS impact on this crime type. However, it is worth noting that the rise in robbery in Durham predates theintroduction of the NCRS by around six months, although overall the numbers remain small (see force’s robbery chart).

All theft – The statistics for all theft offences in Durham suggest there has been a small NCRS impact in January 2002,when there was an increase in the number of crimes and incidents. However, after March 2002 the number of incidentsand crimes can be seen to decrease until the end of 2002. There is little evidence of any continuing NCRS impact afterMarch 2002.

Total crime – With reference to the force’s chart, for total crime in this force there appears to be a clear NCRS impact, asboth incidents and crimes rose sharply in January 2002 at the point at which this force adopted the new re c o rd i n gstandard. It seems likely that such a short and sharp effect was related to these changes. However, there is little evidence ofany continuing impact beyond March 2002.

26




DurhamNational Crime Recording Standard – Part Two


27


Robbery

Total crime

All theft

Durham

Durham



= number of crimes



Dyfed-Powys adopted the National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS) in April 2002 and has beenincluded in the national estimates.

Dyfed-Powys’ adoption date is clearly reflected by an increase in the ratio of crimes to incidents, which is visible in theforce’s charts for the main crime types (excluding robbery).

This force represents one of the few forces in England and Wales that has not introduced the screening of crimes. As aconsequence, Dyfed-Powys investigates all offences, which the force considers assists in its attempt to fully embrace theNCRS. The force is not aware of any changes to the count of crime-related incidents prior to the adoption of the NCRS, orduring the monitoring period.

Violence against the person – For violence against the person, there has been a clear increase in the number ofcrimes being re c o rded relative to the number of incidents. This increase precedes the NCRS adoption by one month,beginning in March 2002. Its effect is visible in the data up to autumn 2002. The Home Office estimates a 25 per centNCRS impact for violence against the person offences in 2002/03 for Dyfed-Powys.

Burglary dwelling – The number of recorded burglary dwelling crimes in Dyfed-Powys has increased relative to thenumber of incidents from April 2002 until at least July 2002. The fluctuations in burglary dwelling have tended to track thetrends in incidents, which indicates real variation over this period. The Home Office estimates a 17 per cent NCRS impactfor burglary dwelling offences in 2002/03 for Dyfed-Powys.

Robbery – Robberies in Dyfed-Powys are rare. As a result there is considerable variation in the monthly data and there isno evidence of an NCRS impact on this crime type in Dyfed-Powys.

All theft – The statistics for all thefts in Dyfed-Powys show an NCRS impact since April 2002. From July 2002 toDecember 2002 both the number of crimes and incidents decreased considerably suggesting a real decrease in all theftoffences. The Home Office estimates that there has been an NCRS impact of 11 per cent for all theft offences in the forcefor 2002/03.

Total crime – For total crime in this force, there is a clear inflationary NCRS impact from April 2002. Post NCRSadoption by the force, from April to September 2002, there is a gradual increase in the ratio of crimes compared toincidents. This appears to have levelled out now although there is considerable variation in this forc e ’s data. For totalrecorded crime in Dyfed-Powys, the Home Office estimates a 21 per cent NCRS effect for 2002/03.

28




27% 30% 24% 19% 25%15% 25% 18% 10% 17%15% 37% 21% 25% 25%15% 34% 20% 19% 23%-4% 28% 362% -1% 23%

9% 12% 15% 8% 11%5% 9% 9% 0% 6%

18% 25% 27% 13% 21%

Dyfed-PowysNational Crime Recording Standard – Part Two

29


Robbery

Total crime

All theft

Dyfed-Powys

Dyfed-Powys



= number of crimes



Essex adopted the National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS) in April 2002 and has been included inthe national estimates.

Essex’s adoption date is reflected by an increase in the ratio of crimes to incidents, which is visible in the force’s charts forviolence against the person offences, all theft offences and total crime.

The force is not aware of any changes to its count of crime-related incidents over the monitoring period.

Violence against the person – For violence against the person, there has been a clear increase in the crime recordingratio. The initial step change at the time of the force’s NCRS implementation, occurred over two months and then continuedto rise until October 2002. This rise in the ratio can be explained by the downward trend exhibited in the number ofincidents recorded by the force, relative to the number of crimes. From quarter three to quarter four of 2002/03, the ratioappeared to stabilise, suggesting that the recording changes have levelled off. The Home Office estimates an 82 per centNCRS impact for violence against the person offences for the full year 2002/03 in Essex.

Burglary dwelling – Burglary dwelling offences show a large NCRS impact from April 2002. From this date, incidentsand crimes track each other more closely than was the case prior to the implementation of the Standard. The Home Officeestimates an increase of 24 per cent due to recording changes for 2002/03. This represents the largest NCRS impactexperienced by any force included in the national estimate for this crime type. The force believes that the clarification of theHome Office counting rules in relation to attempted burglaries and criminal damage in April 2002 has also had an impacton these two categories, causing the particularly marked increase in domestic burglary. The rise in the estimated NCRSimpact in the final quarter means that it is not possible to state as of March 2003, whether the impact of the NCRS iscomplete for this offence type.

Robbery – Ignoring two obvious outliers, the slight upward trend in the ratio of crimes to incidents suggests that there issome evidence of increased recording of robbery offences in Essex, albeit over a longer period. This rise possibly predatesthe introduction of the NCRS. For the full year 2002/03, the Home Office estimates a 19 per cent NCRS impact forrobbery offences. As of March 2003, it is not possible to state whether the impact of recording changes is complete for thisoffence type.

All theft – The statistics for all theft in Essex show a general increase in the number of crimes, and fairly stable incidentre c o rding since NCRS implementation in April 2002. This has resulted in a gradual increase in the ratio of crimes toincidents from April 2002 to December 2002. The Home Office estimates a 12 per cent NCRS impact for all theft offencesfor 2002/03. There is little evidence of any further increases for this offence type.

Total crime – Total crime has experienced a NCRS effect, estimated at 21 per cent for 2002/03. A step change in thecrime recording ratio occurs in April 2002, when there is a clear increase in the number of crimes being recorded relativeto incidents. This increase continues until November 2002. The number of incidents remains stable throughout this period. Itwould appear that the NCRS impact is complete for total recorded crime in Essex.

30




60% 77% 98% 96% 82%21% 25% 22% 29% 24%-4% -7% -5% -14% -8%7% 8% 6% 4% 6%

18% 8% 22% 28% 19%6% 12%

12% 10%

9% 12% 19% 10% 12%13% 21% 21% 20% 18%16% 21% 27% 22% 21%

EssexNational Crime Recording Standard – Part Two

31


Robbery

Total crime

All theft

Essex

Essex



= number of crimes



Gloucestershire adopted the National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS) in April 2002 and has beenincluded in the national estimates.

Gloucestershire’s adoption date is reflected by an increase in the ratio of crimes to incidents, which is visible in the force’schart for violence against the person offences, although there appears to have been a second larger step change in theratio of crimes to incidents in October 2002.

The force is not aware of any changes to the count of crime-related incidents that could have occurred over the monitoringperiod.

The force states that the date of NCRS adoption coincided with the start of training contact centre staff that are responsiblefor incident closure. As knowledge and understanding of the NCRS has increased, control room staff will start using closurecodes more accurately and an increasing number of incidents not captured prior to the NCRS will be assigned moreappropriate crime-related closure codes. If this was occurring in the months after April 2002, it might explain the apparentslow take-up of the NCRS for violence against the person offences in Gloucestershire.

Violence against the person – Since April 2002, for violence against the person offences, there has been a clearincrease in the number of crimes being recorded relative to incidents. The main impact of these changes appears to occurin October 2002, although it is possible that increased incident re c o rding as a result of the NCRS has depressed theestimates for the NCRS impact between April and October 2002. Analysis carried out by Gloucestershire suggests that ithas experienced a NCRS impact of between 30 - 40 per cent for violence against the person offences for 2002/03. Thisreflects the NCRS estimate using the national methodology. The Home Office estimates a 34 per cent NCRS impact inGloucestershire for 2002/03 for this offence type, although this is likely to be an underestimate.

B u rg l a ry dwelling – Burg l a ry dwelling crimes and incidents in Gloucestershire appear to be more stable since theadoption of the NCRS in April 2002. The Home Office estimates a five per cent NCRS impact for the full year 2002/03 inthis force.

Robbery – The small number of robberies occurring in each month in Gloucestershire, as in a number of other forces,results in considerable natural variation in the data, to the extent that it is very difficult to suggest any NCRS impact on thiscrime in the force.

All theft – The statistics for all theft in Gloucestershire show a small NCRS impact since April 2002, around five per centfor 2002/03 as a whole, equally split between vehicle crime and other thefts. From September 2002, crimes have closelytracked the trends in incidents suggesting that the NCRS impact is complete for this offence type.

Total crime – For total recorded crime, this force shows an eight per cent NCRS impact for 2002/03. Although theNCRS impact is different for individual crime types, it would appear that the impact of the recording changes on crime as awhole is now complete. The inflation of the incident statistics may have been due to the NCRS, and the Home Off i c eestimate is there f o re likely to understate the full effect of the changes. However, since September 2002 crimes havegenerally tracked the decrease in incidents, which suggests that any changes now represent a real decrease in total crimefor this force.

32




30 - 40% 13% 17% 57% 48% 34%3% 4% 9% 5% 5%7% 3% 11% 2% 6%6% 3% 10% 3% 6%

20% 8% -6% 2% 6%8% 4% 7% 4% 6%4% 0% 12% 6% 5%6% 1% 10% 5% 5%0% -3% 11% 2% 2%7% 2% 15% 10% 8%

GloucestershireNational Crime Recording Standard – Part Two

33


Robbery

Total crime

All theft

Gloucestershire

Gloucestershire



= number of crimes



Greater Manchester adopted the National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS) in April 2002 and hasbeen included in the Home Office national estimates.

Greater Manchester’s adoption date is reflected by a sharp increase in the ratio of crimes to incidents around the time theNCRS was introduced. This is visible in the force’s chart for violence against the person offences.

The force is not aware of any changes that could have affected the incident data over the monitoring period. There is someevidence of small increases in incident recording in the month prior to NCRS introduction, which if related to the recordingchanges, would cause the national methodology to underestimate the impact of the NCRS for this force.

Violence against the person – For violence against the person, there has been a clear increase in the number ofcrimes being recorded relative to the number of incidents, beginning in April 2002. The increase due to recording changesis estimated at around 19 per cent for the full year 2002/03. Due to the consistency in the ratio between crimes andincidents, an the range of the NCRS estimates over the first three quarters of 2002/03, it would appear that the NCRSimpact is complete for Greater Manchester for this offence type. The results for the fourth quarter of 2002/03 appear to beaffected by a rise in incidents in early 2003. This rise in incidents coincides with NCRS training presentations given todivisional staff and those responsible for incident coding.

Burglary dwelling – In Greater Manchester, the recording of burglary dwelling crimes show a small NCRS impact ofabout three per cent for 2002/03. For all burg l a ry for the full year, the estimated NCRS impact is slightly lower –approximately two per cent. There is no evidence for any continuing NCRS inflation of the burglary statistics beyond thefirst quarter of 2002/03.

Robbery – The data for robberies in Greater Manchester show a very small NCRS impact, although there is variationbetween quarters. The estimated NCRS impact for robbery offences in this force is negligible over the year 2002/03 as awhole.

All theft – The data for all theft offences in Greater Manchester suggest no obvious NCRS impact on this crime type, andthere is only a small negative NCRS estimate for the year as a whole. This either indicates that this crime category wasvery well recorded by this force prior to NCRS adoption, or that further implementation is still required. An audit of crimerecording should help to clarify the situation.

Total crime – There is little evidence of a NCRS impact for total recorded crime in this force. The trend in crime hasgenerally tracked the trend in incidents during the monitoring period, although there are some fluctuations in the ratiobetween the two variables.

34




21% 26% 23% 7% 19%4% 5% 4% 0% 3%1% 3% 4% 1% 2%3% 4% 3% -1% 2%0% 8% -1% -3% 1%

-6% -3% 0% -6% -4%-6% -6% -4% -3% -4%-1% 1% 3% -2% 0%

Greater ManchesterNational Crime Recording Standard – Part Two

35


Robbery

Total crime

All theft

Greater Manchester

Greater Manchester



= number of crimes



Gwent adopted the National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS) in April 2002 but has been excludedfrom the national estimates.

Gwent has stated that it is not aware of any changes to the count of crime-related incidents in the period of NCRSmonitoring. Since the increase in the number of incidents is considerable for this force, it would appear that themethodology adopted by the Home Office will underestimate the impact of the NCRS. In addition, Gwent has stated thatprevious reviews have identified errors with the closure of incident logs. For these reasons, this force has been excludedfrom the national estimates of the NCRS impact.

With reference to the force’s offence charts, the impact of the recording changes can be observed, although for Gwent thesituation is not straightforward.

Violence against the person – For violence against the person, there was a clear increase in the number of crimesbeing recorded around the time that the NCRS was adopted in April 2002. Its effect has continued to be visible in the datauntil August 2002. There was also an increase in the number of incidents at the time the force adopted the nationalStandard, which would cause the national methodology to underestimate the NCRS impact. The force has estimated a 57per cent NCRS impact on violence against the person offences for the five months following NCRS adoption.

Burglary dwelling – The force’s chart for burglary dwelling does not show a clear NCRS impact in April 2002. Thereappears to be a sharp increase in recorded burglaries in April 2002 but this rapidly subsides back to pre-NCRS levelsthereafter. Gwent estimates that it has experienced a NCRS impact of nine per cent on burglary dwelling offences in theperiod from April 2002 to August 2002.

Robbery – The number of robberies per month in Gwent are small and there is considerable variation in the data to theextent that it is not possible to suggest an NCRS impact for this offence category.

All theft – The statistics for all theft offences in Gwent show no clear NCRS impact. The number of crimes and incidentsshow an increase from February 2002, prior to NCRS adoption, peaking in August 2002. However, from this date andexcluding March 2003, all theft offences have generally tracked the trend in incidents.

Total crime – The forc e ’s chart for total re c o rded crime shows an increase in the re c o rding of crimes and incidents fro mM a rch 2002, peaking in July/August 2002. The data suggest that the crime figures for Gwent were affected by re c o rd i n gchanges in April 2002, at the time of NCRS adoption. The force estimates an NCRS impact of 29 per cent on total re c o rd e dcrime from April 2002 to August 2002 and from this date, the re c o rding changes appear to be complete in this forc e.

36




57%9%7%

2%

29%

GwentNational Crime Recording Standard – Part Two


Gwent

37


Robbery

Total crime

All theft

Gwent



= number of crimes



Hampshire adopted the National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS) in April 2002 but this force hasbeen excluded from the national estimates.

Hampshire is aware of a change to the count of crime-related incidents supplied in the monitoring data provided to theHome Office. The force acquired a new Command and Control (incident recording) System in April 2001. The new systemhas affected incident data, and this is clearly visible in the forc e ’s charts. Furt h e rm o re Hampshire recognises that theimplementation of the NCRS across BCUs and Divisions has not been as consistent as expected. This, together withproblems concerning the force’s Crime and Intelligence System has affected crime recording.

Violence against the person – For violence against the person offences, since May 2002, a month after NCRSimplementation, there is a considerable increase in the number of crimes. Incidents were also affected by theimplementation of the NCRS, and can be seen to be increasing from April 2002 to December 2002. It would appear thatit might take longer than 12 months for the NCRS impact to bed in for violence against the person offences in this force.

B u rg l a ry dwelling – For burg l a ry dwelling offences, there is a clear NCRS impact from implementation of therecording changes in April 2002. Before and after this month, the trend in crimes and incidents are generally consistent.S u r p r i s i n g l y, incidents fell dramatically in April 2002 and crimes did not rise. This suggests that the change in therecording ratio was more to do with changes in the capture of incidents rather than the effects of the NCRS.

Robbery – The number of robberies in Hampshire is small and, due to the natural variation in the data, no plausibleNCRS impact can be identified. From April 2002, the incident figures appear erratic and the number of crimes continuesto increase.

All theft – The statistics for all thefts in Hampshire indicate that there has been a large increase in the recording ratiofollowing NCRS implementation. The ratio decreased dramatically during quarter three of 2002/03 and then increasedfurther over the following quarter. It is therefore not possible to provide a reliable estimate of the NCRS impact in this force.

Total crime – Total crime in this force reflects the trends demonstrated in the violence against the person data, describedabove. From April 2002, the crime data show a clear and increasing NCRS impact. Despite the NCRS affecting crimetypes differently, it would appear that for total recorded crime in Hampshire, the NCRS impact may not be complete. Thecontinuing NCRS effect is likely to be due to increasing numbers of violence against the person offences being recorded,particularly in the last quarter of 2002/03.

38




HampshireNational Crime Recording Standard – Part Two


Hampshire

39


Robbery

Total crime

All theft

Hampshire



= number of crimes



H e rt f o rd s h i re adopted the National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS) in April 2002 and has beenincluded in the national estimates.

H e rt f o rd s h i re ’s adoption date coincided with the implementation of a Centralised Crime Recording Bureau (CCRB) and thishas led to a change in the count of crime-related incidents. The new crime bureau takes calls direct from the public whereo fficer attendance is not re q u i red and in these instances an incident is no longer created. Due to the introduction of theCCRB, the force has had to revise its methodology for producing incident statistics. It has produced new figures for ‘totalcrime demands’, which include crime incident logs, non-999 crimes with a direct re p o rt, and where no incident was cre a t e d ,and crimes without incident re c o rds re p o rted to front desks. This new data series is only available from April 2001.

Violence against the person – For violence against the person offences, there has been a clear and substantialincrease in the number of crimes being recorded relative to the trend in incidents. This increase took immediate effect inApril 2002. From August 2002, trends in both crimes and incidents appear to have been generally stable. It should benoted that the number of incidents (total crime demands) also increased from March 2002 to May 2002, which couldmean that the NCRS estimates using the national methodology understate the full impact of the recording changes. TheHome Office estimates a 55 per cent NCRS impact on violence against the person offences for the full year 2002/03.

B u rg l a ry dwelling – For burg l a ry dwelling offences in Hert f o rd s h i re, crimes and incidents have tracked each otherclosely over the whole of the monitoring period. There appears to be a small NCRS impact on burglary dwelling which theHome Office estimates at nine per cent for the full year 2002/03.

Robbery – The numbers of robberies in Hertfordshire are relatively small compared to other crimes and there is somevariation in the crime recording ratio. However, it appears that since April 2002, crimes and incidents track each othermore closely than prior to that date. Both crimes and incidents have shown a general increase since the NCRS and theCCRB were adopted. The impact of the NCRS is estimated to be around 16 per cent on robbery offences for the full year2002/03.

All theft – All theft statistics in Hertfordshire suggest a clear NCRS impact since April 2002. The number of incidents hasgenerally decreased since the time the NCRS and the new CCRB were adopted in April 2002. The number of crimeshowever has increased. Although the majority of the increase in crimes occurred from December 2001 to April 2002,prior to NCRS the impact of the recording changes is evidenced by the step change in the ratio of crimes to incidents inApril 2002. The change in the ratio has resulted in a 36 per cent estimate for the NCRS impact on all thefts across the year2002/03. The Home Office estimate of the NCRS impact appears to be less for vehicle thefts (11 per cent) than for otherthefts (57 per cent).

Total crime – Total recorded crime in this force shows a clear NCRS impact from April 2002, which marks the date ofadoption of both the Standard and the CCRB. Over the monitoring period, incidents appear to be generally stable – as istrue for crimes after the initial NCRS-related step change in April 2002. The Home Office estimates a 28 per cent NCRSimpact on total recorded crime for the full year 2002/03.

40




46% 45% 60% 56% 61% 55%5% 4% 9% 10% 13% 9%9% -2% 6% 3% 4% 2%7% 1% 8% 6% 8% 6%

11% 14% 22% 13% 16% 16%16% 9% 12% 12% 12% 11%

53% 60% 57% 60% 57%32% 37% 36% 38% 36%

18% 31% 38% 33% 32% 33%29% 26% 30% 28% 29% 28%

HertfordshireNational Crime Recording Standard – Part Two

41


Robbery

Total crime

All theft

Hertfordshire

Hertfordshire



= number of crimes



Humberside adopted the National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS) in April 2002 and has beenincluded in the national estimates.

Humberside’s adoption date is reflected by an increase in the ratio of crimes to incidents, which is visible in the force’schart for violence against the person offences.

The force is generally content with the analysis of the NCRS impact being applied by the Home Office, although hasadvised that incident codes have not always been accurately recorded. The force expressed concerns that this factor, aswell as the improved recording of incidents owing to NCRS implementation, would cause the national methodology tounderestimate the real impact for Humberside.

Violence against the person – For violence against the person offences, there has been a clear increase in thenumber of crimes being recorded relative to the number of incidents, as illustrated in the force’s chart. This increase incrime began in April 2002, when the force adopted the NCRS, and the number of incidents also increased to a lesserdegree. The Home Offices estimates that the NCRS effect is approximately 53 per cent for the whole of 2002/03 forviolence against the person offences in Humberside. However, in quarter four 2002/03, the number of crimes increased ata much greater rate than incidents, suggesting that the effect of recording changes is not complete for this offence type.

Burglary dwelling – The trends in the data for burglary dwelling crimes in Humberside indicate that the introduction ofthe NCRS from April 2002 had an estimated nine per cent impact for the year 2002/03. The consistency of this impactover the four quarters would suggest that the NCRS impact is complete for this offence type.

R o b b e ry – For robberies in Humberside, there is evidence of a clear impact from the re c o rding changes, despiteconsiderable variation from one month to the next. Both crimes and incidents have generally increased since June 2001,although the increase in April 2002 was more marked. The Home Office estimates a seven per cent NCRS impact for thefull year 2002/03 for robbery offences in this force. Owing to the variation in the quarterly NCRS estimates, it is not clearwhether the impact of the changes is yet complete for robbery in Humberside.

All theft – The incident and crime statistics for all theft in Humberside shows no clear impact from the introduction of theNCRS. There is a steady upward trend in the ratio between theft crimes and incidents, which is illustrated in the force’schart. The statistics for all theft provide some indication that recording for this category has been increasing slightly overthe whole of the monitoring period, irrespective of the April 2002 changes.

Total crime – For total crime in this force, the Home Office has estimated a nine per cent NCRS impact for the whole of2002/03. Both incidents and crimes appear to have notably increased in April 2002, although the number of crimes andincidents fell in June 2002. This trend suggests that these changes might be real, albeit short-term, increases in crimes. Anyincrease in incidents resulting from the impact of the recording changes is likely to result in an underestimate of the impactof the NCRS for this force. As of March 2003, it is not possible to state whether the impact of the changes to crimerecording are completely through for total crime in Humberside, as the estimated NCRS impact has continued to rise in thelast two quarters.

42




45% 52% 46% 48% 66% 53%10% 8% 10% 8% 10% 9%

5% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%7% 4% 5% 3% 4% 4%5% 4% 6% 16% 6% 7%5%4%5% 2% 0% 3% 4% 2%8% 6% 6% 11% 11% 8%

10% 8% 7% 10% 12% 9%

HumbersideNational Crime Recording Standard – Part Two

43


Robbery

Total crime

All theft

Humberside

Humberside



= number of crimes



Kent adopted the National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS) in April 2002, but introduced some ofthe organisational arrangements associated with the NCRS in 2000. The earlier recording changes in theforce were initially understood to have resulted in NCRS compliance, but full adoption of the new Standard only took placein April 2002, at the same time as the majority of forces. The force has been excluded from the national NCRSestimates.

Kent is aware of changes to the count of crime-related incidents that have occurred during the monitoring period. Kentmoved to a centralised call handling and incident creation system resulting in the adoption of new working practices. Theforce states that this will have undoubtedly had an impact on incident numbers in 2002/03, and hence a comparison ofcrimes against incidents will underestimate the full impact of introducing the NCRS.

Violence against the person – The data for violence against the person show a clear NCRS impact in April 2002.Owing to the associated increase in incident re c o rding around the time the force started to implement the NCRS, theestimates produced by the national methodology considerably understate the full impact of the NCRS on crime levels in thisforce. The impact of introducing the NCRS on crime and incident recording is clearly visible in the force’s chart at the timeof NCRS adoption in April 2002, continuing through to July 2002.

B u rg l a ry dwelling and ro b b e ry – For burg l a ry dwelling and ro b b e ry offences there appears to be no obviousimpact from the introduction of the NCRS. Despite a sharp rise in robbery between April 2002 and September 2002, it isnot obvious whether this increase relates to increased crime recording or real changes in the level of crime. In the lastquarter of 2002, and for the first time in the last three years, the trend in robbery crimes and incidents diverges. It is notclear why this might be.

All theft – The force’s chart for all theft indicates that there has been an increase in recording of this crime from October2001, although this does not appear to be a permanent change because the crime recording ratio falls back to pre-NCRSlevels in the following August. Over the monitoring period as a whole, incident numbers have remained relatively stable.

Total crime – For total crime, there is a clear, albeit short-lived increase in both crimes and incidents from around March2002 through to May 2002. However, from August 2002 to December 2002, there appears to be an increasing numberof crimes being recorded relative to incidents. As of March 2003, it is not possible to state whether this increase is aneffect of delayed recording changes or whether the NCRS process is now complete.

44




KentNational Crime Recording Standard – Part Two


45


Robbery

Total crime

All theft

Kent

Kent



= number of crimes



L a n c a s h i re adopted the National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS) in August 2000 and has beenincluded in the national estimates.

Lancashire’s adoption date is reflected by an increase in the ratio of crimes to incidents, which is visible in the force's chartfor burglary dwelling. Owing to the early adoption of the NCRS, it was expected that the NCRS would not have much, ifany, impact on the recorded crime figures during 2002/03.

The force is not aware of any changes to the count of crime-related incidents during the monitoring period.

Violence against the person – There has been a large drop in the number of incidents in comparison to crimes (whichrose over the same period), starting in September 2000 after the force introduced its new recording practices. Prior toNovember 2000, the ratio of crimes to incidents was less than 1:1, but by November 2001 it had risen to 1.8:1, a levelthat has been maintained since that date. The force’s chart shows two step changes in the ratio of crimes to incidents: thefirst from August 2000, and the second from late 2001. The Home Office estimates a 22 per cent NCRS impact onviolence against the person offences in Lancashire over 2002/03. However, this estimate does not nearly represent the fullextent of the NCRS impact on this force because it does not take into account the changes resulting from early adoption ofthe NCRS in 2000/01. Using the data from 12 months prior to the NCRS adoption in August 2000, the nationalmethodology estimates a 67 per cent NCRS impact for the 12 months ending July 2001. The overall impact of the NCRS inLancashire has been considerable owing to the increased recording of violence against the person offences over a periodof more than 12 months.

Burglary dwelling – The force’s chart for burglary dwelling offences, like violence against the person, shows a markedimpact of recording changes between August 2000 and the end of 2001, although the data fluctuate considerably. TheNCRS impact for 2002/03 is negligible because most of the effect will have been experienced in the preceding year.

Robbery – With the exception of a few months, fluctuations in robbery incidents broadly track crimes. There may havebeen some increase in recording from August 2000, but this does not appear to have continued beyond the end of 2000.Thereafter robbery recording appears stable. There is no evidence of any NCRS impact in 2002/03.

All theft – The force’s chart shows no clear NCRS impact from April 2002 to the end of 2002/03. However, it should benoted that most of the NCRS inflation occurred before August 2000, and is therefore not illustrated in the chart. Using thedata from 12 months prior to the NCRS adoption in August 2000, the national methodology estimates a 13 per centNCRS impact for all theft offences for the 12 months ending July 2001.

Total crime – The introduction of new recording practices in August 2000 took several months to bed in. The ratio ofcrimes to incidents did not really stabilise until November 2001. As would be expected, there was no marked change inthe ratio over 2002/03. Overall for 2002/03, the Home Office estimates that there has been a four per cent NCRSimpact. It is possible that the new crime recording principles may still not have completely bedded down for Lancashire.Using the data from 12 months prior to the NCRS adoption in August 2000, the national methodology estimates a 20 percent NCRS impact for total recorded crime for the 12 months ending July 2001.

46




23% 32% 24% 10% 22%0% -1% -1% -1% -1%1% 2% -3% -5% -1%1% 2% -1% -2% 0%2% 1% -18% -11% -7%

2% 2% 2% 0% 2%2% 5% 1% 1% 2%5% 8% 3% 1% 4%

LancashireNational Crime Recording Standard – Part Two

47


Robbery

Total crime

All theft

Lancashire

Lancashire



= number of crimes



L e i c e s t e r s h i re adopted the National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS) in April 2002 but has beenexcluded from the national estimates.

Leicestershire adoption date is reflected by an increase in the ratio of crimes to incidents, which is visible in the force’schart for violence against the person offences.

The force is aware of changes to the count of crime-related incidents that have occurred over the monitoring period owingin part to improved accuracy in identifying and recording crime-related incidents resulting from the force’s NCRS training.However, the force also adopted a Centralised Crime Recording Bureau in August 2002. As a consequence, non-attendantcrime is now being recorded directly onto the crime system without being duplicated as a crime-related incident. These twofactors combined, affect the number of incidents, and as a result this force has not been included in the national estimates.

Violence against the person – For violence against the person offences, there has been a clear increase in thenumber of crimes being recorded relative to the number of incidents from the date the force introduced the NCRS. Incidentre c o rding appeared to remain fairly stable when the NCRS was adopted, resulting in a large percentage impact ofrecording changes. The changes to incident recording, which are evident in the last quarter of the monitoring period, meanthat a NCRS estimate based on the full year for 2002/03 would be inaccurate for this crime type.

Burglary dwelling – The force’s burglary dwelling chart shows no clear NCRS impact at the time the force adopted theNCRS in April 2002. In fact, both the number of crimes and incidents remains fairly stable throughout the months followingimplementation. Despite the recording changes, the trends have largely tracked each other, suggesting that there was nosubstantial NCRS impact on domestic burglary in Leicestershire.

Robbery – There appears to be some possible impact of the NCRS on robbery in Leicestershire but this is quite variabledue to the relatively small numbers in this category. The forc e ’s re c o rded crime and incident statistics, subject tofluctuations, track each other well over the monitoring period and illustrate a general upward trend in robbery.

All theft – The force’s chart for all thefts in Leicestershire demonstrates a changing relationship between the crime andincident data. It would appear that around the time the force adopted the NCRS, there was an increase in the number ofcrimes (attributable to the NCRS effect) and also in the number of incidents (due to the changes in the force’s incidentrecording system). It is not possible to estimate the size of this effect, but the close relationship between the two trends afterApril 2002 would suggest that there has been no continuing impact of the recording changes.

Total crime – For total crime in this force, the trend in incidents mirrors the trend in recorded crimes. The number ofcrimes and incidents both rose over the period March to May 2002, and it is likely that some of this rise was due to theintroduction of the NCRS. There is no evidence of any further impact at this point.

48




LeicestershireNational Crime Recording Standard – Part Two


49


Robbery

Total crime

All theft

Leicestershire

Leicestershire



= number of crimes



Lincolnshire adopted the National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS) in February 2002 but has beenexcluded from the national estimates.

Lincolnshire’s adoption date is reflected by an increase in the ratio of crimes to incidents, which is visible in the force’schart for violence against the person offences.

The force is aware of changes to the count of crime-related incidents over the monitoring period, and in particular, theincident count has increased as a result of the changes introduced in relation to the NCRS. Since the increase in thenumber of incidents is considerable for this force, it would appear that the methodology adopted by the Home Off i c ewould considerably underestimate the impact of the NCRS. For this reason the force has been excluded from the nationalestimates of the NCRS impact. In addition, one of the three divisions in Lincolnshire changed to ‘ethical crime recording’ inSeptember/October 2001, which may have also affected the crime to incident ratio. Lastly, the start of NCRS training inearly 2002, and the restructuring of working practices from the middle of 2002 have had an impact on the data for thisforce.

With reference to the force’s charts, the impact of the recording changes can be observed, although the overall picture ofthe NCRS impact in Lincolnshire is not straightforward.

Violence against the person – For violence against the person offences, there is a clear NCRS effect from March2002. A substantial increase in the number of crimes being recorded relative to the trend in incidents is visible from NCRSadoption, although the number of incidents also increased in March 2002. The number of crimes has tracked the numberof incidents from April 2002 showing a rise until August 2002 and since this date, a fall until February 2003.

Burglary dwelling – Burglary dwelling crimes in Lincolnshire show a general increase in both crimes and incidents fromMarch 2002 to August 2002. Similar to the chart for violence against the person offences, the rise in incidents from thetime of NCRS adoption may understate the impact of the recording changes. It is possible that a proportion of this increasein burglary in Lincolnshire over this period, is a product of the recording changes. Again, similar to the force’s chart forviolence against the person offences, there appears to be a genuine decrease in burglary dwelling offences from August2003 until February 2003.

Robbery – The number of robberies in Lincolnshire are small and there exists too much variation in the data to suggestany NCRS impact.

All theft – The statistics for all theft offences in Lincolnshire show a clear increase in both the number of crimes andincidents since implementation. The dramatic increase in the number of incidents from the time of NCRS adoption will haveserved to understate the impact of the recording changes and it is unlikely that this increase is real. From August 2002crimes have tracked the fall in incidents until February 2003.

Total crime – For total recorded crime in this force, there is a clear increase in the number of crimes and incidents fromMarch 2002 until May 2002. However, from this date, both incidents and crimes fell until February 2003. The force’s totalrecorded crime chart suggests that both crime and incident figures in Lincolnshire were clearly affected by the NCRS. Thenational methodology would therefore underestimate the impact of the recording changes in this force.

50




LincolnshireNational Crime Recording Standard – Part Two


51


Robbery

Total crime

All theft

Lincolnshire

Lincolnshire



= number of crimes



City of London adopted the National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS) in April 2002 but has beenexcluded from the national estimates.

City of London‘s adoption date is reflected by a large increase in the number of crimes relative to the number of incidents,which is visible in the force’s chart for violence against the person offences.

The force is not aware of any changes to the count of crime-related incidents during the monitoring period. The smallnumber of crimes in this force means that the measured NCRS impacts are unreliable. As a result, this force has not beenincluded in the national NCRS estimate.

With reference to the force’s charts, it is evident that the impact of the NCRS recording changes on City of London is notstraightforward.

Violence against the person – For violence against the person offences, there has been a clear increase in thenumber of crimes being recorded relative to the number of incidents from April 2002. The variation resulting from the smallnumber of crimes and incidents means that it is difficult to estimate the percentage impact of the NCRS. However, the dataf rom City of London clearly suggest that violence against the person offences have been affected by crime re c o rd i n gchanges. The force has stated that for the whole of 2002/03, it has experienced a 57 per cent recording increase, ofwhich, approximately half can be attributed to the NCRS.

Burglary dwelling and robbery – The number of burg l a ry dwelling offences and ro b b e ry offences are too small (i.e.often less than 10 offences per month) to provide a clear estimate of the NCRS impact on these crimes. City of London agre e sthat the very small number of these offences means that small changes have a dispro p o rtionately large percentage eff e c t .

All theft – There is no clear picture for the NCRS impact on all thefts. Although the number of crimes increased in May2002, since NCRS implementation, the force has experienced a general decrease in the number of crimes and an increasein the number of incidents, indicating that a negative NCRS impact is likely. The deviation in the incident count is likely tobe the cause of this finding.

Total crime – Similar to all theft, it is not possible to estimate a NCRS impact for total crime. Furthermore, City of Londonstates that the profile of crime in the City has changed for reasons unrelated to implementation of the NCRS. For example,over the last year, police officer strength in the force has increased by 11 per cent, which has resulted in increases inpolicing activity in offences such as drug offences, shoplifting and unauthorised taking of motor vehicles. This represents af u rther reason why the analysis being applied by the Home Office for the City of London will not provide a re l i a b l eindication of the impact of the NCRS for this force.

52




44%0%-6%5%1%0%

1%7%2%

London, City of National Crime Recording Standard – Part Two


53


Robbery

Total crime

All theft

London, City of

London, City of



= number of crimes



Merseyside adopted the National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS) in April 2002 but has beenexcluded from the national estimates.

Merseyside has supplied the Home Office with data up to December 2002; however, data for quarter four 2002/03(January 2003 to March 2003) has not been supplied.

The force has stated that its incident count is derived from closing codes based on information provided by thereporting/attending officer. This information is ultimately subject to the influence of that officer, and therefore the force’sincident count may have been affected by the changes in recording standards. The force has advised that in the case ofMerseyside, incident occurrence is not a ‘true’ measure of demand. The Home Office acknowledges that this concern maybe justified from the available data.

Violence against the person – The force’s chart for violence against the person offences shows a clear NCRS impactin April 2002 when the force adopted the NCRS. Although incidents increased during quarters one and two of 2002/03,the number of crimes increased at a greater rate than incidents, resulting in an increasing ratio of crimes to incidents.

Burglary dwelling and robbery – The force’s charts for burglary dwelling and robbery offences show no clear NCRSinflation at the time of NCRS adoption in April 2002, nor thereafter. The data for robbery and burglary suggest someincrease in recording from April 2002, although the impact appears to be limited. The number of recorded burglariesappear to have tracked the number of incidents quite closely, suggesting that the trends in burglary may be real rather thana product of the recording changes. The force disagrees with this assessment, believing that there was a considerableNCRS impact on both of these offence types.

All theft – The force’s chart for all theft shows no clear or specific NCRS impact in April 2002, at the time of NCRSadoption. However, there is a sharp step change in the crime recording ratio in September 2002. This suggests that theNCRS impact was not immediate but occurred five months after the national implementation date for all theft offences. Thelarge NCRS impact visible in the force’s chart in quarter three of 2002/03 is a result of the dramatic fall in the number ofincidents in December 2002. Owing to the missing data, there is not sufficient evidence to state whether there is anycontinuing NCRS impact on this offence type.

Total crime – The force’s chart for total recorded crime shows no clear NCRS impact specifically at the time of NCRSadoption, although the increase in incidents may be NCRS related, and this would lead the national methodology tounderestimate the impact of the changes. The force has suggested an increase of 20 - 25 per cent in total recorded crimeas a result of the introduction of the NCRS, although this has not been verified. Without the data for the full year 2002/03,it is not possible to assess the NCRS impact for total recorded crime, and no explanation has been provided as to why thegap between crimes and incidents appears to have widened in the third quarter of 2002/03.

54




40 - 50%20 - 25%

30 - 40%0%

20 - 25%

MerseysideNational Crime Recording Standard – Part Two


55


Robbery

Total crime

All theft

Merseyside

Merseyside



= number of crimes



The Metropolitan Police Service (MPS) adopted the National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS) in April2002 and has been included in the national estimates.

The adoption date for the MPS is reflected by an increase in the ratio of crimes to incidents, which is visible in the force’scharts for the five main crime types.

The MPS has highlighted changes to the count of crime-related incidents during the monitoring period. The force believesthat the decline in the incident count from April 2002 is in part due to reduced reporting of crime and also a major effort toreduce the load on its incident-response system, for example, through advertisements that urge the public not to call 999unless immediate response is required. However, it is likely that this activity would have resulted in a gradual change anddoes not explain the clear step change in the recording ratio in April 2002.

The introduction of the NCRS may have increased the number of incidents of violence against the person, which means thatthe national methodology is likely to understate the full effect of the recording changes. However, this will be offset by theforce’s initiatives to decrease the load on the incident-response system.

Violence against the person – For violence against the person, there has been a clear increase in the number ofcrimes being re c o rded relative to the number of incidents. This increase began in October 2001, pre-dating theintroduction of the NCRS, and continued to be visible in the data up to May 2002. Incidents increased slightly at the timeof implementation but from July 2002 re c o rded crimes have tracked the general trend in incidents. The Home Off i c eestimates a 20 per cent NCRS impact for the full year 2002/03. As of March 2002, it appears that the NCRS is completefor this offence type.

Burglary dwelling – Burglary dwelling crimes in the MPS show a small NCRS impact since the recording changes wereimplemented. Crimes and incidents track each other throughout the entire monitoring period (note that the fluctuations inthe recording ratio shown in the chart are numerically very small). The Home Office estimates a NCRS impact of four percent on burglary dwelling offences for 2002/03.

R o b b e ry – The figures for ro b b e ry suggest a small NCRS impact from April 2002. Similar to the chart for burg l a rydwelling, the number of robbery crimes track the fall in incidents. The Home Office estimates a five per cent NCRS impacton robbery offences in the MPS for the full year 2002/03.

All theft – The statistics for all theft show a clear NCRS impact from the date of NCRS adoption. The number of recordedtheft offences increases until July 2002, in contrast to the number of incidents, which decreases over the same period. It ispossible that the widening of the gap between crimes and incidents is partly due to force’s attempt to reduce the load onthe incident-response system. The Home Office estimates a 12 per cent impact from changes in recording practice on alltheft offences in the MPS for the full year 2002/03.

Total crime – For total recorded crime, there appears to be a clear and relatively immediate NCRS impact around thetime the Standard was adopted in the MPS. The force’s chart shows a clear step change in the ratio of crimes to incidentsfrom April 2002. For the full year 2002/03, the Home Office estimates the NCRS impact is 12 per cent. From May 2002the number of crimes has tracked the decrease in incidents suggesting that the trends in crime are real.

56




20% 23% 18% 19% 21% 20%4% 4% 5% 3% 4%6% 6% 5% 2% 5%

3% 6% 5% 4% 2% 4%5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 5%

13% 11% 15% 14% 9% 12%8% 10% 9% 8% 6% 9%

12% 12% 12% 12% 10% 12%

MetropolitanNational Crime Recording Standard – Part Two

57


Robbery

Total crime

All theft

Metropolitan

Metropolitan



= number of crimes



Norfolk adopted the National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS) in April 2002 and has been includedin the national estimates.

N o rf o l k ’s adoption date is reflected by an increase in the ratio of crimes to incidents, which is visible in the forc e ’s charts forviolence against the person, burg l a ry dwelling and total crime. The NCRS effect appears to be both clear and short - t e rm .

The force is aware of changes to its count of crime-related incidents, particularly in the last 18 months. The force’s incidentcount may have been affected by the implementation of the national Standard. Therefore, the Home Office estimates of theNCRS impact are likely to understate the full impact of the recording changes in the force, although this impact does notappear to be large. Norfolk suggests that the NCRS may have increased the number of recorded incidents by around threeper cent, in addition to the anticipated increase in recorded crimes. In February 2002, the force introduced training on theNCRS, and some inflation is apparent from this month.

Violence against the person – With re f e rence to the forc e ’s chart, a marked impact of the NCRS is visible. Bothcrimes and incidents increased from February to June 2002, although the trend in the number of recorded crimes rosesubstantially more than the trend in incident numbers over this period. If related to the introduction of the NCRS, the rise inincident numbers will serve to underestimate the NCRS impact on this offence type. The Home Office estimates a 35 percent NCRS impact on violence against the person offences for the full year 2002/03.

Burglary dwelling – The force’s chart for burglary dwelling shows a clear NCRS impact in April 2002. The initial risein the recording of domestic burglary may be partly the result of a clearer application of the Home Office counting rules.The Home Office estimates an 11 per cent NCRS impact on burglary dwelling offences for the full year 2002/03.

Robbery – The number of robbery offences in Norfolk are relatively small. As a result, there is considerable variation inthe data, to the extent that it is not possible to state a plausible NCRS impact.

All theft – For all theft offences, there has been a clear NCRS impact in April 2002. The number of crimes increased fromMarch 2002 to August 2002, and then decreased until February 2003. In comparison, the number of incidents recordedover this period has remained relatively stable or declined. The Home Office estimates a 24 per cent NCRS impact on alltheft offences in Norfolk for the full year 2002/03.

Total crime – For total re c o rded crime, there is a marked NCRS impact for this force. The number of crimes relative to thenumber of incidents (re p resented by the ratio bar in the forc e ’s chart) starts to increase in April 2002, peaking in October2002. The Home Office estimates a 16 per cent NCRS impact for total re c o rded crime for the full year 2002/03 in Norf o l k .

58




50% 50% 36% 33% 22% 35%-8% 14% 9% 9% 11% 11%

-11% -11% -14% -6% -8% -10%-2% 6% -2% 1% 4% 2%5% 5% -5% 1% -7% -1%

18% 18% 22% 31% 27% 24%14% 14% 22% 27% 28% 23%12% 14% 14% 20% 18% 16%

NorfolkNational Crime Recording Standard – Part Two

59


Robbery

Total crime

All theft

Norfolk

Norfolk



= number of crimes



North Wales adopted the National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS) in October 2001 but has beenexcluded from the national estimates.

North Wales’ adoption date is reflected by an increase in the ratio of crimes to incidents, which is visible in the force’sc h a rt for violence against the person offences. NCRS implementation appears to have taken around seven months,although there is little evidence of any further effect after May 2002.

The force is not aware of any changes to the count of crime-related incidents over the monitoring period, although the forc eadopted a Centralised Crime Recording Bureau in April 2000. The NCRS is likely to have resulted in inflation of incidentre c o rding in some crime categories owing to the nature of the incident re c o rding system. A large increase in the number ofincidents re c o rded by this force means that the methodology adopted by the Home Office would substantially undere s t i m a t ethe impact of the NCRS. For this reason, North Wales has been excluded from the national estimates of the NCRS impact.

With reference to the force’s charts, the impact of the recording changes can be observed, although in North Wales theyare not straightforward.

Violence against the person – For violence against the person, there has been a clear increase in the number ofcrimes being recorded relative to the number of incidents. This increase began in October 2001, but its effect continued tobe visible in the data up to May 2002. There was no increase in incident recording at the time of NCRS adoption, andalthough the number of violence against the person incidents were increasing between March 2002 and August 2002,some of these increases are likely to be real. The force estimates that the recording changes increased all violent crime(violence against the person, sexual offences and robbery offences) by around 36 per cent in 2002/03.

Burglary dwelling – B u rg l a ry dwelling has experienced an increase in both crimes and incidents, since October 2001.F rom March 2002, there is a greater gap between the number of crimes and incidents, suggesting a marked impact ondomestic burg l a ry from this date, probably due to clarification of the counting rules. However, between March 2002 andAugust 2002 the rise in burg l a ry dwelling has tracked the rise in incidents, which indicates that there may have been a re a li n c rease over this period. The force has estimated a two per cent NCRS impact on burg l a ry dwelling offences for 2002/03.

Robbery – The numbers of robberies in North Wales are small, and there is too much natural variation in the data tosuggest any NCRS impact on this crime.

All theft – The NCRS impact for all theft offences in North Wales is unclear, largely owing to some noticeable changes inincident re c o rding over this period. The reasons for this are uncertain. The force estimates that re c o rding changes account fora three per cent increase in vehicle theft (theft of and from a vehicle offences) and a seven per cent increase in other theft for2 0 0 2 / 0 3 .

Total crime – Owing to the complicated nature of the NCRS impact for the majority of the offence types in North Wales,the NCRS impact on recorded crime as a whole in 2002/03 is unclear. The force suggests that there has been a NCRSimpact of 11 per cent during 2002/03 – most of which appears to occur in the first quarter of 2002/03. As expectedsome inflation is visible from NCRS adoption in October 2001, but any further impact of the recording changes does notappear to have continued much beyond May 2002; from this month, the trends in both crimes and incidents appearrelatively consistent.

60




2%

3%7%

8%11%

North WalesNational Crime Recording Standard – Part Two


61


Robbery

Total crime

All theft

North Wales

North Wales



= number of crimes



North Yorkshire adopted the National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS) in January 2002 and hasbeen included in the national estimates.

North Yorkshire’s adoption date is reflected by an increase in the ratio of crimes to incidents, which is visible in the force’scharts for violence against the person offences and total recorded crime.

The force is not aware of any changes to the count of crime-related incidents over the monitoring period. However, itappears that the introduction of the NCRS in January 2002, may have affected the incident count for this force, leading tothe national methodology understating the NCRS impact. The 2001/02 baseline upon which the majority of the forcesincluded in the national NCRS estimate is based is unsuitable for North Yo r k s h i re. The NCRS analysis for this forc etherefore compares each of the quarters of 2002/03, with the average recording ratio over nine months (from quarter oneto quarter three 2001/02) rather than the full 12 months of 2001/02 normally used.

Violence against the person – For violence against the person offences, the data appear to have been affected by thechange in re c o rding practices. Since January 2002, the number of crimes and incidents has noticeably incre a s e d ,although the increase in crime has been greater. A dramatic real increase in crime appears unlikely, as the inflation ofincident numbers owing to NCRS implementation underestimates the impact of the recording changes in North Yorkshire.The Home Office estimates a 42 per cent NCRS impact on violence against the person offences for the full year 2002/03.As of March 2003, it is not possible to state whether the NCRS impact is complete for this offence type.

Burglary dwelling – The NCRS has affected the recording of burglary dwelling offences. Again, it is plausible thatincident numbers have been affected by the introduction of the NCRS. The rise in the number of incidents and crimesrecorded in the force began almost a year prior to the adoption of the NCRS, and so may to some extent be real. TheHome Office estimates an eight per cent NCRS impact on burglary dwelling offences for the full year 2002/03 in NorthYorkshire.

Robbery – The number of robberies in North Yorkshire is very small and there is considerable fluctuation in the data. Ageneral increase in both the number of crimes and the number of incidents is visible in the force’s robbery chart from early2001, which predates the introduction of NCRS in the force. As a result, it is not possible to suggest a plausible NCRSimpact, although an impact cannot be ruled out.

All theft – The statistics for all theft offences indicate that has been a NCRS impact on this offence type. The number ofcrimes and incidents has increased since the introduction of the NCRS in January 2002; some of the increase may be dueto the recording changes. From April 2002, incidents have tracked the fall in crimes. The Home Office estimates a NCRSimpact of six per cent on all theft offences for the full year 2002/03 in this force.

Total crime – There appears to have been inflation of the total number of recorded crimes in North Yorkshire due to theNCRS. The number of crimes and incidents has increased since the Standard was implemented in January 2002, althoughsome of that increase predates the introduction of the NCRS by around 12 months. The Home Office estimates a NCRSimpact of 11 per cent on total re c o rded crime for the full year 2002/03. North Yo r k s h i re considers this to be anunderestimate of full NCRS impact experienced by the force.

62




37% 35% 35% 65% 42%6% 9% 6% 12% 8%-2% -2% 1% 6% 1%1% 3% 3% 8% 3%

14% 25% 2% 29% 17%

5% 5% 1% 12% 6%15% 15% 12% 26% 17%9% 9% 6% 20% 11%

North YorkshireNational Crime Recording Standard – Part Two

63


Robbery

Total crime

All theft

North Yorkshire

North Yorkshire



= number of crimes



N o rt h a m p t o n s h i re adopted the National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS) in April 2002 and hasbeen included in the national estimates.

Northamptonshire’s adoption date is reflected by an increase in the ratio of crimes to incidents, which is visible in theforce’s charts for violence against the person offences.


Violence against the person – With reference to the force’s violence against the person chart, a clear increase in theratio of crimes to incidents from April 2002 when force adopted the NCRS, can be observed. Increases in the recordingincidents (and crimes) began in March 2002, a month prior to the implementation of the NCRS, which if associated withthe adoption of the NCRS, will serve to underestimate the impact of the recording changes. From April 2002, the numberof incidents appeared to stabilise, whereas the recording of crime continued to rise sharply. The general decrease fromAugust 2002 to February 2003 (and subsequent increase in March 2003) in the number of crimes and incidents wouldappear to be real, owing to the fact that the two series track each other closely. The Home Office estimates a 47 per centNCRS impact on violence against the person offences for 2002/03. Given the stability of the crime recording ratio fromMay 2002, it is likely that the recording changes have bedded in for violence against the person in Northamptonshire.

Burglary dwelling – Burglary dwelling crimes in Northamptonshire show a very small NCRS impact across all quartersin 2002/03. The number of crimes tracks the rise in incidents since July 2001 and this appears to be a real rise in crime.The number of burglary crimes and incidents appear to stabilise from April 2002 to December 2002; from February 2003they decrease. It would appear that the NCRS impact is through for this offence type.

R o b b e ry – The NCRS impact on ro b b e ry is unclear. There appears to be a marked NCRS effect in quarter one of2002/03, which is greatly reduced in the remaining quarters in 2002/03. There is a sharp rise in the number of crimesand incidents in April 2002, which decreases again in May 2002. This short-term fluctuation may explain the high NCRSestimate for quarter one of 2002/03. For the full year 2002/03, there appears to be a small NCRS impact of three percent. There is evidence to suggest that the NCRS has now bedded in for robbery.

All theft – The statistics for all theft for the full year 2002/03 show a NCRS impact of 12 per cent. This represents anincrease in the recording of crimes at the time of NCRS adoption in April 2002. There appears to have been considerablevariability in the estimates for the NCRS impact on theft (and also criminal damage) over the course of the year, althoughthe trends in the two series are broadly consistent.

Total crime – For total crime in this force, the national methodology estimates a 12 per cent NCRS impact for the full year2002/03. The number of crimes and incidents appear to increase from March 2002, a month prior to NCRSimplementation. The increase in the number of incidents, if related to NCRS adoption, would serve to underestimate theNCRS impact. The increase in the number of recorded crimes appears to stablise in May 2002 and since quarter two of2002/03, the NCRS impact has remained fairly stable. It would appear that the impact has bedded in for total crime.

64




50% 49% 44% 45% 47%2% 2% 1% 0% 1%-8% 4% -4% 4% -1%-4% 0% -3% 1% -2%

12% 1% 3% -6% 3%

7% 11% 22% 9% 12%15% 12% 25% 21% 18%

12% 6% 13% 16% 13% 12%

NorthamptonshireNational Crime Recording Standard – Part Two

65


Robbery

Total crime

All theft

Northamptonshire

Northamptonshire



= number of crimes



N o rthumbria adopted the National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS) in April 2002 but has beenexcluded from the national estimates.

There have been changes to the count of crime-related incidents within the last three years in Northumbria, which havemade it difficult to apply the national methodology to monitor the NCRS impact. In April 2001, a change to the structure ofthe final incident codes was implemented within the force’s Command and Control System. From this point, the force hasbeen unable to compile the number of crime-related incidents for individual categories of crime. Hence, the charts for thisforce illustrate only the trends in recorded crimes, not incidents.

Northumbria has carried out its own analysis of the NCRS impact on the force, based on an audit of approximately 4,000incidents per year over four years (a much larger sample than that re q u i red by the external auditors). The force auditc o m p a res incidents’ conversion to crimes, preceding the introduction of the NCRS and after its implementation. Wi d econfidence intervals around the estimates are given owing to the method used. These estimates are shown in the tablebelow. Although this analysis is not consistent with the national methodology, the Home Office is content with the approachtaken by Northumbria.

Violence against the person – There was a sharp increase in the number of violence against the person offencesrecorded in Northumbria in April 2002, which coincides with the force’s adoption of the NCRS. With reference to thecrime data, it would seem reasonable to assume that a substantial proportion of this rise relates to NCRS implementation,and the trend in crime appears to stabilise from June 2002. The force estimates the impact of the NCRS on violenceagainst the person offences in Northumbria to be 106 per cent from April 2002.

Burglary dwelling and robbery – The force’s charts for burglary dwelling and robbery offences appear to show noclear NCRS impact. For domestic burglary offences, there is no visible increase in April 2002, when the force adoptedNCRS principles. The NCRS impact on robbery is complicated by the small number of crimes, which results in considerablenatural variation in the data. However, based on the data, it would appear unlikely that there was a large NCRS impacton robbery. These conclusions support Northumbria’s NCRS analysis for burglary dwelling and robbery in the force.

All theft – The force’s chart for all theft shows that there has been an increase in the number of thefts in the early monthsof 2002, however, it is not clear if this increase was due to the preparation and anticipation of the NCRS or the result of areal increase in crime. The number of crimes does become fairly stable from May 2002, at a higher level than in 2000and 2001, indicating that Northumbria has experienced a NCRS impact for all theft offences. The force estimates a 10 percent NCRS effect for all theft offences from April 2002.

Total crime – The data for total re c o rded crime reflect the trends in all theft over the monitoring period, with one notableexception – a greater increase in the number of total re c o rded offences in April 2002. This relatively larger peak in total crime canbe attributed to the increase in the number of violence against the person offences re c o rded by the force. As a result, consideringall re c o rded crime, there is a distinct increase in the number of offences in April 2002 coinciding with the introduction of theS t a n d a rd. The force estimates an impact of approximately 25 per cent on total re c o rded crime from April 2002.

66

NorthumbriaNational Crime Recording Standard – Part Two

Northumbria – Force’s results from a sample audit of crime-related incidents

Northumbria’s estimate of NCRS effect on crime categories in the forceCrime category Percentage of incidents Ratio Estimate 95% confidence

judged as crime-related of effect intervalfor which a crime report of NCRS

had been submittedPre NCRS Post NCRS

1998/99 – April – Sept2001/02 2002

Violence against the person 34% 70% 2.07 +106% +71% to +142%Sexual offences 75% 71% 0.94 -6% -50% to +39%Burglary 83% 83% 1.00 0% -7% to +7%Robbery 90% 83% 0.93 -7% -31% to +17%All theft and handling stolen goods 78% 86% 1.10 +10% +5% to +15%Criminal damage 61% 82% 1.35 +35% +25% to +44%Other notifiable offences 35% 85% 2.47 +147% +93% to +201%Total notifiable offences 66% 82% 1.25 +25% +21% to +29%

67


Robbery

Total crime

All theft

Northumbria

Northumbria



= number of crimes



Nottinghamshire adopted the National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS) in April 2002 but this forcehas been excluded from the national estimates.

Nottinghamshire is aware of changes to the count of crime-related incidents. In the autumn of 2001, the force migratedfrom divisional control rooms to a centralised control room. This has had an impact on the ratio of crimes to incidents.Whilst control rooms were located at divisions, it was common for people reporting crimes to be referred to a police officerand for the crime to be recorded without an incident being generated. However, a centralised control room ended thispractice, and incidents are now created and then passed to divisions to be actioned.

When the force adopted the Standard, the number of incidents increased at a greater rate than the number of crimes. Forthis reason the analysis of the NCRS impact being applied by the Home Office is not appropriate for this force. In addition,the force has stated that it adopted prima facie standards of recording practices in April 1998 following criticism of itsp revious re c o rding practices. Nottinghamshire believes that the NCRS has mainly affected violence against the personoffences, which have been influenced by the guidance relating to third party reporting.

Violence against the person – For violence against the person offences, the statistics and the force’s own estimatessuggest a negative NCRS impact. Incidents appear to rise between April 2002 and June 2002, and it is likely that therehave been no further significant NCRS impacts since this date. However, the pre-existing prima facie approach adopted bythis force is likely to have gone beyond the standards set in the NCRS, and therefore results in a negative estimate for theimpact of the NCRS.

B u rg l a ry dwelling – For burg l a ry dwelling crimes in Nottinghamshire the number of both crimes and incidents areshown to be increasing at a similar rate and tracking each other.

Robbery – The statistics for ro b b e ry offences in Nottinghamshire fluctuate considerably but there appears to have been aconsistent increase in both crimes and incidents from late 2000 to at least January 2002, prior to the adoption of the NCRS.

All theft – The statistics for all theft in Nottinghamshire suggest a reduction in the recording of crimes in recent quarters.This decrease is largely the result of an increase in the number of incidents, relative to crimes from May 2002 which isrepresented in the chart by a decreasing ratio.

Total crime – With reference to the force’s chart for total recorded crime, the number of crimes appears stable followingthe introduction of the NCRS. Quarter four of 2002/03 shows a general increase in both the numbers of crimes andincidents whilst the ratio remains stable. The national methodology, although inappropriate for this force, would suggest anegative NCRS impact for all crime types for this force. This is likely to be due to, firstly, the basis for prima facie recordingbeing in place prior to the introduction of the NCRS, and secondly albeit to a lesser extent, to the changes in incidentrecording. Taking these two factors into account, it is possible to conclude that the impact of the NCRS in this force is likelyto have been negligible for 2002/03.

68




-8%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%-1%

NottinghamshireNational Crime Recording Standard – Part Two


69


Robbery

Total crime

All theft

Nottinghamshire

Nottinghamshire



= number of crimes



South Wales adopted the National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS) in April 2002 and has beenincluded in the national estimates.

In South Wales, three out of seven BCUs began using a Centralised Crime Recording Bureau for non–urgent crimes inDecember 2001. The remaining BCU’s adopted this system at different points in 2002. It is possible that these changescould have affected the stability of this force’s incident count during the monitoring period. However, the consistency of thedata for a comparison of crimes to incidents does not appear to have been greatly affected.

The force estimates that the introduction of a more effective incident recording system in October 2001 led to a six per centincrease in the number of incidents from April to September 2002, compared to the same period in 2001. Again, this maylead to the national methodology understating the full impact of the recording changes. The force has carried out its ownanalyses based on the conversion rate of a sample of incidents into crimes and although unverified, the force’s NCRSestimates are included below.

Violence against the person – For violence against the person, there is a clear increase in the ratio from April 2002.The Home Office estimates a 25 per cent NCRS impact for the 2002/03, and the force estimates a 33 per cent NCRSimpact. The number of re c o rded incidents increased slightly from March 2002 – this could be a result of changes toincident recording occurring within the force at the time of NCRS adoption, or else could represent a real increase inincidents. The number of crimes also increased from this date. The NCRS impact increases gradually over 2002/03. As ofMarch 2003, it is unclear whether the NCRS impact is complete for violence against the person offences.

Burglary dwelling – The force’s chart for burglary dwelling is not clear, although the number of crimes track incidentsconsistently over the monitoring period. The Home Office estimates that the NCRS impact for South Wales is five per centfor 2002/03, and the force estimates a NCRS impact of 11 per cent. The number of incidents and crimes increased fromthe beginning of 2002, which suggests a real rise in the number of burglary dwelling offences, predating NCRS adoption.

Robbery – Robberies are relatively uncommon in South Wales, which makes the NCRS effect difficult to monitor. Thenational methodology produces a negative NCRS estimate of minus six per cent, owing to the number of incidentsincreasing at a greater rate than crimes. The force's own calculations show a very different NCRS impact of approximately23 per cent.

All theft – For all theft offences, the number of incidents seems to have been relatively unaffected by the introduction ofthe NCRS, whilst the number of crimes continued to rise. The crime recording ratio remained fairly constant until October2001, when it began to steadily increase. The Home Office estimates a 22 per cent NCRS impact on all theft offences for2002/03, which is somewhat higher than the force’s estimates of 14 per cent for vehicle crime, and 12 per cent for otherthefts. As of March 2003, it is not clear whether the NCRS impact is complete.

Total crime – The statistics for total recorded crime follows a similar pattern to all theft. An increase in recording started inOctober 2001. A further step change occurred in quarter three 2002/03. The Home Office, like the force, estimates a 17per cent NCRS impact on total recorded crime in South Wales for the full year 2002/03.

70




33% 22% 17% 30% 31% 25%11% 5% 6% 3% 5% 5%8% 1% -1% -3% -6% -2%

3% 1% -1% -1% 0%23% -11% 3% -10% -5% -6%14% 14% 16%12% 17% 25%

13% 18% 30% 27% 22%17% 11% 13% 16% 9% 12%17% 13% 14% 22% 19% 17%

South WalesNational Crime Recording Standard – Part Two

71


Robbery

Total crime

All theft

South Wales

South Wales



= number of crimes



South Yorkshire adopted the National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS) in April 2002 and has beenincluded in the national NCRS estimates.

South Yorkshire appears to have experienced the largest NCRS-related increases in recorded crime for violence against theperson offences.


Violence against the person – The force’s chart for violence against the person offences illustrates a clear step changein the ratio of crimes to incidents in April 2002, when the force started to implement the NCRS. The sharp increase in thenumber of crimes, owing to the changes in recording, and the steady decrease in the number of incidents, suggest thatthere has actually been a real decrease in the number of violence against the person offences from April 2002/03. TheHome Office estimates that South Yo r k s h i re has experienced a NCRS impact of about 89 per cent for 2002/03 as awhole, for this offence type. The table above demonstrates that the NCRS impact has been increasing over the course ofthe year. At the end of quarter four 2002/03, violence against the person offences in South Yo r k s h i re appear to bea p p roximately 130 per cent greater than they would have been without the NCRS. It is there f o re possible that therecording changes are not yet complete for this offence.

Burglary dwelling – For burglary dwelling, the force’s chart illustrates that the count of crimes and incidents track eachother closely. Since April 2002, there is little evidence to suggest that there has been a NCRS impact for domestic burglaryoffences in South Yorkshire.

Robbery – The force’s chart for robbery shows that there has been an increase in the crime recording ratio from April2002, the date of NCRS adoption. The number of incidents and crimes appears to have fallen in quarter three of2002/03. This indicates a real decrease in robbery by the latter part of 2002, although there has been a drop in there c o rding ratio in the final quarter of 2002/03, which should be closely monitored in the future. The Home Off i c eestimates a 21 per cent NCRS impact in this force.

All theft – The force’s chart for all theft shows that prior to April 2002, when the force adopted the NCRS, the ratiobetween crimes and incidents is stable. After the Standard has been introduced, the recording of crime begins to rise. Theimplementation of the recording changes in South Yorkshire appears to have been gradual, but seems to have stabilised byOctober 2002. The estimate for the whole of 2002/03 is 23 per cent for theft offences.

Total crime – There has been a clear NCRS impact on total recorded crime from April 2002 in South Yorkshire, althoughthe changes appear to have taken around six months to bed in. The Home Office estimates a 24 per cent NCRS impact fortotal recorded crime for the full year 2002/03.

72




46% 71% 124% 130% 89%-2% -1% -1% 0% -1%5% 3% 10% -3% 4%2% 0% 0% -3% -1%

19% 22% 31% 13% 21%

11% 22% 34% 27% 23%21% 30% 37% 36% 31%11% 21% 36% 30% 24%

South YorkshireNational Crime Recording Standard – Part Two

73


Robbery

Total crime

All theft

South Yorkshire

South Yorkshire



= number of crimes



Staffordshire adopted the National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS) in October 1999 and this forcehas been included in the national estimates.

Owing to the early adoption date for Staffordshire, none of the increases in recorded crime in 2002/03 can be attributedto the NCRS. The changes in recording shown by the comparison of crimes against incident trends are likely to be due tothe normal variation in these data and Staffordshire’s victim-focused recording practice coming into line with the nationalStandard introduced in April 2002. Staffordshire is unable to provide comparable data prior to the force’s adoption of theNCRS in April 1999 owing to the implementation of a new incident recording system from this date. As a result, the force’scharts do not demonstrate any NCRS effect over the monitoring period, and in the charts.

The force’s offence charts show that despite some fluctuation from month to month, the ratio of crimes to incidents hasremained reasonably level for all crime categories since the introduction of victim-focused re c o rding practices. Thestabilisation of crime recording practices after the force adopted the NCRS means that any changes in crime levels arelikely to be real changes. The small negative impacts produced by the national methodology are within the bounds ofnormal variation in the data and are not considered significant. Staffordshire is included in the national estimates as thenegligible impact of the NCRS for this force in 2002/03 is a fair reflection of its contribution to the change in the nationalrecorded crime statistics.

Violence against the person – From the force’s violence against the person chart, it can be seen that in 2002/03 thenumber of crimes has generally tracked incidents in Staff o rd s h i re. The Home Office estimates a negligible change inrecording over 2002/03 for violence against the person offences in Staffordshire.

B u rg l a ry dwelling – From August 2001, the number of burg l a ry dwelling offences in Staff o rd s h i re has generallydecreased, with crimes closely tracking incidents. This fall in the level of crime therefore represents a real decrease.

R o b b e ry – The number of ro b b e ry offences re c o rded in Staff o rd s h i re has fluctuated over the monitoring period.However, in general, the trends in crimes have tracked incidents.

All theft – The national methodology estimates a negligible NCRS impact for Staffordshire in 2002/03. Since July 2001,a downward trend can be identified in the crime and incident data for Staffordshire (see force’s all theft chart). Because theeffects of the NCRS are not visible in the data over the monitoring period, this decrease represents a real fall in crime forthis force.

Total crime – The forc e ’s chart for total crime shows that overall, there has been a negligible NCRS impact during2002/03.

74




-7% -5% 7% 0% -2%-6% -2% -4% -6% -4%-3% -4% -3% -5% -4%-3% -3% -3% -6% -4%1% -14% -8% -13% -9%-3% -3% 1% -5% -2%1% 1% 7% 7% 4%-1% -1% 4% 2% 1%-3% -2% -2% -7% -3%-3% 0% 3% -1% -1%

StaffordshireNational Crime Recording Standard – Part Two

75


Robbery

Total crime

All theft

Staffordshire

Staffordshire



= number of crimes



Suffolk adopted the National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS) in April 2000 but has been excludedfrom the national estimates.

Owing to Suff o l k ’s early adoption date, the Home Office would not expect the force to have experienced any NCRSimpact in 2002/03. It has not been possible to calculate the impact of the recording changes in April 2000 using thenational methodology because the data provided only cover the period following adoption of the NCRS. Any changes inrecording may reflect the realignment of Suffolk’s practice to accord with the full Standard implemented nationally in April2002.

The force is not aware of any changes to the crime-related incident count during the period of analysis. However, Suffolk isregistering falls in the recording of crimes relative to incidents across a range of crime categories from March 2002. Withreference to the force’s charts, it seems plausible that these surprising effects may be due to improved incident recording asa result of the processes introduced alongside the changes in recording in April 2002. For this reason, this force has beenexcluded from the national estimates for 2002/03.

Violence against the person – The force’s chart for violence against the person shows that the number of incidents hasremained fairly stable for the entire monitoring period. The number of crimes has generally increased during this time. Theratio of crimes to incidents increased from quarter one to quarter four of 2002/03. This could indicate that NCRS inflationin the recording of violence against the person offences is not completely finished in this force.

Burglary dwelling – The trends in crimes and incidents track each other closely for burglary dwelling. Although therea re monthly variations in the data, there is some evidence of increased re c o rding in the latter half of 2002/03. Theincrease in recording of domestic burglaries is largely offset by a reduction in the recording of non-domestic burglaries inthis force.

Robbery – The number of robberies in Suffolk is small, and natural variation in the data means that it is difficult to reliablyestimate any impact of the NCRS on this crime type.

All theft – The force’s chart for all theft offences suggests that there has been a reduction in the recording of crimesrelative to incidents after April 2002. It is possible that this may be due to the clarification of the national Standard and theforce’s improvements to incident recording from that month.

Total crime – The force’s chart shows that the number of incidents has increased from the beginning of 2002 to the endof the monitoring period. By comparison, the number of crimes decreased from March 2002 to May 2002 and thenremained fairly stable until the end of monitoring period. It would appear that the factors behind the increase in the numberof theft incidents will also be driving the overall recorded crime pattern in Suffolk. From September 2002, the recordingratio was the most stable it has been since monitoring started.

76




SuffolkNational Crime Recording Standard – Part Two


77


Robbery

Total crime

All theft

Suffolk

Suffolk



= number of crimes



Surrey adopted the National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS) in April 2002 but has been excludedfrom the national estimates.

Surrey is aware of changes to the count of crime-related incidents during the monitoring period. Firstly, the force introduceda number of assault clinics in May 2001 that may have suppressed the number of offences recorded as crimes. However,since April 2002 all events reported via assault clinics should be recorded in compliance with the NCRS. Secondly, Surreyexperienced boundary changes in April 2000, which increased the size of the force by a third and also affected theconsistency of the monitoring data. To further compound these effects, between October 2001 and November 2001, aCentralised Crime Recording Bureau (CCRB) was introduced which appears to have suppressed the number of minor crime-related incidents. These factors indicate that the national methodology would have led to a considerable overestimate ofthe NCRS impact for Surrey.

Surrey proposed to monitor the impact of the NCRS by comparing each quarter of 2002/03 with quarter four of 2001/02instead of using the national methodology, since quarter four of 2001/02 appeared to provide the most stable incidentmeasure against which to compare subsequent data. However, on review, a single quarter’s recording ratio would producea too unreliable an estimate of the NCRS impact. Therefore, it is possible only to make a broad assessment of the NCRSimpact for Surrey.

Violence against the person – The forc e ’s chart for violence against the person supports the forc e ’s explanation ofchanges in crime and incident re c o rding over the past couple of years. In May 2001 there was a clear fall in the ratio ofcrimes to incidents owing to the introduction of assault clinics. This ratio remained fairly stable until quarter four of 2001/02when it started to rise at precisely the time that the CCRB was introduced. A subsequent step change in the re c o rding ofcrimes is apparent from April 2002 owing to the introduction of the NCRS. The force estimates there has been a 44 per centNCRS impact on violence against the person offences for 2002/03, although this is probably a better indication of thechange from 2000/01 rather than from the reduced count in 2001/02 from the introduction of the assault clinics.

Burglary dwelling – For burglary dwelling, crimes and incidents track closely throughout the monitoring period. Thegeneral increase in both crimes and incidents until October 2002 and the subsequent decrease since this date wouldappear to reflect the real trend in crime.

Robbery – The robbery figures are relatively small, so any fluctuation can cause large changes in the recording ratio. It isnot possible to estimate the NCRS impact on robbery.

All theft – For all theft, the ratio of crimes to incidents remained constant until November 2001 when the number ofincidents dropped dramatically owing to the adoption of the CCRB. There is no clear change in the number of theftsrecorded in Surrey from NCRS implementation, although the number of crimes rose between September 2001 and July2002. It is not possible to estimate the NCRS impact on this crime type.

Total crime – Total crime follows a similar pattern to that of all theft. The most noticeable change has been the intro d u c t i o nof the CCRB in November 2001, causing a sudden drop in incidents. There appears to be a small increase in crime aro u n dApril 2002, although the effects of the CCRB make this difficult to determine. Using the adapted methodology agreed withthe force, the Home Office estimates a 25 per cent NCRS impact on total re c o rded crime for 2002/03.

78




44%-9%

11%-2%-7%

54%17%25%

SurreyNational Crime Recording Standard – Part Two


79


Robbery

Total crime

All theft

Surrey

Surrey



= number of crimes



Sussex adopted the National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS) in April 2002 and has been includedin the national estimates.

Sussex is not aware of any changes to the count of crime-related incidents. The force has suggested that there was limitedimpact of the NCRS in Sussex owing to the extent to which this force was re c o rding on a prima facie basis prior toadoption of the new national Standard in April 2002.

The force comments that since the Home Office counting rules changed in 1998, Sussex has been recording crimes morerigorously, relative to other forces. Total recorded crime in Sussex increased by five per cent in 1999/2000, which wasslightly more than the national average for the year. In the following year, 2000/01, crime in Sussex increased by only0.3 per cent and then fell by one per cent in 2001/02. Violence against the person offences increased by 15 per cent in1999/2000 in the force, whilst there was an 11 per cent increase in criminal damage over this period. Following thesei n c reases, violence against the person offences increased by two per cent in 2000/01 and 2001/02, and criminaldamage increased by three per cent and then one per cent, respectively. The substantial increases in these crime types in1999/2000 might support the contention that this force increased its recording of crime at that time.

Violence against the person – For violence against the person offences, there is no clear NCRS impact evident fromthe data. For the full year 2002/03, the Home Office estimates that the force has experienced a small negative NCRSimpact for violence against the person offences, although it is unclear as to whether this effect is simply due to naturalvariation in the data, or a small degree of over-recording due to the prima facie recording basis already in existence in thisforce. Regardless of this, the trends in violence against the person crimes and incidents have been reasonably consistentover the monitoring period.

Burglary dwelling – For burglary dwelling offences, there is no clear NCRS impact at the time of implementation inApril 2002. With reference to the force’s chart, a sharp increase in the number of domestic burglary incidents can be seento have occurred prior to April 2002. However, from this date, the trend in crimes and incidents diverges, and only returnsto a more consistent pattern in the fourth quarter of 2002/03. For 2002/03, the estimate for the impact of the recordingchanges on domestic burglary offences in Sussex is negligible.

Robbery – The relatively small number of robbery offences recorded in Sussex present too much variation in the data tosuggest any clear NCRS impact, although, the national methodology suggests a small NCRS impact of approximately threeper cent for the full year 2002/03.

All theft – The force’s chart for all theft offences shows no clear NCRS impact at the time of NCRS implementation in April2002, nor thereafter. The Home Office estimates a minus six per cent NCRS impact on all theft offences for the full year2002/03. This negative impact may be the result of over- re c o rding by the force prior to April 2002, or the forc e ’simprovements in incident capture over this period, as described earlier.

Total crime – The national methodology estimates a minus six per cent NCRS impact for total recorded crime for the fullyear of 2002/03. Sussex has agreed with the Home Office estimate that there has been little discernible NCRS impact inthis force.

80




-9% 0% -7% -2% -4%-17% 8% 1% 15% 1%14% -11% -17% -20% -9%-2% -3% -9% -6% -5%0% -3% 8% 8% 3%

-3% -5% -6% -9% -6%-6% -8% -5% -5% -6%-4% -5% -8% -8% -6%

SussexNational Crime Recording Standard – Part Two

81


Robbery

Total crime

All theft

Sussex

Sussex



= number of crimes



Thames Valley adopted the National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS) in April 2002 but has beenexcluded from the national estimates.

Thames Valley’s adoption date is reflected by an increase in the ratio of crimes to incidents, which is visible in the force’schart for violence against the person offences.

The force has been migrating towards a system of centralised call handling centres that deal with crime recording at thefirst point of contact without the need to create an incident record. In addition, changes associated with the introduction ofthe NCRS have also led to improvements in incident recording. The change in the number of incidents captured from April2002 is clearly visible in the force’s charts. The force has calculated that the percentage of incidents closed as crimes forquarter one in 2002/03 was 22 per cent of all incidents, compared to approximately 17 per cent for the entire year of2001/02. The force believes that this increase is the direct result of the NCRS and a stricter regime for managing crime-related incidents. It seems, there f o re, as a result of the observed increases in the incident count, that if the nationalmethodology were applied in Thames Valley it would considerably underestimate the full effects of the NCRS, and thereforethe force has been excluded from the national estimate.

Violence against the person – For violence against the person, both the numbers of crimes and incidents started torise in April 2002 at the time of NCRS implementation. This represents a marked impact on the incident count and an evengreater impact on recorded violence against the person crimes. The implementation of new recording practices appears tohave been swift, and there seems to be no further NCRS impact after May 2002.

Burglary dwelling – Over the course of the monitoring period, despite short-term fluctuations in the crime and incidentdata, the ratio between the number of crimes and incidents has remained fairly constant. As a result, there is no noticeableimpact for the NCRS on domestic burglary offences in Thames Valley.

Robbery – Like burglary dwelling offences, there appears to be no substantial inflation of recorded robbery crimes owingto the introduction of the NCRS. There is an increase in the number of robbery incidents and crimes recorded by ThamesValley from June 2001, however this increase predates the introduction of the NCRS. With reference to the force’s chart,from April 2002 when the force adopted the NCRS, the gap between the number of recorded crimes and incidents shrankconsiderably. This also coincided with the introduction of the Street Crime Initiative within the force. However, tightening upof the recording of robbery crimes appears to have been swift, and since June 2002 the trends in robbery crimes andincidents have closely tracked one another.

All theft – There is no clear, discernible NCRS effect on the theft data in Thames Valley. Although there is considerablymore variation in the number of crimes, the main trends have tended to track incidents throughout the monitoring period,with no obvious changes when the NCRS was introduced.

Total crime – With reference to the force’s chart, an increase in total recorded crimes and incidents is visible in April2002. This represents a clear NCRS impact, which would appear to be complete by May 2002.

82




Thames ValleyNational Crime Recording Standard – Part Two


83


Robbery

Total crime

All theft

Thames Valley

Thames Valley



= number of crimes



Warwickshire adopted the National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS) in April 2002 and has beenincluded in the national estimates.

Wa rw i c k s h i re ’s adoption date is not reflected by an increase in the ratio of crimes to incidents in the forc e ’s chart s ,although there is evidence to suggest that the NCRS had an impact on this force six months later.

The force is not aware of any changes to the incident count over the NCRS monitoring period. However, the force doeshave some concerns about the accuracy of data received from their Command and Control system, which may aff e c tcomparisons of incidents with crimes.

Violence against the person – The force’s chart shows that the ratio of crimes to incidents has never been stablet h roughout the entire monitoring period. The ratio has increased over the last three years and hence prior to NCRSimplementation. There was no immediate NCRS inflation in April 2002, but there appears to be a substantial step changeof 36 per cent in quarter three of 2002/03, which is also maintained for the fourth quarter. This delayed implementationeffect would suggest that as of March 2003 the impact of the NCRS is unlikely to be over for this offence type.

Burglary dwelling – For burglary dwelling offences, there is no evidence to suggest that there has been a sizeableincrease resulting from the NCRS in April 2002 or thereafter. The Home Office estimates a three per cent NCRS effect forburglary dwelling offences in 2002/03.

Robbery – Due to the small number of robbery offences which occur in this force, there is considerable monthly variationin the data. There is no clear evidence of any substantial NCRS effect on robbery in Warwickshire.

All theft – The force’s chart for all theft shows considerable variation from month to month but, as with violence againstthe person offences, the increased recording of crimes appears to be a long-term phenomenon, and not simply linked tothe adoption of the NCRS. The Home Office estimates a small NCRS impact of four per cent for 2002/03 for all theftoffences, although most of the impact occurred in quarter three of 2002/03, again suggesting a delay in implementationin this force.

Total crime – Until October 2002, the force’s chart for total recorded crime shows a stable relationship between crimesand incidents and hence the ratio has remained level over this period. The only notable increase is found to start in quarterthree of 2002/03, around six months after national implementation of the NCRS. Since the NCRS appears to have takenaround six months to take effect in Warwickshire, this force could possibly see a NCRS impact in 2003/04. The HomeOffice estimates a four per cent NCRS impact for 2002/03 for total recorded crime in this force.

84




-4% 0% 36% 39% 17%-2% 3% 5% 9% 3%0% -3% 5% 1% 1%-1% -1% 4% 4% 1%-4% -10% 13% 15% 3%

-2% 2% 7% 9% 4%-1% -1% 6% 11% 4%-3% -1% 9% 11% 4%

WarwickshireNational Crime Recording Standard – Part Two

85


Robbery

Total crime

All theft

Warwickshire

Warwickshire



= number of crimes



West Mercia adopted the National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS) in April 2001 and has beenincluded in the national estimates.

West Mercia’s adoption date, a full year in advance of most other forces, is reflected by an increase in the ratio of crimesto incidents, which is visible in the force’s charts for violence against the person offences, all theft offences and total crime.The force has experienced no further NCRS impact on its crime data in 2002/03.

The national methodology produces small estimates of the NCRS impact for the force in 2002/03 – although the NCRSimpact was more considerable in the preceding year 2001/02, when West Mercia adopted the NCRS. Estimates of theNCRS impact for 2001/02 have been included for violence against the person, all theft and total crime categories in thetext below.

Violence against the person – For violence against the person offences, the force’s chart clearly shows a large stepchange in the ratio of crimes to incidents in April 2001, the time of implementation in this force. The ratio has remainedfairly constant since this date and there appears to be no additional NCRS impact in 2002/03. Given that the forc eadopted the NCRS before 2002/03, using the data from the 11 months prior to the NCRS adoption in April 2001, thenational methodology estimates a 100 per cent NCRS impact for violence against the person offences for the 12 monthsending March 2002.

B u rg l a ry dwelling – The forc e ’s chart for burg l a ry dwelling shows a small increase in re c o rding at the time ofimplementation in April 2001, and then little further NCRS impact. Recent changes in crime can be assumed to be largelyreal, although the national methodology suggests that there may have been a further six per cent increase in recording forburglary dwelling in West Mercia during 2002/03.

R o b b e ry – The Home Office analysis for the force suggests a small NCRS impact for 2002/03, although a moresignificant impact on the recording of robbery may have occurred almost a year earlier in July 2001, a little after the forceimplemented the NCRS. Robbery is showing little additional impact from recording changes in 2002/03, but the datashow a great deal of monthly variation owing to the small numbers of this offence type.

All theft – All theft offences in West Mercia, like burglary dwelling, show a clear step change in recording at the time ofNCRS implementation in April 2001, and then no further NCRS impact past the summer of 2001. Using the data from the11 months prior to NCRS adoption in April 2001, the national methodology estimates a 20 per cent NCRS impact for the12 months ending March 2002.

Total crime – Overall, for total crime recorded by the force in 2002/03, there is little evidence of a NCRS effect. This issupported by the negligible NCRS impact calculated using the national methodology. This is also demonstrated very clearlyin the force’s chart. The crime to ratio incident has remained stable until April 2001 when it experienced a definite stepchange at the time of NCRS adoption, and has stayed constant thereafter. As a result no further NCRS impact has beenevident in 2002/03. Given that West Merica adopted the NCRS prior to April 2002, using the data from the 11 monthsprior to NCRS adoption in April 2001, the national methodology estimates a 32 per cent NCRS impact for total recordedcrime for the 12 months ending March 2002.

86




-4% -2% 0% 3% -1%3% 5% 6% 10% 6%-2% -1% 0% -2% -1%1% 2% 2% 2% 2%7% 3% -1% 7% 4%

-1% 0% 3% 2% 1%-8% -3% -2% -2% -4%-2% 0% 1% 3% 0%

West MerciaNational Crime Recording Standard – Part Two

87


Robbery

Total crime

All theft

West Mercia

West Mercia



= number of crimes



West Midlands adopted the National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS) earlier than most forces, inJanuary 1999, and has been included in the national estimates.

West Midlands started to implement the principles of more inclusive crime recording in January 1999, around the sametime as the Home Office counting rules were introduced. This had the effect of increasing the number of certain recordedcrimes. West Midlands was the first force to openly adopt this approach and the monitoring data presented here cover aperiod in which this force was already operating under NCRS principles. The force has therefore not experienced anymajor impact from recording changes in 2002/03. Criminal damage offences appear to be the exception to this, whereclarification of the standards required under the NCRS appears to have led to a nine per cent increase in recording in2002/03.

The force is aware of changes to the count of crime-related incidents over recent years. Since 1999, a greater number ofcrimes have been reported via the telephone, and recorded directly onto the force’s crime system without recording anincident on the Command and Control system. This has reduced the number of incidents recorded relative to the number ofcrimes. Also, since 1999, stricter auditing procedures have improved the rate of converting incidents to crimes, which willhave affected the force’s NCRS experience by reducing the gap between incident and crime recording. These changes donot appear to have affected the data in the recent monitoring period.

Violence against the person – For violence against the person offences, there has been considerable variation in theratio of crimes to incidents over the NCRS monitoring period. As expected, in 2002/03 there is little evidence of anyimpact of the recording changes, owing to the force’s early adoption of the Standard. Both crimes and incidents for WestMidlands have remained reasonably level, generally tracking each other in 2002/03. The national methodology suggeststhat there has been a very small decrease in recording over the last year, possibly owing to the force realigning its pre-existing practice with the new Standard in 2002. West Midlands experienced a substantial increase in recorded crimes asa result of adopting victim-focused re c o rding practices in 1999, and possibly earlier, but there is insufficient data toestimate the impact using the national methodology.

Burglary dwelling and robbery – For burglary dwelling and robbery offences in West Midlands, the recording ratehas not been affected in 2002/03, and the changes in this year would appear to reflect real changes in crime.

All theft – From July 2001 until the end of the monitoring period, the force’s chart for all theft shows a very stable ratio ofcrimes to incidents. Prior to this point, there is evidence of increased recording of theft incidents, which appears to havestabilised by July 2001. Although the Home Office estimates a decrease in recording for the year 2002/03, the trend inall theft crimes has largely tracked the trend in incidents. The reduction in the recording of vehicle thefts appears to be aresult of the clarification of the Home Office Counting Rules for theft of vehicles, and West Midlands changing its practiceto become more consistent with recording in other forces.

Total crime – For total recorded crime, the recording ratio is very stable from May 2001 until the end of the monitoringperiod, although the Home Office estimate suggests a slight increase in recording of three per cent in 2002/03. For WestMidlands, the main impact of moving to a victim-focused recording practice occurred at the end of 1998, although there isinsufficient data to estimate the impact of the recording changes at this time.

88




0% 0% -3% -1% -6% -3%0% 0% 1% 1% -2% 0%0% 3% -1% 2% -2% 1%0% 4% 1% 1% -3% 1%0% -3% 2% -2% -3% -2%0% -8% -11% -13% -13% -11%0% -4% -7% 4% 0% -2%0% -6% -9% -5% -7% -7%0% 5% 7% 9% 14% 9%0% 2% 2% 4% 3% 3%

West MidlandsNational Crime Recording Standard – Part Two

89


Robbery

Total crime

All theft

West Midlands

West Midlands



= number of crimes



West Yorkshire adopted the National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS) in February 2002 and hasbeen included in the national estimates.

West Yorkshire’s adoption date is reflected by an increase in the ratio of crimes to incidents, which is visible in the force’scharts for violence against the person offences, all theft offences and total recorded crime.

The force is not aware of any changes to the count of crime-related incidents, although West Yorkshire believes that theNCRS may have led to some incident inflation in certain categories. There is no evidence that this has had a substantialimpact on the analysis.

Violence against the person – For violence against the person offences, the force’s chart shows that the ratio of crimesto incidents rose from July 2001. However, there appears to have been a more substantial increase in February 2002 atthe time of NCRS implementation, and a clear step change from April 2002. Whilst incidents remained re l a t i v e l yunaffected by the NCRS, crimes clearly increased dramatically. The Home Office estimates a 47 per cent NCRS impact forthe full year 2002/03 for violence against the person offences, but the reduction in the re c o rding ratio, visible in thesecond half of 2002/03, should be monitored in the future. It is difficult to conclude that the NCRS is over for this offencetype in this force.

Burglary dwelling and robbery – It should be noted that the force has a policy which states that for each robberyand burglary dwelling reported, an incident log must be recorded. Thus the ratio has remained constant for these offences;crimes and incidents track each other very closely. The ro b b e ry and burg l a ry dwelling charts both show that theintroduction of the NCRS has had a limited inflationary impact on the figures. For burglary dwelling offences, the nationalmethodology estimates a one per cent NCRS impact for the full year 2002/03. The recording ratio for robbery began todrop in February 2002, but continues to track incidents, although more closely.

All theft – The chart for all theft offences shows that from February 2002 there was an increase in the ratio of crimes toincidents and the ratio has remained fairly stable for the last three quarters of 2002/03. The national methodologyestimates a 40 per cent NCRS impact for the full year 2002/03. It would also appear that, given the stable ratio, theNCRS impact is complete for this offence type.

Total crime – The overall statistics for total recorded crime show a clear NCRS impact from February 2002. The HomeOffice estimates a 25 per cent NCRS impact on total recorded crime for 2002/03 in this force. The ratio of crimes toincidents has remained fairly stable over the four quarters of this year, indicating that the NCRS impact is complete forWest Yorkshire.

90




61% 61% 53% 20% 47%2% 0% 1% 2% 1%8% 12% 10% 8% 9%6% 4% 1% 2% 3%-5% -12% -14% -7% -9%

21% 24% 24% 27% 24%54% 64% 64% 61% 61%36% 42% 41% 42% 40%24% 23% 28% 33% 27%23% 27% 24% 28% 25%

West YorkshireNational Crime Recording Standard – Part Two

91


Robbery

Total crime

All theft

West Yorkshire

West Yorkshire



= number of crimes



Wi l t s h i re adopted the National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS) in April 2002 and has beenincluded in the national estimates.

Wiltshire’s adoption date is reflected by an increase in the ratio of crimes to incidents, which is demonstrated in the force’schart for violence against the person offences.

The force notes that a review of practice and training and the implementation of quality assurance/awareness programmeshave had an impact on incident data in this force from April 2001. Furthermore, the force adopted a Centralised CrimeRecording Bureau (CCRB) in April 2002 – the same time as NCRS implementation. There is no evidence that the CCRB hashad a substantial impact on the volume of incidents in this force. However, it is possible that the national methodologycould underestimate the full impact of the NCRS on this force.

Violence against the person – For violence against the person, the number of incidents increased substantially fromJanuary to July 2001, prior to the adoption of the NCRS by the force. A high proportion of this increase is likely to beattributable to the force’s review of quality assurance introduced at that point. There is a clear NCRS impact in the firstthree quarters of 2002/03, however the final quarter of 2002/03 demonstrates an unusually large NCRS percentageestimate (101 per cent). The large NCRS percentage increase appears to stem from a dramatic fall in the number ofincidents reported, while the number of crimes has remained fairly stable. The sharp increase in the NCRS impact in thefourth quarter of 2002/03 suggests that the full impact may take longer than 12 months to bed in for this offence type.

All burglary – Wiltshire is not able to separately identify domestic burglaries in its incident data. The force’s all burglarychart shows no obvious NCRS impact. The ratio since April 2002 has fallen, although the trends in the two series arebroadly consistent.

Robbery – Due to the small number of robberies in Wiltshire and the resulting natural variation in the data, it is notpossible to draw any plausible conclusions about the impact of the NCRS on this offence type.

All theft – All theft follows a similar pattern to violence against the person in Wiltshire. There was an increase in thenumber of incidents relative to crimes in 2001 owing to changes in incident recording. In April 2002, the number of crimesrose whilst the number of incidents remained constant. The Home Office estimates that the force has experienced a NCRSimpact of approximately 10 per cent for 2002/03. It would appear that the NCRS has bedded in for all theft.

Total crime – The force’s chart for total crime shows a close relationship between the number of crimes and incidents untilApril 2001, when the introduction of a new quality assurance programme meant that the number of incidents began to rise– and the ratio of crimes to incidents fell accord i n g l y. In April 2002, there was no immediate increase in the crimere c o rding ratio because both crimes and incidents started rising simultaneously. From quarter three of 2002/03 thenumber of incidents fell thereby increasing the ratio. This indicates that the main NCRS effect in Wiltshire may have takensix months to take effect. In quarter four of 2002/03, the ratio of crimes to incidents increased dramatically because thenumber of incidents remained at a low level for two months, whilst the number of crimes generally increased relative toincidents for the first time since January 2001. As of March 2003, it is not clear whether the NCRS impact is through forthis force.

92




30% 42% 56% 101% 53%

-9% -8% -13% -16% -11%25% 24% 24% 2% 19%

-4% 10% 21% 14% 10%-9% -8% 10% 19% 2%-3% -2% 15% 40% 10%

WiltshireNational Crime Recording Standard – Part Two

93


Robbery

Total crime

All theft

Wiltshire

Wiltshire

All Burglary



= number of crimes



References

Burrows, J., Tarling, R., Mackie, A., Lewis, R. and Taylor, G. (2000) Review of police forces’ crime recording practices. HomeOffice Research Study 204. London: Home Office.

Diez, L. (1995) The use of call grading: How calls to the police are graded and resourced. Police Research Series Paper13. London: Home Office.

Her Majesty’s Inspectorate of Constabulary (HMIC) (2000) On the Record: Thematic Inspection on Police Crime Recording,the Police National Computer and Phoenix Intelligence System Data Quality. London: Home Office.


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national crime recording standard (ncrs): an analysis of

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