national technical university of athens centre for the assessment of natural hazards & proactive...

National Technical University of AthensNational Technical University of Athens Centre for the Assessment of Natural Hazards & Proactive PlanningCentre for the Assessment of Natural Hazards & Proactive Planning

G. TsakirisG. Tsakiris

New Trends in Water Resources New Trends in Water Resources Planning and ManagementPlanning and ManagementEmphasis on Water Shortage ManagementEmphasis on Water Shortage Management

National Technical University of Athens – National Technical University of Athens – Centre for the Assessment of Natural Hazards & Proactive PlanningCentre for the Assessment of Natural Hazards & Proactive Planning

OUTLINE

A The Changing Context

B Water Framework Directive

C Decentralisation and Public Participation

D Drought as a Natural Hazard

E Water Shortage Management: The Proactive Approach

F Concluding Remarks


The TransformationThe Transformation Population IncreasePopulation Increase

Population MobilityPopulation Mobility

UrbanisationUrbanisation

Climate ChangeClimate Change

GlobalisationGlobalisation

ComplexityComplexity

UncertaintyUncertainty

TurbulenceTurbulence

Complexification


Changing Approaches toChanging Approaches toPlanning and ManagementPlanning and Management

1960s1960s Feasibility studies, Elitist planning, Extrapolative orientationFeasibility studies, Elitist planning, Extrapolative orientation

1970s1970s Environmental Impact Assessment, Indicators/Principles & Environmental Impact Assessment, Indicators/Principles &

Standards, modeling/dataStandards, modeling/data

1980s1980s Cumulative Impact Assessment, foresight emphasis, “User pays,” Cumulative Impact Assessment, foresight emphasis, “User pays,”

“Polluter pays” principle“Polluter pays” principle

1990s1990s Sustainability, Equity/Efficiency/Effort, Normative PlanningSustainability, Equity/Efficiency/Effort, Normative Planning

2000s2000s Globalization, Integrated/Holistic/ComprehensiveGlobalization, Integrated/Holistic/Comprehensive


Historic evolution of transparency and participationHistoric evolution of transparency and participation

Design team Approximate Era

1 Engineers Pre-1945

2 Engineers + Economists Post-1950

3 Engineers + Economists + then add-on EIS to end of complete design

1970s

4 Engineers + Economists +Environmentalists + Sociologists 1980s

5 Engineers + Economists +Environmentalists + Sociologists + Affected People

1990s

6 Engineers + Economists +Environmentalists + Sociologists + Affected People + NGOs

1995

7 Engineers + Economists +Environmentalists + Sociologists + Affected People + NGOs + Freely-given, fully-informed, prior consent of affected people

Early 200s?


Treatment of Treatment of stakeholders: trends from warning, through stakeholders: trends from warning, through consultation and participation to partnershipconsultation and participation to partnership

Pre-1950s Warning: one way information flow: oustees were warned that they would be flooded or otherwise affected in a few weeks or months time and had to get out of the way for the greater good of distant citizens.

1960s Information: primitive consultation in selection of resettlement sites: outstees were informed that they would be flooded out, and were asked where they would like to move to among a few sites selected by the proponent. Compensation often inadequate

1970s Consultation: Participation in resettlement site selection: oustees were consulted about their impeding move and invited to assist in finding sites to which they would like to move.

1980s Meaningful consultation: resettlement participation evolves into consultation: outstees are meaningfully consulted in advance and can influence dam height, or its position on the river, outstees views on mitigation of settlement are addressed.

1991 Mandatory consultation: World bank’s “EA Sourcebook” mandates meaningful consultation in all EAs. The EA is unacceptable without such consultation (World Bank 1991).

1990s Stakeholder consultation: resettlement consultation evolves into stakeholder consultation: stakeholders views are sought on all impacts, not just involuntary resettlement.

1992 Participation: the World Bank’s EA Policy mandates participation. This means stakeholders are fully informed and they participate in decisions affecting them (World Bank 1996a,b)

1996 “Participation Sourcebook” published (World Bank 1996c).


Emerging Key NotionsEmerging Key Notions

Integrated managementIntegrated management Water securityWater security Transparency of governanceTransparency of governance Policy reformPolicy reform Transboundary interdependenciesTransboundary interdependencies River basin focusRiver basin focus True costingTrue costing Interdisciplinary approachesInterdisciplinary approaches


Millennium Millennium Development GoalsDevelopment Goals

“By 2015, cut in half the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water and sanitation.”


THE ESSENCE OF WFD/2000

• PLANNING AND INTEGRATED MANAGEMENT

• PRICING AND TRUE COST RECOVERY

• PARTICIPATION AND IMPROVED DECISION MAKING


Key Characteristics WFDKey Characteristics WFD

Prevent further deterioration, achieve “good status“ for Prevent further deterioration, achieve “good status“ for all waters all waters

Promote sustainable water usePromote sustainable water use River basin approachRiver basin approach ““Combined“ approach of emission limit values and Combined“ approach of emission limit values and

quality standardsquality standards Get prices rightGet prices right Get citizens involvedGet citizens involved


WFD/2000 FrameworkWFD/2000 Framework


Drought PhenomenonDrought Phenomenon

More frequent and severe droughtsMore frequent and severe droughts

Higher vulnerability to water stress of society and environmentHigher vulnerability to water stress of society and environment

Drought affects water deficient and sufficient countriesDrought affects water deficient and sufficient countries

Increased impacts in EuropeIncreased impacts in Europe

Drought the most difficult to determine hazardDrought the most difficult to determine hazard

“creeping natural hazard”“creeping natural hazard”


Causes and types of water scarcityCauses and types of water scarcity

CausesCauses

RegimeRegime NaturalNaturalHuman InducedHuman Induced

and Naturaland Natural

PermanentPermanent AridityAridity DesertificationDesertification

TemporaryTemporary DroughtDrought Water ShortageWater Shortage


Variables representing water Variables representing water availabilityavailability

Drought typeDrought type Water availability variableWater availability variable

MeteorologicalMeteorological Precipitation, precipitation and Precipitation, precipitation and evapotranspirationevapotranspiration

HydrologicalHydrological Streamflow, reservoir storage or flow in Streamflow, reservoir storage or flow in aquifersaquifers

AgriculturalAgricultural Soil moisture supplySoil moisture supply


Drought as a natural hazardDrought as a natural hazard

HydrologicalDrought

AgriculturalDrought

WaterShortage

MeteorologicalDrought

Impacts on- Municipalities- Industries- Tourism

Impacts onIrrigatedagriculture

Hazard Vulnerability Risk

Demand

Impacts onrainfedagriculture


Drought impactsDrought impacts

- Economic

- Environmental

- Social



1.1. Temperature increase in the order of 1.4Temperature increase in the order of 1.4oo C up to 5.8 C up to 5.8oo C C

2.2. Precipitation decrease in the order of 20%Precipitation decrease in the order of 20%

3.3. Increased frequency of extreme events, mainly floods, Increased frequency of extreme events, mainly floods, droughts, heat waves and forest firesdroughts, heat waves and forest fires

Three major findings for increased Climate Variability during Three major findings for increased Climate Variability during the 21st century for the Mediterranean region (IPCC, 2007):the 21st century for the Mediterranean region (IPCC, 2007):

Change in annual precipitation and temperatureChange in annual precipitation and temperatureAthensAthensThessalyThessalySpartaSpartaCycladesCycladesCreteCrete

((ΔΔP mm)P mm)

(-80) to (-120)(-80) to (-120)

((ΔΔT T ooC)C)

+4 to +5 +4 to +5 ooCC

> +5 > +5 ooCC

Change in sea level rise (Change in sea level rise (ΔΔH m)H m)

+0.20 to +0.40+0.20 to +0.40



Change in the meanChange in the mean Change in the dispersionChange in the dispersion

P

time

P

time

floods

droughts


Key scientific and technical issuesKey scientific and technical issues

Monitoring of water-related variablesMonitoring of water-related variables

Selection of drought indicesSelection of drought indices

Comparability – drought prone areas Comparability – drought prone areas

Uni-dimensional analysisUni-dimensional analysis


Water system vulnerabilityWater system vulnerability

Exposure of the System (E)Exposure of the System (E) Capacity of the System (S)Capacity of the System (S) Social Factor (SF)Social Factor (SF) Severity of the event (Qmax)Severity of the event (Qmax) Conditions and interrelated factors (I)Conditions and interrelated factors (I)

Major Water Shortage Major Water Shortage Management OptionsManagement Options


Α. Α. Severity Assessment – Severity Assessment – TransparencyTransparency

a.a. Frequent information of water shortage severity Frequent information of water shortage severity

b.b. Meetings and public discussionsMeetings and public discussions

c.c. Task force establishmentTask force establishment

d.d. Analysis of demand and efficiencyAnalysis of demand and efficiency

e.e. Preparation of options and responsibilitiesPreparation of options and responsibilities

f.f. Targets in various usesTargets in various uses

g.g. Official request to central government and/or EUOfficial request to central government and/or EU

h.h. Planning of employees’ vacationsPlanning of employees’ vacations


Β. Β. Demand reduction measures (1)Demand reduction measures (1)

a.a. Public learning campaign appeals for voluntary conservation Public learning campaign appeals for voluntary conservation from from

i.i. FarmersFarmers Industrialists Touristic agents Public

ii.ii. Bounces and incentivesBounces and incentives

b.b. Free distribution and/or installation of particular water saving Free distribution and/or installation of particular water saving devicesdevices

i.i. Extensive installation of water meters (in all types of systems)Extensive installation of water meters (in all types of systems)ii.ii. Low-flow showerheadsLow-flow showerheadsiii.iii. Shower flow restrictionsShower flow restrictionsiv.iv. Toilet damsToilet damsv.v. Displacement devices Displacement devices vi.vi. Pressure-reducing valvesPressure-reducing valves



c.c. Restrictions on non essential uses:Restrictions on non essential uses:i.i. Street flushing Street flushing ii.ii. Pavement hosingPavement hosingiii.iii. Car washingCar washingiv.iv. Lawn sprinklingLawn sprinklingv.v. Filling of swimming poolsFilling of swimming poolsvi.vi. Water cooled air conditioning without re-circulationWater cooled air conditioning without re-circulationvii.vii. Public fountainsPublic fountainsviii.viii. Park irrigationPark irrigationix.ix. Irrigation of golf coursesIrrigation of golf coursesx.x. Irrigation of perennial and drought resistant cropsIrrigation of perennial and drought resistant crops

d.d. Prohibition of selected commercial and institutional Prohibition of selected commercial and institutional uses:uses:

i.i. Car washesCar washesii.ii. School showersSchool showersiii.iii. Irrigation of non important plantsIrrigation of non important plants



e.e. Drought emergency pricing:Drought emergency pricing:i.i. Irrigation water charge per volumeIrrigation water charge per volumeii.ii. Drought rate (special extra charge for irrigation)Drought rate (special extra charge for irrigation)iii.iii. Drought surcharge on total water bills Drought surcharge on total water bills iv.iv. Summer use charge Summer use charge

f.f. Rationing programmesRationing programmesi.i. Per area and crop allocation of irrigation waterPer area and crop allocation of irrigation waterii.ii. Per capita allocation of residential usePer capita allocation of residential useiii.iii. Per household allocation of residential usePer household allocation of residential useiv.iv. Prior use allocation of residential use Prior use allocation of residential use v.v. Percent reduction of commercial and institutional usePercent reduction of commercial and institutional usevi.vi. Percent reduction of industrial usePercent reduction of industrial usevii.vii. Complete closedown of industries and commercial Complete closedown of industries and commercial

establishments with heavy use of waterestablishments with heavy use of water


C. System improvementsC. System improvements

a.a. Raw water sourcesRaw water sources

b.b. Water treatment plantWater treatment plant

c.c. Distribution system:Distribution system:

i.i. Reduction of system pressure to minimum possible levelsReduction of system pressure to minimum possible levels

ii.ii. Implementation of a leak detection and repair programmeImplementation of a leak detection and repair programme

iii.iii. Discontinuing hydrant and main flushingDiscontinuing hydrant and main flushing

d.d. Selection of individual household inspection for repairsSelection of individual household inspection for repairs


D. Emergency water supplies (1)D. Emergency water supplies (1)

a.a. Inter-use transfersInter-use transfers

i.i. Purchase of water rights of farmersPurchase of water rights of farmers

ii.ii. Planned reallocation of irrigation to municipal usePlanned reallocation of irrigation to municipal use

iii.iii. Water trade - water banksWater trade - water banks

b.b. Inter-district transfersInter-district transfers

i.i. Emergency interconnectionsEmergency interconnections

ii.ii. Importation of water by trucksImportation of water by trucks

iii.iii. Importation of water by railroad carsImportation of water by railroad cars


D. Emergency water supplies (2)D. Emergency water supplies (2)

c.c. Cross-purpose diversionsCross-purpose diversions

i.i. Reduction of reservoir releases for hydropower productionReduction of reservoir releases for hydropower production

ii.ii. Reduction of reservoir releases for flood controlReduction of reservoir releases for flood control

iii.iii. Diversion of water from recreation water bodies Diversion of water from recreation water bodies

iv.iv. Relaxation of minimum streamflow requirementsRelaxation of minimum streamflow requirements

d.d. Auxiliary emergency sourcesAuxiliary emergency sources

i.i. Utilization of untapped creeks, ponds and quarriesUtilization of untapped creeks, ponds and quarries

ii.ii. Utilization of dead reservoir storageUtilization of dead reservoir storage

iii.iii. Construction of a temporary pipeline to an abundant Construction of a temporary pipeline to an abundant

source of water (major river)source of water (major river)


Prioritisation of water demandPrioritisation of water demand

Priority IIIPriority III

Priority IIPriority II

Priority IPriority I

OO NN DD JJ FF MM AA MM JJ JJ AA SS

11

22

33

44

55

66

77

88

99

1010

00

monthsmonths

Un

its o

f w

ate

rU

nit

s o

f w

ate

r


Institutional and governance issuesInstitutional and governance issues

DimensionsDimensions Technocratic dimensionTechnocratic dimension Implementation processImplementation process Institutional contextInstitutional context

Key critical issues for RBO establishmentKey critical issues for RBO establishment Consistent commitment of governanceConsistent commitment of governance Acceptance of shared responsibilitiesAcceptance of shared responsibilities Participation of stakeholdersParticipation of stakeholders Fully institutionalised initiativesFully institutionalised initiatives


Concluding remarksConcluding remarks

Proactive management of water systemsProactive management of water systems

Drought indices assessing drought severityDrought indices assessing drought severity

Uni-dimensional analysis of droughtUni-dimensional analysis of drought

Common truncation level for comparability between Common truncation level for comparability between

regionsregions

Water shortages caused by droughtWater shortages caused by drought

Vulnerability analysis of each systemVulnerability analysis of each system

Risk the key determinant for prioritisation of demandRisk the key determinant for prioritisation of demand

RBO the responsible agenciesRBO the responsible agencies

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