national wind generation picture
DESCRIPTION
National Wind Generation Picture. Outline. US energy today Legislative landscape The future Long-term national planning Conclusions. US energy today: Existing US resource mix by capacity. Source: AWEA 2009 Annual Wind Report. US energy today: Retail Prices - 2007. US energy today: - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
National Wind Generation Picture
Outline1. US energy today2. Legislative landscape3. The future4. Long-term national planning5. Conclusions
1. US energy today: Existing US resource mix by capacity
3Source: AWEA 2009 Annual Wind Report
1. US energy today: Retail Prices - 2007
4
1. US energy today: US wind capacity historical growth
5Source: AWEA 2009 Annual Wind Report
1. US energy today: Wind capacity by state
6Source: AWEA Website: www.awea.org
1. US energy today: Wind capacity and 2008 growth by state
7
State ExistingTexas 8,361Iowa 3,043California 2,787Minnesota 1,805Washington 1,575Oregon 1,408New York 1,264Colorado 1,068Kansas 1,014Illinois 915Oklahoma 831Wyoming 816North Dakota 714Indiana 531New Mexico 497Pennsylvania 463Wisconsin 449West Virginia 330Missouri 309South Dakota 288
State In construction Rank by CapacityTexas 1,096 1Illinois 703 10Indiana 505 14Oregon 426 6Iowa 409 2Washington 405 5Pennsylvania 356 16North Dakota 345 13Wyoming 269 12Utah 204 29Oklahoma 200 11Colorado 174 8Missouri 150 19Montana 104 21West Virginia 101 18New Mexico 100 15Maine 92 25Arizona 63 37Nebraska 42 22Minnesota 40 4
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Source: AWEA Website: www.awea.org
1. US energy today: Wind % capacity by state
8Source: AWEA 2009 Annual Wind Report
1. US energy today: Market share of total US wind fleet
9Source: AWEA 2009 Annual Wind Report
1. US energy today: Market share of 2008 wind installations
10Source: AWEA 2009 Annual Wind Report
1. US energy today: Ownership by company and by utility
11Source: AWEA 2009 Annual Wind Report
1. US energy today: Power purchase agreements+ownership
12Source: AWEA 2009 Annual Wind Report
1. US energy today: Wind plant size
13Source: AWEA 2009 Annual Wind Report
2. Legislative landscape: Renewable portfolio standards (on energy)
29 states, differing in % (10-40), timing (latest is 2030), eligible technologies/resources (all include wind)
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State renewable portfolio standard
State renewable portfolio goal
Solar water heating eligible *† Extra credit for solar or customer-sited renewables
Includes non-renewable alternative resources
WA: 15% by 2020*
CA: 33% by 2020
☼ NV: 25% by 2025*
☼ AZ: 15% by 2025
☼ NM: 20% by 2020 (IOUs)
10% by 2020 (co-ops)
HI: 40% by 2030
☼ Minimum solar or customer-sited requirement
TX: 5,880 MW by 2015
UT: 20% by 2025*
☼ CO: 20% by 2020 (IOUs)
10% by 2020 (co-ops & large munis)*
MT: 15% by 2015
ND: 10% by 2015
SD: 10% by 2015
IA: 105 MW
MN: 25% by 2025(Xcel: 30% by 2020)
☼ MO: 15% by 2021
WI: Varies by utility;
10% by 2015 goal
MI: 10% + 1,100 MW by 2015*
☼ OH: 25% by 2025†
ME: 30% by 2000New RE: 10% by 2017
☼ NH: 23.8% by 2025☼ MA: 15% by
2020+ 1% annual increase(Class I Renewables)RI: 16% by 2020
CT: 23% by 2020
☼ NY: 24% by 2013
☼ NJ: 22.5% by 2021
☼ PA: 18% by 2020†
☼ MD: 20% by 2022
☼ DE: 20% by 2019*
☼ DC: 20% by 2020
VA: 15% by 2025*
☼ NC: 12.5% by 2021 (IOUs)
10% by 2018 (co-ops & munis)
VT: (1) RE meets any increase in retail sales by
2012; (2) 20% RE & CHP by 2017
29 states &
DC have an RPS
6 states have goals
KS: 20% by 2020
☼ OR: 25% by 2025 (large utilities)*
5% - 10% by 2025 (smaller utilities)
☼ IL: 25% by 2025
WV: 25% by 2025*†
2. Legislative landscape: Tax incentives
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• Federal Incentives:• Renewed incentives Feb 2009 through 12/31/12, via ARRA• 2.1 cents per kilowatt-hour PTC,or 30% investment tax credit (ITC)
• State incentives:• IA: 1.5¢/kWhr, small wind, Utah, Oklahoma, • Various other including sales & property tax reductions
2. Legislative landscape: Federal, congressional bills
16
Waxman-Markey (House, passed) Kerry-Boxer (Senate)
2012 renewables target 6% of electric energy renewableIn separate bill (Bingaman)2020 renewables target 20%
2012 emissions target Cuts by 3% (2005 baseline)
2020 Emissions target Cuts by 17% Cuts by 20% (2005 baseline)
2030 Emissions target 42% 42%
2050 Emissions target 83% 83%
See http://www.grist.org/article/2009-06-03-waxman-markey-bill-breakdown/
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$60 billion AEP plan
Joint Coordinated System Plan (20%wind). Cost: $82 billion (2024 $)
2. Legislative LandscapeBuilding Transmission
2. Legislative LandscapeBuilding Transmission
•Multi-state transmission is very difficult• FERC’s authority – national interest corridors• Regional efforts
• 2008: Uppr Mdwst Trns Dvlpmnt Initiative: MN,ND,SD,IA,WI• 2008: Joint Coord Sys Planning: MISO, PJM, SPP, TVA, MAPP• 2010: DOE transmission planning grants:
Eastern Interconnection Planning Collaborative: PJM, NYISO, ISO-NE, MISO, SoCo, TVA, MAPP, Entergy WECC: Most of the western companies
• Will FERC mandate if a state rejects T-plans?
18
3. The future: US wind potential by state
19Source: Xi Lua, M. McElroya, and J. Kiviluomac, “Global potential for wind-generated electricity,” Proc. of the National Academy of Sciences, 2009, www.pnas.orgcgidoi10.1073pnas.0904101106.
Annual wind energy potential (1012 w-hrs)
Annual wind energy potential R= ------------------------------------------
2006 state annual retail sales
States with high production and R-ratio have high export potential
(Montana, Dakotas, Wyoming, Nebraska, Kansas)Analysis assumes (a) only sites having capacity factor > 20% included; (a) loss of 20%
and 10% of potential power for onshore and offshore, respectively, caused by interturbine interference, (c) offshore siting distance within 50 nm (92.6 km) of nearest shoreline.
3. The future: US wind potential
20Source: Xi Lua, M. McElroya, and J. Kiviluomac, “Global potential for wind-generated electricity,” Proc. of the National Academy of Sciences, 2009, www.pnas.orgcgidoi10.1073pnas.0904101106.
Contiguous US annual wind energy potential , 1015 wh
Multiples of 2008 Total US Energy Consumption*
Onshore 62 2.12
Offshore, 0-20 meter 1.2 .041
Offshore, 20-50 m 2.1 .072
Offshore, 50-200 m 2.2 .075
Total 68 2.321
•Total 2008 US Energy consumption across all sectors is 100 Quads:
whEkwh
wh
BTU
kwh
Q
BTUEQ 153.29
1000
3413
151100
Long-term national planning:How wind fits in
Energy system: Electric, Fuels, TransportationLIQUID FUEL
Interstate Pipelines
Legend
Intrastate PipelinesTexas
Oklahoma
Arkansas
Kentucky
Mississippi
Alabama
Louisiana
Delaware
Maryland
ConnecticutNew JerseyPennsylvania
Rhode Island
Massachusetts
New Hampshire
Vermont
Maine
New York
Kansas
Wyoming
New Mexico
Florida
South Dakota
IowaOhio
Virginia
North Carolina
Georgia
South Carolina
Tennessee
Michigan
Indiana
Illinois
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Colorado
Missouri
Arizona
Nebraska
North DakotaMontana
Idaho
California
Nevada
Washington
Oregon
Utah
West Virginia
NATURAL GAS
ELECTRIC
RAIL
AIR Interstate
22
Energy system: Today
US ENERGY USE IS 69% ELECTRIC & TRANSPORTATION
US CO2 EMISSIONS IS 74% ELECTRIC & TRANSPORTATION
GREENING ELECTRIC & TRANSPORTATION ENERGY SOLVES THE EMISSIONS PROBLEM
23
Energy system: Today
Solar, 0.09
Nuclear, 8.45
Hydro, 2.45
Wind, 0.51
Geothermal 0.35
Natural Gas 23.84
Coal22.42
Biomass 3.88
Petroleum37.13
26.33
8.58
27.39
20.9
Unused Energy (Losses)
57.07
Electric Generation
39.97
12.68
Used Energy42.15
Residential11.48
Commercial8.58
Industrial23.94
Trans-portation
27.86
8.45
6.82
20.54
6.95
24
LightDuty: 17.12QFreight: 7.55QAviation: 3.19Q
Energy System: Transport goes electric!
Warren Buffet's MidAmerican Energy Holdings bought 9.9%
of BYD for $232 million.
World's first all-electric locomotive has over 1,000
batteries, runs 24 hours on a single charge.
A modified French high-speed train has set a new world
speed record for a train on conventional rails of 357 mph.
Solar, 1.0
Nuclear, 15
Hydro, 2.95
Wind, 8.1
Geothermal 3.04
Natural Gas 23.84
Old Coal10.42
Biomass 3.88
Petroleum15.13
26.33
8.58
25.7
8.5
Unused Energy (Losses)
43.0
Electric Generation
49.72
12.68
Used Energy42.15
Residential11.48
Commercial8.58
Industrial23.94
Trans-portation
15.5
15
6.82
20.54
6.95
A possible future
INCREASE Non-CO2
12Q to 30Q
USE 11Q
Electric for transportation
4.5Q
26
IGCC, 3
RE
DU
CE
CO
AL
21Q
TO
12Q
REDUCE PETROLEUM 37Q15Q LightDuty: 8.56QFreight: 3.75QAviation: 3.19Q
Infrastructure planning: Environmental Impacts
22Quads Petroleum reduction×156.4lbs/MBTU*0.4535 =1560 MMT CO2
12Q Old Coal reduction×212.7lbs/MBTU*0.4535 =1157 MMT CO2
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CO2 REDUCTION= 2717 MMT CO2
If we achieve this worldwide by 2035, there is a 75% chance of not exceeding the 2 degree guardrail.
%3.377282
2717%100
Total US 2007 GHG
27
Infrastructure planning: Unit Costs
28
Technology Overnight cost $/kW Prod cost $/MWhr(Fuel costs +
environmental cost*)Solar thermal 5021 0
Solar PV 6038 0
Nuclear 3318 2.00
Wind onshore 1923 0
Wind offshore 3851 0
Geothermal 4000 0
Coal conventional 2058 2.95
Clean coal (IGCC+seq) 3500 4.50
*Environmental cost s assumed to be $1.5/MWhr, for nuclear, $3/MWhr for conventional coal, and $1.5/MWhr for clean coal.
Infrastructure planning: Solution Cost
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Technology Additional capacity, GW
Trillion dollars
Overnight cost Change in annual fuel cost
Solar thermal 65.5 0.329 0
Solar PV 58.9 0.356 0
Nuclear 60.9 0.202 +0.0038
Wind onshore 630 1.211 0
Wind offshore 80 0.307 0
Geothermal 106 0.181 0
Coal conventional Reduced 0 -0.0053
Clean coal (IGCC+seq) 29.5 0.103 +0.0010
Elec. Transprt. - 1.0 -0.264
TOTALS 1031 3.7 -0.264
Infrastructure planning: Solution explanation
Why do we reduce production cost and emissions?
30
Because we reduced the use of combustion!
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NUCLEAR
Infrastructure planning: more questions
GEOTHERMALSOLAR
WindBIOMASS
CLEAN-FOSSIL
Where, when, & how to interconnect?
31
Conclusions
32
1. Wind resource not large player today.2. Legislative landscape intent on changing that.3. US wind energy potential: could supply 2ב08
total (100Q) energy consumption.4. Wind must be a major player in economic
solutions to global warming.5. 710 GW of wind by 2035, plus a little of all
other non-CO2 resources, represents US contribution towards a feasible solution to global warming.