natural hazards, cutting edge knowledge and societal...
TRANSCRIPT
Natural Hazards, Cutting Edge Knowledge and Societal Benefits
Graciano P. Yumul Jr.
Department of Science and Technology
National Institute of Geological Sciences
College of Science, UP Diliman120
o125
o
10o
15o
SouthChina Sea
PhilippineSea
Sulu Sea
SeaCelebes
2006 Guinsaugon, Southern Leyte
2003
2006
2006 Legaspi, Albay
2008 Masbate, Masbate
Source: Masbate LGU
2009 Binga Road, Benguet
2009 Halsema Road, Benguet
2011 St. Bernard, So.Leyte
2011 Oas, Albay
10AM 18 Oct. 2010
MTSAT
image
© PAGASA, 2010
2011 Cold Front
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/
anomnight.current.gif
2009 El Niño
2010La Niña
Two Types of El Niño Southern Oscillation
• Eastern Pacific; Canonical; Conventional;
Cold Tongue
• Central Pacific; Dateline; Modoki; Warm
Pool(Yeh et al. 2009; Kug et al. 2009)
El Niño Southern Oscillation
• 2009-2011 ENSO – Central Pacific (CP)
type
• In a warming world, more CP-type ENSO
expected(Lee & McPhaden 2010; Di Lorenzo et al. 2010)
El Niño Southern Oscillation
• Anomalies:
- Prolonged NE Monsoon
- Presence of Cold Front
- Low Pressure Areas south of
Mindanao
- Enhanced rain in Visayas-Mindanao
El Niño Southern Oscillation
What to expect?
• Wet summer
• More tropical cyclones than 2010
• Stronger tropical cyclones
December Rainfall
January Rainfall
Precipitation Data
• December 2010 and January 2011 rainfall
data = 2005 data
• January 2011 precipitation strongest
• Stronger precipitation increasing in
frequency(Lee & McPhaden 2010; Di Lorenzo et al. 2010)
Landslides and Water
• High amount of water in pores of slope
beds = drive acceleration of landslides and
entrainment of additional slope materials
• Same results with entirely dry granular
materials
• Cohesive effect of low water content on
granular materials important(Mangeney 2011; Iverson et al 2011)
2005-2009 Weather-related Disasters
• Drought = 1%
• Mass movement = 4%
• Flood = 37%
• Storm = 58%
(OFDA/CRED; Israel 2010)
2007 Central Luzon
2008 Iloilo
Source: DOST VI
2009 Botolan, Zambales
2010 Pangasinan
2010 San Roque Dam, Pangasinan
CAGAYAN
RIVER BASIN
PAMPANGA
RIVER BASIN
AGNO RIVER
BASIN
MAGAT DAM
AMBUKLAO DAM
BINGA DAM
SAN ROQUE DAM
IPO DAM
ANGAT DAM
PANTABANGAN DAM
Magat dam -
Isabela
Pantabangan
dam – Nueva
Ecija
Angat & Ipo
dams -
Bulacan
San Roque
dam -
Pangasinan
Ambuklao &
Binga dams -
Benguet
Location of monitored
dams in Luzon
GPS SURVEY OF PFZ
DRM Cycle
Summary
• Extreme weather event not needed.
• Too much water in the atmosphere.
• Changes in climate stop development.
• Creeping disaster is a reality.
• Science must benefit Society.
The Millennium Development Goals (8)
Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
Goal 4: Reduce child mortality
Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women
Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education
Goal 5: Improve maternal health
Goal 8: Develop a Global Partnership for Development
Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability
Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases
The Millennium Development Goals (8)