Nature of Crises

• An emotionally stressful event or situation involving an impending, abrupt, and decisive change

• Where there is a natural tendency to view a crisis as bad, crises are more precisely defined as situations that can turn out bad

• Law enforcement typically face one of three types of crises:♦ Natural Disasters - fires, floods, earthquakes, etc♦ Mechanical - railroad derailments, airplane crashes,

hazmat spills, etc♦ Adversarial - snipers, barricaded suspects, riots,

hostage situations, etc

What is a Crisis?14

• Always entail Risk♦ Personal - physical or emotional harm, career hardships♦ Risk to Others - peril to subordinates or bystanders♦ Organizational - loss of equipment, assets or prestige

• Atmosphere of Uncertainty♦ Information will be incomplete, confusing, ambiguous,

unreliable and sometimes even conflicting

• Time Sensitive♦ May be time competitive

• Potential Severe Consequences

• Human Factor is always present and influential

Five Distinct Factors Present in Every Crisis?13

• Countless factors impinge on tactical situations, thus every commander is forced to accept some degree of risk♦ Commanders attempt to reduce risk by seeking better,

more timely, and more accurate information

• Since the time that is necessary to approach certainty is never available in tactical operations, the organization which is attempting to intervene must react in one of two ways:♦ Either increase its information gathering and

processing capability Or operate on the basis of less information

Accepting Risk12

• Deterministic Approach♦ A centralized approach which advocates remedies

such as adding more personnel, another headquarters, faster computers, and the like

♦ Operational skills are viewed as a science where results are highly predictable

Dealing with Uncertainty11

• Probabilistic Approach♦ A decentralized approach which requires the

acceptance of more uncertainty and ambiguity

♦ Operational skills are viewed as more of an art

Dealing with Uncertainty10

• Modern Approach (Moderate Approach)♦ Supports a position somewhere between the

two extremes

♦ Employs a professionally trained staff to gather and analyze data and make informed recommendations

Dealing with Uncertainty9

• Tactical responses are always human activities♦ Any attempt at removing or ignoring the human

dimension is courting disaster

• Many factors will influence the human dimension, such as:♦ Training, education, experience, maturity, emotion,

prejudice, discipline, fatigue, temperament, etc♦ These factors are always present,

always interact with one another,and always affect the outcome

The Human Dimension8

• Crisis Driven• Task Oriented• Self-Evolving• Time Sensitive• Composite• Temporary

Organization

Emergency

EMON

Emerging Multi-Organizational Networks (EMONs)

7

• Misplaced Confidence• Ignored or Unrecognized

Influences• Unprepared for Command

♦ Failure to Learn♦ Failure to Anticipate♦ Failure to Adapt

Courting Disaster6

• “It can’t happen here!”

• “It won’t happen to me!”

• “The odds are in our favor.”

• “We can handle it.”

Hope is a great companion, but a poor planner

Misplaced Confidence5

Branch Davidians

• Neglecting or ignoringprevious lessons

• Creeping Missions &Drifting Standards

“Learn from the mistakes of others. You’ll never live long enough to make them all yourself”!

Failure to Learn4

Failure to Learn• Tactics practiced as a “skill set”

rather than an intuitive application of “tried and true” principles

• Failure to objectively critique

“We confuse good luck and good tactics.”

3

• Lack of Adequate Planning

• Lack of Timely Preparation

• Incremental Decision Making

1992 Los Angeles Riots

Failure to Anticipate2

Questions?