navy tropical meteorology research
DESCRIPTION
Navy Tropical Meteorology Research. Dr. Ronald J. Ferek , ONR. Fleet priority since WWII Establishment of JTWC in 1959 ONR program thrust since 1980 1984: goal set by CINCPACFLT - “Reduce 72h track error to 150nm” Late 1980’s-AF cut recon in W. Pacific - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Navy Tropical
Meteorology
Research
Dr. Ronald J. Ferek, ONR
2
• Fleet priority since WWII• Establishment of JTWC in 1959• ONR program thrust since 1980 • 1984: goal set by CINCPACFLT - “Reduce 72h track error to 150nm”
• Late 1980’s-AF cut recon in W. Pacific- Emphasis on quantitative satellite observations; mitigated impact
of the loss of in-situ data
• Previous (1990’s) emphasis on track - Met 1984 goal in 2002
• Recent program focus - Coupling between ocean & atmosphere (CBLAST DRI)
- Storm-scale processes and ocean impact (two new DRI’s: TCS-08, ITOP)
History and Recent Program Focus
3
• TCS-08: “The Impact of Storm-Scale Processes on the Predictability of Western Pacific Typhoons”– Problem: Cannot predict the evolution of tropical disturbances
over the western Pacific (formation, intensity changes, outer wind structure, etc.)
– Collab. with THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC)• Collaboration between ONR, NRL, NSF, USAF, ARL, NAVOCEANO, and EU,
JMA, CMA, NTU, KMA, CNES, DLR, etc. as part of the T-PARC project
• ITOP: “Characterizing Impact Of Typhoons On The Western Pacific Ocean”– Focus on improved prediction of TC impact on ocean waves &
mixed layer
– Improve representation of wave-induced mixing in upper ocean
Recent TC Research Initiatives
Navy Man-Years vs. Detailed Research
4
Intensity / Structure
Track Genesis QPF Surge
[Seasonal]
Model Development
Observations
5
Navy Man-Years vs Research Category
59%
36%
5%
Total Man-Years: 50
Navy Man-Years Mapped to JTWC Priorities
Intensity
Change
Storm Surge
Observations
Genesis
Size/Structure
Stat Aids
Fcst Efficiency
Track Fcst
Wind Analysis
Model Res vs
Ensembles
QPFRadar/Sat. Data
Seasonal Progs
SST Gradients
TC Research Aligned with Operational Priorities
7
• Track errors will continue to improve as global model skill increases- Assimilation of new sources of remote sensing data should help,
as will ocean observing system
- Profiling floats/drifters should be considered as part of routine TC recon.
• Current intensity prediction lacks skill:- Need to treat as a coupled problem
• A coupled atmosphere/wave/ocean mesoscale modeling system at sub-10km resolution is feasible- Improved understanding of heat, moisture and momentum fluxes
bridged a significant knowledge gap
- Needed to address genesis, intensity changes, structure and asymmetries, ocean impacts and improved wave/surge prediction
Future Research Directions
8
Summary
• Navy has a long-standing history of tropical meteorology research – Basic > Applied– Topics focused on Naval requirements– Initiative process emphasizes research on important knowledge
gaps
• Current Navy emphasis– Structure (wind field / sea height), genesis, intensity changes,
physics coupled with the ocean– Emphasis on remote sensing vs. in-situ observing technologies– Exploring the use of UUV’s and autonomous vehicles for ocean
observing– High-resolution coupled mesoscale model (COAMPS-TC) for
structure and intensity prediction